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Best Ball community - early season check in (1 Viewer)

Grid71

Footballguy
Hello. Ol Joe has been talking about community and bringing us together for all sorts of new content. Inspired me to make what may be my second or third FBG thread ever. That and a few of us bogging down a player thread with Best Ball content. BB is a funky animal since it's all about off season entertainment. We get to obsess about players and projections while drafting teams all the way up to week 1 kickoff. Then the pressure is off, watch the games and enjoy. No worries about setting lineups. No concerns over waiver pickups. Just watch football and ignore all those teams till week 14. Well, maybe root a little harder for your flag plants.

Introduction. My name is Dave from Ohio (originally PA). Work remotely a good bit on firewalls, routing, switching and contact center stuff. Shoot pool when I can and obsess over football. Fairly new to BB. Dabbled a bit last few years to get a better read on ADP instead of mock drafts. Found it fun especially when the entry is $3-10 per draft. Last year messed up drafting boomer heavy RB teams and over exposed myself with Nick Chubb and Justin Jefferson... oof. It was fun, but didn't win a whole lot back. Still it was very entertaining and i'm back diving in head first. For me it's not about an investment, it's entertainment and fun to puzzle out how to construct a decent roster from any slot & draft room. Trying to get better.

Underdog is where I play under handle H8FULHUCK
122 teams before the NFL draft
200 additional teams so far after the draft - only 23 BBMV rosters for a shot at that sweet sweet $1.5 mill top prize, not maxing that one
Live drafts are great when I can block off the time. Do quite a few slows with an 8 hour clock. Slow drafts help me max out a contest, but live is more fun.

Content: FBG has good stuff mostly from James Brimacombe aka Eaglezzz who calls out risers and fallers, drops some player takes. We can sort ADP specific to BB. I find myself playing youtube live streams of Underdog drafts in the background while at work. Content creators share their takes during live BB drafts and freak out now and then when players get sniped or take jabs at bad drafters in the room paying the rake.

FBG is a great community and hope you would join me to discuss strategies, roster composition, player takes, exposures and anything you'd like to share. Would be cool to get to know some of you better and root for one of us to cash in. Maybe hop into some drafts together, post/critique rosters.
 
Hi I’m Shaun. In TX (originally MA) I started to play a lot of underdog BB the last couple years. Will probably get to 1/2 max on bbm5 after maxing it last year. I like the eliminator so have done some of those. And puppy’s.

For BB content I follow shipchasing, Pat Kerrane, Liam, etc on YouTube. not sure what content creators you follow? Yeah eaglezzz seems to max everything.

One article FBG used to have that I thought was insightful was quality starts but haven’t seen in recent years. Helps understand if you are likely getting a consistent guy or boom/bust type. Strategy is what mix is best? I do use FBG for depth charts, rankings/projections, articles, etc. and
(for redraft/ dynasty (ffpc) I like FBGs weekly content including injuries, def matchups, etc)


Good luck.

Shaunz
 
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Also for bbm4 I was just avg for advance rate to week 15 (24/150). I had 3 teams week 16 but none to finals. I did get 1 puppy, 1 eliminator and 1 superflex big board (pre draft) to week 17 but no big cashes.

I think I was too fragile at Rb in last years with 4-5 average particularly if last one is a guy like Tank Bigsby. Ha. Though I did have 10% kyren last year
 
Also for bbm4 I was just avg for advance rate to week 15 (24/150). I had 3 teams week 16 but none to finals. I did get 1 puppy, 1 eliminator and 1 superflex big board (pre draft) to week 17 but no big cashes.

I think I was too fragile at Rb in last years with 4-5 average particularly if last one is a guy like Tank Bigsby. Ha. Though I did have 10% kyren last year
10% Kyren was gold last year. Didn't hear of anyone having him more than 8%. Impressive ratio making it to week 15 @Shaunz33 you had a good shot to get a team through to BBM finals.

I've casually watched the content creators you've mentioned. Chris Spags is my absolute favorite. He's been in the BBM finals every year so far and drafted most of his rosters on live streams this year. Noticed some of the others seem to laugh off some of Chris' takes which is pretty fun to observe. I feel much better about my teams this year compared to the trash I drafted last year following Mason on Flock.

It's super early, but how are you liking your exposures so far this year? Posting mine shortly.
 
