Bigger Fantasy Football Projection Miss: Le'Veon Bell in 2018 or David Johnson in 2017? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

I asked this in the Shark Pool but thought I'd ask here too as it's also a question about projections in general. Be it fantasy football or predicting election results.

I've been thinking a lot about Le'Veon Bell lately. Specifically about how badly I missed on his projection. We had him as a top 10 overall pick and he never saw the field.

It's been interesting talking to other people. Some have suggested our miss on Bell was no different than how we missed on David Johnson in 2017 where he was projected as a top pick and as you know was injured in the first game and didn't play for the rest of the year.

So I thought I'd ask you folks. 

What was the bigger fantasy football projection miss - Le'Veon Bell in 2018 or David Johnson in 2017?

 

[eoMMan]

Bell.

Injuries happen and shouldn't be compared to hold outs, imo.

 

[Capella]

How could you possibly know either would happen. 

Anybody upset about either is nuts. Fantasy football is 90% luck. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

How could you possibly know either would happen. 

Anybody upset about either is nuts. Fantasy football is 90% luck. 

Would you say both were roughly equal on the misses?

 

[Capella]

Would you say both were roughly equal on the misses?

Yea. I don’t think anybody reasonably expected Leveon to sit out the whole year. In August weren’t people talking about him sitting 2 weeks? He went #2 overall in my league and I can asssure you the guy who took him doesn’t visit here so it was pretty well accepted. 

 

[Long Ball Larry]

No way to predict the injury.  Insane to complain about that

Holdout was  a known issue, so should have been factored in, but I  had 1 draft on the Friday night before the season and honestly didn't even give the holdout a thought at all when I took Bell number 1, as I figured it was just posturing.

In an overall ranking, probably could have dinged Bell slightly, but still.

 

[Zegras11]

Johnson bigger miss.   You could plan and draft Conner as a temp replacement.  

 

[Cjw_55106]

I said equal, but wouldnt qualify either as misses. 

 

[CGRdrJoe]

Bad beat /dentist 

 

[Short Corner]

Please don't pollute the FFA with Shark Pool rubbish.

 

[encaitar]

I don't know if you can call either of these missed projections.  A guy getting injured doesn't mean you missed on your top 10 call for him, it's just a thing that happens in fantasy.  Bell deciding to give up $14.5M is something that no one would've guessed, so can't call that projection a miss either.

I only really consider it a miss when a guy completely under performs what was expected while playing most of the season.  Like Matt Ryan last year.

 

[Guest]

Wouldn't call either a "miss".  Wouldn't someone like Julio Jones be considered a bigger miss so far?

 

[Angry Beavers]

Bell

For Johnson injuries happen and you can not predict them. For Bell the writing was on the wall after they did not reach a long term deal and as such Bell should have been dinged in the rankings. For some reason this was very clear to me and i drafted Conner everywhere,  even in mid August, and passed on Bell. I wish i had that level of insight/predictive ability for other matters too!! ?

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Bell by a mile.  The entire fantasy expert community basically ignored the concept of the possibility of him sitting out the entire season until like 10 days ago.  One of the posters in the Shark Pool read the CBA several weeks ago and said that Leveon could sit the entire season far before any journalists or fantasy experts really painted it as a possibility.  Seems to me that many people that should have had a thorough understanding of the CBA really didn't do their due diligence. (this is not a shot at Joe or staff).

 

[Don Quixote]

When was the referenced projection on Bell as a Top 10 pick made?  I probably would have had him as a Top 10 pick up through around the third preseason game, but would have dropped him down after that as the possibility of him sitting out in a way that stretched into the season increased.

 

[Mene]

They honestly don't seem comparable.  Johnson was an injury, nobody could project for that.  With Bell, before the first game, we knew there was a chance of this.  How high the odds of him missing the entire season were could be debated, but it was something that was possible based on the information you had at the time.  You had no information at all that could lead to fearing Johnson would miss the season.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Bell by a mile.  The entire fantasy expert community basically ignored the concept of the possibility of him sitting out the entire season until like 10 days ago.

Those are for whom the bell tolls.

 

[Joe Bryant]

When was the referenced projection on Bell as a Top 10 pick made?  I probably would have had him as a Top 10 pick up through around the third preseason game, but would have dropped him down after that as the possibility of him sitting out in a way that stretched into the season increased.

Earlier in the summer. By the last preseason games, we had more like RB12 I think. Which is still like around 180 or so fantasy points, depending on the scoring system. He'll of course score 0 fantasy points this year. That's a big miss. 

 

[rockaction]

Earlier in the summer. By the last preseason games, we had more like RB12 I think. Which is still like around 180 or so fantasy points, depending on the scoring system. He'll of course score 0 fantasy points this year. That's a big miss. 

I went nowhere near Bell with my pick and was surprised someone did. David Johnson got hurt after actually taking the field. Two very differing stories, IMHO.  

But neither is a "miss" from a staff standpoint. Who would have thought it? Except those of us familiar with the Bell situation.   

 

[Galileo]

Our league draft order is based upon finishing position from the previous year.  Since I always finish high up in the league, I pick at the back end of the draft and never get the opportunity to miss on guys like Bell and Johnson.  So, instead, I missed on Fournette.  

 

[Don Quixote]

Earlier in the summer. By the last preseason games, we had more like RB12 I think. Which is still like around 180 or so fantasy points, depending on the scoring system. He'll of course score 0 fantasy points this year. That's a big miss. 

I probably still would have taken the chance on him around RB12 at that point, so I don't think a whiff.

I'd put down Bloom's "first round Gronk" as a bigger miss.

 

[Guest]

I probably still would have taken the chance on him around RB12 at that point, so I don't think a whiff.

I'd put down Bloom's "first round Gronk" as a bigger miss.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I asked this in the Shark Pool but thought I'd ask here too as it's also a question about projections in general. Be it fantasy football or predicting election results.

I've been thinking a lot about Le'Veon Bell lately. Specifically about how badly I missed on his projection. We had him as a top 10 overall pick and he never saw the field.

It's been interesting talking to other people. Some have suggested our miss on Bell was no different than how we missed on David Johnson in 2017 where he was projected as a top pick and as you know was injured in the first game and didn't play for the rest of the year.

So I thought I'd ask you folks. 

What was the bigger fantasy football projection miss - Le'Veon Bell in 2018 or David Johnson in 2017?

Bell by a mile and I’ll tell you why - every single week the owner had to decide if he would hold Bell or trade him away for a lot. Like a lot a lot, even until the last week. So that’s 10 weeks of decision making that’s required to hold Bell and then get zippo for the sunk cost. Same is true if the pro FF fold making the projections, every week that ROS projection was made and every week it was wrong.

DJ it was game 1 and that’s it.