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Ben Roethlisberger (1 Viewer)

EBF

Footballguy
I was pretty impressed with Ben Roethlisberger last year. In fact, I was so impressed that I drafted him in my two initial dynasty drafts since the 2004 season and overpaid dearly to acquire him in another dynasty league.

I don't think Roethlisberger is going to have an amazing 2005, but I think he's being seriously discredited as a dynasty prospect. A lot of people compare him to Troy Aikman and Tom Brady, two guys known more for their NFL accomplishments than for gaudy statistics. I can understand this. Roethlisberger wasn't much of a fantasy factor as a rookie. The main statistic that attracted attention wasn't his passing TDs, but rather his won-loss record. That's why people compare him to other unspectacular fantasy QBs who are known for winning.

I acknowledge that Roethlisberger didn't amass great totals in 2004 and that the Cowher regime hasn't been marked by a lot passing, but I still think people are way too quick to dismiss Big Ben as a dynasty prospect.

First off, I'd like to show a major distinction between Roethlisberger and Brady/Aikman. Here are their career averages:

Completion %

Troy Aikman - 61.5

Tom Brady - 61.6

Yards Per Attempt

Troy Aikman - 7.0

Tom Brady - 6.9

Attempts Per TD Pass

Troy Aikman - 28.6

Tom Brady - 20.8

Now let's look at how Roethlisberger compared as a rookie:

Ben Roethlisberger

Completion % - 66.4

Yards Per Attempt - 8.9

Attempts Per TD Pass - 17.4

His season totals blow away the career averages posted by Aikman and Brady. It's not even close. He averaged more yards per throw and it took him less throws to manufacture a passing TD.

What does this mean? Well, not much, but it suggests that Roethlisberger was more prolific on a per throw basis as a rookie than two "game-manager" type QBs to whom he's often compared. In fact, it doesn't look like he's very comparable to these two quarterbacks at all.

After establishing that Roethlisberger has been more prolific per throw than two unspectacular fantasy QBs, I thought it would be worthwhile to compare him to two spectacular fantasy QBs. Here are the career averages for Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper.

Completion %

Daunte Culpepper - 64.4

Peyton Manning - 63.5

Yards Per Attempt

Daunte Culpepper - 7.8

Peyton Manning - 7.6

Passing Attempts Per TD

Daunte Culpepper - 18.55

Peyton Manning - 17.96

As you can see, Roethlisberger's 2004 numbers surpass the career averages put forth by the top two fantasy QBs in the game. I'm not nearly dense enough to suggest that he's a better fantasy QB or that he ever will be. He played a limited number of games, he didn't throw a lot, he was mediocre in the playoffs, and he's only played for a season. Nevertheless, it certainly looks like his averages are closer to those of Manning and Culpepper than to those of Brady and Aikman.

The way I see it, Roethlisberger is the QB equivalent of a first round rookie RB who rushes for 700 yards on 120 carries in his first year. You can't say that he put forward the totals of a fantasy stud, but he had elite averages and showed that he could be a statistical monster if given more opportunities.

That's where one of the big caveats lies. Will he get more chances to throw? The answer seems to be yes.

If you look further back into Cowher's history, he has shown that he will allow his QBs to throw plenty. Neil O'Donnell played 54 games as a Steeler under Bill Cowher. He attempted 1585 passes during those games. That's an average of 29.352 passing attempts/game. That averages out to 470 attempts over the course of a sixteen game season.

470 isn't a ton, but it should be enough to allow Roethlisberger to be a viable fantasy starter in future seasons. I understand that the Steelers are built to be a ball control team. Nevertheless, I think it would be a big mistake to discredit the top rookie QB in recent memory. I certainly don't expect him to maintain his insane averages over the course of his career. However, I don't think it's crazy to believe that he has a chance to be a major statistical producer in future seasons. Tommy Maddox threw the ball 519 times as Cowher's quarterback in 2003. If Ben Roethlisberger ever gets the opportunity to throw that much then he could put uop staggering numbers.

Anyhow, I just wanted to point out a misconception. I don't expect Roethlisberger to have a great fantasy season in 2005, but I think people who compare him to Brady and Aikman aren't looking deep enough. He's not in an ideal system for our purposes, but he's shown flashes of immense ability and I think he's definitely a top 8 dynasty QB. It's scary to think about how good he might be if he improves (which many young QBs do).

 
Yes, I think has the tools and the potential to be that good. It isnt going to happen, FF-wise, for some time though. The spitter knows he has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and he will continue to run a conservative ball control running offense for the short term. As long as Staley and Bettis can grind it out, the Steelers offense will do just what it did last year. I have Rothlisberger in my most important dynasty league. many have made trade offers, I'm not selling. It wasnt that long ago that Maddox was airing it out. It may take 2, even 3 years, before that Steeler D goes from steel to tin..... when it does, if it does, Rothlisberger should be able to sling it with the best in the NFL.

 
Yes, I think has the tools and the potential to be that good. It isnt going to happen, FF-wise, for some time though. The spitter knows he has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and he will continue to run a conservative ball control running offense for the short term. As long as Staley and Bettis can grind it out, the Steelers offense will do just what it did last year. I have Rothlisberger in my most important dynasty league. many have made trade offers, I'm not selling. It wasnt that long ago that Maddox was airing it out. It may take 2, even 3 years, before that Steeler D goes from steel to tin..... when it does, if it does, Rothlisberger should be able to sling it with the best in the NFL.
That's pretty close to my thinking. In the meantime I wouldn;t be surprised if he becomes a fringe starter ala Brady.
 
Donovan McNabb, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Steve Young and Vinny Testaverde have all put up top five fantasy seasons while playing on a team that ranked top five in points allowed that same year. In 1996 the Packers ranked 1st in PA, 1st in YA, and Favre ranked 1st.

 
Agreed, which is why I took Aaron Rodgers at 1.16 in my dynasty. Having Ben in my hip pocket is nice, but he is not a FF starter until things change in iron town.

 
Agreed, which is why I took Aaron Rodgers at 1.16 in my dynasty. Having Ben in my hip pocket is nice, but he is not a FF starter until things change in iron town.
Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, and Joey Harrington were all coached by Jeff Tedford. Tedford also coached aaron rodgers....you better hope roethlisberger turns out to be a very good ff qb.
 
