Obviously he has value as a handcuff this year, but what are people's thoughts on how much value he has next year and beyond. Seems like there's a couple scenario's. Foster hits the wall this year or gets hurt and Tate shows enough where he's resigned by Houston and they let Foster go. I guess they'd have to trade him since they just signed him to a 5 year deal last year. Or what may be more likely, Tate goes somewhere else to be the starter. His value would depend on where he ends up and there's no way to project that. So i guess i'm wondering what people think of his value assuming he goes to a fairly decent team. Of course, he's had some of his own injury problems as well.
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Ben Tate- This season aside, what's his dynasty value? (1 Viewer)
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Shutout
Footballguy
I see it as value now and almost assuredly value later. I think it's worth an investment because it is reasonable that he could be a starting RB in Atlanta or San Francisco or a number of other places that don't have secure long term futures. You have to imagine that if he is a FA, he will sign somewhere where he anticipates a larger role. At his age, he can likely sign a 3-4 year deal and think he can really cash in on one more big contract at a prime age.
mere blitzianity
Footballguy
socrates
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
i would rather have a one that I control than a coin flip that I do not.
MAC_32
Footballguy
i don't see as an improvement to many rb corps. And it will be more cost effective to draft a rookie rather than ink the unproven veteran.
Run It Up
Footballguy
This is his 3rd year, he has played exceptionally well in the league - behind Arian Foster.
He has over 5 YPC on 240 carries in his two years.
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I think he's slightly overrated at this point, though anyone in a starting RB position (which he probably will be next year) obviously has value. He doesn't look like an elite/special back to me - he looks like a back who can put up numbers in a good run offense when given the opportunity. It's hard to project his upside without knowing the situation he will be in.
MAC_32
Footballguy
YPC for cop backs are inflated. His issues staying on the field are more noteworthy imho
Run It Up
Footballguy
Well now your changing your argument, is he an injury concern or an unproven veteran?
I think 5 ypc over 240 carries in 2 years is proven enough. Hes played incredibly well in games that he has started as the 1.
I think Tate's prospects of landing a starting RB next year are limited. He is talented, but he is only a zone blocking scheme runner in my opinion. He's a one-cut runner, not an elusive guy. I do not know how many zone blocking teams out there have an opening for a feature back and are willing to pay one. Aside from Michael Turner, BGE, and Steven Jackson this year, I cant recall many RBs who signed as starting feature backs on new teams. Most just draft RBs rather than pay big money to a free agent because the shelf life of RBs is so short. So, in my opinion, there is as much of a chance of Tate resigning as Foster's backup and heir apparent in a couple of years, than as a starter with a new team.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He can't be both?
Run It Up
Footballguy
He can if you ignore what we know about him, I think you would have to be kidding yourself if you believed he was unproven.
Historically, there have been other backups that sign or are traded to be a feature back elsewhere. Off the top of my head (excluding the guys you listed): Priest Holmes, Chester Taylor, Thomas Jones, Ahman Green, Ivory (arguably). I'm sure there are others. Tate reminds me of a Chester Taylor quality runner. Good but not great.
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cstu
Footballguy
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Yes, I knew I forgot a few. But I dont consider Mendy or Ivory to be true feature backs changing teams for big money, just cheap bandaids.
He might just not get a big money contract elsewhere and Houston might pay him enough and promise him starters role in a couple of years when Foster is done. Sort of like Carolina paid Deangelo alot to stay as a backup.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
He really has no value until he picks a new team.
drunken slob
Footballguy
Zero
Carolina is the exception, not the norm. If most teams are unwilling to pay a RB big money as a starter, even fewer are willing to pay a backup. Add to the that the yearly cap problems that face Houston and it is very unlikely they retain Tate, unless he decides he likes Houston so much that he signs for the minimum. Tate will be 26 next year. It doesn't make much sense that Houston would make plans for him to become the starter when he's 28.
I get the argument that teams don't want to pay a lot to a RB when rookies are cheaper, but proven productivity does have worth and the FAs are going to play somewhere and the teams willing to pay the most are going to be teams that want the guy to carry the ball the most (generally speaking). So maybe we don't see Tate get a big payday, but he will probably go where he gets the most money and that will probably be a team that wants him to start. It makes no difference to fantasy owners if he's making 5 mil a year or 10 mil a year. We just want to see him get a lot of carries and chances are that will happen next year unless he looks like doo doo this year.
Houston does not have a lot of cap room, so I think he's unlikely to sign back unless they cut Foster. But given Foster contract, I don't think that's feasible:
Houston does not have a lot of cap room, so I think he's unlikely to sign back unless they cut Foster. But given Foster contract, I don't think that's feasible:
Side note: I saw it mentioned that he's most valuable in zone blocking schemes. Well, the Raiders have gone back to zone blocking and they might be ready to let DMC walk after this year.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
We Tigers
Footballguy
I agree with this, and think the time to buy on Tate may actually be 4-5 weeks into the season. If Foster is back doing his thing, Tate will have returned to 8-10 touches/game and be a decent but still frustrating asset. I believe it would be worth overpaying a little to get Tate midseason simply because you haven't had to endure three years of mostly nothing leading up to this point, and his potential for next year is big.The only hitch is that there aren't a ton of teams in need of big RB help right now, but odds are that will change as the season progresses.
