Broncos RB. (2 Viewers)

[TheFanatic]

Let's see starter and most playing time: Moreno

Hillman: not used much.

Ball: can't even get 1 yard when it matters.

It looked to me like Moreno - 60%, Hillman - 40%. Ball - When the game was decided.

Personally, I thought Hillman looked the best out there tonight. He had more burst and speed.

Rushing:

Moreno: 9/28 (3.1 yds per carry)

Ball: 8/24 (3.0 yds per carry - although they had 9 in the box with him rushing in garbage time)

Hillman: 4/15 (3.75 yds per carry)

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[Ghost Rider]

I agree that Hillman looked like the best of the three last night, but I held my breath every time he touched the ball, terrified that he was gonna fumble again.

I was not surprised Moreno got so much P.T., as he is the best pass protector, but he looked pretty average running the ball.

Ball will likely be the goal line guy, but he didn't impress me much at all.

 

[JFS171]

In PPR, I'll take Moreno every single day, especially at his dirt cheap price. Standard may lean Ball a little bit due to the supposed goalline role, but I won't be surprised at all if Moreno emerges with even more value. IMO we've seen this movie before, and I become more convinced of it day by day. Knowshon Moreno = Joseph Addai circa 2009.

In 2008, Addai played only 12 games, rushed for a whopping 3.5 YPC, had 25 receptions, 7 total TDs, and battled injuries. The Colts turned around and used the 27th overall pick (note - not a late 2nd or 3rd round selection) on Donald Brown. He was the heir-apparent, the guy that was supposed to fix the running game issues for Indy. He was the hot new toy in a Peyton Manning offense. Addai was cooked, until...

Addai wasn't cooked. Fast forward through the 2009 season and Addai finished with 219 carries for 828 yards, 51receptions for another 336 yards, and 13 total TDs. His efficiency metrics? Nothing special - 3.8 per carry, 6.6 per reception. But he won many fantasy titles for his owners as the cheap, old, broken down 26-year old former first rounder who never quite lived up to expectations. Sound familiar?

There's a clear link here -- Peyton Manning.

The beauty of a Manning-led offense is his ability to capitalize ANY GIVEN PLAY on the weakness of the defense. Pass or run, he'll find the area of the field the defense cannot adequately defend, and he'll exploit it. Now do you honestly believe Peyton is going to fully endorse a RB that makes him think twice about audibling to any given play? Especially a pass play because the current RB in the game isn't a great pass protector and he's got to worry about whether he'll get his head taken off? I don't.

Here's the other concern that no one is talking about - given Ball's struggles thus far in pass protection, Denver's probably not likely to put him in those situations, right? If we all know that, don't you think NFL defenses certainly know that? While Manning will help mitigate that to some extent, Drew Brees is also a pretty good QB though, and he wasn't able to fully mitigate defenses keying on the run when another touted rookie Mark Ingram came in the game. Defenses keyed on the run and blew up a lot of plays. Fantasy owners were disappointed. My point is that the Broncos know they've got to be careful to not have a situation where Ball comes in and the offense goes to a running play. Predictability is the enemy here -- or defenses will blow it up every single play.

Give me Moreno... I'll roll the dice there. Not to mention he looks pretty good to me thus far - better as a runner than last year IMO.

Looks like it's playing out exactly like that Colts offense when Brown was drafted to take over for Addai. Now, it's just one game. But the Broncos dropped 49 points on the defending champs, so it's not exactly like the offense struggled.

Brown was a late first rounder, Ball a late 2nd. From what we know historically, that doesn't portend greatness for Ball. Add to that the fact that he has no clue how to pass protect, and likely has his head swimming in the playbook. The kid is going to face a loaded box every time he comes in the game. I don't recall every play, but I do distinctly remember Peyton taking a sack on one of the first plays Ball was in the game as a blitz came delayed up the middle untouched to Manning. They're going to win with his arm... period.

Knowshon isn't special, but he can aggregate points when the defense only has 6 in the box, and with Welker, Thomas, Thomas, and Decker occupying the secondary, Knowshon is going to face a lot of VERY light fronts.

Knowshon's the guy until he gets hurt or someone takes it away from him. I don't see Hillman with the stature to handle that, or the running game chops to do so (not to mention he's still not quite as good in pass pro), but he'll serve a role as an explosive complement. Ball will likely be worked in as the season goes on, and they'll try to give him looks in garbage time to eat the clock. The problem is, as previously alluded to by myself and others, he's going to face stacked fronts as the D knows what's coming. And even if they do check to a pass, Peyton better get rid of it quickly.

The wildcard here is CJ Anderson. Staff must have thought pretty highly of the kid to keep an UDFA RB that missed the last 2 (or was it 3?) weeks of camp due to injury on the 53 man roster. He could take on a much bigger role in this backfield in the future. Honestly, I think the 'Shark Move' if there is one is to roster Anderson and Moreno.

