What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Best Team In The NFL After Week 14 (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99

Footballguy
No one posted a thread on this this week, so figured I would start one.

Based on PFR's projected / expected win totals factoring overall on-field performance, here's how they would rank the teams heading down the stretch:



DET
10.4​
2.6​
0.800​
BUF
9.3​
3.7​
0.715​
PHI
9.2​
3.8​
0.708​
MIN
9​
4​
0.693​
PIT
8.8​
4.2​
0.677​
LAC
8.7​
4.3​
0.669​
DEN
8.5​
4.5​
0.654​
WAS
8.3​
4.7​
0.638​
GBP
8.3​
4.7​
0.638​
KCC
8​
5​
0.615​
BAL
7.9​
5.1​
0.608​
TBB
7.7​
5.3​
0.592​
HOU
7​
6​
0.538​
SEA
7​
6​
0.538​
SFO
6.5​
6.5​
0.500​
CIN
6.5​
6.5​
0.500​
ARI
6.4​
6.6​
0.492​
NOS
6.4​
6.6​
0.492​
CHI
5.8​
7.2​
0.446​
IND
5.7​
7.3​
0.438​
LAR
5.7​
7.3​
0.438​
MIA
5.7​
7.3​
0.438​
ATL
5.1​
7.9​
0.392​
NYJ
5.1​
7.9​
0.392​
DAL
4.2​
8.8​
0.323​
NEP
4.1​
8.9​
0.315​
JAC
3.8​
9.2​
0.292​
CLE
3.8​
9.2​
0.292​
NYG
3.6​
9.4​
0.277​
TEN
3.6​
9.4​
0.277​
LVR
3.5​
9.5​
0.269​
CAR
3​
10​
0.231​
 
If the teams finished in the order listed above, the playoff seeding would be:

01 - DET / BUF
02 - PHI / PIT
03 - TBB / LAC
04 - SEA / HOU
05 - MIN / DEN
06 - WAS / KCC
07 - GBP / BAL

In reality, here is the current playoff seeding if the season ended today:

01 - DET / KCC
02 - PHI / BUF
03 - SEA / PIT
04 - TBB / HOU
05 - MIN / BAL
06 - GBP / LAC
07 - WAS / DEN

Both sets of seeds would have the same exact teams, just in a different order.
 
Hardly a Playoff race with clear Wildcard teams behind the Division leaders
The South in both AFC/NFC is lucky to get 1 team into the Playoffs
 
Net difference in wins and losses . . . ie, over or under performing.

NYJ
-2.1​
CHI
-1.8​
NYG
-1.6​
CIN
-1.5​
LVR
-1.5​
NOS
-1.4​
NEP
-1.1​
JAC
-0.8​
CLE
-0.8​
TBB
-0.7​
LAC
-0.7​
TEN
-0.6​
DEN
-0.5​
SFO
-0.5​
ARI
-0.4​
WAS
-0.3​
CAR
0​
BAL
0.1​
IND
0.3​
MIA
0.3​
BUF
0.7​
GBP
0.7​
DAL
0.8​
ATL
-9​
HOU
1​
SEA
1​
PIT
1.2​
LAR
1.3​
DET
1.6​
PHI
1.8​
MIN
2​
KCC
4​
 
Current chance of making playoffs:

AFC: KCC 100%, BUF 100%, PIT 99%, HOU 96%, BAL 98%, LAC 91%, DEN 75%, IND 25%, MIA 11%, CIN 3%
NFC: DET 100%, PHI 100%, MIN 99%, GBP 97%, WAS 79%, TBB 71%, SEA 68%, ATL 39%, LAR 26%, ARI 9%, SFO 9%, NOS 1% (DAL, CHI, CAR <1%)
Eliminated: CLE, JAC, NYJ, TEN, NEP, LVR, NYG
 
It's Detroit. Got the division win against a very good GB team.

Philly squeaked out a win at home against Carolina.
Buffalo lost.
 
