St Louis
1(2) Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
2(35) Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
3(66) Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU
4(103) Macho Harris, CB, Virginia Tech
5(137) Travis Beckum, TE, Wisconsin
6(176) Arian Foster, RB, Tennessee
7(211) Brian Hoyer, QB, Michigan State
hey bloom,
i advocate a LT with 1.02... on the rams board i frequent, many/some want to roll the dice with barron at LT (dangerous, imo, given the lack of clarity on his long-term contract status)... which would clear the decks for another positional selection than the increasingly entrenched & consensus LT pick (curry, crabtree, stafford?)...
i wouldn't be surprised if both LTs were available, that they take monroe... lower ceiling, but probably a higher floor, more polished & pro-ready... a poster there (see above) excerpted some disturbing scouting reports on both LTs by independent scout drew boylehart, but it seems to be an outlier opinion...
who do monroe & smith remind you of? another poster i respect there thought that both these guys aren't necessarily special prospects, RELATIVE TO RECENT DRAFTS... said about monroe, not close to joe thomas or jake long, & maybe not even as good as fellow cav alum 'brick ferguson (who has probably been less than a raging success)... people like mayock & kirwan seem to be comfortable with them as top 5 talents, casserly didn't think either was top 10...
i'm sure "top 2 overall good" means different things in different years, but scouts seem to be divided whether they belong in this neighborhood... even the biggest curry/crabtree advocates would have to say that LT could be viewed as big need, especially if barron's situation is murky internally (do they want to re-up, at what expense?)... but even the biggest LT proponents wouldn't want to go in that direction if it is a ridiculous positional reach (curry, crabtree & stafford could all have pro bowl ability at big need positions, as well)... if monroe & smith are just marginal, that could be a huge mistake (did the raiders pass on fitzgerald for gallery?)...
not trying to put too fine a point on one pick, but second overall very important, both to the rams, of course, but also because the draft could branch off in many directions from there...
what are the chances, in your estimation, monroe & smith are busts or just average (the latter would still be a big disappointment picking that high, & would wreak havoc on their cap), OR that they are better than average or even pro bowl caliber... it would be realistic to EXPECT one of the best in their generation-type LTs (pace, ogden, jones) just because it is such a high pick, but i think it is an important question to ask how close (or far away, as the case may be) they are, to those positional gold standards & excellence benchmarks...
the rams should be so lucky to get nicks at the 2.3... some teams might be concerned about his ballooning weight between combine & pro day, which could increase the chance his stock tumbles that far... on the other hand, other teams might write it off to inability to work out, & view his draft status more within the context of his overall body of work, which would cause his stock to surge... since it takes just one team to like him to go relatively high, & a multiple of teams to not like him enough for him to drop, i think liklihood is he doesn't see the 2nd round... but the rams could get a robiskie-type, possibly...
most observers seem to think, if LT is 1st pick, that LB or WR next most likely, & this aligns... if lauranaitis is there (about 50% chance? i see more mocks than not like yours, where he is already gone, but LBs that don't test well can drop... see poluzsny), that could be a possiblity...
you hit on most of the need areas other than LT & WR after round 2... LB, RB, QB, CB... not sure about TE, they have mcmichael & just signed blocking TE bajema... not familiar with your guy, but maybe he presents compelling value there...
i would be very surprised if the draft unfolds like this, & no DL are taken... for a few reasons... they desperately need youth, talent & depth in the front seven, & while they may not be lacking in starters on DL as much as LB (STL may have only one assured starter in spoon... tino iffy, probably no starter quality SLB on roster, though one could be gotten there later, & chrsi draft probably better fit as backup), it is arguably a more important position... spagnuolo came from eagles, where LB weren't prioritized as much... & from NYG, where pass rushers were prized...
at DE, long is last year's #2 overall & has very bright future, but little probably on his last legs... james hall is approaching his twilight years & isn't that great, & adeyanju is marginal & better against the run...
as noted immediately above, the giants were pass rushing DE-addicts... i think generating a withering pass rush is an integral part of spag's scheme... though, like his mentor jim johnson, he might find ways to generate it from positions other than DL... he may have to, if he is going to be adaptable to the strengths & weaknesses of the roster, as it is presently constituted...
at DT, carriker may be playing out of position, wasn't that stout against the run & contributed to their historically poor defense as a franchise... he was injured, but he got hurt his rookie year, too (albeit in last game)... ryan has exceeded expectations given where he was drafted, but he partly falls guilty by the same verdict of the defense's brutal showing in 2008... jim thomas in a recent chat said that they have no interest in re-signing glover, & he is expected to retire... i kind of expect them to draft at least two DL, hopefully a pass rushing DE & a physical, NFC-east type of run stuffing DT, an answer to smashmouth team strengths, game plans & personell groupings...
in short, a pass rush will make the young & still developing secondary better... & better interior DL rotation wil make the LBs better...
FORCE MULTIPLIER positions, par excellance!
not sure what DEs would be avail in rounds 2-3, but i've heard that they might be sniffing around local product, mizzou DT hood, & wouldn't be stunned at all by DL selection as high as second round...
an interesting kill two birds with one stone type solution might be to get guy like DE-OLB tweener connor barwin... he seems to be athletic enough to play SLB (could he cover?), & could help the DL with the pass rush from LB position... might even be aligned as a DE on obvious pass situations, ala how kiwanuka was used at times by spags?
you are right, they need all the other positions, too...
to many holes, not enough picks... several year rebuild (the "overnight" turnarounds by MIA & ATL last year, notwithstanding)...
that said, i do think devaney & spagnuolo have the franchise headed in the right direction, after being run into the ground by deposed former front office & coaching staffs... they should be a much better team in 2010, with the infusion of talent from stringing together a (hopefully) few good free agency cycles & draft classes... they are off to a good start in free agency, & are positioned to get a few good players & some depth in the '09 draft...
great job on all the teams... i appreciate the fact that you employ a birds-eye view of the entire league, & give a lot of thought to finding good alignments & intersections of BPA & team need... SO HARD to project much beyond two rounds, for myself, so i greatly admire & respect the effort...