Braylon Edwards Questions (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

1 - edwards has a lot of drops... TO has a lot of drops... many people seem to be understandably down on edwards due to the drops, but when the TO comparison is invoked, in my experience it doesn't seem to be one those in the down on edwards camp are comfortable with... obviously their careers don't have a one to one correspondence (if a map was as big as the US it would be hard to fold into the glove box of your car), but it is a suggestion of how it is possible to suceed at a high level despite drops... clearly edwards has not had anywhere close to as distinguished a career (though he is still relatively young)... when TO was in his prime, would he be/was he in fact worth the probable given of 10-15 drops a season (not asking about the separate question of dealing with his histrionics & chemistry disruption)?

2 - how important are drops? 15 drops a year sounds like a lot (i think TO has about that since 2007, edwards a few more)... in other words, what is the difference between having 15 drops a year, & lets say a more reasonable amount (like between 5-10)... but in which the QB hypothetically has 5-10 more incomplete passes that season... i realize dropped TDs are more high profile & noticeable, & mere incomplete passes are more mundane... but i can't see any intrinsic difference as far as the end result... a wasted play... the reason i bring it up is i think it is a matter of perspective... certainly 5-10 more incomplete passes doesn't seem like much when swallowed up by the total number of passes thrown over the course of a whole season... i would concede that it probably wouldn't be good to have four braylon edwards-type players at the three WR positions & receiving TE...

3 - motivation... i think most of us respect a player who plays hard no matter the situation... who has the pressionalism & pride in his work that enabled walter payton to play hard even during down years... while less than that may leave a taint of suspicion, randy moss (as has been noted before) is a good counter example of a player that languished in black hole purgatory & it seemed to spill over into his effort... this caused many to give up on him... i just wonder if some are making the same mistake with edwards... he clearly wanted out of CLE, & i can appreciate how some would be disappointed in the way he went about escaping, if he gave less than full effort (though i did see some plays where he was running downfield at full speed & the ball was thrown 10 yards over his head, or five behind & intercepted)... i guess the point i'm trying to make is, even if we may have less respect for a player that doesn't always sell out for the team & fans... does it make sense to project edwards now that he is with the jets, based on what he did in CLE last season & a quarter? can he have a moss like turnaround (not post identical stats, but a turnaround IN KIND) if he is now happy & motivated to secure a long term contract in a place he wants to stay in long term? i realize sometimes habits & character issues can be notoriously difficult patterns to break... but at least in the case of randy moss, it would have been wrong to write him off based on his stint in OAK... could there be a parallel here?

some of these points were addressed in other threads, but imo they were at times dismissed a bit cavalierly, so my hope is that by breaking them down in isolation & a little more dispassionately, additional light could be shed on his projection... CLE homer input is welcomed & encouraged, but no more than any other regional perspectives... i have tried to frame some of these questions (using TO & moss comp) so they hopefully transcend the particulars of this one case...

* i was harping on the point that there may not be a big difference between the same amount of drops by a WR & incomplete passes by a QB spread out over a season... i would concede the point that a dropped TD is a more spectatcular failure... maybe a dropped TD does have a worse impact (than a corresponinding wasted play by QB... ie - incomplete pass), albeit somewhat intangible... just as big plays, like a dunk in basketball or a spectacular play in football can deflate the opponent... i just think that in some cases an inonordinate number of drops could be acceptable if compensated by/with enough positive big plays (such as is arguably the case with TO)...

** one rejoinder which i would anticipate in the moss comparison is he has had nowhere near as accomplished a career... this is obviously true... but edwards, in college & in 2007, demonstrated that, when at his best, properly motivated & with a QB capable of getting him the ball, has the natural talent & ability to be one of the best WRs in the game... so to pose one of the questions above in a different way... do edwards detractors think that talent suddenly disappeared? that he never had it in the first place & just got lucky in 2007 due to a perfect storm or confluence of unrepeatable factors? that he will repeat his supposedly moss in OAK-like lackadaisacal, half-hearted effort, despite his seemingly being where he wants to be for the first time in his NFL career, & motivated to secure a long term contract... to extend that line of questioning, & put the onus on the detractors to defend their pessimistic projection... why wouldn't edwards do better? one reason might be if some think sanchez is a question mark (he is of course, as would any QB be four games into his NFL career... but imo, some signs, such as his mature-beyond-his-years poise & composure, leadership, preparation, coaching, football smarts, mobility, pocket sense & field awareness, & his phenomenal third down conversion rate in his first few games bode well, & he looks very matt ryan-like in his his still nascent, embryonic NFL career)...

