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Broncos RB. (3 Viewers)

Adam Harstad said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
LOCO said:
i think Moreno is worth a flyer. other than that, I think i am passing.
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I enjoy watching Moreno play. It seems like since after his rookie year, Moreno has just come in and done well every time. Catches the ball well, blocks well, good at the goal line, and the Broncos (Elway) just keeps trying to find a replacement.
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Since entering the league, Knowshon Moreno has 20 carries that (a) came inside the 5 yard line and (b) came with 2 or fewer yards to go for a first down. On those 20 carries, he has scored 9 TDs, good for 45%.

For comparison, over that same span, all other Broncos RBs combined have 23 carries and 10 TDs, good for a nearly-identical success rate (43%). In this case, "all other RBs" includes McGahee (9 carries), Jacob Hester (2), Peyton Hillis (3), Correll Buckhalter (1), Lance Ball (4), LaMont Jordan (1), and Laurence Maroney (3). In other words, there's an awful lot of roster trash in those numbers.

I think this is Knowshon Moreno's career in a nutshell. He'll perform the same as any other generic RB would, no better and no worse. Since he entered the league, Broncos RBs as a whole (including Moreno) average 4.18 ypc, while Moreno alone averages 4.02 ypc. All Broncos RBs combined (including Moreno) get a first down on 21.6% of their carries, while Moreno alone gets one on 20.4%. He's the platonic ideal of replacement level. He's basically Isaac Redman, or Chester Taylor, or any number of other replacement-level RBs who have managed to put up some solid production when given the opportunity, but who weren't nearly good enough to keep the opportunity once they had it. Elway and Fox keep trying to replace him, because that's what you do to replacement-level players- you try to get an upgrade. In Willis McGahee, they succeeded. In Ronnie Hillman, they failed (at least during his rookie year). Will 2nd-year Hillman or 1st-year Ball be an upgrade over Knowshon Moreno? Maybe, maybe not. If they aren't, though, and if Knowshon Moreno winds up winning the starting job, I guarantee you one thing- Denver's going to spend next offseason trying to upgrade from Knowshon Moreno, too. He's the Mendoza Line of NFL RBs.
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This is an interesting post, but it ignores three important elements of playing RB, especially in a Peyton Manning offense: pass blocking, receiving, and fumbling. It has been posted in this thread that Moreno is strong in all of those areas. I know that is true for pass blocking and receiving; I don't know if he fumbles less often than his Denver RB counterparts.

The point of Adam's post is to highlight that Moreno is average as a runner. But if he is average as a runner and above average at pass blocking, receiving, and fumbling, isn't the net outcome that he is an above average RB?

Also, here are some other numbers to think about, all from last season:

1. Moreno ranked as the #18 RB in rushing DVOA and the #5 RB in receiving DVOA. He ranked higher than all other Denver RBs in both categories, and mostly by large margins.

2. Moreno ranked as the #2 RB in rushing success rate as defined by Football Outsiders. McGahee was #1, 2% higher (58% to 56%) than Moreno.

3. Moreno ranked as the #22 overall RB in ProFootballFocus ratings (among RBs who took at least 25% of their teams' snaps). He ranked higher than McGahee, the only other Denver RB to qualify. He had a positive rating in every category (overall, pass, run, blocking, penalty).

:popcorn:

 
Just Win Baby said:
Adam Harstad said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
LOCO said:
i think Moreno is worth a flyer. other than that, I think i am passing.
Click to expand...
I enjoy watching Moreno play. It seems like since after his rookie year, Moreno has just come in and done well every time. Catches the ball well, blocks well, good at the goal line, and the Broncos (Elway) just keeps trying to find a replacement.
Click to expand...
Since entering the league, Knowshon Moreno has 20 carries that (a) came inside the 5 yard line and (b) came with 2 or fewer yards to go for a first down. On those 20 carries, he has scored 9 TDs, good for 45%.

For comparison, over that same span, all other Broncos RBs combined have 23 carries and 10 TDs, good for a nearly-identical success rate (43%). In this case, "all other RBs" includes McGahee (9 carries), Jacob Hester (2), Peyton Hillis (3), Correll Buckhalter (1), Lance Ball (4), LaMont Jordan (1), and Laurence Maroney (3). In other words, there's an awful lot of roster trash in those numbers.

