Big Week for Devery Henderson? (1 Viewer)

[spork]

Short and sweet...

BUSH is looking strong and should draw some attention from the 'boys

Colston should be back but might not be at 100%... will face the toughest coverage

Horn is less than 100

Henderson is the deep threat in this offense and late in the game I expect NO to be down and gunning deep to try to come back against the Cowboys.

Thoughts?

 

[Banger]

Short and sweet...BUSH is looking strong and should draw some attention from the 'boysColston should be back but might not be at 100%... will face the toughest coverageHorn is less than 100Henderson is the deep threat in this offense and late in the game I expect NO to be down and gunning deep to try to come back against the Cowboys. Thoughts?

why wouldn't they put the toughest coverage on Henderson since the other two aren't near 100%? The Cowboys will look to stop the guy that has the biggest potential to hurt them, no?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

3 drops for about 50 total yards last week.

not a good sign.

 

[Tat]

If Horn is out, I may be starting both Colston and Henderson.

At least I have a BYE this week in the playoffs.

 

[Bri]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=293359

this thread sorta shifted

 

[Wingnut]

COPPER

 

[Cenobite]

COPPER

I have Horn and added Copper for depth. I am considering starting him over C. Henry. IIRC Copper was released from the Cowboys. Assuming Horn and Colston are out, D. Henderson and Bush which get a lot of attention from the pass D which may increase Copper's role. Dallas has been good against the run avging 3.6 yds. Who the heck knows.

 

[JHicks22]

Colston should play and put up solid numbers, taking away from Henderson's value. Colston could have played last week but they held him out to give him another week to rest the ankle. Dallas' defense is peaking right now... should be interesting

 

[Marc Levin]

Bush, Colston, Horn, Copper, Henderson

In that order.

If any can't go for the game, move the others up one slot, but that's it.

Less than 100% or not, if Horn and/or Colston are on the field, they will outperform Copper/Henderson.

Henderson's drops are extremely painful to his chances to see targets this week - Dallas has a good pass D, and I doubt Brees will sacrifice a good pass for a bad drop. Might have been able to risk it against a porous pass D, but not against the 'boys.

 

[fsufan]

if Horn and Colston are out I would not be surprised to see Bush lead the team in catches and rec. yards. He is leading the team in catches YTD

 

[Sidewinder]

Colston should play and put up solid numbers, taking away from Henderson's value. Colston could have played last week but they held him out to give him another week to rest the ankle. ...

Please provide link. I'd be interested in where you got this info. It contradicts everything that's been reported here in New Orleans the past 5 days, including direct comments from Colston ...

Bush, Colston, Horn, Copper, Henderson

In that order.

If any can't go for the game, move the others up one slot, but that's it.

Less than 100% or not, if Horn and/or Colston are on the field, they will outperform Copper/Henderson.

...

I'd have Copper and Henderson essentially equal, despite Devery's drops last week. Copper got zero targets last week. Not sure why (didn't watch him closely enough), probably just a function of Brees doing what he does best, taking what the defense gives him. I'd at least have them equal simply based on Henderson's penchant for having the random huge game.

 

[Marc Levin]

I'd have Copper and Henderson essentially equal, despite Devery's drops last week. Copper got zero targets last week. Not sure why (didn't watch him closely enough), probably just a function of Brees doing what he does best, taking what the defense gives him. I'd at least have them equal simply based on Henderson's penchant for having the random huge game.

OK then.Won't really change anything for me as I expect both Colston and Horn to take the field no matter how close to 100% they are. Way too important a game for them to miss it, even if they are only 80% ready.

I think that the guy who thought Colston could go this past week is confusing it with the week before when Colston gave it a go and couldn't play - this past week, he was inactive on game day and there were rumblings from Friday forward (limited/missed practice, IIRC) that he wouldn't be able to go.

 

[Bri]

Marc isn't Horn out?

 

[Sidewinder]

Won't really change anything for me as I expect both Colston and Horn to take the field no matter how close to 100% they are. Way too important a game for them to miss it, even if they are only 80% ready....

Fair enough. Re: Horn. He has a slight groin tear -- likely going to show up on the injury report as questionable, but the guys who cover the Saints locally said last night no way he plays for at least a couple of weeks.

 

[Marc Levin]

Bri - I trust Sidewinder.

Horn will be out.

