EBF
Footballguy
I was pretty impressed with Ben Roethlisberger last year. In fact, I was so impressed that I drafted him in my two initial dynasty drafts since the 2004 season and overpaid dearly to acquire him in another dynasty league.
I don't think Roethlisberger is going to have an amazing 2005, but I think he's being seriously discredited as a dynasty prospect. A lot of people compare him to Troy Aikman and Tom Brady, two guys known more for their NFL accomplishments than for gaudy statistics. I can understand this. Roethlisberger wasn't much of a fantasy factor as a rookie. The main statistic that attracted attention wasn't his passing TDs, but rather his won-loss record. That's why people compare him to other unspectacular fantasy QBs who are known for winning.
I acknowledge that Roethlisberger didn't amass great totals in 2004 and that the Cowher regime hasn't been marked by a lot passing, but I still think people are way too quick to dismiss Big Ben as a dynasty prospect.
First off, I'd like to show a major distinction between Roethlisberger and Brady/Aikman. Here are their career averages:
Completion %
Troy Aikman - 61.5
Tom Brady - 61.6
Yards Per Attempt
Troy Aikman - 7.0
Tom Brady - 6.9
Attempts Per TD Pass
Troy Aikman - 28.6
Tom Brady - 20.8
Now let's look at how Roethlisberger compared as a rookie:
Ben Roethlisberger
Completion % - 66.4
Yards Per Attempt - 8.9
Attempts Per TD Pass - 17.4
His season totals blow away the career averages posted by Aikman and Brady. It's not even close. He averaged more yards per throw and it took him less throws to manufacture a passing TD.
What does this mean? Well, not much, but it suggests that Roethlisberger was more prolific on a per throw basis as a rookie than two "game-manager" type QBs to whom he's often compared. In fact, it doesn't look like he's very comparable to these two quarterbacks at all.
After establishing that Roethlisberger has been more prolific per throw than two unspectacular fantasy QBs, I thought it would be worthwhile to compare him to two spectacular fantasy QBs. Here are the career averages for Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper.
Completion %
Daunte Culpepper - 64.4
Peyton Manning - 63.5
Yards Per Attempt
Daunte Culpepper - 7.8
Peyton Manning - 7.6
Passing Attempts Per TD
Daunte Culpepper - 18.55
Peyton Manning - 17.96
As you can see, Roethlisberger's 2004 numbers surpass the career averages put forth by the top two fantasy QBs in the game. I'm not nearly dense enough to suggest that he's a better fantasy QB or that he ever will be. He played a limited number of games, he didn't throw a lot, he was mediocre in the playoffs, and he's only played for a season. Nevertheless, it certainly looks like his averages are closer to those of Manning and Culpepper than to those of Brady and Aikman.
The way I see it, Roethlisberger is the QB equivalent of a first round rookie RB who rushes for 700 yards on 120 carries in his first year. You can't say that he put forward the totals of a fantasy stud, but he had elite averages and showed that he could be a statistical monster if given more opportunities.
That's where one of the big caveats lies. Will he get more chances to throw? The answer seems to be yes.
If you look further back into Cowher's history, he has shown that he will allow his QBs to throw plenty. Neil O'Donnell played 54 games as a Steeler under Bill Cowher. He attempted 1585 passes during those games. That's an average of 29.352 passing attempts/game. That averages out to 470 attempts over the course of a sixteen game season.
470 isn't a ton, but it should be enough to allow Roethlisberger to be a viable fantasy starter in future seasons. I understand that the Steelers are built to be a ball control team. Nevertheless, I think it would be a big mistake to discredit the top rookie QB in recent memory. I certainly don't expect him to maintain his insane averages over the course of his career. However, I don't think it's crazy to believe that he has a chance to be a major statistical producer in future seasons. Tommy Maddox threw the ball 519 times as Cowher's quarterback in 2003. If Ben Roethlisberger ever gets the opportunity to throw that much then he could put uop staggering numbers.
Anyhow, I just wanted to point out a misconception. I don't expect Roethlisberger to have a great fantasy season in 2005, but I think people who compare him to Brady and Aikman aren't looking deep enough. He's not in an ideal system for our purposes, but he's shown flashes of immense ability and I think he's definitely a top 8 dynasty QB. It's scary to think about how good he might be if he improves (which many young QBs do).
