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***Ben Carson presidential campaign headquarters*** (1 Viewer)

sublimeone said:
Skoo said:
sublimeone said:
Some interesting polling data on Carson in SC: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ben-carson-beating-trump-in-south-carolina-for-first-time/article/2575934

He leads the field at 28%, Trump follows closely behind at 27%. But if voters over 50 (racists) are eliminated Carson dominates with 39% support.
Click to expand...
Luckily for all of us, neither stands a chance in he** of beating Hillary next November.
Click to expand...
You sure about that? Polling data suggests otherwise. Carson was largely unknown and to a certain extent is still unknown relative to Trump. The more people hear his story and get to know him the stronger he polls. That what the last week's character assassination was all about. The left was largely ignoring Carson up until polling data started showing his strength against Hillary specifically.

A new national poll shows nearly every major Republican candidate beating Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election -- and shows Ben Carson leading by a resounding 10-point margin: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/11/04/carson-other-gop-candidates-top-clinton-in-latest-national-poll/
Click to expand...
And yet - and again - Vegas odds do not support this. Vegas = Truth Serum. As I mentioned the last time it was brought up that Carson or any Republican has a 'good chance' of beating Clinton, the bookmakers who have no axe to grind do not support this. At all.

Clinton -140 (was -120 last week...she's even more heavily favored today)

Trump +600

Rubio +700

Cruz +1500

Carson +1800

I'll assume you know how odds work. Forget hypotheticals; this is reality.

 
sublimeone said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
Also, LOL at "butchering."

The internet memes, they burn!
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I don't think the right is up in arms over internet memes. The issue is when the media intentionally, through shoddy journalism, attempts to assassinate the character of conservatives. Go ahead and ridicule his life story, the pyramid comments, the paintings in his house etc... nobody cares. Attack his policy positions, his lack of experience etc... you know, legitimate things.

But the right is not going to stand by idly while the media, through concerted effort, attempt to smear an honest man.

Bernie agrees: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bernie-sanders-media-scrutiny-of-ben-carson-is-why-people-hate-politics/
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Watching Fox last night (think it was Fox) they said this is one of his problems, he really has nothing on record to vet. There's only his biography. And like Trump said, they are his words being attacked and vetted. In the words of Jeb!, "you ain't seen nothing yet".

Again, I think it was also Fox that pointed out he's always been in charged with no questions asked. In the OR, people jumped at his word. No one dared question him. Now he's completely out of his comfort zone and people are going to press him. No one's going to play nice in politics.

So far, the people who have been the harshest are Trump, Jeb & Christie. All 3 of them have basically told Carson to shut up and answer the questions. Defend his words.

 
Bernie was right about Hillary but wrong about Carson. The difference is that Carson's whole campaign is centered, not on his views about any issue in particular, but on his character as an honest outsider to the political system, with the moral integrity to fix it: a sort of Christian version of Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (except that even Mr. Smith didn't begin by running for Presidency).

More than any other candidate running (probably more than any other Presidential candidate in my lifetime with the possible exception of Pat Robertson in 1988) Ben Carson's campaign invites, even demands media

scrutiny of his past.

 
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.

 
Clifford said:
timschochet said:
The murder story is particularly compelling to religious conservatives, because Carson found redemption in Jesus Christ and reformed his life.

Strangely enough, Obama had a somewhat similar story: he was a drug user who redeemed his life and also became a Christian. But this didn't attract religious conservative sympathy for some reason.
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Right, cause you can be a murderer or rapist and all you have to say is I heart J-Dog and bam, you are a ####### awesome person.

Born-again Christianity is the ultimate denial of personal responsibility. If there is a God I hope his pen doesn't have an eraser.
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Side note - I hardly ever see Erasermate pens these days. What's up with that?

-QG

 
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.

 
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.
Click to expand...
"We're coming out, baby! Guns blazing! This is our time!"

 
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.
Click to expand...
And yet, she has American Pharoah odds to win the election in 2016....

 
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal.
Click to expand...
Is she?

 
roadkill1292 said:
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.
Click to expand...
"We're coming out, baby! Guns blazing! This is our time!"
Click to expand...
"Fundamentally transforming the United States of America!"

 
George Jefferson Airplane said:
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal.
Click to expand...
Is she?
Click to expand...
I dunno... there is this: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/hillary-clinton-email-fbi-probe-215630

 
General Malaise said:
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.
Click to expand...
And yet, she has American Pharoah odds to win the election in 2016....
Click to expand...
how much of that is tied to uncertainty of any one republican candidate emerging out of their own primary? I think it will be interesting to see how those odds change once it is settled with respect to the republican nomination. With that said I still think Carson is bat #### crazy and the current odds are pretty representative of carsons chance of winning the whole thing.
 
