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Best draft day value, so far (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter mon
- Start date
mon
(T)ool
mon
(T)ool
Who else was on the list?
On The Rocks
Footballguy
I hate to say it but I also think you have to consider including Plax Burress.
Easy !
1. A. Petersen ! rounds 3-5 he was had -- will likley be a top 3 RB this season if not outright #1 as a rookie.
2. R. Moss - won't keep up that torrid pace but for a round 5 pick likley being the #1 overall WR - he might even be #1
3. T. Brady - went 4th or 5th round - if he isn't leading every league in FF points I would be shocked !
4. Housh - IMO this guy is the leagues #2 WR and he could be had for a 4th or 5th rounder in a lot of leagues.
5. R. Brown -- was taken in 2nd round in most leagues but his play is a top 5 pick right now !
1. A. Petersen ! rounds 3-5 he was had -- will likley be a top 3 RB this season if not outright #1 as a rookie.
2. R. Moss - won't keep up that torrid pace but for a round 5 pick likley being the #1 overall WR - he might even be #1
3. T. Brady - went 4th or 5th round - if he isn't leading every league in FF points I would be shocked !
4. Housh - IMO this guy is the leagues #2 WR and he could be had for a 4th or 5th rounder in a lot of leagues.
5. R. Brown -- was taken in 2nd round in most leagues but his play is a top 5 pick right now !
mon
(T)ool
Just goes to show, doesn't usually matter what position you draft in, if you know what you're doing. Or get really really lucky!guy thats winning my league had the 14th pick in a 14 team banzai redraft
1.14 portis
2.1 ronnie brown
3.1 roy williams
4.1 randy moss
5.14 tony romo
6.1 marion barber
he's cleaning up right now ...
Team Legacy
Footballguy
So the perfect draft looks like...
1. Addai
2. Housh
3. Ronnie
4. Plax
5. Moss
6. Lamont
7. Romo
8. Witten
Although Romo was going much later than this. Backing up Addai with Keith in Round 11.
Of course, LT at the 1 pick is MUCH nicer.
1. Addai
2. Housh
3. Ronnie
4. Plax
5. Moss
6. Lamont
7. Romo
8. Witten
Although Romo was going much later than this. Backing up Addai with Keith in Round 11.
Of course, LT at the 1 pick is MUCH nicer.
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shakeybarn
Footballguy
Witten is not "value" worth mentioning... comparitively speaking. He's only about 8 or 9 points above Dallas Clark and KW2. Witten's ADP was higher than Clarks. Actually Clark has outperformed Witten (forgot to bye adjust). Even so if you got him late... you are talking about a couple round advantage that nets you 3.5 pts more a week than Desmond Clark. Wooo hoo. Or 3.8 than Owen Daniels. Two guys that went undrafted in many leagues.
ADP has been value... one league I was in, I shook my head at a guy who grabbed him as the 12th pick. Guess he knew something (I had already grabbed him in an auction around the value here:
RB R. Brown $31
RB B. Jacobs $30
RB M. Jones-Drew $28
RB T. Jones $26
RB C. Portis $25
RB A. Peterson (MIN) $22
RB D. McAllister $22
RB E. James $19
RB C. Williams $18
RB M. Lynch $18
Ronnie Brown fell in quite a few drafts.
Best values at EACH position:
QB - Romo, though I could make an argument for Favre or Derek Anderson (if you grabbed him in the 16th round)
RB - ADP, Ronnie
WR - Braylon Moss (even if he went early, he's off the charts even as a 2nd round pick)
TE - Witten, Dallas Clark
K - Folk, many drafts forgot to connect Dallas' offense, and the brand new rookie they gave the job to the week of/before most drafts.
D/ST - Chiefs, though I can't recall seeing many ppl draft them. Packers.. I saw go where they should of, and some at the very end, so that varies.
ADP has been value... one league I was in, I shook my head at a guy who grabbed him as the 12th pick. Guess he knew something (I had already grabbed him in an auction around the value here:
RB R. Brown $31
RB B. Jacobs $30
RB M. Jones-Drew $28
RB T. Jones $26
RB C. Portis $25
RB A. Peterson (MIN) $22
RB D. McAllister $22
RB E. James $19
RB C. Williams $18
RB M. Lynch $18
Ronnie Brown fell in quite a few drafts.