275 Underdog BB teams after the NFL Draft in April
Royalty
2x field
I have Regerts

QB Exposure - These are the guys I am above chalk plus Purdy as the next in line. Biggest bets are on Washington and Houston to put up points this year.
  1. Justin Fields 35.3% Drafted Went overboard here, but figured of all players available in the 18th round, Fields had the most potential to become a league winner in the playoffs. Massive surprise he's been the starter since week 1.
  2. Jayden Daniels 24.7% Drafted
  3. Derek Carr 14.2% Drafted
  4. CJ Stroud 13.1% Drafted
  5. Baker Mayfield 10.9% Drafted
  6. Anthony Richardson 10.5% Drafted
  7. Bryce Young 10.2% Drafted
  8. Will Levis 10.2% Drafted
  9. Jalen Hurts 9.1% Drafted
  10. Kyler Murray 8.7% Drafted
  11. Dak Prescott 8.4% Drafted
  12. Geno Smith 8.4% Drafted
  13. Brock Purdy 7.6% Drafted

Running Back exposures. Very high on Kyren and Jonathan Taylor when taking RB early. Most drafts were hero or zero RB. Sprinkled in stud RB roosters to mix things up when value was there.
Spags sold me on the Bucky Irving story and felt great about that position. Faded White hard and 1/3 of my teams will get a huge boost when Bucky becomes RB1. Spags wasn't high on Jaylen Wright or JK Dobbins. I like both a ton and appears I am 50/50 on that one. Massively excited about Dobbins potential of being a FF league winner. Can't wait for MarShawn Lloyd to get healthy. He will produce big time on limited carries in GB.
  1. Bucky Irving 32.0% Drafted
  2. Jaylen Wright 26.2% Drafted - already had an opportunity with Mostert injury and looked like a scared rookie
  3. Kyren Williams 24.0% Drafted
  4. JK Dobbins 23.6% Drafted
  5. MarShawn Lloyd 21.8% Drafted
  6. Jonathan Taylor 17.1% Drafted
  7. Jerome Ford 16.0% Drafted
  8. Jaylen Warren 15.3% Drafted
  9. James Conner 14.5% Drafted
  10. Jonathon Brooks 14.5% Drafted
  11. Alvin Kamara 14.2% Drafted
  12. Khalil Herbert 14.2% Drafted secretly hoped CHI would trade him to Dallas. He's talented and stuck with terrible coaches.
  13. David Montgomery 13.8% Drafted
  14. Najee Harris 12.7% Drafted
  15. Raheem Mostert 12.4% Drafted
  16. Zack Moss 11.6% Drafted
  17. Chase Brown 10.9% Drafted
  18. Ray Davis 10.9% Drafted
  19. Brian Robinson Jr. 10.9% Drafted
  20. Christian McCaffrey 10.5% Drafted could still be massive winner but no way I take him 1st overall being injured before week 1 and missing a significant chunk of the season.
  21. Saquon Barkley 9.5% Drafted
  22. Bijan Robinson 9.1% Drafted
  23. Nick Chubb 9.1% Drafted
  24. Zach Charbonnet 8.4% Drafted
  25. Blake Corum 8.4% Drafted
  26. Jaleel McLaughlin 8.4% Drafted
  27. Breece Hall 8.0% Drafted
  28. Gus Edwards 8.0% Drafted
  29. Jahmyr Gibbs 8.0% Drafted
  30. Aaron Jones 7.6% Drafted
 
