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Breaking down the skills position picks day 1. (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Let’s take a look and breakdown the impact of all the skills positions as it relates heavily to most FF owners and leagues.

1.01 JeMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders: You have to think Russell will start within a year or two if not sooner. I do want to point out and something that got swept under the rug was Oakland getting Josh McCown fro Detroit. I think McCown could come in and start, maybe hold the fort down till Russell is ready but McCown doesn’t have a ton of starting experience, he does however have a lot more NFL knowledge right now over Russell. Any owner taking Russell is banking that because he was a high selection they will see a return on their investment.

1.02 Calvin Johnson WR, Detroit Lions: Great situation for CJ. He has Roy Williams lined up across from him. Johnson should come in and start right away. Martz will showcase his talents. 60+ catches and 1,000 yds as a rookie is not unreachable for this kid. He is not a 12-13 yd per catch kind of guy…he will be used like Moss was as a rookie IMO. Great pick for Dynasty owners. Some with the 1.01 might reconsider between Peterson and Johnson now.

1.07 Adrian Peterson RB, Minnesota Vikings: I was never high on Chester so I think Peterson can come in and start right away. I would be surprised if he didn’t have close to 100 carries thru the 1st 5 games of his career. They are going to want to get the ball into his hands a lot and watch him run behind Hutch and McKinnie…defenses will know they are going there and probably still won’t be able to stop it. Chester owners are in denial if they think he still holds a lot of value.

1.09 Tedd Ginn Jr WR, Miami Dolphins: Its hard to not be biased here but I’ll try. While I don’t like Miami taking Ginn, I do think there is a chance for him to have opp here to score for FF owners, especially if you get punt and kick return yardage and or scores. Who do the Phins have they can run out of the slot with his type of speed? Chambers and Booker will be on the outside, Ginn should have the middle of the filed to fly up the middle if he chooses. Ginn could be one of those guys with 40-50 catches a season for 600 yds and 4-5 scores…which kind of makes him useless on a lot of levels the more I think about it.

1.12 Marshawn Lynch RB, Buffalo Bills: He is in an ideal situation. Some of my friends think that a California RB going to frigid Buffalo is going to be a bad situation but I guess they never heard of OJ Simpson who of course played at USC before being a Bill. He is clearly now the 1.03 in all rookie dynasty drafts. He has a good chance if the OL improves to go out and be a top20 RB for owners.

1.22 Brady Quinn QB, Cleveland Browns: Good for the Browns. He is going to a team that also picked up an outstanding OT to protect Quinn, they have also made a lot of changes to what was a poor OL a year ago. I see Quinn starting by the middle of the season, I really do. This was his dream to play for the Browns, and I think he will do a fine job there. As a dynasty owner I might want to take Quinn before Russell.

1.23 Dwayne Bowe WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Great situation for Bowe. Will he do well? He has a golden opp to do that as KC has an aging veteran and a lot of crap behind that at WR. Bowe has one of the best chances of all the rookie WR to come in and post numbers immediately. I could see owners investing a middle 1st round pick on this guy. They should see a return fairly quickly.

1.27 Robert Meachem WR, New Orleans Saints: He is going to come into a high powered offense which is a good thing. But he is also probably buried on the depth chart to at least a WR3 for the moment. He will have to learn a fairly complex offense too. Owners will say this is a great situation for him…I think it has a possibility to also not be an ideal situation for him. Bush and Colston are options 1 and 2…and you have Henderson, Copper, Jones, and Patten all in camp right now too. He will have to earn his way into the starting lineup. I do like what Meachem accomplished in college.

1.30 Craig Davis WR, San Diego Chargers: What were they thinking? I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board. They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy…I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point, so far the Chargers have made questionable moves since their loss to the Patriots IMHO. Is Davis more talented than Vincent Jackson…Floyd, Parker(probably)… just don’t see where he will make waves with LT and Gates already options 1 and 2. I would not invest a 1st rounder in Craig Davis both NFL and FF. I think when we look back he will be one of the WR in the 1st round that doesn’t make it. They can’t all succeed and he will be one of them.

1.31 Greg Olsen TE, Chicago Bears: Love the pick, love the team he is going to. Desmond Clark had a career year last season and he is getting old. Look for Olsen to learn the ropes year 1 and be ready for primetime in year 2. he has great speed and will be fine playing for Chicago. Good player with nice skills going to a Super Bowl team…recipe for success.

1.32 Anthony Gonzalez WR, Indianapolis Colts: I wrote a couple weeks ago when I took a flyer on him in one of the survivor drafts on this board that I felt he was going to be taken by the Colts…that turned out to be true. I love the pick, love the role he will play and I think owners need to take a good hard look at this guy. Best QB in the NFL tossing him the ball out of the slot. Harrison has a shelf life of probably 2-3 more seasons…this is going to be a very nice marriage between he and the Colts. Kid has speed, runs in the 4.3 area, can catch, runs precise routes, and can make things happen after he catches the ball. Every time I saw the OSU highlights this season you would see Gonzalez doing things that were special. Plus an injury to Harrison or Wayne and you have a starter for Indy on your team. Smart owners will really look at this pick.

2.04 Kevin Kolb QB, Philadelphia Eagles: What??? I don’t understand the pick, and there were better QB available. They have backups already, McNabb is the guy in Philly and on schedule to return as the starter this year. I would not invest a 1st or even a 2nd rounder in dynasty leagues on this guy.

2.06 Zach Miller TE, Oakland Raiders: I like the pick and think Miller can do well in this offense. Miller is not the speed freak that Olsen is but he was a good pass catching TE at ASU. Should start in Oakland within a couple of seasons. Oakland has a lot of average TE on their team.

2.08 John Beck QB, Miami Dolphins: Miami wanted a 2nd round QB the whole time which is why they passed on Quinn. I like this pick actually and while Beck needs work, he can sit behind hopefully Trent Green for a season or two. Cam developed Brees and Rivers, so you have to give him some credit that he can turn this guy into an NFL QB too. This is a guy you want to stash on your roster in dynasty leagues.

2.11 Drew Stanton QB, Detroit Lions: Project. And great news for Kitna owners. They dodge a big splash QB for a project QB that probably has a 50/50 chance at best for panning out in the NFL. Not a guy you have to have on your team.

2.12 Sydney Rice WR, Minnesota Vikings: If you look at Rice’s stats last season you will see he had monster games against inferior talent…that does not impress me. Plus he is a product from a Spurrier offense…how many Gator WR in the last 10-15 years came into the NFL with hype and fizzled out. DJax has done well but you have your Reidel Anthony, Jacquez Green, there are lots of them that came into the NFL and did not make it. I am very skeptical of Rice however he will have a chance to compete. I am not excited about the Vikings air attack right now, plus with the combo of Peterson/Taylor, they are going to become a running ball control type offense IMO. Many owners will spend a fairly high pick on this guy…he is a potential pothole to me.

2.13 Dwayne Jarrett WR, Carolina Panthers: You’re damn right I am going to hype him. What a steal by the Panthers. He is now going to a team where a WR that he is compared to is at the end of his career, and can tutor him on the game itself. Oh yeah and he has possibly the best most explosive WR in the NFL lining up opposite of him and Smith is going to be around for a long time. Jarrett time and time again made big play after big play against the best teams in college football. He had great Bowl games against Michigan who had a top20 DB pick that went in the 1st round…Jarrett abused the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl. But it is so much more than that. 41 TD catches in 3 seasons, owns many Pac-10 records for a WR. They guy is decorated and comes form a big program. He reminds me a lot of Michael Irvin…forget his 40 time, this guy can flat out play.

2.17 Kenny Irons RB, Cincinnati Bengals: Not going to be a RB I would reach for with a 1.04-1.06 pick in rookie drafts. He is buried at RB3 for the moment. Rudi is no spring chicken but he is going to play for at least another 2-3 seasons, so you have a guy that is a bit undersized and you are going to have to hold him with little return on a team that thinks pass 1st. I don’t like this situation much at all. Bad place for him to go.

2.18 Chris Henry RB, Tennessee Titans: Certainly there is room for Henry to see some action. From an opportunity standpoint this is close to ideal. White is not living up to his draft slot form last season to this point. Henry is very fast and we now are probably going to see a RBBC in TN for the time being. I am not that high on Henry though as a RB but he does slide into a great situation where he will be given a chance to perform quickly.

2.19 Steve Smith WR, NY Giants: Good pick, good team, good situation. I was not high on Sinorice when they drafted him last season. Smith can move ahead of him. Toomer is aging quickly so Smith might be the WR2…possibly the WR1 down the road on a team with a good young QB in Eli Manning. I like this situation but I do think it might take a year or two before we see big returns form Steve Smith.

