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Blind bidding (1 Viewer)

rockalum

Footballguy
What strategy do you try to use? With $100 available, I like to not overpay for anyone and try to make sure I have a good portion left at the end of the season in case I'm in a playoff run or in the playoffs.

What tact do you take?

I was shocked when Sammy Morris went for $89 in my league tonight.

 
What strategy do you try to use? With $100 available, I like to not overpay for anyone and try to make sure I have a good portion left at the end of the season in case I'm in a playoff run or in the playoffs.

What tact do you take?

I was shocked when Sammy Morris went for $89 in my league tonight.
... and who exactly is going to be sitting on your waiver wire at the end of the season that is worth picking up that you're hording your money to grab?
 
agreed. Spend your money if situations arise. I spent 58% of my dollars on matt cassell. Start 2 qb league 12 teamer.

 
What strategy do you try to use? With $100 available, I like to not overpay for anyone and try to make sure I have a good portion left at the end of the season in case I'm in a playoff run or in the playoffs.What tact do you take? I was shocked when Sammy Morris went for $89 in my league tonight.
I used to think the same as you, but if you think about, someone should go big every week. Using a 12 team league as an example, everyone could have a turn bidding $89 on a player they want.
 
What strategy do you try to use? With $100 available, I like to not overpay for anyone and try to make sure I have a good portion left at the end of the season in case I'm in a playoff run or in the playoffs.

What tact do you take?

I was shocked when Sammy Morris went for $89 in my league tonight.
... and who exactly is going to be sitting on your waiver wire at the end of the season that is worth picking up that you're hording your money to grab?
Depends on the leauge size. Just last year (in my 10-team league), Kurt Warner, Aaron Stecker, Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson & Kolby Smith all affected our fantasy playoffs, and all of them ended up going for peanuts late in the season because everyone had blown their FAAB on the likes of Chris Brown, Ronald Curry, DeShawn Wynn, Jesse Chatman, etc early in the year...Looks like everyone learned a lesson, because Cassel went for $28 this year (to the Brady owner).

 
I used to be conservative but eventually realized that the majority of impact players that come off waivers are claimed in the 1st or 2nd week. Kurt Warner is probably the biggest in memory (I'm talkling about the year he came in to replace injured Trent Green and threw 40+ TDs), Marques Colston is one more recent.

Now, I appropriate 80% or more of my funds to spend in the first week. I'm hoping to get Morris and Royal this year.

 
What strategy do you try to use? With $100 available, I like to not overpay for anyone and try to make sure I have a good portion left at the end of the season in case I'm in a playoff run or in the playoffs.

What tact do you take?

I was shocked when Sammy Morris went for $89 in my league tonight.
... and who exactly is going to be sitting on your waiver wire at the end of the season that is worth picking up that you're hording your money to grab?
Depends on the leauge size. Just last year (in my 10-team league), Kurt Warner, Aaron Stecker, Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson & Kolby Smith all affected our fantasy playoffs, and all of them ended up going for peanuts late in the season because everyone had blown their FAAB on the likes of Chris Brown, Ronald Curry, DeShawn Wynn, Jesse Chatman, etc early in the year...

Looks like everyone learned a lesson, because Cassel went for $28 this year (to the Brady owner).
Did everyone also learn their lesson when they passed or bid on Boldin or Colston?Sure it happens. You can strike gold late in the year. Once year I won with the help of Amos Zereoue who I picked up in about week 13 or 14. However, I'd be willing to bet that more of the quality pick ups come earlier in the year as we see who's gold and who's fool's gold.

Also, if you keep a tight grip on your wallet hoping to do better you could easily be stuck with nothing. I'd rather take a shot at a guy who can help me all year then hope that something better might come alone.

