knuckleballah22
Footballguy
Correct me if im wrong but based on my count this dude is 16-1 with his predicitions http://hairydonut.com/fantasy-football-2012-sleeper-picks/
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Best sleeper pick predictions ive ever seen (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter knuckleballah22
- Start date
rocketsauce
Footballguy
16-1 implies you're counting either Sanchez or Gabbert as a hit. I...can't imagine anyone would say that.
There's some good ones in there (Morris, James Jones, Cobb, Heath Miller) but the majority of them are your standard retreads that we were hearing all July & August (Peyton, Dougie, RG3, etc.)
There's some good ones in there (Morris, James Jones, Cobb, Heath Miller) but the majority of them are your standard retreads that we were hearing all July & August (Peyton, Dougie, RG3, etc.)
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Publish this July 20 instead of August 20 and I'll buy his book and attend his church. By August 20, most of us could see these.
How is Palmer a bust? In my FBG's league, he is tied for 7th, ahead of Stafford, Roethlisberger, Newton, Vick, Romo, E. Manning among others and just a few points behind RG3. Aside from the top 5 (Peyton, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan and Brady), I would say that Palmer has been the best QB value. That isn't even close to a bust.I would say he got Sanchez wrong, but even Tannehill wasn't bad as he has had 4 good starts and he was barely even drafted in the above 12 team, 20 round draft. There were probably more people thinking he would either not play at all or be a total bust.I thought this was a heck of a list. I wish I had seen it in August.
coachbobbyfinstock
Footballguy
these were pretty good. I mean its not like he went way out on a limb for anyone, right? cobb, rg3, al morris..thsoe were all guys on many peoples radars..James Jones was a good call though. Ya'll should seen my sleeper picks, we had a lot of the same guys and I didnt pick sanchez!!!
Why don't you guys link your teams? Let's see if you guys have all of these guys. Even on August 20th, this was a very solid list. Heck, even Gabbert wasn't a bad call. You guys are thinking that all these guys had to be top 10 to be hits. Outside of Manning, T. Smith and Ryan, most of these guys were mid to late or even not drafted.Gabbert, Sanchez, Tannehill, Miller, Roberts, Cobb, Daniels, Morris, Palmer, Luck and Jones were all late/not-drafted in regular (non-dynasty) roster size leagues. That is 11 of his 17 picks.
steveski
Footballguy
Pretty impressive no matter how late he posted this. To the people saying that everybody here already knew about most of these guys, you're discounting the fact that he DIDNT list guys that people here were all crazy about like Donald Brown, SJax, etc as steals at their ADP. Maybe he just got lucky or maybe he really knows his stuff, either way, it's worth a bookmark and hopefully I'll remember to check back again next year.
johnadams
Footballguy
Totally agreed. Sure, these names weren't unheard of, but all of them had pretty big ???s even on Aug. 20th. I guess you could say that it depends on your definition of sleeper, but seems like almost all of them have outperformed their draft positions by several rounds if not absolutely blown them away.
Agreed. Very impressive list. The only guys he got wrong were a few QBs. If someone followed this list while splurging on the Foster's or Rice's in the the early rounds, their team would be very solid.
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coachbobbyfinstock
Footballguy
I wont agree for a minute that he got most of his guys right. But who exactly did he go out on a limb for? I bet I can pick a bunch of guys that are going to do well this weekend. Thats why im straight ballin in fan duel!!! Mo' money, no problems!!!!
steveski
Footballguy
What? Picking who is going to do well in 1 week in the middle of a season is a lot easier to pick than who is going to have a good year in the preseason. Also, he did go out on a limb in quite a few of his picks. What surprises me with his picks isn't so much of how he got some of these guys right, it's that he got so few wrong. He didn't go out and say Donald Brown or any of these guys that FBG forum members were drooling over.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Damn good list.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
On radars, sure. But all overperformed - that's what I consider a sleeper pick. Of course people know who Carson Pamer is. Morris wasn't even #1 on the depth chart yet. There were plenty who thought Royster would start, and plenty that thought Helu would end up getting the most carries.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Morris is the only real sleeper on this list. Everyone else was expected to be a factor one way or another.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That doesn't mean they aren't a sleeper. A sleeper doesn't mean a guy that comes out of nowhere. A sleeper is simply a player likely to outperform their draft spot by a good margin. If your projected to be picked in the first 3 rounds, it's hard to be a sleeper. But outside of that, sleeper can be applicable.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Solid and impressive list. There's no denying it.
