Bloom vs Actual drafts (1 Viewer)

[P Boy]

IDP leagues, with the esteemed Professor of FF Draftology Sigmund Bloom vs 135 actual IDP drafts that have taken place so far at mfl.com.

Of particular interest to me were where Bloom and the actual drafters had the biggest discrepancies in their picks, so I took where players picked by Bloom & those drafted in leagues were more than 10 draft slots apart.

Some interesting players on each list.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of players that Bloom likes a lot more than the actual drafters, based upon Bloom's list order and the difference between his list slot & the pick in actual drafts:

Klopfenstein, Joe STL TE 16

Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 19

Wilson, Travis CLE WR 22

Williams, Demetrius BAL WR 16

Scheffler, Tony DEN TE 13

Hass, Mike NOS WR 21

Byrd, Dominique STL TE 28

Martin, Ingle GBP QB 22

Hixon, Dominek GBP WR 41

Jacobs, Omar PIT QB 25

Gradkowski, Bruce TBB QB 33

Nance, Martin BUF WR 40

Howard, De'Arrias KCC RB 39

Orr, Jonathan TEN WR 29

Mills, Garrett NEP TE 32

Bing, Darnell OAK S 13

Webb, Jeff KCC WR 21

Simpson, Ko BUF S 27

Hall, Andre TBB RB 29

Henderson, Taurean MIN RB 29

Lee, Greg ARI WR 28

Watkins, Todd, ARI WR 28

McNeal, Reggie CIN QB 15

Smith, Anthony PIT S 18

Here is the list of players that were in actual drafts that were picked higher than Bloom liked them in his list, based upon actual draft order and the difference between their actual draft slot & their position on Bloom's list (negative can be ignored):

Williams, Mario HOU DE -20

Huff, Michael OAK S -14

Carpenter, Bobby DAL LB -20

Washington, Leon NYJ RB -16

Hali, Tamba KCC DE -50

Daniels, P.J. BAL RB -16

Cromartie, Antonio SDC CB -35

Kiwanuka, Mathias NYG DE -29

Hester, Devin CHI CB -47

Bunkley, Brodrick PHI DT -34

Hill, Tye STL CB -31

Fasano, Anthony DAL TE -42

Williams, Jimmy ATL CB -34

Ngata, Haloti BAL DT -41

Tapp, Darryl SEA DE -37

Youboty, Ashton BUF CB -37

Lundy, Wali HOU RB -17

Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK -28

McCargo, John BUF DT -28

Manning, Danieal CHI S -27

Schlegel, Anthony NYJ LB -27

Dumervil, Elvis DEN DE -27

Daniels, Owen HOU TE -27

Blackmon, Will GBP WR -24

Joseph, Johnathan CIN CB -24

Here are the links to each list:

Bloom's list

mfl.com top 113 in 135 drafts

Raw data (undrafted positions filled by next available consecutive position):

mfl rnk	Player	mfl ave	Bloom  Diff1	Bush, Reggie NOS RB	2.09	1  02	Maroney, Laurence NEP RB	4.96	2  03	Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB	5.22	3  04	Addai, Joseph IND RB	5.67	8  -45	White, LenDale TEN RB	7.95	6  -16	Davis, Vernon SFO TE	9.59	7  -17	Leinart, Matt ARI QB	10.61	5  28	Hawk, A.J. GBP LB	11.7	15  -79	Young, Vince TEN QB	12.37	4  510	Jackson, Chad NEP WR	14.52	10  011	Cutler, Jay DEN QB	16.21	9  212	Holmes, Santonio PIT WR	16.67	11  113	Williams, Mario HOU DE	18.16	33  -2014	Drew, Maurice JAC RB	19.45	13  115	Sims, Ernie DET LB	19.77	16  -116	Norwood, Jerious ATL RB	21.26	12  417	Greenway, Chad MIN LB	21.56	17  018	Huff, Michael OAK S	21.87	32  -1419	Moss, Sinorice NYG WR	22.65	23  -420	Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE	24.03	14  621	Calhoun, Brian DET RB	25.2	18  322	Jennings, Greg GBP WR	27.06	22  023	Jackson, D'Qwell CLE LB	27.27	19  425	Carpenter, Bobby DAL LB	31.35	45  -2026	Whitner, Donte BUF S	33.04	34  -827	Clemens, Kellen NYJ QB	33.58	26  129	Harrison, Jerome CLE RB	34.36	25  430	Pope, Leonard ARI TE	35.23	28  231	Hagan, Derek MIA WR	35.37	41  -1032	Washington, Leon NYJ RB	35.41	48  -1633	Ryans, DeMeco HOU LB	36.04	24  934	Lawson, Manny SFO LB	36.5	38  -435	Stovall, Maurice TBB WR	38.11	31  436	Klopfenstein, Joe STL TE	39.79	20  1637	Croyle, Brodie KCC QB	40.7	42  -538	McIntosh, Roger WAS LB	40.98	35  339	Jackson, Tarvaris MIN QB	41.1	47  -840	Marshall, Brandon DEN WR	41.23	21  1941	Wimbley, Kamerion CLE DE	41.35	44  -342	Hodge, Abdul GBP LB	41.57	39  343	Scheffler, Tony DEN TE	42.96	30  1344	Howard, Thomas OAK LB	45.74	43  145	Williams, Demetrius BAL WR	46.14	29  1646	Hali, Tamba KCC DE	46.23	96  -5047	Humes, Cedric PIT RB	46.32	50  -348	Allen, Jason MIA CB	50.79	46  249	Wilson, Travis CLE WR	50.85	27  2250	Avant, Jason PHI WR	51.19	40  1051	Daniels, P.J. BAL RB	51.46	67  -1652	Cromartie, Antonio SDC CB	53.7	87  -3553	Kiwanuka, Mathias NYG DE	54.18	82  -2954	Hester, Devin CHI CB	54.2	101  -4755	Bullocks, Daniel DET S	55.26	56  -156	Williams, Brandon SFO WR	56.48	54  257	Hass, Mike NOS WR	56.95	36  2158	Bunkley, Brodrick PHI DT	57.06	92  -3459	Hill, Tye STL CB	57.62	90  -3160	Fasano, Anthony DAL TE	58.06	102  -4261	Williams, Jimmy ATL CB	58.34	95  -3462	Ngata, Haloti BAL DT	58.94	103  -4163	Whitehurst, Charlie SDC QB	58.98	63  064	Robinson, Michael SFO RB	59.8	73  -965	Byrd, Dominique STL TE	60.7	37  2866	Smith, Brad NYJ WR	61.61	60  667	Tapp, Darryl SEA DE	61.9	104  -3768	Youboty, Ashton BUF CB	62.78	105  -3769	Alston, Jon STL LB	64.04	62  770	Pollard, Bernard KCC S	64.07	73  -371	Martin, Ingle GBP QB	64.24	49  2272	Reid, Willie PIT WR	64.9	70  273	Rodgers, Cory GBP WR	64.94	65  874	Bing, Darnell OAK S	65.67	61  1375	Wilkinson, Gerris NYG LB	66.38	77  -276	Lundy, Wali HOU RB	66.42	93  -1777	Jacobs, Omar PIT QB	67.1	52  2578	Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK	67.85	106  -2879	McCargo, John BUF DT	67.89	107  -2880	Green, Skyler DAL WR	68.1	85  -581	Manning, Danieal CHI S	68.16	108  -2782	Schlegel, Anthony NYJ LB	68.4	109  -2783	Dumervil, Elvis DEN DE	68.89	110  -2784	Daniels, Owen HOU TE	69.09	111  -2785	Webb, Jeff KCC WR	69.84	64  2186	Gradkowski, Bruce TBB QB	70.63	53  3387	Orr, Jonathan TEN WR	71.21	58  2988	Blackmon, Will GBP WR	71.4	112  -2489	Joseph, Johnathan CIN CB	72.04	113  -2490	McNeal, Reggie CIN QB	72.38	75  1591	Mills, Garrett NEP TE	75.5	59  3292	Hixon, Dominek  GBP WR	101	51  4193	Simpson, Ko BUF S	105	66  2794	Smith, Anthony PIT S	111	76  1895	Nance, Martin BUF WR	115	55  4096	Howard, De'Arrias KCC RB	116	57  3997	Hall, Andre TBB RB	118	68  2998	Henderson, Taurean MIN RB	119	69  2999	Lee, Greg ARI WR	120	71  28100	Watkins, Todd, ARI WR	121	72  28