Im shocked you would attempt to holda Rookie in the same Breath as Manning or Culpepper. Your comparing him to guys who have played 8 and 7 Seasons ?! Heres the 2004 stats , if were using the 1 year Roths did his thing lets do the same one year for Manning and Culpepper.....---------------------------- Com Att Pct Yds Ypa Lng TD TD%P. Manning QB, IND 336 497 67.6 4557 9.17 80 49 9.9 D. Culpepper QB, MIN 379 548 69.2 4717 8.61 82 39 7.1 B. Roethlisberger QB, PIT 196 295 66.4 2621 8.89 58 17 5.8Yes his % and ypa are close but take note of the attempts.., thats a big difference . Its called consistency. Obviously the more passes you throw the harder it is to keep those %'s and Avgs would you not agree. Now lets see roths have those stats over 7 or 8 years then we'll talk. If a Qb comes in a game throws 1 pass and its for a TD , his stats are gonna look sick. but you dont turn around and compare him to people who are in the same com % range that had 300 attempts right? I think thats whats going on here. IF hes you personal favorite by all means enlighten us but dont start throwing Fantasy MVPS names around.

 
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Yes, I think has the tools and the potential to be that good. It isnt going to happen, FF-wise, for some time though. The spitter knows he has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and he will continue to run a conservative ball control running offense for the short term. does, Rothlisberger should be able to sling it with the best in the NFL.
BINGOThis is why you will not see Big Ben on any of my rosters. He could easily end up having an Aikman type of career...HOF QB, but medicore stats.

 
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EBF, I agree with you. On top of being held back as a rookie, IIRC PIT had the league's best rushing offense and the league's best defense last year. Those two things won't always be the case, so Ben is bound to get chances to open it up. After having one of the best rookie seasons ever for a QB, he showed that he will be able to excel when it does open up.

 
he wasnt underrated in gamebreakers....he was the 10th QB off the board at 6.05 (pick 75 - 14 team league) right after brees and before aaron brooks.the problem with big ben in dynasty leagues right now is that there is a huge 2nd tier at QB - bulger, vick, palmer, brees, brady, hasselbeck, green, collins, delhomme, brooks, leftwich, plummer, griese(?)... all of these guys are pretty close fantasy wise in the near term. you can make an argument that pennington and mcnair will join that group if they stay healthy to make the tier even larger. meanwhile, ben will probably fall short of tier 2 numbers again this year because of the steelers ball control game... what all this means is that if you want to stay competitive at QB, if you draft Ben, you also need to draft another 2nd tier guy and be patient... I would think the best strategy would be pairing him with an older cheaper guy like Green or McNair - or possibly even Warner if you think he'll click in arizona.so based on what i saw in the last initial dynasty draft i did, and the fact that you probably need to use another 7th-10th round pick on a QB if you take Ben, im not sure that he's underrated. now, if he lasts to QB17 or 18 in your initial dynasty draft, then hell yeah, he's being underrated.

 
Yes, I think has the tools and the potential to be that good. It isnt going to happen, FF-wise, for some time though. The spitter knows he has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and he will continue to run a conservative ball control running offense for the short term. does, Rothlisberger should be able to sling it with the best in the NFL.
BINGOThis is why you will not see Big Ben on any of my rosters. He could easily end up having an Aikman type of career...HOF QB, but medicore stats.
EVER :shock: He could also be a QB that puts up huge totals. When he played for Miami, he tossed the rock around A LOT. A 4 td Sat. afternoon was nothing for him. It was only his rookie year and I thought he played fantastically.

If Pittsburgh's defense doesn't play as well and he's asked to throw the ball more often, Ben will be up to that challenge.

 
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Alot of guys I'd want ahead of him, redraft or dynasty.

Yes, he had a very nice rookie regular season, but is he going to be that QB, or the guy we saw in the playoffs >>

vs Jets: 17-30, 181 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 57.8 rating

vs Pats: 14-24, 226 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, 78.1 rating

or perhaps something in between ...

 
Alot of guys I'd want ahead of him, redraft or dynasty.

Yes, he had a very nice rookie regular season, but is he going to be that QB, or the guy we saw in the playoffs >>

vs Jets: 17-30, 181 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 57.8 rating

vs Pats: 14-24, 226 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, 78.1 rating

or perhaps something in between ...
Well you have to keep in mind that he was a rookie QB........and rookie Qb's for the most part don't even play usually. So this guy played at a high level for most of the season and we're not giving him a shot to improve.Shoot, at WR we give guys coming over there 2nd and 3rd years tons of room for improvement and I'm giving Ben room heading into his 2nd year.

I am not predicting a passing championship but I am predicting better overall numbers than last year.

Keep in mind that Rivers was drafted in front of Ben and we have no idea about that guy still. That shows you just how far along Ben is in his development compared to him and to think he's not going to improve off of last year is a mistake.

 
Alot of guys I'd want ahead of him, redraft or dynasty.

Yes, he had a very nice rookie regular season, but is he going to be that QB, or the guy we saw in the playoffs >>

vs Jets:  17-30, 181 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 57.8 rating

vs Pats:  14-24, 226 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, 78.1 rating

or perhaps something in between ...
Well you have to keep in mind that he was a rookie QB........and rookie Qb's for the most part don't even play usually. So this guy played at a high level for most of the season and we're not giving him a shot to improve.Shoot, at WR we give guys coming over there 2nd and 3rd years tons of room for improvement and I'm giving Ben room heading into his 2nd year.

I am not predicting a passing championship but I am predicting better overall numbers than last year.

Keep in mind that Rivers was drafted in front of Ben and we have no idea about that guy still. That shows you just how far along Ben is in his development compared to him and to think he's not going to improve off of last year is a mistake.
What part of "Yes, he had a very nice rookie regular season, but is he going to be that QB, or the guy we saw in the playoffs" did you not understand ? :shrug:
 
I was pretty impressed with Ben Roethlisberger last year. In fact, I was so impressed that I drafted him in my two initial dynasty drafts since the 2004 season and overpaid dearly to acquire him in another dynasty league.

