Big Miss, Small Hit and Big Hit, Small Miss Players (1 Viewer)

[Ilov80s]

I believe it was Ben Gretch and Sean Siegele talking about this concept. Some players are a big miss, small hit while others are a big hit, small. The example they used:

Big Miss, Small Hit:
Jake Ferguson- I think most people see him as just a guy who's value for fantasy is entirely tied to targets from a good QB on a team lacking in pass game options. If Ferguson is a hit, he probably isn't exceeding his ADP by too much. It's hard to see him being more than a TE7 even with his best possible outcome. However, there is a world where Cooks, Tolbert, Flournoy, etc. are better than we expect and Schoonmaker is much improved (he was a 2nd round pick with good athleticism) and Ferguson turns into a total bust who isn't even on rosters by midseason.

Big Hit, Small Miss:
Sam LaPorta- he just had one of the all time great rookie TE seasons in NFL history and is the #2 target on a high powered offense. It's possible Jamo is more involved, Gibbs catches more passes, TD regression hits and people drafting him as TE1 are disappointed but it's pretty hard to see a non-injury related outcome where he's not a weekly must start. However, if he does improve from Y1 there is a world where we see a Kelce like season where he just clearly separates himself from every TE. 100/1200/12 is not out of the question here and those taking him could be significantly rewarded for their investment.

What other players do we see as either Big Miss/Small Hit or Big Hit/Small Miss? Does this make sense?

 

[dmac37]

Ferguson seems to be the Purdy of TE's. Kinda came out of nowhere, not expected to be much but produced last year. I expect an even better year from him, passing game should should increase, Ferguson was targeted heavy in the red zone, TD's will increase this year.

 

[-OZ-]

Big Hit, Small Miss:
Sam LaPorta-

I’m not really understanding this one. The first or second TE, probably taken in the second or third, could very well end up at the end of the TE1 tier. He probably won’t completely bust, but if his value ends up being closer to TE9, which you can get in the 7th, is that a small miss? If he ends up TE1 when drafted TE1 or 2, is that a big hit? Maybe we’re just defining things differently.

A guy like Johan Dotson, probably drafted after the 10th, even if busts is a small miss. But top 20 is within reach, which would be a big hit.
Or Nick Chubb at RB42 could easily be a huge hit and didn’t cost much at that spot.

If you just mean a fairly safe bet to perform as a good starter And could be elite, Saquon fits that bill really well imo.

 

[Ilov80s]

Big Hit, Small Miss:
Sam LaPorta-

I’m not really understanding this one. The first or second TE, probably taken in the second or third, could very well end up at the end of the TE1 tier. He probably won’t completely bust, but if his value ends up being closer to TE9, which you can get in the 7th, is that a small miss? If he ends up TE1 when drafted TE1 or 2, is that a big hit? Maybe we’re just defining things differently..

I think it's pretty hard to imagine a world where LaPorta isn't a top 4-5 TE. Talent? Check. Past production? Check. High powered offense? Check. Big role in the passing game? Check. He might not end up as the TE1 overall, maybe he gets some bad TD luck but I think he's got the safest floor of any TE. It's much easier to paint a picture where Kelce, Kincaid, Pitts, McBride, Kittle and even Andrews have paths where they significantly underperform projections. What's the story for LaPorta? He all of a sudden isn't good? The Lions decide to make him less of an emphasis in their offense? Those seem near 0 possibilities.

A guy like Johan Dotson, probably drafted after the 10th, even if busts is a small miss. But top 20 is within reach, which would be a big hit.
Or Nick Chubb at RB42 could easily be a huge hit and didn’t cost much at that spot.

I don't think top 20 is in reach for Dotson- maybe right at the edge of top 20 if there are injuries to other receivers. I know Stroud just did what he did but historically rookie QBs don't do very well at supporting fantasy WRs. Dotson already showed up last season that he just might not be good. I think he's a fine player to draft due to his low cost but I wouldn't expect him to be a guy who wins you a league or anything. Maybe just a decent WR3 or flex at best. I totally agree Chubb is a big hit/small miss player for sure.

If you just mean a fairly safe bet to perform as a good starter And could be elite, Saquon fits that bill really well imo.

Agree here. Saquon is off the chart skilled and has everything you want physically in a RB. However, he's not quite delivered on expectations because he's consistently been in bad offenses. He's now found himself on an offense that could be in play for the best in the NFL. The ceiling truly is a 2000 yards, 20 TD season. But I agree, even if the worries about Hurts not dumping off and Hurts stealing GL TDs come true, pure volume alone should ensure Saquon is still a top 10 RB and a guy who is giving you a slight edge each week.

 

[Ilov80s]

Ferguson seems to be the Purdy of TE's. Kinda came out of nowhere, not expected to be much but produced last year. I expect an even better year from him, passing game should should increase, Ferguson was targeted heavy in the red zone, TD's will increase this year.