Best values at EACH position:
QB - Romo, though I could make an argument for Favre or Derek Anderson (if you grabbed him in the 16th round)
RB - ADP, Ronnie
WR - Braylon Moss (even if he went early, he's off the charts even as a 2nd round pick)
TE - Witten, Dallas Clark
K - Folk, many drafts forgot to connect Dallas' offense, and the brand new rookie they gave the job to the week of/before most drafts.
D/ST - Chiefs, though I can't recall seeing many ppl draft them. Packers.. I saw go where they should of, and some at the very end, so that varies.
DawgPoundNJ
Footballguy
I'm a Browns fan and I wouldn't touch Braylon with a 10 foot pole with the way the QB situation was handled in the offseason. This guy has came a long way in a short period of time in terms of work ethic and maturity. I believe it was 25% growing up, and 75% due to Rob Chudzinski who as coordinator is playing to his players' strengths. Of course, phenomenal pass protection by Joe Thomas, Steinbach, and co. is enabling Anderson to sit in the pocket and get the ball to these guys without Frye's happy feet.
With the Browns' easy playoff schedule, I am going to try to make a run for him now...
With the Browns' easy playoff schedule, I am going to try to make a run for him now...
shakeybarn
Footballguy
I'll beat ya with this team1 - Addai2 - ADP3 - Brady4 - Plax5 - Moss6 - Braylon7 - wild card8 - Pit D9 - Witten (ADP was supposedly the 10th)10 - Pit D15 - Derek Anderson ;-)16 - Derrick Ward ;-)
shakeybarn
Footballguy
I targeted Edwards in every league (to pat oneselves back)... his growth curve was right there... I actually called him "This Year's Lee Evans"... sorry if that jinx' him for next year... but:32/512/361/884/6I don't ALWAYS believe in the 3rd year breakout, but the odds were stacked IN his favor for that. and that wasn't with Peyton Manning those years. Charlie FryeDerek Anderson ( a rookie )Trent DilferI mistakenly figured the Brown would be gawd awful, and get so much come from behind, garbage, practice time.... as well.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Even in an undervalue Thread... Dallas Clark still gets no respect... hes top 3 in avg FF scores per week in my PPR and has 5 TDs in 5 games.
I've seen drafts where Daniels was taken before him.. thats value
I've seen drafts where Daniels was taken before him.. thats value
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Happy: Clark at 8.08 and Witten at 9.02
Sad: Passed on Brady at 3.02 (for Portis
) and he went at 3.03 (!).
Sad: Passed on Brady at 3.02 (for Portis
) and he went at 3.03 (!).Darth Cheney
Footballguy
One team I have Romo, Moss, Barber, Winslow II the other I have ADP, Barber, Edwards, Winslow II.
The Reytheist
Footballguy
Based on the last Consensus ADP...LaMont Jordan in the 7th. Witten in the 8th. Favre in the 9th. Pittsburgh in the 10th.
bryan11joseph
Footballguy
10 Team League
1.01 LaDanian Tomlinson
2.10 Tom Brady
9.08 Jason Witten
13.09 Wes Welker
Like cjack, I also have Willie Parker, TO, Calvin Johnson
1.01 LaDanian Tomlinson
2.10 Tom Brady
9.08 Jason Witten
13.09 Wes Welker
Like cjack, I also have Willie Parker, TO, Calvin Johnson
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Church of Iggy Pop
Footballguy
I stole Dallas Clark at 11.12 in a 12-team redraft.
Guess I could fib a bit and say he was my 12.01, just to make it sound even more outrageous. 
Lest you think I am a draft guru, I also blew my 3.12 pick on Lee Evans :X Speaking of draft day value, in the same league, I drafted Nick Folk at 18.01. This was met with blank looks and a few hoots. Guy behind me even drafted Martin Gramatica, and was congratulated by several other owners for signing the Cowboys kicker. Thanks to footballguys.com, I had better intel.
mon
(T)ool
Wow, nice draft.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Got Clark off the WW in my 10-team league. Plan to roll 2-TEs the rest of the way (I have Gates)-QG
zoonation
Footballguy
how did you get two picks in the first round?