2.20 Brian Leonard RB, St Louis Rams: Throw up city here. Odds that he will improve a FF roster now are about zero. Loved him in college and would have like to have seen him go to a team where they needed some RB help. Not going to happen here.

2.31 Brandon Jackson RB, Green Bay: Many owners are going to run and grab him at 1.04 now. OK, but lets not forget that Brandon Jackson is a lot different than and Adrian Peterson. He is not going to carry the ball 300 times as a rookie I promise you. I am betting you will see a RBBC with Morency, in fact I like Morency to have better stats year 1. Part of the reason Jackson left Nebraska as a Junior was because of the competition in his own backfield with sensation Marlon Lucky coming up the ranks. Don’t assume that he is going to walk into GB and be a stud…that would be a mistake. If he can’t be the best at his school than how is he going to dominate at the NFL level. I’m just saying…

3.07 Lorenzo Booker RB, Miami Dolphins: I said all along that this guy was way over hyped by a lot of board reporters…its nice to spotlight a guy but again we have a situation where he played for a big time college program and was very “meh”. FSU didn’t not know how to use Booker??? He simply is what he is…a backup NFL RB that does not have the size needed really to be an every down NFL starting RB. This guy has to go from a potential 1.04 pick in rookie drafts to maybe not till the middle of the 2nd round. I am not the biggest Ronnie Brown fan but he is the starter and have no delusions of Booker coming in and pushing him to the side.

3.09 Jacoby Jones WR, Houston Oilers…Texans: Houston really hasn’t addressed their need for a solid WR2. Jones has a chance to compete but you heard very little of him coming into the draft. Had only a 12 ypc avg last season. More of a return specialist IMO.

3.10 Yamon Figurs WR, Baltimore: Clayton is the WR1 in the making on this team. Demetrius Williams is making strides, Heap is one of the 1st options on the passing game too…not a great situation really.

3.11 Laurent Robinson WR, Atlanta Falcons: This seems like a black hole for almost any WR that ends up here…I don’t like the situation much.

3.12 Jason Hill, WR San Francisco 49ers: of the WR in this little bunch, Hill has the best chance for success IMO. Not much is in his way right now in SF. Even if they land DJax, I like the offense he is going to. There is a good chance for success here and I wouldn’t hesitate making room for this guy as a FF owner at the right spot in the rookie drafts.

3.13 Matt Spaeth TE, Pittsburgh Steelers: Behind Heath Miller already. Not a great situation but if Miller went down he would be part of what is starting to look like a decent passing attack in Pittsburgh.

3.14 James Jones WR, Green Bay: Driver is still only 32. Jennings showed an awful lot last season. The brittle Ferguson at WR3…its not out of the question he could see some action but Favre isn’t going to be there forever either. Jones is a guy you take a flyer on if you have deeper rosters.

3.15 Mike Walker WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: Just what Jax needs, another WR. Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Earnest Wilford, Northcutt…where will Walker fit in?

3.17 Paul Williams WR, Tennessee Titans: Another mediocre WR for the Titans…hip hip hooray! I don’t get what the Titans are doing right now and most “experts” don’t either. A longshot here to be a productive WR in the NFL.

3.27 Tony Hunt RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Doesn’t fit in with their ideal RB but they need a guy near the goal line to punch it in and that’s exactly what hunt will do for them. Might not be a yardage monster but 6-8 rushing TD are not out of the question. Westbrook owners are not too happy with this.

3.29 Trent Edwards QB, Buffalo Bills: I like him long term. JP Losman may or may not pan out for the Bills in the next year or two. I like this pick and I think they can develop Edwards into an NFL QB given time.

3.30 Garrett Wolfe RB, Chicago Bears: Benson is no sure thing at RB I tell you. Wolfe would be an RB3 here but its not out of the question he could see action in Chicago. A good team with a solid OL, and weapons at WR and TE now…I wouldn’t reach for Wolfe but for owners that have deep rosters…and Benson owners, you gotta think about maybe picking this guy up at some point.

3.36 Johnnie Lee Higgins WR, Oakland Raiders: Cloudy right now. I like his talent but he is going to a team that has a lot of talent presently at WR. Still I like this guy’s talent and in a season or two things may be quite different in Oakland. Of the 3rd round WR I do feel like he was one of the best taken.

What say you? Sound off.

 
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Pretty good breakdown MoP.

Only one comment for now:

3.10 Yamon Figurs WR, Baltimore: Clayton is the WR1 in the making on this team. Demetrius Williams is making strides, Heap is one of the 1st options on the passing game too…not a great situation really.
This pick is not for the WR, it's for the return specialist. Figurs might get in as the slot WR, but his role on special teams is why he went in the 3rd, as opposed to the 5th or so. He won't be Devin Hester, despite being faster, but he should be one of the better KR/PRs in the NFL soon. 2nd best or maybe even the best, in this draft.
 
3.13 Matt Spaeth TE, Pittsburgh Steelers: Behind Heath Miller already. Not a great situation but if Miller went down he would be part of what is starting to look like a decent passing attack in Pittsburgh.
Don't even need Miller to go down, although Spaeth is not taking his job, his size (6'7) will be a very nice addition to redzone and 3rd and short situations.Double TE sets baby.

:goodposting:

EDIT To Add-

Nice breakdown though man.

 
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Pretty good breakdown MoP.

Only one comment for now:

3.10 Yamon Figurs WR, Baltimore: Clayton is the WR1 in the making on this team. Demetrius Williams is making strides, Heap is one of the 1st options on the passing game too…not a great situation really.
This pick is not for the WR, it's for the return specialist. Figurs might get in as the slot WR, but his role on special teams is why he went in the 3rd, as opposed to the 5th or so. He won't be Devin Hester, despite being faster, but he should be one of the better KR/PRs in the NFL soon. 2nd best or maybe even the best, in this draft.
Good point, I'm sure many of the WR in that bunched up bunch were drafted for that reason but they don't add much to most FF rosters.
 
Nice info here. I agree with Ginn being a reach and Bowe having some big upside however I disagree with you on Lynch, not good situation and I think Meachem could put up the 2nd best rookie wr #'s in this class. I think he will oppposite of Colston on day one. I think Henderson is nore of a slot guy and Copper is a #4 guy. I really like where Meachem ended up for his value.

 
3.13 Matt Spaeth TE, Pittsburgh Steelers: Behind Heath Miller already. Not a great situation but if Miller went down he would be part of what is starting to look like a decent passing attack in Pittsburgh.
Don't even need Miller to go down, although Spaeth is not taking his job, his size (6'7) will be a very nice addition to redzone and 3rd and short situations.Double TE sets baby.

:goodposting:
You guys are making excellent points about how they will be used. I was looking at it more thru the eyes of a greedy FF owner. :) I don't care much about 2 TE formations...I just want catches, yards, and TD!
 
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Let’s take a look and breakdown the impact of all the skills positions as it relates heavily to most FF owners and leagues.

1.01 JeMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders: You have to think Russell will start within a year or two if not sooner. I do want to point out and something that got swept under the rug was Oakland getting Josh McCown fro Detroit. I think McCown could come in and start, maybe hold the fort down till Russell is ready but McCown doesn’t have a ton of starting experience, he does however have a lot more NFL knowledge right now over Russell. Any owner taking Russell is banking that because he was a high selection they will see a return on their investment.

1.02 Calvin Johnson WR, Detroit Lions: Great situation for CJ. He has Roy Williams lined up across from him. Johnson should come in and start right away. Martz will showcase his talents. 60+ catches and 1,000 yds as a rookie is not unreachable for this kid. He is not a 12-13 yd per catch kind of guy…he will be used like Moss was as a rookie IMO. Great pick for Dynasty owners. Some with the 1.01 might reconsider between Peterson and Johnson now.

1.07 Adrian Peterson RB, Minnesota Vikings: I was never high on Chester so I think Peterson can come in and start right away. I would be surprised if he didn’t have close to 100 carries thru the 1st 5 games of his career. They are going to want to get the ball into his hands a lot and watch him run behind Hutch and McKinnie…defenses will know they are going there and probably still won’t be able to stop it. Chester owners are in denial if they think he still holds a lot of value.

1.09 Tedd Ginn Jr WR, Miami Dolphins: Its hard to not be biased here but I’ll try. While I don’t like Miami taking Ginn, I do think there is a chance for him to have opp here to score for FF owners, especially if you get punt and kick return yardage and or scores. Who do the Phins have they can run out of the slot with his type of speed? Chambers and Booker will be on the outside, Ginn should have the middle of the filed to fly up the middle if he chooses. Ginn could be one of those guys with 40-50 catches a season for 600 yds and 4-5 scores…which kind of makes him useless on a lot of levels the more I think about it.