Interesting, I totally feel the opposite. Just a guy who was in the right place at the right time. He just did what Dalton Schultz did. He has a more athletic, more heavily invested in TE behind him. Not saying Schoonmaker totally displaces him necesarily but he might be featured more and eat n Schultz's targets.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Counting stats - sorted by PPG

2023 Tight End 0.5 PPR

​ Receiving​ Fantasy​ Player​ Team​ G​ Target​ Rec​ Yard​ TD​ FPts​ FPts/G​ 1. Travis Kelce​ KC​ 15​ 121​ 93​ 984​ 5​ 174.9​ 11.7​ 2. T.J. Hockenson​ MIN​ 15​ 127​ 95​ 960​ 5​ 173.5​ 11.6​ 3. Sam LaPorta​ DET​ 17​ 120​ 86​ 889​ 10​ 192.3​ 11.3​ 4. Mark Andrews​ BAL​ 10​ 61​ 45​ 544​ 6​ 112.9​ 11.3​ 5. George Kittle​ SF​ 16​ 90​ 65​ 1,020​ 6​ 170.7​ 10.7​ 6. Evan Engram​ JAC​ 17​ 143​ 114​ 963​ 4​ 177.3​ 10.4​ 7. David Njoku​ CLE​ 16​ 123​ 81​ 882​ 6​ 164.7​ 10.3​ 8. Cole Kmet​ CHI​ 16​ 90​ 73​ 719​ 6​ 144.6​ 9.0​ 9. Jake Ferguson​ DAL​ 17​ 102​ 71​ 761​ 5​ 141.6​ 8.3​ 10. Trey McBride​ ARI​ 17​ 106​ 81​ 825​ 3​ 141.0​ 8.3​ 11. Dalton Schultz​ HOU​ 15​ 88​ 59​ 635​ 5​ 123.0​ 8.2​ 12. Dallas Goedert​ PHI​ 14​ 83​ 59​ 592​ 3​ 106.8​ 7.6​ 13. Hunter Henry​ NE​ 13​ 61​ 42​ 419​ 6​ 98.9​ 7.6​ 14. Taysom Hill​ NO​ 16​ 40​ 33​ 291​ 2​ 121.7​ 7.6​ 15. Darren Waller​ NYG​ 12​ 74​ 52​ 552​ 1​ 87.2​ 7.3​ 16. Dalton Kincaid​ BUF​ 16​ 91​ 73​ 673​ 2​ 115.8​ 7.2​

 

[BobbyLayne]

Counting stats - sorted by PPG

2023 Tight End 1.0 PPR

​ Receiving​ Fantasy​ Player​ Team​ G​ Target​ Rec​ Yard​ TD​ FPts​ FPts/G​ 1. Travis Kelce​ KC​ 15​ 121​ 93​ 984​ 5​ 221.4​ 14.8​ 2. T.J. Hockenson ACL​ MIN​ 15​ 127​ 95​ 960​ 5​ 221.0​ 14.7​ 3. Sam LaPorta​ DET​ 17​ 120​ 86​ 889​ 10​ 235.3​ 13.8​ 4. Evan Engram​ JAC​ 17​ 143​ 114​ 963​ 4​ 234.3​ 13.8​ 5. Mark Andrews​ BAL​ 10​ 61​ 45​ 544​ 6​ 135.4​ 13.5​ 6. David Njoku​ CLE​ 16​ 123​ 81​ 882​ 6​ 205.2​ 12.8​ 7. George Kittle​ SF​ 16​ 90​ 65​ 1,020​ 6​ 203.2​ 12.7​ 8. Cole Kmet​ CHI​ 16​ 90​ 73​ 719​ 6​ 181.1​ 11.3​ 9. Trey McBride​ ARI​ 17​ 106​ 81​ 825​ 3​ 181.5​ 10.7​ 10. Jake Ferguson​ DAL​ 17​ 102​ 71​ 761​ 5​ 177.1​ 10.4​ 11. Dalton Schultz​ HOU​ 15​ 88​ 59​ 635​ 5​ 152.5​ 10.2​ 12. Dallas Goedert​ PHI​ 14​ 83​ 59​ 592​ 3​ 136.3​ 9.7​ 13. Dalton Kincaid​ BUF​ 16​ 91​ 73​ 673​ 2​ 152.3​ 9.5​ 14. Darren Waller ret​ NYG​ 12​ 74​ 52​ 552​ 1​ 113.2​ 9.4​ 15. Hunter Henry​ NE​ 13​ 61​ 42​ 419​ 6​ 119.9​ 9.2​ 16. Taysom Hill​ NO​ 16​ 40​ 33​ 291​ 2​ 138.2​ 8.6​ 17. Jonnu Smith​ ATL​ 15​ 70​ 50​ 582​ 3​ 126.2​ 8.4​ 18. Kyle Pitts​ ATL​ 17​ 90​ 53​ 667​ 3​ 137.3​ 8.1​ 19. Logan Thomas SF​ WAS​ 16​ 78​ 55​ 496​ 4​ 128.8​ 8.1​ 20. Tucker Kraft​ GB​ 10​ 40​ 31​ 355​ 2​ 78.5​ 7.9​

 

[Ilov80s]

Big Hit, Small Miss

Olave, Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf for me fall into this category. Safe floors because of the target volume with some factors to potentially unlock their best case scenrio.