 

[ConstruxBoy]

All the players on the first list are good and all the players on the second list suck? Or is that because I've been reading too much Bloom?

 

[P Boy]

All the players on the first list are good and all the players on the second list suck? Or is that because I've been reading too much Bloom?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Now that I got the smartass remark out of the way, the difference is one of philosophy. Bloom believes, I think, that it is smarter to draft a later round offensive player than an early round defensive player in most cases because successful IDP players are not always very clear. AJ Hawk may be a superstar NFL player, but if he gets moved to SLB in his second season, then we was't worth a first round pick in an IDP league. Offense players are more dependant on talent, with a little situation/opportunity sprinkled in. Defense players are much more dependant on situation/opportunity for IDP success. As a DJ Williams owner, I agree with this philosophy.

 

[P Boy]

Okay, I'll kick off the observations. Bloom seems to place a much higher emphasis on offensive players than the average IDP league. Blooms list of players that he likes much better than their actual draft position has 3 D players on it, the rest are all O players. The actual draft list is predominantly populated by D players (& one freakin' Keecker), with only 6 O players.

That would suggest that Bloom is rating his players with for a league with much higher O emphasis than most IDPers play in, or perhaps he's trying to do some kind of middling of non-IDP leagues & IDP leagues on his list, which moves ends up emphasizing O players much more.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

My philosophy on rookie drafts is really a modified "Minimal WR" theory (eternal props to Mike Anderson/Drugrunner). You guys have hit the main point, O over D.

Ill be writing a longer article about this over the summer, but to me the crucial point is this:

You can always find guys that are anywhere from decent depth to even startable (and in some cases solid) IDPs on the waiver wire. Offense is picked clean, and rarely do you get any offensive players of value on the waiver wire. Therefore, use your picks on offensive players unless there is a huge difference in the tiers (take a 1st tier LB over a 3rd tier RB or WR, and so on).

more later...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Now that I got the smartass remark out of the way, the difference is one of philosophy. Bloom believes, I think, that it is smarter to draft a later round offensive player than an early round defensive player in most cases because successful IDP players are not always very clear. AJ Hawk may be a superstar NFL player, but if he gets moved to SLB in his second season, then we was't worth a first round pick in an IDP league. Offense players are more dependant on talent, with a little situation/opportunity sprinkled in. Defense players are much more dependant on situation/opportunity for IDP success. As a DJ Williams owner, I agree with this philosophy.

This is part of the strategy, although I think you can predict IDP success with accuracy. A bigger part of this, that I didnt cover in my previous post, is that IDPs, even the massive stud IDPs, have a cap on their value in dynasty leagues. I talked about in the O v IDP equivalencies in the IDP forum here:link

Assuming your league breaks out DE/DT, CB/S, here are some rough equivalencies off the top of my head:

Stud (top 10) LB = Aging Starting RB (Dillon), good developmental RB (Gore/MBarber), solid #2 WR (Coles/Mason), 2nd tier QB (Leftwich/Delhomme), 2nd tier TE (McMichael)

2nd tier (top 25) LB/ Stud (top 10) DE/ (top 5) DT/ Stud S (Top 10)/ Stud CB (top 5) = talented RB in bad situation (MMoore), so-so RB in good situation (Rhodes), #3 WR (Bryant/McCareins), 3rd tier QB (Warner/Frye), 3rd tier TE (Stevens/Clark)

Basically, even the no brainer stud IDPs are never worth more than RBs with some question to their value and 2nd tier QB/WR/TE. Now, you might be more conservative that I am. You might feel more comfortable spending that #12 pick on Hawk, who is very likely to be a stud LB, likely falling in the 75-150 overall range of value in dynasty rankings for IDP leagues. I am more of a gambler, and will count on later picks/FA pickups/trades to get my starting LBs, and gamble on an RB who has a chance to have top 50 value.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

A few comments on specific guys that I under value compared to the ADP:

Mario Williams - DEs take a while to develop, and Im not as sold on him as most. Also the spread of the top DEs to the 25th, 50th, and so on (think VBD) is not as steep as other IDP positions, so a stud is not worth as much.

Michael Huff - Love his talent, but not sure if he'll be stuck in coverage a lot like Reed.

carpenter - just dont see him being a big play guy from 3-4 OLB

Washington - i see him as 3rd down back, nothing more

Hali - hustle DE - i see guys like him on the WW. I think the chiefs reached for him.

daniels/lundy - not in love with their talent despite opportunity

rest of the IDPs - pretty much in line with my philosophy.

 

[wannabee]

Let me throw out an idea:

Bloom understands which positions in fantasy football have the most value and which have the least. In addition, maybe Bloom understands which positions have the most volatility (due to position change, injury, etc.) and which are easiest positions to fill on the waiver wire.

I would think, for example, Bloom might say that IDP DLine and DBs are hard to predict and you never know when a LB might switch positions. In addition, I think Bloom might say that QB is easiest to replace on the waiver wire so they might be devalued after the top few.

In no way do I want to speak for Bloom, but I can see why he has these rated accordingly.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

couple of other points to toss out there:

like i said in the previous post, i dont see that big of a span from studs to end of the starter tier and decent depth tier at DE. same goes for CB. In fact, i ALWAYS gets my CBs from the waiver wire. CB is a weird position. players can put up gaudy stats because they suck, which is completely counterintuitive. Safeties have a bigger span, so i emphasize them more, and LBs have the biggest span. However, as i mentioned, saavy owners can get startable LBs on the cheap. Dashon Polk, Bart Scott, and Angelo Crowell were great examples from last year. You have to know the depth charts and move fast, but it can be done.