1.12 Marshawn Lynch RB, Buffalo Bills: He is in an ideal situation. Some of my friends think that a California RB going to frigid Buffalo is going to be a bad situation but I guess they never heard of OJ Simpson who of course played at USC before being a Bill. He is clearly now the 1.03 in all rookie dynasty drafts. He has a good chance if the OL improves to go out and be a top20 RB for owners.

1.22 Brady Quinn QB, Cleveland Browns: Good for the Browns. He is going to a team that also picked up an outstanding OT to protect Quinn, they have also made a lot of changes to what was a poor OL a year ago. I see Quinn starting by the middle of the season, I really do. This was his dream to play for the Browns, and I think he will do a fine job there. As a dynasty owner I might want to take Quinn before Russell.

1.23 Dwayne Bowe WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Great situation for Bowe. Will he do well? He has a golden opp to do that as KC has an aging veteran and a lot of crap behind that at WR. Bowe has one of the best chances of all the rookie WR to come in and post numbers immediately. I could see owners investing a middle 1st round pick on this guy. They should see a return fairly quickly.

1.27 Robert Meachem WR, New Orleans Saints: He is going to come into a high powered offense which is a good thing. But he is also probably buried on the depth chart to at least a WR3 for the moment. He will have to learn a fairly complex offense too. Owners will say this is a great situation for him…I think it has a possibility to also not be an ideal situation for him. Bush and Colston are options 1 and 2…and you have Henderson, Copper, Jones, and Patten all in camp right now too. He will have to earn his way into the starting lineup. I do like what Meachem accomplished in college.

1.30 Craig Davis WR, San Diego Chargers: What were they thinking? I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board. They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy…I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point, so far the Chargers have made questionable moves since their loss to the Patriots IMHO. Is Davis more talented than Vincent Jackson…Floyd, Parker(probably)… just don’t see where he will make waves with LT and Gates already options 1 and 2. I would not invest a 1st rounder in Craig Davis both NFL and FF. I think when we look back he will be one of the WR in the 1st round that doesn’t make it. They can’t all succeed and he will be one of them.

1.31 Greg Olsen TE, Chicago Bears: Love the pick, love the team he is going to. Desmond Clark had a career year last season and he is getting old. Look for Olsen to learn the ropes year 1 and be ready for primetime in year 2. he has great speed and will be fine playing for Chicago. Good player with nice skills going to a Super Bowl team…recipe for success.

1.32 Anthony Gonzalez WR, Indianapolis Colts: I wrote a couple weeks ago when I took a flyer on him in one of the survivor drafts on this board that I felt he was going to be taken by the Colts…that turned out to be true. I love the pick, love the role he will play and I think owners need to take a good hard look at this guy. Best QB in the NFL tossing him the ball out of the slot. Harrison has a shelf life of probably 2-3 more seasons…this is going to be a very nice marriage between he and the Colts. Kid has speed, runs in the 4.3 area, can catch, runs precise routes, and can make things happen after he catches the ball. Every time I saw the OSU highlights this season you would see Gonzalez doing things that were special. Plus an injury to Harrison or Wayne and you have a starter for Indy on your team. Smart owners will really look at this pick.

2.04 Kevin Kolb QB, Philadelphia Eagles: What??? I don’t understand the pick, and there were better QB available. They have backups already, McNabb is the guy in Philly and on schedule to return as the starter this year. I would not invest a 1st or even a 2nd rounder in dynasty leagues on this guy.

2.06 Zach Miller TE, Oakland Raiders: I like the pick and think Miller can do well in this offense. Miller is not the speed freak that Olsen is but he was a good pass catching TE at ASU. Should start in Oakland within a couple of seasons. Oakland has a lot of average TE on their team.

2.08 John Beck QB, Miami Dolphins: Miami wanted a 2nd round QB the whole time which is why they passed on Quinn. I like this pick actually and while Beck needs work, he can sit behind hopefully Trent Green for a season or two. Cam developed Brees and Rivers, so you have to give him some credit that he can turn this guy into an NFL QB too. This is a guy you want to stash on your roster in dynasty leagues.

2.11 Drew Stanton QB, Detroit Lions: Project. And great news for Kitna owners. They dodge a big splash QB for a project QB that probably has a 50/50 chance at best for panning out in the NFL. Not a guy you have to have on your team.

2.12 Sydney Rice WR, Minnesota Vikings: If you look at Rice’s stats last season you will see he had monster games against inferior talent…that does not impress me. Plus he is a product from a Spurrier offense…how many Gator WR in the last 10-15 years came into the NFL with hype and fizzled out. DJax has done well but you have your Reidel Anthony, Jacquez Green, there are lots of them that came into the NFL and did not make it. I am very skeptical of Rice however he will have a chance to compete. I am not excited about the Vikings air attack right now, plus with the combo of Peterson/Taylor, they are going to become a running ball control type offense IMO. Many owners will spend a fairly high pick on this guy…he is a potential pothole to me.

2.13 Dwayne Jarrett WR, Carolina Panthers: You’re damn right I am going to hype him. What a steal by the Panthers. He is now going to a team where a WR that he is compared to is at the end of his career, and can tutor him on the game itself. Oh yeah and he has possibly the best most explosive WR in the NFL lining up opposite of him and Smith is going to be around for a long time. Jarrett time and time again made big play after big play against the best teams in college football. He had great Bowl games against Michigan who had a top20 DB pick that went in the 1st round…Jarrett abused the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl. But it is so much more than that. 41 TD catches in 3 seasons, owns many Pac-10 records for a WR. They guy is decorated and comes form a big program. He reminds me a lot of Michael Irvin…forget his 40 time, this guy can flat out play.

2.17 Kenny Irons RB, Cincinnati Bengals: Not going to be a RB I would reach for with a 1.04-1.06 pick in rookie drafts. He is buried at RB3 for the moment. Rudi is no spring chicken but he is going to play for at least another 2-3 seasons, so you have a guy that is a bit undersized and you are going to have to hold him with little return on a team that thinks pass 1st. I don’t like this situation much at all. Bad place for him to go.

2.18 Chris Henry RB, Tennessee Titans: Certainly there is room for Henry to see some action. From an opportunity standpoint this is close to ideal. White is not living up to his draft slot form last season to this point. Henry is very fast and we now are probably going to see a RBBC in TN for the time being. I am not that high on Henry though as a RB but he does slide into a great situation where he will be given a chance to perform quickly.

2.19 Steve Smith WR, NY Giants: Good pick, good team, good situation. I was not high on Sinorice when they drafted him last season. Smith can move ahead of him. Toomer is aging quickly so Smith might be the WR2…possibly the WR1 down the road on a team with a good young QB in Eli Manning. I like this situation but I do think it might take a year or two before we see big returns form Steve Smith.

2.20 Brian Leonard RB, St Louis Rams: Throw up city here. Odds that he will improve a FF roster now are about zero. Loved him in college and would have like to have seen him go to a team where they needed some RB help. Not going to happen here.

2.31 Brandon Jackson RB, Green Bay: Many owners are going to run and grab him at 1.04 now. OK, but lets not forget that Brandon Jackson is a lot different than and Adrian Peterson. He is not going to carry the ball 300 times as a rookie I promise you. I am betting you will see a RBBC with Morency, in fact I like Morency to have better stats year 1. Part of the reason Jackson left Nebraska as a Junior was because of the competition in his own backfield with sensation Marlon Lucky coming up the ranks. Don’t assume that he is going to walk into GB and be a stud…that would be a mistake. If he can’t be the best at his school than how is he going to dominate at the NFL level. I’m just saying…

3.07 Lorenzo Booker RB, Miami Dolphins: I said all along that this guy was way over hyped by a lot of board reporters…its nice to spotlight a guy but again we have a situation where he played for a big time college program and was very “meh”. FSU didn’t not know how to use Booker??? He simply is what he is…a backup NFL RB that does not have the size needed really to be an every down NFL starting RB. This guy has to go from a potential 1.04 pick in rookie drafts to maybe not till the middle of the 2nd round. I am not the biggest Ronnie Brown fan but he is the starter and have no delusions of Booker coming in and pushing him to the side.

3.09 Jacoby Jones WR, Houston Oilers…Texans: Houston really hasn’t addressed their need for a solid WR2. Jones has a chance to compete but you heard very little of him coming into the draft. Had only a 12 ypc avg last season. More of a return specialist IMO.