DropKick
Footballguy
I agree; Manning, Martin, Griffin, Luck? These guys don't meet my definition of a sleeper. Other guys like Cobb, Moore and Smith were clearly young risers and showed promise as rookies last season. The only guys IS Morris; and that's if you publish before the 3rd preseason game. After his exposure in the 3rd game and absence from the 4th, it was fairly clear that he would get his shot.Sleepers to the general public? OK. But to the "shark" pool?'ctrlaltdefeat said:
flc735
Footballguy
LOL at some of you here. do you know how tough it is to get 80%+ of these right? give me a break.
ya, some were obvious but so was "jarred cook will break out", "tebow will take over in NYJ" and "julio will be the #1 WR". he got those correct as well while many of us were buying into those "easy" calls.
and give him credit for his heath miller, daniels, roberts and james jones calls. they came from absolutely no where. i would have LOL'd at those if i i saw this in the summer.
ya, some were obvious but so was "jarred cook will break out", "tebow will take over in NYJ" and "julio will be the #1 WR". he got those correct as well while many of us were buying into those "easy" calls.
and give him credit for his heath miller, daniels, roberts and james jones calls. they came from absolutely no where. i would have LOL'd at those if i i saw this in the summer.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
If a ton of people on the internet all give sleeper picks each, the odds are that one or two of them will hit on a huge percentage of his even if that person's picks were no more likely to be correct than the average person's. Its the same exact thing as when you flip 10,000 coins 17 times each- one of them will probably land on heads 16 or 17 times. I think judging a person's sleeper picks should be done by evaluating their logic and thought process, and I think their actual results over a small sample size such as 17 are practically meaningless.
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Given the hit ratio we'll need to break down this guy's list next season when it goes up in late August.
Certainly would merit discussion more than the inevitable annual LHUCKS disappointment.
Hits on a lot of guys and the ones he didn't would not have cost anyone a lot (with the possible exception of Torrey Smith).
Certainly would merit discussion more than the inevitable annual LHUCKS disappointment.
Hits on a lot of guys and the ones he didn't would not have cost anyone a lot (with the possible exception of Torrey Smith).
djjosee
Footballguy
Did you see his players rankings? http://hairydonut.com/fantasy-football-player-rankings/
Not sure when it was published, but pretty impressive!
Not sure when it was published, but pretty impressive!
Agreed, looking at that player rankings for the 2012 season, it might as well be a list he pulled from the current stats page of a league. Everything is basically in the same order as the current rankings. This is either a joke web site or someone shady trying to make their site look good and get subscribers for something.What's funnier is that it seems like the sleeper list is bogus knowing all the stats up until today, yet so many people yawned at the list like the picks were all obvious in August.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
At least fairly "out on a limb":James JonesHeath Miller Owen DanielsAndre RobertsRandall Cobb (there was buzz on him)Not as "out on a limb" but Carson Palmer (mixed thoughts on him) Andrew Luck (for a re-draft) and Alred Morris (who did have the job at the time but many expected Shahanigans) were good calls.Bottom line is this was a good list - not all were "sleepers" but even a guy like Peyton Manning had his share of doubters.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can't see it being possible that those were preseason rankings. No one is that good.
Haha, nice detective work there.I did skim through the rankings link and noticed it was odd that he had guys like AP, Doug Martin and Matt Ryan so high, but then I just assumed they were continuously updated rankings. Didn't catch the paragraph where he says verbatim that those are projections for 2012. Slickster seems to have just gotten lazy here. What's funnier is that every "sleeper" that ended up being wrong on his list (Sanchez, Tannehill), is conveniently left off his player ranking projections...Agreed, looking at that player rankings for the 2012 season, it might as well be a list he pulled from the current stats page of a league. Everything is basically in the same order as the current rankings. This is either a joke web site or someone shady trying to make their site look good and get subscribers for something.What's funnier is that it seems like the sleeper list is bogus knowing all the stats up until today, yet so many people yawned at the list like the picks were all obvious in August.
Banger
Footballguy
doesn't make a whole lot of sense to target both Cobb and Jones as top 7 sleepers with Jordy and Jennings firmly entrenched as starters. To me it looks like someone went through the scoring from a week or so ago that were undrafted or vastly exceeded their draft position and then through a red herring (Sanchez) or two to make it look more realistic.
