Bojang's 2019 Rookie Post-Draft Tiers (1 Viewer)

[Bojang0301]

2019 Rookie Pre Draft

2018 Post Draft

2018 Pre Draft

Not a lot to say. Things changed pretty drastically for some players with the NFL focusing heavily on defense in this years draft. Some quality athletic profiles went completely undrafted. I try to stay as true to my pre draft rankings as possible but do have to factor in draft capital and situation. I did also make one adjustment prior to the draft that I didn't post on the board which was an adjustment to the 2nd/3rd tier WR's. I felt I was giving too much emphasis on certain attributes (statistically in the case of Ashton Dulin) and not enough respect to players on the borderline for speed score (Dillon Mitchell was the example here but obviously the NFL did not like him). In any case here is the final form I'll be posting on the message board here. I don't adhere to this 100% and I would say everyone should draft according to their leagues.

QB

Tier 1:

Kyler Murray, ARI

Tier 2:

Dwayne Haskins, WAS

Tier 3:

Drew Lock, DEN 

Daniel Jones, NYG

Will Grier, CAR

Watchlist: Jarrett Stidham, Ryan Finley

RB

Tier 1: 

Darrell Henderson, LAR

David Montgomery, CHI

Miles Sanders, PHI

Josh Jacobs, OAK

Tier 2: 

Justice Hill, BAL

Darwin Thompson, KCC

Tier 3: 

Mike Weber, DAL

Trayveon Williams, CIN

Rodney Anderson, CIN

Travis Homer, SEA

Benny Snell, PIT

Bryce Love, WAS

Damien Harris, NE

Devin Singletary, BUF

Tier 4:

Dexter Williams, GB

Myles Gaskins, MIA

Quadree Ollison, ATL

Alexander Mattison, MIN

Tony Pollard, DAL

Ryquell Armstead, JAC

Ty Johnson, DET

Watchlist: Goes about 15 deep. Scarlett, Whyte, Crockett, Barnes and Ozigbo are my next five.

WR

Tier 1:

N'Keal Harry, NE

AJ Brown, TEN

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, PHI

Tier 2:

D.K. Metcalf, SEA

Andy Isabella, ARI

Hakeem Butler, ARI

Gary Jennings, SEA

Parris Campbell, IND

Deebo Samuel, SF

Tier 3:

Marquise Brown, BAL

Miles Boykin, BAL

Mecole Hardman, KCC

Diontae Johnson, PIT

Terry McLaurin, WAS

Tier 4:

Dillon Mitchell, MIN

Kelvin Harmon, WAS

Scott Miller, TBB

Darius Slayton, NYG

Jalen Hurd, SF

Watchlist: Travis Fulgham, Olabisi Johnson, Emanuel Hall, Ashton Dulin, David Sills, Jazz Ferguson

TE

Tier 1:

Noah Fant, DEN

TJ Hockenson, DET

Tier 2:

Josh Oliver, JAC

Kahele Warring, HOU

Irv Smith, MIN

Tier 3:

Foster Moreau, OAK

Jace Sternberger, GB

Caleb Wilson, ARI

Drew Sample, CIN

Dawson Knox, BUF

Alize Mack, NO

Watchlist: Andrew Beck, Donald Parham

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

So why Gary Jennings so high?

 

[Bojang0301]

So why Gary Jennings so high?

He meets what I look for. 

The only marks I have against him are his breakout age was just slightly over what you like to see (20.5 vs wanting to see <20) and he was drafted in the 4th to Seattle. I didn't know why people weren't talking about him going into the draft and now that he was taken after DK with a redundant skill set, he for sure isn't getting talked about after the draft. I don't suggest or recommend taking where I have him ranked but it sure is easy for me to pull the trigger in in the third or later when he's still on the board. 

 

[Bojang0301]

Metcalf vs Jennings

Taken 57 picks apart. Jennings could easily languish behind Lockett, Moore and Metcalf but, and as with Hakeem Butler, I saw no significant reason to drop him from where I had him in the pre-draft process. 

 

[BradtheAg]

Real nice work and I agree with most of it.  Do you ever put together an overall list?

 

[Bojang0301]

Real nice work and I agree with most of it.  Do you ever put together an overall list?

I did last year with full IDP. This year I honestly don’t have a ton of picks in any league so I haven’t put the effort in. Plus if I did it would only be reflective of the formats I play in. I think for people looking for a different perspective this is more helpful for their own opinions, research and rankings.