I don't think Roethlisberger is going to have an amazing 2005, but I think he's being seriously discredited as a dynasty prospect. A lot of people compare him to Troy Aikman and Tom Brady, two guys known more for their NFL accomplishments than for gaudy statistics. I can understand this. Roethlisberger wasn't much of a fantasy factor as a rookie. The main statistic that attracted attention wasn't his passing TDs, but rather his won-loss record. That's why people compare him to other unspectacular fantasy QBs who are known for winning.

I acknowledge that Roethlisberger didn't amass great totals in 2004 and that the Cowher regime hasn't been marked by a lot passing, but I still think people are way too quick to dismiss Big Ben as a dynasty prospect.

First off, I'd like to show a major distinction between Roethlisberger and Brady/Aikman. Here are their career averages:

Completion %

Troy Aikman - 61.5

Tom Brady - 61.6

Yards Per Attempt

Troy Aikman - 7.0

Tom Brady - 6.9

Attempts Per TD Pass

Troy Aikman - 28.6

Tom Brady - 20.8

Now let's look at how Roethlisberger compared as a rookie:

Ben Roethlisberger

Completion % - 66.4

Yards Per Attempt - 8.9

Attempts Per TD Pass - 17.4

His season totals blow away the career averages posted by Aikman and Brady. It's not even close. He averaged more yards per throw and it took him less throws to manufacture a passing TD.

What does this mean? Well, not much, but it suggests that Roethlisberger was more prolific on a per throw basis as a rookie than two "game-manager" type QBs to whom he's often compared. In fact, it doesn't look like he's very comparable to these two quarterbacks at all.

After establishing that Roethlisberger has been more prolific per throw than two unspectacular fantasy QBs, I thought it would be worthwhile to compare him to two spectacular fantasy QBs. Here are the career averages for Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper.

Completion %

Daunte Culpepper - 64.4

Peyton Manning - 63.5

Yards Per Attempt

Daunte Culpepper - 7.8

Peyton Manning - 7.6

Passing Attempts Per TD

Daunte Culpepper - 18.55

Peyton Manning - 17.96

As you can see, Roethlisberger's 2004 numbers surpass the career averages put forth by the top two fantasy QBs in the game. I'm not nearly dense enough to suggest that he's a better fantasy QB or that he ever will be. He played a limited number of games, he didn't throw a lot, he was mediocre in the playoffs, and he's only played for a season. Nevertheless, it certainly looks like his averages are closer to those of Manning and Culpepper than to those of Brady and Aikman.

The way I see it, Roethlisberger is the QB equivalent of a first round rookie RB who rushes for 700 yards on 120 carries in his first year. You can't say that he put forward the totals of a fantasy stud, but he had elite averages and showed that he could be a statistical monster if given more opportunities.

That's where one of the big caveats lies. Will he get more chances to throw? The answer seems to be yes.

If you look further back into Cowher's history, he has shown that he will allow his QBs to throw plenty. Neil O'Donnell played 54 games as a Steeler under Bill Cowher. He attempted 1585 passes during those games. That's an average of 29.352 passing attempts/game. That averages out to 470 attempts over the course of a sixteen game season.

470 isn't a ton, but it should be enough to allow Roethlisberger to be a viable fantasy starter in future seasons. I understand that the Steelers are built to be a ball control team. Nevertheless, I think it would be a big mistake to discredit the top rookie QB in recent memory. I certainly don't expect him to maintain his insane averages over the course of his career. However, I don't think it's crazy to believe that he has a chance to be a major statistical producer in future seasons. Tommy Maddox threw the ball 519 times as Cowher's quarterback in 2003. If Ben Roethlisberger ever gets the opportunity to throw that much then he could put uop staggering numbers.

Anyhow, I just wanted to point out a misconception. I don't expect Roethlisberger to have a great fantasy season in 2005, but I think people who compare him to Brady and Aikman aren't looking deep enough. He's not in an ideal system for our purposes, but he's shown flashes of immense ability and I think he's definitely a top 8 dynasty QB. It's scary to think about how good he might be if he improves (which many young QBs do).
:goodposting: You let the cat out of the bag! but thats ok, I already drafted. :D I agree with you 100% about the misconception surrounding him. Great job with the stat comparisions. I think his numbers could increase significantly this year! He will have more of the playbook to work with. He is gonna surprise some people with FF #'s down the road.

 
Well you have to keep in mind that he was a rookie QB........and rookie Qb's for the most part don't even play usually. So this guy played at a high level for most of the season and we're not giving him a shot to improve.
Agreed. He put up one of the best rookie QB seasons EVER but he's getting knocked for PIT's conservative offense.
 
I like Big Ben a lot. I have tried to get him in my dynasty league. I think he will be very good. However, I think the numbers you post EBF will change. The reason his percentage is so high and his ypa are so high is because he is rarely asked to throw. That sets up play action, particularly in the red zone. His tds per attempt is so high because they run the ball between the 20's so much. His production will definitely get better, but as it does, I would be shocked if you saw similiar YPA or td's per attempt.

 
Im shocked you would attempt to holda Rookie in the same Breath as Manning or Culpepper. Your comparing him to guys who have played 8 and 7 Seasons ?! Heres the 2004 stats , if were using the 1 year Roths did his thing lets do the same one year for Manning and Culpepper.....

---------------------------- Com Att Pct Yds Ypa Lng TD TD%

P. Manning QB, IND 336 497 67.6 4557 9.17 80 49 9.9

D. Culpepper QB, MIN 379 548 69.2 4717 8.61 82 39 7.1

B. Roethlisberger QB, PIT 196 295 66.4 2621 8.89 58 17 5.8

Yes his % and ypa are close but take note of the attempts.., thats a big difference . Its called consistency. Obviously the more passes you throw the harder it is to keep those %'s and Avgs would you not agree. Now lets see roths have those stats over 7 or 8 years then we'll talk. If a Qb comes in a game throws 1 pass and its for a TD , his stats are gonna look sick. but you dont turn around and compare him to people who are in the same com % range that had 300 attempts right? I think thats whats going on here. IF hes you personal favorite by all means enlighten us but dont start throwing Fantasy MVPS names around.
This is a great point that has yet to be addressed by the guys high on Big Ben as a fantasy option. The reason guys like Manning and Cpep are elite fantasy QBs is becasue they can sustain those lofty averages and oint totals of large sample sizes. Ben has yet to do this and it is typical that it becomse harder to play that good for extended periods of time.
 