I don't think Roethlisberger is going to have an amazing 2005, but I think he's being seriously discredited as a dynasty prospect. A lot of people compare him to Troy Aikman and Tom Brady, two guys known more for their NFL accomplishments than for gaudy statistics. I can understand this. Roethlisberger wasn't much of a fantasy factor as a rookie. The main statistic that attracted attention wasn't his passing TDs, but rather his won-loss record. That's why people compare him to other unspectacular fantasy QBs who are known for winning.
I acknowledge that Roethlisberger didn't amass great totals in 2004 and that the Cowher regime hasn't been marked by a lot passing, but I still think people are way too quick to dismiss Big Ben as a dynasty prospect.
First off, I'd like to show a major distinction between Roethlisberger and Brady/Aikman. Here are their career averages:
Completion %
Troy Aikman - 61.5
Tom Brady - 61.6
Yards Per Attempt
Troy Aikman - 7.0
Tom Brady - 6.9
Attempts Per TD Pass
Troy Aikman - 28.6
Tom Brady - 20.8
Now let's look at how Roethlisberger compared as a rookie:
Ben Roethlisberger
Completion % - 66.4
Yards Per Attempt - 8.9
Attempts Per TD Pass - 17.4
His season totals blow away the career averages posted by Aikman and Brady. It's not even close. He averaged more yards per throw and it took him less throws to manufacture a passing TD.
What does this mean? Well, not much, but it suggests that Roethlisberger was more prolific on a per throw basis as a rookie than two "game-manager" type QBs to whom he's often compared. In fact, it doesn't look like he's very comparable to these two quarterbacks at all.
After establishing that Roethlisberger has been more prolific per throw than two unspectacular fantasy QBs, I thought it would be worthwhile to compare him to two spectacular fantasy QBs. Here are the career averages for Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper.
Completion %
Daunte Culpepper - 64.4
Peyton Manning - 63.5
Yards Per Attempt
Daunte Culpepper - 7.8
Peyton Manning - 7.6
Passing Attempts Per TD
Daunte Culpepper - 18.55
Peyton Manning - 17.96
As you can see, Roethlisberger's 2004 numbers surpass the career averages put forth by the top two fantasy QBs in the game. I'm not nearly dense enough to suggest that he's a better fantasy QB or that he ever will be. He played a limited number of games, he didn't throw a lot, he was mediocre in the playoffs, and he's only played for a season. Nevertheless, it certainly looks like his averages are closer to those of Manning and Culpepper than to those of Brady and Aikman.
The way I see it, Roethlisberger is the QB equivalent of a first round rookie RB who rushes for 700 yards on 120 carries in his first year. You can't say that he put forward the totals of a fantasy stud, but he had elite averages and showed that he could be a statistical monster if given more opportunities.
That's where one of the big caveats lies. Will he get more chances to throw? The answer seems to be yes.
If you look further back into Cowher's history, he has shown that he will allow his QBs to throw plenty. Neil O'Donnell played 54 games as a Steeler under Bill Cowher. He attempted 1585 passes during those games. That's an average of 29.352 passing attempts/game. That averages out to 470 attempts over the course of a sixteen game season.
470 isn't a ton, but it should be enough to allow Roethlisberger to be a viable fantasy starter in future seasons. I understand that the Steelers are built to be a ball control team. Nevertheless, I think it would be a big mistake to discredit the top rookie QB in recent memory. I certainly don't expect him to maintain his insane averages over the course of his career. However, I don't think it's crazy to believe that he has a chance to be a major statistical producer in future seasons. Tommy Maddox threw the ball 519 times as Cowher's quarterback in 2003. If Ben Roethlisberger ever gets the opportunity to throw that much then he could put uop staggering numbers.
Anyhow, I just wanted to point out a misconception. I don't expect Roethlisberger to have a great fantasy season in 2005, but I think people who compare him to Brady and Aikman aren't looking deep enough. He's not in an ideal system for our purposes, but he's shown flashes of immense ability and I think he's definitely a top 8 dynasty QB. It's scary to think about how good he might be if he improves (which many young QBs do).