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in a keeper league, I was forced 9due to contract to move Ray Rice). The offer that caught my eye was McFadden and David Wilson for Rice, because I could keep Wilson an extra year since he is a rookie...this was about 4 weeks back, and I had Gordon as my "rookie keeper". I still have Gordon, yet 4 weeks ago, I thought it was a no brainer to drop him for Wilson...now I am wondering which one to keep. My friend is a die hard Browns fan and an author (he wrote the book "On being Brown" about the Browns...if you are a Brownie, or just a football fan (especially of a crummy team) it is a wonderful read), and the guy he is the most enthuesed about is Gordon.'Banger said:
That's opinion and not fact. They have 2 excellent RBs.
As it stands right now 2013 looks like a mediocre draft class, 2014 looks to be a very strong draft class. This is pure speculation but that is what this thread is all about, I am borderline on the playoffs right now, if I make the playoffs or don't win the one of the top couple of spots I will try moving it to another owner for his 2014 first rounder, I will also try to move my second in 2013 and 2014 for another 1st in 2014, lastly I have a couple of aging veterans that still produce some, I will try to move them for a 2014 first and will add in a draft pick if I have too.'matttyl said:
He's had some stints as a high workload back, though. He had 80 carries in 3 games earlier this year (including a pair of 30 carry games). Over the second half of 2009, he had 161 carries (20 per game, 320 over a full season). Do you really want to bet against him ever becoming a 250+ touch guy? Especially as low as his price is right now?'Dr. Awesome said:
Yes. Miles better. Whoever winds up being the consensus #1 in the 2013 class would probably be #5 at best in the 2014 class. I came into this season owning four 2013 firsts and one 2014 first. Now I own one 2013 first and four 2014 firsts, and I'm still trying to move that last 2013. I haven't been trading them straight up, but I've been consistently focusing on selling 2013s and buying 2014s. And this was even before Marcus Lattimore destroyed his knee, knocking out the only RB in this class who was likely to earn a first round grade from the scouts.'matttyl said:
Yes, their value is inflated by the weakness of this dynasty RB crop, but given the lack of talent on the horizon, if you want a good young RB, these are the only three guys 24 or under who are still gettable (assuming McCoy, Richardson, and Martin are off the table). Personally, I want nothing to do with Turner, Gore, or SJax- they're lagging behind these three guys already, and their value is only going to continue to drop precipitously from here on out. I'd trade borderline rb1 value for those guys. A low-end WR1 (say, Dez or VJax), maybe a mid-tier QB (Stafford).'Coeur de Lion said:
I'm still new to dynasty and trying to nail down values, but where would you slot those RB prices in terms of pick value? Mid-1st?
Yes, an RFA. So if the Saints don't tender him (he was undrafted), then he could get a shot elsewhere. I doubt any team would sign him to be a starter, but maybe he could battle for a starting gig somewhere.
Not that I'm doubting you at all, but do you have any names? I've always been one to make a trade to acquire a future 1st in my 10 team dynasty league. I would do it to free up a roster spot and grab a guy off the waivers and "bank" the pick. I'm sitting on 3 1sts in 2013 and currently 4 in 2014. Nothing is stopping me from moving those 2013s to 2014s, but I was rather excited about getting one of the WRs coming out in 2013 and maybe one of the top 2 QBs as well. I know the Lattimore injury really threw things off at the top a bit, but you'd rather wait a full additional year to get a 2014 player at the top of the draft than to get one of the guys in this coming draft?
My 2 picks in 2013 are going to be 4-6 more than likely, and I'm wondering if grabbing an Allen or Woods would be better than what I could get in a player now or maybe in a lower pick in 2014.
A lot of new players overrate picks. Go back in a leagues history, or wherever you can find old fantasy drafts, and look at players picked for the last 5 years. There are a lot of busts and few great players. It's a bit of a lottery. The last 2 years probably skew the data with Green, Julio, Richardson and D.Martin taken. However, usually the top 3 are a much higher chance of being good. After that it really does get pretty hit and miss.
When the new regime comes in. get J. Baldwin now on the cheap as well.. doubt the Chefs give D Bowe a contract'zamboni said:
My league's history of 1st round picks:2012- 1 Richardson, 2 Luck, 3 Martin, 4 RG3, 5 Wilson, 6 Blackmon, 7 Floyd, 8 Fleener, 9 Hillman, 10 Kuechly (yes, the LB!)2011 - 1 Ingram, 2 Leshoure, 3 Ryan Williams, 4 D Thomas, 5 Julio, 6 Hunter, 7 Vereen, 8 Green, 9 Little, 10 D Carter2010 - 1 Mathews, 2 Best, 3 Spiller, 4 Bryant, 5 Hardesty, 6 B Tate, 7 McCluster, 8 Demaryius, 9 Dwyer, 10 G Tate2009 - 1 Moreno, 2 Harvin, 3 D Brown, 4 Beanie, 5 McCoy, 6 Crabtree, 7 S Greene, 8 Nicks, 9 Maclin, 10 A BradshawYes I know hindsight is always 20/20, but I remember folks raving about the 2011 class. Looks like only 2 hits out of my league's first 10 drafted. So is 2014 that much of a can't miss?
A lot depends on format. But, it would take more than a mid-first to get any of those 3 from me, especially Murray. You just can't trade a young workhorse back (and all 3 are, right now)for a WR prospect, and that is what I think the mid 1st value will be. If a few guys end up in great places, that could change. Martin wasn't a 1st round pick at this point in the process.
Own Gordon in 4 dynasties, and I am not selling. After he went large for a second long td, I received an offer of 3 seconds......turned it down.Kid is legit....