I think the Steelers ran as much as they did last year for two reasons. One, because the offensive line was healthy and playing well. In 2005, they'll be replacing the RG and RT from that line. The other was because they DID scale back the offense somewhat to protect Ben from making rookie mistakes. They didn't ask him to win games, but he was very, very efficient when he dropped back to pass. He was the sole reason the Steelers beat the Giants on a day the defense didn't show up in week 15, and he was very good in picking apart the Ravens' defense in week 16.Now that Ben has a season under his belt, I do expect the Steelers to pass more in 2005 and open up the playbook a lot more than in 2004. If and only if the Steelers are able to utilize Heath Miller as a receiver, I can say that the receiving group will be improved in 2005 over what it was in 2004. The receivers won't be as threatening, but the addition of Miller in the middle of the field could give Ben another reliable target to throw to and open things up for quicker guys like Randle El and Wilson.Cowher likes to run, and that's well known. He's also proven to be a coach that WILL adapt to what he sees as his team's strength as evidenced by the 5 WR sets he used with Neil O'Donnell to get to the Super Bowl and the way he opened things up with Maddox a few years ago. If Ben proves that he can gun the ball around, I don't think Cowher will be afraid to let him do it while still maintaining a good running attack.

 
As for the people who point to his running game as a detriment to his numbers, I disagree. Good QBs have good running games to take pressure off them, but still find a way to put up numbers. Any QB will struggle if defenses don't at least respect the running game. Manning LOVES play action with Edge, and I'd say Culpepper was the exception because he had Moss to throw to. If the Vikings don't figure out a way to consistently run the ball this year, Culpepper is going to find it a lot harder to throw like he did without Moss running routes for him.The great play of the defense is what can limit Roethlisberger's upside for the time being. We'll see if that repeats itself, and if it doesn't, you can expect a nice increase in Roethlisberger's production.

 
Cowher likes to run, and that's well known. He's also proven to be a coach that WILL adapt to what he sees as his team's strength as evidenced by the 5 WR sets he used with Neil O'Donnell to get to the Super Bowl and the way he opened things up with Maddox a few years ago. If Ben proves that he can gun the ball around, I don't think Cowher will be afraid to let him do it while still maintaining a good running attack.
Good point. Another reason to like Big Ben's FF potential.
 
I like Big Ben a lot. I have tried to get him in my dynasty league. I think he will be very good. However, I think the numbers you post EBF will change. The reason his percentage is so high and his ypa are so high is because he is rarely asked to throw. That sets up play action, particularly in the red zone. His tds per attempt is so high because they run the ball between the 20's so much. His production will definitely get better, but as it does, I would be shocked if you saw similiar YPA or td's per attempt.
:goodposting: Also, it is worth noting that Burress averaged 19.9 yards per catch last season. Obviously, he and Ben were able to hook up on medium to deep passes fairly often, and that helped boost Ben's ypa. Will ARE or someone else be able to fill that role this year? Ward and ARE averaged 12.6 and 14.0 ypc respectively last season.

In dynasty leagues there are many different approaches. IMO it is very difficult to project more than 3 years down the road, so I rarely make decisions based on a longer time period. I don't foresee Roethlisberger being a top fantasy QB in the next 3 years, thus I don't think he is underrated.

I know other people tend to take a longer view, and I can understand why they may rate Ben higher than I do.

 
Another thing to remember is that while it's well known that Cowher likes to run the ball and control the clock (most coaches do, really), he's never had a QB with the ability to throw the ball like Ben can. Not even remotely close.During Cowher's tenure as head coach, he's had a revolving door of QBs named O'Donnell, Tomczak, Stewart, and Maddox. Even though he likes to run the ball, his offense's talent normally dictated that he SHOULD run the ball and it's hard to say what he'll do now that he has a strong-armed, accurate QB who can make plays and lead an offense.

 
If you look further back into Cowher's history, he has shown that he will allow his QBs to throw plenty. Neil O'Donnell played 54 games as a Steeler under Bill Cowher. He attempted 1585 passes during those games. That's an average of 29.352 passing attempts/game. That averages out to 470 attempts over the course of a sixteen game season.

...Tommy Maddox threw the ball 519 times as Cowher's quarterback in 2003...
O'Donnell finished as QB16, QB11, QB20, QB21 from 1992-1995 under Cowher. Not a viable fantasy starter unless you play in a huge league.In 1996, Tomczak was the leading QB and finished as QB21.

Kordell finished as QB2 in 1997, but that was mostly because of his 88/476/11 rushing. He also finished as QB9 in 2001, when he had 96/537/5 rushing. In between he finished as QB16, QB31, and QB17 from 1998-2000.

You also mentioned Maddox. He finished as QB22 in 2002 and QB16 in 2003, his two years as the Steelers' primary starter.

So, while it is true that Cowher has adapted and passed more at times, it is not true that he has produced any viable starting fantasy QBs other than Stewart. Stewart was worthy for two years thanks to his rushing totals.

Unless you think Roethlisberger is going to compile Kordell-like rushing totals, there is no favorable comparison to be gained from Cowher's history.

You can certainly take the position that Roethlisberger is better than Cowher's previous QBs, but that remains to be proven (EDIT: from a fantasy perspective, at least) at this point.

 
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If you look further back into Cowher's history, he has shown that he will allow his QBs to throw plenty. Neil O'Donnell played 54 games as a Steeler under Bill Cowher. He attempted 1585 passes during those games. That's an average of 29.352 passing attempts/game. That averages out to 470 attempts over the course of a sixteen game season.

...Tommy Maddox threw the ball 519 times as Cowher's quarterback in 2003...
O'Donnell finished as QB16, QB11, QB20, QB21 from 1992-1995 under Cowher. Not a viable fantasy starter unless you play in a huge league.In 1996, Tomczak was the leading QB and finished as QB21.