I also emphasize TEs more than most. I believe TE is just as important as QB, and more important in leagues with TE premium, or flexes that include TE. There are less viable TEs to go around than QBs. Why QB gets more play is beyond me.

On a similar note, I de-emphasize QBs some. QBs take longer to contribute, and are more hit and miss than other positions (imo). Also, I think QBs have little trade value unless they firmly get in the top 10, which is hard unless they are a top talent, in a wide open offense, or a quality running QB. All that being said, I still would rather use my late picks on QB prospects than IDPs.

 

[P Boy]

I should have added originally that this in no way, shape, or form is meant to demean, diminish, or scorn Mr. Bloom's work. To the contrary, I believe Bloom to have much more credibility in draft analaysis than many "experts", including some that garner hefty $$$ from the networks. I hold Bloom in high esteem, as he knows very well.

This is only as a point of emphasis in comparison with the way actual drafts are going right now in dynasty leagues and to provoke discussion.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Let me throw out an idea:

Bloom understands which positions in fantasy football have the most value and which have the least.  In addition, maybe Bloom understands which positions have the most volatility (due to position change, injury, etc.)  and which are easiest positions to fill on the waiver wire. 

I would think, for example, Bloom might say that IDP DLine and DBs are hard to predict and you never know when a LB might switch positions.  In addition, I think Bloom might say that QB is easiest to replace on the waiver wire so they might be devalued after the top few.

In no way do I want to speak for Bloom, but I can see why he has these rated accordingly.

Volatility is another good point to bring up. RBs value can explode overnight, which folds right into my buy low/sell high philosophy (article coming on that this summer also). For instance, after hearing about Tyson Thompson in camp last year, I picked up him in all my dynasty leagues. The week after he got most of the work, I traded him for a 2006 3rd round pick to the julius jones owner, which i used to take abdul hodge. This strategy takes a riverboat gambler's guts (and stupidity) - because you might trade away sam gado before his value is about to set and really explode. But the point is, your offensive players are more likely to add trade value over a short period of time than your IDPs.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I should have added originally that this in no way, shape, or form is meant to demean, diminish, or scorn Mr. Bloom's work.  To the contrary, I believe Bloom to have much more credibility in draft analaysis than many "experts", including some that garner hefty $$$ from the networks.  I hold Bloom in high esteem, as he knows very well.

This is only as a point of emphasis in comparison with the way actual drafts are going right now in dynasty leagues and to provoke discussion.

Much respect to you too, sir. No need to qualify your thread. I welcome the examination and any criticism. for instance, I know that some leagues are more aggressive about weighting IDP scoring so that IDPs really can attain the value of stud offensive players. If I played in some of those leagues, I would adjust my board accordingly. My rankings are really an approximation, and they should ALWAYS be adjusted for:1) scoring system/starting lineups/rosters/ league size

2) your own talent evaluation

3) team needs

4) anticipating who your leaguemates will pass on, reach for

and so on...

they are a rough guide to start with, by no means a "cheatsheet" for rookie drafts. In the rookie drafts I have done the last few weeks, I have taken guys 20 slots lower than the highest ranked player left in the 100 for some of the reasons I have outlined above.

 

[Dope]

LOL...In my recent dynasty draft I have:

Brandon Marshall

De'Arrius Howard

Domenick Hixon

All Bloom value specials.

Though I also took Leon Washington, so I'm not TOTALLY up Sigmund's butt.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'm not much of an IDP player myself, but this screams to me that there will be rookie players to pick up on the "right" side of the ball (offense) later in your draft that represent higher upside and value than on defense.

 

[wannabee]

I do not think I articulated this well in the above post. But, simply, I think that the difference you see, Pony, is called VALUE.

Bloom is trying to identify players who will outperform their draft position in the long term.

 

[P Boy]

I do not think I articulated this well in the above post. But, simply, I think that the difference you see, Pony, is called VALUE.

Bloom is trying to identify players who will outperform their draft position in the long term.

I understand that. What I am trying to identify & possibly quantify as much as possible, is Bloom's perception compared to that of typical dynasty FF owners - as well as get some other opinion thrown onto the board. After all, Bloom wasn't born a staffer. He earned his spot, and deservedly so. There are some other very bright thinkers here, and it's nice to stir the pot sometimes to get some of them to chime in.

 

[Mpudi]

...i ALWAYS get my CBs from the waiver wire. CB is a weird position. players can put up gaudy stats because they suck, which is completely counterintuitive.

I was going to mention that, in the initial post, six CBs were listed on the second list (players taken higher than Bloom's value). This really stuck out to me, because CBs don't really put up fantasy numbers. Even in leagues where CBs must be started along with safeties (and I'm in one like that), I still wouldn't draft a CB in the rookie draft. Like Bloom, I definitely would go waiver wire for those pickups.Another thing: value, of course, depends on your league's scoring system. Bloom's rankings are a great starting point, but shouldn't be the only thing used when you put together a draft list for your team.

 

[Imedos]

I also emphasize TEs more than most. I believe TE is just as important as QB, and more important in leagues with TE premium, or flexes that include TE. There are less viable TEs to go around than QBs. Why QB gets more play is beyond me.

I used to agree with this philosophy, but with the recent emergence of TEs, I can't justify following it anymore.Just look at all the good/great TEs out there:

Gonzo

Gates

Witten

Shockey

Heap

Cooley

Watson

Troupe

LJ Smith

Winslow

Jeremy Stevens

Crumpler

McMichael

Dallas Clark

Heath Miller

Alex Smith

So you have all those guys, most of whom I would be comfy starting as my starting TE, then you throw in VD and Mercedes, about 3 or so other rookies that have potential, and it just devalues the importance of the TE position. I remember when it was the big 3, then it just seemed to get bigger and bigger every year. Now it's too saturated. And if you need an emergency guy there are usually TEs on the waiver wire that have at least an outside chance at catching a random TE.

Now if you are talking leagues where there is a premium for TE scoring, or where you have to start 2 TEs, then I can see placing an emphasis back on the TEs, but otherwise it's better to just play the waiting game on TE as a lot do for qbs.

I totally understand the importance of qbs though. w/o a te, you can scrape by or trade with a team that is 2 deep(it's usually less expensive to trade for a TE than qb). If your qb stable is burnt out, your team is sunk unless you can snag some decent backups that step in for qb injuries.

 

[beto]

At first glance, Bloom seems to have a lot of undrafted offensive guys in his top 100 that cause the big discrepancy with IDP leagues. Your average IDP leaguer is not going to be savvy on the undrafted guys.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

At first glance, Bloom seems to have a lot of undrafted offensive guys in his top 100 that cause the big discrepancy with IDP leagues. Your average IDP leaguer is not going to be savvy on the undrafted guys.

I do like spending picks after the 50s on longshots. This year a lot of them happen to be UDFAs. I can not remember another year with so many quality UDFAs at the skill positions. As I said in another thread, I like drafting them late, seeing how their camp goes, and dropping them for a decent IDP prospect if it doesnt work out. Even when they end up cut and out of the league, you end up with an IDP prospect not much below the one you have drafted in place of the offensive longshot.