3.10 Yamon Figurs WR, Baltimore: Clayton is the WR1 in the making on this team. Demetrius Williams is making strides, Heap is one of the 1st options on the passing game too…not a great situation really.

3.11 Laurent Robinson WR, Atlanta Falcons: This seems like a black hole for almost any WR that ends up here…I don’t like the situation much.

3.12 Jason Hill, WR San Francisco 49ers: of the WR in this little bunch, Hill has the best chance for success IMO. Not much is in his way right now in SF. Even if they land DJax, I like the offense he is going to. There is a good chance for success here and I wouldn’t hesitate making room for this guy as a FF owner at the right spot in the rookie drafts.

3.13 Matt Spaeth TE, Pittsburgh Steelers: Behind Heath Miller already. Not a great situation but if Miller went down he would be part of what is starting to look like a decent passing attack in Pittsburgh.

3.14 James Jones WR, Green Bay: Driver is still only 32. Jennings showed an awful lot last season. The brittle Ferguson at WR3…its not out of the question he could see some action but Favre isn’t going to be there forever either. Jones is a guy you take a flyer on if you have deeper rosters.

3.15 Mike Walker WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: Just what Jax needs, another WR. Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Earnest Wilford, Northcutt…where will Walker fit in?

3.17 Paul Williams WR, Tennessee Titans: Another mediocre WR for the Titans…hip hip hooray! I don’t get what the Titans are doing right now and most “experts” don’t either. A longshot here to be a productive WR in the NFL.

3.27 Tony Hunt RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Doesn’t fit in with their ideal RB but they need a guy near the goal line to punch it in and that’s exactly what hunt will do for them. Might not be a yardage monster but 6-8 rushing TD are not out of the question. Westbrook owners are not too happy with this.

3.29 Trent Edwards QB, Buffalo Bills: I like him long term. JP Losman may or may not pan out for the Bills in the next year or two. I like this pick and I think they can develop Edwards into an NFL QB given time.

3.30 Garrett Wolfe RB, Chicago Bears: Benson is no sure thing at RB I tell you. Wolfe would be an RB3 here but its not out of the question he could see action in Chicago. A good team with a solid OL, and weapons at WR and TE now…I wouldn’t reach for Wolfe but for owners that have deep rosters…and Benson owners, you gotta think about maybe picking this guy up at some point.

3.36 Johnnie Lee Higgins WR, Oakland Raiders: Cloudy right now. I like his talent but he is going to a team that has a lot of talent presently at WR. Still I like this guy’s talent and in a season or two things may be quite different in Oakland. Of the 3rd round WR I do feel like he was one of the best taken.

What say you? Sound off.
Real Good Stuff, I disagree on four guys their in particular. Jacoby Jones will make a great WR#2 for the Texans. Jason Hill was the WR steal of the draft, hands down This guy has Jerry Rice written all over him. Mike Walker is instantly the Best WR on the Jags. Matt Jones has been a bust, Wilford shows nothing at all and Reggie williams is a Maybe.I agree with you on Mecham, I'll go further with him. BUST

But overall I could not argue much. :goodposting:

 
Nice info here. I agree with Ginn being a reach and Bowe having some big upside however I disagree with you on Lynch, not good situation and I think Meachem could put up the 2nd best rookie wr #'s in this class. I think he will oppposite of Colston on day one. I think Henderson is nore of a slot guy and Copper is a #4 guy. I really like where Meachem ended up for his value.
Hey BJ, how is Lynch in a bad situation? He has only Anthony Thomas to unseat. Buffalo is a team on the rise...I like Levy in their front office...just curious what you are not liking there.
 
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Nice info here. I agree with Ginn being a reach and Bowe having some big upside however I disagree with you on Lynch, not good situation and I think Meachem could put up the 2nd best rookie wr #'s in this class. I think he will oppposite of Colston on day one. I think Henderson is nore of a slot guy and Copper is a #4 guy. I really like where Meachem ended up for his value.
Hey BJ, how is Lynch in a bad situation? He has only Anthony Thomas to unseat. Buffalo is a team on the rise...I like Levy in their front office...just curious what you are not liking there.
Personally I wasn't a big Lynch fan going into the draft and I am not a big fan of Buffalo either. I think their O-line is shaky at best, although I did like the Dockery pick up. I don't like their qb, wr's or te's on offense and I think they lost their best 2 players on defense. I think they are a sinking ship but the good news is IMO they will have a top 5 pick next year to get a nice ol for Lynch. Not a big fan of the player of team, sorry.
 
1.23 Dwayne Bowe WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Great situation for Bowe. Will he do well? He has a golden opp to do that as KC has an aging veteran and a lot of crap behind that at WR. Bowe has one of the best chances of all the rookie WR to come in and post numbers immediately. I could see owners investing a middle 1st round pick on this guy. They should see a return fairly quickly.
I really like Bowe's opportunity in KC and think he'll get a lot of looks. Gonzo isn't getting any younger and Bowe could be a 100 catch guy in a couple years.
 
1.30 Craig Davis WR, San Diego Chargers: What were they thinking? I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board. They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy…I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point, so far the Chargers have made questionable moves since their loss to the Patriots IMHO. Is Davis more talented than Vincent Jackson…Floyd, Parker(probably)… just don’t see where he will make waves with LT and Gates already options 1 and 2. I would not invest a 1st rounder in Craig Davis both NFL and FF. I think when we look back he will be one of the WR in the 1st round that doesn’t make it. They can’t all succeed and he will be one of them.

What say you? Sound off.
Nothing against you, but I am more likely to trust the instincts of the guy who has been the top talent evaluator in the league for the last three or four years. Honestly, I felt the same way at first until I did some research and found out that this guy was a real late-riser. In fact, word is that if the Chargers hadn't taken him, the Colts would have two picks later. Davis spent the summer of 2006 working out with the Mannings at their passing camp, and Peyton really took a liking to the guy as a wide receiver.
 
Pretty good breakdown MoP.

Only one comment for now:

3.10 Yamon Figurs WR, Baltimore: Clayton is the WR1 in the making on this team. Demetrius Williams is making strides, Heap is one of the 1st options on the passing game too…not a great situation really.
This pick is not for the WR, it's for the return specialist. Figurs might get in as the slot WR, but his role on special teams is why he went in the 3rd, as opposed to the 5th or so. He won't be Devin Hester, despite being faster, but he should be one of the better KR/PRs in the NFL soon. 2nd best or maybe even the best, in this draft.
Great work MOP :bag: I see a lot of teams trying to emulate the Bears success last year and grab their own version of Hester.

 
1.30 Craig Davis WR, San Diego Chargers: What were they thinking? I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board. They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy…I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point, so far the Chargers have made questionable moves since their loss to the Patriots IMHO. Is Davis more talented than Vincent Jackson…Floyd, Parker(probably)… just don’t see where he will make waves with LT and Gates already options 1 and 2. I would not invest a 1st rounder in Craig Davis both NFL and FF. I think when we look back he will be one of the WR in the 1st round that doesn’t make it. They can’t all succeed and he will be one of them.

What say you? Sound off.
Nothing against you, but I am more likely to trust the instincts of the guy who has been the top talent evaluator in the league for the last three or four years. Honestly, I felt the same way at first until I did some research and found out that this guy was a real late-riser. In fact, word is that if the Chargers hadn't taken him, the Colts would have two picks later. Davis spent the summer of 2006 working out with the Mannings at their passing camp, and Peyton really took a liking to the guy as a wide receiver.
Certainly fine to have an opinion, but I wouldn't use AJ Smith for the whole crux of it. This is a guy that fired Marty Schottenheimer after going 14-2 and has a team now that feels pretty alienated when you talk to people around the league. Not all 1st round WR work out...look at every draft over the last 20 years and you will see when there are multiple WR in the 1st round like this year, you tend to have about a 50/50 split of who makes an impact and who ends up a bust.

We know Calvin Johnson isn't going to bust...Ginn poosibly will...Meachem and Bowe played at a high level in college against great competition...you know how I feel about Anthony Gonzalez and his situation...I jsut don't see Davis being a 80/1200/8 kind of guy. Maybe 40-50 catches, 600-700 yds...a handful of TD tops...just doesn't cut it for a lot of rosters.

Sorry but my opinion and a lot of analysts are right with me is that SD blew that pick. Time will tell.

 
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Pretty good breakdown MoP.

