Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I really liked Bloom’s QB tiers for a variety of reasons. Basically you could hand that to just about anyone off the street and they could probably navigate thru a draft with it no problem. Of course I don’t agree with all of it so I wanted to take a look at something I am sure many of you are looking at as well.
I have read David Dodd’s perfect draft and he encourages you to stay away from QBs too early in the draft, but when guys like Brees have been meeting expectations consistently the past few years I think it is not a stretch to want to draft 4,000+yds and 25+ TDs in the 2n or 3rd round…that’s serious points to rely on. Still, it does mean you could slip in other areas, however that is why you study so you get 4th round production form the WR3 you grab in the 8th or 9th round.
This isn’t about Dodds being right or wrong as there are no wrong answers but when you look at his projections it seems very clearly that there is a large band of QBs that are going to be available after the first 7-9 come off the board. But let’s look at the top QBs quickly and I will simply add my .02 to what most already know about these guys, then I want to jump to a much more grey area but one that could hold the keys to your draft and allow you to hammer away at RB/WR and even a top TE early.
I hate to break the news to some and this has more to do with redraft than Dynasty, but the people who are so wrapped up in Dynasty sometimes lose focus of players real production for the season at hand. I point to Terrell Owens the last 3 years who has not been worth a lot in terms of Dynasty because he is old and doesn’t bring much in trade value yet he has been a top10 WR including back to back 2nd place finishes in 2006 and 2007 and scored 38 TDs over that span. You see how skewed it becomes as everyone wants the youngest up and coming talent, right or wrong that is how it works. But it really messes folks up in redrafts with that type of thinking.
So I want to go thru the top8 or 9 QBs rather quickly and I use part of Bloom’s article as the basis for some of this, again I thought it was a great article, just a few too many tiers for me.
Tom Brady: Will take a couple weeks to get it together but he has a soft schedule and still no real threat in the running game to really steal away his chances. Taylor hasn’t rushed for double digit TDs since the year 2000…Brady has a trio of very talented WRs, no reason to expect less than 30 TDs out of him.
Drew Brees: My only concern is his WRs health. At some point he is going to run out of bodies to throw it to.
Peyton Manning: Not a guy I am itching to grab. New management sort of speak and I hear the food isn’t quite as good.
That was tier 1 sort of speak. The next 6 guys all have different things that are good and bad.
Aaron Rodgers: I am stunned everyone is ready to hitch the wagon to this guy. He had 1 healthy productive season and he is penciled in to finish top 5 again? Not a chance he takes a step back? Just a little? C’mon now, you gotta be brighter than that. The top 3 have years on their resumes, this guy did it once, relax a little with the Rodgers hype. I am on record that he won’t land top5 again this year.
Donovan McNabb: Last year he started 16 games…the last time he did that was 2003. They drafted a WR, and a 2nd/3rd tier RB for the RB2 role and people are gung ho ready to roll with McNabb. Again, I don’t see the reason to reach for him.
Phillip Rivers: Put me on record that he will not finish close to what he did a year ago. Too much talent at RB, and the Chargers have to get back to running the football. Look for at least 50 more carries and 50 less passes form San Diego in 2009. Where will that land Rivers? 4,000 yds and 34 TDs, you are chasing last years numbers.
Kurt Warner: No way he starts he all 16 games. Another one of those guys that has never been able to finish an entire season year in and year out, and now at the age of 37/38 we are ready to draft him in the 3rd or 4th round?
Tony Romo: Now I do like him despite TO leaving. They will run the ball but I think 25+TDs is well within the reach when you factor in Jason Witten, and talented WRs even if they are not consistent all the time and in some cases a bit unproven. Look for a good dose of Felix and MB III but also look for them to get a lot of catches as well. This is not going to be a power running team, the OL simply is not built for that.
Jay Cutler: I’m optimistic till the weather turns bitter in Chicago. I could see him having a great year and then disappear down the stretch. Not sold on the WRs either.
OK, those top 9 are interesting and I have a couple that I am looking at but the next 15 QBs on the board seem to have projections where if you add or subtract a couple TDs here and there you have a very interchangeable jigsaw puzzle. And using Dodd’s projections I could have slid Romo and Cutler in here but they have big name recognition at this point so why pretend they will be a bargain, they won’t.