Kordell finished as QB2 in 1997, but that was mostly because of his 88/476/11 rushing. He also finished as QB9 in 2001, when he had 96/537/5 rushing. In between he finished as QB16, QB31, and QB17 from 1998-2000.

You also mentioned Maddox. He finished as QB22 in 2002 and QB16 in 2003, his two years as the Steelers' primary starter.

So, while it is true that Cowher has adapted and passed more at times, it is not true that he has produced any viable starting fantasy QBs other than Stewart. Stewart was worthy for two years thanks to his rushing totals.

Unless you think Roethlisberger is going to compile Kordell-like rushing totals, there is no favorable comparison to be gained from Cowher's history.

You can certainly take the position that Roethlisberger is better than Cowher's previous QBs, but that remains to be proven (EDIT: from a fantasy perspective, at least) at this point.
Ben is a much better QB then all of the guys mentioned above though. Numbers are great, but at some point you have to look at the talent and ability of the players in question. Ben may not run like Kordell (who was one of the best running QBs in the last 20 yrs IMO) but he creates plays with his legs and arm. Keeps plays alive and runs when he needs to. Mainly though, like other great QBs and unlike Kordell, he runs to try and create more time to pass the ball. Not just gain yds on the ground.
 
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I don't think anyone expects Ben's YPA to stay in the 8's. Its hard to project 1 year down the road. As for my projections on Ben there is more to it than the numbers posted by EBF.Poise in the pocketStrong armCan make all the throwsGood mobilityleadershipIntellegenceGreat sizeand he is just learning.

 
:goodposting:

Also, it is worth noting that Burress averaged 19.9 yards per catch last season. Obviously, he and Ben were able to hook up on medium to deep passes fairly often, and that helped boost Ben's ypa. Will ARE or someone else be able to fill that role this year? Ward and ARE averaged 12.6 and 14.0 ypc respectively last season.
I'll take this... Cedrick Wilson, Fred Gibson and I believe Zamir Cobb will all help fill the downfield role that Burress had. That doesn't even take into consideration Heath Miller's potential contribution to stretching the field, especially down the middle. Randle El is still a viable down the field threat. His YPC lasty season was more a reflection of the slot/3rd down receiver role in which he was used. His numbers when he started in place of Burress wereWas 2-37

Jac 5-71

NYJ 1-11

NYG 5-149-1

Buf 7-81-1

for totals of 20 349 2 or 17.5 YPC

which is probably a more accurate reflection of what he is capable of

 
:goodposting:

Also, it is worth noting that Burress averaged 19.9 yards per catch last season.  Obviously, he and Ben were able to hook up on medium to deep passes fairly often, and that helped boost Ben's ypa.  Will ARE or someone else be able to fill that role this year?  Ward and ARE averaged 12.6 and 14.0 ypc respectively last season.
I'll take this... Cedrick Wilson, Fred Gibson and I believe Zamir Cobb will all help fill the downfield role that Burress had. That doesn't even take into consideration Heath Miller's potential contribution to stretching the field, especially down the middle. Randle El is still a viable down the field threat. His YPC lasty season was more a reflection of the slot/3rd down receiver role in which he was used. His numbers when he started in place of Burress wereWas 2-37

Jac 5-71

NYJ 1-11

NYG 5-149-1

Buf 7-81-1

for totals of 20 349 2 or 17.5 YPC

which is probably a more accurate reflection of what he is capable of
This I disagree with.The difference is that once Roethlisberger took over, there was only 1 game for the rest of the year that Burress didn't average over 15 YPC. He didn't catch a lot of passes because of the nature of the offense, but he was a very consistent big play threat. His averaging almost 20 YPC wasn't a fluke, and it came as a direct result of Roethlisberger's ability to buy time and throw accurately downfield - something Maddox couldn't do.

Randle El's YPC over those games is greatly skewed by his performance against the Giants' secondary on a day that they were missing 3/4 of their starters (if I remember correctly). He's not the same type of receiver Burress was, and the Steelers WILL have to replace Burress' downfield threat with using Miller to open things up over the middle. Randle El will add a different twist to the offense, but he won't be the downfield threat Burress was.

It remains to be seen if anyone will be able to stretch the field like Burress did, but I agree that Wilson, Gibson, and Cobb will probably be given the chance to try.

 
with all the media attention and credit he got last year, how can he be underrated?if anyting, he is overrated. he rides the coat tails of Pitts def and running game and benefits from playing the browns/bengals(they still suck) 2x a year. since he is the qb, he gets too much of the credit. needless to say, he has no where to go but down this year.good luck this year with no plax. is randle el a #2 wr in the NFL? i dont think so. i think he is a slot/gimmick playerbut we shall see

 
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You can certainly take the position that Roethlisberger is better than Cowher's previous QBs, but that remains to be proven (EDIT: from a fantasy perspective, at least) at this point.
That's absolutely the position I'd take. Obviously it's still early in his career, but I think the early returns combined with his pedigree make him very promising. I think he may be one of those guys who has "it" for the QB position. He seems to have the natural mental skills and he has the physical ability to match.
 
with all the media attention and credit he got last year, how can he be underrated?

if anyting, he is overrated. he rides the coat tails of Pitts def and running game and benefits from playing the browns/bengals(they still suck) 2x a year.

since he is the qb, he gets too much of the credit. needless to say, he has no where to go but down this year.

good luck this year with no plax. is randle el a #2 wr in the NFL? i dont think so. i think he is a slot/gimmick player

but we shall see
I wouldn't say that he has nowhere to go but down, but I agree with your position.Repeat after me everyone: A QB who passed for an average of 187 yards and barely over a TD a game is NOT underrated.

Also, if it weren't for a horrible FG kicker, he would have led a superior team to a first round playoff loss.

