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Bengals @ KC - Line opened with Bengals +7 01/23/22 (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
IMO this is a gift. Bengals defense is pretty solid - sure, they're on the road at Arrowhead, but this is a team that can run the ball & play defense, and oh yeah, they're capable of shootouts too. And they just beat the Chiefs in a 34-31 shootout.  Chiefs D seems like a mess right now, and they took some hits last night. And the Chiefs aren't a particularly good pass rushing team. 

That line seems weird to me.  Is this an Admiral Akbar situation, or a gift from the gambling gods? 

Your thoughts? 

 
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Agreed - I said in the game thread last night that I could not see Cincy losing by more than 7.  They’re a very good team and appear to be peaking at the right time.  They have studs on offense (especially at QB).  Is it possible for their defense to play worse than Buffalo’s did? I guess anything is possible but I wouldn’t bank on it.  I expect it to be no different than the other games this weekend (likely a last drive ending it type of situation)

 
I'm gonna disagree. I think K.C. wins by two scores or more. The Bills/Chiefs game decided the Super Bowl winner imop. Bengals can certainly score on anyone,but I just

think The Chiefs will score a lot more than they will this week.

I'll go.....

Chiefs- 38

Bengals- 24

 
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Bengals kicked 8 field goals in two games.  If they don't figure out how to convert those into touchdowns, then I agree with Rubi.

If they do, however, then I think it is a one score finish.  

So, in that respect, I think the line is good.  

 
My wager is already placed, btw, so this isn't me asking for help - just thought it was an unusually high line & would make for good discussion. 

I put my chiefs winnings on Cinci +7. 

 
I like the Bengals in this spot. I think the Bills defense played terrible last night giving the Chiefs everything and anything short. Tyreek lived off catching the ball short and making something happen. Not to mention they couldn't stop the run. I think if Reader has another solid game like he did against King Henry and they dont need to stuff the box to protect the run so they can focus more on Mahommes I think Bengals can keep this interesting. Bengals offense can keep up with anyone. 

 
Timmay said:
I like the Bengals in this spot. I think the Bills defense played terrible last night giving the Chiefs everything and anything short. Tyreek lived off catching the ball short and making something happen. Not to mention they couldn't stop the run. I think if Reader has another solid game like he did against King Henry and they dont need to stuff the box to protect the run so they can focus more on Mahommes I think Bengals can keep this interesting. Bengals offense can keep up with anyone. 
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Agreed. I also feel like Vegas is appealing to the short attention span & the last thing people saw, which was Mahomes/KC as an unstoppable juggernaut - which they absolutely are - but that doesn't mean they're gonna go through Cinci like tissue paper. 

As for the Bengals FGs, they take points where they can & have a quality kicker with a big leg. That just tells me that if they can get within 40, they're scoring 3 at least. That's actually one advantage they have over the Chiefs who's K missed a PAT and a 48 yard FG. Are the Chiefs going to have the confidence to send out Butker from 50+, risking that field position knowing what the Bengals can do? 

I like this game to be close. I'm tempted to bet the Bengals ML at +270, albeit with a smaller wager. I give them a 40% chance to win this game.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Agreed. I also feel like Vegas is appealing to the short attention span & the last thing people saw, which was Mahomes/KC as an unstoppable juggernaut - which they absolutely are - but that doesn't mean they're gonna go through Cinci like tissue paper. 

As for the Bengals FGs, they take points where they can & have a quality kicker with a big leg. That just tells me that if they can get within 40, they're scoring 3 at least. That's actually one advantage they have over the Chiefs who's K missed a PAT and a 48 yard FG. Are the Chiefs going to have the confidence to send out Butker from 50+, risking that field position knowing what the Bengals can do? 

I like this game to be close. I'm tempted to bet the Bengals ML at +270, albeit with a smaller wager. I give them a 40% chance to win this game.
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I'm right there with you.  I give them a 35-40% chance.

With the Raiders/Bengals game, I saw two potential outcomes.  Either the Bengals were going to steamroll them, or the game would be a close, one score game.  I couldn't see the realistic path for the Raiders blowing out the Bengals.

I see this game the same way except opposite.  I can see either KC blows them out, or its a one score game either way.  Bengals do seem to have the kicking advantage, and who the hell would have predicted THAT at the beginning of the year.  I just don't see the Bengals rolling the Chiefs because, well, Mahomes.  (to be fair, I would have said the same thing about the super bowl last year, and look how that turned out.)

