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Benching Tomlinson? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tikitime
- Start date
salmonstud
Footballguy
No...you are the only one in the United States considering this. I heard some guy in Turkey is benching Tomlinson though. Those Turkish leagues can have some real whackos in them.
fsufan
Footballguy
Trying to not turn this into a WDIS, but I have Chester Taylor going against an average at best Buffalo Defense.
Texican
Footballguy
The only week he should be on the bench is week 3.
Consider me officially #####slapped.
Sheriff66
Footballguy
Like I said in anohter thread, I sat Alexander last year against JAX and it worked out well. I could see him getting shut down (tough run D, flying across the country), if you have a backup with a nice matchup, you may want to consider it.
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Last year LT had a game with 33 total yards and 0 TDs. I'd imagine he'll have a game this year where he won't break 7 FPs. But everyone realizes you start him every week, because you don't know when that 7 point clunker will come.
Why people miss the exact same point regarding using AVT and certain norms (4 100-yard rushers each week, e.g.) and mess up those projections, but understand to start LT each week, is puzzling to me.
Why people miss the exact same point regarding using AVT and certain norms (4 100-yard rushers each week, e.g.) and mess up those projections, but understand to start LT each week, is puzzling to me.
Sheriff66
Footballguy
Sometimes you have to go with your gut, if I went by the FBG cheetsheet every week, I would be hurting. He is going to have a bad week here and there, if you have a backup with a really nice matchup, it would not be crazy to sit LT against a tough matchup this week.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
you cant bench him in PPR leagues.
TD heavy, I'd consider it , If I had a solid #3RB with an awesome matchup. but then I'd come to my senses and start LT
TD heavy, I'd consider it , If I had a solid #3RB with an awesome matchup. but then I'd come to my senses and start LT
NYCGangGreen
Footballguy
Vaunted????Hell they almost lost to Cleveland last week.CLEVELAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Unfortunately i look at both those teams as yet to play anyone of a challenge. 2-0 and 3-0 after so-so opponents. A good game indeed ahead. Excuse me 2-0 and 3-0......i forgot the Raiders, they dont count much to me!But C'mon....Benching LT.......put down the pipe man!
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enfuego
Footballguy
Yeah, and my wife's cooking is decent every once in a while, but I still prefer eating out often...
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knowledge dropper
Footballguy
He will hurt the Ravens defensive stats more than the Ravens defense will hurt his.
NYCGangGreen
Footballguy
Someone else brought up the third RB component of the analysis. That's really all I was referring to with Chet, it explained the scenario I was going through, but not really looking for advice per se.
That's ultimately what the thought process is. It's like when a manger brings in his closer and his closer gives up three big hits in a row *coughbradlidgecough*, the manager is bulletproof because he said, "that;s the guy we want in that situation, we rode him, and I'd do it again. Only way you feel like an idiot is if you play cute and overthink and then get burned. But that's me, an overthinker (is that a word, I'm going with yes).proninja said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Just adding to, that I am Benching Jamal Lewis.
He will have a very meh game.
He will have a very meh game.
Bronx Bombers
Footballguy
Not a chance
Bronx Bombers
Footballguy
Not a chance
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
I would if I like my other options. People talk as if LT is god. He has NEVER thats NEVER lead the league in rushing. I have him on one team and I can think of atleast 4 backs this week I would start in his stead.
So if your other options are better this week by all means bench the man.
So if your other options are better this week by all means bench the man.
sartre
Footballguy
I'll venture to guess that your opponent this week has Tomlinson?
jurb26
Footballguy
Did the same thing last year even after highly pimpiong SA as the bar none #1 overall player in FF.
Worked out great. 
It all depends on who you have as a RB 3.
jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, I kinda thought that shtick would have died after last year.... guess not.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
LT can definitely get shut down by tough opposing RUSH defenses - esp. on the road (which is why I didn't include Denver's games in SD):
2005:
Team: carries-yards-YPC rec.-rec.yards
@ Den: 19-52 2.7 0-0
Pitt: 18-62-3.4 7-68
Mia (believe it or not, they had a good run D in 2005): 21-75-3.6 1-0
@ Ind. 24-76-3.2 4-9
2004:
@Den: 22-60-2.7 3-10
JAX: 19-56-2.1 4-78
NYJets: 19-87-4.6 3-76
Yes, these are selective stats. They are drawn to show that LT CAN have a bad day against tough run Ds - and above are the toughest run Ds he's faced in the last two years
Now, I know that in SOME of these games, he ended up having a good fantasy day due to scoring a TD or two, but, as we all know, TDs can be sporadic if you can't move the ball - and the Ravens are playing OUTSTANDING defense right now. Rush defense especially. In three games, a touch more than 100 yards given up, only 1.78 per rush, and only 1 rush TD on the year. Yes, they have faced creampuff OLs, but even if the Chargers can do twice as well against the Ravens, that is still pretty damn good run defense.