 

[stlrams]

After last night, its obvious none of the 3 are worth a roster spot.. Glad I stayed away from this RBBC.

 

[3nOut]

I don't think it matters who gets the most touches anymore or who starts. This will clearly be a pass-first team as evidenced yesterday. They can decide to play one back 100% but it still won't make that back anything better then a bye week filler. Manning is a master of changing plays at the line of scrimmage. Even if a run play is called, he will audible to a pass play, even at the goal line like we saw yesterday.

 

[uwftbl]

It is more obvious to me that their offensive line sucks in run blocking.

 

[Shutout]

I don't think it matters who gets the most touches anymore or who starts. This will clearly be a pass-first team as evidenced yesterday. They can decide to play one back 100% but it still won't make that back anything better then a bye week filler. Manning is a master of changing plays at the line of scrimmage. Even if a run play is called, he will audible to a pass play, even at the goal line like we saw yesterday.

Its not realistic that the Broncos operate like this all year in terms of getting no ground TDs. There will be some. So, if you give the Denver RB 9-10 Tds on the ground for the year (and probably a pair or three through the air), it makes them very serviceable.

If Moreno had just happened to score a one yard TD last night, he would have been a very solid play last night. Despite it appearing very pedestrian, it would be on course for a top 15-18RB year and that does have value.

 

[jason12vb]

the Bronco's showed me enough to know that it's not worth rostering more than 1 player out of this backfield in hopes of an RB2 candidate in a 12 team redraft. I have Moreno and Ball, am dropping Moreno and going to sit on Ball until I need the roster spot. I think he's the only one capable of fantasy production at some point this year. Moreno might end up being a solid real world contributor who's only a bye week flex player...but depending on your league, that's not worth much of anything.

As expected Ball did get the goal line carries when the game was close, hoping we get to see him between the 20s in meaningful snaps at some point. I think the kid has a wow factor about him and is way more than the power-back many people seem to think...but obviously if you can't keep Peyton upright you're not going to get the chance to show what you can do.

 

[jason12vb]

The point about JT's inability to block is a very good point of relevance as well.

The Saints (and others) have shown that it pays to take cheap shots in exchange for penalties and fines...getting the ball out fast only goes so far in keeping your QB healthy. A poor blocking TE on the field at the same time as a poor blocking RB is likely not an insurance plan the Broncos are comfortable with.

 

[JFS171]

Not sure why you would outright drop Moreno after he dominated playing time last night...

 

[Mile High]

The point about JT's inability to block is a very good point of relevance as well.

The Saints (and others) have shown that it pays to take cheap shots in exchange for penalties and fines...getting the ball out fast only goes so far in keeping your QB healthy. A poor blocking TE on the field at the same time as a poor blocking RB is likely not an insurance plan the Broncos are comfortable with.

True. Things might change when Tamme is cleared to play.

 

[jason12vb]

Not sure why you would outright drop Moreno after he dominated playing time last night...

Playing time doesn't necessarily equal fantasy points. I don't think he's capable of putting up fantasy numbers worthy of holding on to a roster spot. I think it's RBBC and don't think they'll trust him at the goal-line for him to score enough TDs.

I should add two other relevant facts about my league.

1) I already have Peyton, JT, and Welker...that's enough eggs in one basket for me.

2) People rarely ever trade in this league and don't want the headache of trying to trade him when I have my eye on other targets in FA.

 

[JFS171]

It's your team, obviously. Just saying, Moreno produced last year in the same situation. He's got the PT from the looks of things. I'd have a hard time dropping that, but I may play in deeper leagues than average.

 

[Biabreakable]

I dont think this Offense needs a spectacular RB, thats when PM retires. Ball might be a long term project or at least a 2nd half project. Hillman is a 3rd down back guy again or when they are down and they need some big plays from the rb.

RIght now, Moreno offers max prtect a trusted RB who can hold onto the ball knows his formations and PM and Fox like.

He will be on the field on all critical situations, imho.

This is kind of how I have been seeing it as well. PM is going to put the ball up a lot. The Ravens were blitzing like crazy and the line did a good job of protecting him. Moreno is a big part of that, especially with DT on the field as someone else mentioned before. I saw Moreno multiple times pick up the right blitzer even if there was another guy coming through unblocked (he can't pick up 2 of them) he blocked the guy who would arrive soonest.

I think Moreno has lost some of his speed due to the injuries. I saw him pick his way through traffic on a couple of those runs, but he is not explosive enough to break out of the 2nd level, at least not against the Ravens.

For dynasty I think it is worth kicking the tires on Ball, if whoever has him wants to bail, he could develop into a good player in time.

I also agree the Bronco's Oline does not seem to be as good at run blocking as we have grown accustomed to. They did bring Gibbs back, so that could develop in time. But that does not seem to be their focus right now. Against some weaker defenses, maybe it will look different.