I think the only people who view this guy as the second coming are Steelers fans who are blinded by homerism. The rest of us who watch him play see a guy who definitely has talent, but makes very questionable decisions, and plays in a system with personnel that would need to change drastically for him to worthy of FF starting material.

 
with all the media attention and credit he got last year, how can he be underrated?

if anyting, he is overrated. he rides the coat tails of Pitts def and running game and benefits from playing the browns/bengals(they still suck) 2x a year.

since he is the qb, he gets too much of the credit. needless to say, he has no where to go but down this year.

good luck this year with no plax. is randle el a #2 wr in the NFL? i dont think so. i think he is a slot/gimmick player

but we shall see
:fishy: :fishing:
 
Im shocked you would attempt to holda Rookie in the same Breath as Manning or Culpepper.  Your comparing him to guys who have played 8 and 7 Seasons ?! Heres the 2004 stats , if were using the 1 year Roths did his thing lets do the same one year for Manning and Culpepper.....

----------------------------        Com Att Pct Yds Ypa Lng  TD  TD%

P. Manning QB, IND            336  497      67.6 4557  9.17  80  49  9.9

D. Culpepper QB, MIN      379    548    69.2    4717 8.61 82 39 7.1

B. Roethlisberger QB, PIT    196    295    66.4 2621 8.89 58 17 5.8

Yes his % and ypa are close but  take note of the attempts.., thats a big difference . Its called consistency. Obviously the more passes you throw the harder it is to keep those %'s and Avgs  would you not agree.  Now lets see roths have those stats over 7 or 8 years then we'll talk.  If a Qb comes in a game throws 1 pass  and its for a TD , his stats are gonna look sick. but you dont turn around and compare him to people who are in the same com % range that had 300 attempts right? I think thats whats going on here. IF hes you personal favorite by all means enlighten us but dont start throwing Fantasy MVPS names around.
This is a great point that has yet to be addressed by the guys high on Big Ben as a fantasy option. The reason guys like Manning and Cpep are elite fantasy QBs is becasue they can sustain those lofty averages and oint totals of large sample sizes. Ben has yet to do this and it is typical that it becomse harder to play that good for extended periods of time.
Obviously it's still far too early to assume that he's the next Manning or Culpepper. I said in the initial post that he really hasn't thrown that many passes yet. Nevertheless, he's been very effective with the passes he has thrown. Like I said, he's the first round RB who rushes 150 times for 700 yards as a rookie. The totals aren't there, but the averages are very encouraging.
 
Repeat after me everyone: A QB who passed for an average of 187 yards and barely over a TD a game is NOT underrated.
What do you have to say about the lofty averages that he posted last year? Don't you think his number of passing attempts might increase, thus increasing his passing yards/TDs per game?
 
His production will definitely get better, but as it does, I would be shocked if you saw similiar YPA or td's per attempt.
I agree completely. Those averages aren't sustainable. Nevertheless, they're closer to what Culpepper/Manning than Brady/Aikman. Even if his YPA drops by 1.5 then he'll still have a solid average.
 
Repeat after me everyone: A QB who passed for an average of 187 yards and barely over a TD a game is NOT underrated.
What do you have to say about the lofty averages that he posted last year? Don't you think his number of passing attempts might increase, thus increasing his passing yards/TDs per game?
I think all of his stats will increase, partly because he'll play 16 games, but if he throws for 3200 yards and 19 TD's, that's still not what I want out of my starting FF QB.Also, I think we'll see a big increase in INT's from him in 2005, he was very lucky to have only 11 picks against him last year.

On a positive note, I like his strong arm and I was surprised to see that he has some decent mobility for a big guy. However, I stand by my assertion that his inexperience, system, and surrounding personnel are not conducive to big fantasy numbers.

 
Repeat after me everyone: A QB who passed for an average of 187 yards and barely over a TD a game is NOT underrated.
What do you have to say about the lofty averages that he posted last year? Don't you think his number of passing attempts might increase, thus increasing his passing yards/TDs per game?
I think all of his stats will increase, partly because he'll play 16 games, but if he throws for 3200 yards and 19 TD's, that's still not what I want out of my starting FF QB.Also, I think we'll see a big increase in INT's from him in 2005, he was very lucky to have only 11 picks against him last year.

On a positive note, I like his strong arm and I was surprised to see that he has some decent mobility for a big guy. However, I stand by my assertion that his inexperience, system, and surrounding personnel are not conducive to big fantasy numbers.
One thing that seems to be happening to me is that Pitt is in the process of building the team around Ben. Or at least the O. I think the offseason/draft moves of Wilson/Miller/Gibson are a clear sign of this. Miller inparticular as he offers a great safety valve and learning curve to Ben. Plus they did not address the need for youth at the RB position, sorry, but Parker and Haynes are not the answer. Bettis and Staley are not get younger and there appeared to be great value in the RBs this year both in the draft and FA. Pitt went after none of them. They choose to bring in though 3 new weapons for their young star QB and are reworking Wards contract. :unsure:
 
One thing that seems to be happening to me is that Pitt is in the process of building the team around Ben. Or at least the O. I think the offseason/draft moves of Wilson/Miller/Gibson are a clear sign of this. Miller inparticular as he offers a great safety valve and learning curve to Ben. Plus they did not address the need for youth at the RB position, sorry, but Parker and Haynes are not the answer. Bettis and Staley are not get younger and there appeared to be great value in the RBs this year both in the draft and FA. Pitt went after none of them. They choose to bring in though 3 new weapons for their young star QB and are reworking Wards contract. :unsure:
:goodposting: All good points, I saw Miller and Gibson play quite a bit last season and I think that Gibson will be a very nice player, he has tons of natural athletic ability (good news for :towelwave: fans)

But with all those guys needing to go through the NFL learning curve, I think its just one more reason ot not like Ben at all in 2005, though. From a dynasty perspective I sure wouldn't reach for him, either.

:2cents:

 
If you look further back into Cowher's history, he has shown that he will allow his QBs to throw plenty. Neil O'Donnell played 54 games as a Steeler under Bill Cowher. He attempted 1585 passes during those games. That's an average of 29.352 passing attempts/game. That averages out to 470 attempts over the course of a sixteen game season.

...Tommy Maddox threw the ball 519 times as Cowher's quarterback in 2003...
O'Donnell finished as QB16, QB11, QB20, QB21 from 1992-1995 under Cowher. Not a viable fantasy starter unless you play in a huge league.In 1996, Tomczak was the leading QB and finished as QB21.