 

[Marc Levin]

Sidewinder, or any NO homer, if I recall from a few weeks ago, some NO homer posted that Copper is Horn's direct b/u and Henderson is Colston's

Is that true?

If that is true, wouldn't Copper see more plays than Henderson?

 

[Bri]

Sidewinder, or any NO homer, if I recall from a few weeks ago, some NO homer posted that Copper is Horn's direct b/u and Henderson is Colston's

Is that true?

If that is true, wouldn't Copper see more plays than Henderson?

Marchttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=293359

 

[Sidewinder]

Sidewinder, or any NO homer, if I recall from a few weeks ago, some NO homer posted that Copper is Horn's direct b/u and Henderson is Colston's

Is that true?

If that is true, wouldn't Copper see more plays than Henderson?

Marc, yes, someone asked this in the Colston thread, and I answered here.As far as expectations for Copper, he played nearly the entire game last week (Horn went out mid-first quarter) and did not get one pass thrown his way. So who knows....

 

[Marc Levin]

But, Horn might not have seen any targets either with the way Bush was playing.

Sub Colston for Henderson, insert Copper for Horn, and Henderson looks to be the one out in the cold.

 

[Sidewinder]

But, Horn might not have seen any targets either with the way Bush was playing.

...

True. Deuce was running very well, so it was opening the perimeters for Bush.

...

Sub Colston for Henderson, insert Copper for Horn, and Henderson looks to be the one out in the cold.

Not sure you can make a blanket statement like that. But all I can give you are the stats for the two games where it was Colston and Copper starting, with Devery the third WR, just like you suggest:Wk 9 at Tampa

Colston: 11 catches, 123 yards, 1 TD

Henderson: 3 catches, 111 yards, 2 TDs

Copper: 1 catch, 11 yards (3 targets total)

Wk 10 at Pittsburgh

Colston: 10 catches, 169 yards

Henderson: 0 catches (and zero targets)

Copper: 6 catches, 92 yards, 1 TD

 

[Marc Levin]

But, Horn might not have seen any targets either with the way Bush was playing.

...

True. Deuce was running very well, so it was opening the perimeters for Bush.

...

Sub Colston for Henderson, insert Copper for Horn, and Henderson looks to be the one out in the cold.

Not sure you can make a blanket statement like that. But all I can give you are the stats for the two games where it was Colston and Copper starting, with Devery the third WR, just like you suggest:Wk 9 at Tampa

Colston: 11 catches, 123 yards, 1 TD

Henderson: 3 catches, 111 yards, 2 TDs

Copper: 1 catch, 11 yards (3 targets total)

Wk 10 at Pittsburgh

Colston: 10 catches, 169 yards

Henderson: 0 catches (and zero targets)

Copper: 6 catches, 92 yards, 1 TD

Wow. One A+ game, one FAverages to a C?

And those were back to back weeks.

So, expecting Henderson to be big? Bad call.

Hoping for him to be big and using him as your WR3? Could be a good call.

 

[Marc Levin]

P.S. - what worries me about that TB game is only 4 targets - 3 catches, 2 for TDs, and 111 yards.

That game looks like the outlier game - he caught a 52 yard TD AND a 45 yard TD.

Weeks 11 and 12 - two games withOUT Colston - look to be his more reasonable upside if he starts. 24 targets in the three games w/o Colston, 17 in all other games (with a healthy Colston).

The targets while a starter versus the taregts while a third receiver are the more important numbers, IMO - certainly a bigger sample size than his one game from the 3 where he had 2 big plays on 4 targets.

For me, if Colston is playing, I think Henderson is a long shot to have a decent game. If Colston's out, he is a GREAT play.

 

[spork]

So, expecting Henderson to be big? Bad call.Hoping for him to be big and using him as your WR3? Could be a good call.

I'm not calling it for sure... was merely suggesting it be worth a closer look. That said... the more I look at the play the more I like it... .care to make a friendly wager on it?70 and 1 or 100 and 0You want the under?

 

[Marc Levin]

So, expecting Henderson to be big? Bad call.Hoping for him to be big and using him as your WR3? Could be a good call.

I'm not calling it for sure... was merely suggesting it be worth a closer look. That said... the more I look at the play the more I like it... .care to make a friendly wager on it?70 and 1 or 100 and 0You want the under?

I could care less what Henderson does, and it is looking like Colston won;t go so my subsequent post kicks in:

For me, if Colston is playing, I think Henderson is a long shot to have a decent game. If Colston's out, he is a GREAT play.