 

[msommer]

As Bloom posts above the scoring system, league size and line up requirements matter more than anything.

For instance in the league that I have posted in the rookie draft thread there are some quirks

1) each pick carries a mandated salary. It ranges from 6% cap to 0.3% cap pver 96 picks.

2) an average starting db or dl costs about 3% of the cap in the auction - so no one in their right mind will take a rookie from those positions costing more than that - the risk reward ratio would be out of whack

3) it is essentially a start 3 LB league (one in flex) and a top LB scores as much as a top RB. An average starter costs about 6-8% cap so expected studs go in the first round - and constitute a starter at a discount! Every one carries at least 4 LBs plus developmental players

etc etc

My point is, while it is interesting to make the comparison - without knowing and adjusting for the background of each league (which is obviously a gargantuan task) the analysis is flawed in it's essence.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Why are Verron Hayes, Antonio Bryant and Ernest Wilford on the ADP list?

As soon as I saw these lists I wanted to isolate the biggest discrepencies. I side strongly with Bloom's thinking on rookie values and IDPs even though we disagree on a few players. I'm glad he was here to comment this morning. His explanations fall in line with my thinking. Fwiw, in my only dynasty draft, I moved down, added three picks (for 9 in 6 rounds), drafted 8 straight offensive players and finished with one IDP.

Quoted below with two exceptions are players from both lists with 3 round gaps. It seemed to me they were the most important to look at given the margins.

Bloom:

Hixon, Dominek GBP WR 41

Nance, Martin BUF WR 40

Howard, De'Arriuss KCC RB 39

Drafts:

Hali, Tamba KCC DE -50

Hester, Devin CHI CB -47

Fasano, Anthony DAL TE -42

Ngata, Haloti BAL DT -41

Tapp, Darryl SEA DE -37

Youboty, Ashton BUF CB -37

Bloom values Hixon, Nance and Howard considerably more than the drafters.Hixon is one of the players I drafted (5.11, 8th pick). He was 9th in the nation in receiving yards last year. From the draft only Hass, Jennings, Mills, Anderson and Hagan had more yards. Like Jennings he was at a smaller school, and he consistently had big games despite being regularly double covered. Brandon Marshall fans had to take note that he was drafted by the same team (Broncos) in the same round. Rod Smith is aging, Ashley Lelie is flaking out, Javon Walker is coming off a bad injury. There's an opportunity here for a WR to emerge in Denver over the next couple of years. Hixon is a fine value to gamble on late in a draft.

Nance caught 81 balls for 1100 yards and 14 TDs (3rd in the nation) last year. He's a big, tough, redzone target who has been very productive since coming back off a bad injury. There's no decent explanation for why he went undrafted, but he went to a great place to make an impact. For him to be going undrafted in dynasty leagues while some very iffy IDPs are being taken is probably not the best use of a draft pick.

Howard has a shot at being LJ's backup. Just the chance makes him more valuable than a long list of IDPs being taken ahead of him.

From the drafters list 5 IDPs and a TE (Fasano) are going much much sooner than Bloom ranked them. There's a few more, but I drew the line at 36 figuring 3 rounds in a 12 teamer. I think the message is those 5 IDPs represent very little value because of the the skill position players still available where they are being drafted.

Fasano being a TE is a big outlier especially considering Bloom values TEs more than most. He makes me look at another angle for discrepencies that stand out: Defensive players high on Bloom's list and offensive players being taken high by the drafters (neverminding the three round gap).

Bloom:

Bing, Darnell OAK S 13

Simpson, Ko BUF S 27

Smith, Anthony PIT S 18

Drafters:

Washington, Leon NYJ RB -16

Daniels, P.J. BAL RB -16

Fasano, Anthony DAL TE -42

Lundy, Wali HOU RB -17

Daniels, Owen HOU TE -27

So while the drafters are weighing IDPs much heavier than Bloom, they devalue Bing, Simpson and Smith. I wonder why? If you're weak at DB, these are three to target late (it would seem you can get them in FA). Those of you who followed my draft stuff here know I never understood Simpson's high value in mocks, and I was pretty hard on Bing too. They both fell considerably and I felt justified. I think that fall is killing their ADPs in these rookie drafts, and I can't form a strong opinion about that, but I think Simpson is in a much juicier spot than most realize. He is a natural but undersized SS. Whitner may end up the FS. Simpson is a terrific tackler which is money for IDPs. I've come around to CB value, especially rookie CB value, but it won't be obvious where it is until late preseason. On the other hand while Bloom is wieghing the O much heavier, he has five of them devalued well below the drafters. He's voiced his opinion of the three RBs. I agree with him about their talent, but I like taking chances on RBs with chances. As valued as that position is, I probably overvalue it. I think Washington could be a big surprise. Ozzie and co. said Daniels reminds them of Chester Taylor, so they drafted him. Kubiak says Lundy has the perfect running style for his offense. Any of these guys are worth a roster spot this preseason... I think. The two TEs, Fasano and Daniels, are what they are-- rookies with good shots at being TE2s on teams promising 2 TE sets. I just have big doubts that there's much fantasy production coming from either soon, but either could be worth holding onto for a couple seasons to see how things develop.

Anyway, I'm just diggin around the lists for value.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Another thing I'll add: I do take IDPs in rookie drafts. In a recent draft, I used picks 38,39,and 40 on demeco ryans, abdul hodge, and donte whitner, and passed on higher rated offensive players on my board for them. It just happened that my biggest needs were LB and S, and I have positive strong feelings about all 3.

Rules are made to be broken.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

On the other hand while Bloom is wieghing the O much heavier, he has five of them devalued well below the drafters.  He's voiced his opinion of the three RBs.  I agree with him about their talent, but I like taking chances on RBs with chances.  As valued as that position is, I probably overvalue it.  I think Washington could be a big surprise.  Ozzie and co. said Daniels reminds them of Chester Taylor, so they drafted him.  Kubiak says Lundy has the perfect running style for his offense.  Any of these guys are worth a roster spot this preseason... I think.  The two TEs, Fasano and Daniels, are what they are-- rookies with good shots at being TE2s on teams promising 2 TE sets.  I just have big doubts that there's much fantasy production coming from either soon, but either could be worth holding onto for a couple seasons to see how things develop. 

Anyway, I'm just diggin around the lists for value.

Im mellowing on Fasano. On the outside shot Witten does walk next year, he could become a top 15-20 TE. He'll make the minicamp 100 (coming soon). Owen Daniels, I am really on the fence about, there's Putzier, and Joppru is finally healthy. I need to hear more about how that wide open position battle is going.PJ Daniels will move up, i underestimated the opportunity he'll get early to show his stuff (already being talked about as a 3rd down back).

 

[Chaos Commish]

Anyway, I'm just diggin around the lists for value.