I actually think CJ Anderson is the best value if you can find a spot for him. I would look to stash him and Ball for the long haul. They could be very busy players in 2014 or possibly later on this year.

 

[Jewell]

Not sure why you would outright drop Moreno after he dominated playing time last night...

Playing time doesn't necessarily equal fantasy points. I don't think he's capable of putting up fantasy numbers worthy of holding on to a roster spot. I think it's RBBC and don't think they'll trust him at the goal-line for him to score enough TDs.

I should add two other relevant facts about my league.

1) I already have Peyton, JT, and Welker...that's enough eggs in one basket for me.

2) People rarely ever trade in this league and don't want the headache of trying to trade him when I have my eye on other targets in FA.

Which free agents are you considering over Moreno?

 

[Bob Magaw]

In PPR, I'll take Moreno every single day, especially at his dirt cheap price. Standard may lean Ball a little bit due to the supposed goalline role, but I won't be surprised at all if Moreno emerges with even more value. IMO we've seen this movie before, and I become more convinced of it day by day. Knowshon Moreno = Joseph Addai circa 2009.

In 2008, Addai played only 12 games, rushed for a whopping 3.5 YPC, had 25 receptions, 7 total TDs, and battled injuries. The Colts turned around and used the 27th overall pick (note - not a late 2nd or 3rd round selection) on Donald Brown. He was the heir-apparent, the guy that was supposed to fix the running game issues for Indy. He was the hot new toy in a Peyton Manning offense. Addai was cooked, until...

Addai wasn't cooked. Fast forward through the 2009 season and Addai finished with 219 carries for 828 yards, 51receptions for another 336 yards, and 13 total TDs. His efficiency metrics? Nothing special - 3.8 per carry, 6.6 per reception. But he won many fantasy titles for his owners as the cheap, old, broken down 26-year old former first rounder who never quite lived up to expectations. Sound familiar?

There's a clear link here -- Peyton Manning.

The beauty of a Manning-led offense is his ability to capitalize ANY GIVEN PLAY on the weakness of the defense. Pass or run, he'll find the area of the field the defense cannot adequately defend, and he'll exploit it. Now do you honestly believe Peyton is going to fully endorse a RB that makes him think twice about audibling to any given play? Especially a pass play because the current RB in the game isn't a great pass protector and he's got to worry about whether he'll get his head taken off? I don't.

Here's the other concern that no one is talking about - given Ball's struggles thus far in pass protection, Denver's probably not likely to put him in those situations, right? If we all know that, don't you think NFL defenses certainly know that? While Manning will help mitigate that to some extent, Drew Brees is also a pretty good QB though, and he wasn't able to fully mitigate defenses keying on the run when another touted rookie Mark Ingram came in the game. Defenses keyed on the run and blew up a lot of plays. Fantasy owners were disappointed. My point is that the Broncos know they've got to be careful to not have a situation where Ball comes in and the offense goes to a running play. Predictability is the enemy here -- or defenses will blow it up every single play.

Give me Moreno... I'll roll the dice there. Not to mention he looks pretty good to me thus far - better as a runner than last year IMO.

Looks like it's playing out exactly like that Colts offense when Brown was drafted to take over for Addai. Now, it's just one game. But the Broncos dropped 49 points on the defending champs, so it's not exactly like the offense struggled.

Brown was a late first rounder, Ball a late 2nd. From what we know historically, that doesn't portend greatness for Ball. Add to that the fact that he has no clue how to pass protect, and likely has his head swimming in the playbook. The kid is going to face a loaded box every time he comes in the game. I don't recall every play, but I do distinctly remember Peyton taking a sack on one of the first plays Ball was in the game as a blitz came delayed up the middle untouched to Manning. They're going to win with his arm... period.

Knowshon isn't special, but he can aggregate points when the defense only has 6 in the box, and with Welker, Thomas, Thomas, and Decker occupying the secondary, Knowshon is going to face a lot of VERY light fronts.

Knowshon's the guy until he gets hurt or someone takes it away from him. I don't see Hillman with the stature to handle that, or the running game chops to do so (not to mention he's still not quite as good in pass pro), but he'll serve a role as an explosive complement. Ball will likely be worked in as the season goes on, and they'll try to give him looks in garbage time to eat the clock. The problem is, as previously alluded to by myself and others, he's going to face stacked fronts as the D knows what's coming. And even if they do check to a pass, Peyton better get rid of it quickly.

