kevthegrad
Footballguy
I am hoping and thinking Lloyd emerges as a strong #2. But do you see Randle El perhaps beating him out for that spot?
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Brandon Lloyd vs Randle El (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter kevthegrad
- Start date
diesel7982
Footballguy
No.
We'll see Randle El as the slot WR, and we'll see him heavily used as a ST player. And he'll be great insurance for both Lloyd and Moss.
His main value will be as a Kr/Pr, slot WR, and trick play maker.
And before anyone says that they didnt pay him a $10mil bonus to be a #3 guy, please remember this is Daniel Synder's team
We'll see Randle El as the slot WR, and we'll see him heavily used as a ST player. And he'll be great insurance for both Lloyd and Moss.
His main value will be as a Kr/Pr, slot WR, and trick play maker.
And before anyone says that they didnt pay him a $10mil bonus to be a #3 guy, please remember this is Daniel Synder's team
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
IMO, Randle El will end up the #2 contrary to popular opinion. Despite all the talk about $1M per catch, Randle had actually been a pretty reliable receiver for Pitt until last year.
He will justify his contract much moreso than Lloyd.
He will justify his contract much moreso than Lloyd.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Also, this should be a pole.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
No, a pole. It's a mute point anyway.Or even a poll.
Homey
Footballguy
Just like Yancey Thigpen's.For those that didnt watch El every week, he seems like a semi-stud based on some of the things he did in the playoffs, however, he tends to drop a lot of balls. Lloyd is the better WR, although El is a helluva playmaker . . . just overpaid.I still can't get over how much Randle El's football abilities declined once Washington signed him.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Lloyd drops a lot of balls. I think El's drops last year were an anomaly, although it may have been a symptom of increased expectations in the offense with Plax gone.Just like Yancey Thigpen's.For those that didnt watch El every week, he seems like a semi-stud based on some of the things he did in the playoffs, however, he tends to drop a lot of balls. Lloyd is the better WR, although El is a helluva playmaker . . . just overpaid.I still can't get over how much Randle El's football abilities declined once Washington signed him.
kevthegrad
Footballguy
So what are you guys basing putting Randle El at WR2 instead of Lloyd on?
Lloyd was the starter on a team with a rookie struggling at QB, no TE threat, average to poor rb play, with no Arnaz Battle the closest to another target on the team. He still managed some incredible catches and good play in double coverage the entire year.
He's now going to a team where opposing D's will have to respect a better running game (Portis), better WR threats (Moss, Randle El, Chris Cooley at TE), more stable QB play with Brunell, Lloyd will face a lot more open coverage, and a better D to keep opposing O's off the field.
Lloyd will put up good numbers this year. I see him as McCardell to Moss's Jimmy Smith circa late 90's.
Lloyd was the starter on a team with a rookie struggling at QB, no TE threat, average to poor rb play, with no Arnaz Battle the closest to another target on the team. He still managed some incredible catches and good play in double coverage the entire year.
He's now going to a team where opposing D's will have to respect a better running game (Portis), better WR threats (Moss, Randle El, Chris Cooley at TE), more stable QB play with Brunell, Lloyd will face a lot more open coverage, and a better D to keep opposing O's off the field.
Lloyd will put up good numbers this year. I see him as McCardell to Moss's Jimmy Smith circa late 90's.
jurb26
Footballguy
I don't know why exactly but I'm just not thrilled about the WRs prospects in Wash this year. I have Lloyd and had Moss as well. I traded Moss away for the BIG Moss. 
I'm just not sold that the Saunders O will get them the kind of numbers we FF really like. I see big things for both Portis and Cooley, but Moss and Lloyd, eh. I will say one thing though, I kept Llyod because it really should be hard for him to do worse in Wash with the weapons around him now than he did in SF with a lost rookie QB. We'll see. 
I'm just not sold that the Saunders O will get them the kind of numbers we FF really like. I see big things for both Portis and Cooley, but Moss and Lloyd, eh. I will say one thing though, I kept Llyod because it really should be hard for him to do worse in Wash with the weapons around him now than he did in SF with a lost rookie QB. We'll see. 
Big Score
Footballguy
This is bad information by KnowledgeReignsSupreme.Randel El's drops in 2005 were no anomaly.