Also, I think Fasano appearing twice in my long post makes him the most overvalued player in rookie drafts... imho. I also think that was true of the actual draft.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Hixon is one of the players I drafted (5.11, 8th pick).  He was 9th in the nation in receiving yards last year.  From the draft only Hass, Jennings, Mills, Anderson and Hagan had more yards.  Like Jennings he was at a smaller school, and he consistently had big games despite being regularly double covered.  Brandon Marshall fans had to take note that he was drafted by the same team (Broncos) in the same round.  Rod Smith is aging, Ashley Lelie is flaking out, Javon Walker is coming off a bad injury.  There's an opportunity here for a WR to emerge in Denver over the next couple of years.  Hixon is a fine value to gamble on late in a draft.

Nance caught 81 balls for 1100 yards and 14 TDs (3rd in the nation) last year.  He's a big, tough, redzone target who has been very productive since coming back off a bad injury.  There's no decent explanation for why he went undrafted, but he went to a great place to make an impact.  For him to be going undrafted in dynasty leagues while some very iffy IDPs are being taken is probably not the best use of a draft pick.

Howard has a shot at being LJ's backup.  Just the chance makes him more valuable than a long list of IDPs being taken ahead of him.

I love the Hixon/Marshall combo and think it will yield a nice WR3 with upside in 08, if not earlier. I took Marshall at 28 and Hixon and 60, and Im happy with those guys at those picks. Both have upside to rival all of the WRs that went before them. This is good moment to say that I also value upside in rookie drafts over safer bets. I will take a guy with a 5-10% chance at stardom (in my estimation)over a guy with a 50% chance to be a solid player. Take Brandon Marshall vs. Jason Avant for example. I just think the merely solid players can be found on the WW a year early if you follow situations and development.I believe Nance slid because he was fighting a hammy strain through the pre-draft activities.

Howard's value is mainly based on what i saw as a dominant performance in the shrine practices and games and very solid pro day. He was on the same field with Lundy, Washington, Moore, Cory Ross, and Henderson, and he blew them away imo - at least when it came to running between the tackles and burst through the hole.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

positional scarcity is another important factor in trying to weigh value in drafting as you construct your roster...

even in leagues that break out DT from DE... in the leagues i am in, pretty much everybody just starts one DT... so in a 10-14 team league, that is not very many starters, always leaving a pool to draw from off WW...

with LB, all my leagues start four where possible... many of the best ones are going to be gone, & WW talent not as available...

another factor which is by its nature not incorporated into rankings in a vacuum is composition of your roster (different for everybody), what the relative roster strength is between offense & defense, how close you are or far away to winning a championship...

i'm not talking about a catastrophic reach like CB tye hill in round one because you need a CB instead of taking marcedes lewis when you already had a stud TE...

but take a roster that is stacked on offense from savvy initial veteran draft, shrewd trading & aggressive WW churning to turn up good prospects (sometimes a numbers game... more chances you take more likely you get multiple hits)... but that has few gaping holes on defense... imo, there might be point in draft where it may make sense in mid-rounds to take IDP that projects as exceptional starter, rather than highly speculative skill position player that languishes on bench for three or more seasons... couple stud IDPs might put said team over the top...

just to clarify, in leagues i am in (including game breakers with bloom), IDP is weighted heavier, where stud LB may score as much as tier two WR...

maybe because i think i have a good eye for IDP talent, & can use those mid-rounders & make them count, i like spending IDP picks there if i feel i can turn them into stud IDPs with tangible value... in some cases, these could later traded for picks which could in turn be used on offense... it may well be true if owners don't feel confident in defensive scouting, & they would just be throwing darts as it were, perhaps offense makes more sense in mid-rounds... at least random hit would lead to higher payoff... i like guys like daryl tapp & bernard pollard around round five as i think they may have top 20 upside for their position in a few years... but if i wasn't that confident in their projection, i may well have opted for speculative WR type...

i have been in the game for over a decade... but in dynasty IDP for just 4th year/set of drafts... maybe i am jaded or cynical, but it didn't escape my attention that in most drafts i have experienced up to now, after round three it is SO speculative... a lot of 4th, 5th, 6th+ rounders either aren't on your roster in few years or are marginal depth types... i just drafted claude wroten in several leagues around round seven... low risk if he succumbs to off field problems... but if he hits, could be a warren sapp & rod coleman type elite sack generating DT... wroten was a consensus first rounder that fell due to pre-draft transgressions... i like the chances of him hitting better than skill position players there... while anything is possible, if wroten is as good as i think, it won't be easy to find DT of that caliber on WW... even with point noted above that position is not as positionally scarce...

take scenario with team that you take over & you have to blow it up... if offense talent is thin... not sure if it makes sense to build powerful defense... you may just eek out few games you might have lost but still overall finish out of money... & get lower draft pick in process... in such a case i could really see spending disproportionate amount of picks on offense, take your lumps while those players are developing, & when you are ready to compete again, defense can be built more quickly, & priority could be shifted there, or overall roster balance be re-addressed at that time...

* it would be great if there existed good data for variance between draft picks still being on your roster & level of productiveness... one element to look at it would be a time spread profile... 1-2-3+ years later... break it down by ROUND (how many first rounders still on roster 2-3 years later... how many fifth, etc)... & also by POSITION (how many fifth round WRs still on roster... Ss or DEs?)...

with a statistical tool like taht, it would make this sort ot of analysis more rigorous & quantitative...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

but take a roster that is stacked on offense from savvy initial veteran draft, shrewd trading & aggressive WW churning to turn up good prospects (sometimes a numbers game... more chances you take more likely you get multiple hits)... but that has few gaping holes on defense... imo, there might be point in draft where it may make sense in mid-rounds to take IDP that projects as exceptional starter, rather than highly speculative skill position player that languishes on bench for three or more seasons... couple stud IDPs might put said team over the top...

this is exactly what i was getting at in my earlier post about taking ryans, whitner, and hodge over higher ranking offensive players on my board.

just to clarify, in leagues i am in (including game breakers with bloom), IDP is weighted heavier, where stud LB may score as much as tier two WR...

maybe because i think i have a good eye for IDP talent, & can use those mid-rounders & make them count, i like spending IDP picks there if i feel i can turn them into stud IDPs with tangible value... in some cases, these could later traded for picks which could in turn be used on offense... it may well be true if owners don't feel confident in defensive scouting, & they would just be throwing darts as it were, perhaps offense makes more sense in mid-rounds... at least random hit would lead to higher payoff... i like guys like daryl tapp & bernard pollard around round five as i think they may have top 20 upside for their position in a few years... but if i wasn't that confident in their projection, i may well have opted for speculative WR type...

another You should ALWAYS trust your own talent evaluation. It makes this a lot more fun, and makes your teams YOURS. If you feel a guy is going to hit, you have to pony up and spend a slightly higher pick than when youre just waiting to see what values will fall to you. Btw, your pick of Pollard in GB got me taking a much longer look at him, and I like what I see. I was able to grab him as a UDFA after a 5 round rookie draft in a 16 teamer.

i have been in the game for over a decade... but in dynasty IDP for just 4th year/set of drafts... maybe i am jaded or cynical, but it didn't escape my attention that in most drafts i have experienced up to now, after round three it is SO speculative... a lot of 4th, 5th, 6th+ rounders either aren't on your roster in few years or are marginal depth types... i just drafted claude wroten in several leagues around round seven... low risk if he succumbs to off field problems... but if he hits, could be a warren sapp & rod coleman type elite sack generating DT... wroten was a consensus first rounder that fell due to pre-draft transgressions... i like the chances of him hitting better than skill position players there... while anything is possible, if wroten is as good as i think, it won't be easy to find DT of that caliber on WW... even with point noted above that position is not as positionally scarce...