PFR SRS (simple rating system)
  1. 14.6 Lions
  2. 9.5 Bills
  3. 7.8 Packers
  4. 7.2 Vikings
  5. 6.3 Eagles
  6. 6.2 Ravens
  7. 4.3 Steelers
  8. 4.2 Chargers
  9. 4.2 Buccaneers
  10. 4.0 Chiefs
  11. 3.9 Commanders
  12. 2.8 Cardinals
  13. 2.0 Seahawks
  14. 1.3 Texans
  15. 1.3 49ers
  16. -0.7 Rams
 
PFF Overall Team Grade
  1. 93.4 DET
  2. 92.3 PHI
  3. 90.0 BAL
  4. 89.3 LAC
  5. 88.6 PIT
  6. 87.9 ATL
  7. 87.5 SF
  8. 86.0 KC
  9. 85.9 MIN
  10. 83.7 DEN
  11. 83.6 SEA
  12. 82.2 LAR
  13. 81.7 HOU
  14. 81.2 ARI
  15. 80.7 TB
  16. 80.4 IND
  17. 80.0 BUF
 
I'd have to say after 14 weeks it's:

Lions>Eagles>Bills>Chiefs>Vikings

Lions just keep on keepin' on despite injuries on defense
Eagles had a tight one with Carolina but let's give The Panthers some props,they've been playing well
Bills defense got wrecked last week but as long as Allen is healthy they can win against anyone
Chiefs just keep winning close games,but the key word here is "winning"
Vikings looking solid,could be a very very tough out in the playoffs
 
I think Buffalo is vastly overrated. I think they have a nice record, but this is the worst Bills team since Allen broke out in 2020. I think they have a bad defense (like bottom 10 in the NFL) and that the Rams having the game they had on Sunday, was more about Buffalo than LA.

I still like the Ravens in the AFC. Their best is better than anyone else's, and I have to think Tucker gets it together. Their defense isn;t as bad as the stats say, they just got torched twice by Burrow/Chase who have always had their number.

If I were to break down each of the current playoff teams, I'd say:

Buffalo, division being awful has really helped. Good offense, bad defense, doesn't stop the run or cover well. Prime candidate to lose in round 1.

Pittsburgh, a real threat with Wilson. Brings the offense up to average, to go with AFC's best defense. They are mediocre in the secondary, which is only defensive flaw. OL has really improved to borderline good.

Baltimore, might be the #1 seed if career norm Tucker existed this season. Cost them at least 3 games. Best offense in the NFL, and a good defense that is rounding into form. Very dangerous.

Houston, surprising considering where they were last year, but the defense is better than the offense. Good defense, average offense. Average to bad OL, and Stroud has been mediocre. Nico really straw that stirs the drink. Can be run on. Probably 1 and done, unless Nico just takes over.

Kansas City, easily worst team of the last 3 seasons, that seemingly has infinite horseshoes up their butts. Settles for too many FGs, but still a good offense, with a great defense. Weapons are just average at this point, but Mahomes/OL are still elite. No real issues on defense, other than maybe secondary depth.

LA Chargers, he likely won't win it, but Jim Harbaugh should really be a coach of the year candidate. Team just has a completely different feel to them. Pretty similar to KC honestly, where the issue is weapons on offense. On defense, the secondary is arguably the most improved in the AFC, and the pass rush was always good. Run D is interesting, in that they give up some big plays, but mostly shut it down. Strong candidate to get a road playoff win. Also, excellent special teams play, which had been a Chargers issue dating back to the Tomlinson years.

Denver, elite defense, mediocre offense. Good OL, and Bo Nix is having a nice rookie season (though rookie of the year talk is ludicrous) skill position players are just bad, probably worst of all playoff teams. Probably best special teams in the NFL. That's been a big key for them and has always been a Payton hallmark. Likely a year away from being a real threat, but headed in the right direction.

If I had to guess, I think the AFC comes down to Ravens/Chiefs.

NFC:

Philadelphia, elite on both sides of the ball. I do think Jalen Hurts isn't gonna be able to get by with these sub-200 yard passing games in the playoffs. He needs to do more. If he does, they're the favorites. Until that happens, I lean Detroit.

Washington, probably not as good as their record, and likely the worst team in the playoffs, but still they had the #2 pick, so huge progress. Good offense, bad defense in my eyes. Jayden Daniels is already the best QB in the NFC in my opinion, and clear rookie of the year, this is despite a pretty mediocre OL. Secondary is a huge issue, probably among the NFL's worst, and the reason they are almost certainly 1 and done.

