Breaking down the AFC Playoff Picture (1 Viewer)

[The_Man]

With 3-game leads and 4 games remaining, Indy and San Diego have virtually clinched division titles. New England is pretty secure with a 2-game lead. I think the Ravens' lead will be down to 1 game after this Sunday, but their easy remaining schedule should let them hang on.

Here’s how I see the division winners' remaining games going:

SD (14-2)

Den - W

KC - W

@Sea - W

AZ - W

INDY (13-3)

@Jax - L

Cin - W

@Hou - W

Mia - W

NE (12-4)

@Mia - W

Hou - W

@Jax - L

@Ten - W

Bal (11-5)

@KC - L

Cle - W

@ Pit - L

Buf - W

That leaves the five 7-5 teams fighting for two Wild Card spots. I think four of those teams go 3-1 to finish in a 4-way tie at 10-6 (with Denver losing @ SD and home vs. Cincy to drop to 9-7).

In that scenario, the Bengals have a great chance to be the #5 seed because of their superior AFC record. But they’ll have to win 2 of their final 3 games vs. tough opponents. I’m sure Pittsburgh would love nothing better than to go into Cincy and end the Bengals’ season for the second straight year.

Cin (10-6; 8-4 AFC, beat KC h2h)

Oak - W

@Ind - L

@Den - W

Pit - W

If that scenario does play out, then Cincy gets the #5 seed based on its 8-4 AFC record, and would face Baltimore in the first round. That would be a great matchup.

The other remaining 10-6 AFC teams would be Jax, the Jets, and KC. Based on my predictions, Jacksonville and the Jets would both be 7-5 in the AFC, eliminating KC with a 6-6 conference record. Then, the head-to-head tie-breaker would apply and Jax would advance based on its 41-0 demolition of the Jets in Week 5. I’ve give the Jags the benefit of the doubt that they can continue their great home play and beat both Indy and the Patriots in the coming week, but that might be optimistic.

Jax (10-6; 7-5 AFC, beat NYJ, plays KC in Week 17)

Indy - W

@Ten - W

NE - W

@KC - L

NYJ (10-6; 7-5 AFC, lost to Jax)

Buf - W

@Min - W

@Mia - L

Oak - W

KC (10-6; 6-6 AFC, lost to Cincy, plays Jax in Week 17)

Bal – W

@SD - L

@Oak - W

Jax - W

DEN (9-7, 7-5 AFC; split with KC, projected L to Cincy)

@SD - L

@AZ - W

Cinc - L

SF - W

The Cincy at Denver game in Week 16 and the Jax @ KC game in Week 17 will be huge for the Wild Card.

 

[Despyzer]

SD (14-2)

I hope you're right. The Chargers have never won more than a dozen games in a season... ever.

 

[LBH]

If NE beats Miami this sunday then the Jets will likely be out of the division race. If they lose and the Jets beat the Bills, the Jets are still very much alive in the division race. Miami has caused NE problems at Miami in recent years. It should also be noted that the last 4 weeks the Jets have been getting much better on Defense. I think the Bengals and Jets will get the wild cards, but im a Jets homer

 

[The_Man]

I think the Jets have a good Wild Card shot, too, though the head-to-head loss to Jacksonville might really hurt.

The Jets need New England to lose this week to have a shot at the division; if the Jets run the table and New England loses this week and one more game, then the Jets would win the East based on division record.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If NE beats Miami this sunday then the Jets will likely be out of the division race. If they lose and the Jets beat the Bills, the Jets are still very much alive in the division race. Miami has caused NE problems at Miami in recent years. It should also be noted that the last 4 weeks the Jets have been getting much better on Defense. I think the Bengals and Jets will get the wild cards, but im a Jets homer

THis is correct. The Patriots will have the tiebreaker over the Jets if they both go 5-1 in the AFCEast. So a loss by the Patriots to the Dolphins is much bigger than a loss to the Jaguars, since a loss to the Jaguars is actually meaningless (because the Patriots would have the tiebreaker still, and would need to lose TWO additional games to the Jacksonville game, and there would only be two games left.)

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think the Jets have a good Wild Card shot, too, though the head-to-head loss to Jacksonville might really hurt.

The Jets need New England to lose this week to have a shot at the division; if the Jets run the table and New England loses this week and one more game, then the Jets would win the East based on division record.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=203I looked at each team's chances of making the playoffs there. I used a formula that wasn't perfect, and it probably inflated Cincinnati's chances because they don't really have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. Additionally, it's questionable whether Jacksonville is as good as Sagarin's ratings claim.

That being said, I think those expected wins are pretty accurated. If I was to tier the remaining teams, I'd put the Bengals and Jets in tier 1 as "very good chances of making the playoffs", the Jaguars and Broncos in tier 2 as "possible chance" and the Chiefs as a longshot in tier 3. The Chiefs lost to the Browns was devastating, and the Jags and Broncos will be in very bad straights if they lose to Indy and SD, while the Jets and Bengals beat the Bills and Raiders.

The two big games to watch this weekend are the Jets-Bills and Jacksonville-Indy, because those are the ones most up in the air.

 

[The_Man]

Just did some more East figuring:

If the Jets run the table, they finish 5-1 in the division. The Pats are currently 4-1 in the division, so obviously if they lose to Miami, they'll finish 4-2. That would give the Jets the edge in a head-to-head tie.

But, if the Pats beat Miami for a 5-1 division record, they could still lose the East if the Jets run the table to finish in an 11-5 tie. Right now the Pats have a +1 advantage vs. Common Opponents, based on their win and the jets' loss vs. Chicago.

But the Jets have already beaten the Titans, so if New England loses 2 or its last 3 (e.g., @Jax and @ Ten) then the Jets and Pats will finished tied vs. Common Opponents.

Next tie-breaker is AFC record -- is this scearnio, the Jets run the table to finish 8-4 in the AFC and the Pats lose to 2 more AFC teams to go 7-5 in the conference.

The more I look at it, the more it looks like the Jets win the East if they finish tied with the Pats, regardless of who NE loses to. But I still don't think it's all that likely that the Jets go 4-0 AND the Pats go 2-2.