So, add that all together, and it seems like a 50/50 proposition with a blowout or a close game.  Didn't the line open at 6?  If so, that tells me people are on the recency bias train already.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
I could see betting both dogs on the moneyline, maybe a little more on SF to equalize the bet. Only one has to win to show a profit.
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Good call.

SF is the dog that keeps on giving - I've had them + points from week 18 on, and they've been very good to me. 

I feel like this line might get to 4-6 if the action is all on the Rams. Opened at 3.5, but after the Rams dominated TB, the general public might be way too invested in LAR. 

Niners have owned the Rams, too. 

 
Cincinnati is 12-7 ATS, 3-0 their last three games and 7-2 on the road.  Somehow they still keep getting lines like this.  I think it ends up around 5.5

 
the rams are scary....the vets they have brought in are producing.....they were an Akers fumble at the end of second quarter from making that game a blowout as they also got the ball to start the third....that fumble and Akers other one and the Kupp fumble and bad snap obviously changed the narrative, but otherwise the rams had that thing in control...Jimmy G still does Jimmy G things sometimes....just IMO think rams cover this one easy...

 
Stinkin Ref said:
the rams are scary....the vets they have brought in are producing.....they were an Akers fumble at the end of second quarter from making that game a blowout as they also got the ball to start the third....that fumble and Akers other one and the Kupp fumble and bad snap obviously changed the narrative, but otherwise the rams had that thing in control...Jimmy G still does Jimmy G things sometimes....just IMO think rams cover this one easy...
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Niners looked a lot worse in -6 degree GB than they did in week 18 in the comeback OT win against these same Rams.

It was an impressive road win at TB. I still think the Niners keep it close. They’re playing with house money at this point, 1 game from the super bowl. The pass rush is legit.

And not for nuthin, in the last stretch of games before the playoffs, Stafford was a pick machine; with more than 1 pick-6.

I’m a Niners fan, so maybe rose-colored glasses; but thanks to the Niners 3-game stretch I am also playing with house money. 

 
I believe KC wins by 10 and maybe even 13.  The Chiefs are in playoff mode now and beat the best team in the NFL a few days ago.  The Bengals barely beat the Titans and an average Raiders team.   Burrow is good but I don’t see this working out for Cincinnati.   

 
FGs and giving up 9 sacks are not going to get it done. The Cincy loss made KC lose the bye. KC realizes how lucky they are to win a coin toss. I think they come out on fire and this is over by half. 

 
DocHolliday said:
I believe KC wins by 10 and maybe even 13.  The Chiefs are in playoff mode now and beat the best team in the NFL a few days ago.  The Bengals barely beat the Titans and an average Raiders team.   Burrow is good but I don’t see this working out for Cincinnati.   
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The Duff Man said:
FGs and giving up 9 sacks are not going to get it done. The Cincy loss made KC lose the bye. KC realizes how lucky they are to win a coin toss. I think they come out on fire and this is over by half. 
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Interesting. 

Curious as to how KC will get to Burrow like the Titans D did? Does KC have a secret pass rush they haven't shown us yet this year? Also the Chiefs secondary is built for shootouts. 

If the Chiefs played better defense, I'd be a little more inclined to believe a double digit loss for Cinci was possible. As it is, the Bengals are a way better defensive team, and not for nothin, have a better running back. 

Running & defense is a pretty good recipe to beat Mahomes & Co. Feel like it'll be a tight game. Hey, I've been wrong before. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Interesting. 

Curious as to how KC will get to Burrow like the Titans D did? Does KC have a secret pass rush they haven't shown us yet this year? Also the Chiefs secondary is built for shootouts. 

If the Chiefs played better defense, I'd be a little more inclined to believe a double digit loss for Cinci was possible. As it is, the Bengals are a way better defensive team, and not for nothin, have a better running back. 

Running & defense is a pretty good recipe to beat Mahomes & Co. Feel like it'll be a tight game. Hey, I've been wrong before. 
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I'd counter The Bills had a better running back,and a running qb and a better defense,#1 in the league. So I'll stick with Chiefs by 2 scores or better.

 
Not understanding the Cinci love.  They barely got past two barely above average teams.  KC crushed the Steelers (not a good team) and just beat likely the best team in football.  Cinci's D isn't that good and Burress can be pressured.  The KC D is at least equivalent to Tenn particularly with how the ended the regular season.

I hope you guys bid the points down, I think KC wins by 17+.