 
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not to mention the first week is the best time to get a good player...
So who's feeling good about spending a large portion of their FAAB on Cassel, Morris, or mystery TE this morning? I believe Boldin is the exception, not the rule...how many players go nuts in week 1 and are never heard from again? Last year it was Chris Brown and Ronald Curry.Kurt Warner (99) threw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs in week 1; Cassell played game-manager against a crummy Dolphins squad.Colston is another outlier...if you spent 80% of your budget on him in the first 3 weeks of 2006, you're either psychic or lucky...Bernard Berrian had nearly identical stats through 6-7 games (before Grossman imploded). For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.I'm not saying you pass on a player if he fills a true need....I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
 
That being said...

How much is Sproles worth? Even if LT can go, he has shown flashes of what he can do in certain situations. Isn't it possible that Sproles is worth more than Morris from this point forward?

And isn't it possible that O'Sullivan is worth more than Cassel from this point forward?

What about John Carlson, who was on the fringe of the week 1 TE discussion, but now seems to have the best situation? Fasano, Martin, Royal, Scaife, McMichael and LJ Smith COMBINED for 14 points (in my PPR league). Carlson had 13. Again, he appears to be a much wiser purchase if nobody went for him last week. And those who did, probably got him for less than the others listed above.

 
I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
If you haven't been playing this game for long, it may be a small sample size to you. But after 15+ years playing in a couple of leagues that use blind bidding, my experience is that the Week 1-2 pickups generally have much more impact than those made in late season. All too often I see conservative owners sitting on a pile of waiver money with not much to spend it on, at the end of the year. Not only is getting a productive player more rare late in the season, but when you win a late season guy, you have far fewer weeks in which to get production from him. You also have to consider the trade value of an early season gem vs a late season gem.
For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.
Funny how you give two examples in the first clause, and only one in the second.
 
not to mention the first week is the best time to get a good player...
So who's feeling good about spending a large portion of their FAAB on Cassel, Morris, or mystery TE this morning? I believe Boldin is the exception, not the rule...how many players go nuts in week 1 and are never heard from again? Last year it was Chris Brown and Ronald Curry.

Kurt Warner (99) threw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs in week 1; Cassell played game-manager against a crummy Dolphins squad.

Colston is another outlier...if you spent 80% of your budget on him in the first 3 weeks of 2006, you're either psychic or lucky...Bernard Berrian had nearly identical stats through 6-7 games (before Grossman imploded).

For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.

I'm not saying you pass on a player if he fills a true need....I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
Not a gambler are you?I spent about 70% of my bidding cap on Perry and Cassel and feel great about it. Sure, I'd like them both to be playing like studs but I like my chances with those guys being the top performers at their position off the wire in my league at the end of the year.

Basically, I'd rather push my chips into the center of the table and try for a player who I feel could do well then wait and wait and wait and hope that someone else gets hurt later in the year and try to grab his backup.

 
I spent ~60% of my budget on Eddie Royal last week, and I'm still satisfied with the decision.

I believe Boldin is the exception, not the rule...how many players go nuts in week 1 and are never heard from again? Last year it was Chris Brown and Ronald Curry.

...

For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.
I disagree with this. I have no idea if someone wants to try and back this up with stats or anything, but in my experience it just seems much less likely for a fantasy free agent to suddenly blow up in the middle of the season (and then maintain a high level of performance). Which is why I don't really advocate "saving" your blind bidding bucks for later in the season. I used to do this but it never paid any dividends. The odds that a game-changing stud is going to appear on the waiver wire after week 8 are very slim, IMO.

When a guy like Boldin, or Colston, or Eddie Royal or DeShaun Jackson breaks out early in the year, you get him.