 

[spork]

So, expecting Henderson to be big? Bad call.Hoping for him to be big and using him as your WR3? Could be a good call.

I'm not calling it for sure... was merely suggesting it be worth a closer look. That said... the more I look at the play the more I like it... .care to make a friendly wager on it?70 and 1 or 100 and 0You want the under?

I could care less what Henderson does, and it is looking like Colston won;t go so my subsequent post kicks in:

For me, if Colston is playing, I think Henderson is a long shot to have a decent game. If Colston's out, he is a GREAT play.

K Just FYI I wasn't trying to puff my chest out with the bet... was just talkin gentlemen's bet / trash talk bet

 

[Marc Levin]

Just FYI I wasn't trying to puff my chest out with the bet... was just talkin gentlemen's bet / trash talk bet

But I'd be betting against what I think will happen - w/o Colston and Horn, Henderson could see 8-12 targets (or more).

 

[kensat30]

Horn is out with the aggravated groin. That is a given for me, I mean even if he does play you don't wanna start a guy with a groin issue. See Joe Horn last year and Eric Moulds a few years ago, it is just not pretty.

Colston STILL questionable BTW? Missed practice today. If the guy doesn't play a full practice on Friday and/or get upgraded to probable, he is not playing.

The question I think that needs to be asked is:

If it's Henderson AND Copper starting, do you really want to go with either one? Last week they both bombed. Matchup or WRs? To me it seems like both Henderson and Copper ride the coattails of the playmakers and find soft coverage all over the field. Neither one is that good of an actual NFL WR..

 

[gzilla]

Horn is out with the aggravated groin. That is a given for me, I mean even if he does play you don't wanna start a guy with a groin issue. See Joe Horn last year and Eric Moulds a few years ago, it is just not pretty.Colston STILL questionable BTW? Missed practice today. If the guy doesn't play a full practice on Friday and/or get upgraded to probable, he is not playing. The question I think that needs to be asked is:If it's Henderson AND Copper starting, do you really want to go with either one? Last week they both bombed. Matchup or WRs? To me it seems like both Henderson and Copper ride the coattails of the playmakers and find soft coverage all over the field. Neither one is that good of an actual NFL WR..

I agree with this.The best scenario for Henderson is to have either Horn or Colston (not both) play. That makes him the #2 and will allow him to run the deeper routes at which he excels. He catches those passes better also.If neither play, I think the Saints passing game is much more limited. Brees seems to operate a little differently and shortens the passing game considerably.

 

[Marc Levin]

Horn is out with the aggravated groin. That is a given for me, I mean even if he does play you don't wanna start a guy with a groin issue. See Joe Horn last year and Eric Moulds a few years ago, it is just not pretty.Colston STILL questionable BTW? Missed practice today. If the guy doesn't play a full practice on Friday and/or get upgraded to probable, he is not playing. The question I think that needs to be asked is:If it's Henderson AND Copper starting, do you really want to go with either one? Last week they both bombed. Matchup or WRs? To me it seems like both Henderson and Copper ride the coattails of the playmakers and find soft coverage all over the field. Neither one is that good of an actual NFL WR..

I agree with this.The best scenario for Henderson is to have either Horn or Colston (not both) play. That makes him the #2

As has been discussed already in this thread and in the Colston thread, Copper comes in for HOrn, Henderson for Colston. His numbers as the third receiver (which is what he is if Colston is starting) are suspect. His numbers if Colston is out are good in 2 of 3 games - and his target numbers are relatively predictable.

 

[gzilla]

Horn is out with the aggravated groin. That is a given for me, I mean even if he does play you don't wanna start a guy with a groin issue. See Joe Horn last year and Eric Moulds a few years ago, it is just not pretty.Colston STILL questionable BTW? Missed practice today. If the guy doesn't play a full practice on Friday and/or get upgraded to probable, he is not playing. The question I think that needs to be asked is:If it's Henderson AND Copper starting, do you really want to go with either one? Last week they both bombed. Matchup or WRs? To me it seems like both Henderson and Copper ride the coattails of the playmakers and find soft coverage all over the field. Neither one is that good of an actual NFL WR..

I agree with this.The best scenario for Henderson is to have either Horn or Colston (not both) play. That makes him the #2

As has been discussed already in this thread and in the Colston thread, Copper comes in for HOrn, Henderson for Colston. His numbers as the third receiver (which is what he is if Colston is starting) are suspect. His numbers if Colston is out are good in 2 of 3 games - and his target numbers are relatively predictable.