Maybe Olave just is a 1000-1100 and 4-6 guy but he's still young and is now getting put into a Shannahan system that should put him in motion more, get him some more clean looks and create some more explosive plays. He still has Carr at QB and that's not ideal but with a little more TD luck and some different usage in the RZ, he could be a 1200-1300 and 7-9 TD guy which would make him a WR1. Heck there's probably room for even more and to be CeeDee lite. Even if that doesn't come to fruition, he's going to get so many targets that he's not burning you.

Kind of a similar case for Amari Cooper. The targets will be there. We have enough history to know that he's going to be volatile week to week but the big splash games can literally win you a week. The upside comes from a potential full season with a healthy Watson at QB. Now Watson has become a bit of a punching bag for good reason but last year Cooper's per game numbers were better with him than without. Cooper's career per game average with Watson playing would produce a season of 76/1310/6. Now if we get a fully healthy and fully acclimated Watson there could be room to squeeze out even more production there and be one of the better WRs for fantasy.

DK Metcalf has kind of setteld into a productive but unspectacular WR2 role for fantasy but that's been on a slow paced, run focused Seattle team. Now enter a pass happy air it out OC and I think there is a chance DK has a career season in targets and yards. Maybe that doesn't happen but it's hard to see him not getting you a reliable 1000/7 as worst case scnerio. I do think there is a chance that we get the magical DK season many have been expecting after his big 2020 campaign.

 

[Ilov80s]

Small Hit, Big Miss

Michael Pittman is going ahead of the WRs I listed above and I don't see why. He's been a player who over his career has been entirely target dependent. His YPC is low, he doesn't get targeted in the RZ either. He's a possession receiver who doesn't score TDs and has young rushing QB. Josh Downs quietly had a 98 target, 700 yard rookie year. AD Mitchell is full of athleticism and potential. Alec Pierce is a deep threat. There is absolutely no room for Pittman's targets to go anywhere but down. There doesn't seem to be a role change coming for him. A hit for Pittman is probably another year like last where he's WR18 or so in PPR PPG. A miss is where his targets dip as Richardson runs more, has some struggles passing the ball and spreads the ball around to the other young weapons resulting in Pittman's stats looking more like 75/824/3 which makes him a WR you can't even reliably start.

Rome Odunze is going pretty late so nobody at pick 100 is really going to wreck your team. However, he's got a rookie QB and 2 Pro Bowl veteran WRs. As much I like Odunze, it's really diffcult to see a season where he becomes a fantasy star. Even if he totally passes up Allen, he's still the WR2 for a rookie QB which has historically hasn't been a very fruitful role. A hit for Odunze is probably just joining the sea of interchangeable fantasy WR3s. A miss and you are dropping him a month into the season. Conversely, in that same area of the draft you have Trey Benson, Blake Corum,Tyjae Spears, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey. If these players hit, they could actually be weekly must starts. Even if they miss to start the year, they won't miss as big. Handcuff RBs/RBs in the lesser role of a split always retain some value and are nice pieces for the back of the bench or to include in a trade. Even Ladd and Worthy will retain value better because their path to the top of the target pyramid is more clear and they are attached to star QBs. Missing big is always relative to the round of the draft but I think a miss on Odunze is bigger than a miss you could make with other players at that point and he doesn't have the path that a Benson or Corum have to literaly being league winners.

 

[-OZ-]

ome Odunze is going pretty late so nobody at pick 100 is really going to wreck your team. However, he's got a rookie QB and 2 Pro Bowl veteran WRs. As much I like Odunze, it's really diffcult to see a season where he becomes a fantasy star. Even if he totally passes up Allen, he's still the WR2 for a rookie QB which has historically hasn't been a very fruitful role

Rome is a player I probably wouldn’t choose to start most weeks. But as WR47 (pick 114) in best ball, I’m absolutely taking that and expecting to get more use from him than most others in that range. Very Big hit, small miss imo.

Stroud just supported the WR 7 and 19 (ppg). Of course Dell didn’t have an Allen to contend with, which makes Rome a tough start decision.

@Ilov80s - I’m not expecting Laporta to drop far, but it really wouldn’t shock me if he’s around the 7-9 range. I’d still draft him 1 or 2.

 

[Ilov80s]

ome Odunze is going pretty late so nobody at pick 100 is really going to wreck your team. However, he's got a rookie QB and 2 Pro Bowl veteran WRs. As much I like Odunze, it's really diffcult to see a season where he becomes a fantasy star. Even if he totally passes up Allen, he's still the WR2 for a rookie QB which has historically hasn't been a very fruitful role

Rome is a player I probably wouldn’t choose to start most weeks. But as WR47 (pick 114) in best ball, I’m absolutely taking that and expecting to get more use from him than most others in that range. Very Big hit, small miss imo.

