Best of the 2010 RBs Coming Out of College (1 Viewer)

[cobalt_27]

Say something compelling about your top choice.

In addition, say something about one of these choices that you think predicts that he will fail to live up to expectations in the NFL.

 

[EBF]

Here's how I have it right now:

1. Jonathan Dwyer - Has the size/speed/skill combo of an NFL starter. Should be a first round pick next year.

3. CJ Spiller - Elite burst and speed. Breaks a lot of big plays. Received a first round grade from the NFL advisory committee before returning to Clemson for his senior year. A Chris Johnson type who might work best in a committee due to his lack of conventional size and power.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXPyVblpqRc

Others:

Jahvid Best - Dynamic talent and athleticism, but poor size and durability. Overrated as an NFL prospect.

DeMarco Murray - Some people love this guy. I don't see it. I think he's a second day pick.

Joe McKnight - More hype than production to this point. Poor man's Reggie Bush.

Keiland Williams - Underachiever with a size/speed combo that could see him surprise in the NFL.

Charles Scott - Skilled player with a bad body. Could be a 3rd-4th round pick.

Derrick Washington - Good frame and skills. Looks a little sluggish to me.

 

[broncofan13000]

Dwyer is the best back hands down. Elite size and speed. I like best more then spilled at this point but both could be first rounders. Blount should be in the conversation for best back in the country. Darren Evans is another to keep an eye on

 

[Balco]

All have question marks for me right now.

I will say that CJ Spiller looked special in the games I watched. He looked 3 steps faster than anyone on the field.

With that said, I have never seen him block, and rarely saw him run inside.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

i see Murray is on the list, of course he's far more exciting to watch.........Chris Brown is a pretty damn solid NFL prospect. Day 1 type talent

a guy i like as a sleeper for the future is Brandon Minor of Michigan. he has more than his fair share of injuries but he's supremely talented and has good measureables.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I voted Dwyer, but I am concerned about the amount of abuse he takes with all those naked plunges into the line. It seems like half the plays Tech runs involve Dwyer fighting 6+ tacklers in the middle of the field. It's awesome that he often still gains good yardage on those plays, but my worry is that he will come into the NFL with effectively more mileage on his body than most backs.

 

[offdee]

TIER 1:

1) Jonathan Dwyer (Georgia Tech): I see a special runner in Dwyer....great combination of size and speed that will translate beautifully at the next level. He's a mirror image of Jonathan Stewart.

TIER 2:

2) C.J Spiller (Clemson): elite speed but doesn't have the body type that NFL GM's will ever trust to be an every down back year in and year out. Will be a 1b RB option his entire career, with a few top notch seasons if the stars align (see Steve Slaton)

3) Jahvid Best (Cal): see C.J. Spiller's writeup, but add'l injury prone risk he'll need to shake this year.

TIER 3:

4) DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma): great athleticism, but lacks natural RB instincts (vision, setting up blocks, etc.)

5) Stafon Johnson (USC): a poor man's LenDale White. Solid RB that will have a long shelf life on an NFL team, but not special in any one area that will allow him to ever be "the man".

6) Darren Evans (Virginia Tech): Good balance, power and vision. Doesn't have top end speed and seems to lack the "it" factor.

TIER 4:

7) Charles Scott (LSU): a poor man's Stafon Johnson.

8) LaGarrett Blount (Oregon): big dude with some speed for his size, but nowhere near the agility and strength of Brandon Jacobs (who many will undoubtedly compare him to)

 

[CalBear]

I don't really know the ones other than Best, but Best is a legit pro prospect. He has sprinter's speed, with great football moves, and he's quite strong for his size. Check out this highlight video:

Don't pay attention to the long runs--we know he's fast. Look at how many tackles he breaks, and at his willingness to lower his shoulder and initiate contact. Best is a football player--as a freshman he even played as a gunner on punt coverage and made some big hits.

Best's style is closer to Justin Forsett and JJ Arrington than it is to Marshawn Lynch, but he is a much better running back than either Forsett or Arrington. He may not be a 300-carry guy, but I expect him to be very successful in a Chris Johnson type role.