I think this is Knowshon Moreno's career in a nutshell. He'll perform the same as any other generic RB would, no better and no worse. Since he entered the league, Broncos RBs as a whole (including Moreno) average 4.18 ypc, while Moreno alone averages 4.02 ypc. All Broncos RBs combined (including Moreno) get a first down on 21.6% of their carries, while Moreno alone gets one on 20.4%. He's the platonic ideal of replacement level. He's basically Isaac Redman, or Chester Taylor, or any number of other replacement-level RBs who have managed to put up some solid production when given the opportunity, but who weren't nearly good enough to keep the opportunity once they had it. Elway and Fox keep trying to replace him, because that's what you do to replacement-level players- you try to get an upgrade. In Willis McGahee, they succeeded. In Ronnie Hillman, they failed (at least during his rookie year). Will 2nd-year Hillman or 1st-year Ball be an upgrade over Knowshon Moreno? Maybe, maybe not. If they aren't, though, and if Knowshon Moreno winds up winning the starting job, I guarantee you one thing- Denver's going to spend next offseason trying to upgrade from Knowshon Moreno, too. He's the Mendoza Line of NFL RBs.
Click to expand...
This is an interesting post, but it ignores three important elements of playing RB, especially in a Peyton Manning offense: pass blocking, receiving, and fumbling. It has been posted in this thread that Moreno is strong in all of those areas. I know that is true for pass blocking and receiving; I don't know if he fumbles less often than his Denver RB counterparts.

The point of Adam's post is to highlight that Moreno is average as a runner. But if he is average as a runner and above average at pass blocking, receiving, and fumbling, isn't the net outcome that he is an above average RB?

Also, here are some other numbers to think about, all from last season:

1. Moreno ranked as the #18 RB in rushing DVOA and the #5 RB in receiving DVOA. He ranked higher than all other Denver RBs in both categories, and mostly by large margins.

2. Moreno ranked as the #2 RB in rushing success rate as defined by Football Outsiders. McGahee was #1, 2% higher (58% to 56%) than Moreno.

3. Moreno ranked as the #22 overall RB in ProFootballFocus ratings (among RBs who took at least 25% of their teams' snaps). He ranked higher than McGahee, the only other Denver RB to qualify. He had a positive rating in every category (overall, pass, run, blocking, penalty).

:popcorn:
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I would say that Moreno is a great blocker, a good receiver (very good without the ball in his hands, but just as poor after the catch as he is on handoffs), and average with respect to ball security. All of that is very important, but that's why I brought up the concept of the Mendoza Line. The idea behind the "Mendoza Line" is that a player can be the best defensive player in the history of baseball, but if his offense falls below a certain threshold, he's still not going to have a career. Similarly, a back can be the greatest blocker and receiver the league has ever seen, but if he doesn't meet a certain minimum threshold of rushing prowess, he doesn't have an NFL career. At least not at the RB position. Moreno flirts dangerously with that Mendoza Line, and his receiving and blocking are the only reasons he's still around.

I know Moreno's advanced stats look pretty good last year. It's important to remember that no back in the league faced nickel defenses on a higher percentage of his carries, and his sample was only 139 runs. Moreno also had a huge advantage in that, by week 11, he was facing defenses that had half a season's worth of wear and tear while he hadn't gotten a carry since week 2. Tatum Bell did the same thing in 2008. He got cut from the RB-starved Lions, spent the first two months of the season selling cell phones in a mall kiosk, then got called up by the Broncos in November after an unimaginable rash of injuries had forced them to shut down 6 RBs for the season. Another injury at the position left Bell the starter, and he looked better than he had at any point in his career with the team. He averaged a career-best 5.7 YPC and posted 25.8% DVOA (albeit on a much smaller sample- just 44 carries). After the season was over, he was back in the mall selling cell phones.

Knowshon Moreno looked solid at the end of last season. Not spectacular, but better than I've ever seen him look during his time in Denver. With that said, we saw such a small percentage of his overall body of work. We saw 139 carries from him. His coaches see him take thousands of carries every year. They watch and re-watch all of those carries from various different angles, they break them down in film study and dissect them in team meetings. If we know that the team really likes Knowshon Moreno as a blocker and a receiver, and we know that the team desperately wants to replace Knowshon Moreno as their running back, what can we then infer of how the team feels about Moreno as a runner? My inference, given those clues, is that he's at the Mendoza Line- not bad enough to outweigh his positives and leave him unrosterable, but about as close as you can get.

 
The question isn't whether Moreno is at the Mendoza line. The question is - FOR THIS YEAR, are Bell and Hillman below that line? If so, Moreno has an opportunity to produce way higher than his ADP.