Randel El 2003
56 Total Targets - 4 Drops
Randel El 2004
63 Total Targets - 2 Drops
Randel El 2005
69 Total Targets - 3 Drops
Total Targets = 188 / Total Drops = 9
1 Drop per 21 Targets
This is also bad information by KnowledgeReignsSupreme.Brandon Lloyd 2003
30 Total Targets - 0 Drops
Brandon Lloyd 2004
84 Total Targets - 3 Drops
Brandon Lloyd 2005
109 Total Targets - 4 Drops
Total Targets = 228 / Total Drops = 7
1 Drop per 33 Targets
Clearly in the hands department, Randel El has a long way to go before he's in the same class as Lloyd. I would say the Skins coaches are aware of the difference between the two and would be very surprised if Lloyd is not their choice for the #2 WR spot.
For comparison, 2 of the better hands WR's in the NFL.
Marvin Harrison - 2003 thru 2005, had 412 Total Targets & Dropped 12.
1 Drop per 34 Targets
Torry Holt - 2003 thru 2005, had 480 Total Targets & Dropped 15.
1 Drop per 32 Targets
Statistics pulled from STATS Fantasy Advantage
redman
Footballguy
Both of these guys are "buy low" candidates IMHO, and that's because the 'Skins are finally identifying and acquiring talent on the rise rather than vets on the downside of their careers. Thank you Joe Gibbs!Consider this:
Lloyd played up to now in one of the most inept offenses in football, with no talent to speak of at QB, RB, WR or on the o-line, and a coaching change thrown in for good measure. His numbers figured to increase simply with merely decent players around him, and he's also entering the stage of his career when WR's are in their primes.
Randle El was the #3 WR up until last season, when he was the WR2 in an offense that ran more (60% of the time) than any other offense has in the last 15 years. Again, I think he's going to better his career highs.
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Balco
Footballguy
I still think he is adequate as a receiver, and an explosive returner. Definitely not worth the $$$ that was thrown at him. Obviously it's his return ability that really separates him, but I would rather have a guy like Troy Walters over him at their respective salaries any day of the week.
kevthegrad
Footballguy
This was the single most informative post I have ever read on this site in 3 years. You are the man.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
"Drops" are not an official NFL statistic. STATS compiles drops by asking the opinion of game reporters whether or not the WR should have caught the ball.It's not as simple as saying "he gained 5 yards on the play", which is about as objective a stat as you can get in the NFL.Lloyd was targetted 102 times last year and came away with 44 receptions*. 43% of the time he was thrown to, he caught the pass.El was targetted 68 times and came away with 34 receptions.50% of the time he was thrown to, he caught the pass.To his credit, El came away with near 70% of the passes thrown his way in 2004 while IIRC, Lloyd has never even made 50% in a season.To be fair, that obviously does not tell the entire story. El was working with a much better QB and a better offense than Lloyd was the past few years (Although Battle working with the same cast, put up much better catch% numbers). Then again Moulds and Mason have put up good catch percentages with JP Losman and Kyle Boller.There is room for argument, just like polling reporters whether or not a WR should have caught a pass._______________* FBG target stats go through week 16 according to the page.
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diesel7982
Footballguy
Ehhh...I wouldnt go that far.
Its a great post, and has alot of merit, but it doesnt address the accuracy of the QBs throwing to Lloyd and Randle El.
A "target" doesnt mean a catchable ball. Lloyd would likely have had less opportunity to drop a pass from Alex Smith and Tim Rattay than Randle El would have been from Maddox and Big Ben.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
I can agree w/ too close to call. Lloyd (IIRC) performed similar to C.Wilson in S.F. and the only reason El beat out Wilson in Pitt was 'cause it was Wilson's 1st year in the system, but would have been a good position battle this year.
Big Score
Footballguy
Correct, in that it's not an official NFL stat. However, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss STATS.
STATS is as objective as possible, in that they go by what the actual game reporters (multiple sources - not just one person) see, who have no vested interest in whether the WR caught, or conversely, dropped the ball.
It's my understanding that STATS criteria for "Dropped Balls" is pretty stringent.
They sift out and discard the fully stretched out off the finger tips, just got the ball before getting creamed and it pops loose, the WR having to contort himself into a pretzel, or take the stairway to heaven to even have a chance at the ball...etc...etc...etc...
STATS criteria for "Dropped Balls" is where the WR has the ball hit him in an easily catchable area (read - the hands) and the WR plain & simply drops it.