Stroud just supported the WR 7 and 19 (ppg). Of course Dell didn’t have an Allen to contend with, which makes Rome a tough start decision.

@Ilov80s - I’m not expecting Laporta to drop far, but it really wouldn’t shock me if he’s around the 7-9 range. I’d still draft him 1 or 2.

CJ Stroud is totally an outlier. What he did pretty much never happen. Plus I believe Nico and Dell didn't overlap much due to injuries. I think the Romeo pick even in best ball is a mistake. Nowhere near the upside season long or week to week that a RB there has or one of the young WRs who has a path being at the top of the target chain for a Pro Bowl QB. Too many unlikely things have to go right for Odunze to have a good fantasy season.

I just don't see how LaPorta falls to TE7-9 just based on target volume alone. Who else will Detroit throw to?

 

[-OZ-]

ome Odunze is going pretty late so nobody at pick 100 is really going to wreck your team. However, he's got a rookie QB and 2 Pro Bowl veteran WRs. As much I like Odunze, it's really diffcult to see a season where he becomes a fantasy star. Even if he totally passes up Allen, he's still the WR2 for a rookie QB which has historically hasn't been a very fruitful role

Rome is a player I probably wouldn’t choose to start most weeks. But as WR47 (pick 114) in best ball, I’m absolutely taking that and expecting to get more use from him than most others in that range. Very Big hit, small miss imo.

Stroud just supported the WR 7 and 19 (ppg). Of course Dell didn’t have an Allen to contend with, which makes Rome a tough start decision.

@Ilov80s - I’m not expecting Laporta to drop far, but it really wouldn’t shock me if he’s around the 7-9 range. I’d still draft him 1 or 2.

CJ Stroud is totally an outlier. What he did pretty much never happen. Plus I believe Nico and Dell didn't overlap much due to injuries. I think the Romeo pick even in best ball is a mistake. Nowhere near the upside season long or week to week that a RB there has or one of the young WRs who has a path being at the top of the target chain for a Pro Bowl QB. Too many unlikely things have to go right for Odunze to have a good fantasy season.

I just don't see how LaPorta falls to TE7-9 just based on target volume alone. Who else will Detroit throw to?

Lions have Gibbs, st brown and I think Jameson breaks out.

In best ball, I’ll gladly take Rome over everyone here except JSN. Jameson is close imo.

42	69	Rome Odunze CHI (7)	41.0
43	71	Ladd McConkey LAC (5)	41.5
44	75	Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (12)	44.0
45	77	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA (10)	45.0
46	81	Jordan Addison MIN (6)	46.5
47	80	Keon Coleman BUF (12)	46.5
48	86	Jameson Williams DET (5)	48.0
49	90	Curtis Samuel BUF (12)	49.0
50	92	Courtland Sutton DEN (14)

 

[Ilov80s]

ome Odunze is going pretty late so nobody at pick 100 is really going to wreck your team. However, he's got a rookie QB and 2 Pro Bowl veteran WRs. As much I like Odunze, it's really diffcult to see a season where he becomes a fantasy star. Even if he totally passes up Allen, he's still the WR2 for a rookie QB which has historically hasn't been a very fruitful role

Rome is a player I probably wouldn’t choose to start most weeks. But as WR47 (pick 114) in best ball, I’m absolutely taking that and expecting to get more use from him than most others in that range. Very Big hit, small miss imo.

Stroud just supported the WR 7 and 19 (ppg). Of course Dell didn’t have an Allen to contend with, which makes Rome a tough start decision.

@Ilov80s - I’m not expecting Laporta to drop far, but it really wouldn’t shock me if he’s around the 7-9 range. I’d still draft him 1 or 2.

CJ Stroud is totally an outlier. What he did pretty much never happen. Plus I believe Nico and Dell didn't overlap much due to injuries. I think the Romeo pick even in best ball is a mistake. Nowhere near the upside season long or week to week that a RB there has or one of the young WRs who has a path being at the top of the target chain for a Pro Bowl QB. Too many unlikely things have to go right for Odunze to have a good fantasy season.

I just don't see how LaPorta falls to TE7-9 just based on target volume alone. Who else will Detroit throw to?

Lions have Gibbs, st brown and I think Jameson breaks out.

Even if Jamo does break out, I don’t think he’s a high target guy. Gibbs is a pass catching RB and most teams have that as part of their offense. Amon Ra is for sure going to get targeted a ton but LaPorta is imo the absolute #2 option in the passing attack. A passing attack that lost 64 targets from last season with the departure of Josh Reynolds.

In best ball, I’ll gladly take Rome over everyone here except JSN. Jameson is close imo.