 
We all know the gold standard of the Broncos offense is an upright, protected Peyton Manning. Moreno may be the Mendoza line RB for his skill as a playmaker, and that may be good enough to see the field a majority of the snaps when all is said and done....considering how much stock has been invested in the passing game. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll get a lot of touches, as Peyton has a ton of mouths to feed, but he should get the opportunity. And if Hillman continues to fumble or Ball looks timid and clueless protecting, once you see Peyton go down hard a few times, I'd be surprised if Moreno isn't the primary RB, based purely on his pass pro skills.

 
Judge Smails said:
The question isn't whether Moreno is at the Mendoza line. The question is - FOR THIS YEAR, are Bell and Hillman below that line? If so, Moreno has an opportunity to produce way higher than his ADP.
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Yes. But it'll take both players in front of him doing worse than the coaching staff expects. If the coaching staff thought that Ball and Hillman were below the Mendoza Line this year, Moreno would be starting in week 1. Don't think that the coaching staff put Hillman and Ball at 1 and 2 on the depth chart just because of their potential or their draft position. Denver's first pick this season, Sylvester Williams, is a backup behind veteran Terrance Knighton. Denver's third pick this year, Kayvon Webster, is the last CB on the depth chart behind Tony Carter. Denver's fourth pick, Quanterrus Smith, was put on IR, and their fifth and sixth picks, Tavarres King and Vinston Painter, were both cut. Denver's coaching staff builds its depth chart based on who they think gives them the best chance to win, regardless of upside or sunk cost. If they thought that guy was Moreno, they'd be starting Moreno, draft picks be damned. The fact that Hillman and Ball are both ahead of Moreno means the coaching staff really, truly, honestly believes that they're better RBs, and that Denver is better off with them in the lineup.

The coaching staff might be wrong, but to this point, they've shown they have a pretty good idea of what they're doing. They did turn Denver from a 4-12 team drafting #2 overall to a 13-3 team and the current SB favorites, after all.

 
I think you give those coaches a tad too much credit for going from 8-8 to 13-3. The magic pixie dust was always the addition of Peyton.

 
my head hurts:

FOX Sports' Mike Garafolo suggests Knowshon Moreno could be the Broncos' starting tailback Thursday night versus Baltimore.
Garafolo has spoken to "sources" who say Moreno, Montee Ball, and listed starter Ronnie Hillman will play in a three-headed committee against the Ravens, but Moreno "could be the starter" and "play the most." Moreno is Denver's best pass-protecting back, an attribute needed versus imposing Baltimore edge pass rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. The Broncos' backfield remains one to avoid in fantasy lineups until we get some playing-time and role clarity. Moreno and Ball are roll-of-the-dice flex plays in Week 1. Hillman is barely roster worthy in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues.

 
At this point, who really cares about the semantics of "who is the starter" and "who is listed atop the depth chart"? No matter how you slice it, this is going to start out as a RBBC. No one guy this week is going to get 20-25 touches while the other 2 only get 2-3 touches.

 
LOCO said:
my head hurts:

FOX Sports' Mike Garafolo suggests Knowshon Moreno could be the Broncos' starting tailback Thursday night versus Baltimore.Garafolo has spoken to "sources" who say Moreno, Montee Ball, and listed starter Ronnie Hillman will play in a three-headed committee against the Ravens, but Moreno "could be the starter" and "play the most." Moreno is Denver's best pass-protecting back, an attribute needed versus imposing Baltimore edge pass rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. The Broncos' backfield remains one to avoid in fantasy lineups until we get some playing-time and role clarity. Moreno and Ball are roll-of-the-dice flex plays in Week 1. Hillman is barely roster worthy in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues.
Click to expand...
Love how they throw that last part in when none of us know anything.