 
Rubi said:
I'd counter The Bills had a better running back,and a running qb and a better defense,#1 in the league. So I'll stick with Chiefs by 2 scores or better.
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I very disagree with the bolded. Singletary is mediocre and had a nice little stretch of productivity. I put him squarely in the CEH category of “decent but unspectacular” RBs. 

 
James Daulton said:
Not understanding the Cinci love.  They barely got past two barely above average teams.  KC crushed the Steelers (not a good team) and just beat likely the best team in football.  Cinci's D isn't that good and Burress can be pressured.  The KC D is at least equivalent to Tenn particularly with how the ended the regular season.

I hope you guys bid the points down, I think KC wins by 17+.
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It’s not Cinci love. It’s love for a +7 point spread. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
It’s not Cinci love. It’s love for a +7 point spread. 
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Cinci barely got by a mediocre Vegas and Tenn team.  Both without anywhere near the weapons of KC.  KC just outscored the most dangerous team in football who'd been on a roll.  Like I said, I hope you guy bid the line down a bit.  I'd be all over it at +10.

And Cinci's pass D is horrible.  Gonna be a bloodbath. 

 
James Daulton said:
Cinci barely got by a mediocre Vegas and Tenn team.  Both without anywhere near the weapons of KC.  KC just outscored the most dangerous team in football who'd been on a roll.  Like I said, I hope you guy bid the line down a bit.  I'd be all over it at +10.

And Cinci's pass D is horrible.  Gonna be a bloodbath. 
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Mediocre? TEN was the 1-seed in the AFC & Henry is arguably the best RB in the NFL. TEN was favored in that game. A home game. 

As for the Raiders, you play the team on your schedule. And THEY WON 26-19, a TD margin of victory is “barely getting by” them? 

ooooookay pal. Sure thing. 👍🏼

 
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James Daulton said:
Not understanding the Cinci love.  They barely got past two barely above average teams.  KC crushed the Steelers (not a good team) and just beat likely the best team in football.  Cinci's D isn't that good and Burress can be pressured.  The KC D is at least equivalent to Tenn particularly with how the ended the regular season.

I hope you guys bid the points down, I think KC wins by 17+.
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Who is Burress? Come on with that weak sh!t. Now I know you are fishing. 

Tenn Def >>> KC Def and the Steelers are garbage this year. 

 
I think kc wins but Cincinnati has shown they can score with most anyone when they can avoid sacks, and kc isn't really a grind the clock team which hurts them at times in games like this. Expect the kc pass rush to romp early and Burrow/ chase to put up numbers again.  As much as kc scored, they did allow a go ahead touchdown in the final two minutes to a guy who already had 3 touchdowns in that game.  I don't think they can stop Cincinnati if they're not getting pressure.  

 
bostonfred said:
I think kc wins but Cincinnati has shown they can score with most anyone when they can avoid sacks, and kc isn't really a grind the clock team which hurts them at times in games like this. Expect the kc pass rush to romp early and Burrow/ chase to put up numbers again.  As much as kc scored, they did allow a go ahead touchdown in the final two minutes to a guy who already had 3 touchdowns in that game.  I don't think they can stop Cincinnati if they're not getting pressure.  
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Agreed - and on the flip side, while Mahomes is a Wizard, Buffalo got to him several times & made him pull a rabbit out of his rear on several plays that mortal men could not have pulled off.

the point being Mahomes magic made KCs OL look a lot better than the box score.

Cincinnati has a very good pass rush. It’ll be interesting to see if they can get to Mahomes as much as BUF did, and if they can cash those checks when they get to the bank, as BUF could not do several critical times. (That one lob while running backwards is still the most unlikely TD I think I’ve ever seen) 

 
Not necessarily in keeping with the prediction argument, but Chase was clocked as the fastest ball carrier on the weekend, running 21.07 MPH on that wide receiver screen he took to the TEN 30. Tyreek was clocked at 20.90 MPH on his "peace out" touchdown. 

I knew Chase could move, but I didn't know it was like that. He struck me as a guy that had game speed rather than clocked speed. (I discount pro day times. I know he ran like a 4.38 or something.)

 
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Forgetting anything technical, just to consider the intangible "it just has that feeling" side of it: it can go either way to me, but I think that goes to the Chiefs.

Chiefs and Mahomes have been here. Three times in a row. And won, twice in a row, including a SB title. Bengals a historically hapless organization.

But, Burrow is just a winner and a fighter, and he is going to want this so badly. And beat the Chiefs already.

 
Timmay said:
Who is Burress? Come on with that weak sh!t. Now I know you are fishing. 