 
I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
If you haven't been playing this game for long, it may be a small sample size to you. But after 15+ years playing in a couple of leagues that use blind bidding, my experience is that the Week 1-2 pickups generally have much more impact than those made in late season. All too often I see conservative owners sitting on a pile of waiver money with not much to spend it on, at the end of the year. Not only is getting a productive player more rare late in the season, but when you win a late season guy, you have far fewer weeks in which to get production from him. You also have to consider the trade value of an early season gem vs a late season gem.
For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.
Funny how you give two examples in the first clause, and only one in the second.
I've been playing for 10 years. My experience is that owners spend an INAPPROPRIATE amount of money early on guys who don't produce much the rest of the season. Fine, here's a few more:Maurice Jones-Drew, Week 3 of 2005. He had 4 carries for 12 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards the first 2 weeks combined. Earnest Graham, Week 3 of last year. Injuries gave him the opportunity, and he wasn't even the Cadillac handcuff to start the season.Kurt Warner, Week 3 of last year. 27 TDs in 14 games....zero snaps taken in weeks 1 and 2. Larry Johnson, Week 12 of 2004. Priest had an injury-free 2003 and LJ mostly played spot duty. He didn't get into a game until week 8, and when Priest did get hurt, Derrick Blaylock was the guy for 2 weeks. All LJ did was rack up 781 total yards and 12 TDs in the final 6 weeks. Tony Romo, 2006...replaced Drew Bledsoe mid-game in week 7. Got his first start in week 8. Totaled 2900 yards and 19 TD is basically 10.5 weeks. There's plenty more, those just came easy...
 
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not to mention the first week is the best time to get a good player...
So who's feeling good about spending a large portion of their FAAB on Cassel, Morris, or mystery TE this morning? I believe Boldin is the exception, not the rule...how many players go nuts in week 1 and are never heard from again? Last year it was Chris Brown and Ronald Curry.

Kurt Warner (99) threw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs in week 1; Cassell played game-manager against a crummy Dolphins squad.

Colston is another outlier...if you spent 80% of your budget on him in the first 3 weeks of 2006, you're either psychic or lucky...Bernard Berrian had nearly identical stats through 6-7 games (before Grossman imploded).

For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.

I'm not saying you pass on a player if he fills a true need....I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
Not a gambler are you?I spent about 70% of my bidding cap on Perry and Cassel and feel great about it. Sure, I'd like them both to be playing like studs but I like my chances with those guys being the top performers at their position off the wire in my league at the end of the year.

Basically, I'd rather push my chips into the center of the table and try for a player who I feel could do well then wait and wait and wait and hope that someone else gets hurt later in the year and try to grab his backup.
Maybe my league is just weak. As in poker, there's no sense in making wild, aggressive moves if the situation doesn't require it. I got Perry for a $3 claim in the preseason (our auction was 8/16).
 
I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
If you haven't been playing this game for long, it may be a small sample size to you. But after 15+ years playing in a couple of leagues that use blind bidding, my experience is that the Week 1-2 pickups generally have much more impact than those made in late season. All too often I see conservative owners sitting on a pile of waiver money with not much to spend it on, at the end of the year. Not only is getting a productive player more rare late in the season, but when you win a late season guy, you have far fewer weeks in which to get production from him. You also have to consider the trade value of an early season gem vs a late season gem.
For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.
Funny how you give two examples in the first clause, and only one in the second.
I've been playing for 10 years. My experience is that owners spend an INAPPROPRIATE amount of money early on guys who don't produce much the rest of the season. Fine, here's a few more:Maurice Jones-Drew, Week 3 of 2005. He had 4 carries for 12 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards the first 2 weeks combined. Earnest Graham, Week 3 of last year. Injuries gave him the opportunity, and he wasn't even the Cadillac handcuff to start the season.Kurt Warner, Week 3 of last year. 27 TDs in 14 games....zero snaps taken in weeks 1 and 2. Larry Johnson, Week 12 of 2004. Priest had an injury-free 2003 and LJ mostly played spot duty. He didn't get into a game until week 8, and when Priest did get hurt, Derrick Blaylock was the guy for 2 weeks. All LJ did was rack up 781 total yards and 12 TDs in the final 6 weeks. Tony Romo, 2006...replaced Drew Bledsoe mid-game in week 7. Got his first start in week 8. Totaled 2900 yards and 19 TD is basically 10.5 weeks. There's plenty more, those just came easy...
If Larry Johnson was ever on your waiver wire then maybe our leagues are too different to find a common ground.Sure there are other examples of late season gems, but again, there are plenty more that come from Week 1-2. I honestly don't have time to go back to find every example for you. Guys get overlooked in the draft, it happens every year. And you are still missing the point that an Eddie Royal now can net you great value in a trade, whereas a Kolby Smith pickup in Week 11 will not.
 
