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Biggest bust of the year (1 Viewer)

B

Badgers Fan

Footballguy
Here are my top 3:

1. Ryan Mathews- great talent and opportunity, but he has never stayed healthy, even in college. He should do great on a per game basis, but 350 touches isn't going to be possible for this guy. I think he misses 3+ games and is limited in a couple others. This years version of Darren McFadden last year.

2. Steven Jackson- The breakdown is coming. He is my favorite player in the NFL, but I think he starts his decline this year. His 3.9 2nd half ypc might be an indicator of decline. He already has a lack of td's and a history of injuries.

3. Jordy Nelson- I don't think he'll have a terrible season. I think he'll finish around 65/1050/8. Those 15 td's and 18.6 ypc won't be repeated, I'd bet everything I own on that. While I don't think he'll be a super bust, he's being drafted as a borderline wr1. I think he's a mid-tier wr2 at best (personally I currently have him ranked 22nd). I look at the guys behind him and I think that in "expert" leagues he probably goes lower than his ADP of wr12, 38th overall.

Who are your busts?

 
I saw the thread title and came on to say Ryan Mathews, surprised you beat me to it. I just remember from college seeing a kid who could explode for big plays but seemed to always find his way to an injury. I doubt i spend a 1st round pick ever on such a frail player. Can he turn it around? Sure, but I need to see it first. This would be like taking Jahvid Best in the first. I understand upside, but it's just reality.

 
Adrian Peterson and Chris Wells due to likelihood of not recovering from injuries satisfactorily. Are being drafted too high in my opinion.

 
Marshawn Lynch and Maurice Jones-Drew. Lynch will go back to his average ways and Maurice Jones-Drew will finally wear down.

 
1) Jordy Nelson- The Packers spread the ball around to much and now he isn't just some no name running around. Packers WR's are a crap shoot to see who has the big numbers. Sorry for stealing your guy.

2) Trent Richardson- In keeper leagues he's worth the high pick but not for this season. He's got a very tough schedule and is the only treat on the Browns offense. Don't think he'll be big bust but I've seen him as high as RB5.

3) Michael Vick - In the ESPN mock draft he was QB6. A 32 year old, scrambling QB coming off of an unimpressive season. I'll pass.

 
Maybe not a bust considering his value has declined, but I think Peyton Manning is going to disappoint.

Several folks think that he's basically going to replicate his numbers from Indy, but beyond his injury recovery, he's got a much less proven receving corps, and a run-oriented coach that may not have him air it out as much as he did with the Colts.

I see him having a decent statistical season, but barely top 10.

 
Michael Turner - He is getting older and losing some speed in the first place but this new offense is going to be based more on the big play ability of Julio Jones and Roddy White. With only needing to spend a 2nd round pick on him I would pass

 
Predicting injuries is not something I am going to do in here. I like the Wallace suggestion and Jordy. I'll give one at each position. Not sure what the definition of a bust is, but these guys will fail to live up to their draft slots.

QB - Cam Newton. I think he finishes in the Top 15 but not in the top 10. I don't see how he replicates those rushing numbers. Maybe not a bust but certainly going to disappoint.

RB - Matt Forte - Missing the offseason, and they didn't add Bush to hold a clipboard. Offense is changing.

WR - Vincent Jackson - He's always been a one-dimensional guy. He's big and fast but I'm not sure this team is going to air the ball out much.

TE - Dustin Keller - this whole team is going to be a train wreck in slow motion.

 
I'm with Sabertooth--two of the OP's choices are based on fairly non-existent injury history. Mathews played 14 games last year and averaged 4.9 ypc. Steven Jackson has played 15, 16, and 15 games the last three years.

I think Cam Newton will underperform his ADP. Might finish more like QB10 than QB4, which wouldn't be disastrous but would be a pretty big bust since he's going in the 2nd round. QB rushing TDs are one of the most volatile and least predictable stats in the game; I would not be at all surprised if he only ran for, say, 6 this season.

I'm not buying CJ2K at RB5, either. He looked almost like he didn't care about football last year. I wouldn't take him until about RB10, and can see him finishing closer to RB20.

 
'SproutDaddy said:
'bonesman said:
Megatron. Gonna be drafted top 5 and has the curse working against him.
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Only way he isn't a stud this year is injury. There's no way he can bust.
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How do you think those Madden curses usually happen? Yeah, injury! :)2010: Polamalu - Injured.2007: Alexander - Injured.2006: McNabb - Injured.2004: Vick - Injured.2003: Faulk - Injured.2002: Culpepper - Injured.2000: Sanders - Retired. 1999: Hearst - Injured.
 
'We Tigers said:
I think Cam Newton will underperform his ADP. Might finish more like QB10 than QB4, which wouldn't be disastrous but would be a pretty big bust since he's going in the 2nd round. QB rushing TDs are one of the most volatile and least predictable stats in the game; I would not be at all surprised if he only ran for, say, 6 this season.
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A few people now have mentioned Newton based on his rushing stats.While it is indeed difficult to envision Cam having that many rushing TDs again, I think people are overlooking his ability as a passer, and how he could very well take a giant leap forward after having no offseason last year.
 