275 Underdog BB teams after the NFL Draft in April
Royalty
2x field
I have Regerts

WR exposures. Rice might be my best personal take overall. Spags may be betting against KC offence boucing back, but I was in. Posted my galaxy brain thoughts on KC in the Rice thread here at FBG. I'm down on Kelce, extremely high on Rice and felt good about Hollywood and Worthy... big whoops on Hollywood. He could have been great in this offense. McLaurin love mostly comes from being high on rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Should go without saying, stacking players on the same offense is a winning strategy in these big tournaments. Doubs was a big mistake, took way too many shares unintentionally. He just kept falling lower than I though he should be and took too much.
  1. Rashee Rice 33.1% Drafted
  2. Terry McLaurin 18.2% Drafted
  3. Hollywood Brown 17.5% Drafted
  4. Romeo Doubs 17.1% Drafted
  5. Tank Dell 16.4% Drafted
  6. Stefon Diggs 15.6% Drafted
  7. Cooper Kupp 14.9% Drafted
  8. George Pickens 14.5% Drafted
  9. Justin Jefferson 14.5% Drafted
  10. Brandon Aiyuk 13.5% Drafted
  11. Xavier Worthy 13.5% Drafted
  12. Jermaine Burton 13.1% Drafted liked his odds of being a big factor this season. Still might come along but not as high on him today.
  13. Odell Beckham Jr. 12.7% Drafted - This is mostly a last round upside pick with a revenge game against Cleveland if the team makes it to the finals. Dart throw I like.
  14. Demarcus Robinson 12.4% Drafted
  15. Calvin Ridley 12.4% Drafted
  16. Tee Higgins 12.4% Drafted
  17. DeVonta Smith 12.4% Drafted
  18. Amari Cooper 12.4% Drafted
  19. Nico Collins 12.0% Drafted
  20. Dontayvion Wicks 10.9% Drafted
  21. Luke McCaffrey 10.9% Drafted
  22. Christian Kirk 10.5% Drafted
  23. Jauan Jennings 10.5% Drafted - Took a decent amount of this guy with all the Aiyuk trade talk. Jumped on the train early but it never left the station. Fortunately for me, he is making solid noise with Aiyuk in town. Lucky bonus!
  24. Mike Williams 9.8% Drafted
  25. Diontae Johnson 9.8% Drafted
  26. Jahan Dotson 9.5% Drafted
  27. Jayden Reed 9.1% Drafted
  28. Tyreek Hill 8.7% Drafted
  29. Zay Jones 8.4% Drafted
  30. Jakobi Meyers 8.4% Drafted
  31. Christian Watson 8.0% Drafted
  32. Rashid Shaheed 8.0% Drafted
  33. Chris Olave 8.0% Drafted
  34. Jordan Addison 8.0% Drafted
  35. Marvin Harrison 8.0% Drafted
  36. Adam Thielen 8.0% Drafted
  37. Puka Nacua 7.6% Drafted

TE exposures. Knowing Arthur Smith offenses rely heavily on TE and Muth being the #1 and only Pickens being a true starting WR in town, thought the volume was a lock. Still waiting... Not thrilled with my takes here so far. Wish I went harder after Bowers just shy of 8% chalk. True stud WR posing as a TE is a good pick. Need to remember that lesson...
  1. Pat Freiermuth 22.9% Drafted
  2. Dalton Schultz 16.7% Drafted
  3. TJ Hockenson 16.0% Drafted
  4. Ben Sinnott 16.0% Drafted
  5. Juwan Johnson 14.5% Drafted
  6. Isaiah Likely 13.8% Drafted
  7. Evan Engram 12.0% Drafted
  8. Dallas Goedert 12.0% Drafted
  9. David Njoku 10.9% Drafted
  10. Trey McBride 10.2% Drafted
  11. Sam LaPorta 9.1% Drafted
  12. George Kittle 8.4% Drafted
  13. Noah Fant 8.4% Drafted
  14. Brock Bowers 7.3% Drafted
  15. Cole Kmet 7.3% Drafted
 
@Grid71
Thanks for sharing. I’ll have to read in detail later and do my version. Btw I see your Rice ownership which I was 2x field on him (16%) but today is concerning. Bucky looked good.

For BBMV you can find useful info here https://bbmdb.com

For some reason I seem to do well in superflex. Right now (which I know is very early) I have 11 of my 26 puppy SF in top 2.

Yeah I never thought much of Flock. Spags is ok. I think he, like Davis Mattek, can turn some folks off by seeming a bit arrogant or over confident at times. (I liked Mattek’s perspective on Kryen last summer so that helped me)
 
I missed this thread during draft season.

I've posted my Underdog tournament exposures here (152 drafts), and here for superflex (17 drafts). Some graphs and opinions from earlier in draft season here.

I like the historical data & analysis from Michael Leone and Hayden Winks.

One place that I haven't followed the historical "what's worked?" data this year is that I invested more than average in RB and less in WR, since I think the year-to-year changes in positional ADP have been an overcorrection.
 
Josh Downs paired with AR looks very good from yesterday's game. Could work out great for you ZWK. Like your QB distribution too. Will dive into Leone and Winks analysis. Thank you for the links.

I only joined 6 superflex this year. Way too early team status are at 2,3,4,5,7 and 10. Have Rashee Rice on 83% of these... ouch.


Has anyone else tried out the new best ball Overlay tool? It looks amazing to me. Helps you manage exposures and identify playoff correlation. I'm planning to use it next year.
 

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