 

[LBH]

If NE beats Miami this sunday then the Jets will likely be out of the division race. If they lose and the Jets beat the Bills, the Jets are still very much alive in the division race. Miami has caused NE problems at Miami in recent years. It should also be noted that the last 4 weeks the Jets have been getting much better on Defense. I think the Bengals and Jets will get the wild cards, but im a Jets homer

THis is correct. The Patriots will have the tiebreaker over the Jets if they both go 5-1 in the AFCEast. So a loss by the Patriots to the Dolphins is much bigger than a loss to the Jaguars, since a loss to the Jaguars is actually meaningless (because the Patriots would have the tiebreaker still, and would need to lose TWO additional games to the Jacksonville game, and there would only be two games left.)

The Jets have two iffy games left imo, with the Bills and Dolphins. I honestly believe they will run the table if they beat the Bills in the Meadowlands sunday. The nice thing about the Jets this year is that they seem to be getting a little better each week, unlike years past when they started out strong and crawled into the playoffs. The only exception i can think of was the 98 season when they were playing well all season with Vinny at qb.

 

[The_Man]

The two big games to watch this weekend are the Jets-Bills and Jacksonville-Indy, because those are the ones most up in the air.

I'd add Baltimore-KC to that list. If KC wins (and they're favored by 3) they take a giant step toward reaching the playoffs. Also, a Ravens loss puts the Bengals back in the hunt for the North.

 

[B-Scott]

Steeler fan here. We would be in that mix had we not blown those games early in the season against the Raiders,Atlanta and the bengals. Just getting one of those games would put them in the mix.

 

[The Jacket]

Steeler fan here. We would be in that mix had we not blown those games early in the season against the Raiders,Atlanta and the bengals. Just getting one of those games would put them in the mix.

No offense, but that's kind of a worthless statement.The Chiefs would be in the driving seat for a high seed if they hadn't blown games against the Dolphins and Browns along with losing by 3 in overtime to the Broncos because it was Damon Huard's first game.This reminds me of another gem I got from a Steeler fan yesterday: "if we didn't turn it over, we'd be great."

 

[The Jacket]

Jax (10-6; 7-5 AFC, beat NYJ, plays KC in Week 17)

Indy - W

@Ten - W

NE - W

@KC - L

NYJ (10-6; 7-5 AFC, lost to Jax)

Buf - W

@Min - W

@Mia - L

Oak - W

KC (10-6; 6-6 AFC, lost to Cincy, plays Jax in Week 17)

Bal – W

@SD - L

@Oak - W

Jax - W

DEN (9-7, 7-5 AFC; split with KC, projected L to Cincy)

@SD - L

@AZ - W

Cinc - L

SF - W

The Cincy at Denver game in Week 16 and the Jax @ KC game in Week 17 will be huge for the Wild Card.

Jacksonville - disagree. I see 2-2 at an absolute best. If I had to put money on it, 1-3.New York - agree. They'll drop one of the four cupcakes they have left.

KC - agree. If they go 2-2, the loss will be at Oakland. I see no problems for them beating Jacksonville and Baltimore at Arrowhead.

Denver - agree. 2-2 with wins against the cupcakes.

Cincy - disagree. I don't see them winning 3 of 4. They'll drop one of Denver/Pittsburgh along with the Indy game, imo.

 

[Big Score]

Steeler fan here. We would be in that mix had we not blown those games early in the season against the Raiders,Atlanta and the bengals. Just getting one of those games would put them in the mix.

Yes, but the Steelers were outplayed in those games, so they're not in the mix. So sorry, so sad, sux to be a Steelers fan this year.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If NE beats Miami this sunday then the Jets will likely be out of the division race. If they lose and the Jets beat the Bills, the Jets are still very much alive in the division race. Miami has caused NE problems at Miami in recent years. It should also be noted that the last 4 weeks the Jets have been getting much better on Defense. I think the Bengals and Jets will get the wild cards, but im a Jets homer

THis is correct. The Patriots will have the tiebreaker over the Jets if they both go 5-1 in the AFCEast. So a loss by the Patriots to the Dolphins is much bigger than a loss to the Jaguars, since a loss to the Jaguars is actually meaningless (because the Patriots would have the tiebreaker still, and would need to lose TWO additional games to the Jacksonville game, and there would only be two games left.)

The Jets have two iffy games left imo, with the Bills and Dolphins. I honestly believe they will run the table if they beat the Bills in the Meadowlands sunday. The nice thing about the Jets this year is that they seem to be getting a little better each week, unlike years past when they started out strong and crawled into the playoffs. The only exception i can think of was the 98 season when they were playing well all season with Vinny at qb.

I probably still wouldn't expect them to run the table, although it would be close. I don't think I would give them a greater than 70% chance of beating either Miami or Minnesota, much less both, and that doesn't even include the Oakland game.2002 was Pennington's first year, and obviously they finished much stronger than they started. 1999 they finished great, but missed the playoffs. 2000 was a bit misleading, but that was a poor finish. 2001 they finished alright, and 2004 was also a bit misleading, but was a poor finish.2000 is the one that I have a hard time getting over. I guess part of that is it's the last time the Jets were close to making the playoffs and missed it, but that win over Indianapolis really made it near impossible to miss the playoffs. They would need 6 games to go exactly the opposite way, and it happened. This was equalized though by 2002, when they needed 5 games to go exactly their way, and it did.

 

[Chase Stuart]

A cool site with some relevant information:

http://www.coolstandings.com/football/foot...andings.asp?i=1

 

[LBH]

If NE beats Miami this sunday then the Jets will likely be out of the division race. If they lose and the Jets beat the Bills, the Jets are still very much alive in the division race. Miami has caused NE problems at Miami in recent years. It should also be noted that the last 4 weeks the Jets have been getting much better on Defense. I think the Bengals and Jets will get the wild cards, but im a Jets homer

THis is correct. The Patriots will have the tiebreaker over the Jets if they both go 5-1 in the AFCEast. So a loss by the Patriots to the Dolphins is much bigger than a loss to the Jaguars, since a loss to the Jaguars is actually meaningless (because the Patriots would have the tiebreaker still, and would need to lose TWO additional games to the Jacksonville game, and there would only be two games left.)