42	69	Rome Odunze CHI (7)	41.0
43	71	Ladd McConkey LAC (5)	41.5
44	75	Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (12)	44.0
45	77	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA (10)	45.0
46	81	Jordan Addison MIN (6)	46.5
47	80	Keon Coleman BUF (12)	46.5
48	86	Jameson Williams DET (5)	48.0
49	90	Curtis Samuel BUF (12)	49.0
50	92	Courtland Sutton DEN (14)

I definitely like all those guys a lot more than Rome for 2024 (except maybe Jamo and Addison- not sure about them). Samuel and Coleman both probably are nothing for this year but the top spot in the Josh Allen passing offense is up for grabs. I want to take swings at that because the payoff is potentially a WR1.

 

[-OZ-]

ome Odunze is going pretty late so nobody at pick 100 is really going to wreck your team. However, he's got a rookie QB and 2 Pro Bowl veteran WRs. As much I like Odunze, it's really diffcult to see a season where he becomes a fantasy star. Even if he totally passes up Allen, he's still the WR2 for a rookie QB which has historically hasn't been a very fruitful role

Rome is a player I probably wouldn’t choose to start most weeks. But as WR47 (pick 114) in best ball, I’m absolutely taking that and expecting to get more use from him than most others in that range. Very Big hit, small miss imo.

Stroud just supported the WR 7 and 19 (ppg). Of course Dell didn’t have an Allen to contend with, which makes Rome a tough start decision.

@Ilov80s - I’m not expecting Laporta to drop far, but it really wouldn’t shock me if he’s around the 7-9 range. I’d still draft him 1 or 2.

CJ Stroud is totally an outlier. What he did pretty much never happen. Plus I believe Nico and Dell didn't overlap much due to injuries. I think the Romeo pick even in best ball is a mistake. Nowhere near the upside season long or week to week that a RB there has or one of the young WRs who has a path being at the top of the target chain for a Pro Bowl QB. Too many unlikely things have to go right for Odunze to have a good fantasy season.

I just don't see how LaPorta falls to TE7-9 just based on target volume alone. Who else will Detroit throw to?

Lions have Gibbs, st brown and I think Jameson breaks out.

Even if Jamo does break out, I don’t think he’s a high target guy. Gibbs is a pass catching RB and most teams have that as part of their offense. Amon Ra is for sure going to get targeted a ton but LaPorta is imo the absolute #2 option in the passing attack. A passing attack that lost 64 targets from last season with the departure of Josh Reynolds.

In best ball, I’ll gladly take Rome over everyone here except JSN. Jameson is close imo.

42	69	Rome Odunze CHI (7)	41.0
43	71	Ladd McConkey LAC (5)	41.5
44	75	Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (12)	44.0
45	77	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA (10)	45.0
46	81	Jordan Addison MIN (6)	46.5
47	80	Keon Coleman BUF (12)	46.5
48	86	Jameson Williams DET (5)	48.0
49	90	Curtis Samuel BUF (12)	49.0
50	92	Courtland Sutton DEN (14)

I definitely like all those guys a lot more than Rome for 2024 (except maybe Jamo and Addison- not sure about them). Samuel and Coleman both probably are nothing for this year but the top spot in the Josh Allen passing offense is up for grabs. I want to take swings at that because the payoff is potentially a WR1.

Fair enough, it’s why we play the game. I really don’t see the bills producing a top 12 WR this year but if you wanted a safer play they’re probably solid picks here.

You’re probably right about Laporta. I’m just saying it wouldn’t be shocking to see him disappoint.

 

[-OZ-]

Big Hit, Small Miss

Olave, Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf for me fall into this category. Safe floors because of the target volume with some factors to potentially unlock their best case scenrio.

Maybe Olave just is a 1000-1100 and 4-6 guy but he's still young and is now getting put into a Shannahan system that should put him in motion more, get him some more clean looks and create some more explosive plays. He still has Carr at QB and that's not ideal but with a little more TD luck and some different usage in the RZ, he could be a 1200-1300 and 7-9 TD guy which would make him a WR1. Heck there's probably room for even more and to be CeeDee lite. Even if that doesn't come to fruition, he's going to get so many targets that he's not burning you.

Kind of a similar case for Amari Cooper. The targets will be there. We have enough history to know that he's going to be volatile week to week but the big splash games can literally win you a week. The upside comes from a potential full season with a healthy Watson at QB. Now Watson has become a bit of a punching bag for good reason but last year Cooper's per game numbers were better with him than without. Cooper's career per game average with Watson playing would produce a season of 76/1310/6. Now if we get a fully healthy and fully acclimated Watson there could be room to squeeze out even more production there and be one of the better WRs for fantasy.

DK Metcalf has kind of setteld into a productive but unspectacular WR2 role for fantasy but that's been on a slow paced, run focused Seattle team. Now enter a pass happy air it out OC and I think there is a chance DK has a career season in targets and yards. Maybe that doesn't happen but it's hard to see him not getting you a reliable 1000/7 as worst case scnerio. I do think there is a chance that we get the magical DK season many have been expecting after his big 2020 campaign.