'Badgers Fan said:
Here are my top 3:1. Ryan Mathews- great talent and opportunity, but he has never stayed healthy, even in college. He should do great on a per game basis, but 350 touches isn't going to be possible for this guy. I think he misses 3+ games and is limited in a couple others. This years version of Darren McFadden last year. 2. Steven Jackson- The breakdown is coming. He is my favorite player in the NFL, but I think he starts his decline this year. His 3.9 2nd half ypc might be an indicator of decline. He already has a lack of td's and a history of injuries.3. Jordy Nelson- I don't think he'll have a terrible season. I think he'll finish around 65/1050/8. Those 15 td's and 18.6 ypc won't be repeated, I'd bet everything I own on that. While I don't think he'll be a super bust, he's being drafted as a borderline wr1. I think he's a mid-tier wr2 at best (personally I currently have him ranked 22nd). I look at the guys behind him and I think that in "expert" leagues he probably goes lower than his ADP of wr12, 38th overall. Who are your busts?
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What if that "frail" player ended up 7th overall at the rb position?
 
Due to possible holdout issues, could be any of:

Ray Rice

MJD

Forte

Mike Wallace

Dwayne Bowe

etc...

Just look at Chris Johnson after his holdout off-season...could the same thing happen with any of those other top 10 (top-3 in Rice's Case) backs up top?

 
By position:

QB: Cam Newton - Not a bust as a player overall, but has no chance justifying his current ADP.

RB: MJD - I don't like where this hold out is going at all (kinda reminds me of Chris Johnson last year)

WR: Andre Johnson - 20 games and 10 TDs over the past two seasons. Never had a double-digit TD season. Typically 3rd receiver off the board

TE: Kellen Winslow - I know he is dropping some anyways, but I almost think he and Zach Miller are literally undraftable in a 12 teamer where people typically draft 2 TEs. Miller had 25 receptions last year with Carlson out. Unless something changes drastically, I don't see how splitting those receptions makes either one an option. You could double those and still, neither would be worth a pick.

 
'We Tigers said:
I'm with Sabertooth--two of the OP's choices are based on fairly non-existent injury history. Mathews played 14 games last year and averaged 4.9 ypc. Steven Jackson has played 15, 16, and 15 games the last three years.

I think Cam Newton will underperform his ADP. Might finish more like QB10 than QB4, which wouldn't be disastrous but would be a pretty big bust since he's going in the 2nd round. QB rushing TDs are one of the most volatile and least predictable stats in the game; I would not be at all surprised if he only ran for, say, 6 this season.



I'm not buying CJ2K at RB5, either. He looked almost like he didn't care about football last year. I wouldn't take him until about RB10, and can see him finishing closer to RB20.
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I wouldn't touch CJ2K in the top 12 backs either. He's a quitter. Liable to quit at any point when he hits adversity.
 
'steelcityman said:
So have we decided who the one player in the league is that is safe to draft? Rodgers?
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Not really, because we are attempting to predict injuries so nobody is safe at that price. The player that I know won't bust is Kordell Stewart, not at the price you can get him at. Don't believe the retirement talk.
 
'gandalas said:
How do you think those Madden curses usually happen? Yeah, injury! :)2010: Polamalu - Injured.2007: Alexander - Injured.2006: McNabb - Injured.2004: Vick - Injured.2003: Faulk - Injured.2002: Culpepper - Injured.2000: Sanders - Retired. 1999: Hearst - Injured.
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I notice some fairly large gaps between 2007 and today. Also notice the ages of those recent guys when they won the "award" - Alexander was 30, McNabb was 30 as well, Troy was 29, and Faulk was 30. Calvin is 26....and not a RB.
 
'matttyl said:
'gandalas said:
How do you think those Madden curses usually happen? Yeah, injury! :)2010: Polamalu - Injured.2007: Alexander - Injured.2006: McNabb - Injured.2004: Vick - Injured.2003: Faulk - Injured.2002: Culpepper - Injured.2000: Sanders - Retired. 1999: Hearst - Injured.
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I notice some fairly large gaps between 2007 and today. Also notice the ages of those recent guys when they won the "award" - Alexander was 30, McNabb was 30 as well, Troy was 29, and Faulk was 30. Calvin is 26....and not a RB.
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You could include Hillis last year as injury-related as well, although his season was just a Cluster-F. I really don't subscribe to the "Madden-Curse" myself, but just showing that the statement "Barring Injury" is rather moronic when the reason most players bust is pretty much...injury. :)
 
'Sabertooth said:
Not really, because we are attempting to predict injuries so nobody is safe at that price. The player that I know won't bust is Kordell Stewart, not at the price you can get him at. Don't believe the retirement talk.
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Does injury equal bust? Was Peterson or Forte a "bust" last year cause they didn't finish the season, or was Foster one because he didn't start it? I view a bust as someone who played 90% of his games or more, and vastly underperformed expectations, like Chris Johnson or Mendenhall last year. If that's your view of a "bust", then I submit MJD, Wallace, Murray...and dare I say it....Brees.
 