MAC_32
Footballguy
As a feature back he is absolutely unproven. He has shown he can shoulder the load a week or 2 at a time. That puts him in the same class as Vick Ballard, Bryce Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Michael Bush, Felix Jones, Marcel Reece, Isaac Redman, etc.. He has not shown he can maintain over a long period of time. In that regard he is unproven. Why would a team put the controls of the running game in those hands when they can put them in another unproven (rookie) at a substantially lesser cost with a longer expected useful life?
I think the reason would be that people believe he's a talented rb. I think the consensus is that he's more talented, and by a fair margin, over any of those rb's you listed. Rb's in the draft are a crapshoot. As mentioned earlier in the thread, there have been similar examples: turner had the biggest success but also Chester Taylor and some others.MAC_32 said:
Adam Harstad
Moderator
In Ben Tate's 3 games as Houston's primary ballcarrier, he has 63/316/2 rushing and 8/56/0 receiving. That's 5.01 ypc, nearly identical to his career average. I'd say he's done just fine outside of a CoP role, too.MAC_32 said:
Edit: Tate's going to be a 26-year-old free agent with a 5+ career YPC next season. Someone's already mentioned Michael Turner, but Chester Taylor and LaMont Jordan have also had great seasons after switching teams via free agency. Right now, I've got Tate in my top 24 dynasty RBs, and I think he makes a great investment for any team focusing on the future.
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Zaphod
Two heads are better than one
This situation, like many others can be argued both ways. Lots of data points for success and failure. What this really boils down to is whether you think Tate is talented or not. If you do, you feel his talent will win out in another situation. If you don't, you feel he will fail in an extended feature role. Personally, I think he has shown enough at this level to prove he will get his chances moving forward and that he will most likely succeed, thereby cementing your investment.
Lamont Jordan, there's a blast from the past. Not sure that's the best example. Looked up his stats. had 1 decent year where he scored 9 td's/1000 yds on a 3.8 yrd / carry, then was injured/ didn't do much.
ETA: and chester taylor's stats a little better, but not much.
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Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Jordan had almost 1600 yards from scrimmage and 11 TDs in 14 games. That's a pretty darn good example. Injuries are unpredictable.
Fair enough. I didn't look at this receiving stats. Still though, i think it's worth noting for dynasty purposes each of those guys really only one good season.
cstu
Footballguy
It's all about health for me. I traded him for a 1st to the Foster owner since I'd rather take my chances on someone younger and healthier. It could blow up in my face though if he stay healthy.
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
This year cannot be put aside
Chester had a solid season. He had the misfortune of losing his job to a rookie first round draft pick that is today a clear future hall of famer. In any event, there were probably 16 months where he could have been traded at the equivalent of a top 20 back. That is real value if you could have grabbed him when he was backing up Jamal Lewis in Baltimore.
cstu
Footballguy
Ok then, is he worth more or less than Michael or Lattimore? They're two backs who aren't expected to play until next year at the earliest.
MAC_32
Footballguy
i would rather have Lattimore, healthy, he is going to have a big role in San Francisco.
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
hypothetically it can. in my league i have the ability to put him on a taxi squad.
Zaphod
Two heads are better than one
But that is exactly the point, is it not? This is a dynasty discussion about a back that has shown some flashes of above average talent. Some believe he hasn't shown enough or has been injured too much, etc. But this is really about value and supply and demand. My lineup requires that I field 1 to 2 point scoring RBs a week and my roster demands that I carry a constant stream of replacements in varying states of readiness.
I don't want to pay full value for Tate, so if I believe in him, this is a perfect year to target him. If I don't then I move on to someone else. BUT, if I am going to succeed at this more than my competition, I have two choices; find or create value.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
It's not. In fact, THIS year is the reason Tate can be had for about 1/3 or so what he will cost a year from now.
A lot of people think Tate will be a nice RB when he gets a starting gig next year. I am one of them.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
GregR
Footballguy
FF Ninja said it pretty well about Houston's situation. They won't have a lot of cap room. Cushing and JJ Watt will have new contracts coming amongst others.
It doesn't make much sense to sign Tate to be your future Foster replacement when Tate is only 1 year younger than Foster. Only way I see it happening is if something happens where they would release Foster outright. Which would be about a $2.5m cap hit I believe next year, so I don't see it barring something unusual. So unless Tate signs for fairly cheep to stay, I don't see it happening.
I also wouldn't assume you're getting a 5 ypc runner unless you're putting him back behind one of the top lines in the NFL, as Tate was when he put up his 5.4 ypc in 2011. Odds are he instead ends up somewhere that is worse than the 2012 line (still one of the NFL's better but not nearly as good) behind which he got 4.3 ypc. Smaller sample for him in 2012, but it's very obvious if you watched both seasons the difference in the line's play, and both Foster and Tate's ypc's dropped.
It doesn't make much sense to sign Tate to be your future Foster replacement when Tate is only 1 year younger than Foster. Only way I see it happening is if something happens where they would release Foster outright. Which would be about a $2.5m cap hit I believe next year, so I don't see it barring something unusual. So unless Tate signs for fairly cheep to stay, I don't see it happening.
I also wouldn't assume you're getting a 5 ypc runner unless you're putting him back behind one of the top lines in the NFL, as Tate was when he put up his 5.4 ypc in 2011. Odds are he instead ends up somewhere that is worse than the 2012 line (still one of the NFL's better but not nearly as good) behind which he got 4.3 ypc. Smaller sample for him in 2012, but it's very obvious if you watched both seasons the difference in the line's play, and both Foster and Tate's ypc's dropped.