The Jets have two iffy games left imo, with the Bills and Dolphins. I honestly believe they will run the table if they beat the Bills in the Meadowlands sunday. The nice thing about the Jets this year is that they seem to be getting a little better each week, unlike years past when they started out strong and crawled into the playoffs. The only exception i can think of was the 98 season when they were playing well all season with Vinny at qb.

I probably still wouldn't expect them to run the table, although it would be close. I don't think I would give them a greater than 70% chance of beating either Miami or Minnesota, much less both, and that doesn't even include the Oakland game.2002 was Pennington's first year, and obviously they finished much stronger than they started. 1999 they finished great, but missed the playoffs. 2000 was a bit misleading, but that was a poor finish. 2001 they finished alright, and 2004 was also a bit misleading, but was a poor finish.2000 is the one that I have a hard time getting over. I guess part of that is it's the last time the Jets were close to making the playoffs and missed it, but that win over Indianapolis really made it near impossible to miss the playoffs. They would need 6 games to go exactly the opposite way, and it happened. This was equalized though by 2002, when they needed 5 games to go exactly their way, and it did.

Even though they finished ok by beating oakland in the finale in 01, i thought they struggled in a few games late in that season. I guess what I like about this team over the others is that I have confidance in the coaching philosophies, and the stability at QB. Jet teams in recent years have streaked(both winning and losing) as a result of qb changes ,whether it be because of ineffectiveness or injury. Herm Edwards was a nightmare, and despite his decent record compared to other Jet coaches, I never really had confidance in his ability to manage games, or game plan vs. the opposition. Hope Mangini and Shottenheimer are a part of this organization for a long time. Don't think BS will be there long though. Hes a great OC imo

 

[Despyzer]

Steeler fan here. We would be in that mix had we not blown those games early in the season against the Raiders,Atlanta and the bengals. Just getting one of those games would put them in the mix.

No offense, but that's kind of a worthless statement.The Chiefs would be in the driving seat for a high seed if they hadn't blown games against the Dolphins and Browns along with losing by 3 in overtime to the Broncos because it was Damon Huard's first game.This reminds me of another gem I got from a Steeler fan yesterday: "if we didn't turn it over, we'd be great."

And the Chargers would be undefeated if not for losses at Baltimore and Kansas City (both by FGs).... but they're not.

 

[The Jacket]

And the Chargers would be undefeated if not for losses at Baltimore and Kansas City (both by FGs).... but they're not.

Well, uh, yeah. The point doesn't change for any team, but great example.

 

[bjabrad]

JAX will have a hard time winning any of their last four games (IND, @ TEN, NE and @ KC), it's just a hard schedule. I see them going 1-3 and finishing 8-8.

NYJ has the best shot (BUF, @MIN, @MIA, OAK) of winning 3 of four, @MIA looks to be the toughest. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.

CIN (OAK, @IND, @DEN, PIT) could easily lose it's last three games and thinking that they should be favored in DEN is ridiculous. I see them going 2-2 to make them 9-7.

KC (BAL, @SD, @OAK, JAX) will probably rebound this week at home vs BAL but a loss wouldn't surprise me either and they will be underdogs at SD, and favored at OAK and vs JAX. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.

DEN (@SD, @AZ, CIN, SF) will be favored to win every game except @ SD. I see them going 3-1 and finishing at 10-6.

This leaves NYJ, KC and DEN all tied at 10-6 and although I just read how the wildcard tiebreaker is decided between three teams, my head exploded and I have no idea what it all means.

 

[Black&Gold]

Steeler fan here. We would be in that mix had we not blown those games early in the season against the Raiders,Atlanta and the bengals. Just getting one of those games would put them in the mix.

Yes, but the Steelers were outplayed in those games, so they're not in the mix. So sorry, so sad, sux to be a Steelers fan this year.

I agree. We didn't get it done this year. BUT, I don't think the Steelers are out of it yet. Denver and New York have the easiest schedules left. Denver is starting a rookie who just started starting last week, and do you really trust the Jets? Last I heard, if the Steelers win out and these five teams lose 2 of 4, we're in. I'm not sure, but that is what is being reported around here. Not impossible.

 

[Chase Stuart]

JAX will have a hard time winning any of their last four games (IND, @ TEN, NE and @ KC), it's just a hard schedule. I see them going 1-3 and finishing 8-8.NYJ has the best shot (BUF, @MIN, @MIA, OAK) of winning 3 of four, @MIA looks to be the toughest. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.CIN (OAK, @IND, @DEN, PIT) could easily lose it's last three games and thinking that they should be favored in DEN is ridiculous. I see them going 2-2 to make them 9-7.KC (BAL, @SD, @OAK, JAX) will probably rebound this week at home vs BAL but a loss wouldn't surprise me either and they will be underdogs at SD, and favored at OAK and vs JAX. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.DEN (@SD, @AZ, CIN, SF) will be favored to win every game except @ SD. I see them going 3-1 and finishing at 10-6.This leaves NYJ, KC and DEN all tied at 10-6 and although I just read how the wildcard tiebreaker is decided between three teams, my head exploded and I have no idea what it all means.

I agree with you that the winner of the Broncos-Bengals game is going to be in. That's clearly the most important game remaining in the AFC WC picture. I don't have any faith in the Chiefs, and I think they're more likely to go 1-3 than 3-1.

 

[Chase Stuart]

and do you really trust the Jets?

Can you expand on this, B&G?

 

[jonessed]

Steeler fan here. We would be in that mix had we not blown those games early in the season against the Raiders,Atlanta and the bengals. Just getting one of those games would put them in the mix.

Yes, but the Steelers were outplayed in those games, so they're not in the mix. So sorry, so sad, sux to be a Steelers fan this year.

I agree. We didn't get it done this year. BUT, I don't think the Steelers are out of it yet. Denver and New York have the easiest schedules left. Denver is starting a rookie who just started starting last week, and do you really trust the Jets? Last I heard, if the Steelers win out and these five teams lose 2 of 4, we're in. I'm not sure, but that is what is being reported around here. Not impossible.

Steelers' AFC record is awful. Even if they win out the odds are heavily against them. I don't know where you are getting your information from.

 

[The Jacket]

I don't have any faith in the Chiefs, and I think they're more likely to go 1-3 than 3-1.