The wildcard here is CJ Anderson. Staff must have thought pretty highly of the kid to keep an UDFA RB that missed the last 2 (or was it 3?) weeks of camp due to injury on the 53 man roster. He could take on a much bigger role in this backfield in the future. Honestly, I think the 'Shark Move' if there is one is to roster Anderson and Moreno.

there may be some similarities, and i appreciate the effort that went into looking for historical parallels...

but if ball is donald brown, and that makes moreno addai, i don't see moreno getting close to 13 TDs like circa 2009 addai...

most close observers to team (such as cec) expect ball to be used around the goal line (BAL game an aberration in that there were seven passing TDs)... if that proves true, the analogy breaks down there, because addai wouldn't have scored 13 TDs if brown had been a designated goal line scorer...

if moreno is a ponderous, plodding 3 YPC, even 20 carries yields just 6 points (not counting receptions in PPR)...

ball would just need a TD run to eclipse that...

against the ravens, moreno was 9-28 (3.1 YPC)... he was 3.8 last year (and as rookie)... best years were two & three (4.8 & 4.3)...

with his 3-37 receiving, that did get him to 65 combined yards...

another point not mentioned, for as long as this continues to be some kind of three way split, it is going to be hard for moreno to be useful (sproles can get way with nine carries with his receiving numbers, but he is a different animal)... i don't recall IND having a hillman analogue, contributing to a three way split... addai was good receiver, so no need... moreno is an adequate receiving back, but not as dynamic or explosive in space as hillman...

brown didn't gain an increasing role in 2009, ball might in 2013...

if ball becomes a goal line runner, which brown wasn't, and does something else brown couldn't, earn an expanded role, ball may not be doomed by history in an important respect...

2013 ball could capitalize on an opportunity to become more valuable as the season progresses, unlike 2009 brown...

 

[socrates]

Not sure why you would outright drop Moreno after he dominated playing time last night...

Playing time doesn't necessarily equal fantasy points. I don't think he's capable of putting up fantasy numbers worthy of holding on to a roster spot. I think it's RBBC and don't think they'll trust him at the goal-line for him to score enough TDs.

I should add two other relevant facts about my league.

1) I already have Peyton, JT, and Welker...that's enough eggs in one basket for me.

2) People rarely ever trade in this league and don't want the headache of trying to trade him when I have my eye on other targets in FA.

Which free agents are you considering over Moreno?

Of course, it all depends on league size, your own roster strengths, league format, etc...

I have myself dropped similar talent to Moreno to acquire a free agent I wanted.

The argument goes something like this: Moreno is just good enough to warrant holding onto, rarely if ever would crack into your starting lineup and offers little upside for dynasty purposes, yet for those exact reasons, plus owners' reluctance to make trades, he cannot be moved, so you either tie up a roster spot or cut him and add a player with perhaps even speculative upside. If you have a shallow bench, sometimes those are the tough choices you must make. I like nothing worse than feeling I have to hold onto a player and watching the player I actually wanted off the waiver wire get scooped up by another owner, then go on to produce.

If you feel the player you are targeting is a better fit for your team than Moreno, I say do it. You are here, so I will assume you are well informed. Trust your instincts.

Not certain that is the case here, but just suggesting it could be.

But I would also be curious who you are targeting . . .

 

[I Love Your Fantasy Team]

Not sure why you would outright drop Moreno after he dominated playing time last night...

League size might play a big part. I wouldn't be dying to hold him in an 8-12 teamer. 14-16 teamers, he's valuable.

 

[LawFitz]

Problem with Moreno is he's an accumulator, and he's got not one but two hungry cubs who will be lurking to steal touches as the season progresses. This will be even worse if Ball gets his head out of his a*& enough to get the GL carries.

 

[jason12vb]

Not sure why you would outright drop Moreno after he dominated playing time last night...

Playing time doesn't necessarily equal fantasy points. I don't think he's capable of putting up fantasy numbers worthy of holding on to a roster spot. I think it's RBBC and don't think they'll trust him at the goal-line for him to score enough TDs.

I should add two other relevant facts about my league.

1) I already have Peyton, JT, and Welker...that's enough eggs in one basket for me.

2) People rarely ever trade in this league and don't want the headache of trying to trade him when I have my eye on other targets in FA.

Which free agents are you considering over Moreno?

Of course, it all depends on league size, your own roster strengths, league format, etc...

I have myself dropped similar talent to Moreno to acquire a free agent I wanted.

The argument goes something like this: Moreno is just good enough to warrant holding onto, rarely if ever would crack into your starting lineup and offers little upside for dynasty purposes, yet for those exact reasons, plus owners' reluctance to make trades, he cannot be moved, so you either tie up a roster spot or cut him and add a player with perhaps even speculative upside. If you have a shallow bench, sometimes those are the tough choices you must make. I like nothing worse than feeling I have to hold onto a player and watching the player I actually wanted off the waiver wire get scooped up by another owner, then go on to produce.

If you feel the player you are targeting is a better fit for your team than Moreno, I say do it. You are here, so I will assume you are well informed. Trust your instincts.

Not certain that is the case here, but just suggesting it could be.