Absolutely agree on DK.
I want no part of the browns passing game (but I’m stuck with Watson in SF dynasty). But AC is going late so maybe a great pick.
Olave is interesting. I see him as one of the safer plays near his ADP.

 

[Ilov80s]

Big Hit, Small Miss

Olave, Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf for me fall into this category. Safe floors because of the target volume with some factors to potentially unlock their best case scenrio.

Maybe Olave just is a 1000-1100 and 4-6 guy but he's still young and is now getting put into a Shannahan system that should put him in motion more, get him some more clean looks and create some more explosive plays. He still has Carr at QB and that's not ideal but with a little more TD luck and some different usage in the RZ, he could be a 1200-1300 and 7-9 TD guy which would make him a WR1. Heck there's probably room for even more and to be CeeDee lite. Even if that doesn't come to fruition, he's going to get so many targets that he's not burning you.

Kind of a similar case for Amari Cooper. The targets will be there. We have enough history to know that he's going to be volatile week to week but the big splash games can literally win you a week. The upside comes from a potential full season with a healthy Watson at QB. Now Watson has become a bit of a punching bag for good reason but last year Cooper's per game numbers were better with him than without. Cooper's career per game average with Watson playing would produce a season of 76/1310/6. Now if we get a fully healthy and fully acclimated Watson there could be room to squeeze out even more production there and be one of the better WRs for fantasy.

DK Metcalf has kind of setteld into a productive but unspectacular WR2 role for fantasy but that's been on a slow paced, run focused Seattle team. Now enter a pass happy air it out OC and I think there is a chance DK has a career season in targets and yards. Maybe that doesn't happen but it's hard to see him not getting you a reliable 1000/7 as worst case scnerio. I do think there is a chance that we get the magical DK season many have been expecting after his big 2020 campaign.

Absolutely agree on DK.
I want no part of the browns passing game (but I’m stuck with Watson in SF dynasty). But AC is going late so maybe a great pick.
Olave is interesting. I see him as one of the safer plays near his ADP.

I was with you on the Browns but then I looked and Watson was better than I remembered last year. Take the game he got hurt early and only threw like 5 passes and his season pace was 3880/24. Not elite but plenty good enough to get some fantasy value from his WR1 and another option.

I agree Olave is very safe- even his worst non injury outcome is probably still a weekly starter. I think he has big upside too with the change in scheme.

 

[Ilov80s]

ome Odunze is going pretty late so nobody at pick 100 is really going to wreck your team. However, he's got a rookie QB and 2 Pro Bowl veteran WRs. As much I like Odunze, it's really diffcult to see a season where he becomes a fantasy star. Even if he totally passes up Allen, he's still the WR2 for a rookie QB which has historically hasn't been a very fruitful role

Rome is a player I probably wouldn’t choose to start most weeks. But as WR47 (pick 114) in best ball, I’m absolutely taking that and expecting to get more use from him than most others in that range. Very Big hit, small miss imo.

Stroud just supported the WR 7 and 19 (ppg). Of course Dell didn’t have an Allen to contend with, which makes Rome a tough start decision.

@Ilov80s - I’m not expecting Laporta to drop far, but it really wouldn’t shock me if he’s around the 7-9 range. I’d still draft him 1 or 2.

CJ Stroud is totally an outlier. What he did pretty much never happen. Plus I believe Nico and Dell didn't overlap much due to injuries. I think the Romeo pick even in best ball is a mistake. Nowhere near the upside season long or week to week that a RB there has or one of the young WRs who has a path being at the top of the target chain for a Pro Bowl QB. Too many unlikely things have to go right for Odunze to have a good fantasy season.

I just don't see how LaPorta falls to TE7-9 just based on target volume alone. Who else will Detroit throw to?

Lions have Gibbs, st brown and I think Jameson breaks out.

Even if Jamo does break out, I don’t think he’s a high target guy. Gibbs is a pass catching RB and most teams have that as part of their offense. Amon Ra is for sure going to get targeted a ton but LaPorta is imo the absolute #2 option in the passing attack. A passing attack that lost 64 targets from last season with the departure of Josh Reynolds.

In best ball, I’ll gladly take Rome over everyone here except JSN. Jameson is close imo.

42	69	Rome Odunze CHI (7)	41.0
43	71	Ladd McConkey LAC (5)	41.5
44	75	Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (12)	44.0
45	77	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA (10)	45.0
46	81	Jordan Addison MIN (6)	46.5
47	80	Keon Coleman BUF (12)	46.5
48	86	Jameson Williams DET (5)	48.0
49	90	Curtis Samuel BUF (12)	49.0
50	92	Courtland Sutton DEN (14)

I definitely like all those guys a lot more than Rome for 2024 (except maybe Jamo and Addison- not sure about them). Samuel and Coleman both probably are nothing for this year but the top spot in the Josh Allen passing offense is up for grabs. I want to take swings at that because the payoff is potentially a WR1.