With 2 games at home, it's much more likely that they go 3-1 than 1-3.To go 1-3, the Chiefs would have to lose at least one home game AND(/or) against the Raiders.Faith is in the eye of the beholder. If you allow one road game against the Browns to sway you, so be it. But that would've been foolish had we allowed the Jets embarrassing loss to the Jags to do the same. I mean, at least with the Chiefs you know they're more than capable of beating good teams. If it wasn't for the Jets' fluke against an overrated New England team playing mediocre football, they'd have nothing but J.V. wins all season.

 

[Black&Gold]

JAX will have a hard time winning any of their last four games (IND, @ TEN, NE and @ KC), it's just a hard schedule. I see them going 1-3 and finishing 8-8.NYJ has the best shot (BUF, @MIN, @MIA, OAK) of winning 3 of four, @MIA looks to be the toughest. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.CIN (OAK, @IND, @DEN, PIT) could easily lose it's last three games and thinking that they should be favored in DEN is ridiculous. I see them going 2-2 to make them 9-7.KC (BAL, @SD, @OAK, JAX) will probably rebound this week at home vs BAL but a loss wouldn't surprise me either and they will be underdogs at SD, and favored at OAK and vs JAX. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.DEN (@SD, @AZ, CIN, SF) will be favored to win every game except @ SD. I see them going 3-1 and finishing at 10-6.This leaves NYJ, KC and DEN all tied at 10-6 and although I just read how the wildcard tiebreaker is decided between three teams, my head exploded and I have no idea what it all means.

I agree with you that the winner of the Broncos-Bengals game is going to be in. That's clearly the most important game remaining in the AFC WC picture. I don't have any faith in the Chiefs, and I think they're more likely to go 1-3 than 3-1.

With the Jets schedule, I think they'll probably make the playoffs as I think they'll beat Oakland and 2 of the other 3. But to me, they seem to play great some weeks, and really bad others. They've had a revolving door at RB, and Pennington has really lost some in the cold weather. I'm not holding out much hope for the Steelers to make the playoffs this year, but they aren't dead yet. They've dug their own grave when they are out of it because not many teams HAVE outplayed them this year. They've beat themselves.

 

[David Yudkin]

JAX will have a hard time winning any of their last four games (IND, @ TEN, NE and @ KC), it's just a hard schedule. I see them going 1-3 and finishing 8-8.NYJ has the best shot (BUF, @MIN, @MIA, OAK) of winning 3 of four, @MIA looks to be the toughest. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.CIN (OAK, @IND, @DEN, PIT) could easily lose it's last three games and thinking that they should be favored in DEN is ridiculous. I see them going 2-2 to make them 9-7.KC (BAL, @SD, @OAK, JAX) will probably rebound this week at home vs BAL but a loss wouldn't surprise me either and they will be underdogs at SD, and favored at OAK and vs JAX. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.DEN (@SD, @AZ, CIN, SF) will be favored to win every game except @ SD. I see them going 3-1 and finishing at 10-6.This leaves NYJ, KC and DEN all tied at 10-6 and although I just read how the wildcard tiebreaker is decided between three teams, my head exploded and I have no idea what it all means.

I agree with you that the winner of the Broncos-Bengals game is going to be in. That's clearly the most important game remaining in the AFC WC picture. I don't have any faith in the Chiefs, and I think they're more likely to go 1-3 than 3-1.

With the Jets schedule, I think they'll probably make the playoffs as I think they'll beat Oakland and 2 of the other 3. But to me, they seem to play great some weeks, and really bad others. They've had a revolving door at RB, and Pennington has really lost some in the cold weather. I'm not holding out much hope for the Steelers to make the playoffs this year, but they aren't dead yet. They've dug their own grave when they are out of it because not many teams HAVE outplayed them this year. They've beat themselves.

I would be shocked if the Steelers somehow made the playoffs. There are 5 teams at 7-5 fighting for two WC spots, so if two of them go 3-1 then PIT is out automatically (and that's assuming they win out @CAR, vs BAL, and @CIN).Here are the remaining schedules for the teams in question:NYJ (BUF, @MIN, @MIA, OAK)DEN (@SD, @ARI, CIN, SF)KC (BAL, @SD, @OAK, JAC)JAC (IND, @TEN, NE, @KC)CIN (OAK, @IND, @DEN, PIT)If the Steelers did win out, they would be 6-6 in conference games. If it came down to a conference tie breaker (and who knows if it would):NYJ is currently 6-4 in conferenceCIN is currently 5-3 in conferenceJAC is currently 4-4 in conferenceKC is currently 3-5 in conferenceDEN is currently 7-3 in conferencePersonally, I don't see the Steelers winning out, which would bury them right there.

 

[Bayhawks]

JAX will have a hard time winning any of their last four games (IND, @ TEN, NE and @ KC), it's just a hard schedule. I see them going 1-3 and finishing 8-8.NYJ has the best shot (BUF, @MIN, @MIA, OAK) of winning 3 of four, @MIA looks to be the toughest. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.CIN (OAK, @IND, @DEN, PIT) could easily lose it's last three games and thinking that they should be favored in DEN is ridiculous. I see them going 2-2 to make them 9-7.KC (BAL, @SD, @OAK, JAX) will probably rebound this week at home vs BAL but a loss wouldn't surprise me either and they will be underdogs at SD, and favored at OAK and vs JAX. I see them going 3-1 and finishing 10-6.DEN (@SD, @AZ, CIN, SF) will be favored to win every game except @ SD. I see them going 3-1 and finishing at 10-6.This leaves NYJ, KC and DEN all tied at 10-6 and although I just read how the wildcard tiebreaker is decided between three teams, my head exploded and I have no idea what it all means.

I agree with you that the winner of the Broncos-Bengals game is going to be in. That's clearly the most important game remaining in the AFC WC picture. I don't have any faith in the Chiefs, and I think they're more likely to go 1-3 than 3-1.

With the Jets schedule, I think they'll probably make the playoffs as I think they'll beat Oakland and 2 of the other 3. But to me, they seem to play great some weeks, and really bad others. They've had a revolving door at RB, and Pennington has really lost some in the cold weather. I'm not holding out much hope for the Steelers to make the playoffs this year, but they aren't dead yet. They've dug their own grave when they are out of it because not many teams HAVE outplayed them this year. They've beat themselves.