Garrard, Big Ben, Schaub, Palmer, Ryan, Hass, Cassel, Eli, Edwards, Flacco, Campbell, Penny, Hill, Orton, and Delhomme. Just use this as one big tier and I will tell you what I think is a sound idea for those that wait until round 6 or later to start their QB hunt, in fact maybe even wait till 8 or 9 but you don’t want to end up with certain combos.
What I look for with this group is simple…1 QB who is consistent even if it is 6-10 points lower than I know Brady or Brees will likely be, and another guy that isn’t consistent but is capable of having some big games. Those guys are usually younger and sometimes a little unproven.
So within this group you have the old reliable like Palmer, Hass, Eli, Penny, and Delhomme. You can disagree but those guys have been in the league awhile and you know pretty much what you are going to get. Rather than split hairs about which is better than the other just make a tier of guys you think are decent vets. I might even put Big Ben in this group.
The other group is made up of guys that either have a lot less starting years or are somewhat unknown. Matt Ryan is interesting but we don’t really know what he will be like in year 2. Is there room for Ryan on MOP’s team? Sure but I don’t really want to pair him with Joe Flacco if I can help it. I would much rather have Ryan and maybe Jake Delhomme who is being sold pretty short this year.
Some combos that I think would be fine…Garrard/Palmer, Schaub/Delhomme, Cassel/Big Ben…we can run them all night but my point is take a guy with upside and a guy that you know will produce even if on a lesser level.
Let’s say the team you are facing has Tom Brady and you have Ryan and Hass. What is the point of starting Hasselbeck? Why not swing for the fences a bit and see if Ryan can have one of those breakout games if the match up can allow it? Hass will net you 200-220 yds and maybe 1 TD…you know you are in the hole 10 points before you blink. And you can run this scenario till the cows come home with different top QBs vs the guys in that 10-24 range.
So I do agree with Dodds that you can wait on QB but I think the right combo is crucial. A combo of 2 young unproven QBs in that group is going to be headaches the same way a Hass/Delhomme combo could leave you very short during the season when you need them most against a top3 or top5 proven QB.
I'd like to hear some combos you are looking to lock up and how you plan on getting them.
Cheers everyone
I have read David Dodd’s perfect draft and he encourages you to stay away from QBs too early in the draft, but when guys like Brees have been meeting expectations consistently the past few years I think it is not a stretch to want to draft 4,000+yds and 25+ TDs in the 2n or 3rd round…that’s serious points to rely on. Still, it does mean you could slip in other areas, however that is why you study so you get 4th round production form the WR3 you grab in the 8th or 9th round.
This isn’t about Dodds being right or wrong as there are no wrong answers but when you look at his projections it seems very clearly that there is a large band of QBs that are going to be available after the first 7-9 come off the board. But let’s look at the top QBs quickly and I will simply add my .02 to what most already know about these guys, then I want to jump to a much more grey area but one that could hold the keys to your draft and allow you to hammer away at RB/WR and even a top TE early.
I hate to break the news to some and this has more to do with redraft than Dynasty, but the people who are so wrapped up in Dynasty sometimes lose focus of players real production for the season at hand. I point to Terrell Owens the last 3 years who has not been worth a lot in terms of Dynasty because he is old and doesn’t bring much in trade value yet he has been a top10 WR including back to back 2nd place finishes in 2006 and 2007 and scored 38 TDs over that span. You see how skewed it becomes as everyone wants the youngest up and coming talent, right or wrong that is how it works. But it really messes folks up in redrafts with that type of thinking.
So I want to go thru the top8 or 9 QBs rather quickly and I use part of Bloom’s article as the basis for some of this, again I thought it was a great article, just a few too many tiers for me.
Tom Brady: Will take a couple weeks to get it together but he has a soft schedule and still no real threat in the running game to really steal away his chances. Taylor hasn’t rushed for double digit TDs since the year 2000…Brady has a trio of very talented WRs, no reason to expect less than 30 TDs out of him.
Drew Brees: My only concern is his WRs health. At some point he is going to run out of bodies to throw it to.
Peyton Manning: Not a guy I am itching to grab. New management sort of speak and I hear the food isn’t quite as good.