 
Grahamburn said:
LOCO said:
my head hurts:

FOX Sports' Mike Garafolo suggests Knowshon Moreno could be the Broncos' starting tailback Thursday night versus Baltimore.Garafolo has spoken to "sources" who say Moreno, Montee Ball, and listed starter Ronnie Hillman will play in a three-headed committee against the Ravens, but Moreno "could be the starter" and "play the most." Moreno is Denver's best pass-protecting back, an attribute needed versus imposing Baltimore edge pass rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. The Broncos' backfield remains one to avoid in fantasy lineups until we get some playing-time and role clarity. Moreno and Ball are roll-of-the-dice flex plays in Week 1. Hillman is barely roster worthy in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues.
Click to expand...
Love how they throw that last part in when none of us know anything.
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Cut him now! :doh:

 
LOCO said:
my head hurts:

FOX Sports' Mike Garafolo suggests Knowshon Moreno could be the Broncos' starting tailback Thursday night versus Baltimore.Garafolo has spoken to "sources" who say Moreno, Montee Ball, and listed starter Ronnie Hillman will play in a three-headed committee against the Ravens, but Moreno "could be the starter" and "play the most." Moreno is Denver's best pass-protecting back, an attribute needed versus imposing Baltimore edge pass rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. The Broncos' backfield remains one to avoid in fantasy lineups until we get some playing-time and role clarity. Moreno and Ball are roll-of-the-dice flex plays in Week 1. Hillman is barely roster worthy in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues.
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How does this guy even have a job talking about fantasy football

 
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Raiderfan32904 said:
I think you give those coaches a tad too much credit for going from 8-8 to 13-3. The magic pixie dust was always the addition of Peyton.
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Exactly:

My problem is I'm coming from Wisconsin, a power school, and I had 900 carries in four years. Whenever I was out on the field, I was getting the ball a majority of the time," Ball said. "But with this offense and No. 18..." Ball finished his sentence with an exhale.
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Sheesh, Moreno already. He blocks, he catches, he runs, he scores. All not great, but he does them from well to not badly.

 
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last time sneaky late moreno might be starting rumors floated out he was in the same kinda boat. Then came in and posted a few games for the ages b2b. This whole pile of mess blows. Ghost of skeletor...

 
I think this is Addai Part II, and the information is starting to confirm it. It took Hillman almost a full year to learn how to pass block last year, and I'm not sure exactly what system they ran when he was in school, but considering he was a do-it-all type, he probably had more exposure to it than Ball who admitted he basically never pass-blocked in school.

I could see Ball as the goalline and short-yardage hammer in this offense, but I really think it's Moreno out of the gate with the most value. We'll see how he performs and if he can hold the job. Sure it's a product of the situation, and perhaps he's a Mendoza-line pure runner, but that's good enough in this offense with his plus pass-pro and plus receiving ability.

Prediction for tonight - 10 carries for 44 yards, 4 receptions for another 36 -- 12 points in a full PPR league.

 
Predictions for tonight: Ball gets 30 yards and a TD. Hillman gets 40/20. Moreno gets 25/20. No one has any fun.

 
Biabreakable said:
Adam Harstad said:
Like I said... Knowshon Moreno, meet fork. Fork, Knowshon Moreno.
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Next time I suggest using a spork. No one takes a spork seriously. :)
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If we're using analogies, I think "spork" describes Moreno's role on this team perfctly: a good utility that can do most of want you need it to in one package. But eventually, you want the stabbing capabilities of the fork (Hillman) & scooping power of the spoon (Ball).

Disclaimer: this analogy is based on 3 hours of sleep last night & attempting to drown out "What Not To Wear" in a hospital waiting room.

 
Tusken Raider said:
Biabreakable said:
Adam Harstad said:
Like I said... Knowshon Moreno, meet fork. Fork, Knowshon Moreno.
Click to expand...
Next time I suggest using a spork. No one takes a spork seriously. :)
Click to expand...
If we're using analogies, I think "spork" describes Moreno's role on this team perfctly: a good utility that can do most of want you need it to in one package. But eventually, you want the stabbing capabilities of the fork (Hillman) & scooping power of the spoon (Ball).

Disclaimer: this analogy is based on 3 hours of sleep last night & attempting to drown out "What Not To Wear" in a hospital waiting room.
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That's a good analogy. Let's just all remember that a spork exists for a reason; sometimes it is the right tool for the job and that's what we have in Denver. We all want to ideally envision a big 3-down "do it all" back on our teams, imposing the team's will on opponents and piling on the fantasy points but at the end of the day, none of that matters if the ball isn't in Manning's hands because it keeps getting fumbled away or Manning is looking up at the lights from his back.

 
Biabreakable said:
Adam Harstad said:
Like I said... Knowshon Moreno, meet fork. Fork, Knowshon Moreno.
Click to expand...
Next time I suggest using a spork. No one takes a spork seriously. :)
Click to expand...
Don't take the Rotoworld blurb too seriously. Go read the article they were paraphrasing. The blurb was incredibly poor journalism on Rotoworld's part, because it gives the impressions that "team sources" were suggesting that Moreno could be the starter and get the largest workload, when in reality, in the article "team sources" confirmed it'd be a full-blown RBBC (which is what they've been saying for weeks), and then six paragraphs later the author chimed in with his own personal opinion that Moreno could be the starter and get the largest workload (which is no different than all the other speculation to that effect in this thread).