Anyway, whether we think STATS is accurate or not, until the NFL begins officially compiling "Dropped Balls", it's all we have to go by as far as I know.
I will say this, I've watched both these players with my own eyes and I know who I think has the better hands...and it's not even close.
But how much validity would anyone have given that post, if it was all I wrote? I mean I know I'm right, having seen it with my own eyes, but still, you need some confirmation, otherwise it's just someones opinion, with nothing backing it up.
That was the reason for bringing STATS up.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Really, does this matter?
Will either be a FF assett this year unless you get good point for special teams?
With Portis, Cooley, Santana, and the existence of the other (whoever you don't pick), will the #2 vs. #3 distinction make on iota of difference?
In short, if you're counting on either one except as an emergency or in case Moss gets injured, you're in deep trouble.
Will either be a FF assett this year unless you get good point for special teams?
With Portis, Cooley, Santana, and the existence of the other (whoever you don't pick), will the #2 vs. #3 distinction make on iota of difference?
In short, if you're counting on either one except as an emergency or in case Moss gets injured, you're in deep trouble.
redman
Footballguy
This kind of post is a dead giveaway for a basher. What do you care what the 'Skins paid for him? They were able to make every other move that they wanted to make this offseason and still pay Randle El what they paid him. Was it above market? Maybe. They certainly offered him more than anyone else did, including teams like Chicago that were reportedly really targeting him. And before you talk about "cap hell", don't. It hasn't happened for them yet, despite such gloom and doom being predicted for years.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Hmmm... I thought, what the hey, let's look at Santana Moss in the same light. I was pretty surprised by what I saw:Santana Moss 2003
117 Total Targets - 4 Drops (1 per 29.2 - QB was Pennington)
Santana Moss 2004
78 Total Targets - 7 Drops (yikes, that's 1 per 11.1!! QB mostly Vinny T)
Santana Moss 2005
134 Total Targets - 8 Drops (not good, that's 1 per 16.7 with Brunell)
Total Targets = 329 / Total Drops = 19
1 Drop per 17.3 Targets... that's worse than Lloyd or Randle El, and the last two years it's 212 / 15 = 14.1 OUCH
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Big Score
Footballguy
You ain't seen nothing yet.Check out Chad Johnson.
Chad Johnson 2003
154 Total Targets - 3 Drops (1 per 51.3)
Chad Johnson 2004
170 Total Targets - 14 Drops (1 per 12.1)
Chad Johnson 2005
155 Total Targets - 9 Drops (1 per 17.2)
Total Targets = 479 / Total Drops = 26
1 Drop per 18.4 Targets... again worse than Lloyd or Randle El and the last two years for CJ, it's 325 / 23 = 14.1
I wonder if the high number of drops by both Mini Moss & CJ, could be a case of these guys trying too hard?
Since both these guys make a living on their big play ability of getting yards after the catch, do we think their high number of drops could be being exacerbated, by them trying to turn and run up hill, before fulling securing the ball?
Just a guess, probably several factors at play. I really have no clue why these guys are dropping so many balls.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Pure speculation, but perhaps the tighter covered a WR is, the more likely he is to drop a ball? Partly because he has to do so much to get open, run the route (harder with tight coverage), etc.?You ain't seen nothing yet.Check out Chad Johnson.
Chad Johnson 2003
154 Total Targets - 3 Drops (1 per 51.3)
Chad Johnson 2004
170 Total Targets - 14 Drops (1 per 12.1)
Chad Johnson 2005
155 Total Targets - 9 Drops (1 per 17.2)
Total Targets = 479 / Total Drops = 26
1 Drop per 18.4 Targets... again worse than Lloyd or Randle El and the last two years for CJ, it's 325 / 23 = 14.1
I wonder if the high number of drops by both Mini Moss & CJ, could be a case of these guys trying too hard?
Since both these guys make a living on their big play ability of getting yards after the catch, do we think their high number of drops could be being exacerbated, by them trying to turn and run up hill, before fulling securing the ball?
Just a guess, probably several factors at play. I really have no clue why these guys are dropping so many balls.
El Floppo
Footballguy
Amidst all the "dropped balls" talk, I'm really suprised nobody's brought up the point that these are 2 very different WRs. As has been pointed out, Randle El is a slasher, speedster, gamebreaker... which is much the same player as S Moss. Lloyd will be the #2 because he is more of a possession, tough catch, go up for the ball WR; he's only listed 6'0", but if you've seen him play, you know he plays a lot taller than that- a nice compliment to either Moss or El.