Unfortunately it is not that simple. You are probably right that shoudl Colston start, Copper would get the start (that is what has happened so far), but in practice, Devery will be on the field for a good number of 2 WR sets with Colston...about the same number if it were Horn who played instead of Colston.Nevertheless, the point I was trying to make was that Devery needs that possession WR who can take that burden off of him so that he can do what he does best. If Colston and Horn are out, I wouldn't feel good about starting him assuming I had other alternatives.

 

[Marc Levin]

Nevertheless, the point I was trying to make was that Devery needs that possession WR who can take that burden off of him so that he can do what he does best. If Colston and Horn are out, I wouldn't feel good about starting him assuming I had other alternatives.

I agree that if the defense can keep double coverage on him, Henderson won't be able to do what he does best - get downfield against single coverage.That said, the only example of him havig performed well while Colston was on the field was an aberrant (IMO) game: 2 TDs on 4 targets, both TDs for more than 45 yards.In no other game where COlston was onthe field did he sniff anything like that kind of production - his best game other than that one was a 51/1 game.Like I showed above, he's had 24 targets in 3 games with Colston out - he had 17 targets combined in all his other games.He needs Horn playing and Colston sitting, IMO. Since it is now looking very probable that both sit, how do you rate Henderson this weekend?

 

[Bri]

Horn is out with the aggravated groin. That is a given for me, I mean even if he does play you don't wanna start a guy with a groin issue. See Joe Horn last year and Eric Moulds a few years ago, it is just not pretty.Colston STILL questionable BTW? Missed practice today. If the guy doesn't play a full practice on Friday and/or get upgraded to probable, he is not playing. The question I think that needs to be asked is:If it's Henderson AND Copper starting, do you really want to go with either one? Last week they both bombed. Matchup or WRs? To me it seems like both Henderson and Copper ride the coattails of the playmakers and find soft coverage all over the field. Neither one is that good of an actual NFL WR..

Copper+Payton's old team not sure how much that matters.Brees has been phenomenal. More often than not I give him the credit and think the WRs are just the beneficiaries. The Boys can bring the pressure and Newman is pretty good. Then the WRs will get hammerred by Roy. It's some well earned yardage. Without looking at stats, the veteran teams that just keep plugging along hurt the Boys. I'm not sure Copper and Devery can handle it. It's all on Brees IMO.FWIW I wouldn't be surprised if these two teams play again

 

[Wingnut]

Horn is out with the aggravated groin. That is a given for me, I mean even if he does play you don't wanna start a guy with a groin issue. See Joe Horn last year and Eric Moulds a few years ago, it is just not pretty.Colston STILL questionable BTW? Missed practice today. If the guy doesn't play a full practice on Friday and/or get upgraded to probable, he is not playing. The question I think that needs to be asked is:If it's Henderson AND Copper starting, do you really want to go with either one? Last week they both bombed. Matchup or WRs? To me it seems like both Henderson and Copper ride the coattails of the playmakers and find soft coverage all over the field. Neither one is that good of an actual NFL WR..

I agree with this.The best scenario for Henderson is to have either Horn or Colston (not both) play. That makes him the #2 and will allow him to run the deeper routes at which he excels. He catches those passes better also.If neither play, I think the Saints passing game is much more limited. Brees seems to operate a little differently and shortens the passing game considerably.

This could bode very well for both Deuce and Bush.

 

[spork]

This could bode very well for both Deuce and Bush.

Except that the Saints will be playing from behind late... taking the running game out of the equation.... They're going to have to go deep to someone in the 4th quarter... my bet is that will be Henderson

 

[Riflemen]

Horn is dead to me. Can't trust that guy ever again.

 

[omally]

Henderson needs to stop dropping balls to have a good day.

 

[Marc Levin]

This could bode very well for both Deuce and Bush.

Except that the Saints will be playing from behind late...

I completely disagree. I think this will be a much closer game than folks think. First of all, the NO defense is underrated by all of us, but I guarantee you Parcells knows how good their pass D is. I would expect a lot of the running game out of Dallas to control the clock.I'll guess 28-17 final score infavor of Dallas, but 10-10 halftime. Plenty of offensive possessions for both sides and loads of running from both teams is my guess for the flow of this game.