Fine, here's a few more:Maurice Jones-Drew, Week 3 of 2005. He had 4 carries for 12 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards the first 2 weeks combined. Earnest Graham, Week 3 of last year. Injuries gave him the opportunity, and he wasn't even the Cadillac handcuff to start the season.Kurt Warner, Week 3 of last year. 27 TDs in 14 games....zero snaps taken in weeks 1 and 2. Larry Johnson, Week 12 of 2004. Priest had an injury-free 2003 and LJ mostly played spot duty. He didn't get into a game until week 8, and when Priest did get hurt, Derrick Blaylock was the guy for 2 weeks. All LJ did was rack up 781 total yards and 12 TDs in the final 6 weeks. Tony Romo, 2006...replaced Drew Bledsoe mid-game in week 7. Got his first start in week 8. Totaled 2900 yards and 19 TD is basically 10.5 weeks. There's plenty more, those just came easy...
Week 1, 2007Brandon Marshall: 5-52-1Ronald Curry: 10-133-1In my league, Curry went for $30 (Boldin-like, they said!) and Marshall went for $5.
 
I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
If you haven't been playing this game for long, it may be a small sample size to you. But after 15+ years playing in a couple of leagues that use blind bidding, my experience is that the Week 1-2 pickups generally have much more impact than those made in late season. All too often I see conservative owners sitting on a pile of waiver money with not much to spend it on, at the end of the year. Not only is getting a productive player more rare late in the season, but when you win a late season guy, you have far fewer weeks in which to get production from him. You also have to consider the trade value of an early season gem vs a late season gem.
For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.
Funny how you give two examples in the first clause, and only one in the second.
I've been playing for 10 years. My experience is that owners spend an INAPPROPRIATE amount of money early on guys who don't produce much the rest of the season. Fine, here's a few more:Maurice Jones-Drew, Week 3 of 2005. He had 4 carries for 12 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards the first 2 weeks combined. Earnest Graham, Week 3 of last year. Injuries gave him the opportunity, and he wasn't even the Cadillac handcuff to start the season.Kurt Warner, Week 3 of last year. 27 TDs in 14 games....zero snaps taken in weeks 1 and 2. Larry Johnson, Week 12 of 2004. Priest had an injury-free 2003 and LJ mostly played spot duty. He didn't get into a game until week 8, and when Priest did get hurt, Derrick Blaylock was the guy for 2 weeks. All LJ did was rack up 781 total yards and 12 TDs in the final 6 weeks. Tony Romo, 2006...replaced Drew Bledsoe mid-game in week 7. Got his first start in week 8. Totaled 2900 yards and 19 TD is basically 10.5 weeks. There's plenty more, those just came easy...
If Larry Johnson was ever on your waiver wire then maybe our leagues are too different to find a common ground.Sure there are other examples of late season gems, but again, there are plenty more that come from Week 1-2. I honestly don't have time to go back to find every example for you. Guys get overlooked in the draft, it happens every year. And you are still missing the point that an Eddie Royal now can net you great value in a trade, whereas a Kolby Smith pickup in Week 11 will not.
LJ was on waivers in a 10-team redraft league, in 2004, because Priest was healthy and LJ had barely played.If you're talking about a 16-team dynasty, then yes, it would be silly to see him on waivers. With respect to someone like Morris or Cassel, they have very little value in dynasties (Morris - age, Cassel - return of Brady), and it's unlikely they are starting for you unless your league is 14+ teams or has several flex positions. I prefer to spend my cap on guys who will or could start for me at some point in the season, or who I could trade for a potential starter. I was able to start Kolby Smith in my playoffs and he helped me squeeze out a win on the way to a league championship. On the other hand, I see someone spending big on Eddie Royal in larger leagues or dynasties. Although his sell high point would have been right before Marshall returned. I didn't realize this board was only for owners in 20-team dynasties, sorry.
 
