Bojang's 2019 Pre-Draft Tiers (1 Viewer)

[Bojang0301]

2018 Pre-Draft

2018 Post Draft

2018 Review/Lessons

I feel pretty comfortable with the process I was starting last year. The players that linger on my mind as misses/potential misses/not trusting the process are James Washington, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones, and Keke Coutee. I have re-calibrated my process on WR's after ZWK pointed out the emphasis on BMI for WR's (~26 being a threshold) and I'm not sure if it was him or someone else I follow talking about 28% Dominator (Final Season) being a strong threshold for WR's entering the league and having top 24 seasons throughout their career. Overall, I was pleased with my ranking process but will be doing some adjusting for my draft process this year (although I have to admit I am far less invested into this class than 2018).

2019 Overview

While I'm not a Waldman fan, I have to agree with him about this class being close to 30 RB's deep that could have some level of NFL success. They have been difficult to differentiate and I am now taking into account breakout age for RB's which has adjusted some of the tiers. I am still a little unsure how much emphasis I should put on it and it may cause someone like Benny Snell who has a fantastic BO Age in the SEC but below average workout and receiving metrics to possibly be too low if I need to adjust. I think this is a great year to trade down if you're able to. I will say that this class has a lot of boom/bust potential. There are some safe WR's and TE's at the top, everything else is a bit of a crap shoot. 

QB

Tier 1: K. Murray,

Tier 2: D. Haskins

Tier 3: D. Lock, W. Grier

Tier 4: D. Jones, B. Rypien

RB

Tier 1: D. Henderson

Tier 2: Tr. Williams, J. Hill, M. Sanders, R. Anderson*, M. Weber

Tier 3: M. Gaskins, D. Montgomery, T. Homer, D. Crockett, J. Jacobs*

Tier 4: B. Snell, A. Barnes, R. Armstead, B. Love*, A. Mattison, Q. Ollison, D. Ozigbo, D. Hall, D. Thompson, D. Harris, Dex Williams,

Tier 5: Nico Evans, D. Singletary, Lex Thomas, J. Williams, K. Whyte, Ty Johnson, T. Pollard

WR

Tier 1: N. Harry, A. Brown

Tier 2: H. Butler, D. Metcalf, G. Jennings, E. Hall, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside*, D. Samuel, A. Isabella, A. Dulin

Tier 3: M. Boykin, P. Campbell, K. Harmon, D. Mitchell, D. Stills*, S. Morgan, Scott Miller, G. Dortch, K. Doss, J. Ferguson

Tier 4: Marquise Brown*, T. McLaurin, Jaylen Smith, D. Slayton, T. Fulgham, Alex Wesley, C. Thompson, Preston Williams, Keesean Johnson, J. Meyers, E. Butler, A. Ratliff-Williams, D. Willis, J. Hurd*,  J. Ursua

TE

Tier 1: N. Fant, T.J. Hockenson

Tier 2: C. Wilson, J. Oliver, K. Warring, I.Smith, F. Moreau, D. Parham

Tier 3: D. Knox, D. Sample, A. Mack, J. Sternberger

*Notates injured in pre-draft process

 

[Maven25]

Thanks for sharing, I find my rankings align pretty well with yours.  A couple guys popping up here that I need to look into more:

Gary Jennings, Ashton Dulin

 

[Ilov80s]

Can’t say I disagree much. I don’t even know what to do with the RBs other than just wait and see where they end up.

 

[Interseptopus]

some bold takes here. I like it. I may not agree on all right now but I appreciate someone not just following the sheep.

My tiers line up pretty well with yours for the most part

 

[Zyphros]

What’s the difference between Montgomery and Trayveon to you?  Just having Montgomery in that 3rd tier with those other RBs just doesn’t look right, same with Jacobs, just surrounded by guys projected to be 5th round picks at best.  

Same goes for Parris Campbell and Kelvin Harmon, those 2 just don’t seem to belong among the others you’ve listed in the same tier.  

Care to explain those 4 guys for me? 

 

[travdogg]

I really appreciate the rankings. I disagree with a lot of it, but I welcome a different viewpoint, as long as it isn't based off 7 year old tweets.

Some questions:

T. Williams, Hill, and Weber in tier 2? What stands out about them to you? 

Why so down on Jacobs, Love, and especially Singletary? 

Not a Jordan Scarlett fan? 

Why so down on Hollywood Brown? I mean, I disagree with people who have him at #1, but outside the top-20? To a lesser extent, Terry McLaurin outside the top-20 also stands out, especially when compared to Emmanuel Hall.

Not a Diontae Johnson fan? 

 

[Bojang0301]

What’s the difference between Montgomery and Trayveon to you?  Just having Montgomery in that 3rd tier with those other RBs just doesn’t look right, same with Jacobs, just surrounded by guys projected to be 5th round picks at best.  