 

[ChrisCooleyFan]

I'd add

Rb RB James Starks Buffalo was thought as a 1st rounder last year

RB LeGarrette Blount Oregon

Dwyer plays in an option offense, therefore he will be terrible at picking up the blitz, we all know know, this is the big killer in college to pro backs. I also thin Minor will be hurt by this playing with RR for 2 years, however Slaton did pick this up quick.

 

[offdee]

RB James Starks Buffalo was thought as a 1st rounder last year

by who?

 

[Multiple Scores]

Voted for Dwyer.

Dwyer is a legit 1st rounder and Spiller is a fringe 1st rounder, the rest is a mess. I am not very high on the 2010 class from a fantasy perspective at this time, let's hope some emerge because next years class looks very weak fantasy wise.

 

[EBF]

5) Stafon Johnson (USC): a poor man's LenDale White. Solid RB that will have a long shelf life on an NFL team, but not special in any one area that will allow him to ever be "the man".

I see him as more of a Matt Forte type. No blazing speed or jaw-dropping jukes, but good size, feet, and versatility. He was USC's punt returner last season, which indicates that he might have nice potential in the passing game. You don't usually see 215+ pound RBs returning punts, especially not at stacked programs like USC where talent is abundant. I'm usually on board with Pac-10 RBs, but I think the draft pundit community is too optimistic about Best and Blount. Best is a great college football player with a rail thin frame that limits his pro upside. He could be dynamite in a committee role getting 10-12 touches per game. Anything more than that and he might break in half.

Blount is a tall, straight-line guy. I think people who haven't seen him play look at the stats and the measurables and think he's a great prospect. I caught a couple of his games last year and came away pretty lukewarm on his prospects. I didn't see much in the way of change of direction skills and I think his running style might get him killed against NFL defenders. He's certainly fast and springy though. I'll keep an open mind and see what happens with him over the next 10-11 months.

 

[Balco]

TIER 3:

4) DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma): great athleticism, but lacks natural RB instincts (vision, setting up blocks, etc.)

I think the big thing with Murray is health, and his upright running style won't help matters. I like what I saw of him, thought he read blocks very well. He can be very good in a 1 cut and go scheme. Speed is not an issue. This is going to be a very important year for him.

 

[kremenull]

5) Stafon Johnson (USC): a poor man's LenDale White. Solid RB that will have a long shelf life on an NFL team, but not special in any one area that will allow him to ever be "the man".

I see him as more of a Matt Forte type. No blazing speed or jaw-dropping jukes, but good size, feet, and versatility. He was USC's punt returner last season, which indicates that he might have nice potential in the passing game. You don't usually see 215+ pound RBs returning punts, especially not at stacked programs like USC where talent is abundant. I'm usually on board with Pac-10 RBs, but I think the draft pundit community is too optimistic about Best and Blount. Best is a great college football player with a rail thin frame that limits his pro upside. He could be dynamite in a committee role getting 10-12 touches per game. Anything more than that and he might break in half.

Blount is a tall, straight-line guy. I think people who haven't seen him play look at the stats and the measurables and think he's a great prospect. I caught a couple of his games last year and came away pretty lukewarm on his prospects. I didn't see much in the way of change of direction skills and I think his running style might get him killed against NFL defenders. He's certainly fast and springy though. I'll keep an open mind and see what happens with him over the next 10-11 months.

This guy has trained much of his life to play football AND run track. Once he is focused strictly on football, which he is now as I've read that he has given up track, he may fill out more in his lower body and hips. Remember, may of these guys are young, Best is a true Jr this year, so I'd assume he is only 20 yrs old (maybe turning 21 by next year's rookie season???), so I'm not ready to say a guy can't fill in physically nor gain some needed weight. What I will say is that he is the most dynamic RB in all of college football, Spiller included. And that is something that can't be taught or manufactured, this kid has "it".

 

[Vision6]

Jahvid Best. No only does he have the blazing speed but he has exceptional balance which allows him to stop on a time and make quick cuts. He doesn't have a feel of a sprinter but of a football player because of his vision and he looks so effortless on the field. That package is rare. He on a different level than the CJ spiller type prospects.