Detroit, elite on both sides of the ball, but a little different than last year. I don't think the OL is as good this season, but I think the weapons are better with JaMo breaking out. Much to my surprise (as I had Hutchinson as DPOY when he got hurt) the pass rush has been elite. You can kind of run on them, but only if you really do it well. Eagles would be interesting matchup, as would Ravens.

Minnesota, I think they're the 3rd best NFC team. O'Connell is a genius, and the defense is good too, though I would be very disinterested in Flores getting a HC job, especially to a team with a young QB (Bears, Giants) OL has been good despite losing Darrisaw. Might be the best top-3 pass catchers in the NFL, and Jones is still solid too. One major defense issue is the pass rush sort of requires blitzes, which gets them in trouble against teams who can pick it up, and have WRs who can win 1-1. Basically, exactly the Lions and ideally Eagles.

Green Bay, I don't think they are as good as their record, and its a credit to Matt LaFleur that they are 9-4. This team has .500 talent in my opinion. A good offense, and an ok defense. I feel like they really need a #1 WR. OL is average to good. Love is good, if inconsistent. I think they've probably made the right call making Jacobs the centerpiece. They can be had on defense both rushing and passing, but do a good job limiting big plays. They get turnovers, but don't really otherwise stop teams. Likely 1 and done, unless somebody pulls a Dallas again this year. Last year's team felt better. Special teams is also an issue, though they did upgrade at K at least.

Tampa Bay, good offense, ok defense, not too dissimilar from GB, but I think a little more talented. Baker's good if probably not as good as his numbers suggest, as he still makes a couple boneheaded plays weekly. Good OL, and a really interesting and complimentary running game. Run defense is a real issue. But pass defense has gotten better since Dean/Smith came back. I do think this is a better team than last season.

Seattle, I think they are sneaky and are rounding into form under their 1st year HC. I think they are good on both sides of the ball. OL is mediocre to bad, but skill positions are right there with anybody. I feel pretty confident in them getting out of round 1. Front 7 is decent, but secondary is really getting hot. Devin Witherspoon is quietly becoming one of the best young defensive players in the NFL, and 3rd year players Tyriq Woolen and Coby Bryant provide excellent physicality to the back end, especially given Bryant's move to Safety.
 
Superb Owls
1 Eagles (1)
2 Lions (2)

Coulda been a contender
3 Bills (3)
4 Chiefs (4)
5 Vikings (5)
6 Steelers (7)
7 Ravens (8)
8 Packers (6)
9 Broncos (9)

Pretty good teams sometimes
10 Bucs (10)
11 Chargers (11)
12 Commanders (12)
13 Texans (13)
14 Seahawks (14)
15 Rams (16)
16 Colts (15)
 
Superb Owls
1 Eagles (1)
2 Lions (2)

Coulda been a contender
3 Bills (3)
4 Chiefs (4)
5 Vikings (5)
6 Steelers (7)
7 Ravens (8)
8 Packers (6)
9 Broncos (9)

Pretty good teams sometimes
10 Bucs (10)
11 Chargers (11)
12 Commanders (12)
13 Texans (13)
14 Seahawks (14)
15 Rams (16)
16 Colts (15)
So you're saying the NFCCG is going to be better than the Superb Owl this year?

I'm inclined to agree, if it's Detroit/Philly...

I think this is the year the Ravens and Lamar take the next step in the playoffs and make the SB from the AFC. Lions/Ravens for it all!
 
Of the most likely playoff teams, post season record of the starting QB . . .
KCC - Mahomes (15-3)
BUF - Allen (5-5)
PIT - Wilson (9-7)
HOU - Stroud (1-1)
BAL - Jackson (2-4)
LAC - Herbert (0-1)
DEN - Nix (0-0)

DET - Goff (4-4)
PHI - Hurts (2-3)
SEA - Smith (0-1)
TBB - Mayfield (2-2)
MIN - Darnold (0-0)
GBP - Love (1-1)
WAS - Daniels (0-0)

Prior results are not indicative of future outcomes, but I don't have a lot of faith in some of those guys being able to string together 4 wins to win the SB.
 