But I would also be curious who you are targeting . . .

This is exactly where my frame of mind is. I'll let someone else spend their time and effort trying to figure it out and roll the dice on not only whether it's even worth a roster spot, but also if that player is even startable each week. Meanwhile, I'll focus on the match-ups of my other players on my roster and looking for the next difference maker that's sitting on the waiver wire.

Who the players I'm targeting are is irrelevant to the thread...everyone's leagues are different (size, roster depth, my position depth, bye's, scoring, level of owners, $$, who's available, etc).

 

[Steed]

The point about JT's inability to block is a very good point of relevance as well.

The Saints (and others) have shown that it pays to take cheap shots in exchange for penalties and fines...getting the ball out fast only goes so far in keeping your QB healthy. A poor blocking TE on the field at the same time as a poor blocking RB is likely not an insurance plan the Broncos are comfortable with.

True. Things might change when Tamme is cleared to play.

Tamme played last night.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Moreno wasn't exciting, but you guys really believe he was that horrible last night? Ball didn't look more exciting at all. He didn't look better in august and still doesn't in september. He earned less playing time if anything, yet he's being discussed as the shark move still

And no #### Hillman looks more "explosive." He the fastest back they have .

They relied on the proven comodity to help them win the game, not score fantasy points. Knowshon played hard like he always does. Stats will come soon even at 4 yards a pop. Do you really think he won't be worthy vs Oak/Phi/Jac/Dal/Ind or the rest of the gifts they have on the schedule? Knowshon drove right by the fork.

 

[Kenny Powers]

How hasnt this team given McGahee a phone call. Their RBs looked awful last night despite the passing game being lights out.

 

[monk]

Problem with Moreno is he's an accumulator, and he's got not one but two hungry cubs who will be lurking to steal touches as the season progresses. This will be even worse if Ball gets his head out of his a*& enough to get the GL carries.

If Moreno takes advantage of the opportunity that he appears to be getting and gets into a rythm with the offense he may start getting a bigger share of the carries.

 

[Buffaloes]

How hasnt this team given McGahee a phone call. Their RBs looked awful last night despite the passing game being lights out.

fumbles, age, pretty big injury last year, fumbles, probably not an upgrade in the backfield now, fumbles

 

[Mile High]

The point about JT's inability to block is a very good point of relevance as well.

The Saints (and others) have shown that it pays to take cheap shots in exchange for penalties and fines...getting the ball out fast only goes so far in keeping your QB healthy. A poor blocking TE on the field at the same time as a poor blocking RB is likely not an insurance plan the Broncos are comfortable with.

True. Things might change when Tamme is cleared to play.

Tamme played last night.

Yeah you're right meant to say Dreessen. They scored 49 points they didn't need to run last night and the Ravens are/were good against the run. They will have games against teams they will be able to run against. Face it with their WRs/TE talent the Broncos will be a pass first team and be a 3 headed RB team.

 

[LawFitz]

Face it with their WRs/TE talent the Broncos will be a pass first team and be a 3 headed RB team.

It will be near worthless to have any but Moreno until midseason when one of the three breaks down. It's bound to happen. They are RBs. It's what they do. When it does, the remaining two will have significant value for the stretch run.

 

[Adam Harstad]

So obviously it sucks being wrong. Sucks, sucks, sucks. There's egg all over my face, and deservedly so, and congratulations to everyone who had the courage to roll with Moreno in week 1 over all of my objections. I haven't counted snaps yet (I've got an hour to kill, so I'm about to search and see if I can find it online, and if not, re-watch and log them myself), but I'd be surprised if Moreno didn't get at least 50% of the total RB snaps. In the first half, it was probably closer to 66%. I do know he was the guy out there to start each of the first six series.

Obviously the goal is to be right the whole season. Now that that's blown, let's try just being right the rest of the way. I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

As far as my notes on each individual back... they're all exactly as expected. Moreno is the Mendoza Line of RBs in terms of running the ball. He had two runs in the first half where he showed a nice hesitation cut, and he did a good job of lowering his shoulder when finishing runs, but in all he's as good of a runner as I'd expect some random street free agent to be. Ronnie Hillman has no creativity, but he'll make some positive plays just through raw speed alone. There were two plays he made that the other backs couldn't have simply because they don't have the jets. Ball looked the best of the three running, which is the definition of damning with faint praise, because Ball was merely solid and became totally invisible once Baltimore started stacking the defense against him. I also didn't notice Ball make any errors in pass protection, although like I said, Denver had an awfully run-heavy game plan by the time he was in, so it's not like he was tasked with all that much.