I agree on Wroten's upside and possible impact, but I hate carrying more than 1 DT, except when my starter is on bye. I try to free up every single possible roster spot for offensive fliers to sell high when they get a chance to play and have temporary spikes in value. I am obsessive about this strategy to a fault, but even when our rosters expand to 58 in my 16 teamer, I see offensive fliers I wish I could own. I could easily fill up a 70 man roster.Terrific feedback Bob.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

thanx, bloom...

& just for record (don't think this was implied, but for sake of clarity)... i'm in no way saying the ranking are without value...

i have benefited as much as anybody from bloom's keen eye & incisive analysis (one reason i am in league with him ((& pony boy in another)), too... isn't there proverb about keeping enemy close )...

just that rankings such as these, even if best in the world, HAVE to be adapted to unique contours of the landscape of your individual roster, league starting requirement & scoring idiosyncracies/peculiarities, etc...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

just that rankings such as these, even if best in the world, HAVE to be adapted to unique contours of the landscape of your individual roster, league starting requirement & scoring idiosyncracies/peculiarities, etc...

IF?IF?

 

[Chaos Commish]

maybe because i think i have a good eye for IDP talent, & can use those mid-rounders & make them count...

I agree you have a good eye for IDP talent and I sure appreciated it last season. You saved me hours of research and made the subscription worth it in time saved alone. However, your (and the staff's) eye for IDP talent makes me confident chasing the reach/potential star on offense Bloom discussed while knowing I can always nab IDP production during the season as players and news break. So thanks.

I've been FFing for 20 years, but I'm new to deep dynasty this season. One of the things I started paying attention to while trying to "know my league" is the prospect of young IDP prospects being prematurely dropped by other teams. In my league I see a strong potential for that process involving IDPs who are a ways away from being useful. This weighed heavily in my thinking of going 8 Os and 1 D in my draft. This year's mid round RBs and WRs are deeper and more talented than they got credit for, imo. I don't know who the diamonds in the rough are, but I know I increased my chances of landing one.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I don't know who the diamonds in the rough are, but I know I increased my chances of landing one.

The shotgun approach has done wonders for me, although I prematurely drop some guys in the zest to get the flavor of the week. This comes back to my point about it being painful to carry more than 1 DT or more than 2 CBs. more open slots, more darts, more chance of hitting.

 

[P Boy]

I think part of the differences listed stem simply from owners not understanding fully the difference between the NFL draft and FF drafts. Some owners may see a player like Fasano go in the 2nd round to DAL and automatically assume that DAL has little intention of resigning Whitten. That could be a complete misinterpretation of the situation that there is really little information about right now, and is not very predictable. Parcels could be going to a 2 TE O which would diminish both Whitten & Fasano and would be in character for him as far as his philosophy towards football. Then you have a guy like Klopfenstein who also goes in the 2nd round, but to a team like STL who doesn't have any legit TEs on its roster and a new HC who loves using TEs in his offense. That makes Klopfenstein worth tons more at TE than Fasano, despite how closely they went in the NFL draft and how much anyone personally likes Fasano.

As far as CB, that is the last position I would ever burn a draft pick on. Money CBs are always on the WW, and the high draft picks are high draft picks because teams love their cover skills. That's what makes me hate them - I don't want the cover corner, I want his running mate on the other side. The stud CB is going to get tested for a while during his rookie season, but once the league figures out that he is a stud they'll throw the other way a lot more, reducing the cover CB's opportunities immensely. I don't want Champ Bailey - I want Darrent Williams. Williams is a gambler that is going to get tested a lot more than Bailey. I don't want the first round CB - I want the third round CB, and I'll pick him up after the season starts. The 1st rounder is a waste in that he'll either be a stud & useless in FF after a year or so, or he'll be a bust. That's a wasted pick - even if I make it in the 8th round of the rookie draft.

I also don't like burning picks on DTs. They usually don't score enough to waste a pick on in the draft when you can pick up a WW DT that can score withing 1.5 to 2 ppw as a stud DT. I make that mistake of ignoring that advice once recently by picking Wendell Bryant late in a FF draft - and could've used the pick better elsewhere. And I agree that the DEs are bunched so much that's it's hard to justify burning a decent FF draft pick on them.

That really leaves me with the O skills & LBs that I really look at in drafts. WRs are such a crap shoot that I really like to look at who falls to me and whether the risk/reward is worth it. Marshall is a guy whom I love the potential of, but I'd rather pick a Brandon Williams in front of him since Williams is going to a team with little talent at WR and a high profile QB whom they have to justify. SF will throw the ball quite a bit, being a bad team and a team who wants to try to showcase its #1 draft pick. That smells like opportunity to me. I like Marshall better physically because he's a beast - but I've learned that always doesn't pan out in FF. I'm starting to learn to ignore shear physical measureables and look for a guy who simply finds a way to catch the football, no matter what size he is or how many times he can rep 225 lbs - and then I search for the right opportunity to give the other guy a chance to shine. It worked for me with Steven Smith in CAR, and I sat on him while he was a stud KR and a mediocre WR. You could see he knew how to get the ball and how to use the open field. I see a lot of that in Williams, as well as the opportunity. So I pick Williams over Marshall, as much as I yearn to go for the huge risk/reward play.

The part I really loved about this year's draft is the pool of UDFAs. I took 2 in the middle/late rounds this year - Mike Bell & DonTrell Moore. I saw both guys play in college quite a bit and they are guys who just get the job done. I'd much rather have either of these guys than a smurf like Drew. Drew just doesn't have the size to survive in the NFL. On the other hand, both Bell & Moore went to ideal teams for their skill sets. Bell is a guy who is a hard runner, blocks pretty well, but has little to no hands. That doesn't matter to Shanahan, who doesn't require his RBs to be great catchers. I've got Dayne on my roster, so I protected myself with Bell rather than taking a player who may have been drafted a lot higher in the NFL draft, but won't get the opportunity to play for a running machine like Shanahan's Broncos. And right now there is no proven stud RB on DEN's roster, so Bell has a legit shot at making the team. I watched TD & Anderson blossom early on after being picked low - you watch the special teams play in the preseason and see if the kid is contributing or making a huge hit or 2. That's what catches Shanahan's eye & gets a young RB a shot - rookie RBs performing like studs on special teams. It happened with both TD & Anderson - in fact, TD was only installed as a regular in the backfield afetr a gigantic hit against SF in the preseason on a kick coverage team. That got TD his chance in the backfield, and he never looked back. Moore plays a lot like CuMar. He doesn't have the break away blinding speed that is so in vogue, but he has all the rest - smarts, vision, catches well, blocks, smart as a whip, and good height/weight ratio that isn't tied to too small of a height. He just gets the job done. He always falls forward. He always get an extra yard or two. And his opportunity is superb. Martin is at the very end of his career and is finally starting to get the injuries he has avoided for so long, and there are only a journeyman RB & two smurfs on the roster at RB besides Moore. I like that situation a lot - in fact a lot more than about half the RBs that went in the draft & were picked in FF drafts much higher.