Kordell finished as QB2 in 1997, but that was mostly because of his 88/476/11 rushing. He also finished as QB9 in 2001, when he had 96/537/5 rushing. In between he finished as QB16, QB31, and QB17 from 1998-2000.

You also mentioned Maddox. He finished as QB22 in 2002 and QB16 in 2003, his two years as the Steelers' primary starter.

So, while it is true that Cowher has adapted and passed more at times, it is not true that he has produced any viable starting fantasy QBs other than Stewart. Stewart was worthy for two years thanks to his rushing totals.

Unless you think Roethlisberger is going to compile Kordell-like rushing totals, there is no favorable comparison to be gained from Cowher's history.

You can certainly take the position that Roethlisberger is better than Cowher's previous QBs, but that remains to be proven (EDIT: from a fantasy perspective, at least) at this point.
Try taking those numbers and re-arranging with a "per game" average for some of those players - Maddox was a great fantasy starter in 2002. The combo of Maddox and Green were the QBs for my championship team that year.
 
The real problem for me with Roeth - even looking into the future - is that while Cowher will certainly allow the arm to win the game if that is necessary, he is significantly more comfortable grinding it out in the 4th. Unlike having an FF QB playing for Mike Martz, **** Vermeil, or even Bill Belichek, you can count on a Steeler lead in the 4th to have a lot of running plays and throws primarily saved for 3rd and 3 or more.QBs' ability to get garbage TDs/yards in the 4th is a key FF stat. Not that Roeth won't be a decent FF QB, but, as EBF mentioned, he will likely evolve into a fringe starter rather than a steady FF starter - which, necessitates you having another decent starting FF QB on your roster anyway.So, in response to the tag line of this thread, I don't believe Ben is over or under rated - redraft or dynasty - I think he is just right- on the radar screen, with some hopefullness tempered by Cowher's conservative coaching style.

 
If you look further back into Cowher's history, he has shown that he will allow his QBs to throw plenty. Neil O'Donnell played 54 games as a Steeler under Bill Cowher. He attempted 1585 passes during those games. That's an average of 29.352 passing attempts/game. That averages out to 470 attempts over the course of a sixteen game season.

...Tommy Maddox threw the ball 519 times as Cowher's quarterback in 2003...
O'Donnell finished as QB16, QB11, QB20, QB21 from 1992-1995 under Cowher. Not a viable fantasy starter unless you play in a huge league.In 1996, Tomczak was the leading QB and finished as QB21.

Kordell finished as QB2 in 1997, but that was mostly because of his 88/476/11 rushing. He also finished as QB9 in 2001, when he had 96/537/5 rushing. In between he finished as QB16, QB31, and QB17 from 1998-2000.

You also mentioned Maddox. He finished as QB22 in 2002 and QB16 in 2003, his two years as the Steelers' primary starter.

So, while it is true that Cowher has adapted and passed more at times, it is not true that he has produced any viable starting fantasy QBs other than Stewart. Stewart was worthy for two years thanks to his rushing totals.

Unless you think Roethlisberger is going to compile Kordell-like rushing totals, there is no favorable comparison to be gained from Cowher's history.

You can certainly take the position that Roethlisberger is better than Cowher's previous QBs, but that remains to be proven (EDIT: from a fantasy perspective, at least) at this point.
Try taking those numbers and re-arranging with a "per game" average for some of those players - Maddox was a great fantasy starter in 2002. The combo of Maddox and Green were the QBs for my championship team that year.
I don't need to do that. The results speak for themselves. Cowher has been HC since 1992 and has had no QB worthy of starting in a typically sized fantasy league, with the exception of Kordell twice due to his rushing.I don't disagree that Ben is more talented than the other guys... that wasn't my point. My point was to refute the notion that there is anything in Cowher's history that provides a basis for a favorable projection for Ben. I stand by that point.

To your Maddox point, here is his 2002 game log:

Code:
2002 Game Logs WK TM OPP CMP ATT YD TD INT RSH YD TD FPT  4 PIT CLE 11 13 122 1 1 2 1 0 9.2 [play-by-play] 5 PIT NO 22 38 268 3 1 0 0 0 24.4 [play-by-play] 6 PIT CIN 16 25 216 1 2 0 0 0 12.8 [play-by-play] 7 PIT IND 15 23 188 2 1 0 0 0 16.4 [play-by-play] 8 PIT BAL 18 24 172 2 1 4 -9 0 14.7 [play-by-play] 9 PIT CLE 23 42 239 2 1 3 8 0 19.8 [play-by-play] 10 PIT ATL 28 41 473 4 1 2 7 0 39.4 [play-by-play] 11 PIT TEN 14 28 194 1 3 1 12 0 11.9 [play-by-play] 14 PIT HOU 30 57 325 0 2 2 6 0 14.8 [play-by-play] 15 PIT CAR 20 33 209 1 1 1 0 0 13.4 [play-by-play] 16 PIT TB 17 23 236 1 0 2 -2 0 15.6 [play-by-play] 17 PIT BAL 20 30 194 2 2 2 20 0 17.7 [play-by-play] TOT   234 377 2836 20 16 19 43 0 210.1
He had a monster game in week 10. Otherwise, he was quite pedestrian, averaging 16.6 fppg in the other 9 full games he played (he played only partial games in weeks 4 and 11). To give you a frame of comparison, Kerry Collins was QB12 that year and averaged 16.6 fppg. Maddox was at best a marginal/spot starter that season. If you loaded up your team at other positions, I'm sure he was serviceable, which can probably also be said about Roethlisberger. But Roethlisberger won't be the linchpin of any fantasy teams anytime soon, just as Maddox never was. He certainly doesn't provide any evidence that supports Roethlisberger being a fantasy force IMO.
 