 

[Adam Harstad]

As a Moreno owner, if the Ball owner gets too down on him I might target him. Knowshon did exactly what he does. Didn't miss 1 assignment (to my untrained eye), was always in the right spot, made blocks, ran hard to get yards including a first down, caught balls out of the backfield, etc. He gets the job done but won't carry a team. Ball did look like the better runner to me, especially on that one play with the quick cutback. But he did almost screw up that handoff and they ran the ball when he was in there. Baltimore's front 7 is tough so he didn't make too much out of the garbage time. But against a weaker D, in a blowout, he could rack up some second half #'s.

The only thing I'm sure of is Hillman is NOT the back. Too small, strictly change of pace.

He did badly miss in pass protection in the 3rd quarter, and he had to resort to a pretty blatant hold.

1-10-Den 26 (4:55) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-W.Welker to DEN 40 for 14 yards (21-L.Webb). PENALTY on DEN-27-K.Moreno, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26 - No Play.

At least two of Manning's sacks came with Moreno on the field (I don't know who was on for the 3rd one), although neither of them was Moreno's fault. This isn't to suggest that Moreno's not the best pass-blocking RB on the roster (he is), although both Hillman and Ball did their jobs in that department.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Adam, lesson learned here is a leopard (or a FOX) never changes his spots.

With John Fox as coach its obivous who the RB to get most of the action as long as he was healthy would be

 

[monk]

As a Moreno owner, if the Ball owner gets too down on him I might target him. Knowshon did exactly what he does. Didn't miss 1 assignment (to my untrained eye), was always in the right spot, made blocks, ran hard to get yards including a first down, caught balls out of the backfield, etc. He gets the job done but won't carry a team. Ball did look like the better runner to me, especially on that one play with the quick cutback. But he did almost screw up that handoff and they ran the ball when he was in there. Baltimore's front 7 is tough so he didn't make too much out of the garbage time. But against a weaker D, in a blowout, he could rack up some second half #'s.

The only thing I'm sure of is Hillman is NOT the back. Too small, strictly change of pace.

He did badly miss in pass protection in the 3rd quarter, and he had to resort to a pretty blatant hold.

1-10-Den 26 (4:55) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-W.Welker to DEN 40 for 14 yards (21-L.Webb). PENALTY on DEN-27-K.Moreno, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26 - No Play.

At least two of Manning's sacks came with Moreno on the field (I don't know who was on for the 3rd one), although neither of them was Moreno's fault. This isn't to suggest that Moreno's not the best pass-blocking RB on the roster (he is), although both Hillman and Ball did their jobs in that department.

Just stop ... you cant help yourself and it's getting anoying.

The hold was actually a smart play ... it kept Peyton from taking an unnecessary hit and the results.

They lose yards but not the down and Peyton did not get hit

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

 

[Buffaloes]

The hold was a smart play and was indicative of a RB who knows that if he is beat (which will happen from time to time) then make sure the QB doesn't get hit. The very next play (1st and 20), Manning hit Moreno for a 20+ yard gain to pick up the 1st down.

 

[One]

As a Moreno owner, if the Ball owner gets too down on him I might target him. Knowshon did exactly what he does. Didn't miss 1 assignment (to my untrained eye), was always in the right spot, made blocks, ran hard to get yards including a first down, caught balls out of the backfield, etc. He gets the job done but won't carry a team. Ball did look like the better runner to me, especially on that one play with the quick cutback. But he did almost screw up that handoff and they ran the ball when he was in there. Baltimore's front 7 is tough so he didn't make too much out of the garbage time. But against a weaker D, in a blowout, he could rack up some second half #'s.

The only thing I'm sure of is Hillman is NOT the back. Too small, strictly change of pace.

He did badly miss in pass protection in the 3rd quarter, and he had to resort to a pretty blatant hold.

1-10-Den 26 (4:55) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-W.Welker to DEN 40 for 14 yards (21-L.Webb). PENALTY on DEN-27-K.Moreno, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26 - No Play.

At least two of Manning's sacks came with Moreno on the field (I don't know who was on for the 3rd one), although neither of them was Moreno's fault. This isn't to suggest that Moreno's not the best pass-blocking RB on the roster (he is), although both Hillman and Ball did their jobs in that department.

Just stop ... you cant help yourself and it's getting anoying.The hold was actually a smart play ... it kept Peyton from taking an unnecessary hit and the results.

They lose yards but not the down and Peyton did not get hit

Owners drafting rookies are unbelievably delusional. I know, cause I'm usually that guy. It's easy to call the veteran 'just a guy' or the new, trendy 'Mendoza line guy', but it's too bad they can't look past how real football is played, instead they only see how amazing their rookie looked in college, not how much of a liability he'll be to the NFL team's strength (in this case, the pass game & #18).

I refuse to draft RBs on passing offenses with immobile stud QBs. I was burnt by Donald Brown, watched the David Wilson owners feel pain all of last season and cringed every time I saw Ball drafted in the first 4 rounds.

Unlike David Wilson last season, I don't even see the 'special' in Ball at all. He looks like the next guy we'll all laugh at and call a plodder in a few years.

