I think Buffalo is vastly overrated. I think they have a nice record, but this is the worst Bills team since Allen broke out in 2020. I think they have a bad defense (like bottom 10 in the NFL) and that the Rams having the game they had on Sunday, was more about Buffalo than LA.
I still like the Ravens in the AFC. Their best is better than anyone else's, and I have to think Tucker gets it together. Their defense isn;t as bad as the stats say, they just got torched twice by Burrow/Chase who have always had their number.
If I were to break down each of the current playoff teams, I'd say:
Buffalo, division being awful has really helped. Good offense, bad defense, doesn't stop the run or cover well. Prime candidate to lose in round 1.
Pittsburgh, a real threat with Wilson. Brings the offense up to average, to go with AFC's best defense. They are mediocre in the secondary, which is only defensive flaw. OL has really improved to borderline good.
Baltimore, might be the #1 seed if career norm Tucker existed this season. Cost them at least 3 games. Best offense in the NFL, and a good defense that is rounding into form. Very dangerous.
Houston, surprising considering where they were last year, but the defense is better than the offense. Good defense, average offense. Average to bad OL, and Stroud has been mediocre. Nico really straw that stirs the drink. Can be run on. Probably 1 and done, unless Nico just takes over.
Kansas City, easily worst team of the last 3 seasons, that seemingly has infinite horseshoes up their butts. Settles for too many FGs, but still a good offense, with a great defense. Weapons are just average at this point, but Mahomes/OL are still elite. No real issues on defense, other than maybe secondary depth.
LA Chargers, he likely won't win it, but Jim Harbaugh should really be a coach of the year candidate. Team just has a completely different feel to them. Pretty similar to KC honestly, where the issue is weapons on offense. On defense, the secondary is arguably the most improved in the AFC, and the pass rush was always good. Run D is interesting, in that they give up some big plays, but mostly shut it down. Strong candidate to get a road playoff win. Also, excellent special teams play, which had been a Chargers issue dating back to the Tomlinson years.
Denver, elite defense, mediocre offense. Good OL, and Bo Nix is having a nice rookie season (though rookie of the year talk is ludicrous) skill position players are just bad, probably worst of all playoff teams. Probably best special teams in the NFL. That's been a big key for them and has always been a Payton hallmark. Likely a year away from being a real threat, but headed in the right direction.
If I had to guess, I think the AFC comes down to Ravens/Chiefs.
NFC:
Philadelphia, elite on both sides of the ball. I do think Jalen Hurts isn't gonna be able to get by with these sub-200 yard passing games in the playoffs. He needs to do more. If he does, they're the favorites. Until that happens, I lean Detroit.
Washington, probably not as good as their record, and likely the worst team in the playoffs, but still they had the #2 pick, so huge progress. Good offense, bad defense in my eyes. Jayden Daniels is already the best QB in the NFC in my opinion, and clear rookie of the year, this is despite a pretty mediocre OL. Secondary is a huge issue, probably among the NFL's worst, and the reason they are almost certainly 1 and done.
Detroit, elite on both sides of the ball, but a little different than last year. I don't think the OL is as good this season, but I think the weapons are better with JaMo breaking out. Much to my surprise (as I had Hutchinson as DPOY when he got hurt) the pass rush has been elite. You can kind of run on them, but only if you really do it well. Eagles would be interesting matchup, as would Ravens.
Minnesota, I think they're the 3rd best NFC team. O'Connell is a genius, and the defense is good too, though I would be very disinterested in Flores getting a HC job, especially to a team with a young QB (Bears, Giants) OL has been good despite losing Darrisaw. Might be the best top-3 pass catchers in the NFL, and Jones is still solid too. One major defense issue is the pass rush sort of requires blitzes, which gets them in trouble against teams who can pick it up, and have WRs who can win 1-1. Basically, exactly the Lions and ideally Eagles.
Green Bay, I don't think they are as good as their record, and its a credit to Matt LaFleur that they are 9-4. This team has .500 talent in my opinion. A good offense, and an ok defense. I feel like they really need a #1 WR. OL is average to good. Love is good, if inconsistent. I think they've probably made the right call making Jacobs the centerpiece. They can be had on defense both rushing and passing, but do a good job limiting big plays. They get turnovers, but don't really otherwise stop teams. Likely 1 and done, unless somebody pulls a Dallas again this year. Last year's team felt better. Special teams is also an issue, though they did upgrade at K at least.
Tampa Bay, good offense, ok defense, not too dissimilar from GB, but I think a little more talented. Baker's good if probably not as good as his numbers suggest, as he still makes a couple boneheaded plays weekly. Good OL, and a really interesting and complimentary running game. Run defense is a real issue. But pass defense has gotten better since Dean/Smith came back. I do think this is a better team than last season.
Seattle, I think they are sneaky and are rounding into form under their 1st year HC. I think they are good on both sides of the ball. OL is mediocre to bad, but skill positions are right there with anybody. I feel pretty confident in them getting out of round 1. Front 7 is decent, but secondary is really getting hot. Devin Witherspoon is quietly becoming one of the best young defensive players in the NFL, and 3rd year players Tyriq Woolen and Coby Bryant provide excellent physicality to the back end, especially given Bryant's move to Safety.