Otherwise, he was quite pedestrian, averaging 16.6 fppg in the other 9 full games he played (he played only partial games in weeks 4 and 11).  To give you a frame of comparison, Kerry Collins was QB12 that year and averaged 16.6 fppg.  Maddox was at best a marginal/spot starter that season.  If you loaded up your team at other positions, I'm sure he was serviceable, which can probably also be said about Roethlisberger. 
Not really - Roeth finished as the #24 FF QB in pts/game in 2004.as you acknowledge, Maddox finished #12 in pts/game EXCLUDING his monster game. - that is more than serviceable or pedestrian - that is a fantasy football starting QB.Not sure how your factual support does more than enhance my point about the importance of pts/game over EOY numbers.In 2003, Faulk's pts/game over the last 8 weeks were high enough to make him a top-5 RB over that span - and he took me to a championship that year - his EOY numbers were in the RB20 range. I was better off with thr RB20-ish ranking that Faulk had than the RB9 numbers of Ricky Williams.EOY fantasy finishes are the SINGLE most deceptive, and one of the least useful, FF stat in terms of actual fantasy worth - they are a rough outline of the players year, but they mean much less when determining whether a player is a good weekly start.
 
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He had a monster game in week 10. Otherwise, he was quite pedestrian, averaging 16.6 fppg in the other 9 full games he played (he played only partial games in weeks 4 and 11). To give you a frame of comparison, Kerry Collins was QB12 that year and averaged 16.6 fppg. Maddox was at best a marginal/spot starter that season. If you loaded up your team at other positions, I'm sure he was serviceable, which can probably also be said about Roethlisberger. But Roethlisberger won't be the linchpin of any fantasy teams anytime soon, just as Maddox never was. He certainly doesn't provide any evidence that supports Roethlisberger being a fantasy force IMO.
I agree for the most part with this. I stated in the one QB thread that Ben was the WORST starter that I could probably tollerate on my fantasy team. Reason being basically what you just stated. That I could load up on other positions and basically do a damage control approach. Ben is not an every week starter and will be a spot starter on just about every team next year. That may change down the road as I said, I think Pitt will some waht hitch their wagon to this guy. Not this year though.
 
Otherwise, he was quite pedestrian, averaging 16.6 fppg in the other 9 full games he played (he played only partial games in weeks 4 and 11).  To give you a frame of comparison, Kerry Collins was QB12 that year and averaged 16.6 fppg.  Maddox was at best a marginal/spot starter that season.  If you loaded up your team at other positions, I'm sure he was serviceable, which can probably also be said about Roethlisberger. 
Not really - Roeth finished as the #24 FF QB in pts/game in 2004.as you acknowledge, Maddox finished #12 in pts/game EXCLUDING his monster game. - that is more than serviceable or pedestrian - that is a fantasy football starting QB.

Not sure how your factual support does more than enhance my point about the importance of pts/game over EOY numbers.

In 2003, Faulk's pts/game over the last 8 weeks were high enough to make him a top-5 RB over that span - and he took me to a championship that year - his EOY numbers were in the RB20 range. I was better off with thr RB20-ish ranking that Faulk had than the RB9 numbers of Ricky Williams.

EOY fantasy finishes are the SINGLE most deceptive, and one of the least useful, FF stat in terms of actual fantasy worth - they are a rough outline of the players year, but they mean much less when determining whether a player is a good weekly start.
I agree Marc, but per game numbers can be just as misleading. For instance reverse your Faulk example to the Holmes one last year. Yeah is Per game points were disgusting, but how many Champs do you think he helped win.... he wasn't playing down the stretch. All numbers can be misleading.
 
He had a monster game in week 10.  Otherwise, he was quite pedestrian, averaging 16.6 fppg in the other 9 full games he played (he played only partial games in weeks 4 and 11).  To give you a frame of comparison, Kerry Collins was QB12 that year and averaged 16.6 fppg.  Maddox was at best a marginal/spot starter that season.  If you loaded up your team at other positions, I'm sure he was serviceable, which can probably also be said about Roethlisberger.  But Roethlisberger won't be the linchpin of any fantasy teams anytime soon, just as Maddox never was.  He certainly doesn't provide any evidence that supports Roethlisberger being a fantasy force IMO.
I agree for the most part with this. I stated in the one QB thread that Ben was the WORST starter that I could probably tollerate on my fantasy team. Reason being basically what you just stated. That I could load up on other positions and basically do a damage control approach. Ben is not an every week starter and will be a spot starter on just about every team next year. That may change down the road as I said, I think Pitt will some waht hitch their wagon to this guy. Not this year though.
this is exactly what i was getting at - while ben has upside for dynasty purposes, if you are starting him, chances are you will get pounded at QB - so while he's a nice prospect, he forces you to carry another solid QB.
 
He had a monster game in week 10.  Otherwise, he was quite pedestrian, averaging 16.6 fppg in the other 9 full games he played (he played only partial games in weeks 4 and 11).  To give you a frame of comparison, Kerry Collins was QB12 that year and averaged 16.6 fppg.  Maddox was at best a marginal/spot starter that season.  If you loaded up your team at other positions, I'm sure he was serviceable, which can probably also be said about Roethlisberger.  But Roethlisberger won't be the linchpin of any fantasy teams anytime soon, just as Maddox never was.  He certainly doesn't provide any evidence that supports Roethlisberger being a fantasy force IMO.
I agree for the most part with this. I stated in the one QB thread that Ben was the WORST starter that I could probably tollerate on my fantasy team. Reason being basically what you just stated. That I could load up on other positions and basically do a damage control approach. Ben is not an every week starter and will be a spot starter on just about every team next year. That may change down the road as I said, I think Pitt will some waht hitch their wagon to this guy. Not this year though.
this is exactly what i was getting at - while ben has upside for dynasty purposes, if you are starting him, chances are you will get pounded at QB - so while he's a nice prospect, he forces you to carry another solid QB.
I made that point here, too, in that of you take him in a redraft OR a dynasty, you are forced to carry another serviceable QB. I do not believe he is underrated - I think he is accurately rated - both for redraft and dynasty purposes.
 
I agree Marc, but per game numbers can be just as misleading. For instance reverse your Faulk example to the Holmes one last year. Yeah is Per game points were disgusting, but how many Champs do you think he helped win.... he wasn't playing down the stretch. All numbers can be misleading.
Absolutely correct - JWB was taking the EOY numbers in a vaccum as proof that no Pitt QB outside Kordell was a worthy FF producer. A FF QB who averages in pts/game at the #12 level is, per se, a worthy FF producer - and not in isolated instances.
 
Underrated as a QB for the future? Yes.Underrated as a fantasy QB? Not for a very very long time.

 

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