I would be shocked if the Steelers somehow made the playoffs. There are 5 teams at 7-5 fighting for two WC spots, so if two of them go 3-1 then PIT is out automatically (and that's assuming they win out @CAR, vs BAL, and @CIN).Here are the remaining schedules for the teams in question:NYJ (BUF, @MIN, @MIA, OAK)DEN (@SD, @ARI, CIN, SF)KC (BAL, @SD, @OAK, JAC)JAC (IND, @TEN, NE, @KC)CIN (OAK, @IND, @DEN, PIT)If the Steelers did win out, they would be 6-6 in conference games. If it came down to a conference tie breaker (and who knows if it would):NYJ is currently 6-4 in conferenceCIN is currently 5-3 in conferenceJAC is currently 4-4 in conferenceKC is currently 3-5 in conferenceDEN is currently 7-3 in conferencePersonally, I don't see the Steelers winning out, which would bury them right there.

I recently moved to Pittsburgh, and I have heard sports radio hosts debating the Steelers playoff chances, so yesterday (slow day at work) I spent a few hours messing around with the playoff scenarios for Pittsburgh.First, it is a VERY long shot for them to make the playoffs, but it is possible. A couple of things would have to happen.1) Steelers win out-no matter what, this has to happen2) Steelers could win their division, IF the Ravens lose out, and Cincy finishes 1-3. This would give the Ravens and the Steelers 9-7 records, with Cincy at 8-8. If the Steelers win out, they beat the Ravens in their second game, thus eliminating the head-to-head tiebreaker. The next tiebreaker is division record. The Steelers would be 4-2 in their division, and the Ravens would be 3-3 (since they would have to lose to both Cleveland and Pittsburgh to lose out). BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE EASIEST WAY FOR THE STEELERS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.3) Cincy, Den, and Jags go 1-3, while Chiefs go 2-2. NYJ gets the # seed (based on how I think their remaining schedule will go) -Cincy should beat Oakland, and I think they will lose to Indy. For these Steeler playoff scenarios to matter, they have to lose to the Steelers, so that leaves Denver-I'm not sure the Broncos will beat Cincy, unless Cutler REALLY steps it up. -Denver (I think) will lose to SD, and for these scenarios to work, they have to beat Cincy, so that means they must lose to Arizona and San Francisco? I don't think this will happen -Jax will (I think) lose to Indy and NE, and I think KC will beat them, as well, so if they beat the Titans, they will finisht he year 1-3. -KC should (IMO) lose to Baltimore and SD, and beat Oakland. According to the Jax scenario above, they would finish 2-2.If all these scenarios play out, the Steelers and KC will finish at 9-7, tied for the #6 seed. If that happens, Pittsburgh gets the #6 seed based on their head-to-head win. If either Denver or Cincy also goes 2-2, then the Steelers would lose tie-breakers to either of them.So, based on the way I think these teams' remaining games go (and I'm no expert), the Steelers, while still alive, are a REAL long-shot to make the playoffs.

 

[Black&Gold]

Nice analysis. That's all I've been saying. Though the Steelers chances of making it are slim to say the least, they aren't dead. The five teams ahead of them don't have the easiest schedules left. I think the hardest thing for the Steelers to do will be to win out. If San Diego can go through the playoffs without having to play IN New England, I think the Chargers are going to the Super Bowl.

 

[Despyzer]

If San Diego can go through the playoffs without having to play IN New England, I think the Chargers are going to the Super Bowl.

And the Chargers destroyed the Patriots in New England last year.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

With 3-game leads and 4 games remaining, Indy and San Diego have virtually clinched division titles. New England is pretty secure with a 2-game lead. I think the Ravens' lead will be down to 1 game after this Sunday, but their easy remaining schedule should let them hang on.

Here’s how I see the division winners' remaining games going:

SD (14-2)

Den - W

KC - W

@Sea - W

AZ - W

INDY (13-3)

@Jax - L

Cin - W

@Hou - W

Mia - W

NE (12-4)

@Mia - W

Hou - W

@Jax - L

@Ten - W

Bal (11-5)

@KC - L

Cle - W

@ Pit - L

Buf - W

That leaves the five 7-5 teams fighting for two Wild Card spots. I think four of those teams go 3-1 to finish in a 4-way tie at 10-6 (with Denver losing @ SD and home vs. Cincy to drop to 9-7).

In that scenario, the Bengals have a great chance to be the #5 seed because of their superior AFC record. But they’ll have to win 2 of their final 3 games vs. tough opponents. I’m sure Pittsburgh would love nothing better than to go into Cincy and end the Bengals’ season for the second straight year.

Cin (10-6; 8-4 AFC, beat KC h2h)

Oak - W

@Ind - L

@Den - W

Pit - W

Jax (10-6; 7-5 AFC, beat NYJ, plays KC in Week 17)

Indy - W

@Ten - W

NE - W

@KC - L

NYJ (10-6; 7-5 AFC, lost to Jax)

Buf - W

@Min - W

@Mia - L

Oak - W

KC (10-6; 6-6 AFC, lost to Cincy, plays Jax in Week 17)

Bal – W

@SD - L

@Oak - W

Jax - W

The Cincy at Denver game in Week 16 and the Jax @ KC game in Week 17 will be huge for the Wild Card.

Nice breakdown. I think the Jets will lose two of their next three however and asking JAX to beat both the Pats and Colts at home will be tough since they are such a Jekyll and Hyde team. Also don't think SD will win @ Seattle. Besides that I pretty much agree with your breakdown prediction. Based on this I think the Chiefs will be the #6 team. Whatever the case the AFC playoff games will be amazing. If JAX gets in instead of KC I could see any of the six teams getting to the Super Bowl but I still like what I've seen from the Chargers. If their defense holds and Marty doesn't get too conservative with the offense with a lead they are gonna be very tough to beat. Homefield doesn't matter with the Colts either IMO. SD has the team speed to win on that turf and keep up with Peyton.

 

[Black&Gold]

If San Diego can go through the playoffs without having to play IN New England, I think the Chargers are going to the Super Bowl.

And the Chargers destroyed the Patriots in New England last year.

That was last year and it wasn't the playoffs. I was happy to see that the Steelers didn't have to play in New England last season in the playoffs.

