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Bills (4-0) @ Cardinals (2-2) (1 Viewer)

Well it actually means the Bills are "favored". the home team typically is -3 on an "even" line just for being at home.

Remember, it's a BETTING line.

 
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That is hard to understand. I know that Buffalo didn't exactly blow out St. Louis early. But they did what they had to do and won the game on the road.

Then the Cardinal get absolutely destroyed by the Jets.

I would guess that line changes before the week is out. There should be enough money going on the Bills that they will have to change it.

 
Are they taking into consideration Boldins injury? Could the line change? Is now the time to jump on it?

Cause I think the Bills win this one by at least 10.

 
The Man with the Plan said:
Brett Favre don't play for the Bills.
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:goodposting: That and the fact that the Cardinals are not nearly as disfunctional as the Rams.It's safe to say avoiding turnovers will be focused on in Cardinals practice this week. Having said that, the line reflects the relative potency of the respective offenses. If the Bills get to 5-0, they shoud be regarded as a playoff favorite in the AFC along with Tennessee.
 
Flying across country is a major factor I am sure. Teams that travel that far don't tend to fare well, and assuming that "the average road" team tends to get about 3 points, that probably shifted the line by 4 or 5 points, which suggests that on a neutral field Buffalo would be favored by 5.5 to 6.5 points, which seems right.

 
basing NFL handicapping mostly on what happened the prior week is the classic, most rudimentary error players make. Cards -1 is a solid line here.

 
Starting to think that 8 wins is going to win the NFC West with some breathing room.

This ones for Yudkin in particular.. everyone who drafted Warner knew about the turnovers and the potential for getting injured. But this was in exchange for 30+ TDs and all at a very cheap price.

For the first month of the season I stood by the fact that there is no way they will bench him during the season for the following reasons. 1. Matt Leinart looked awful in the preseason. 2. As i stated above, they should be in the division race until the very end, given that as I said above no one is going to run away with this thing.

How likely is a benching of Warner? I still say it doesnt happen, but if they lose the next 2 home games to good teams in Buff and Dal, would they consider making a move during the Week 7 bye week?

 
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fo shizzle said:
Starting to think that 8 wins is going to win the NFC West with some breathing room.

This ones for Yudkin in particular.. everyone who drafted Warner knew about the turnovers and the potential for getting injured. But this was in exchange for 30+ TDs and all at a very cheap price.

For the first month of the season I stood by the fact that there is no way they will bench him during the season for the following reasons. 1. Matt Leinart looked awful in the preseason. 2. As i stated above, they should be in the division race until the very end, given that as I said above no one is going to run away with this thing.

How likely is a benching of Warner? I still say it doesnt happen, but if they lose the next 2 home games to good teams in Buff and Dal, would they consider making a move during the Week 7 bye week?
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Why is this for me? I pimped Warner all off season and had him ranked in the Top 5 when he was still pegged as a backup to Leinart.
 
Plus the Bills will be playing their 2nd straight road game and the Cards are coming home after playing back-to-back games on the East Coast. AZ is traditionally a tough place for east coast teams to play.

 
An east coast team is flying over to Arizona to play a team that is 7-2 at home in their last 9 home games.

I dont really see a problem with the Cards being a -1.5 favourite. Having said that, i won't touch this game with a 10 foot pole.

 
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David Yudkin said:
fo shizzle said:
Starting to think that 8 wins is going to win the NFC West with some breathing room.

This ones for Yudkin in particular.. everyone who drafted Warner knew about the turnovers and the potential for getting injured. But this was in exchange for 30+ TDs and all at a very cheap price.

For the first month of the season I stood by the fact that there is no way they will bench him during the season for the following reasons. 1. Matt Leinart looked awful in the preseason. 2. As i stated above, they should be in the division race until the very end, given that as I said above no one is going to run away with this thing.

How likely is a benching of Warner? I still say it doesnt happen, but if they lose the next 2 home games to good teams in Buff and Dal, would they consider making a move during the Week 7 bye week?
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Why is this for me? I pimped Warner all off season and had him ranked in the Top 5 when he was still pegged as a backup to Leinart.
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Dont be so defensive, David. ;) The fact that you were pimping him tells me you've followed him and may in fact have him on a team or 2. So I was looking for your positive thoughts on the subject, not the other way around.
 
Cards are unpredictable and that's why I stay away from betting their games. Two weeks ago they crushed Miami at home -- the same Miami team that crushed NE the following week and gave the Jets a game in week 1. Even though the Cards laid an egg v the Jets, I think they play much better at home so don't be surprised if they put together another game like they did v Miami. Buffalo had issues with a hapless St Louis team for a half and squeaked out a win the prior week v Oakland so they are certainly vulnerable this weekend at Ariz.