I'm sticking with my prediction of a 40/40/20 RBBC, with Moreno getting the short straw.

 
This could be 40/40/20 split. or even a 33/33/34 split for all I care. What really matters is who is going to get the goal line looks. Because we can readily assume there will be plenty of one yard scoring opportunities this year. I'd be happy to the guy who gets 20 percent of the committee touches, as long as he gets the GL carries.

 
I think all the fantasy pundits are off base projecting Ball as the lead dog of the RBBC for the 1st game. Just can't see Foxy giving the rookie that many opportunities in the opener against the Superbowl champs. I think everyone is underselling Hillman here and he will have the best numbers at the end of the game (unless he puts the ball on the ground again). If the later is the case, look for Moreno to have a great game.

 
Raiderfan32904 said:
This could be 40/40/20 split. or even a 33/33/34 split for all I care. What really matters is who is going to get the goal line looks. Because we can readily assume there will be plenty of one yard scoring opportunities this year. I'd be happy to the guy who gets 20 percent of the committee touches, as long as he gets the GL carries.
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Actually, in PPR, what matters is who is getting thos 6-8 manning passes every game with the accompanying yards and occasional TD that comes with it.

We've all seen Manning enough over the years to know that while there are those games where he checks into the run at the goal line, you're better off week in and week out relying on Manning's arm to deliver you points rather than him handing it off.

If we see one guy get 10 TDs this year and 6 of those are goal line looks by design, it means little because there will be another guy who, by design, gets 4-5 short screen or wheel route Tds on the year...but he also gets the passes and yards at other points in the field.

 
Raiderfan32904 said:
This could be 40/40/20 split. or even a 33/33/34 split for all I care. What really matters is who is going to get the goal line looks. Because we can readily assume there will be plenty of one yard scoring opportunities this year. I'd be happy to the guy who gets 20 percent of the committee touches, as long as he gets the GL carries.
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Agreed

 
greggorymac said:
I think all the fantasy pundits are off base projecting Ball as the lead dog of the RBBC for the 1st game. Just can't see Foxy giving the rookie that many opportunities in the opener against the Superbowl champs. I think everyone is underselling Hillman here and he will have the best numbers at the end of the game (unless he puts the ball on the ground again). If the later is the case, look for Moreno to have a great game.
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I like how you started the thought but think it changes when you get to the point about who they are playing tonight.

You've got T-sizzle and the world champs coming in and they are bringing in Elvis who has something to prove i think.

 
Shutout said:
Raiderfan32904 said:
This could be 40/40/20 split. or even a 33/33/34 split for all I care. What really matters is who is going to get the goal line looks. Because we can readily assume there will be plenty of one yard scoring opportunities this year. I'd be happy to the guy who gets 20 percent of the committee touches, as long as he gets the GL carries.
Click to expand...
Actually, in PPR, what matters is who is getting thos 6-8 manning passes every game with the accompanying yards and occasional TD that comes with it.

We've all seen Manning enough over the years to know that while there are those games where he checks into the run at the goal line, you're better off week in and week out relying on Manning's arm to deliver you points rather than him handing it off.

If we see one guy get 10 TDs this year and 6 of those are goal line looks by design, it means little because there will be another guy who, by design, gets 4-5 short screen or wheel route Tds on the year...but he also gets the passes and yards at other points in the field.
Click to expand...
I don't mean to argue with you just for the sake of arguing. But I disagree on the the PPR angle. I think the addition of Welker and the emergence of Julius Thomas gives Peyton a myriad of weapons he hasn't had before. Sure, there will checkdowns and dumpoffs, but I think the heart of the value of the Denver RBs will be the high amount of redzone and GL looks. Just my $.02. We can agree to disagree.

 
If I were to guess, each guy will get an entire series or two and then the coaching staff may opt to give the guy that performed best more touches the rest of the way. If one of them had the proverbial hot hand, he might be the beneficiary in the second half. Given that they are playing the Ravens, that may not lead to big fantasy numbers but it might lead to more touches than the others. So in terms of touches, I could see something like 16/9/8.