Neither Bell nor Moore may amount to anything, but I burned a 5th & 6th round pick on them. Chances are that whomever I drafted there won't make my team anyhow, so I'll take the flyer on some talent with great opportunity more than solid talent that may have to spend 2-3 years before they get a shot because their opportunity is lousy. At the very worst I can cut-and-run early and not get caught in carrying potential on my roster for years without knowing for 3-4 years whether it will pan out. I can find someone else on the WW or in future drafts to fill those slots if Bell and/or Moore crap out - which odds say they will.

I also see the great value of O later in this draft. The D guys just went too high in the NFL draft, and similarly are going too high in FF drafts. I can always trade one of my O players for a good D player if they turn out to be anywhere near decent, but D players just don't have the same trade value in FF leagues. I'll roll the dice on O this year and hope to catch the SOD. And when I'm going O, I'm going to let opportunity make a significant factor, as much as raw athletic talent, for sure.

 

[coolnerd]

Why are Verron Hayes, Antonio Bryant and Ernest Wilford on the ADP list?

I am in a league which combines rookie and FA drafts into one off-season draft. I actually drafted Hayes in the 3rd round of this type of draft.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

first, its clear that we share a lot of the same philosophy in how to use rookie picks. Im really glad you started this discussion, because other than the holy grail of the minimal WR theory, there's very little out there on rookie draft strategy.

I'm starting to learn to ignore shear physical measureables and look for a guy who simply finds a way to catch the football, no matter what size he is or how many times he can rep 225 lbs - and then I search for the right opportunity to give the other guy a chance to shine.

Then you should LOVE Mike Hass

Neither Bell nor Moore may amount to anything, but I burned a 5th & 6th round pick on them. Chances are that whomever I drafted there won't make my team anyhow, so I'll take the flyer on some talent with great opportunity more than solid talent that may have to spend 2-3 years before they get a shot because their opportunity is lousy. At the very worst I can cut-and-run early and not get caught in carrying potential on my roster for years without knowing for 3-4 years whether it will pan out. I can find someone else on the WW or in future drafts to fill those slots if Bell and/or Moore crap out - which odds say they will.

I agree with your basic premise about immediate opportunity making a guy worth that flier regardless of your evaluation of his talent. Still, if I think a guy has "it", Im going for him regardless of the immediate opportunity. Talent finds opportunity, patient dynasty leaguers are rewarded, these things ring true every year. Bell just never impressed me, but he's worth a flier simply because of the organization he landed in. Same with Moore and his opportunity, but I was dismayed at how little burst he had all week at the shrine game. As Ive said in other threads, if I hear that his burst is coming back in jets camp, ill bump him up significantly.Ill stress once again the important point you brought up about taking offensive fliers late - you can cut them if they don't pan out and use that slot on another flier, or an IDP close to the one you would have taken anyway. Taking a guys like Bell, Howard, Moore, Andre Hall, Henderson - you hang on to them if they make the roster, and cut them if they don't. it's that easy. If you take a guy like Kiwanuka, you are forced to have him clog a roster spot for at least a year before you see anything, losing opportunity to use that slot to pick up a dashon polk or a scottie vines. I always reserve at least 3 or 4 roster slots for these kinds of pickups, and they are filled with rookie O fliers at this point in the year. Yes, sometimes i prematurely cut someone and regret it with this approach, but in the end I usually end up gaining more than I lose.

 

[P Boy]

I agree with your basic premise about immediate opportunity making a guy worth that flier regardless of your evaluation of his talent. Still, if I think a guy has "it", Im going for him regardless of the immediate opportunity. Talent finds opportunity, patient dynasty leaguers are rewarded, these things ring true every year. Bell just never impressed me, but he's worth a flier simply because of the organization he landed in. Same with Moore and his opportunity, but I was dismayed at how little burst he had all week at the shrine game. As Ive said in other threads, if I hear that his burst is coming back in jets camp, ill bump him up significantly.

I didn't want to get too much in deth on either Bell or Moore - no one here really cares who I drafted for my FF team. I brought them up more as a way that I look for an excuse to like a later round flyer provided the opportunity is there for the guy to get a legit chance at a job - and kind of went through my mind set on both guys. I agree & really pondered on Hass for a while, but he just was too much of a potential Chrebet clone for me, and I've got enough #3 WRs on my team right now. But I understand why you like him, and can see why you can see beyond the limited potential that I see in him. Find a reason to really like a guy's chances, and then get him with the mediocre picks, rather than being "safe" with guys who will only litter your roster for a few years and not contribute much. If you cut them in one year or less, they still contributed about as much as the "safe" guys and made your roster more flexible with the space available in a much shorter time.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Find a reason to really like a guy's chances, and then get him with the mediocre picks, rather than being "safe" with guys who will only litter your roster for a few years and not contribute much.

 

[P Boy]

Forgot to add the real bonus of grabbing those kinds of guys with the late middle to late round picks - if you cut them because they're lousy, no one really notices, but if they hit on the rare occassion as being a very good FF player, the crowing & bragging rights in the league is worth its weight in gold. It can last years after the player's career has ended.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Forgot to add the real bonus of grabbing those kinds of guys with the late middle to late round picks - if you cut them because they're lousy, no one really notices, but if they hit on the rare occassion as being a very good FF player, the crowing & bragging rights in the league is worth its weight in gold. It can last years after the player's career has ended.

And often if you cut them because theyre lousy, find out later that youre wrong, theyre still sitting on the waiver wire. just having all of these guys on your radar is a huge advantage.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Small hijack better explored in the IDP forum, but...

As far as CB, that is the last position I would ever burn a draft pick on. Money CBs are always on the WW, and the high draft picks are high draft picks because teams love their cover skills. That's what makes me hate them - I don't want the cover corner, I want his running mate on the other side. The stud CB is going to get tested for a while during his rookie season, but once the league figures out that he is a stud they'll throw the other way a lot more, reducing the cover CB's opportunities immensely. I don't want Champ Bailey - I want Darrent Williams. Williams is a gambler that is going to get tested a lot more than Bailey. I don't want the first round CB - I want the third round CB, and I'll pick him up after the season starts. The 1st rounder is a waste in that he'll either be a stud & useless in FF after a year or so, or he'll be a bust. That's a wasted pick - even if I make it in the 8th round of the rookie draft.