 
I will definitely pick Arizona next week. So I guess a partial answer to why the line is Arizona -1.5 is because their are idiots like myself who would actually dare take a 2-2 team that just gave up 56 points over an undefeated team.

Keep in mind this Arizona team just played back to back games on the East Coast and hadn't been home in over a week, not returning to Arizona in between games. I suspect that had some effect on their performance, though I certainly can't prove it.

They exhibited one of the strongest home road splits last year, and I had discussed the possibility of this here when talking about teams in new stadiums and the effect on home field advantage. I think the two primary factors in HFA in the NFL are actually (1) climate differences between what the home team is used to and the home field; and (2) familiarity of the road team with the home team's venue. The home winning percentage is lowest in divisional games (and virtually non-existent in divisional games between rivals from similar climates) and highest in AFC vs NFC matchups, where the teams rarely play in the opposing venue.

Here, we have an outdoor Northeastern team travelling to Phoenix, Arizona, to a place they have never played before. Last year, two eventual 10 win teams from the AFC, Pittsburgh and Cleveland also traveled to play in the new stadium for the first time, and both lost as favorites. In fact, I'm pretty sure Pittsburgh was 4-0 at the time as well.

 
David Yudkin said:
Arizona - 1.5 points? Are the Cardinals worthy of being a favorite after just allowing 56 points?
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Using that logic, couldn't someone question why the Patriots are favored over anyone (even SF) in their first game after losing by 25 at home to the Dolphins?
 
According to the Sagarin ratings, the Bills are the 9th best team and the Cardinals are the 14th best team. The Bills are given a rating of 24.3 and the Cards a rating of 23.2. Given what JKL said about home field, this means the Cards should probably be about a three point favorite. But since Boldin is almost certainly not going to play, that pushes the line down.

Nothing surprising at all here.

 
Chase Stuart said:
But since Boldin is almost certainly not going to play, that pushes the line down.
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It would be surprisingly crazy to see him play, but any and all tests have been negative thus far. He's a tough SOB.ETA:Anquan Boldin - WR - Cardinals Coach Ken Whisenhunt said Monday that's Anquan Boldin (head) is "up in the air" for Week 5, but wouldn't rule out him facing Buffalo. Whisenhunt confirmed that Boldin was not seriously injured despite taking a helmet-to-helmet shot from Eric Smith Sunday. Boldin was knocked out cold, but Whisenhunt somehow couldn't say for sure if he was concussed. Boldin will be "re-evaluated" this week and shouldn't be written off totally for Week 5. Sep. 29 - 3:25 p.m. ET
 
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Buffalo is a better team than Arizona, but yeah I could easily see us dropping this game. That line doesn't look especially out of whack to me.

 
Vegas lines also tend to have a slight bias towards regional teams because the fan base in Nevada (LA Lakers, AZ Cardinals, etc) tend to drive the line that way...

 
Gosh, I hope you are all wrong...I can see myself jumping on the points, homer or not. The Bills have not put toeghter 4 solid quarters of football since week#1, and I truly don't think we will be able to gauge this team until week #7, at home vs. the Chargers. With that being said, I watched the Jets game yesterday, and the Cards looked absolutely terrible after "resting" of the right coast for a week. I would not be totally be surpised if the Bills lost, but I like us getting the points.

 
Buffalo has o-line problems as well and Mcgee may be out so Fitzgerald could have a field day. Our DE's haven't gotten alot of pressure of late so, maybe Warner will be able to hold on to the ball.

 
aburt19 said:
That is hard to understand. I know that Buffalo didn't exactly blow out St. Louis early. But they did what they had to do and won the game on the road.

Then the Cardinal get absolutely destroyed by the Jets.

I would guess that line changes before the week is out. There should be enough money going on the Bills that they will have to change it.
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:football: The line actually opened at Buffalo -1 and has moved all the way to Ari -1.5 at some places(although I still see it as low as pickem at some places too).

 
Assani Fisher said:
aburt19 said:
That is hard to understand. I know that Buffalo didn't exactly blow out St. Louis early. But they did what they had to do and won the game on the road.

Then the Cardinal get absolutely destroyed by the Jets.

I would guess that line changes before the week is out. There should be enough money going on the Bills that they will have to change it.
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:excited: The line actually opened at Buffalo -1 and has moved all the way to Ari -1.5 at some places(although I still see it as low as pickem at some places too).
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Beat me to posting that point.
 
Two biggest factors (pretty much covered somewhat above) in this line:

1. AZ plays much better at home.

2. Buffalo has been drastically inconsistent from quarter-to-quarter and Vegas hedges that this will be eventually catch up to them.

This has been, what, three weeks in a row that the Bills had to rally from behind late in the second half, with the two latest games being vs. inferior competition? Frankly, the Bills aren't that far from being a 2-2 ball club, and had they not been playing the Rams last week, 1-3.