The problem is that there is a domino effect. Are there players in 2013 as good as the typical 4-6 picks? Yes, but you won't get them with a 4-6 pick, since they'll be going 1-3 thanks to the vacuum at the top. And guys who would work great in the 7-10 range will instead be going in the 4-6 range, and so on down the line. There are good players coming in next year, but not really anyone as good as the pick you'll have to use to get them.
I would trade a pair of mid-to-late 2013 firsts for any of those three. I'd also trade a top-3 first for any one of them straight up without hesitating for a second. Hell, I'd give a top 3 first and top 3 second for them.
Keenan Allen and Robert Woods are good receivers, but they're clearly behind 2014's Sammy Watkins and Marquise Lee. There are 5 or 6 exciting young RBs, and I'd be willing to bet at least two of them survive the gauntlet to earn a first round grade, which gives us two more than we'll have this year- and that number includes Lattimore himself, who could reestablish himself with a strong recovery.
I remember people raving about the top 3 in 2011- Ingram, Green, and Julio- while considering the rest a pretty average bunch. I liked Ryan Williams a lot before he got hurt, was really excited about Cobb (who had huge talent, but no immediately clear path to production with all those mouths to feed in GB), and thought Little was a pretty solid WR in the late first. That's a pretty solid success rate. And, honestly, there were red flags with Ingram, who really slid down the draft board at the end. Even at the time, I much preferred 2012, with Richardson (a much better prospect than Ingram), Luck, and Blackmon (who disappointed a bit and was later replaced with Griffin at the top of my board). I'm really excited about Lee and Watkins next year, and think some of those RBs are going to be huge successes if for no reason other than that there's such a talent drought at the position right now.
That is the point about buying 2014 picks, most drafts are loaded with busts and a few homeruns, however 2011 and 2012 seem to be the exception. 2014 looks like it will be another exception, so load up on those picks now before everyone figures it out.
I think he might be the back that will drive people nuts, one year he will be top 10 the next year he will have nagging injuries all year and barely be startable, so look for him to bust out next year then sell him high.
In the top 3? Yes. Beyond that, no. The whole class isn't staggered just because the top is weak. A better way to think about it is that instead of there being say 3 first round WRs and 3 second round WRs, there are 6 second round WRs. So once you get past the first few picks, the value is about on par with what you'd expect in a given year. The guys who will go late 1st-early 2nd in most leagues aren't much different from the Pead/Quick/Fleener/Randle/Hill types who went there the past year. The difference is no Luck, RG3, Trent, Griffin, Blackmon.
This is the problem with trying to acquire a guy like Gordon right now. After seeing him make a few big plays, all of his owners are assuming that he's the long term real deal. So while he seems like a good guy to target in theory, his actual price will probably be pretty high and the margin for error will be thin since he'll already be valued on par with established WRs. I would only make a move for him now if I was convinced he was going to be a top 15 type moving forward.
I find Denarius Moore intriguing. How do you guys think he stacks up to someone like... Randall Cobb? For dynasty, which of the following combinations would you prefer to own:
It is very very close, if you told me Nicks would play 13 + games a year and be reasonable healthy doing it I would pick that side. I think I would take the Fitzgerald side because you know Arizona isn't going to sit on their quarterbacks this year and any decent quarterback will put Fitz back in the top 5 for receivers for the next 3 or 4 years.
I prefer Nicks and Cobb by quite a bit. I think many dynasty owners overrate youth, but if you think this comparison is close from a performance standpoint, age should be the clincher: Nicks (24) and Cobb (22) over Fitz (29) and Moore (23).
For those suggesting Trent Richardson, what is the market value? Anyone involved in a Richardson lately?
Hard to say. I offered two firsts and Jonathan Baldwin and got denied (not surprised) so I'd say the price is extremely steep
I don't think there will be a consensus #1. I would say Hunter and Allen would be my early favorites to have the top ADP, but a lot can and will change. I wouldn't be surprised to see some relatively unheralded RB have a strong season + combine and possibly jump into the first round ala Doug Martin, Chris Johnson, Joseph Addai, and Donald Brown (none touted as elite prospects until very late in the process). Who will it be? Maybe Gio Bernard. Maybe someone like Kenjon Barner or Joseph Randle (though I really wouldn't bet on either). Even if no RB goes in round one, a lesser prospect could contend for the 1.01 rookie spot if he were to land in the right system (i.e. Green Bay or Atlanta). At WR, I would not be surprised to see Marcus Davis (Virginia Tech) or Markus Wheaton (Oregon State) hear his name called in the top 32 picks in April, which would put either squarely in the mix. They both have the workout metrics to blow the doors off the combine and really boost their stock (in reality, there stock is already high, they just don't have the name regonition cachet yet).
As a Richardson owner, yes, it is. He is pretty much untradable unless the team that owns him is crazy deep at RB AND weak at another important position. Many dynasty owners realize the thinking of "the winner of the trade is the one who gets the best player" - and there are few players that are better than him with his upside. No amount of "very good" = 1 stud.
Only way you trade him is if someone overpays massively. There are guys like Julio, Luck, and Green who might have similar career value, but in most leagues it is still much harder to find a serviceable RB than WR or QB. Richardson is my #1 overall player for next year's start-up drafts and there's nobody that I'd trade him straight up for in most start 2 RB formats that aren't skewed towards QB.
I'm going to assume that any RG owner willing to sell hasn't actually been watching the games. Because when I watch RG, I see an accurate passer throwing to receivers that simply cannot catch the ball.
I'm with you on Hernandez. I don't want to trade him away only to capitalize on the potential I've been hoping for.
I only say Hernandez is a nice buy low because of experience. I had an owner in the hunt offer me Hernandez for Bennett and a 2013 2nd and I took it.