*** what would ordinarily be legit cause for pessimism THIS SEASON in redrafts, is the difficulty in transitioning to an entirely new system/terminology (many instances, most recently roy williams from DET to DAL last year)... but as i understand it, the jets retained the same system in the wake of his departure that mangini brought with him to CLE (though it seems fair to speculate how well edwards learned/understands it if he wasn't applying himself 100%... than again, how hard is it to run a fly pattern? )... and that point would seem to be rendered moot for longer-range time frames & dynasty purposes (though there is still some uncertainty if he will remain with the jets... they would have the option to re-sign him or possibly franchise him... if he plays well, it would be a big surprise if the jets don't make an effort to retain him)... if there is one thing he does seem to have going for him, it is youth (without looking it up, i think he is 26-27?)...

 

[massraider]

I am a Braylon detractor, but that doesn't mean I don't think he can't be a fantasy #1 in New York. The two things aren't mutually exclusive.

I am a Braylon detractor in that what I saw in Cleveland was inexcusable. And when I see excuses being made, the only thing I can think is people didn't watch CLE and think it's being blown out of proportion. I never saw a WR do more damage to a passing game the way Braylon did last year.

First, he dropped more than the official number of passes. I will argue that with my dying breath. A Browns fan can tell you better than me, but the number of balls he should have had, and didn't, was more than 15 or 16.

Second, the magnitude of the passes he dropped was mind-numbing. Any Braylon owner can tell you that. It's been said before, but cannot be understated. He was as big a reason for Derek Anderson losing his job as Anderson was. Anderson's numbers would have looked a lot better if Braylon was catching balls. Of course, any Browns fan will tell you that Winslow and Braylon bailed Anderson out in 2006 numerous times with spectacular catches.

Aside from the on-field stuff, the attitude started. Stupid comments about Cleveland fans disliking him because he went to Michigan.

Everyone has seen this before. The diva WR crap. It's predictable and frustrating. Braylon doesn't get a pass for this, because other players play hard for bad teams. Happens every year.

I didn't want any part of Braylon before this year. I didn't really see how he was gonna get happy, and sudenly return to 2007 numbers. I think waaay too many people just thought it was an aberration, and he was going to bounce back, with very little evidence to suggest he wanted to. It was obvious he wanted out of Cleveland, and IMO, only a good record would change that. That hasn't happened.

Braylon's attitude is why the trade is good for CLE. It appears he was never going to give full effort, excel, or re-sign in CLE. At some point, you have to cut your losses. If he turns into a Pro Bowler, people will laugh at the Brown for only getting what they got. But I think that was never going to happen in CLE. A lot of players need or want a change of scenery. The other option for the Browns was for Braylon to play out his deal, continue to suck, and then leave for nothing.

Now that he's in New York, everything looks great. Coach that everyone loves, young QB that appears to have a future, and strong defense. Plus, I am sure, completely positive, that Braylon couldn't be happier now. He's a young, rich black kid that loves the spotlight, and he is now in New York. (I only bring up race because, hey, there are better places to be young, rich, and black, and there are worse. I'd rather be rich and black in Atlanta or NYC than CLE or Green Bay. Small point.)

I think you have to be bullish on his prospects in New York. We have seen unhappy players get happy in better situations, and perform well. Everyone brings up Randy Moss, and it's a good comparison. I would say one thing about that: Braylon's situation in CLE wasn't as bad as Moss in OAK, and his situation in NY isn't as good as Moss in NE. And he doesn't have Moss' talent. No one does.

If you are a Braylon owner, you have to be happy. The concern is that you wonder when he can help you in redraft. They are talking about him starting Monday night. Well, OK. I wonder how many passes they can actually throw to him. I've read that the offenses are similar. Well, unless someone tells me the terminology is the same, I have doubts if he can be the #1 target right away.

Thinking long-term (dynasty and redraft next year): There's probably no more buying low on Braylon. I hung onto him (whether I wanted to or not), and I expect him to start for me next year. I doubt I would consider starting him again this year until I saw a big game, and heard reports of him learning the offense, and that he was up-to-speed.