Only one comment for now:

3.10 Yamon Figurs WR, Baltimore: Clayton is the WR1 in the making on this team. Demetrius Williams is making strides, Heap is one of the 1st options on the passing game too…not a great situation really.
This pick is not for the WR, it's for the return specialist. Figurs might get in as the slot WR, but his role on special teams is why he went in the 3rd, as opposed to the 5th or so. He won't be Devin Hester, despite being faster, but he should be one of the better KR/PRs in the NFL soon. 2nd best or maybe even the best, in this draft.
Great work MOP :bag: I see a lot of teams trying to emulate the Bears success last year and grab their own version of Hester.
You're right, copycat league was in full swing.
 
Nice info here. I agree with Ginn being a reach and Bowe having some big upside however I disagree with you on Lynch, not good situation and I think Meachem could put up the 2nd best rookie wr #'s in this class. I think he will oppposite of Colston on day one. I think Henderson is nore of a slot guy and Copper is a #4 guy. I really like where Meachem ended up for his value.
Hey BJ, how is Lynch in a bad situation? He has only Anthony Thomas to unseat. Buffalo is a team on the rise...I like Levy in their front office...just curious what you are not liking there.
Personally I wasn't a big Lynch fan going into the draft and I am not a big fan of Buffalo either. I think their O-line is shaky at best, although I did like the Dockery pick up. I don't like their qb, wr's or te's on offense and I think they lost their best 2 players on defense. I think they are a sinking ship but the good news is IMO they will have a top 5 pick next year to get a nice ol for Lynch. Not a big fan of the player of team, sorry.
I'm also struggling to understand why so many people are excited about Lynch in Buffalo. He's not in McGahee's league, and Willis was only able to average 3.8 YPC and 6 TDs over the last two seasons. The fact that Dockery and Walker are being looked at as upgrades on the OL is not a good thing. It seems to me that Green Bay would have clearly been a better scenario.

 
Nice info here. I agree with Ginn being a reach and Bowe having some big upside however I disagree with you on Lynch, not good situation and I think Meachem could put up the 2nd best rookie wr #'s in this class. I think he will oppposite of Colston on day one. I think Henderson is nore of a slot guy and Copper is a #4 guy. I really like where Meachem ended up for his value.
Hey BJ, how is Lynch in a bad situation? He has only Anthony Thomas to unseat. Buffalo is a team on the rise...I like Levy in their front office...just curious what you are not liking there.
Personally I wasn't a big Lynch fan going into the draft and I am not a big fan of Buffalo either. I think their O-line is shaky at best, although I did like the Dockery pick up. I don't like their qb, wr's or te's on offense and I think they lost their best 2 players on defense. I think they are a sinking ship but the good news is IMO they will have a top 5 pick next year to get a nice ol for Lynch. Not a big fan of the player of team, sorry.
I'm also struggling to understand why so many people are excited about Lynch in Buffalo. He's not in McGahee's league, and Willis was only able to average 3.8 YPC and 6 TDs over the last two seasons. The fact that Dockery and Walker are being looked at as upgrades on the OL is not a good thing. It seems to me that Green Bay would have clearly been a better scenario.
OK AOD, you make a good point but from an opportunity standpoint Lynch is going to be the starter...starting RB in the NFL are hard to find and I only see 2 right now coming out of this draft...maybe 2 others have a chance to make an impact in 2007 and those two are Brandon Jackson and Chris Henry but both of those RB are notches below a Marshawn Lynch who you have said is not that great...where does that put Jackson/Henry? I think owners are excited that he will touch the ball 20 times a game. Buffalo is young and the fact their defense is getting worse means their offense has to produce...that's not a bad thing.

I have my reservations about Lynch but it looks like a good fit for now.

 
Nice info here. I agree with Ginn being a reach and Bowe having some big upside however I disagree with you on Lynch, not good situation and I think Meachem could put up the 2nd best rookie wr #'s in this class. I think he will oppposite of Colston on day one. I think Henderson is nore of a slot guy and Copper is a #4 guy. I really like where Meachem ended up for his value.
Hey BJ, how is Lynch in a bad situation? He has only Anthony Thomas to unseat. Buffalo is a team on the rise...I like Levy in their front office...just curious what you are not liking there.
Personally I wasn't a big Lynch fan going into the draft and I am not a big fan of Buffalo either. I think their O-line is shaky at best, although I did like the Dockery pick up. I don't like their qb, wr's or te's on offense and I think they lost their best 2 players on defense. I think they are a sinking ship but the good news is IMO they will have a top 5 pick next year to get a nice ol for Lynch. Not a big fan of the player of team, sorry.
I'm also struggling to understand why so many people are excited about Lynch in Buffalo. He's not in McGahee's league, and Willis was only able to average 3.8 YPC and 6 TDs over the last two seasons. The fact that Dockery and Walker are being looked at as upgrades on the OL is not a good thing. It seems to me that Green Bay would have clearly been a better scenario.
Willis McGahee is perhaps the most overrated Player in the NFL. From a talent standpoint, Marshawn Lynch is a cut above. I can't think of one aspect of Willis's game he has the edge on lynch with. Pass blocking? ... People need to wake up and realize the Willis McGahee we saw at miami is gone forever -- The knee injury ended that. What he is now in a best case scenario is Eddie George.
 
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Certainly fine to have an opinion, but I wouldn't use AJ Smith for the whole crux of it. This is a guy that fired Marty Schottenheimer after going 14-2 and has a team now that feels pretty alienated when you talk to people around the league.
Schottenheimer wasn't fired for going 14-2. He wasn't even fired for failing to win a single playoff game with the most talented team in the league (although that certainly would have been justified). He was fired for failing to make concessions with management and ownership. The guy refused to get along with any of his bosses. The same would have happened in any avenue of business.As to folks around the league, (1). link? (2). who cares? The only opinions that matter are those of the Chargers, and although they expressed some initial disappointment, they seem to be in full support of the direction of this team.
Not all 1st round WR work out...look at every draft over the last 20 years and you will see when there are multiple WR in the 1st round like this year, you tend to have about a 50/50 split of who makes an impact and who ends up a bust.We know Calvin Johnson isn't going to bust...Ginn poosibly will...Meachem and Bowe played at a high level in college against great competition...you know how I feel about Anthony Gonzalez and his situation...I jsut don't see Davis being a 80/1200/8 kind of guy. Maybe 40-50 catches, 600-700 yds...a handful of TD tops...just doesn't cut it for a lot of rosters.
We don't KNOW that Johnson won't bust, but we doubt he will - otherwise he wouldn't have been a top five draft pick. Nobody drafts somebody in the top five thinking they could be a bust. But guess what - a lot of them do anyway. It's a safe guess on your part, and that is probably why you are making it. Agreeing with other analysts who have no qualifications to be making picks for professional football teams also probably seems like a safe bet for you.
Sorry but my opinion and a lot of analysts are right with me is that SD blew that pick. Time will tell.
Go crazy making any analysis you like, but to claim that anything will definitely occur from this draft class is complete speculation (at best). The only thing more stupid than claiming you (or "a lot of analysts") know what will occur would be someone agreeing with you (or them).
 
So does anyone else see something missing when a QB and 2 WRs are drafted in the first round from a team who's offense was a liability? LSU had a national championship caliber defense that was let down this year by an offense that just played beyond pathetic D2 level football in a couple games this year.

I'm an SEC homer that saw parts of about half of LSU's games, and all I remember of the WRs is some great throws by Russell and a LOT of drops out of the WRs.

 
Nice info here. I agree with Ginn being a reach and Bowe having some big upside however I disagree with you on Lynch, not good situation and I think Meachem could put up the 2nd best rookie wr #'s in this class. I think he will oppposite of Colston on day one. I think Henderson is nore of a slot guy and Copper is a #4 guy. I really like where Meachem ended up for his value.
Hey BJ, how is Lynch in a bad situation? He has only Anthony Thomas to unseat. Buffalo is a team on the rise...I like Levy in their front office...just curious what you are not liking there.
Personally I wasn't a big Lynch fan going into the draft and I am not a big fan of Buffalo either. I think their O-line is shaky at best, although I did like the Dockery pick up. I don't like their qb, wr's or te's on offense and I think they lost their best 2 players on defense. I think they are a sinking ship but the good news is IMO they will have a top 5 pick next year to get a nice ol for Lynch. Not a big fan of the player of team, sorry.
I'm also struggling to understand why so many people are excited about Lynch in Buffalo. He's not in McGahee's league, and Willis was only able to average 3.8 YPC and 6 TDs over the last two seasons. The fact that Dockery and Walker are being looked at as upgrades on the OL is not a good thing. It seems to me that Green Bay would have clearly been a better scenario.
Willis McGahee is perhaps the most overrated Player in the NFL. From a talent standpoint, Marshawn Lynch is a cut above. I can't think of one aspect of Willis's game he has the edge on lynch with. Pass blocking? ... People need to wake up and realize the Willis McGahee we saw at miami is gone forever -- The knee injury ended that. What he is now in a best case scenario is Eddie George.
McGahee is not overrated.If Lynch can produce these #'s I'd be shocked