Dwyer is very impressive in his own right and he style translates very well to the pro level but Best is my number one choice because he's such a gamebreaker. I don't like comparing players but Chris Johnson has shown how effective a player of that skill set can be in this era of the NFL.

 

[Balco]

Jahvid Best. No only does he have the blazing speed but he has exceptional balance which allows him to stop on a time and make quick cuts. He doesn't have a feel of a sprinter but of a football player because of his vision and he looks so effortless on the field. That package is rare. He on a different level than the CJ spiller type prospects.

Can you elaborate more on what separates him from Spiller? Serious question. How is Best's blocking.I definitely plan on breaking down a couple of Cali games to see how Best is. I want to see how he is running inside, and his pass blocking. There is no doubting his speed, though.

 

[Balco]

Here is a Best Highlight video:

One thing I notice is what great pass catchers they both are.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I voted Dwyer, but I am concerned about the amount of abuse he takes with all those naked plunges into the line. It seems like half the plays Tech runs involve Dwyer fighting 6+ tacklers in the middle of the field. It's awesome that he often still gains good yardage on those plays, but my worry is that he will come into the NFL with effectively more mileage on his body than most backs.

Legit concern but he'll only have two seasons of that instead of three or four. I expect we'll see Dwyer in the A-Back (slot back) roll some this year with Anthony Allen playing some B-Back (Fullback).

 

[CBower4545]

Would you guys rather have our RBs from this year or grab the guys coming out in 2010?

 

[offdee]

Would you guys rather have our RBs from this year or grab the guys coming out in 2010?

Jonathan Dwyer would be my #1 if all of 2009 and 2010 RB's were lumped together.But after that the majority of the top 2009 RB's are better than the next best 2010 RB's (Spiller and Best). I'd start thinking about Spiller and Best around the LeSean McCoy/Shonn Greene area.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I know he is smallish ... but a guy to keep an eye on is Kendall Hunter, he is prob a good bet for 2011 draft

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I voted Dwyer, but I am concerned about the amount of abuse he takes with all those naked plunges into the line. It seems like half the plays Tech runs involve Dwyer fighting 6+ tacklers in the middle of the field. It's awesome that he often still gains good yardage on those plays, but my worry is that he will come into the NFL with effectively more mileage on his body than most backs.

Legit concern but he'll only have two seasons of that instead of three or four. I expect we'll see Dwyer in the A-Back (slot back) roll some this year with Anthony Allen playing some B-Back (Fullback).

It really isn't a legit concern unless somebody has statistical evidence that college workload / mileage has any bearing on future injury potential.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

LeGarrette Blount is not my top choice,

but he is someone to keep an eye on.

I would like to see him put on 15 lbs, but he

has the raw tools, imo.

 

[awesomeness]

LeGarrette Blount is not my top choice,

but he is someone to keep an eye on.

I would like to see him put on 15 lbs, but he

has the raw tools, imo.

I think you mean take off 15 lbs considering he already weighs 235+.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think you mean take off 15 lbs considering he already weighs 235+.

And reportedly showed up to Spring ball at 250.

 

[Native]

Murray has not looked the same since his injury. Still ultra-productive, but not as fluid or fast.

I'll throw Noel Devine's name into the mix as well. Hes very small, but his balance and speed can make him a Westbrook-type player.

 

[MAC_32]

Lots of good stuff in here.

I'm with the consensus on Dwyer, and the J Stew comp is spot on.

I'll be watching a lot of Spiller and Best this year, both players intrigue me, I think they both of end of round 1 potential. I really hope Clemson did some repair work to their interior line this offseason because it was impossible to get a read on how well either Clemson back did last year between the tackles. I'd like to see him make one guy miss, but when there's already three in the backfield when he gets the ball there isn't much he can do.

Of the rest, the guy I am most optimistic on right now is Derrick Washington. Loved what I saw last year, has an NFL body and skills, I think we'll get a better read on this guy now that he's going to become the focal point of the offense.