In redraft, I am sure he will go too early for me next year. Even if he pulls a Roy Williams in Dallas, people will give him the traded-in-midseason mulligan, and draft him in the late 2nd.

My concern is, what happens if things don't stay great in New York? I remember when Mangini was ManGenius. Things change quick in the NFL. What happens if New York regresses? Seems hard to imagine, but it happens every single year. Is Braylon going to be part of the solution? I have a hard time believing that. His motivation will be great, and we will read all kinds of articles over the next month about what a hard-worker and model teammate he is. Of course we will. This is the honeymoon. But I will always be waiting for the other shoe to drop.

 

[Bob Magaw]

thanx for the thoughtful post, massraider...

i agree with pretty much everything you said...

at times in other thread/s i may have come off as too strident of an edwards & SITUATIONAL optimist...

i agree that edwards needed to go, wasn't going to re-sign & the team did well by getting what it could... there is a question if they could have gotten more earlier, but i could understand if mangini wanted to see what he had in him for himself first... & to be fair, it is unclear how much more, if anything was ever on the table... reportedly when the browns asked the giants for kiwanuka or steve smith, there was no interest... and the fact that the browns may not seem to have gotten much IF edwards turns it around (we don't know what they will do with the 3rd & 5th rounders... though they could end up more like high 4th & 6th if jets finish well) is still suggestive that is what the going rate was... if more teams had thought he was more valuable than the jets did, they had the opportunity to cough up more or better picks/players... so the real NFL, in terms of front offices, coaching staffs & scouting departments, must have had there fair share of detractors, too... he DOES sound like a headache, personality & attitude-wise (but similar things have been said about TO & moss)...

one slight disagreement... while i concur that moss has likely unprecedented talent... on paper, edwards physical tools & natural talent could enable him to be one of the top WRs in the game (if not as good as moss)... i'm not sure andre johnson or larry fitzgerald are as good as moss, either... they have different games... but they are very, very good... on paper, & talent-wise, imo it would be better to point out their similarities than differences with moss, & to emphasize how close they might be, rather than highlight the distance that separates them... clearly edwards drops the ball a lot more (though i don't think a LOT more than TO), but in terms of physical ability & pedigree, edwards has a lot in common with some of the top WRs...

 

[daveR]

Agree with mr completely.

It's pretty apparent he would be traded in the off-season after franchise / transition tagging him.

His talent for going & getting the ball in traffic is top-notch -- amazing! His drops are befuddling. (I suspect there's a physical component such as turning his head or running on his heels, or such.) One reason the drops stand out is because the Browns aren't the Indy Colts and have zero margin for error. Still, most of the drops occur on routine plays.

He doesn't have Moss's ability to constantly get free 40 yds downfield. How Moss does it, I don't know!

Cleveland had to move him. He was becoming too much trouble to the team. If the NY media doesn't crucify him and he regains a positive attitude, he'll produce once he & Sanchez develop a rapport.

 

[MPhilly03]

The Count section of the today's WSJ addresses this topic. They point out that "receivers' catch rates were sometimes more a function of the team they play for than their own hands." Two examples were Wes Welker and Chris Chambers who after leaving Miami (and subpar QB's) saw a dramatic increase in receptions per dropped passes.

Not sure if the same would apply for Edwards but if Sanchez is a "better" QB than Quinn/Edwards then it might happen.

 

[Bob Magaw]

another point i'm not sure has been made a lot...

while edwards had winslow in '08, stallworth was a pretty unreliable WR2...

cotchery is having a breakout season, & keller is a promising TE...

that combo could take more pressure off edwards, & make it more difficult for defenses to double team him...

also, edwards could be a formidable red zone weapon if used in the right way... if the jets defense is better than the browns (it appears so), that SHOULD translate directly to better field position & more red zone opportunities...

 

[Franknbeans]

those are lots of words for a Braylon Edwards thread

 

[Bob Magaw]

while an admitted intanglible, going up against darrelle revis regularly in practice could bring out the competitiveness and best in edwards, not to mention helping hone & refine his separation chops...

revis is starting to look like not just the best young CB in the league, but maybe the best period (charles woodson & champ bailey might have something to say about that)...