Same goes for Parris Campbell and Kelvin Harmon, those 2 just don’t seem to belong among the others you’ve listed in the same tier.  

Care to explain those 4 guys for me? 

As far as Montgomery and Williams it boils down to speed score, 40 time and YPC. YPC doesn’t factor in very heavily but it did cause some segregation. 6.5 YPC in the SEC vs 4.7 YPC in the Big 12 says something I think. Based on draft capital and landing spot I probably won’t hesitate to shuffle around people in tier 2/3 and would also consider moving Henderson if he ended up behind Zeke or Barkley or something dumb like that. I’m trying to remove emotional ties out of the equation. Henderson ended up at the top after hearing 20% of his snaps he was split out wide. Originally tier 1 was tier 2 with Henderson. High, and unfortunate, probability Henderson’s OC isn’t as bold in the NFL. Don’t know if that fully answers your question on that but safe to say they really aren’t that far off despite the tier drop. 

Campbell and Harmon are a little easier to answer for me. Campbell I was originally very high on but in trying to remove personal feelings from the equation (and maybe an over correction, we shall see) I can’t put him in tier 2 with the red flags I see. As I said 28% dominator is sort of a baseline threshold as is 20.8 breakout age. He’s within a margin for error on breakout but his final season dominator was 23.5% and I also have a note on him that his yard per target was ~4.5. No WR in the NFL had a mark that low last year. I think his upside could be as high as what DJ Moore is right now. I just have some pause before the draft. Harmon is within a margin of error for BO Age as well but it’s enough combined with speed score, 40 to keep him down a tier. Although I do almost wonder if him, Deebo, Dulin, Dillon Mitchell, Cambell, Boykin, Ferguson shouldn’t be their own tier after another review. They kind of intersect with ?’s and upside.

 

[Bojang0301]

I really appreciate the rankings. I disagree with a lot of it, but I welcome a different viewpoint, as long as it isn't based off 7 year old tweets.

Some questions:

T. Williams, Hill, and Weber in tier 2? What stands out about them to you? 

Why so down on Jacobs, Love, and especially Singletary? 

Not a Jordan Scarlett fan? 

Why so down on Hollywood Brown? I mean, I disagree with people who have him at #1, but outside the top-20? To a lesser extent, Terry McLaurin outside the top-20 also stands out, especially when compared to Emmanuel Hall.

Not a Diontae Johnson fan? 

I am a Jordan Scarlett fan, he’s just old for a RB prospect and doesn’t have much of any receiving production. He’s on my watch list to see if he gets drafted. I’ve put too much stock in athleticism in an old back with bad off the field history before and been burned. 

No ranking is meant to be insulting, though maybe Jacobs should be. Just because a hype train is rolling doesn’t mean it’s right. He meets none of the traditional metrics I look at. Literally zero. The only reason he’s ranked as high as he is, is on anticipated draft capital. It’s a gift that he’s in tier 3 not the other way around.

I liked Love’s junior season well enough. It’s hard when you have no workout metrics on a 200lb back who was rumored to not be interested in playing in the NFL. He could carve out a nice role in time but also hard for me to see him having an impact in 2019. Anderson may also fall in this category if the NFL dismisses him into rounds 4-7.

Singletary has incredibly poor speed and agility for a 203lb back. It’s all well and good he was so incredibly productive at FAU, Kevin Smith had the single season rushing record at one point out of UCF (also FAU’s RB Coach). I don’t buy that his athleticism should be dismissed. It’s not good. Small and poor athleticism is not a great combo for me. 

Marquise Brown’s BMI is a major issue, especially when combined with an already serious injury. If you fall way below the threshold of 26 it is almost a narrative that universally plays out where the player struggles to maintain health and consequentially struggles to produce top 24 seasons. I have nothing against his athleticism, though he did not test. His BO Age falls a bit off the spectrum as well. I’ve been burned by the likes of John Brown and Paul Richardson and I feel like I’ve learned why. In the words of The Who, I won’t be fooled again. 

McLaurin is an old prospect with little production. I liked the idea of taking him as an upside pick with little risk. If I’m being told he’s going in the first in the NFL and consequently drafted in the first/second in dynasty drafts, no thanks. There was a reason he wasn’t on anyone’s radar to start draft season. 

Diontae Johnson is on my watchlist.

 

[Biabreakable]

I wanted to post my pre NFL draft rankings somewhere so here that is.