 

[Balco]

Lots of good stuff in here.I'll be watching a lot of Spiller and Best this year, both players intrigue me, I think they both of end of round 1 potential. I really hope Clemson did some repair work to their interior line this offseason because it was impossible to get a read on how well either Clemson back did last year between the tackles. I'd like to see him make one guy miss, but when there's already three in the backfield when he gets the ball there isn't much he can do.

Yeah, Clemson's line was horrid last year. Defenders in the backfield constantly. Any Clemson homers have any insight on their O Line in 2009?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I voted Dwyer, but I am concerned about the amount of abuse he takes with all those naked plunges into the line. It seems like half the plays Tech runs involve Dwyer fighting 6+ tacklers in the middle of the field. It's awesome that he often still gains good yardage on those plays, but my worry is that he will come into the NFL with effectively more mileage on his body than most backs.

Legit concern but he'll only have two seasons of that instead of three or four. I expect we'll see Dwyer in the A-Back (slot back) roll some this year with Anthony Allen playing some B-Back (Fullback).

It really isn't a legit concern unless somebody has statistical evidence that college workload / mileage has any bearing on future injury potential.

I did a study on this last year. Can't remember if this was published on Draftguys, but you can also find it here.

 

[coolnerd]

Article on potential college feature backs...can serve as a who to watch for 2009 college football.

http://www.collegefantasyfootballinsider.c...cle.aspx?ID=383

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I voted Dwyer, but I am concerned about the amount of abuse he takes with all those naked plunges into the line. It seems like half the plays Tech runs involve Dwyer fighting 6+ tacklers in the middle of the field. It's awesome that he often still gains good yardage on those plays, but my worry is that he will come into the NFL with effectively more mileage on his body than most backs.

Legit concern but he'll only have two seasons of that instead of three or four. I expect we'll see Dwyer in the A-Back (slot back) roll some this year with Anthony Allen playing some B-Back (Fullback).

It really isn't a legit concern unless somebody has statistical evidence that college workload / mileage has any bearing on future injury potential.

I did a study on this last year. Can't remember if this was published on Draftguys, but you can also find it here.

Can't speak for Plasma but I wasn't worried about the workload causing a future injury near as much as the thought of a RB only has so many hits in him for a career. And whatever extra hits Dwyer is taking as a decoy is offset by the fact he's young and didn't play much as a freshman anyway. If Dwyer came into the league with four years of Paul Johnson's system, I think it would be a very legit concern to worry about his longevity.

 

[Lucky Lefty]

None... They all came out this yr.

 

[cobalt_27]

I voted Dwyer, but I am concerned about the amount of abuse he takes with all those naked plunges into the line. It seems like half the plays Tech runs involve Dwyer fighting 6+ tacklers in the middle of the field. It's awesome that he often still gains good yardage on those plays, but my worry is that he will come into the NFL with effectively more mileage on his body than most backs.

Legit concern but he'll only have two seasons of that instead of three or four. I expect we'll see Dwyer in the A-Back (slot back) roll some this year with Anthony Allen playing some B-Back (Fullback).

It really isn't a legit concern unless somebody has statistical evidence that college workload / mileage has any bearing on future injury potential.

I did a study on this last year. Can't remember if this was published on Draftguys, but you can also find it here.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I did a study on this last year. Can't remember if this was published on Draftguys, but you can also find it here.

 

[cobalt_27]

I did a study on this last year. Can't remember if this was published on Draftguys, but you can also find it here.

Don't worry about it. It'll just derail what has been an excellent and informative discussion here over the last couple of days.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I did a study on this last year. Can't remember if this was published on Draftguys, but you can also find it here.

Don't worry about it. It'll just derail what has been an excellent and informative discussion here over the last couple of days.

So you disagree with the conclusion that a heavy workload in their final college season, as measured by touches per game, did NOT seem to lead to more injuries? I thought you were arguing the same thing based on number of carries in year N?

 

[cobalt_27]

I did a study on this last year. Can't remember if this was published on Draftguys, but you can also find it here.