 
Raiderfan32904 said:
Shutout said:
Raiderfan32904 said:
This could be 40/40/20 split. or even a 33/33/34 split for all I care. What really matters is who is going to get the goal line looks. Because we can readily assume there will be plenty of one yard scoring opportunities this year. I'd be happy to the guy who gets 20 percent of the committee touches, as long as he gets the GL carries.
Click to expand...
Actually, in PPR, what matters is who is getting thos 6-8 manning passes every game with the accompanying yards and occasional TD that comes with it.

We've all seen Manning enough over the years to know that while there are those games where he checks into the run at the goal line, you're better off week in and week out relying on Manning's arm to deliver you points rather than him handing it off.

If we see one guy get 10 TDs this year and 6 of those are goal line looks by design, it means little because there will be another guy who, by design, gets 4-5 short screen or wheel route Tds on the year...but he also gets the passes and yards at other points in the field.
Click to expand...
I don't mean to argue with you just for the sake of arguing. But I disagree on the the PPR angle. I think the addition of Welker and the emergence of Julius Thomas gives Peyton a myriad of weapons he hasn't had before. Sure, there will checkdowns and dumpoffs, but I think the heart of the value of the Denver RBs will be the high amount of redzone and GL looks. Just my $.02. We can agree to disagree.
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I don't want to be argumentative either, but I would suggest that over the years Manning has had at least 3 elite weapons on the field at the time most of the time. Because of that, there would be 1 or 2 other decent check down options to throw to that saw less coverage. So unless they are going to allow 12 men on the field for Denver, I don't think a whole lot changes. Manning had his second best season statistically last year, and adding Welker and (potentially) Thomas won't change things too much. There's only so many times you can throw the ball and only so high his production can go. Better stated, if the guy he throws to has WELKER on his back, I don't think that is all that different than if it said STOKLEY or TAMME or DREESEN. If there is a guy open underneath in the middle of the field, Manning will throw him the football. Whether those passes go to one guy or are chopped up among 3, the outcome and total numbers should be somewhat similar.

 
Yeah - Anderson's the guy that could easily render this all moot if he stays healthy and can get on the active roster on game days.

I do believe given it's the first game and the Ravens pass rush that we're going to see a solid amount of Knowshon tonight, and with checks to the run and dump-off passes, he'll post a solid score for a PPR flex option.

Ball likely gets some red zone looks, and Hillman probably gets some COP looks. However, if they're coming from behind or in a tight game, we may see a whole lot more Moreno than even my cautiously optimistic thoughts posted above.

 
 
greggorymac said:
ffldrew said:
Parmcat said:
Is there ANY speculation as to who might get goal line duty?
Click to expand...
After this impressive TD in preseason - http://youtu.be/ma7U1DQhiQQ

I would bet on Montee Ball
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Yeah, that run with the 2nd team offense against the Rams 2nd team defense in the preseason game looked pretty good.
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While I appreciate that Ball did not go down on contact, the hole was about 8' wide and only got filled by the LB who hit Ball high and from an angle. It's not like he was fighting through a scrum of defensive tackles and LBs.

Still, I agree with the notion that Ball will get the ball on short yardage/goal line plays. Mostly because he is the biggest back on the roster.

 
Cecil Lammey said:
Parmcat said:
Is there ANY speculation as to who might get goal line duty?
Click to expand...
It's easily Ball. I would be surprised if we see anyone else in when the Broncos get inside the 20. Almost every red zone rep at RB went to Ball during training camp.
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This fact alone makes me think he is the RB to start tonight and moving forward. Expect a lot of RZ action for this offense, not to mention, with the amount Manning passes, at least one PI in or near the endzone.

 
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Cecil (or anyone else), care to speculate on touch distribution tonight among the three backs? I'm gonna guess (and believe me, it's a wild, uninformed guess):

Hillman - 16

Moreno - 12

Ball - 12

 
BoomBoom said:
Cecil (or anyone else), care to speculate on touch distribution tonight among the three backs? I'm gonna guess (and believe me, it's a wild, uninformed guess):

Hillman - 16

Moreno - 12

Ball - 12
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40 touches seems a bit high since last year all Broncos RBs combined for 449 carries and 64 receptions--32 total touches per game on average. My guess is that your numbers aren't that far off for two guys, but that one of them will ultimately only see 5-7 touches.

 
In the two games last year vs. BAL . . .

Moreno 23, Hillman 15, Hester 7, Osweiller 2

Hillman 25, Moreno 12, Hester 8

 
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