 

[AIKENS BACON]

I was at the Steeler game on Thursday. Here is another scenario for the Steelers! a LONG SHOT!

By Mike Prisuta

TRIBUNE-REVIEW

Thursday, December 7, 2006

The Steelers' official mantra the rest of the way is to "take this one game at a time and let the chips fall where they may."

So says Bill Cowher, who all but officially wrote his team off following the Nov. 26 debacle in Baltimore but is now leaving the door open just a crack.

To extend their season, the Steelers have to beat not only Cleveland tonight at Heinz Field, but also Carolina, Baltimore and Cincinnati in succession and then hope for a myriad of chips to fall just right.

It's a lot to ask for, enough that if the subject comes up again Cowher ought to respond with his best Jim Mora ("PLAYOFFS?") impersonation before moving on to more legitimate considerations.

Just for the sake of argument, let's assume for the moment that the Steelers finish 4-0 and wind up at 9-7.

What else has to happen?

Glad you asked, because under the following scenario the Steelers can actually sneak into the playoffs ("PLAYOFFS?") just as they did a year ago:

• The New York Jets (7-5) lose to Buffalo, at Minnesota and at Miami, and beat Oakland to finish 8-8.

• The Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) beat Oakland but lose at Indianapolis, at Denver and at home to the Steelers and finish 8-8.

• The Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5) lose to Indianapolis, win at Tennessee, lose to New England, lose at Kansas City and finish 8-8.

• The Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) lose to Baltimore, lose at San Diego, win at Oakland, beat Jacksonville and finish 9-7.

• The Denver Broncos (7-5) lose at San Diego, win at Arizona, beat Cincinnati and beat San Francisco to finish 10-6.

If all of that somehow transpires, the Steelers would be tied with the Chiefs and advance as the AFC's No. 6 seed based on head-to-head superiority over Kansas City.

Such a potential eventuality also would require Buffalo, Miami and Tennessee (all 5-7) to lose one more game.

Buffalo and Miami still meet, as do Buffalo and Tennessee.

Simple, isn't it?

There are other scenarios, presumably, but this one appears to be the most realistic.

The critical games involved are the Bills at the Jets this Sunday, the Jaguars at the Chiefs on Dec. 31 and the Bengals at the Broncos on Christmas Eve.

The Steelers likely won't be able to survive a tie with the Jets at 9-7 (conference record), and will need to finish ahead of the Jaguars and tied with the Chiefs (head-to-head).

They'll also require the Broncos to beat the Bengals with Jay Cutler at quarterback.

And, of course, the Steelers have to hold up their end.

That might be the reach of all reaches given that the Steelers haven't won more than two consecutive games all season.

For now, it's reason enough to take 'em one at a time and hope the chips fall as required.

Mike Prisuta is a columnist for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

 

[Despyzer]

If San Diego can go through the playoffs without having to play IN New England, I think the Chargers are going to the Super Bowl.

And the Chargers destroyed the Patriots in New England last year.

That was last year.

Really? I had no idea. Thanks for that information. For what it's worth, the Chargers are a much better team this year. The Chargers couldn't have played the Patriots in the playoffs because San Diego didn't even get there.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I don't have any faith in the Chiefs, and I think they're more likely to go 1-3 than 3-1.

With 2 games at home, it's much more likely that they go 3-1 than 1-3.To go 1-3, the Chiefs would have to lose at least one home game AND(/or) against the Raiders.

Faith is in the eye of the beholder. If you allow one road game against the Browns to sway you, so be it. But that would've been foolish had we allowed the Jets embarrassing loss to the Jags to do the same.

I mean, at least with the Chiefs you know they're more than capable of beating good teams. If it wasn't for the Jets' fluke against an overrated New England team playing mediocre football, they'd have nothing but J.V. wins all season.

I don't think the Chiefs are better than the Ravens, Jaguars or Chargers. I don't know what would make anybody expect them to win in San Diego, and while they'll be at home against the Ravens and Jags, I think both of those teams are better than the Chiefs. If that Jaguars game is meaningful for the Jags and Chiefs -- which it possibly won't be -- I think the Jaguars would win it. I think you've been swayed by the incredibly easy schedule the Chiefs have played. And "if it wasn't for the Chiefs' fluke wins against San Diego and an overrated Denver team playing bad football, they'd have nothing but J.V. wins all season." :eyeroll:

(Chiefs schedule ranked 26th: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl06.htm)

 

[Couch Potato]

That leaves the five 7-5 teams fighting for two Wild Card spots. I think four of those teams go 3-1 to finish in a 4-way tie at 10-6 (with Denver losing @ SD and home vs. Cincy to drop to 9-7).In that scenario, the Bengals have a great chance to be the #5 seed because of their superior AFC record. But they’ll have to win 2 of their final 3 games vs. tough opponents. I’m sure Pittsburgh would love nothing better than to go into Cincy and end the Bengals’ season for the second straight year.Cin (10-6; 8-4 AFC, beat KC h2h)Oak - W@Ind - L@Den - WPit - WIf that scenario does play out, then Cincy gets the #5 seed based on its 8-4 AFC record, and would face Baltimore in the first round. That would be a great matchup.The other remaining 10-6 AFC teams would be Jax, the Jets, and KC. Based on my predictions, Jacksonville and the Jets would both be 7-5 in the AFC, eliminating KC with a 6-6 conference record. Then, the head-to-head tie-breaker would apply and Jax would advance based on its 41-0 demolition of the Jets in Week 5. I’ve give the Jags the benefit of the doubt that they can continue their great home play and beat both Indy and the Patriots in the coming week, but that might be optimistic.Jax (10-6; 7-5 AFC, beat NYJ, plays KC in Week 17)Indy - W@Ten - WNE - W@KC - LNYJ (10-6; 7-5 AFC, lost to Jax)Buf - W@Min - W@Mia - LOak - WKC (10-6; 6-6 AFC, lost to Cincy, plays Jax in Week 17)Bal – W@SD - L@Oak - WJax - WDEN (9-7, 7-5 AFC; split with KC, projected L to Cincy)@SD - L@AZ - WCinc - LSF - WThe Cincy at Denver game in Week 16 and the Jax @ KC game in Week 17 will be huge for the Wild Card.