Fair enough, it’s why we play the game. I really don’t see the bills producing a top 12 WR this year but if you wanted a safer play they’re probably solid picks here.

You’re probably right about Laporta. I’m just saying it wouldn’t be shocking to see him disappoint.

I don't see the Bills producing 2 top 12 WRs either. They probably don't produce 1 but the role of Josh Allen's top WR is wide open and those are gambles with really really high upside.

 

[cheese]

First of all, big fan of the concept.

Some small miss, big hit guys for me…

Early- Copper Kupp, what if last year was just the injuries? Hes not far removed from being WR1 in fantasy with the same QB and coach. We’ve seen the ceiling, it’s WR1 overall. If he misses, it’s probably his health. The games he plays you will still get a solid WR and backfill the rest of the year. That won’t kill you as a 3rd round pick.

Middle- Chase Brown, there is a chance he’s one of the most explosive young backs in the league tied to an elite qb and a role up for grabs. If all lands right, he’s last years Achane trying to play more games. Could be a big hit. If he’s not, he’s a time share back on a good offense after pick 100. It will be hard to know when to start him in managed, but that is fine for ROI.

Late- Will Levis, New system, talented QB with good weapons goes at the very end of drafts. I think we could see him make a massive leap and do some of what Stroud did last year. If not, he’s close to free in most formats and QB2 is easy to replace.

 

[Ilov80s]

First of all, big fan of the concept.

Some small miss, big hit guys for me…

Early- Copper Kupp, what if last year was just the injuries? Hes not far removed from being WR1 in fantasy with the same QB and coach. We’ve seen the ceiling, it’s WR1 overall. If he misses, it’s probably his health. The games he plays you will still get a solid WR and backfill the rest of the year. That won’t kill you as a 3rd round pick.

Middle- Chase Brown, there is a chance he’s one of the most explosive young backs in the league tied to an elite qb and a role up for grabs. If all lands right, he’s last years Achane trying to play more games. Could be a big hit. If he’s not, he’s a time share back on a good off base after pick 100. It will be hard to know when to start him in managed, but that is fine for ROI.

Late- Will Levis, New system, talented QB with good weapons goes at the very end of drafts. I think we could see him make a massive leap and do some of what Stroud did last year. If not, he’s close to free in most formats and QB2 is easy to replace.

Love both those calls except I have a hard time seeing big upside for Levi’s given the offense he’s on. But he’s certainly well worth taking at his cost.

 

[cheese]

Big miss, Small hit guys I’ll throw out-

Early- Texans WRs, I have a lot of doubts about this offense reproducing last season, but even if they do you have to hope you don’t land on the one that takes a back seat here. And even if you guess right, you a probably getting rewarded with exactly what you paid for. There is just no way all 3 should be going this high for any offense, let alone an offense/QB/coach that’s shown us something once.

Middle- ZWhite/RWhite/Kamara/Walker/etc…. There is a decent chance you can pick a RB in this range at RB17 and get RB15 finish just on volume. However, picking mediocre player with mediocre offense just for a role can go south quickly specifically at RB and you are left holding the bag like Miles Sanders last year. These types have some utility in home leagues, but they also cost you a bullet at a bigger swing.

Late- Justin Herbert- just not going to be in a situation to put up fantasy points and he’s going dangerously close to the range people will count on him most weeks. Run based offense with bad weapons and yet their team may still be ahead a lot? Not a recipe for upside. You won’t miss him if you pass and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s unusable. Might as well be the Steelers qb.

 

[JohnnyU]

DeMarcus Robinson could be a late hit given Kupp can't stay healthy and he isn't getting any younger. Robinson would be the clear #2.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

DeMarcus Robinson could be a late hit given Kupp can't stay healthy and he isn't getting any younger. Robinson would be the clear #2.

I agree he is a good late round bench stash. This team will be throwing a lot and Stafford is good at it.

 

[jm192]

I believe it was Ben Gretch and Sean Siegele talking about this concept. Some players are a big miss, small hit while others are a big hit, small. The example they used:

Big Miss, Small Hit:
Jake Ferguson- I think most people see him as just a guy who's value for fantasy is entirely tied to targets from a good QB on a team lacking in pass game options. If Ferguson is a hit, he probably isn't exceeding his ADP by too much. It's hard to see him being more than a TE7 even with his best possible outcome. However, there is a world where Cooks, Tolbert, Flournoy, etc. are better than we expect and Schoonmaker is much improved (he was a 2nd round pick with good athleticism) and Ferguson turns into a total bust who isn't even on rosters by midseason.

Big Hit, Small Miss:
Sam LaPorta- he just had one of the all time great rookie TE seasons in NFL history and is the #2 target on a high powered offense. It's possible Jamo is more involved, Gibbs catches more passes, TD regression hits and people drafting him as TE1 are disappointed but it's pretty hard to see a non-injury related outcome where he's not a weekly must start. However, if he does improve from Y1 there is a world where we see a Kelce like season where he just clearly separates himself from every TE. 100/1200/12 is not out of the question here and those taking him could be significantly rewarded for their investment.