Swampy
Footballguy
Wow Brady in the 4th, and Alexander in the 2nd? Whats the number of teams in your league? Im guessing 8.How about this in one league?Brady 4thPlaxico 5thWitten 9thAlthough Alexander in the second isn't helping.
redman
Footballguy
Wow, impressive draft.guy thats winning my league had the 14th pick in a 14 team banzai redraft
1.14 portis
2.1 ronnie brown
3.1 roy williams
4.1 randy moss
5.14 tony romo
6.1 marion barber
he's cleaning up right now ...
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Qb's: Brady, Romo, Farve Palmer
WR: Moss, Edwards, Buress
Te: Witten, Daniels
RB: ADP, Mb3, Brown Jordan (early on)
SOD- Nick Folk.....LOL
WR: Moss, Edwards, Buress
Te: Witten, Daniels
RB: ADP, Mb3, Brown Jordan (early on)
SOD- Nick Folk.....LOL
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Quote to add this is not my draft, just value plays looking back.
delusional
Footballguy
Guy in my league is 6-0 with Romo & Moss
Romo
Westbrook / MJD
Moss / Colston
Shockey
Josh Brown
Giants D
yea outside of Romo & Moss..you could say Westbrook since he is averaging 100+yds a game.
Highest scoring team?
Brady
LT /
CJ / TJ Hous
thats it, rest of his team blows but is 4-2 and the points leader
Romo
Westbrook / MJD
Moss / Colston
Shockey
Josh Brown
Giants D
yea outside of Romo & Moss..you could say Westbrook since he is averaging 100+yds a game.
Highest scoring team?
Brady
LT /
CJ / TJ Hous
thats it, rest of his team blows but is 4-2 and the points leader
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
Tom Brady - far and away the best FF QB right now - Anderson runner up
Randy Moss - of course, Braylon Edwards a Runner Up
RB - maybe Edge ? He's been consistant, probably Peterson ?
TE - Gates - one of the top 4-5 in every league, cannot draft him soon enough
Randy Moss - of course, Braylon Edwards a Runner Up
RB - maybe Edge ? He's been consistant, probably Peterson ?
TE - Gates - one of the top 4-5 in every league, cannot draft him soon enough
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
A guy in our auction league took Ronnie Brown, Plaxico, Housh, Gates, Favre and McGahee. It's his first year playing. 
nyGIANTSnj
Footballguy
TOMLINSON
The Jerk
Footballguy
I'll gladly give props to an owner that just nails each of his top 5 picks, but in many cases, we're talking about Romo and Witten being 6th round or later picks. If the owners were that good -- or that certain these players would exceed all expectations -- then they shouldn't have waited so long to draft them. I'm not saying make Romo a first round pick, as you should gauge other owners' interest. But you don't want to miss out on the player either.Witten in particular is infuriating me this year. I had him last year for his whopping 1 TD. He didn't get more than six receptions in any one game. Now that's routine. Of course, this year I selected Shockey. His last five full games in 2006 saw him get 32 receptions for 305 yards and 2 TDs. Now he's a decoy and a blocker. Makes meMr. Nasty said:
george
Footballguy
Happy day to you. Must be nice to play in your league where all is right and everyone drafts by the book. I was surprised that Alexander lasted to the 1/2 elbow, but Brady in the 4th is not a surprise. 12 teams. Many folks were down on SA during the offseason. I still expected him to go top 10 though,.Swampy said:Wow Brady in the 4th, and Alexander in the 2nd? Whats the number of teams in your league? Im guessing 8.How about this in one league?Brady 4thPlaxico 5thWitten 9thAlthough Alexander in the second isn't helping.
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
I'm in one league where a guy took ADP at 1.05 ( ), Steve Smith at 2.08, Brady at 3.05, Moss at 4.08, Rackers at 9.05, Anthony Gonzalez (IND) at 8.08... Yeah, he's pretty much destroying the league.