2004 BUF 16 ganes 284 carries 1128 yards 4.0 avg 41 long 13 td's

 
2.31 Brandon Jackson RB, Green Bay: Many owners are going to run and grab him at 1.04 now. OK, but lets not forget that Brandon Jackson is a lot different than and Adrian Peterson. He is not going to carry the ball 300 times as a rookie I promise you. I am betting you will see a RBBC with Morency, in fact I like Morency to have better stats year 1. Part of the reason Jackson left Nebraska as a Junior was because of the competition in his own backfield with sensation Marlon Lucky coming up the ranks. Don’t assume that he is going to walk into GB and be a stud…that would be a mistake. If he can’t be the best at his school than how is he going to dominate at the NFL level. I’m just saying…
Way wrong. Marlon Lucky has looked like crap, in all honesty, so far in his career. Jackson was far and away the better runner. If Jackson hadn't gone into the draft, he would have been the #1 tailback no questions. Lucky doesn't have great vision, and is unable to break arm tackles. I was sad when Jackson left early.
 
Great read MOP,Do you think this affects SJax at all? Alot of people feel that he should be the #1 pick in dynasty leagues over LT....would this solidify SJax as #2 to LT, or is it status quo?

2.20 Brian Leonard RB, St Louis Rams: Throw up city here. Odds that he will improve a FF roster now are about zero. Loved him in college and would have like to have seen him go to a team where they needed some RB help. Not going to happen here.
 
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Great read MOP,Do you think this affects SJax at all? Alot of people feel that he should be the #1 pick in dynasty leagues over LT....would this solidify SJax as #2 to LT, or is it status quo?

2.20 Brian Leonard RB, St Louis Rams: Throw up city here. Odds that he will improve a FF roster now are about zero. Loved him in college and would have like to have seen him go to a team where they needed some RB help. Not going to happen here.
Good question.Even if SJax is the better RB right now(he isn't) but if he were..you still take LT because you can trade him for SJax plus get something in return. Its always about maximum return on investment.
 
Great post, MOP.

As a Raiders homer, let me say:

Zach Miller was starting in Oakland the second he got off the plane. Lane Kiffin said they were targeting him the entire time, and had him as their #1 TE.

 
2.12 Sydney Rice WR, Minnesota Vikings: If you look at Rice’s stats last season you will see he had monster games against inferior talent…that does not impress me. Plus he is a product from a Spurrier offense…how many Gator WR in the last 10-15 years came into the NFL with hype and fizzled out. DJax has done well but you have your Reidel Anthony, Jacquez Green, there are lots of them that came into the NFL and did not make it. I am very skeptical of Rice however he will have a chance to compete. I am not excited about the Vikings air attack right now, plus with the combo of Peterson/Taylor, they are going to become a running ball control type offense IMO. Many owners will spend a fairly high pick on this guy…he is a potential pothole to me.
If I'm not mistaken Holt recruited Rice as if it matters. Saying he is a product of a Spurrier system is like saying CJ would be a product of a Spurrier system. I have this guy flip flopping with Bowe for my #2 WR in dynasty drafts. He walks into a great situation with the mess Minny has at WR. He is a project, but I think he weighs in well above most of the "Spurrier system" receivers.
 
if you do not have a top 5 rookie pick in your league's rookie draft TRADE IT.
Who do you see being the consensus 1.04 and 1.05 picks? I'm personally torn at 1.04 in one league... nothing really jumps out at me as being obvious. One of the QBs probably the safest... Jackson at 1.04? Maybe. Ginn or one of the WRs? Tough call for me. Nothing jumps out.
 
The one guy who really jumped up to me is Brandon Jackson. His highlights aren't exactly on the Reggie Bush level, but they're not bad. He has an ideal build for the RB position (5'10" 210) and performed well at the combine overall. Couple that with his high draft position and his immediate opportunity, and I think you're looking at a pretty sneaky RB prospect.

A lot of people compare him to Morency. Morency has played pretty well so far in limited opportunities, but Jackson is a significantly better athlete and the basis of combine performance. I give him the edge in this competition, although it remains to be seen if he's truly good enough to win the featured role outright.

Big loser was Antonio Pittman. I never really liked him all that much, but he did well at the combine and there was some chirping about him as the RB3 in the draft. He slipped into the 4th round and was taken by a team with a young star at his position. Not good.

Michael Bush and Kenny Irons look modestly intriguing as long-term holds.

Booker landed in a pretty good spot. I think Ronnie Brown is overrated. And while Booker probably won't ever beat Brown out, he should at least get some PT on third downs and maybe even in the slot.

IMO, none of the WRs jumped up or fell down much based on the draft. They're all in decent spots to eventually produce.

 
2.12 Sydney Rice WR, Minnesota Vikings: If you look at Rice’s stats last season you will see he had monster games against inferior talent…that does not impress me. Plus he is a product from a Spurrier offense…how many Gator WR in the last 10-15 years came into the NFL with hype and fizzled out. DJax has done well but you have your Reidel Anthony, Jacquez Green, there are lots of them that came into the NFL and did not make it. I am very skeptical of Rice however he will have a chance to compete. I am not excited about the Vikings air attack right now, plus with the combo of Peterson/Taylor, they are going to become a running ball control type offense IMO. Many owners will spend a fairly high pick on this guy…he is a potential pothole to me.
If I'm not mistaken Holt recruited Rice as if it matters. Saying he is a product of a Spurrier system is like saying CJ would be a product of a Spurrier system. I have this guy flip flopping with Bowe for my #2 WR in dynasty drafts. He walks into a great situation with the mess Minny has at WR. He is a project, but I think he weighs in well above most of the "Spurrier system" receivers.
Here are Rice's Senior game stats...allow me to drive my point home now like a ginsu knife thru melted butter.@MSU 2rec 13 yds...SEC competition, not much here.

GEORGIA 3 rec 31 yds...not impressed so far.

WOFFORD 7 rec 151 yds...who is Wofford?

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 9 rec 161 yds and 5 TD...against far inferior talent...doesn't impress me.

AUBURN 4 rec for 48 yds...again against a good SEC team he basically does nothing.

@Kentucky 1 rec 15 yds...again great WR don't get shut out. KY is not even that good.

@Vandy 7 rec 89 yds and a TD...nothing special

Tennessee 3 rec 52 yds...again we see against a decent team he can't do much. Good pattern developing.

ARKANSAS 7 rec 126 yds and a TD...Razorbacks weren't that good on defense.

@Florida 7 rec 72 yds...not a great average, mostly dump catches...did nothing to change the game.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE 6 rec 90 and 2 TD...again he lights it up against inferior schools.

@Clemson 8 rec 103 yds

@Houston( Bowl Game) 8 rec 139 yds and TD

Show me where he made it happen against a quality opponent last season. I'm too tired to post Dwayne jarrett's numbers but i promise you they were against much better teams that knew they had to stop him and couldn't. #2 on your board? Sure you don't want to rethink it? He has disaster written all over him.

Edited to add: Jarrett was injured during the season last year. He did have 7/130/3 TD against Notre Dame and 11/205/2 TD in the Rose Bowl against Michigan...both were top10 schools when those games were played...that is some serious production against top notch programs. That is what I look for.

Another example is when Brett Favre marched SOuthern Miss into Tallahassee and beat the Noles his Senior year...it makes a difference who and what you beat in college. Rice clearly exploded against lesser teams, doesn't impress me.

 
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2.12 Sydney Rice WR, Minnesota Vikings: If you look at Rice’s stats last season you will see he had monster games against inferior talent…that does not impress me. Plus he is a product from a Spurrier offense…how many Gator WR in the last 10-15 years came into the NFL with hype and fizzled out. DJax has done well but you have your Reidel Anthony, Jacquez Green, there are lots of them that came into the NFL and did not make it. I am very skeptical of Rice however he will have a chance to compete. I am not excited about the Vikings air attack right now, plus with the combo of Peterson/Taylor, they are going to become a running ball control type offense IMO. Many owners will spend a fairly high pick on this guy…he is a potential pothole to me.
If I'm not mistaken Holt recruited Rice as if it matters. Saying he is a product of a Spurrier system is like saying CJ would be a product of a Spurrier system. I have this guy flip flopping with Bowe for my #2 WR in dynasty drafts. He walks into a great situation with the mess Minny has at WR. He is a project, but I think he weighs in well above most of the "Spurrier system" receivers.
Here are Rice's Senior game stats...allow me to drive my point home now like a ginsu knife thru melted butter.@MSU 2rec 13 yds...SEC competition, not much here.