Tenn Def >>> KC Def and the Steelers are garbage this year. 
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Yea the Burress thing was a mistype.  I'll note again, two games against very mediocre opponents, Cinci can't score TDs and barely wins.  KC crushes the team they should crush and puts up 38 on the number one D in football.  Cinci ain't scoring 30+ points unless they lose by 21. 

 
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James Daulton said:
Yea the Burress thing was a mistype.  I'll note again, two games against very mediocre opponents, Cinci can't score TDs and barely wins.  KC crushes the team they should crush and puts up 38 on the number one D in football.  Cinci ain't scoring 30+ points unless they lose by 21. 
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Another poor take. Bengals put up 34 points (4 TD's, 2 FG's) against KC in the regular season. Bengals have scored 30+ points in 7 of their games this year. Bengals scored 54 TD's this year, only 3 less than both KC and Buffalo.  Buffalo defense may be the #1 scoring defense in the league this year, but 1. look who they played (Jets x2, Dolphins x2, Jags, Texans, Pats in a snow/wind fest, Bills went 2-4 on the year vs playoff teams and every time the Bills gave up a lot of points to each) and 2. The Bills defense played terrible against the Chiefs this week. 

 
Timmay said:
Another poor take. Bengals put up 34 points (4 TD's, 2 FG's) against KC in the regular season. Bengals have scored 30+ points in 7 of their games this year. Bengals scored 54 TD's this year, only 3 less than both KC and Buffalo.  Buffalo defense may be the #1 scoring defense in the league this year, but 1. look who they played (Jets x2, Dolphins x2, Jags, Texans, Pats in a snow/wind fest, Bills went 2-4 on the year vs playoff teams and every time the Bills gave up a lot of points to each) and 2. The Bills defense played terrible against the Chiefs this week. 
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We clearly see different things and that's fine.  If you're a Bengals fan I truly wish you luck this week and next.  As an Orioles fan I'm well aware of long long championship droughts. 

 
James Daulton said:
Yea the Burress thing was a mistype.  I'll note again, two games against very mediocre opponents, Cinci can't score TDs and barely wins.  KC crushes the team they should crush and puts up 38 on the number one D in football.  Cinci ain't scoring 30+ points unless they lose by 21. 
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Im so confused. How is Tenn a mediocre opponent? They beat the #1 seed ON THE ROAD AFTER A BYE WEEK. Tenn also beat KC earlier this year 27-3. Tenn also beat BUF earlier this year. Cincy also beat KC earlier in the year. 

 
James Daulton said:
Yea the Burress thing was a mistype.  I'll note again, two games against very mediocre opponents, Cinci can't score TDs and barely wins.  KC crushes the team they should crush and puts up 38 on the number one D in football.  Cinci ain't scoring 30+ points unless they lose by 21. 
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Clearly this is a schtick. 

Calling the 1-seed in the AFC “mediocre” once seemed silly. Doing it twice seems like you’re just trolling.

ignore list just got a little longer. 

Have fun  :fishing:

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Clearly this is a schtick. 

Calling the 1-seed in the AFC “mediocre” once seemed silly. Doing it twice seems like you’re just trolling.

ignore list just got a little longer. 

Have fun  :fishing:
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Geez you guys are tough.  We all know KC started poorly and got their groove late.  Same for Buff.

But you guys clearly don't want to have the discussion so I'll bow out.

 
no dog in the race but I also felt TEN really wasn't that good and one of the "most beatable" #1 seeds in recent memory....but much of that is based on not having Henry firing on all cylinders heading into the post season.....I'm not real big on arguing who beat who and by how much during the regular season....can argue about that all day....kinda hard to explain what I am trying to say, but they didn't really seem to have that "it" factor that would scare you.....which you think it should have with Henry/Brown/Julio....I don't know, maybe its just that Tannehill seems kinda like JAG.....

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Mediocre? TEN was the 1-seed in the AFC & Henry is arguably the best RB in the NFL. TEN was favored in that game. A home game. 

As for the Raiders, you play the team on your schedule. And THEY WON 32-13. 19 point margin of victory is “barely getting by” them? 

ooooookay pal. Sure thing. 👍🏼
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Cincy beat the Raiders 26-19

 
jobarules said:
Why would I cut him some slack" when I completely disagree that they were a mediocre team?
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Because we recognize missteps and hyperbole when it happens. If we give people the benefit of the doubt, we might find a kernel of truth in what they're saying. Tennessee, overall, was one of the weakest one seeds ever, and they got beat quickly at home. 

 
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