I just don't see WAS going with only the two, smaller speey guys, without a possession guy on the field with them. And FWIW- I'm not a huge Moss fan- too many of his numbers came on the bomb last year, and I just don't see opposing teams letting him do that again this year. I the defensive respect paid to Moss (and Portis and Cooley) this year will open things up for some nice numbers for Lloyd at the #2. Randle El will have more benefit to his team as an NFL player than as a FFer- he'll break some plays and put WAS in position to win some games- the same won't be said for your FF team.
I just don't see WAS going with only the two, smaller speey guys, without a possession guy on the field with them. And FWIW- I'm not a huge Moss fan- too many of his numbers came on the bomb last year, and I just don't see opposing teams letting him do that again this year. I the defensive respect paid to Moss (and Portis and Cooley) this year will open things up for some nice numbers for Lloyd at the #2. Randle El will have more benefit to his team as an NFL player than as a FFer- he'll break some plays and put WAS in position to win some games- the same won't be said for your FF team.
Big Score
Footballguy
Could be, could be.But then how do we explain Harrison & Holt being soooo good?Pure speculation, but perhaps the tighter covered a WR is, the more likely he is to drop a ball? Partly because he has to do so much to get open, run the route (harder with tight coverage), etc.?You ain't seen nothing yet.Check out Chad Johnson.
Chad Johnson 2003
154 Total Targets - 3 Drops (1 per 51.3)
Chad Johnson 2004
170 Total Targets - 14 Drops (1 per 12.1)
Chad Johnson 2005
155 Total Targets - 9 Drops (1 per 17.2)
Total Targets = 479 / Total Drops = 26
1 Drop per 18.4 Targets... again worse than Lloyd or Randle El and the last two years for CJ, it's 325 / 23 = 14.1
I wonder if the high number of drops by both Mini Moss & CJ, could be a case of these guys trying too hard?
Since both these guys make a living on their big play ability of getting yards after the catch, do we think their high number of drops could be being exacerbated, by them trying to turn and run up hill, before fulling securing the ball?
Just a guess, probably several factors at play. I really have no clue why these guys are dropping so many balls.
Marvin Harrison - 2003 thru 2005, had 412 Total Targets & Dropped 12.
1 Drop per 34 Targets
Torry Holt - 2003 thru 2005, had 480 Total Targets & Dropped 15.
1 Drop per 32 Targets
Traders2001
Footballguy
Cmon the guy is nt even decent WR , he is a very very ordinery WR .I cant understand why you would sign him to such a big contract , i hope it s not for 4 or 5 trick plays they will run with him all season cause it becomes very expensive for each trick play . But i guess it s the reason ( trick plays ) cause as far as WR talent is concerned he is probably 4th or 5th on the skins depht chart.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Why do you feel this way? There was no legit #2 WR last year and after the Cowboys game early in the season EVERYONE knew that he liked to go deep. And they weren't able to stop him then. NOBODY was caught off guard by his speed after that game. Why are they suddenly more prepared now?
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Drop stats from STATS INC are not a good predictor of a WR being good?If you think the drop stats are saying that Lloyd/Randle-El are better receivers than Moss/Johnson, perhaps you are reading too much into it.
Or the drop stats are not as objective as you'd like them to be.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
I didn't sign him to anything.
Call it a hunch, but I think Randle El could surprise.Who cares how much he cost? The Skins got him for his versatility, and as a return guy. I'm a Skins fan, and love the Randel El signing is it a bit pricey?? yeah it is, but so are a lot of Redskin signing, this is how they aquire the players they want. They give them lots of $$$, it is just a different approach to building up the franchise, instead of drafting and waiting, they are signing guys through FA. What's the big deal???
Big Score
Footballguy
Your post is extremely confusing KnowledgeReignsSupreme.You've taken a single line from a side discussion with FUBAR, on the merits of the hands of Mini Moss / CJ compared to Harrison / Holt.
From that side discussion of those 4 players, you've somehow come to the conclusion that I think Lloyd & Randel El are better than Mini Moss & CJ.
I can't even begin to think of how to respond to this discombobulated catastrophuk of a post.