GEORGIA 3 rec 31 yds...not impressed so far.

WOFFORD 7 rec 151 yds...who is Wofford?

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 9 rec 161 yds and 5 TD...against far inferior talent...doesn't impress me.

AUBURN 4 rec for 48 yds...again against a good SEC team he basically does nothing.

@Kentucky 1 rec 15 yds...again great WR don't get shut out. KY is not even that good.

@Vandy 7 rec 89 yds and a TD...nothing special

Tennessee 3 rec 52 yds...again we see against a decent team he can't do much. Good pattern developing.

ARKANSAS 7 rec 126 yds and a TD...Razorbacks weren't that good on defense.

@Florida 7 rec 72 yds...not a great average, mostly dump catches...did nothing to change the game.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE 6 rec 90 and 2 TD...again he lights it up against inferior schools.

@Clemson 8 rec 103 yds

@Houston( Bowl Game) 8 rec 139 yds and TD

Show me where he made it happen against a quality opponent last season. I'm too tired to post Dwayne jarrett's numbers but i promise you they were against much better teams that knew they had to stop him and couldn't. #2 on your board? Sure you don't want to rethink it? He has disaster written all over him.

Edited to add: Jarrett was injured during the season last year. He did have 7/130/3 TD against Notre Dame and 11/205/2 TD in the Rose Bowl against Michigan...both were top10 schools when those games were played...that is some serious production against top notch programs. That is what I look for.

Another example is when Brett Favre marched SOuthern Miss into Tallahassee and beat the Noles his Senior year...it makes a difference who and what you beat in college. Rice clearly exploded against lesser teams, doesn't impress me.
You have your way and I have mine. I'll take Rice over Jarrett. We'll agree to disagree. :pacifist:
 
Certainly fine to have an opinion, but I wouldn't use AJ Smith for the whole crux of it. This is a guy that fired Marty Schottenheimer after going 14-2 and has a team now that feels pretty alienated when you talk to people around the league.
Schottenheimer wasn't fired for going 14-2. He wasn't even fired for failing to win a single playoff game with the most talented team in the league (although that certainly would have been justified). He was fired for failing to make concessions with management and ownership. The guy refused to get along with any of his bosses. The same would have happened in any avenue of business.As to folks around the league, (1). link? (2). who cares? The only opinions that matter are those of the Chargers, and although they expressed some initial disappointment, they seem to be in full support of the direction of this team.
Not all 1st round WR work out...look at every draft over the last 20 years and you will see when there are multiple WR in the 1st round like this year, you tend to have about a 50/50 split of who makes an impact and who ends up a bust.We know Calvin Johnson isn't going to bust...Ginn poosibly will...Meachem and Bowe played at a high level in college against great competition...you know how I feel about Anthony Gonzalez and his situation...I jsut don't see Davis being a 80/1200/8 kind of guy. Maybe 40-50 catches, 600-700 yds...a handful of TD tops...just doesn't cut it for a lot of rosters.
We don't KNOW that Johnson won't bust, but we doubt he will - otherwise he wouldn't have been a top five draft pick. Nobody drafts somebody in the top five thinking they could be a bust. But guess what - a lot of them do anyway. It's a safe guess on your part, and that is probably why you are making it. Agreeing with other analysts who have no qualifications to be making picks for professional football teams also probably seems like a safe bet for you.
Sorry but my opinion and a lot of analysts are right with me is that SD blew that pick. Time will tell.
Go crazy making any analysis you like, but to claim that anything will definitely occur from this draft class is complete speculation (at best). The only thing more stupid than claiming you (or "a lot of analysts") know what will occur would be someone agreeing with you (or them).
we are always dealing with probabilities, not certainties... but having a better sense of probabilities is what separates better players...what is the probability calvin johnson busts? 50/50? 10%?can you make this determination by looking up some historical statistical indices from past drafts, or is each player to a degree a unique event (i think kirwan said johnson was only player in first round he really couldn't come up with a positional & historical comp... he is that different & rare)? because david terrell & peter warrick busted, does this increase chance CJII busts?he LOOKS like best WR prospect since larry fitzgerald & randy moss (they didn't bust), and physically, maybe best ever for position...just ask yourself, if you were betting & not debating on a board, would you bet a large sum that CJII busts? if not, why not... :goodposting:
 
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what is the prbability calvin johnson busts? 50/50? 10%?
Whether he does or whether he doesn't really has absolutely no bearing on Craig Davis' career at all. I have a hard time giving a crap about Calvin Johnson, but to say he WON'T bust is crazy.But... certainly the fact that he was drafted by the Lions has to improve the likelihood of a bust for him. It's kind of humorous that we are second-guessing A.J. Smith's talent-assessment abilities (the guy who found Antonio Gates and Eric Parker as rookie free agents) and not Matt Millen (who has wasted top ten picks on Mike Williams, Joey Harrington, and Jeff Backus).
 
ARKANSAS 7 rec 126 yds and a TD...Razorbacks weren't that good on defense.
Incorrect. Arkansas' defense was very good, and Rice spent that entire game matched up against Chris Houston. Rice played very well that night.
Fine CG, but they sure got wasted with USC in their backyard. Look at how many games Rice didn't do anything against Auburn, TN, MSU, KY, Georgia...the list is long and distinguished...but he lit up FAU, Wofford...you have to admit he didn't seem to do that well against the better competition. Calvin Johnson didn't have a great QB chucking him the ball and he found ways to make it happen. Where would you take Rice in a dynasty rookie draft CG? I would be looking after CJ, at Gonzalez, Jarrett, Bowe, Meachem maybe as well all before I would gamble on a Spurrier WR on offense. Doesn't matter if he recruited him or not, the past 2 seasons where he had his stats, SPurrier was in charge. That last statement is not directed at you.
 
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ARKANSAS 7 rec 126 yds and a TD...Razorbacks weren't that good on defense.
Incorrect. Arkansas' defense was very good, and Rice spent that entire game matched up against Chris Houston. Rice played very well that night.
Fine CG, but they sure got wasted with USC in their backyard. Look at how many games Rice didn't do anything against Auburn, TN, MSU, KY, Georgia...the list is long and distinguished...but he lit up FAU, Wofford...you have to admit he didn't seem to do that well against the better competition.
I agreed that the rest of the schedule saw him picking on weak teams. I just wanted to point out that he did have a good game against a good defense.
Calvin Johnson didn't have a great QB chucking him the ball and he found ways to make it happen.
I agree that Johnson is better than Rice.
Where would you take Rice in a dynasty rookie draft CG? I would be looking after CJ, at Gonzalez, Jarrett, Bowe, Meachem maybe as well all before I would gamble on a Spurrier WR on offense.
I'm not sure just yet, but Rice could easily be successful immediately. He is a talented player and has light competition at his position. Hard to pass on someone in that situation.
 
2.04 Kevin Kolb QB, Philadelphia Eagles: What??? I don’t understand the pick, and there were better QB available. They have backups already, McNabb is the guy in Philly and on schedule to return as the starter this year. I would not invest a 1st or even a 2nd rounder in dynasty leagues on this guy.

2.08 John Beck QB, Miami Dolphins: Miami wanted a 2nd round QB the whole time which is why they passed on Quinn. I like this pick actually and while Beck needs work, he can sit behind hopefully Trent Green for a season or two. Cam developed Brees and Rivers, so you have to give him some credit that he can turn this guy into an NFL QB too. This is a guy you want to stash on your roster in dynasty leagues.

2.18 Chris Henry RB, Tennessee Titans: Certainly there is room for Henry to see some action. From an opportunity standpoint this is close to ideal. White is not living up to his draft slot form last season to this point. Henry is very fast and we now are probably going to see a RBBC in TN for the time being. I am not that high on Henry though as a RB but he does slide into a great situation where he will be given a chance to perform quickly.

2.20 Brian Leonard RB, St Louis Rams: Throw up city here. Odds that he will improve a FF roster now are about zero. Loved him in college and would have like to have seen him go to a team where they needed some RB help. Not going to happen here.