), Steve Smith at 2.08, Brady at 3.05, Moss at 4.08, Rackers at 9.05, Anthony Gonzalez (IND) at 8.08... Yeah, he's pretty much destroying the league.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I made out like a bandit with TEs in one league... drafted Heap and Daniels (19th rd at the time, this was May)... then package Heap away in a deal that included Clark... thinking I was taking a hit at TE. Clark is in the Top 5 and Daniels is just on the outside in my PPR.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
is it redraft??? I could understand a little if its dynasty.I'm in one league where a guy took ADP at 1.05 (), Steve Smith at 2.08, Brady at 3.05, Moss at 4.08, Rackers at 9.05, Anthony Gonzalez (IND) at 8.08... Yeah, he's pretty much destroying the league.
I think I understand what you're trying to say, but it's not as simple as saying Romo should have been taken early if you knew he would be good. A successful draft strategy is one that identifies guys who are undervalued based on your own projections. Then you have to use some outside information, like mock drafts, average rankings, etc. to get a gauge on when players are typically picked. You don't want to take Romo in the third round just because you think he'll perform as a third round QB should, you want to take him in the lowest round possible, while not missing out. You may miss out here or there, after all you need to take some calculated risks so you don't reach on every pick, but you'll get the majority of players you target if you've done your homework.Now in my case, I felt very strongly about ADP, so I took him in round 2. I was fairly certain he would not make it back around to me in round 3, based on my league's tendencies, mock draft info available, etc., and I knew for almost certainty, that he would not be around in round 4. With someone like Romo, I thought he was undervalued, but not so much so that I was going to take him in round 3. I actually took Kitna as my number one QB in round 5 and took Romo in round 7, not because I needed a back-up QB at that point, but because I thought his upside at that point was too good. That's the key, identifying players with value and potential upside that exceed the consensus projections or mock draft results.My first 12 rounds in a 12 teamer went like this:W. ParkerADPOwensCalvin JohnsonKitnaB. EdwardsRomoDeAngelo WilliamsL. JordanCurryWittenO. DanielsI suppose some of those may have been reaches at the time, and some guys I might have gotten lucky on, but the bottom line is you're identifying the right players and determining when to pick them based on the available information, without overspending. I couldn't draft ADP, Parker, Owens, Edwards, Romo, etc. all in the rounds where I thought they would produce, because they would all be top 3 round picks, but rather, I have to figure out how to get the majority of them on my roster. I may miss on a couple, Moss was a guy I wanted but, I would have had to have drafted him in round 3 to get him this year in my draft, and while he's proved to be worth a round 3 pick or better, I had to take a calculated risk. Done correctly, you'll hit on more than you'll miss, and your team will benefit.Or, you can just attribute people getting Romo or Witten to luck.I'll gladly give props to an owner that just nails each of his top 5 picks, but in many cases, we're talking about Romo and Witten being 6th round or later picks. If the owners were that good -- or that certain these players would exceed all expectations -- then they shouldn't have waited so long to draft them. I'm not saying make Romo a first round pick, as you should gauge other owners' interest. But you don't want to miss out on the player either.Witten in particular is infuriating me this year. I had him last year for his whopping 1 TD. He didn't get more than six receptions in any one game. Now that's routine. Of course, this year I selected Shockey. His last five full games in 2006 saw him get 32 receptions for 305 yards and 2 TDs. Now he's a decoy and a blocker. Makes meMr. Nasty said:
Caesar
Footballguy
drafted from the 12 slot in a 12 team redraft. went a little something like this..
1.12 Anotonio Gates (got a lot of crap for this, but the guy must not have read that TEs get 2 ppr)
2.01 Chad Johnson (Struggled here, cuz I always liked Housh better but knew he wouldn't fall)
3.12 Portis (meh, ok)
4.01 Brandon Jacobs
5.12 Randy Moss
6.01 Carnell Williams (cut)
7.12 Santonio Holmes
8.01 Marion Barber III
9.12 Isaac Bruce
10.01 Brett Favre (didn't even start him until week 4.. just wasn't a believer)
11.12 Alex Smith (yep the QB that's hurt) (cut)
12.01 Owen Daniels
13.12 too embarrassed to admit Rex (cut)
14.01 Minnesota D
15.12 Michael Pittman (good handcuff to Caddy... for about a week) (cut)
16.01 Nate Kaeding
17.12 Trent Green (cut)
18.01 Brandon Jones
Have added CPep, Tenn D, Chris Perry (hopeful), Ted Ginn (hopeful)
Not the perfect draft, but the moss/favre has lifted me. Scraped by last week with some less than stellar performances.