EPA/Play Rankings (Adjusted for Strength of Opponent)​


teamadj off epa/playadj def epa/playnet adj epa/playoff rankdef ranknet rank
DET0.180.100.28241
BLT0.240.030.261132
BUF0.160.040.203123
PHI0.060.120.18724
GB0.110.060.17585
MIN0.050.100.151136
SF0.050.050.111097
WAS0.12−0.030.094238
DEN−0.040.130.092119
KC0.070.010.0861710
TB0.060.010.0881511
ARZ0.06−0.000.0691912
PIT−0.010.070.0615613
LAC−0.020.070.0616514
SEA−0.020.040.02171115
HST−0.060.070.0123716
LA0.04−0.05−0.01122517
NYJ−0.040.02−0.02201418
CIN0.03−0.06−0.03142719
IND−0.040.00−0.03191820
ATL0.03−0.07−0.04132921
CHI−0.080.01−0.07251622
MIA−0.06−0.01−0.07242123
TEN−0.150.05−0.10291024
NO−0.06−0.05−0.11222625
CLV−0.16−0.01−0.17312026
NYG−0.14−0.03−0.18272427
JAX−0.03−0.15−0.18183228
NE−0.13−0.07−0.20263029
LV−0.17−0.03−0.21322230
DAL−0.14−0.07−0.21282831
CAR−0.15−0.10−0.25303132

Table: Jackson TaylorSource: Field VisionGet the dataCreated withDatawrapper
 
DET - Goff (4-4)

5-4

Most playoff wins active quarterbacks

It’s not an official stat. But not crediting Goff for beating Seattle 30-20 on the road when he played all but 15 snaps - and the score was 0-0 when he entered the game - is egregious.

3-1 home in the playoffs
2-2 road
0-1 neutral

He likely won’t have to string together 4. They came within a couple plays of winning 3 in a row last year, and Goff was excellent all 3 rounds.
 
DET - Goff (4-4)

5-4

Most playoff wins active quarterbacks

It’s not an official stat. But not crediting Goff for beating Seattle 30-20 on the road when he played all but 15 snaps - and the score was 0-0 when he entered the game - is egregious.

3-1 home in the playoffs
2-2 road
0-1 neutral

He likely won’t have to string together 4. They came within a couple plays of winning 3 in a row last year, and Goff was excellent all 3 rounds.
Should have specified AS A STARTER.
 
Superb Owls
1 Eagles (1)
2 Lions (2)

Coulda been a contender
3 Bills (3)
4 Chiefs (4)
5 Vikings (5)
6 Steelers (7)
7 Ravens (8)
8 Packers (6)
9 Broncos (9)

Pretty good teams sometimes
10 Bucs (10)
11 Chargers (11)
12 Commanders (12)
13 Texans (13)
14 Seahawks (14)
15 Rams (16)
16 Colts (15)
So you're saying the NFCCG is going to be better than the Superb Owl this year?

I'm inclined to agree, if it's Detroit/Philly...

I think this is the year the Ravens and Lamar take the next step in the playoffs and make the SB from the AFC. Lions/Ravens for it all!
Probably yes
KC could still flip a switch maybe
 
I'm old enough to remember a whole bunch of Lions fans in this very SP diminishing Goff's accomplishments even after he'd been there a couple years
Right? I’m not sure what’s happening
The overwhelming narrative was that Goff was a throw-in and little more than a bridge QB that fans couldn't get rid of fast enough

Kind of humorous/ironic to see the shift in sentiment is all
 
I'm old enough to remember a whole bunch of Lions fans in this very SP diminishing Goff's accomplishments even after he'd been there a couple years
Right? I’m not sure what’s happening
The overwhelming narrative was that Goff was a throw-in and little more than a bridge QB that fans couldn't get rid of fast enough

Kind of humorous/ironic to see the shift in sentiment is all
Its been funny to me, as I was a huge Goff defender after the Stafford trade, and thought it was ludicrous that people thought he was so bad that the Rams had to throw in a 1st to get the Lions to take Goff's contract. Ironically, now I'm probably one of the lower people on Goff, because my opinion on him hasn't changed much since. He was a good by not great QB then, and he's a good, but not great QB now.