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Fine, here's a few more:Maurice Jones-Drew, Week 3 of 2005. He had 4 carries for 12 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards the first 2 weeks combined. Earnest Graham, Week 3 of last year. Injuries gave him the opportunity, and he wasn't even the Cadillac handcuff to start the season.Kurt Warner, Week 3 of last year. 27 TDs in 14 games....zero snaps taken in weeks 1 and 2. Larry Johnson, Week 12 of 2004. Priest had an injury-free 2003 and LJ mostly played spot duty. He didn't get into a game until week 8, and when Priest did get hurt, Derrick Blaylock was the guy for 2 weeks. All LJ did was rack up 781 total yards and 12 TDs in the final 6 weeks. Tony Romo, 2006...replaced Drew Bledsoe mid-game in week 7. Got his first start in week 8. Totaled 2900 yards and 19 TD is basically 10.5 weeks. There's plenty more, those just came easy...
Week 1, 2007Brandon Marshall: 5-52-1Ronald Curry: 10-133-1In my league, Curry went for $30 (Boldin-like, they said!) and Marshall went for $5.
How could Curry have been "Boldin-like" in 2007 when he had already had 2 relatively productive seasons before then?
 
I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
If you haven't been playing this game for long, it may be a small sample size to you. But after 15+ years playing in a couple of leagues that use blind bidding, my experience is that the Week 1-2 pickups generally have much more impact than those made in late season. All too often I see conservative owners sitting on a pile of waiver money with not much to spend it on, at the end of the year. Not only is getting a productive player more rare late in the season, but when you win a late season guy, you have far fewer weeks in which to get production from him. You also have to consider the trade value of an early season gem vs a late season gem.
For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.
Funny how you give two examples in the first clause, and only one in the second.
I've been playing for 10 years. My experience is that owners spend an INAPPROPRIATE amount of money early on guys who don't produce much the rest of the season. Fine, here's a few more:Maurice Jones-Drew, Week 3 of 2005. He had 4 carries for 12 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards the first 2 weeks combined. Earnest Graham, Week 3 of last year. Injuries gave him the opportunity, and he wasn't even the Cadillac handcuff to start the season.Kurt Warner, Week 3 of last year. 27 TDs in 14 games....zero snaps taken in weeks 1 and 2. Larry Johnson, Week 12 of 2004. Priest had an injury-free 2003 and LJ mostly played spot duty. He didn't get into a game until week 8, and when Priest did get hurt, Derrick Blaylock was the guy for 2 weeks. All LJ did was rack up 781 total yards and 12 TDs in the final 6 weeks. Tony Romo, 2006...replaced Drew Bledsoe mid-game in week 7. Got his first start in week 8. Totaled 2900 yards and 19 TD is basically 10.5 weeks. There's plenty more, those just came easy...
If Larry Johnson was ever on your waiver wire then maybe our leagues are too different to find a common ground.Sure there are other examples of late season gems, but again, there are plenty more that come from Week 1-2. I honestly don't have time to go back to find every example for you. Guys get overlooked in the draft, it happens every year. And you are still missing the point that an Eddie Royal now can net you great value in a trade, whereas a Kolby Smith pickup in Week 11 will not.
LJ was on waivers in a 10-team redraft league, in 2004, because Priest was healthy and LJ had barely played.If you're talking about a 16-team dynasty, then yes, it would be silly to see him on waivers. With respect to someone like Morris or Cassel, they have very little value in dynasties (Morris - age, Cassel - return of Brady), and it's unlikely they are starting for you unless your league is 14+ teams or has several flex positions. I prefer to spend my cap on guys who will or could start for me at some point in the season, or who I could trade for a potential starter. I can see someone spending big on Eddie Royal in larger leagues or dynasties. I didn't realize this board was only for owners in 20-team dynasties, sorry.
I'm referring to a 12-team redraft leagues. There probably is a significant difference between 12-team and 10-team waiver pool though. This is probably why you and I have different perspectives on the matter. You may be right in your scenario.
 