I am 6-0 and 100 points up on the next highest points...
1.12 Anotonio Gates (got a lot of crap for this, but the guy must not have read that TEs get 2 ppr)
2.01 Chad Johnson (Struggled here, cuz I always liked Housh better but knew he wouldn't fall)
3.12 Portis (meh, ok)
4.01 Brandon Jacobs
5.12 Randy Moss
6.01 Carnell Williams (cut)
7.12 Santonio Holmes
8.01 Marion Barber III
9.12 Isaac Bruce
10.01 Brett Favre (didn't even start him until week 4.. just wasn't a believer)
11.12 Alex Smith (yep the QB that's hurt) (cut)
12.01 Owen Daniels
13.12 too embarrassed to admit Rex (cut)
14.01 Minnesota D
15.12 Michael Pittman (good handcuff to Caddy... for about a week) (cut)
16.01 Nate Kaeding
17.12 Trent Green (cut)
18.01 Brandon Jones
Have added CPep, Tenn D, Chris Perry (hopeful), Ted Ginn (hopeful)
Not the perfect draft, but the moss/favre has lifted me. Scraped by last week with some less than stellar performances.
I am 6-0 and 100 points up on the next highest points...
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How's this for a young kid in our league (another owner's son we needed a player a few years back and he's been kicking ### so we said let's keep him)
1. LT
2. Edge - in the process of trading for E.Manning
3. ADP
4. Walker
5. RMoss
6. Cutler - to be replaced by E.Manning (he would have had Romo here if I hadn't taken him)
7. Edwards
And we play 3 WRs!
1. LT
2. Edge - in the process of trading for E.Manning
3. ADP
4. Walker
5. RMoss
6. Cutler - to be replaced by E.Manning (he would have had Romo here if I hadn't taken him)
7. Edwards
And we play 3 WRs!
The Jerk
Footballguy
It's a little bit of both. I was trying not to write a manuscript. And what you said I mostly agree with. However, not "overspending" leaves a lot to chance. I think it will help if I give you an example.In one league, I targeted Joseph Addai as my first round pick, but given the league setup (QB TDs equal to all other positions and 1 pt for each 10 yard increment on TD length), Peyton Manning was a better projected value to me, so I drafted him then. It's the first time I've ever drafted a QB in the first round, and probably the last, as even in this league, it prevents a value QB from falling to you later. I had planned on waiting to around the sixth round to draft a QB in the Romo/Roethlisberger, etc. tier. Now my strategy changes. To cut to the chase here, my team is solid, but the team drafting later than me in the first round ended up with Addai. Due to other owners choosing (in my opinion) lesser QBs, he also ended up with Romo in the NINTH round. So in my opinion, he was lucky to have Romo due to the way the draft flowed. There's no way Romo's there except for the fact that I already had a QB. If anyone else had thought like me -- and I couldn't believe it as the draft unfolded that they did not -- he would have been long gone. I almost picked him in the 9th round because I didn't want to be disgusted with the value going elsewhere. (Mistake by me in not grabbing him.) The reverse situation happened last year to me. I banked my draft strategy in part on the fact that McNabb would be there in the 5th round. However, another owner selected him two slots ahead of me. The net difference in QB points is the main reason this owner won the championship over me. You can't call the same strategy great (or at least not call it all brilliance and no luck) because it worked for onwer A in 2007 when a similar strategy did not work in 2006 for owner B.Also this year, I flipped a coin in the 11th round and selected Watson over Witten at TE, mostly because I had Witten last year and he underwhelmed me with his 1 TD season. So the onwer who got Witten is to be applauded for draft strategy?Look, I think we're mostly in agreement in that a value pick is only a value pick if you wait for it, and that waiting longer is better, but only if you don't wait TOO long. Then it becomes a value pick to one of your competitors. That's the distinction I'm trying to make. I wasn't as thorough in my first effort, and I'm not sure that I'm entirely clear even here, but I wouldn't call it all skill, just like any other part of FF, it's a combination of skill and luck. Sometimes it's just your year. Other times it's simply not. The good owners put themselves into position to make it be "their year" more often than the poor owners.
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