2.31 Brandon Jackson RB, Green Bay: Many owners are going to run and grab him at 1.04 now. OK, but lets not forget that Brandon Jackson is a lot different than and Adrian Peterson. He is not going to carry the ball 300 times as a rookie I promise you. I am betting you will see a RBBC with Morency, in fact I like Morency to have better stats year 1. Part of the reason Jackson left Nebraska as a Junior was because of the competition in his own backfield with sensation Marlon Lucky coming up the ranks. Don’t assume that he is going to walk into GB and be a stud…that would be a mistake. If he can’t be the best at his school than how is he going to dominate at the NFL level. I’m just saying…
Have some issues with your second round analysis. First off, Kolb was rated third on more than one board, and given the injury history of McNabb, this was a smart move. They had no real immediate needs, so they got to plan ahead.

Beck better be starting by next year, he's already 25 or 26. If he cant wait much longer than that.

Chris Henry has a great situation, too bad he's completely worthless. He was unable to be the man either in high school or college, yet he gets drafted high because he can run fast. He's an athlete, he's not a football player. Avoid at all costs.

SJax can't take every carry for StL, and Leonard will be able to add a much needed receiver in an Hback type roll for this team. He may not have an immediate impact, but I wouldn't be nearly as down on him as you are.

Brandon Jackson was the best RB Nebraska had at the end of the season, and I think he has a shot to be the second best RB of this class.

 
what is the prbability calvin johnson busts? 50/50? 10%?
Whether he does or whether he doesn't really has absolutely no bearing on Craig Davis' career at all. I have a hard time giving a crap about Calvin Johnson, but to say he WON'T bust is crazy.But... certainly the fact that he was drafted by the Lions has to improve the likelihood of a bust for him. It's kind of humorous that we are second-guessing A.J. Smith's talent-assessment abilities (the guy who found Antonio Gates and Eric Parker as rookie free agents) and not Matt Millen (who has wasted top ten picks on Mike Williams, Joey Harrington, and Jeff Backus).
so no thoughts whatsoever you want to talk about the specific probability johnson busts?closer to 50/50? 10%? somewhere in between?one way to evaluate a player is to compare who liked who & make inferences accordingly... another is to just look at him directly & form your own conclusions...does it make johnson more likely to bust if millen picks him instead of jimmy johnson or bill walsh?doesn't the fact that mike martz is designing plays for him have more to do with his potential success than who drafted him?
 
1.30 Craig Davis WR, San Diego Chargers: What were they thinking? I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board. They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy…I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point, so far the Chargers have made questionable moves since their loss to the Patriots IMHO. Is Davis more talented than Vincent Jackson…Floyd, Parker(probably)… just don’t see where he will make waves with LT and Gates already options 1 and 2. I would not invest a 1st rounder in Craig Davis both NFL and FF. I think when we look back he will be one of the WR in the 1st round that doesn’t make it. They can’t all succeed and he will be one of them.
Good post, MoP.I do have a different view on the Craig Davis pick.

I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board.
According to Buddy Nix, Jarrett was never a consideration for the Chargers. He may be a very good NFL WR, but he didn't fit what the Chargers were looking for. They've already got big red zone targets; they needed someone to stretch the field.Gonzalez may have been the Chargers' pick if Davis hadn't been available. They are somewhat similar, but the Chargers felt that Davis has better speed, better size, better hands, was more productive in college, and runs better routes. Gonzalez should be good too, though.

They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy
As Despyzer pointed out, this is likely untrue. Despite what Mel Kiper's rankings say, Buddy Nix was surprised that Davis was still available at #30, and there's good reason to think the Colts would have taken Davis over Gonzalez at #32 if he'd been available.
I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point . . .
Here's a list of players that everybody thought the Chargers reached on by about a half a round in the past three years:Nick Hardwick, Nate Kaeding, Igor Olshansky, Mike Scifres, Philip Rivers, Luis Castillo, Vincent Jackson.

It just shows how goofy it is to grade an NFL team's draft, before any of the players even set foot on an NFL field, using rankings from a magazine.

 
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doesn't the fact that mike martz is designing plays for him have more to do with his potential success than who drafted him?
Of course. Millen doesn't coach the team, and the fact that Millen picked a player has NO bearing on whether he will bust or not, especially when everyone else had him #1 on the board.I'd also point out, Millen jokes aside, that he also picked Roy Williams and that pick seems to be working out fin so far.You guys are confusing necessity with sufficiency :D
 
1.30 Craig Davis WR, San Diego Chargers: What were they thinking? I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board. They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy…I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point, so far the Chargers have made questionable moves since their loss to the Patriots IMHO. Is Davis more talented than Vincent Jackson…Floyd, Parker(probably)… just don’t see where he will make waves with LT and Gates already options 1 and 2. I would not invest a 1st rounder in Craig Davis both NFL and FF. I think when we look back he will be one of the WR in the 1st round that doesn’t make it. They can’t all succeed and he will be one of them.
Good post, MoP.I do have a different view on the Craig Davis pick.

I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board.
According to Buddy Nix, Jarrett was never a consideration for the Chargers. He may be a very good NFL WR, but he didn't fit what the Chargers were looking for. They've already got big red zone targets; they needed someone to stretch the field.Gonzalez may have been the Chargers' pick if Davis hadn't been available. They are somewhat similar, but the Chargers felt that Davis has better speed, better size, better hands, was more productive in college, and runs better routes. Gonzalez should be good too, though.

They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy
As Despyzer pointed out, this is likely untrue. Despite what Mel Kiper's rankings say, Buddy Nix was surprised that Davis was still available at #30, and there's good reason to think the Colts would have taken Davis over Gonzalez at #32 if he'd been available.
I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point . . .
Here's a list of players that everybody thought the Chargers reached on by about a half a round in the past three years:Nick Hardwick, Nate Kaeding, Igor Olshansky, Mike Scifres, Philip Rivers, Luis Castillo, Vincent Jackson.

It just shows how goofy it is to grade an NFL team's draft, before any of the players even set foot on an NFL field, using rankings from a magazine.
Good info MT.But if speed is what they wanted, there were guys that are faster. Gonzalez for sure. Why not tkae a guy that doesn't stretch the field and then go get a speedy guy later. I am not impressed with VJax, Floyd, and Parker...maybe you are. They don't need WR production the way other teams do but since they don't have a ton of pressing needs why not go get a guy that very well may be better than the other guys you have that cannot stretch the field.

 
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1.30 Craig Davis WR, San Diego Chargers: What were they thinking? I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board. They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy…I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point, so far the Chargers have made questionable moves since their loss to the Patriots IMHO. Is Davis more talented than Vincent Jackson…Floyd, Parker(probably)… just don’t see where he will make waves with LT and Gates already options 1 and 2. I would not invest a 1st rounder in Craig Davis both NFL and FF. I think when we look back he will be one of the WR in the 1st round that doesn’t make it. They can’t all succeed and he will be one of them.
Good post, MoP.I do have a different view on the Craig Davis pick.

I am sure Davis is a decent prospect but you had guys like Jarrett and Gonzalez with way more skills that were still on the board.
According to Buddy Nix, Jarrett was never a consideration for the Chargers. He may be a very good NFL WR, but he didn't fit what the Chargers were looking for. They've already got big red zone targets; they needed someone to stretch the field.Gonzalez may have been the Chargers' pick if Davis hadn't been available. They are somewhat similar, but the Chargers felt that Davis has better speed, better size, better hands, was more productive in college, and runs better routes. Gonzalez should be good too, though.

They could have traded down 20m picks and still gotten this guy
As Despyzer pointed out, this is likely untrue. Despite what Mel Kiper's rankings say, Buddy Nix was surprised that Davis was still available at #30, and there's good reason to think the Colts would have taken Davis over Gonzalez at #32 if he'd been available.
I don’t care what AJ Smith has done to this point . . .
Here's a list of players that everybody thought the Chargers reached on by about a half a round in the past three years:Nick Hardwick, Nate Kaeding, Igor Olshansky, Mike Scifres, Philip Rivers, Luis Castillo, Vincent Jackson.

It just shows how goofy it is to grade an NFL team's draft, before any of the players even set foot on an NFL field, using rankings from a magazine.
Good info MT.But if speed is what they wanted, there were guys that are faster. Gonzalez for sure.
"Of the receivers available, this selection may come as a surprise over prospects like Anthony Gonzalez and Dwayne Jarrett. But Davis has better straight-line speed than both of them . . ." -- John MurphyDavis ran a 4.37 at 207 pounds, and he consistently gets deep separation on film. It's not sensible to say that the Chargers should have refrained from picking Davis if they wanted speed. He has the combination of speed, quickness, hands, route-running skills and college production that the Chargers evidently wanted.

Why not tkae a guy that doesn't stretch the field and then go get a speedy guy later.
Because they wanted a guy who can stretch the field. A guy that doesn't stretch the field isn't a perfect fit for that need.
 
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