Don't worry about it. It'll just derail what has been an excellent and informative discussion here over the last couple of days.

So you disagree with the conclusion that a heavy workload in their final college season, as measured by touches per game, did NOT seem to lead to more injuries? I thought you were arguing the same thing based on number of carries in year N?

Not at all. I think you're probably right. I just don't think your study answered that question with a correlational analysis.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Don't worry about it. It'll just derail what has been an excellent and informative discussion here over the last couple of days.

So you disagree with the conclusion that a heavy workload in their final college season, as measured by touches per game, did NOT seem to lead to more injuries? I thought you were arguing the same thing based on number of carries in year N?

Not at all. I think you're probably right. I just don't think your study answered that question with a correlational analysis.

Ah, OK. Truthfully, that's fine. That was my first real foray into using statistical analysis in a freelance piece and I hated it. I just don't care about being that precise. I can look at the data and see that there are guys with lots of touches who missed a lot of games and guys who didn't, and guys in the middle of the list of Touches that missed a lot of games and some that didn't, etc. So I don't think you need statistical analysis to tell you that there isn't much of a correlation with that particular data. But I know that you and Chase and Doug and others enjoy it, so keep bringing the analysis. I'm just personally not that precise.

 

[gianmarco]

Any love for Javarris James?

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

Murray has not looked the same since his injury. Still ultra-productive, but not as fluid or fast. I'll throw Noel Devine's name into the mix as well. Hes very small, but his balance and speed can make him a Westbrook-type player.

Devine definetly is small but its hard to discard his talent. he may have a Darren Sproles type future in the NFL. that a role which seems to be expanding. in leagues with PPR+returner scoring Devine will likely have a place. and let's not forget that Devine took ALOT of work from Steve Slaton.......and Slaton seemed to do ok in the league.another kid in the Devine mold i like is Daniel Dufrene from IL

 

[offdee]

Any love for Javarris James?

The only real positive thing going for him is his last name/family ties....but, he is nothing like Edgerrin James.Plays small, injury prone and sloooooow.

 

[Balco]

Any love for Javarris James?

No. marginal prospect at best.

 

[JPeso]

I'm probably higher than most on Spiller. I see the gap, if any, with Dwyer much closer. I agree that Dwyer gets the higher grade and will be the #1 RB off the board come draft day.

I can't get on board with Best. I'm just not seeing his game translating at the next level.

Both Murray and Johnson aren't spectacular, but I think they could produce in the right situations. All else equal as prospects, I prefer D. Evans over both of these guys.

 

[kremenull]

I'm probably higher than most on Spiller. I see the gap, if any, with Dwyer much closer. I agree that Dwyer gets the higher grade and will be the #1 RB off the board come draft day.

I can't get on board with Best. I'm just not seeing his game translating at the next level.

Both Murray and Johnson aren't spectacular, but I think they could produce in the right situations. All else equal as prospects, I prefer D. Evans over both of these guys.

Guys with world-class speed, major elusiveness, burst, vision, nice balance, and great work ethic. Did I mention soft hands?...yeah, I don't like those type of guys either...... Guys are sold on Spiller, Chris Johnson, and Sproles, maybe Devine, but not Best???? Best is better than all of these guys....

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm probably higher than most on Spiller. I see the gap, if any, with Dwyer much closer. I agree that Dwyer gets the higher grade and will be the #1 RB off the board come draft day.

I can't get on board with Best. I'm just not seeing his game translating at the next level.

Both Murray and Johnson aren't spectacular, but I think they could produce in the right situations. All else equal as prospects, I prefer D. Evans over both of these guys.

Guys with world-class speed, major elusiveness, burst, vision, nice balance, and great work ethic. Did I mention soft hands?...yeah, I don't like those type of guys either...... Guys are sold on Spiller, Chris Johnson, and Sproles, maybe Devine, but not Best???? Best is better than all of these guys....

best is better than Chris Johnson? lets wait an see before we make that comment

 

[ChrisCooleyFan]

RB James Starks Buffalo was thought as a 1st rounder last year

by who?

Sorry it was 2010 not last year