That was tier 1 sort of speak. The next 6 guys all have different things that are good and bad.
Aaron Rodgers: I am stunned everyone is ready to hitch the wagon to this guy. He had 1 healthy productive season and he is penciled in to finish top 5 again? Not a chance he takes a step back? Just a little? C’mon now, you gotta be brighter than that. The top 3 have years on their resumes, this guy did it once, relax a little with the Rodgers hype. I am on record that he won’t land top5 again this year.
Donovan McNabb: Last year he started 16 games…the last time he did that was 2003. They drafted a WR, and a 2nd/3rd tier RB for the RB2 role and people are gung ho ready to roll with McNabb. Again, I don’t see the reason to reach for him.
Phillip Rivers: Put me on record that he will not finish close to what he did a year ago. Too much talent at RB, and the Chargers have to get back to running the football. Look for at least 50 more carries and 50 less passes form San Diego in 2009. Where will that land Rivers? 4,000 yds and 34 TDs, you are chasing last years numbers.
Kurt Warner: No way he starts he all 16 games. Another one of those guys that has never been able to finish an entire season year in and year out, and now at the age of 37/38 we are ready to draft him in the 3rd or 4th round?
Tony Romo: Now I do like him despite TO leaving. They will run the ball but I think 25+TDs is well within the reach when you factor in Jason Witten, and talented WRs even if they are not consistent all the time and in some cases a bit unproven. Look for a good dose of Felix and MB III but also look for them to get a lot of catches as well. This is not going to be a power running team, the OL simply is not built for that.
Jay Cutler: I’m optimistic till the weather turns bitter in Chicago. I could see him having a great year and then disappear down the stretch. Not sold on the WRs either.
OK, those top 9 are interesting and I have a couple that I am looking at but the next 15 QBs on the board seem to have projections where if you add or subtract a couple TDs here and there you have a very interchangeable jigsaw puzzle. And using Dodd’s projections I could have slid Romo and Cutler in here but they have big name recognition at this point so why pretend they will be a bargain, they won’t.
Garrard, Big Ben, Schaub, Palmer, Ryan, Hass, Cassel, Eli, Edwards, Flacco, Campbell, Penny, Hill, Orton, and Delhomme. Just use this as one big tier and I will tell you what I think is a sound idea for those that wait until round 6 or later to start their QB hunt, in fact maybe even wait till 8 or 9 but you don’t want to end up with certain combos.
What I look for with this group is simple…1 QB who is consistent even if it is 6-10 points lower than I know Brady or Brees will likely be, and another guy that isn’t consistent but is capable of having some big games. Those guys are usually younger and sometimes a little unproven.
So within this group you have the old reliable like Palmer, Hass, Eli, Penny, and Delhomme. You can disagree but those guys have been in the league awhile and you know pretty much what you are going to get. Rather than split hairs about which is better than the other just make a tier of guys you think are decent vets. I might even put Big Ben in this group.
The other group is made up of guys that either have a lot less starting years or are somewhat unknown. Matt Ryan is interesting but we don’t really know what he will be like in year 2. Is there room for Ryan on MOP’s team? Sure but I don’t really want to pair him with Joe Flacco if I can help it. I would much rather have Ryan and maybe Jake Delhomme who is being sold pretty short this year.
Some combos that I think would be fine…Garrard/Palmer, Schaub/Delhomme, Cassel/Big Ben…we can run them all night but my point is take a guy with upside and a guy that you know will produce even if on a lesser level.
Let’s say the team you are facing has Tom Brady and you have Ryan and Hass. What is the point of starting Hasselbeck? Why not swing for the fences a bit and see if Ryan can have one of those breakout games if the match up can allow it? Hass will net you 200-220 yds and maybe 1 TD…you know you are in the hole 10 points before you blink. And you can run this scenario till the cows come home with different top QBs vs the guys in that 10-24 range.
So I do agree with Dodds that you can wait on QB but I think the right combo is crucial. A combo of 2 young unproven QBs in that group is going to be headaches the same way a Hass/Delhomme combo could leave you very short during the season when you need them most against a top3 or top5 proven QB.
I'd like to hear some combos you are looking to lock up and how you plan on getting them.
Cheers everyone
