Rovers
Footballguy
Let's say you are loaded with NE players. Obviously, that offense is a prolific scoring machine, and can now run the ball as well as pass it, or so it seems. I'm going to look at NE specifically, but does the Seattle defense especially at home dictate, or at least influence your line up decisions?
This is no WDIS, as I've already decided to bench 2 of my 3 NE almost every week starters. But onto why I'm doing it.
The under over is 43 to 43.5. Might be the lowest U/O NE gets all year by Vegas. Certainly the rather anemic SEA offense has something to do with that, but SEA has surrendered the fewest yards and second fewest PPG in NFL 2012 to date.
Brady talked about the nickel D the Broncos showed, so they ran the ball, very successfully. The SEA secondary is perhaps the best in the NFL. It's doubtful NE sees much nickel outside of passing downs. So... given Belichicks track record, despite some rain and 10 to 20 MPH winds, I think NE will return to a more passing dominated game plan. I am guessing SEA will counter with more blitzes but not the nickel.
Lots of guess work, but that what Belichick brings. What will he do this week? Based on these very skeletal assumptions:
Ridley? Not likely to have a big week against SEA's base defense. Woodhead could see a fair number of touches out of the backfield. Woodhead is almost the anti-blitz RB. He can throw a chip and release, has sure hands and can get YAR on the second level with his speed. I beleive NE doesn't crack 100 on the ground this week. Maybe more like 60 to 65.
So, IMO the Pats offense will rest on Brady's capable shoulders, but again, this SEA D at home is likely to be his toughest challenge this season. AZ shut him down (not owned, just controlled, really), whether that was fluke, game planning or whatever, but Brady CAN be stymied on occassion. The noise in that stadium can interfere with that hurry up offense. That could lead to offensive mistakes by NE.
I think the wild card is Hernadez. If he is healthy enough to play, Brady could end up with a decent fantasy stat line and might be able to pull a win out of this west coast trip. This passing offense is sooo much better out of the two TE set it's silly. Lloyd continues to disappoint, Gronkowski does seem to be somewhat limited with his hip issues, and Welker is well, Welker. Belichick is not ego centric enough to let Welker's ill advised "joking" comments get in the way of a win.
I see tough sledding for all NE offensive players this week with the exception of Welker, unless Hernandez can get on the field and be more than a decoy. SEA will not play nickel. They will challenge Brady to throw, do some blitzing and the hurry up will be disrupted by the 12th man. Woodhead might be a sneaky flex starter.
With Hernandez:
NE- 23
SEA- 20
Without Hernandez:
NE- 17
SEA- 20
Either way, I'm taking the under and the points. And for anyone who might want to know... I'm benching Gronkowski for Celek and Lloyd for Kerley. I never bench a kicker on a matchup, so Gotz stays in the line up.
This is no WDIS, as I've already decided to bench 2 of my 3 NE almost every week starters. But onto why I'm doing it.
The under over is 43 to 43.5. Might be the lowest U/O NE gets all year by Vegas. Certainly the rather anemic SEA offense has something to do with that, but SEA has surrendered the fewest yards and second fewest PPG in NFL 2012 to date.
Brady talked about the nickel D the Broncos showed, so they ran the ball, very successfully. The SEA secondary is perhaps the best in the NFL. It's doubtful NE sees much nickel outside of passing downs. So... given Belichicks track record, despite some rain and 10 to 20 MPH winds, I think NE will return to a more passing dominated game plan. I am guessing SEA will counter with more blitzes but not the nickel.
Lots of guess work, but that what Belichick brings. What will he do this week? Based on these very skeletal assumptions:
Ridley? Not likely to have a big week against SEA's base defense. Woodhead could see a fair number of touches out of the backfield. Woodhead is almost the anti-blitz RB. He can throw a chip and release, has sure hands and can get YAR on the second level with his speed. I beleive NE doesn't crack 100 on the ground this week. Maybe more like 60 to 65.
So, IMO the Pats offense will rest on Brady's capable shoulders, but again, this SEA D at home is likely to be his toughest challenge this season. AZ shut him down (not owned, just controlled, really), whether that was fluke, game planning or whatever, but Brady CAN be stymied on occassion. The noise in that stadium can interfere with that hurry up offense. That could lead to offensive mistakes by NE.
I think the wild card is Hernadez. If he is healthy enough to play, Brady could end up with a decent fantasy stat line and might be able to pull a win out of this west coast trip. This passing offense is sooo much better out of the two TE set it's silly. Lloyd continues to disappoint, Gronkowski does seem to be somewhat limited with his hip issues, and Welker is well, Welker. Belichick is not ego centric enough to let Welker's ill advised "joking" comments get in the way of a win.
I see tough sledding for all NE offensive players this week with the exception of Welker, unless Hernandez can get on the field and be more than a decoy. SEA will not play nickel. They will challenge Brady to throw, do some blitzing and the hurry up will be disrupted by the 12th man. Woodhead might be a sneaky flex starter.
With Hernandez:
NE- 23
SEA- 20
Without Hernandez:
NE- 17
SEA- 20
Either way, I'm taking the under and the points. And for anyone who might want to know... I'm benching Gronkowski for Celek and Lloyd for Kerley. I never bench a kicker on a matchup, so Gotz stays in the line up.