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice work.

I disagree with a lot of it but mostly just the order you have players in a tier, which doesn't matter much.

I don't understand why Samuel is at the bottom of tier two? You had him as a tier two player prior to the draft, same as Jennings. However Samuel was drafted higher and is in a better situation to produce for fantasy.

He was the 3rd WR selected of this whole group after all. Not seeing what else has changed post draft to cause that ranking.

Are you going to draft Jennings before Deebo?

 

[Bojang0301]

Nice work.

I disagree with a lot of it but mostly just the order you have players in a tier, which doesn't matter much.

I don't understand why Samuel is at the bottom of tier two? You had him as a tier two player prior to the draft, same as Jennings. However Samuel was drafted higher and is in a better situation to produce for fantasy.

He was the 3rd WR selected of this whole group after all. Not seeing what else has changed post draft to cause that ranking.

Are you going to draft Jennings before Deebo?

No, I probably wouldn’t. Take this as a rough sketch. Samuel I did end up dropping into newly created third tier prior to the draft. His combined dominator, speed score and breakout age were all borderline for me and those are the three biggest things I look at. His draft capital and ADP would have me take him over Jennings but that’s why they share the tier. All the order is probably doing is saying I think this player profile a little bit more because of x, y and z. It’s not an exact science like ZWK has it down to. I mean, hell, I don’t like anything about Josh Jacobs but you can’t deny the opportunity presented.

 

[Gandalf]

He meets what I look for. 

The only marks I have against him are his breakout age was just slightly over what you like to see (20.5 vs wanting to see <20) and he was drafted in the 4th to Seattle. I didn't know why people weren't talking about him going into the draft and now that he was taken after DK with a redundant skill set, he for sure isn't getting talked about after the draft. I don't suggest or recommend taking where I have him ranked but it sure is easy for me to pull the trigger in in the third or later when he's still on the board. 

I like Gary Jennings as a sleeper next year. Baldwin might be done. Jennings is solid all around and could be a great fit in that offense

 

[Bojang0301]

Nice work.

I disagree with a lot of it but mostly just the order you have players in a tier, which doesn't matter much.

I don't understand why Samuel is at the bottom of tier two? You had him as a tier two player prior to the draft, same as Jennings. However Samuel was drafted higher and is in a better situation to produce for fantasy.

He was the 3rd WR selected of this whole group after all. Not seeing what else has changed post draft to cause that ranking.

Are you going to draft Jennings before Deebo?

I do factor this in when I am doing my personal drafts, just to continue the conversation a little bit: https://twitter.com/russelljclay/status/1125473191374123008?s=21

 

[cloppbeast]

Gary Jennings? Not seeing it. Do they make their receivers run with ankle weights at WVU? I kid, I kid.

Definitely respect your takes, you know, coming up with your own opinions and what not. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I do factor this in when I am doing my personal drafts, just to continue the conversation a little bit: https://twitter.com/russelljclay/status/1125473191374123008?s=21

yeah well this begs the question about how to fantasy football team managers apply things such as draft position and fit into their final valuation of the rookie players?

The chart that you link is an interesting one.

First of all I wonder what is the percentage of all WR drafted and undrafted who have at least one 800 yard season?

I am guessing not many of them from looking at the 2nd and 4th rounders having 60% of the players selected never have an 800 season.

However I do wonder how useful the cut off of a 800 yard season is for fantasy?

in 2018 34 payers had 800 or more receiving yards. 2017 32 of them did. 2016 49 players had 800 or more. 2015 there were 42 players with 800 receiving yards. In 2014 45 players did.

I dunno it seems like the target is something near WR 3 level here as far as them being a success or not. Of course for fantasy you have some players with double digit TD not quite reaching that yardage threshold. 

It does seem that a 2nd round WR has a better chance of at least one 800 yard season. The odds of either having more than 3 800 yard seasons is very low although slightly better for the 2nd round WR.

This reminds me of some nice stuff workdog did about 5 years ago. He looked at the history from a VBD perspective however which is a better metric for our purposes. I will see if I can dig that up again. Only thing is he looked at players based on the order they were selected, rather than by draft position. Which leads to some interesting results. 

@ZWK work I think is pretty closely related to that. Or at least that is one of the core parts of his data.  The historical VBD evaluation.There are a lot of other things he does as well. Maybe he can offer some insight on this.