Tier one

AJ Brown
NKeal Harry
Hakeem Butler
DK Metcalf
Darrell Henderson
Kyler Murray
TJ Hockenson
Noah Fant
Irv Smith

Tier 2a

David Montgomery
Deebo Samuel
Kelvin Harmon
Josh Jacobs
Rodney Anderson

Tier 2b

Marquise Brown
Miles Sanders
Justice Hill
Andy Isabella
JJ Arcega Whiteside
Drew Lock
Bryce Love
Damien Harris
Daniel Jones
Jace Sternberger
Caleb Wilson
Ryan Finley
Will Grier

Tier three

Anthony Johnson
Parris Campbell
Emanuel Hall
Devin Singletary
David Stills
Gary Jennings
Mike Weber
Riley Ridley
Lil Jordan Humphrey
Myles Gaskin
Bennie Snell
Alex Barnes

Overall I am liking this draft class better than I thought they would be in February

 

[PNRZ]

I wanted to post my pre NFL draft rankings somewhere so here that is. ...

Overall I am liking this draft class better than I thought they would be in February

My .02. These players are higher than I would rank them:

Irv Smith

Bryce Love

Daniel Jones

Caleb Wilson

Ryan Finley

Anthony Johnson

Lil Jordan Humphrey

Myles Gaskin

Missing: Drew Lock?

 

[PNRZ]

I'm in a RB scarce league. You both seem to like Myles Gaskin (relatively). I need to look deeper here. Any thoughts on his possible outcome in the NFL?

 

[Ilov80s]

I wanted to post my pre NFL draft rankings somewhere so here that is.

Tier one

AJ Brown
NKeal Harry
Hakeem Butler
DK Metcalf
Darrell Henderson
Kyler Murray
TJ Hockenson
Noah Fant
Irv Smith

Tier 2a

David Montgomery
Deebo Samuel
Kelvin Harmon
Josh Jacobs
Rodney Anderson

Tier 2b

Marquise Brown
Miles Sanders
Justice Hill
Andy Isabella
JJ Arcega Whiteside
Bryce Love
Damien Harris
Daniel Jones
Jace Sternberger
Caleb Wilson
Ryan Finley
Will Grier

Tier three

Anthony Johnson
Parris Campbell
Emanuel Hall
Devin Singletary
David Stills
Gary Jennings
Mike Weber
Riley Ridley
Lil Jordan Humphrey
Myles Gaskin
Bennie Snell
Alex Barnes

Overall I am liking this draft class better than I thought they would be in February

Those are real good IMO. My big disagreements are Irv Smith is too high. I just don’t like it. He’s small and so young that I bet I will take him a few years to really become anything.

JJ Arcega is too low. What’s not to like?

 

[Biabreakable]

My .02. These players are higher than I would rank them:

Irv Smith

Bryce Love

Daniel Jones

Caleb Wilson

Ryan Finley

Anthony Johnson

Lil Jordan Humphrey

Myles Gaskin

Missing: Drew Lock?

Yeah I just missed Lock when I posted the list. Will fix it. He is tier 2b

I don't have very strong opinions about the QBs. I have read some interesting things from Bill Connelly regarding college production for QB that has me not very confident in the group overall. I don't think the QB are as good as last years class for example, and there were 1st round QB last year who I don't like who I would rank higher than Lock or the rest of these QB.

Haskins may be better than Lock. That is one I waver on.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm in a RB scarce league. You both seem to like Myles Gaskin (relatively). I need to look deeper here. Any thoughts on his possible outcome in the NFL?

He is likely a late pick, but he has shown he can catch the ball. In the right offense he could be useful because of that.

Gaskin was productive right away for Washington but didn't really improve on his numbers although he was consistent. He regressed in terms of YPC with more total carries in his last season to 4.9 is a somewhat concerning sign. He didn't finish his college career strong.  He didn't test all that well at the combine which is kind of what you see when watching him. He has limitations as far as his burst to generate power or beat defenders angles. He is too light even though he runs with good pad level. He basically a JAG but at least he can do everything ok but not someone I expect to be able to win a job or keep it long in the NFL.

 

[Biabreakable]

Those are real good IMO. My big disagreements are Irv Smith is too high. I just don’t like it. He’s small and so young that I bet I will take him a few years to really become anything.

JJ Arcega is too low. What’s not to like?

One thing to consider with my tiers is that does not necessarily mean the order that I would draft the players in. I leave that up to you. I am just saying that I think Irv Smith can become a TE 12 within his first 3 seasons in the league. It is an easier target for a TE to reach that threshold than it is for the other positions.

I'm not really impressed with Whitesides route running. He is mostly winning on back shoulder fades or by boxing the defender out. His cuts are not sudden. He is still playing basketball out there. He is very good at what he does, but I see that translating into maybe a specialized role, I am not sure he is a complete WR.

 

[Bojang0301]

I'm in a RB scarce league. You both seem to like Myles Gaskin (relatively). I need to look deeper here. Any thoughts on his possible outcome in the NFL?

Gaskin tested as adequate across the board. He broke out early, had solid receiving production and, while his athletic profile isn’t great, it meets status quo. I’m not sure who I would compare him to. Maybe a little of James White without the elite receiving chops. Hard to imagine, I’m sure, but White has to do some developing to where he is now.