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Bobby Wagner (1 Viewer)

LittlePhatty

Footballguy
I haven't been able to watch the games. Is there any reason for his slow fantasy start, and should owners be concerned going forward?

 

Kool-Aid Larry

Footballguy
well, by consulting 'snap, crackle, and more SNAPS!! ' I can see that sea faced a league low 52 snaps in week 1, and he still managed to get in on 8 tackles, so that's not bad.

had he faced 25% more snaps, for a league average 65, he might've ended up with a 5+5 line.

similarly, it looks like sea faced a league low 54 snaps in week 2, in a game where sf only completed 13 passes and ran the ball 20x, for a pitiful 33 tackle opps.

wagner led the team with 7 total tackles, although 5 were assists because of their crazy stat crew in sea, but had tackle opps come up 50% to league average, he might have again been in on 10 total tackles on the day, which is p good.

the bottom line is he's a victim of his situation -- sea defense is too good.

and I don't want to upset you, but look how roach did against the jags this past week..........

 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Yup. With Avril, Clemons and Browner soon to be close to full strength and Irvin on the verge of returning, the league's lowest tackle opportunity through two games is a trend that's likely to continue.

From today's RTD...

Cliff Avril returned to a part time role and looked good. Chris Clemons is on the verge of returning, Bruce Irvin will come off suspension shortly. Brandon Browner has missed the first two games with injury. Without those players, Seattle has restricted themselves to a well below average 39.5 tackle opportunities per game. That, plus the assist-heavy scoring in Seattle, doesn't bode well for the tackle upside of Bobby Wagner this year. That trend isn't likely to improve against Jacksonville at home this week. There's some big play upside with Wagner, but I'd try to move him in redraft leagues. Ray Lewis bucked a horrid tackle opportunity trend in Baltimore at times, but it's hard to bet on any Seattle defender doing the same.

 

munygon2

Footballguy
Great info - I've been trying to decide on dropping him for more upside players like Alec Ogletree. This helps.

 

Kool-Aid Larry

Footballguy
the only bright side is he was in a somewhat similar situation last year, too.

playoffs - 55 and 59 snaps

wk 17 - 64

wk 16 - 55

wk 15 - 48 (of 68)

wk 14 - 45 (of 60)

wk 13 - 61

wk 12 - 59

in these 8 games he averages 56 snaps and totals 51/25 tackles with 5 pd, 4 picks and a sack

this is a little skewed due to only 3 home games in a small sample, but if you double that for a 16 game season averaging only 56 snaps you come up with 102/50 tackles, 10 pd, 8 picks, and 2 sacks

those numbers are kuechlyesque

jene -- do you happen to have a handy list of tackle opps for last year to see where sea ranked?

I'm guessing bottom 5

I just checked, and it looks like they were actually just a little below average in completions against last year, but were 2nd lowest in the league in rushes faced at 368, with the lowest being 363.

more edits: to put these snap numbers in perspective, every week in 2012 there was only maybe 1 or 2 teams that faced fewer than 55 snaps on defense.

 
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jbz

Footballguy
I stuck with Bobby despite the poor match up for tackle opps this past weekend and it paid off. Still low number of snaps again. Probably should look to move on at this rate...

 
He is a match up play because Seattle's scorekeeper does not give him solo tackles at home (league I am in only awards points for solo tackles) Great match up this week @Houston.

 
Practiced in full today. Seattle practices tomorrow as well since they play Monday night. He won't get screwed by Seattle's stat crew since he is on the road @STL. He's fallen off the IDP radar but could be a nice bye week fill in if he's a full go this week.

 

Kool-Aid Larry

Footballguy
Practiced in full today. Seattle practices tomorrow as well since they play Monday night. He won't get screwed by Seattle's stat crew since he is on the road @STL. He's fallen off the IDP radar but could be a nice bye week fill in if he's a full go this week.
yeah, he'll get screwed by stl stat crew

 
On average the STL stat crew gives out the second most solo tackles per game of all NFL teams. Seattle gives out the least solo tackles per game and it's not even close.

 
They don't like to give out assists. Our league gives 1 point for a solo and zero for an assist. It is incredibly annoying to set match ups based completely on the home scorekeeper.

 

Louche

Footballguy
He's been amazing the last part of the season. At least in real life football. It was brought up yesterday during the game that the formula from OCs to try and beat Seattle seems to be to go with a run-heavy gameplan. If so that would be a big plus for Wagner, Chancellor and Thomas III going into next season. One of the big negatives with Seattle IDPs has been that their defense is simply too strong and the low volume has weakened the potential for top IDP production.

 

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