I used to think exactly like this, PB, but now I think it's flawed. Stud CBs rock. The top 10 CBs are right there in total points with LBs 5-15. Big value. Charles Tillman and Terrence McGee were not just CB 1-2 last year, they were DB 1-2 (in standard scoring systems). We can debate how those two fit your thinking, but I think McGee is a stud with or without Clements around. From there it's hard to argue with the results. CBs 3-7, who were all in the top 10, making 6 of the top 10 DBs CBs. They were Barber, Bailey, Gamble, Hall and Law-- all stud CBs, not the other guy getting attacked more. Moving through the top 36 (considering 12 teamers starting 3) we find a combination of your non stud CBs with 11 stud CBs. That's 17 of the top 36 DBs who were CBs, and over half of them were their teams stud CB. This position is being undervalued while the old emphasis on SSes is not holding water like it used to. I picked up Cromartie (possible stud CB) in the 6th while Huff and Whitner (probably future FSes) went in the 2nd and early 3rd. I think Cromartie has equal long term value and the added bonus of rookie CB value this year. I think he was solid value there, and I sure don't feel like I wasted the pick.

I've always grabbed good safeties while LBs were being drafted, but last year mine got hurt (Rodney and Madieu). I found Tillman and McGee on waivers (redraft), and I'm now a believer in CBs, stud CBs, rookie CBs, other guy CBs-- just have to get the right ones from whatever category. They give safeties a run for their IDP scoring money and are big value-- the studs being the safer play, better known commodity.

 

[P Boy]

I used to think exactly like this, PB, but now I think it's flawed. Stud CBs rock. The top 10 CBs are right there in total points with LBs 5-15. Big value. Charles Tillman and Terrence McGee were not just CB 1-2 last year, they were DB 1-2 (in standard scoring systems). We can debate how those two fit your thinking, but I think McGee is a stud with or without Clements around. From there it's hard to argue with the results. CBs 3-7, who were all in the top 10, making 6 of the top 10 DBs CBs. They were Barber, Bailey, Gamble, Hall and Law-- all stud CBs, not the other guy getting attacked more. Moving through the top 36 (considering 12 teamers starting 3) we find a combination of your non stud CBs with 11 stud CBs. That's 17 of the top 36 DBs who were CBs, and over half of them were their teams stud CB. This position is being undervalued while the old emphasis on SSes is not holding water like it used to.

I picked up Cromartie (possible stud CB) in the 6th while Huff and Whitner (probably future FSes) went in the 2nd and early 3rd. I think Cromartie has equal long term value and the added bonus of rookie CB value this year. I think he was solid value there, and I sure don't feel like I wasted the pick.

I've always grabbed good safeties while LBs were being drafted, but last year mine got hurt (Rodney and Madieu). I found Tillman and McGee on waivers (redraft), and I'm now a believer in CBs, stud CBs, rookie CBs, other guy CBs-- just have to get the right ones from whatever category. They give safeties a run for their IDP scoring money and are big value-- the studs being the safer play, better known commodity.

You're making a strong argument. I'll have to go back a few years & take a look at your proposal.

 

[Chaos Commish]

You're making a strong argument. I'll have to go back a few years & take a look at your proposal.

If last year turns out to be an anomoly it could still be a trend!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I used to think exactly like this, PB, but now I think it's flawed. Stud CBs rock. The top 10 CBs are right there in total points with LBs 5-15. Big value. Charles Tillman and Terrence McGee were not just CB 1-2 last year, they were DB 1-2 (in standard scoring systems).

[/snip]

I've always grabbed good safeties while LBs were being drafted, but last year mine got hurt (Rodney and Madieu). I found Tillman and McGee on waivers (redraft), and I'm now a believer in CBs, stud CBs, rookie CBs, other guy CBs-- just have to get the right ones from whatever category. They give safeties a run for their IDP scoring money and are big value-- the studs being the safer play, better known commodity.

most important line bolded.

 

[DeCleater]

(TOY) Thread of the Year potential right here.

I agree with Bloom and Pony Boy's approach to late round flyers to a point. I do the same thing. But how long do you keep such players. I to am a sucker for upside, and usually will give the player a year on the practice squad just to see if there is any chance he can become at least a part-time starter. As for UDFA's I don't see them ever getting a shot. I thought Ernest Graham from Florida had as much talent as any back coming out of college and he went undrafted and signed with Tampa. I drafted him in the last round in TOCOL and was sure he would get a shot at the starting RB position. He never did and then they drafted Cadillac. There have been UDFA RB's that did get a shot but they are like needles in the haystack, at what point do you draft a productive IDP instead. I guess everyone has to evaluate thier own team and make that call.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I found Tillman and McGee on waivers (redraft), and I'm now a believer in CBs...

most important line bolded.

The bad news is I dropped Tillman after a few weeks to cover byes and injured QBs! :( Still I did nicely with Ken Lucas and Ike Taylor-- two more examples of CBs putting up very startable numbers.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

(TOY) Thread of the Year potential right here.

I agree with Bloom and Pony Boy's approach to late round flyers to a point. I do the same thing. But how long do you keep such players. I to am a sucker for upside, and usually will give the player a year on the practice squad just to see if there is any chance he can become at least a part-time starter. As for UDFA's I don't see them ever getting a shot. I thought Ernest Graham from Florida had as much talent as any back coming out of college and he went undrafted and signed with Tampa. I drafted him in the last round in TOCOL and was sure he would get a shot at the starting RB position. He never did and then they drafted Cadillac. There have been UDFA RB's that did get a shot but they are like needles in the haystack, at what point do you draft a productive IDP instead. I guess everyone has to evaluate thier own team and make that call.

I had a man-crush on Graham for a long time. Just didn't work out.Edited to add: ...yet.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm hoping that EBF shows up in this thread as I believe that his style is much more evenly focused on both offense and defense in the draft.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

(TOY) Thread of the Year potential right here.

I agree with Bloom and Pony Boy's approach to late round flyers to a point. I do the same thing. But how long do you keep such players. I to am a sucker for upside, and usually will give the player a year on the practice squad just to see if there is any chance he can become at least a part-time starter. As for UDFA's I don't see them ever getting a shot. I thought Ernest Graham from Florida had as much talent as any back coming out of college and he went undrafted and signed with Tampa. I drafted him in the last round in TOCOL and was sure he would get a shot at the starting RB position. He never did and then they drafted Cadillac. There have been UDFA RB's that did get a shot but they are like needles in the haystack, at what point do you draft a productive IDP instead. I guess everyone has to evaluate thier own team and make that call.

I wouldnt count UDFAs out so quickly, we've seen two UDFA RBs crack the starting lineup (Gado and Parker), with one sticking (Parker), and one with a continuing shot at the job (Gado). It should be added that these guys weren't even starters in college.

 

[P Boy]

I wouldnt count UDFAs out so quickly, we've seen two UDFA RBs crack the starting lineup (Gado and Parker), with one sticking (Parker), and one with a continuing shot at the job (Gado). It should be added that these guys weren't even starters in college.

Take the remarks with a grain of salt. D-C just can't manage to pick the right UDFAs.