Just my 2 cents. I'm not always right, but I like to find my mistakes, try to learn from them and move on.

Good luck.

 

[Adam Harstad]

As a Moreno owner, if the Ball owner gets too down on him I might target him. Knowshon did exactly what he does. Didn't miss 1 assignment (to my untrained eye), was always in the right spot, made blocks, ran hard to get yards including a first down, caught balls out of the backfield, etc. He gets the job done but won't carry a team. Ball did look like the better runner to me, especially on that one play with the quick cutback. But he did almost screw up that handoff and they ran the ball when he was in there. Baltimore's front 7 is tough so he didn't make too much out of the garbage time. But against a weaker D, in a blowout, he could rack up some second half #'s.

The only thing I'm sure of is Hillman is NOT the back. Too small, strictly change of pace.

He did badly miss in pass protection in the 3rd quarter, and he had to resort to a pretty blatant hold.

1-10-Den 26 (4:55) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-W.Welker to DEN 40 for 14 yards (21-L.Webb). PENALTY on DEN-27-K.Moreno, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26 - No Play.

At least two of Manning's sacks came with Moreno on the field (I don't know who was on for the 3rd one), although neither of them was Moreno's fault. This isn't to suggest that Moreno's not the best pass-blocking RB on the roster (he is), although both Hillman and Ball did their jobs in that department.

Just stop ... you cant help yourself and it's getting anoying.

The hold was actually a smart play ... it kept Peyton from taking an unnecessary hit and the results.

They lose yards but not the down and Peyton did not get hit

Stop what? The hold was only a smart play because Moreno got beaten badly. I agree that I'd rather have him committing the makeup hold than allowing the sack, but the fact remains, if Moreno hadn't blown the block, he wouldn't have had to choose either.

Again, Moreno's the best pass-blocking back on the roster. He was blocking on 12 snaps, compared to 4 snaps for Hillman and 3 for Ball, so it's not surprising he blew a block and they didn't. I'm just saying, the OP said he didn't see Moreno make a single mistake in pass protection, and in the interest of accuracy I pointed out that Moreno did, in fact, screw up once in pass protection. He was smart enough to commit the makeup hold and keep Manning's jersey clean, but he committed the hold because the defender had him beat. Nobody's perfect.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Adam, lesson learned here is a leopard (or a FOX) never changes his spots.

With John Fox as coach its obivous who the RB to get most of the action as long as he was healthy would be

Was it, and is it? Did John Fox ever list Stephen Davis as 3rd on his depth chart and then start him anyway? Did he list DeAngelo Williams over Deshaun Foster? Or Stewart over Williams? Fox always preferred the veterans, true, but his depth chart always reflected that preference. I think it's fair to question what Moreno's place on the depth chart means.

The coaching staff must have had a reason for putting Moreno 3rd on the depth chart. I want to know what that reason was. To fool the Ravens? Something else?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Adam, lesson learned here is a leopard (or a FOX) never changes his spots.

With John Fox as coach its obivous who the RB to get most of the action as long as he was healthy would be

Was it, and is it? Did John Fox ever list Stephen Davis as 3rd on his depth chart and then start him anyway? Did he list DeAngelo Williams over Deshaun Foster? Or Stewart over Williams? Fox always preferred the veterans, true, but his depth chart always reflected that preference. I think it's fair to question what Moreno's place on the depth chart means.

The coaching staff must have had a reason for putting Moreno 3rd on the depth chart. I want to know what that reason was. To fool the Ravens? Something else?

It was to me

Give HIllman and Ball all the snaps in practice, we are talking practice. depth charts are relatively meaningless

I dont think it matters much though because they are all going to cancel out each others value while all 3 remain healthy, plus peyton is going to throw it 60% of the time anyway

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

 

[monk]

Adam, lesson learned here is a leopard (or a FOX) never changes his spots.

With John Fox as coach its obivous who the RB to get most of the action as long as he was healthy would be

Was it, and is it? Did John Fox ever list Stephen Davis as 3rd on his depth chart and then start him anyway? Did he list DeAngelo Williams over Deshaun Foster? Or Stewart over Williams? Fox always preferred the veterans, true, but his depth chart always reflected that preference. I think it's fair to question what Moreno's place on the depth chart means.

The coaching staff must have had a reason for putting Moreno 3rd on the depth chart. I want to know what that reason was. To fool the Ravens? Something else?

The lesson is ... Dont listen to what the coches are saying if it doesn't makes sense.

For Example:

Believe - If the coach says I am starting Moreno because he is a solid veteran and the best blocker and we need to keep Manning safe.

Dont Believe - If the coach says "the little guy that fumbles often is #1, The big guy that can't block and hasnt impressed is #2, and the Veteran who does everything pretty good and is the best pass blocker is #3.

 

[monk]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

When and why would that ever happen.