I think they are a good team, but dominant they are not. I like the home team here for a Cards squad that is not nearly as bad as they looked last weekend.

 
tombonneau said:
Two biggest factors (pretty much covered somewhat above) in this line:

1. AZ plays much better at home.

2. Buffalo has been drastically inconsistent from quarter-to-quarter and Vegas hedges that this will be eventually catch up to them.

This has been, what, three weeks in a row that the Bills had to rally from behind late in the second half, with the two latest games being vs. inferior competition? Frankly, the Bills aren't that far from being a 2-2 ball club, and had they not been playing the Rams last week, 1-3.

I think they are a good team, but dominant they are not. I like the home team here for a Cards squad that is not nearly as bad as they looked last weekend.
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:goodposting: I like the Bills, but this line is fishy - public will pound the Bills I assume. Back to back road games is tough, especially considering they have to travel across the country.

 
Johnny Utah #9 said:
It's a trap!

http://shadowmage.plinkomedia.com/images/A...Ackbar-trap.jpg
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You mean:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _________

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David Yudkin said:
Arizona - 1.5 points? Are the Cardinals worthy of being a favorite after just allowing 56 points?
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TRAP game...they're daring you to take the Bills...you're probably saying 'wow, bills + 1.5, how can that be?!?!'and watch Az beat them by 10.Who have the Bills played thus, far:Seahawks - a different team in week 1 than they are today.JaxOaklandSt Louis..Az can score on anyone..Buffalo's defense is overrated, ranked 16th in total defense, 20th against the run, 12th against the pass..Az ranks 5th overall in total defense..25th against the run, 4th against the pass..something has to give...I doubt Trent Edwards is for real, and I doubt Buffalo will beat Az this weekend..they can't keep up with a high-octane Az offense , esp @ home..
 
I don't get why everyone is calling this a trap game. There's nothing tricky going on here. Arizona and Buffalo are pretty even. Arizona is at home, which is far away from Buffalo. Arizona doesn't have its stud WR. Therefore, Arizona is a 1.5 point favorite. That computes pretty easily.

Vegas isn't daring anyone to bet on anything. If Vegas thought Arizona would win by a lot, they'd probably set the line a lot higher. And the betting public isn't going to hammer the Bills. People who place their money on football games do a whole lot more than just look at the team records and move on from there. This is some of the most basic analysis that exists for a spread for a game.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

In case anyone hadn't noticed (and all the gamblers *have* noticed), Buffalo has played the easiest schedule in the league while the Cardinals have played one of the hardest.

 
Tanner9919 said:
I doubt Trent Edwards is for real
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I am picking the Bills to lose this weekend for other reasons, but you are WAAY off on this one. This is not a Derek Andersen situation. Edwards came into the season as the Bills #1 QB. Everyone in the league knew it and had ample time to prepare for him, with ample film from last season to work off of. In the last three games he has engineered 4th quarter comebacks, two on the road and one from 9 points down late. You don't do that as an extremely young QB unless you have "IT"
 
Chase Stuart said:
I don't get why everyone is calling this a trap game. There's nothing tricky going on here. Arizona and Buffalo are pretty even. Arizona is at home, which is far away from Buffalo. Arizona doesn't have its stud WR. Therefore, Arizona is a 1.5 point favorite. That computes pretty easily.

Vegas isn't daring anyone to bet on anything. If Vegas thought Arizona would win by a lot, they'd probably set the line a lot higher. And the betting public isn't going to hammer the Bills. People who place their money on football games do a whole lot more than just look at the team records and move on from there. This is some of the most basic analysis that exists for a spread for a game.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

In case anyone hadn't noticed (and all the gamblers *have* noticed), Buffalo has played the easiest schedule in the league while the Cardinals have played one of the hardest.
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:rolleyes: In addition, the blowout at the hands of the Jets was for the most part attributable to the turnover differential. Gamblers and other stat geeks (Football Outsiders, most prominently) know that turnover differential is far less predictable than casual fans seem to think. Take away turnovers and penalties, and you find that the Cardinals actually outplayed the Jets by a good margin. Sure, some of that is because of the Jets' soft defense in the second half, but from a a gambling persective, that game has a giant "IGNORE" sign on it.

 
The Duff Man said:
Tanner9919 said:
I doubt Trent Edwards is for real
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I am picking the Bills to lose this weekend for other reasons, but you are WAAY off on this one. This is not a Derek Andersen situation. Edwards came into the season as the Bills #1 QB. Everyone in the league knew it and had ample time to prepare for him, with ample film from last season to work off of. In the last three games he has engineered 4th quarter comebacks, two on the road and one from 9 points down late. You don't do that as an extremely young QB unless you have "IT"
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Trent Edwards definitely has "IT", but I expect him to lose "IT" pretty soon.
 
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