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.
Click to expand...
You're asking the wrong guy, as most people here know I am a Hillary fan who thinks she was an excellent Secretary of State and that the scandals are non-existent. I also like Bernie and don't believe he is a socialist; that word is misapplied including by him (though some of his ideas ARE too leftist or populist for my tastes). But put that all aside- there are no Democratic candidates for President- not Hillary, not Bernie, not any one probably since Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton over 20 years ago- that can compare to Carson, Trump, or Cruz. Not one. Right now it's an objective reality that all of the nuts are on your side of the aisle and, even worse they are leading the pack. There is no comparison.

 
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Kasich seems to me to be the best hope for republicans once the merry go round of crazies gets worn out.

 
bagger said:
General Malaise said:
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.
Click to expand...
And yet, she has American Pharoah odds to win the election in 2016....
Click to expand...
how much of that is tied to uncertainty of any one republican candidate emerging out of their own primary? I think it will be interesting to see how those odds change once it is settled with respect to the republican nomination. With that said I still think Carson is bat #### crazy and the current odds are pretty representative of carsons chance of winning the whole thing.
Click to expand...
Democrats -150

Republicans +120

Any Other Party +45000

Closer, but I disagree vehemently with the notion that Carson is polling closely with Clinton. The guys making the odds don't support that hypothetical at all and really, Sublimeone should stop with the nonsense.

 
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.
Click to expand...
:lmao:

 
General Malaise said:
bagger said:
General Malaise said:
sublimeone said:
timschochet said:
But by far the most shameful aspect of Ben Carson's campaign is that the media (and us) are forced to spend time talking about it. Nobody in their right mind, not even Ben Carson himself, thought that he would be leading the field at this point in the campaign with a significant percentage. It's an embarrassment to the country, and the blame is squarely on the base of the Republican Party who once again are demonstrating their ignorance and extremism. The conservative Tea Party base of the GOP continues to be the main wrecking force in American society.
Click to expand...
Tim, what do you think about the other side? Hillary has been an abysmal Secretary of State and is once again mired in scandal. And the other option is a self avowed socialist. I remember when any mention of the word "socialist" relative to the democrat party would get you laughed out of the room.
Click to expand...
And yet, she has American Pharoah odds to win the election in 2016....
Click to expand...
how much of that is tied to uncertainty of any one republican candidate emerging out of their own primary? I think it will be interesting to see how those odds change once it is settled with respect to the republican nomination. With that said I still think Carson is bat #### crazy and the current odds are pretty representative of carsons chance of winning the whole thing.
Click to expand...
Democrats -150

Republicans +120

Any Other Party +45000

Closer, but I disagree vehemently with the notion that Carson is polling closely with Clinton. The guys making the odds don't support that hypothetical at all and really, Sublimeone should stop with the nonsense.
Click to expand...
totally agree.
 
sublimeone said:
Skoo said:
sublimeone said:
Some interesting polling data on Carson in SC: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ben-carson-beating-trump-in-south-carolina-for-first-time/article/2575934

He leads the field at 28%, Trump follows closely behind at 27%. But if voters over 50 (racists) are eliminated Carson dominates with 39% support.
Click to expand...
Luckily for all of us, neither stands a chance in he** of beating Hillary next November.
Click to expand...
You sure about that? Polling data suggests otherwise. Carson was largely unknown and to a certain extent is still unknown relative to Trump. The more people hear his story and get to know him the stronger he polls. That what the last week's character assassination was all about. The left was largely ignoring Carson up until polling data started showing his strength against Hillary specifically.

A new national poll shows nearly every major Republican candidate beating Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election -- and shows Ben Carson leading by a resounding 10-point margin: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/11/04/carson-other-gop-candidates-top-clinton-in-latest-national-poll/
Click to expand...
I'm willing to bet you $$$ Carson will not win. You in?

 
sublimeone said:
Go ahead and ridicule his life story, the pyramid comments, the paintings in his house etc... nobody cares. Attack his policy positions, his lack of experience etc... you know, legitimate things.
Click to expand...
I don't really agree that policy positions are all that count. Part of what I want in a President is somebody who shares my public policy preferences. But a rather big part of what I want in a President is somebody who makes good practical decisions in general.

In job interviews, companies like Microsoft and Google will ask questions like "How many professional piano tuners do you estimate there are in the city of Chicago?" or "What's your estimate of the total volume of the main cabin in a 747?"

Those questions have no more to do with an applicant's prospective duties at Google than the grain-storage-capacity of the pyramids has to do with being President of the United States. But they are relevant and probative questions nonetheless because how a person works through their answer gives us some insight into how they think, how they approach problems.

Similarly, Carson's crazy statements on topics not directly relevant to public policy issues nonetheless give us some insight into his general reasoning and decision-making processes. If those processes seem ... unreliable ... I think that's a good thing to know about him before deciding how to vote.