Also, as far as sleepers go everyone always targets RBs since they have the most value and on the list of 17 sleepers there are 2 RBs, Morris and Martin. There weren't any other real good value picks this year otherwise I'm sure they would have somehow made it onto the list. Who picks 8 QBs as sleepers out of a list of 17?
Also, as far as sleepers go everyone always targets RBs since they have the most value and on the list of 17 sleepers there are 2 RBs, Morris and Martin. There weren't any other real good value picks this year otherwise I'm sure they would have somehow made it onto the list. Who picks 8 QBs as sleepers out of a list of 17?
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donkshow
Footballguy
No kidding. Most had guys backs like 'Quizz, Dwyer, D. Richardson, Wilson, etc.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I suspect that this is a fake list that was posted a few days ago and made to look like it was posted back in August.
Just a gut feeling. Plus, when you google the article, google shows it as being made 2 days ago.
Also, it looks like the original poster has made this exact same post on a ton of different fantasy football message boards.
I hate to accuse someone of something fraudulent when I am not 100% sure of it, so I'll just say that I am personally skeptical of the legitimacy of this website and the post date of this list. I'd advise everyone here not to pay money to join this website without doing some real due diligence.
Just a gut feeling. Plus, when you google the article, google shows it as being made 2 days ago.
Also, it looks like the original poster has made this exact same post on a ton of different fantasy football message boards.
I hate to accuse someone of something fraudulent when I am not 100% sure of it, so I'll just say that I am personally skeptical of the legitimacy of this website and the post date of this list. I'd advise everyone here not to pay money to join this website without doing some real due diligence.
Pipes
Footballguy
There top 100:
1. Adrian Peterson (Min – RB)
2. Arian Foster (Hou – RB)
3. Drew Brees (NO – QB)
4. Doug Martin (TB – RB)
5. Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB)
6. Matt Ryan (Atl – QB)
7. Robert Griffin III (Was – QB)
8. Tom Brady (NE – QB)
9. Marshawn Lynch (Sea – RB)
10. Peyton Manning (Den – QB)
11. A.J. Green (Cin – WR)
12. Ray Rice (Bal – RB)
13. Brandon Marshall (Chi – WR)
14. Andrew Luck (Ind – QB)
15. Matthew Stafford (Det – QB)
16. Carson Palmer (Oak – QB)
17. Stevan Ridley (NE – RB)
18. Andy Dalton (Cin – QB)
19. C.J. Spiller (Buf – RB)
20. Chris Johnson (Ten – RB)
21. Rob Gronkowski (NE – TE)
22. Josh Freeman (TB – QB)
23. Cam Newton (Car – QB)
24. Trent Richardson (Cle – RB)
25. Frank Gore (SF – RB)
26. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit – QB)
27. Victor Cruz (NYG – WR)
28. LeSean McCoy (Phi – RB)
29. Vincent Jackson (TB – WR)
30. Alfred Morris (Was – RB)
31. Joe Flacco (Bal – QB)
32. Jamaal Charles (KC – RB)
33. Tony Gonzalez (Atl – TE)
34. Reggie Wayne (Ind – WR)
35. Jimmy Graham (NO – TE)
36. Calvin Johnson (Det – WR)
37. Demaryius Thomas (Den – WR)
38. Willis McGahee (Den – RB)
39. Roddy White (Atl – WR)
40. Michael Vick (Phi – QB)
41. Percy Harvin (Min – WR)
42. Marques Colston (NO – WR)
43. Julio Jones (Atl – WR)
44. Eric Decker (Den – WR)
45. Randall Cobb (GB – WR)
46. Tony Romo (Dal – QB)
47. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buf – QB)
48. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG – RB)
49. Eli Manning (NYG – QB)
50. Torrey Smith (Bal – WR)
51. honn Greene (NYJ – RB)
52. Russell Wilson (Sea – QB)
53. Matt Forte (Chi – RB)
54. Reggie Bush (Mia – RB)
55. James Jones (GB – WR)
56. Heath Miller (Pit – TE)
57. Christian Ponder (Min – QB)
58. Michael Turner (Atl – RB)
59. Wes Welker (NE – WR)
60. Mike Wallace (Pit – WR)