They have arguably the greatest QB that has ever played and at least 4 or 5 solid receiving options

 

[Mile High]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

When and why would that ever happen.

They have arguably the greatest QB that has ever played and at least 4 or 5 solid receiving options

I don't know if they will every have a run heavy game plan but they are playing outdoors at a mile high. We could have snow at any time from now on.

 

[rickyg]

It's your team, obviously. Just saying, Moreno produced last year in the same situation. He's got the PT from the looks of things. I'd have a hard time dropping that, but I may play in deeper leagues than average.

Last year I rode Moreno to a sb with McFadden on my bench. He has every opportunity to be the same back this year.

 

[Eminence]

To be fair, the Raven's D-Line is pretty stout.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

You need to do more homework before you make that statement about Moreno. I've came to the conclusion that most of you guys are just conditioned to believe Knowshon is awful. Truth is, when he isn't out with nagging injuries and gets work he has been a really nice NFL/FF performer. I'm sure I posted the numbers in this thread, but he has not been avg for FF when he's recieved 15+ touches in a game. He actually produces top-12 numbers when he gets 15+ touches a game. I don't understand what caused the blind spot. He was a high performer just late last year! We all know things can get muddy here pretty quickly. I still wouldn't avoid this RB situation. NYG-OAK-PHI-DAL-JAC-IND-WAS before Den BYE Week-9 and divisional matchups with San Diego and Kansas City. I will take Mendoza in this offense with that schedule over anyone you recommend near his ADP. I don't even care if it takes 4-6 weeks for him to lose the main-carry job if he helps me get through 25-50% of my schedule. If someone wants to overpay after Mathew Berry says he likes him next week then he is a pretty good flip. He is also a strong hold. His value can only increase with a nice game(or 4-5).

Chalk one up to being smooth talked by coaches instead of your own logic.

 

[Buffaloes]

You need to do more homework before you make that statement about Moreno.

SSOG is a Denver fan and has probably seen more of Moreno's plays than most of the board. That said, Moreno is a polarizing player for a lot of Denver fans based on his NFL draft status and who drafted him. But I'd bet SSOG has seen more of Moreno's snaps than most of the posters in this thread. Not saying his judgment is clouded vs. Moreno, but I think he's done his homework.

 

[ffldrew]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

When and why would that ever happen.

They have arguably the greatest QB that has ever played and at least 4 or 5 solid receiving options

I don't know if they will every have a run heavy game plan but they are playing outdoors at a mile high. We could have snow at any time from now on.

Mile High - they'll be passing in the snow unless it's an epic blizzard and even then I think they throw, Nearly ever snow game I've been to or seen here have usually favored the quick short passing routes. Peyton to Welker in the snow will be unstoppable.

 

[ShaHBucks]

You need to do more homework before you make that statement about Moreno.

SSOG is a Denver fan and has probably seen more of Moreno's plays than most of the board. That said, Moreno is a polarizing player for a lot of Denver fans based on his NFL draft status and who drafted him. But I'd bet SSOG has seen more of Moreno's snaps than most of the posters in this thread. Not saying his judgment is clouded vs. Moreno, but I think he's done his homework.

I get the same vibe so point taken. I'm talking about the numbers really. Thats the game we play and they don't equate to avg when he gets his carries.

 

[Saint]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

Adam, I have to disagree a bit with your prognosis.

Ball's first two carries came at 9:06 in the 3rd quarter at the Baltimore 15 with the score 28-17. He did not touch the ball again until the 4th quarter at 10:28, where they ran 3 runs and punted, and then again at 5:29 and 2:19. Ball became involved in the game when Denver had a comfortable lead and wanted to burn the clock.

Moreno on the other hand was the main guy in quarters 1-3 for the most part with Hillman spelling him. Hillman was used in the 1st quarter, 3rd quarter, and 4th quarter. I am not reading anything into this mess based on Montee's usage when the game was well in hand. In my opinion, Ball is the run out the clock guy, but I certainly wouldn't say he was the run-heavy guy. That was the nature of his usage.

Right now, there is no value in the DEN running game unless one person comes out of this mess.

 

[Steelers4Life]

What makes anyone think the Broncos will EVER enter a game with a run-heavy game plan when the strength of their team is Manning, Thomas, Welker, and Decker? There may be certain quarters or certain drives where that changes, but I'd expect them to feature the passing game and play the RB best suited to both catch passes and protect the franchise.

Unless Ball learns to pass-protect, I'd expect Moreno to be on the field the most of the three while any game is close. Once Denver pulls ahead, it's anyone's guess. In a redraft league, barring injury I don't see Hillman being worth a roster spot and Ball might only be useful in TD only leagues if he's the goal-line back.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

C.J. Anderson ‏@CjAndersonRB9 2h

Some cutting went well very Lil pain as expected but better than what we thought day by day