'matttyl said:
'Sabertooth said:
Not really, because we are attempting to predict injuries so nobody is safe at that price. The player that I know won't bust is Kordell Stewart, not at the price you can get him at. Don't believe the retirement talk.
Click to expand...
Does injury equal bust? Was Peterson or Forte a "bust" last year cause they didn't finish the season, or was Foster one because he didn't start it? I view a bust as someone who played 90% of his games or more, and vastly underperformed expectations, like Chris Johnson or Mendenhall last year. If that's your view of a "bust", then I submit MJD, Wallace, Murray...and dare I say it....Brees.
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Assuming you are trying to win your league a player is a huge bust if they don't finish the season. Last time I checked regular season trophies are not what most are after.
 
'ImTheScientist said:
Assuming you are trying to win your league a player is a huge bust if they don't finish the season. Last time I checked regular season trophies are not what most are after.
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Hey, you're talking to a guy who literally went 13-0 in the regular season and then lost my first playoff game when I was 2nd most in points that week (obviously playing the guy who scored the most).Anyway, I had Fred Jackson on my team last year. I know no one would have taken him in the first last year, and likely not in the 2nd or 3rd either, but when he got hurt I certainly didn't consider him a "bust", it was what it was and I should have had a backup plan for that - and I did with Spiller. Even if I had taken F Jax in the 2nd last year, I wouldn't have considered him a bust because when he did go down I should have had a team with a decent "plan B", which I did.Another owner in the league had Chris Johnson last year. I definitely considered him a bust as the owner continued to start him each and every week as he took CJ2K in the 1st and couldn't bear to not have him in the starting lineup.He lost games last year cause Chris Johnson wasn't scoring what was expected. I didn't lose (regular season) games when F Jax went down as he obviously was no longer in my starting lineup, he was on my bench and someone else took his spot.Now I did have a "bust" on my team - Mark Ingram, who I took with the #1 overall rookie pick after trading quite a lot to get him. Luckily I had enough other RBs on my roster that Ingram only saw my starting lineup one time - but after taking him with the 1st overall rookie pick, I expected far more than what I got and it was the little nagging injuries that at least last year I thought he could play through.
 
Brees a bust ? lol. closing your eyes and throwing darts or just repeating that year after year until you can finally say you were right? What happened to the Madden curse/Brees last year?...What reasoning could you possibly have to make a prediction like that? hold out? lol. the guy is as dedicated to his craft as anyone on the planet, he does more in his downtime to be prepared to play football as most players do in training camp. That's rediculous.

Hold on... let me get my ennie meanie minie moe bust predictor decoder ring out.... Says... Ray Rice, Fitzgerald and Gronk will be busts this year.... You heard it here first. lol.

 
Brees a bust ? lol. closing your eyes and throwing darts or just repeating that year after year until you can finally say you were right? What reasoning could you possibly have to make a prediction like that? hold out? lol. the guy is as dedicated to his craft as anyone on the planet, he does more in his downtime to be prepared to play football as most players do in training camp. That's rediculous.

Hold on... let me get my ennie meanie minie moe bust predictor decoder ring out.... Says... Ray Rice, Fitzgerald and Gronk will be busts this year.... You heard it here first. lol.

 
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'Blackjacks said:
Michael Turner - He is getting older and losing some speed in the first place but this new offense is going to be based more on the big play ability of Julio Jones and Roddy White. With only needing to spend a 2nd round pick on him I would pass
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I'm not trying to be a Michael Turner proponent, but I'm seeing a lot of questionable logic applied to his situation. The guy is going at the end of the 3rd round (ADP35, RB17). He finished RB6 last year. I expect a dip in production, too, but he could see a significant dip and still finish above RB17. I don't play PPR but he's going ADP41, RB19 in there. So I don't think he's actually a very good bust candidate.
 
'matttyl said:
'Sabertooth said:
Not really, because we are attempting to predict injuries so nobody is safe at that price. The player that I know won't bust is Kordell Stewart, not at the price you can get him at. Don't believe the retirement talk.
Click to expand...
Does injury equal bust? Was Peterson or Forte a "bust" last year cause they didn't finish the season, or was Foster one because he didn't start it? I view a bust as someone who played 90% of his games or more, and vastly underperformed expectations, like Chris Johnson or Mendenhall last year. If that's your view of a "bust", then I submit MJD, Wallace, Murray...and dare I say it....Brees.
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My view of a bust is Chris Johnson last year. Plays but just doesn't perform. I do not predict injuries...way too iffy. I do think ADP's stats will suffer though because of this existing injury and am uncomfortable with him as my RB1 heading into the season. I wouldn't select him in the first. DMC seems recovered.
 
I'm picking Demarco Murray. Did well in a small sample size last year, but I was not impressed with his last two years at OU, so I'm going with the larger sample size as the true indicator of performance.

I really don't like MJD as the 6th overall pick, CJ2K as the 8th, or DMC at 11th. The offense won't be going through Forte this year, either, so I think all four of those RBs will finish below their ADP. But when picking just one guy, I'm going with Murray.

 
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