61. Owen Daniels (Hou – TE)
62. Miles Austin (Dal – WR)
63. Philip Rivers (SD – QB)
64. Denarius Moore (Oak – WR)
65. Sam Bradford (StL – QB)
66. Mike Williams (TB – WR)
67. Andre Roberts (Ari – WR)
68. Andre Brown (NYG – RB)
69. Jordy Nelson (GB – WR)
70. Sidney Rice (Sea – WR)
71. Alex Smith (SF – QB)
72. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari – WR)
73. Matt Schaub (Hou – QB)
74. Kyle Rudolph (Min – TE)
75. Brian Hartline (Mia – WR)
76. Greg Olsen (Car – TE)
77. DeSean Jackson (Phi – WR)
78. Dwayne Bowe (KC – WR)
79. Steven Jackson (StL – RB)
80. Cecil Shorts (Jac – WR)
81. Dez Bryant (Dal – WR)
82. Jason Witten (Dal – TE)
83. Vernon Davis (SF – TE)
84. Michael Crabtree (SF – WR)
85. Mikel Leshoure (Det – RB)
86. Darren McFadden (Oak – RB)
87. Scott Chandler (Buf – TE)
88. Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
89. Jermaine Gresham (Cin – TE)
90. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cin – RB)
91. Golden Tate (Sea – WR)
92. Brandon Myers (Oak – TE)
93. Stevie Johnson (Buf – WR)
94. Jay Cutler (Chi – QB)
95. Nate Washington (Ten – WR)
96. Andre Johnson (Hou – WR)
97. Martellus Bennett (NYG – TE)
98. Darren Sproles (NO – RB)
99. Lance Moore (NO – WR)
100. Antonio Gates (SD – TE)
1. Adrian Peterson (Min – RB)
2. Arian Foster (Hou – RB)
3. Drew Brees (NO – QB)
4. Doug Martin (TB – RB)
5. Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB)
6. Matt Ryan (Atl – QB)
7. Robert Griffin III (Was – QB)
8. Tom Brady (NE – QB)
9. Marshawn Lynch (Sea – RB)
10. Peyton Manning (Den – QB)
11. A.J. Green (Cin – WR)
12. Ray Rice (Bal – RB)
13. Brandon Marshall (Chi – WR)
14. Andrew Luck (Ind – QB)
15. Matthew Stafford (Det – QB)
16. Carson Palmer (Oak – QB)
17. Stevan Ridley (NE – RB)
18. Andy Dalton (Cin – QB)
19. C.J. Spiller (Buf – RB)
20. Chris Johnson (Ten – RB)
21. Rob Gronkowski (NE – TE)
22. Josh Freeman (TB – QB)
23. Cam Newton (Car – QB)
24. Trent Richardson (Cle – RB)
25. Frank Gore (SF – RB)
26. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit – QB)
27. Victor Cruz (NYG – WR)
28. LeSean McCoy (Phi – RB)
29. Vincent Jackson (TB – WR)
30. Alfred Morris (Was – RB)
31. Joe Flacco (Bal – QB)
32. Jamaal Charles (KC – RB)
33. Tony Gonzalez (Atl – TE)
34. Reggie Wayne (Ind – WR)
35. Jimmy Graham (NO – TE)
36. Calvin Johnson (Det – WR)
37. Demaryius Thomas (Den – WR)
38. Willis McGahee (Den – RB)
39. Roddy White (Atl – WR)
40. Michael Vick (Phi – QB)
41. Percy Harvin (Min – WR)
42. Marques Colston (NO – WR)
43. Julio Jones (Atl – WR)
44. Eric Decker (Den – WR)
45. Randall Cobb (GB – WR)
46. Tony Romo (Dal – QB)
47. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buf – QB)
48. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG – RB)
49. Eli Manning (NYG – QB)
50. Torrey Smith (Bal – WR)
51. honn Greene (NYJ – RB)
52. Russell Wilson (Sea – QB)
53. Matt Forte (Chi – RB)
54. Reggie Bush (Mia – RB)
55. James Jones (GB – WR)
56. Heath Miller (Pit – TE)
57. Christian Ponder (Min – QB)
58. Michael Turner (Atl – RB)
59. Wes Welker (NE – WR)
60. Mike Wallace (Pit – WR)
61. Owen Daniels (Hou – TE)
62. Miles Austin (Dal – WR)
63. Philip Rivers (SD – QB)
64. Denarius Moore (Oak – WR)
65. Sam Bradford (StL – QB)
66. Mike Williams (TB – WR)
67. Andre Roberts (Ari – WR)
68. Andre Brown (NYG – RB)
69. Jordy Nelson (GB – WR)
70. Sidney Rice (Sea – WR)
71. Alex Smith (SF – QB)
72. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari – WR)
73. Matt Schaub (Hou – QB)
74. Kyle Rudolph (Min – TE)
75. Brian Hartline (Mia – WR)
76. Greg Olsen (Car – TE)
77. DeSean Jackson (Phi – WR)
78. Dwayne Bowe (KC – WR)
79. Steven Jackson (StL – RB)
80. Cecil Shorts (Jac – WR)
81. Dez Bryant (Dal – WR)
82. Jason Witten (Dal – TE)
83. Vernon Davis (SF – TE)
84. Michael Crabtree (SF – WR)
85. Mikel Leshoure (Det – RB)
86. Darren McFadden (Oak – RB)
87. Scott Chandler (Buf – TE)
88. Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
89. Jermaine Gresham (Cin – TE)
90. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cin – RB)
91. Golden Tate (Sea – WR)
92. Brandon Myers (Oak – TE)
93. Stevie Johnson (Buf – WR)
94. Jay Cutler (Chi – QB)
95. Nate Washington (Ten – WR)
96. Andre Johnson (Hou – WR)
97. Martellus Bennett (NYG – TE)
98. Darren Sproles (NO – RB)
99. Lance Moore (NO – WR)
100. Antonio Gates (SD – TE)
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This is fake. I wonder what they are trying to do. They're not even subtle, here.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
This dude and a couple of other aliases were blatantly spamming the Shark Pool with links to some Fanduel knockoff a few weeks ago. It is mindboggling that he hasn't been permabanned already. Serious lack of moderation here.
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Phenix
Footballguy
LIAR, I will not mince words. Horrible, OP should be ashamed of himself for being such a pathetic human on something so meaningless in the grand scheme.All he did was hurt his rep not better it.
DropKick
Footballguy
I picked up on the date inconsistency but, to be honest, was never impressed by the list anyway. I'm a bit surprised how many people thought this list (even in hindsight) was a revelation.
Griffin, Luck and Martin were top 4 picks in ALL my rookie drafts.
Manning or Ryan a sleeper? Please child!
I targeted Cobb, Moore, T. Smith, and J. Dwyer in several keeper leagues. The strategy being that 2nd/3rd year guys who've shown something would have less "shine" than the rookie crop. That strategy was rock solid.
I though Belichick and Shanahan (despite opinion to the contrary) would ride Ridley and Morris. (More confident on Ridley based on eyeball test; Morris based on preseason usage)
I targeted Turbin, Pierce and Hunter as backs to target in the event of injury. None has paid dividends (yet).
I would be hard pressed to take Sanchez under any circumstance.
Heath Miller and Andre Roberts have exceeded my expectations although I thought Roberts a better pick than Floyd (see veteran vs rookie strategy above).
So... it's just a list.. not much different or better than my own estimate.
ETA: I also thought Mike Williams would rebound (single coverage with VJ), Ryan Williams would emerge (injury derailed that but it looked like the team would been his downfall anyway) and J. Rodgers would emerge in the receiving game (meh). That's it... no real "flyers" just sound picks based on a combination of talent and/or opportunity.
Griffin, Luck and Martin were top 4 picks in ALL my rookie drafts.
Manning or Ryan a sleeper? Please child!
I targeted Cobb, Moore, T. Smith, and J. Dwyer in several keeper leagues. The strategy being that 2nd/3rd year guys who've shown something would have less "shine" than the rookie crop. That strategy was rock solid.
I though Belichick and Shanahan (despite opinion to the contrary) would ride Ridley and Morris. (More confident on Ridley based on eyeball test; Morris based on preseason usage)
I targeted Turbin, Pierce and Hunter as backs to target in the event of injury. None has paid dividends (yet).
I would be hard pressed to take Sanchez under any circumstance.
Heath Miller and Andre Roberts have exceeded my expectations although I thought Roberts a better pick than Floyd (see veteran vs rookie strategy above).
So... it's just a list.. not much different or better than my own estimate.
ETA: I also thought Mike Williams would rebound (single coverage with VJ), Ryan Williams would emerge (injury derailed that but it looked like the team would been his downfall anyway) and J. Rodgers would emerge in the receiving game (meh). That's it... no real "flyers" just sound picks based on a combination of talent and/or opportunity.
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