What other players do we see as either Big Miss/Small Hit or Big Hit/Small Miss? Does this make sense?

I'm not sure I see Ferguson that way. What's his ADP? Looking at the FBG ADP tool, it looks like he's going late 7th to 8th round. I don't think a 7th or 8th round pick at the TE position is going to set you back THAT much. And taking him there let's your load up on RB/WR. You're saying there is a world where cooks, Tolbert, etc. are better than we expect. But how likely is that? Cooks has been on the decline. The others haven't shown anything. Ferguson was the #2 target in one of the best passing games in the league last year as a 2nd year player. Logically, I think he'll continue to be heavily involved and has room for more production.

I think in the realm of "There's a world where..." it's more likely he takes a big leap than he becomes a total bust. He's going into his 3rd year. He's on one of the best passing offenses in the league. You've got Ceedee and then Ferguson. No one else has shown anything.

I don't have Ferguson in any keeper or dynasty leagues. I just think he's a guy that's pretty safe for a later TE investment with upside for more.

 

[jm192]

First of all, big fan of the concept.

Some small miss, big hit guys for me…

Early- Copper Kupp, what if last year was just the injuries? Hes not far removed from being WR1 in fantasy with the same QB and coach. We’ve seen the ceiling, it’s WR1 overall. If he misses, it’s probably his health. The games he plays you will still get a solid WR and backfill the rest of the year. That won’t kill you as a 3rd round pick.

Middle- Chase Brown, there is a chance he’s one of the most explosive young backs in the league tied to an elite qb and a role up for grabs. If all lands right, he’s last years Achane trying to play more games. Could be a big hit. If he’s not, he’s a time share back on a good offense after pick 100. It will be hard to know when to start him in managed, but that is fine for ROI.

Late- Will Levis, New system, talented QB with good weapons goes at the very end of drafts. I think we could see him make a massive leap and do some of what Stroud did last year. If not, he’s close to free in most formats and QB2 is easy to replace.

I think people keep forgetting Puka Nacua didn't exist on the Rams when Kupp was WR1.

Fantasy production is about talent and opportunity. At 31, I'm not sure Kupp is 100% of the same guy he was 2 and 3 years ago. Maybe he is. But we don't have to argue about that part.

He got 190 targets in 2021. He didn't have any big time pass catchers to compete with for targets. Now he has a stud WR alongside him. Puka earned a lot of trust from Stafford last year. It may be a 1A/1B situation. Kupp can still be solid. But people keep throwing around "WR1 overall" like that's within reach.

Between being 31, the last 2 years of injuries, and now Puka being another alpha pass catcher--I don't think that's on the table.

He was WR25 on a PPG basis last year, which would make him the best WR3 in a 12 team PPR league. There's nothing wrong with that. But given the injury history, I think people are taking on extra risk hoping for that WR1 ceiling when I really don't think it exists anymore.

 

[jm192]

Big Hit, Small Miss

Olave, Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf for me fall into this category. Safe floors because of the target volume with some factors to potentially unlock their best case scenrio.

Maybe Olave just is a 1000-1100 and 4-6 guy but he's still young and is now getting put into a Shannahan system that should put him in motion more, get him some more clean looks and create some more explosive plays. He still has Carr at QB and that's not ideal but with a little more TD luck and some different usage in the RZ, he could be a 1200-1300 and 7-9 TD guy which would make him a WR1. Heck there's probably room for even more and to be CeeDee lite. Even if that doesn't come to fruition, he's going to get so many targets that he's not burning you.

Kind of a similar case for Amari Cooper. The targets will be there. We have enough history to know that he's going to be volatile week to week but the big splash games can literally win you a week. The upside comes from a potential full season with a healthy Watson at QB. Now Watson has become a bit of a punching bag for good reason but last year Cooper's per game numbers were better with him than without. Cooper's career per game average with Watson playing would produce a season of 76/1310/6. Now if we get a fully healthy and fully acclimated Watson there could be room to squeeze out even more production there and be one of the better WRs for fantasy.

DK Metcalf has kind of setteld into a productive but unspectacular WR2 role for fantasy but that's been on a slow paced, run focused Seattle team. Now enter a pass happy air it out OC and I think there is a chance DK has a career season in targets and yards. Maybe that doesn't happen but it's hard to see him not getting you a reliable 1000/7 as worst case scnerio. I do think there is a chance that we get the magical DK season many have been expecting after his big 2020 campaign.

Absolutely agree on DK.
I want no part of the browns passing game (but I’m stuck with Watson in SF dynasty). But AC is going late so maybe a great pick.
Olave is interesting. I see him as one of the safer plays near his ADP.

I'm team Cooper for sure.

Had really good stats when Watson played last year. Has averaged 1200/7 the last 2 years despite a subpar passing game/qb situation. Definitely seems like a solid value ADP wise.