For me draft position is mostly just a tie breaker. I will almost always rank a player of otherwise equal talent level (pre NFL evaluation) based on their draft position. It depends though.

The caveat to this is the team fit. Which involves looking at the overall ability of the team who selected the player. Who that team has to compete with the player for opportunity, and how good the supporting cast of that team is to support numbers in fantasy.

If the team fit is much better in my view that can trump draft position.

For example I would have almost no interest in Paris Campbell even at his draft position except that he got paired with Lick. I had him as a tier 3 WR prior to the draft. The combination of draft position and team fit causes me to move him into tier two. I did the same thing with Phillip Dorsett when he was drafted by the Colts for the same reasons. They do seem to have a more competent front office now than they had when they drafted Dorsett though.

As for Gary Jennings he was the 15th WR selected compared to the 3rd. I can see the team fit perhaps being better for Jennigs because Russell Wilson is a better QB than JG has had the chance to prove. They really scaled back Wilsons passing attempts last year though, which was successful for them in terms of winning games. I worry this low volume may continue.

The other aspect of team fit here however is that the Seahawks selected DK Metcalf in the 2nd round compared to Jennings in the 4th round. So in my view this decreases Jennings chances of becoming a feature WR for them, as I would expect Metcalf to be better and I also think Lockett is better than him. Doug Baldwin has been the best WR for Seattle during Wilsons time there. He may be on the way out, getting older, struggling with injuries but I don't see him going away soon. They also have Moore who was productive for them last year. So to me this means Jennings is 4th at best on his own team, while I would expect Samuel to be at the top of the 49ers depth chart rather quickly.

 

[Bojang0301]

I am very high on David Moore as well. I agree with your perspective and it being a complicated situation. I like Deebo too. I don’t think, for me at least, there is really a Deebo vs Jennings deal going on. I haven’t been pressed into the situation of Deebo vs Butler vs Campbell vs Isabella but I think I would go Isabella > Deebo > Campbell > Butler and outside of Isabella draft capital is breaking that apart. Honestly, I prefer the height/speed combo’s like Butler has. I think the NFL drafts should be viewed as a market place. Teams overcorrect in one direction and that happens to be small, fast and agile WR’s over tall, fast but maybe driven to contested catch WR’s. Maybe it’s a signal they don’t trust the young QB’s as much coming in?

In any case I thought Seattle did a fantastic job of arbitraging the leagues over correction. They already have their Isabella/Samuel in Lockett now they have three dart throws in Moore, Metcalf and Jennings and all of them are similar as far as productivity/athleticism/size goes. It’s clear they have a type they want to fill the void Baldwin leaves. Tough to say whether they’ll go extreme run heavy again. It’s sort of what Schottenheimer does but how is the fan base going to react to Russell being paid so highly and then reduced to a caretaker? Pete’s also not getting any younger. There could be a succession to a young, offensive minded coach sooner than we think.

 

[Biabreakable]

Well I'm just saying why I dont think he is the same tier as Samuel.

While I can appreciate that rankings are not the same as ADP and each league is different as well which could change ones priorities, I still think you should rank them the order you would draft them in a vacuum without those considerations.

 

[Bojang0301]

Well I'm just saying why I dont think he is the same tier as Samuel.

While I can appreciate that rankings are not the same as ADP and each league is different as well which could change ones priorities, I still think you should rank them the order you would draft them in a vacuum without those considerations.

That’s probably fair. Seeing as I did it for literally every other tier I should have dropped him to the bottom of the list and reordered it instead of just moving Deebo and Campbell up from the revised tier 3 that didn’t get posted. I guess I just thought the first two tiers of WR were easy for me.  I would take him over every WR in tier 3 if I didn’t have the ability to move down. 

 

[Bojang0301]

I may be too low on Jalen Hurd. Maybe he should have had tier 3 consideration by me: https://twitter.com/maatspencer/status/1125730499106869248?s=21

 

[steelcityman]

Alize Mack in NOLA is interesting.  If they dont ask him to do the dirty stuff, aka block, he might be a nice 50 catch TE.  He has all the skills.  But, being a ND fan, he just never lived up to what I thought could have been an all-American type career there.  Again, all the skills to be pass catching, but just didnt want to get dirty.  Not sure how that plays in NOLA.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I may be too low on Jalen Hurd. Maybe he should have had tier 3 consideration by me: https://twitter.com/maatspencer/status/1125730499106869248?s=21

Hurd has talent no doubt...lots of people forget has was a good rb in the sec