Intuitively, that's just not realistic. These 7-5 teams are at 58% through 3/4 of the season. To expect 4 of the 5 to go 3-1 (75%), and the 5th 2-2, adds up to 14-6 or 70%. That's jut not going to happen. The list of individual wins and losses assumes too much success IMO. Upsets by inferior teams are a fact in the NFL, as is parity and the likelihood some of these teams are 7-5 due to a weaker schedule to this point than they will see in the next 4 weeks.Instead of a collective 14-6, I'd expect more like 11-9 or 12-8. My own guess would be 11-9, with two teams going 3-1 and making the playoffs at 10-6, two teams going 2-2 to finish at 9-7, and one falling off at 1-3 the rest of the way to end up 8-8.

 

[Chase Stuart]

That leaves the five 7-5 teams fighting for two Wild Card spots. I think four of those teams go 3-1 to finish in a 4-way tie at 10-6 (with Denver losing @ SD and home vs. Cincy to drop to 9-7).In that scenario, the Bengals have a great chance to be the #5 seed because of their superior AFC record. But they’ll have to win 2 of their final 3 games vs. tough opponents. I’m sure Pittsburgh would love nothing better than to go into Cincy and end the Bengals’ season for the second straight year.Cin (10-6; 8-4 AFC, beat KC h2h)Oak - W@Ind - L@Den - WPit - WIf that scenario does play out, then Cincy gets the #5 seed based on its 8-4 AFC record, and would face Baltimore in the first round. That would be a great matchup.The other remaining 10-6 AFC teams would be Jax, the Jets, and KC. Based on my predictions, Jacksonville and the Jets would both be 7-5 in the AFC, eliminating KC with a 6-6 conference record. Then, the head-to-head tie-breaker would apply and Jax would advance based on its 41-0 demolition of the Jets in Week 5. I’ve give the Jags the benefit of the doubt that they can continue their great home play and beat both Indy and the Patriots in the coming week, but that might be optimistic.Jax (10-6; 7-5 AFC, beat NYJ, plays KC in Week 17)Indy - W@Ten - WNE - W@KC - LNYJ (10-6; 7-5 AFC, lost to Jax)Buf - W@Min - W@Mia - LOak - WKC (10-6; 6-6 AFC, lost to Cincy, plays Jax in Week 17)Bal – W@SD - L@Oak - WJax - WDEN (9-7, 7-5 AFC; split with KC, projected L to Cincy)@SD - L@AZ - WCinc - LSF - WThe Cincy at Denver game in Week 16 and the Jax @ KC game in Week 17 will be huge for the Wild Card.

Intuitively, that's just not realistic. These 7-5 teams are at 58% through 3/4 of the season. To expect 4 of the 5 to go 3-1 (75%), and the 5th 2-2, adds up to 14-6 or 70%. That's jut not going to happen. The list of individual wins and losses assumes too much success IMO. Upsets by inferior teams are a fact in the NFL, as is parity and the likelihood some of these teams are 7-5 due to a weaker schedule to this point than they will see in the next 4 weeks.Instead of a collective 14-6, I'd expect more like 11-9 or 12-8. My own guess would be 11-9, with two teams going 3-1 and making the playoffs at 10-6, two teams going 2-2 to finish at 9-7, and one falling off at 1-3 the rest of the way to end up 8-8.

I suppose you're very excited that I've predicted the teams going 11.21-8.79.

Team	  WinsCin   	2.62NYJ	   2.51Jac	   2.48Den	   2.18KC		1.42

 

[Couch Potato]

I suppose you're very excited that I've predicted the teams going 11.21-8.79.

Team	  WinsCin   	2.62NYJ	   2.51Jac	   2.48Den	   2.18KC		1.42

If it was in an earlier post in this thread, I missed it. Admittedly, I scanned the thread fairly quickly. But yes, intuitively what you have here looks just about right. Smart man. Not likely these teams collectively do better than 12-8 and we both see about 11-9, given records to date, the parity in the league/upset factor, and likelihood that some of the records were built on weaker opponent winning % for 3/4 of the seaon than they'll see the last 1/4. Disclaimer on the opponent winning % comment - I have run no numbers to support that contention. It's usually the case though.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I suppose you're very excited that I've predicted the teams going 11.21-8.79.

Team	  WinsCin   	2.62NYJ	   2.51Jac	   2.48Den	   2.18KC		1.42

If it was in an earlier post in this thread, I missed it. Admittedly, I scanned the thread fairly quickly. But yes, intuitively what you have here looks just about right. Smart man. Not likely these teams collectively do better than 12-8 and we both see about 11-9, given records to date, the parity in the league/upset factor, and likelihood that some of the records were built on weaker opponent winning % for 3/4 of the seaon than they'll see the last 1/4. Disclaimer on the opponent winning % comment - I have run no numbers to support that contention. It's usually the case though.

Four games against Indy and SD and four games against each other will make things difficult. As a Jets fan, I'd hope for a 2-6 showing in those games.You have to expect Cincinnati to win and Denver to lose this week, but the Jets, Jaguars and Chiefs are all in tough games (+/- 3.5 points). Tomorrow's going to clear things up a bit.

 

[Despyzer]

But yes, intuitively what you have here looks just about right.

It does? You think the Bengals might go 2.60-1.40 the next four weeks? He was making a joke, man.

 

[Chase Stuart]

But yes, intuitively what you have here looks just about right.

It does? You think the Bengals might go 2.60-1.40 the next four weeks? He was making a joke, man.

Hey buddy. No jokes allowed here. You'll be hearing from the mods about this.

To be perfectly clear, if the Bengals went through the final quarter of the season 100 times, I'd expect them to go about 260-140.

 

[Couch Potato]

But yes, intuitively what you have here looks just about right.

It does? You think the Bengals might go 2.60-1.40 the next four weeks? He was making a joke, man.

Hey buddy. No jokes allowed here. You'll be hearing from the mods about this.

To be perfectly clear, if the Bengals went through the final quarter of the season 100 times, I'd expect them to go about 260-140.

I assumed you were using statistics and probabilities, not making jokes. Anyway, I see your writeup in Drinen's blog now. Interesting read.

 

[The Jacket]

I don't think the Chiefs are better than the Ravens, Jaguars or Chargers.

I disagree. The Chargers are better, but KC has beaten them. And I like them to beat both Baltimore and Jacksonville.