The NFC in general is very weak at QB. I would argue its perfectly reasonable to say Jayden Daniels is already the best one.
 
The NFC in general is very weak at QB. I would argue its perfectly reasonable to say Jayden Daniels is already the best one.
Just curious . . . I've seen / heard several people suggest that if the draft was redone today that Drake Maye would be the #1 pick, and that he has looked the best out of the rookie QB class. I'm not saying that, but what's your opinion on Maye?
 
The NFC in general is very weak at QB. I would argue its perfectly reasonable to say Jayden Daniels is already the best one.
Just curious . . . I've seen / heard several people suggest that if the draft was redone today that Drake Maye would be the #1 pick, and that he has looked the best out of the rookie QB class. I'm not saying that, but what's your opinion on Maye?
I like Drake Maye, I had him ahead of Daniels as a prospect coming into the draft. That said, I think anyone making the argument that he's looked the best of the rookie QBs is just trying to be controversial. He's played well, don't get me wrong, but Daniels has been amazing. I'd argue Daniels has been clearly better than Stroud last year, and probably as good as any rookie QB since 2012, and that's while playing a month through a rib injury he probably should have sat out for a couple weeks. I'd call Daniels a top-5 (5th) NFL QB already.

I'd put Maye 2nd among rookies right now, though I think both McCarthy and Penix have great setups once they eventually get their starting jobs. I think Caleb has looked fine considering the awful coaching and am not writing him off at all either. Nix has also been solid, though he was always kind of considered the closest to being a finished product. So far, this class looks like a hit.
 
The NFC in general is very weak at QB. I would argue its perfectly reasonable to say Jayden Daniels is already the best one.
Just curious . . . I've seen / heard several people suggest that if the draft was redone today that Drake Maye would be the #1 pick, and that he has looked the best out of the rookie QB class. I'm not saying that, but what's your opinion on Maye?
I like Drake Maye, I had him ahead of Daniels as a prospect coming into the draft. That said, I think anyone making the argument that he's looked the best of the rookie QBs is just trying to be controversial. He's played well, don't get me wrong, but Daniels has been amazing. I'd argue Daniels has been clearly better than Stroud last year, and probably as good as any rookie QB since 2012, and that's while playing a month through a rib injury he probably should have sat out for a couple weeks. I'd call Daniels a top-5 (5th) NFL QB already.

I'd put Maye 2nd among rookies right now, though I think both McCarthy and Penix have great setups once they eventually get their starting jobs. I think Caleb has looked fine considering the awful coaching and am not writing him off at all either. Nix has also been solid, though he was always kind of considered the closest to being a finished product. So far, this class looks like a hit.
I tend to mostly agree with this. PFF has Daniels graded out as their 6th best QB overall. They have Nix at 27, Maye at 30, and Williams at 37. The people suggesting Maye has been the best QB are looking at his throwing accuracy, % of catchable passes, and ball placement decision-making (ie, how likely a pass would have been an interception). Maye apparently has excelled in all of those (even better than Daniels), but with the mess in NE, that hasn't translated into great production or wins so far. That being said, IMO, NE is light years away from fielding an offense that could be productive around him, so while Maye may be a keeper, short term, he might not put up great numbers compared to the other guys / teams.
 
I like Drake Maye, I had him ahead of Daniels as a prospect coming into the draft. That said, I think anyone making the argument that he's looked the best of the rookie QBs is just trying to be controversial.
I suppose the same can be said about anyone making the statement that considering Bo Nix for rookie of the year is "ludicrous." :wink:
 
Current chance of making playoffs:

AFC: KCC 100%, BUF 100%, PIT 99%, HOU 96%, BAL 98%, LAC 91%, DEN 75%, IND 25%, MIA 11%, CIN 3%
NFC: DET 100%, PHI 100%, MIN 99%, GBP 97%, WAS 79%, TBB 71%, SEA 68%, ATL 39%, LAR 26%, ARI 9%, SFO 9%, NOS 1% (DAL, CHI, CAR <1%)
Eliminated: CLE, JAC, NYJ, TEN, NEP, LVR, NYG
I think the Rams will usurp the Seahawks. Just feel like they are the stronger team.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top