This depends on league and roster size. With short benches you can afford to hold out till later in the year and pickup a player who is replacing someone injured. In deep leagues you have to gamble early and grab a guy who could have a breakout year.

 
How could Curry have been "Boldin-like" in 2007 when he had already had 2 relatively productive seasons before then?
The point here is that if a player who is the true #1 WR for his team had a 10-133-1 week, it appears people would be advocating using a very large portion of their budget to get that player. Last year, that player was Ronald Curry.
 
I'm just saying that rushing to quick judgement based on a small sample size can come back to bite you.
If you haven't been playing this game for long, it may be a small sample size to you. But after 15+ years playing in a couple of leagues that use blind bidding, my experience is that the Week 1-2 pickups generally have much more impact than those made in late season. All too often I see conservative owners sitting on a pile of waiver money with not much to spend it on, at the end of the year. Not only is getting a productive player more rare late in the season, but when you win a late season guy, you have far fewer weeks in which to get production from him. You also have to consider the trade value of an early season gem vs a late season gem.
For every Boldin/Colston, there is a Ryan Grant, who did not explode onto the scene until week 8 last year.
Funny how you give two examples in the first clause, and only one in the second.
I've been playing for 10 years. My experience is that owners spend an INAPPROPRIATE amount of money early on guys who don't produce much the rest of the season. Fine, here's a few more:Maurice Jones-Drew, Week 3 of 2005. He had 4 carries for 12 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards the first 2 weeks combined. Earnest Graham, Week 3 of last year. Injuries gave him the opportunity, and he wasn't even the Cadillac handcuff to start the season.Kurt Warner, Week 3 of last year. 27 TDs in 14 games....zero snaps taken in weeks 1 and 2. Larry Johnson, Week 12 of 2004. Priest had an injury-free 2003 and LJ mostly played spot duty. He didn't get into a game until week 8, and when Priest did get hurt, Derrick Blaylock was the guy for 2 weeks. All LJ did was rack up 781 total yards and 12 TDs in the final 6 weeks. Tony Romo, 2006...replaced Drew Bledsoe mid-game in week 7. Got his first start in week 8. Totaled 2900 yards and 19 TD is basically 10.5 weeks. There's plenty more, those just came easy...
If Larry Johnson was ever on your waiver wire then maybe our leagues are too different to find a common ground.Sure there are other examples of late season gems, but again, there are plenty more that come from Week 1-2. I honestly don't have time to go back to find every example for you. Guys get overlooked in the draft, it happens every year. And you are still missing the point that an Eddie Royal now can net you great value in a trade, whereas a Kolby Smith pickup in Week 11 will not.
LJ was on waivers in a 10-team redraft league, in 2004, because Priest was healthy and LJ had barely played.If you're talking about a 16-team dynasty, then yes, it would be silly to see him on waivers. With respect to someone like Morris or Cassel, they have very little value in dynasties (Morris - age, Cassel - return of Brady), and it's unlikely they are starting for you unless your league is 14+ teams or has several flex positions. I prefer to spend my cap on guys who will or could start for me at some point in the season, or who I could trade for a potential starter. I can see someone spending big on Eddie Royal in larger leagues or dynasties. I didn't realize this board was only for owners in 20-team dynasties, sorry.
I'm referring to a 12-team redraft leagues. There probably is a significant difference between 12-team and 10-team waiver pool though. This is probably why you and I have different perspectives on the matter. You may be right in your scenario.
Agreed! Although I would say that I've done both small and large league, and I don't usually notice the difference too much unless I'm in a 14-16 team league. Haven't done anything larger than that, though.
 
freeannyong said:
How much are you guys planning on using for Carlson?
He's already gone in my league (snagged after week 1), but Scheffler is available (go figure!)...I'm actually going against my the trend of my previous posts in this thread and considering a pretty sizeable bid for him.
 

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