My point? *If* there is a week to pick to bench LT, this is it - EXCEPT in PPR leagues, You simply can not bench LT in PPR leagues. If your RB3 has an especially favorable matchup, consider going with it. My RB3 is TBell and he has the only rush matchup that is tougher than the Ravens.
2005:
Team: carries-yards-YPC rec.-rec.yards
@ Den: 19-52 2.7 0-0
Pitt: 18-62-3.4 7-68
Mia (believe it or not, they had a good run D in 2005): 21-75-3.6 1-0
@ Ind. 24-76-3.2 4-9
2004:
@Den: 22-60-2.7 3-10
JAX: 19-56-2.1 4-78
NYJets: 19-87-4.6 3-76
Yes, these are selective stats. They are drawn to show that LT CAN have a bad day against tough run Ds - and above are the toughest run Ds he's faced in the last two years
Now, I know that in SOME of these games, he ended up having a good fantasy day due to scoring a TD or two, but, as we all know, TDs can be sporadic if you can't move the ball - and the Ravens are playing OUTSTANDING defense right now. Rush defense especially. In three games, a touch more than 100 yards given up, only 1.78 per rush, and only 1 rush TD on the year. Yes, they have faced creampuff OLs, but even if the Chargers can do twice as well against the Ravens, that is still pretty damn good run defense.
My point? *If* there is a week to pick to bench LT, this is it - EXCEPT in PPR leagues, You simply can not bench LT in PPR leagues. If your RB3 has an especially favorable matchup, consider going with it. My RB3 is TBell and he has the only rush matchup that is tougher than the Ravens.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
P.S. - LT still put up decent yardage days against those teams - certainly WORTHY of FF startsm esp. when you factor in that he scored a TD or two in a lot of those games. So, benching him is still not the best move unless you are pretty sure your RB3 has a great shot at going over 100 yards.
toppshelff
Footballguy
He may not perform well since he'll be distracted by the rumors that he was involved in the Kiel case...
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Nope but I would prefer to see hin in the lineup instead of rudi/west that I am facing. And thats a fact.sartre said:I'll venture to guess that your opponent this week has Tomlinson?Billy Ball Thorton said:
chris1969
Footballguy
He may be out on a mission since the rumors of the Keil case.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Billy Ball Thorton said:
So what? I get just as many points for his receiving yardage as his rushing yardage. He's the last back to have caught 100 passes since, IIRC, Larry Centers. He has averaged 1962 combined rush/rec. and double digit TDs for the last five years.No RB in recent memory, including Priest and Faulk, have a five year run like that. Marshal has four years (1998-2001). Priest has three (2001-2003). And, LT is always there at the end of the year - when we need him in our fantasy playoffs.In fantasy terms, he IS god.
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Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Agreed. I wouldn't draft LT necessarily to guarantee I got the #1 RB, but his floor is so high that you're all but ensuring that you got a Top 5 guy. I believe his probability of finishing close to his draft spot is higher than anyone else's.I'm a Ravens fan & there's no doubt that their rush D is playing great. However, they haven't exactly faced a Murderer's Row of RBs so far. LT (& his team) is a whole different animal.Billy Ball Thorton said:
No RB in recent memory, including Priest and Faulk, have a five year run like that. Marshal has four years (1998-2001). Priest has three (2001-2003). And, LT is always there at the end of the year - when we need him in our fantasy playoffs.
In fantasy terms, he IS god.
I'm trying to think of a pair of RBs I'd go in with this week that didn't include LT. I'd play LJ over him. FBGs has Westy, Brown, & SJax ranked over LT & each comes with questions of their own (Westy's dinged, 'Pepper keeps giving the ball to the other team, & Detroit has shown that they can be tough against the run). Of course, in redraft leagues, very few will even have options that good (dynasty's a different story). I think I'd take my (pretty good) chances of LT netting 90 yds & a TD over any of those three.
C
CrossEyed
Guest
Well, let's see, Baltimore has beaten Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Cleveland. Those teams are a combined 0-8 so far and have averaged less than 10 points per game. I'm not sure I assign the term "vaunted" to their D just yet.
Go ahead and start LT.
Go ahead and start LT.
If I had LT on my team, I would start him against the BYE.
nygiants56
Footballguy
Unless you have both LJ vs. SF and Ronnie Brown vs. Houston, start LT..
massraider
Footballguy
I don't think that defense is so vaunted.
Banger
Footballguy
I'm not sure what to think. I think they are a good defense but I think their #'s are seriously skewed by playing the 3 worst offenses in the league to open the season (TB, Oak, Clev). LT certainly won't run wild but a 19-65-1 and 3-22 day is certainly possible. If he gets near the goal line he's money.
fatness
Footballguy
I agree with that. So far the Ravens have shown they're a good defense against bad offenses. Whether they're a good defense against good offenses remains to be seen. And for running the ball it's hard to get better than Tomlinson. I'd no sooner bench him for this game than I'd bench the Ravens' defense.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed. Although benching him down the stretch last year after his rib injury would have been reasonable, and as it turned out, generally the right move.