 
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3C said:
Okay, so how many of you just googled "number of piano tuners in Chicago"?
Click to expand...
I didn't but I tried to think of how I would take a stab at it. Unfortunately I don't really have a good grasp of: 1) the population of Chicago; 2) the percentage of homes with pianos; 3) how frequently pianos typically get tuned; 4) how much it costs to tune a piano and how long it takes. I think I'd bomb on the interview.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
3C said:
Okay, so how many of you just googled "number of piano tuners in Chicago"?
Click to expand...
I didn't but I tried to think of how I would take a stab at it. Unfortunately I don't really have a good grasp of: 1) the population of Chicago; 2) the percentage of homes with pianos; 3) how frequently pianos typically get tuned; 4) how much it costs to tune a piano and how long it takes. I think I'd bomb on the interview.
Click to expand...
I'd go like this....

Chicago is, what, the 3rd or 4th largest city in the US? Ballpark guess on population is 5 Million, give or take a million, though probably give because I know New York has around 13 million.

I think but am not sure that Chicago is a highly educated city and the cold climate lends itself to indoor activities, which would include playing a musical instrument. But pianos are large and expensive, so if I had to take a guess at it, I'd say there's around 100 to 200 THOUSAND pianos in Chicago homes, schools, bars, concert halls. Using the high end of my guess of 200,000 pianos, I'll rule out 50,000 of them as perpetually out of tune and collecting dust. So 150,000 active pianos. A tuner probably needs to tune at least 10 pianos a week to support him or herself, though that's a wild guess as I have no idea what that would cost. Maybe $75-100 per piano? That's 520 pianos a year and again, I don't know how often you tune a piano, but perhaps once every 2-3 years? I do know it's a viable business as that is an occupation, so they're out there tuning 'em.

Hmmm....carry the one, round up, I'll say there are 175 piano tuners in Chicago.

 
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SO WHEN DOES GOOGLE HIRE ME????? :excited:


Fermi's Piano Tuner Problem As a lecturer, Enrico Fermi used to challenge his classes with problems that, at first glance, seemed impossible. One such problem was that of estimating the number of piano tuners in Chicago given only the population of the city. When the class returned a blank stare at their esteemed professor, he would proceed along these lines:

  1. From the almanac, we know that Chicago has a population of about 3 million people.
  2. Now, assume that an average family contains four members so that the number of families in Chicago must be about 750,000.
  3. If one in five families owns a piano, there will be 150,000 pianos in Chicago.
  4. If the average piano tuner serviced four pianos every day of the week for five days
  5. rested on weekends, and
  6. had a two week vacation during the summer,

  1. then in one year (52 weeks) he would service 1,000 pianos. 150,000/(4 x 5 x 50) = 150, so that there must be about 150 piano tuners in Chicago.
This method does not guarantee correct results; but it does establish a first estimate which might be off by no more than a factor of 2 or 3--certainly well within a factor of, say, 10. We know, for example, that we should not expect 15 piano tuners, or 1,500 piano tuners. (A factor of 10 error, by the way, is referred to as being 'to within cosmological accuracy.' Cosmologists are a somewhat different breed from physicists, evidently!!!)
Click to expand...
 
Based on Fermi's calculation, I completely underestimated the percentage of people owning pianos. I came up with 25 or so, but I was thinking closer to one in 20 families owned one. (Hope I would at least pass on the logic side though.)

 
Joe Summer said:
There is no way that there are 150,000 active pianos in Chicago. This isn't the 1950s.
Click to expand...
Up until last year, I owned a piano. I have as much musical ability as Carl Lewis. I put it on CL and sold it within a few days. There is still strong piano demand and a city like Chicago - blessed with rich musical roots - has to be lousy with pianos.

 
I was accepted into Julliard to play piano, but I decided at the time that studying ancient grain storage units was my true calling, so I declined.
 
But how many wise guys are using the front of being a "Piano Tuner"?

And how many of those "tuners" are sleeping with the fishes?

-QG

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
3C said:
Okay, so how many of you just googled "number of piano tuners in Chicago"?
Click to expand...
I didn't but I tried to think of how I would take a stab at it. Unfortunately I don't really have a good grasp of: 1) the population of Chicago; 2) the percentage of homes with pianos; 3) how frequently pianos typically get tuned; 4) how much it costs to tune a piano and how long it takes. I think I'd bomb on the interview.
Click to expand...
I went with the thought of:

*not that many people have pianos

*so little that maybe there is one piano tuner per neighborhood or ward or one for every two

*my guess would be 25

 
urbanhack said:
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
3C said:
Okay, so how many of you just googled "number of piano tuners in Chicago"?
Click to expand...
I didn't but I tried to think of how I would take a stab at it. Unfortunately I don't really have a good grasp of: 1) the population of Chicago; 2) the percentage of homes with pianos; 3) how frequently pianos typically get tuned; 4) how much it costs to tune a piano and how long it takes. I think I'd bomb on the interview.
Click to expand...
I went with the thought of:

*not that many people have pianos

*so little that maybe there is one piano tuner per neighborhood or ward or one for every two

*my guess would be 25
Click to expand...
We have a piano but we've only have had it tuned once over the past 5 years so we've probably cost a tuner his job.

 
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