I think you've been swayed by the incredibly easy schedule the Chiefs have played. And "if it wasn't for the Chiefs' fluke wins against San Diego and an overrated Denver team playing bad football, they'd have nothing but J.V. wins all season." :eyeroll:

Not even close to being the case.(1) The Chiefs have beaten 8-4 Seattle, 7-5 Denver and 10-2 San Diego.The Jets, on the other hand, have beaten 9-3 New England. And... 9-3 New England. And... well, that's about it.(2) The Chiefs soundly outplayed both San Diego and Denver. The Broncos were playing bad football. The Patriots were playing terrible football. Anyone that makes the Lions look like an NFL-caliber team isn't worth pimping.What's even more embarrassing is that the Chiefs still play Baltimore, San Diego and Jacksonville. The reality is, they're going to win at the VERY least one of those games. New York plays four more garbage teams, leaving their 10- or 11-win season as a complete, 100% mirage based on terrible opposition.The Chiefs, Broncos, Jags and Bengals will all EARN their playoff spot. Whoever makes it out of that bunch will be far more worthy than the Jets.

 

[Black&Gold]

If San Diego can go through the playoffs without having to play IN New England, I think the Chargers are going to the Super Bowl.

And the Chargers destroyed the Patriots in New England last year.

That was last year.

Really? I had no idea. Thanks for that information. For what it's worth, the Chargers are a much better team this year. The Chargers couldn't have played the Patriots in the playoffs because San Diego didn't even get there.

Don't you see what I'm saying? I also know that the Chargers are a better team this year. I'm picking them for the superbowl. I think they can beat anyone in the AFC. I'm just saying that I wouldn't want to be a SoCal team coming into New England in January.

 

[Despyzer]

Don't you see what I'm saying? I also know that the Chargers are a better team this year. I'm picking them for the superbowl. I think they can beat anyone in the AFC. I'm just saying that I wouldn't want to be a SoCal team coming into New England in January.

Yes, I understood that you were picking SD. I was strengthening your point by mentioning that there is a recent precedent that SD could go into NE and win. Yes, it will probably be tougher going there in the midst of winter, but not everyone who plays for San Diego actually grew up in Southern California. Many of them are used to playing in cold-weather venues.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I disagree. The Chargers are better, but KC has beaten them. And I like them to beat both Baltimore and Jacksonville.(1) The Chiefs have beaten 8-4 Seattle, 7-5 Denver and 10-2 San Diego.

Beating the Seahawks with Seneca Wallace doesn't qualify as a good win.Chiefs got smoked today. Very overrated team.

 

[The Jacket]

Beating the Seahawks with Seneca Wallace doesn't qualify as a good win.

Take it off. Doesn't change the fact that the Jets' only half-decent win all year was a squeeker against a very overrated New England team.Come back to me when the Jets beat, or even play, a team in the same galaxy as the Chargers.You better hope they get the #2 seed, because if you meet them in the playoffs you're going to lose by at least three touchdowns.

 

[BGP]

The Chargers right now are the offensively-oriented AFC contender. Their defense is lacking, as they will surrender around 300 points this season.

You have two defensively-oriented teams in the Ravens and Patriots. They win with their D. If their D fails them, they will struggle.

Then there's the Colts. They are on pace to score a lot of points - 420. They are on pace to allow 363 points. That's just way too much. The most points ever given up by a super bowl champ was 309 by the 1998 Broncos. Offense alone cannot seem to carry the load. The Colts defense has held opponents under 20 points only 3 times all year long.

The only mentionable non-division leader is the Jaguars. They are on pace to score 372 and allow just 235. This is another defensive team like the Patriots and Ravens.

Then you have to throw in the head coaches. The Chargers appear to be fast-tracked for HFA. Marty Schottenheimer is also 5-12 in the playoffs lifetime. And we've seen glaring examples of why that is. Recall the playoff loss to the Jets, where he shuts down his offense late in the game and tries to be too conservative. I dont know how you can ever favor him in a playoff bracket. Conversely, Bill Belichick has directed teams to some stunning upsets in playoff history.

I'd still favor the Patriots until someone ends their season.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'd still favor the Patriots until someone ends their season.

You can pick whomever you want, but at the moment the Pats have a lot of injuries, turn the ball over a ton, and can't find a whole lot on offense. SUre, they'll make the playoffs but if they play like this in the postseason they will be out quickly.

 

[The_Man]

Some things that jump out at me after yesterday:

As long as San Diego beats KC, they are in good shape vs. the Colts in terms of the tie-breaker. But Baltimore owns the head-to-head tie-breaker vs. SD, so the Chargers can’t let up on the gas unless Baltimore loses.

Right now Indy holds the #2 seed over Baltimore, based on Common Opponents (Indy is 2-1 vs. Tenn and Denver; Ravens are 1-1) but if Indy loses to Cincy, then Common Opponents would be 2-2. In that scenario, if the Ravens and Colts finish tied (and the Ravens’ loss is to anyone other than Buffalo) the tiebreaker would become Strength of Victory. The Colts currently hold a two-game edge in that category, but it would really be up for grabs because the Ravens have victories against hot teams like San Diego, New Orleans and Cincy who are likely to keep putting up wins. If the Colts beat Cincy, they basically have the tie-breaker for the second seed well in hand.

New England seems locked in at the #4 seed right now. They have a bad conference record and lost to Indy head-to-head.

The Jets really killed themselves yesterday. They went into the game knowing that with a win, they could move to within a game of first and hold the tie-breaker vs. the Pats, who have a couple of tough games ahead. Instead, they blew it and really hurt their playoff chances.

With a terrible AFC record and a loss at SD this week seeming likely, KC is in very big trouble now as well.

Cincy has two tough road games the next two weeks at Indy and Denver, but those games suddenly seem a lot more winnable than they did a month ago. If I had to guess today at the playoff seedings, I would say:

1: San Diego

2. Indy (I think they go 2-1, and win the Strength of Victory tie-breaker over Baltimore)

3. Baltimore (loss at Pittsburgh costs them a bye)

4. New England

5. Cincinnati

6. Jacksonville

 

[posty]

Doesn't matter to me just as long as Pittsburgh doesn't find a way to sneak in there...