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Broncos RB. (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Thought Ball looked solid near the goal line.
Mile High
Footballguy
purestrength
Footballguy
I would think Gase has made and will continue to make most of those decisions.
Rove!
Footballguy
SanDawg
Footballguy
Buffaloes
Footballguy
They were in an uptempto mode and Hillman was the RB on the field at the time, IIRC. It was likely Gase or Peyton that called for the tempo, which resulted in Hillman being at the GL. That's how the offence seems to work when they want to go fast.
IAOFM (the most tuned-in Denver blog) is saying that they've heard that Moreno's 2014 club option season actually voids, which means that Knowshon Moreno is 100% certain to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. I'd think he's probably earned himself a starting job somewhere next year, even if it's not in Denver.
cstu
Footballguy
This is the first I've heard of it. Given the lack of RB's around the league I do expect him to be a starter next year, just not as successful.
It was the first I'd heard of it, too, and I felt it was worth passing along. Still, the guys at IAOFM have always been extremely plugged-in, and I'd noticed a lot of irregularities when researching the option year (for instance, it's always reported as a $5mil club option, but Sportrac's salary information doesn't reflect anything near that large), so I do believe them when they say it.cstu said:
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Doubt he gets more then Reggie Bush's contract so a guaranteed 5 million for one season with Peyton would not have been that bad of an option for him.
purestrength
Footballguy
What's with all the Ball playing time? And why did the Broncos decide to quit throwing screens to Moreno?
No clue why Moreno wasn't more involved in the passing game (probably Peyton playing 8th-dimensional chess with the Chiefs, who no doubt came into the game EXPECTING him to throw a lot of screens to Moreno). Otherwise... Knowshon got 27 carries. That's a ridiculous workload, probably more than Denver would like for him to have. Ball got a little bit of work spelling him. It just happened that Ball got the TDs today instead of Moreno. Knowshon was still clearly Denver's first option.
CariocaSean
Footballguy
I don't know... Is Ball the goal line back now? Maybe it is like you said and just a rhythm thing, or maybe they plan on using Ball down by the goal line. I hope you're right and it was just a rhythm thing but as a Moreno owner I am starting to get a bad feeling that his value is about to diminish a lot.
Denver hasn't used a designated goal line back all season. If there's no play stoppage and they're in the hurry up, then whoever is the RB on the field when they get to the goal line is the RB they use at the goal line. If there is a play stoppage (penalty, timeout, or the like), then Denver may or may not shuffle up their personnel. That's what happened to Moreno, who was in at the goal line until a defensive holding penalty gave Denver a chance to shuffle personnel, leaving Ball the guy holding the ticket when it came up for a TD.
For example, on Denver's first touchdown, Montee Ball was the RB on the field when Denver drove the ball into the red zone. Kansas City committed a defensive penalty, which let Denver swap out its personnel, meaning Knowshon Moreno was the back who came in and got action once Denver was actually in the red zone. Moreno was on the field as Denver drove down to 1st and goal at the one, and even received that first snap at the goal line (where Denver play faked to him before throwing it). Then another KC penalty gave Denver another chance to swap personnel, Ball came in, and he scored on the next play. You can't really say that Ball was the "goal line RB", because Knowshon Moreno got the very first snap on 1st-and-goal from the 1. Ball just happened to be the guy sitting in the seat when the music stopped.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I'm not down on Moreno for the ROS(well just a tad). He got a GL carry, it just was't his day. He converts and there isn't much to talk about. The count was 27 carries to 8...
If Moreno doesn't stay, I think he's played well enough to earn a job elsewhere. Not like he's earned it, but I'm putting a few chips down on Ball as the main guy for Denver in 2014 in my leagues. If he doesn't rush for 2 TDs next week I'm buying.
If Moreno doesn't stay, I think he's played well enough to earn a job elsewhere. Not like he's earned it, but I'm putting a few chips down on Ball as the main guy for Denver in 2014 in my leagues. If he doesn't rush for 2 TDs next week I'm buying.
CariocaSean
Footballguy
Thanks for the insight. Both times they had the opportunity to switch personnel based on defensive penalties, they switched to Ball. I hope you are right and it has nothing to do with an intention moving forward to feature him down near the goal line.
ahartig
Footballguy
I dunno, I think it's pretty clear that Ball is the preferred / default option when they are one or two yards out.....makes me a little scared for morenos value.
CariocaSean
Footballguy
It's not so much the split that has me slightly concerned. Clearly that is in Moreno's favor. At least yesterday, Ball got the much more valuable carries, including 1st and goal at the one. That is what has me concerned. I hope I am wrong.
I thought it was completely disrespectful to run the guy into the ground and then replace him at the 1/2 yard line with a rookie that had just fumbled a routine hand-off.
Wasn't a very flashy day for Moreno.
What was impressive though ... with all those carries against a very good D, he did not have a single negative carry until his 26th carry when KC had basically 11 in the box on the Denver's final clock killing drive.
Why they couldn't give him the 1/2 yard TD after he drove it down to the 1 yard line is beyond me.
Wasn't a very flashy day for Moreno.
What was impressive though ... with all those carries against a very good D, he did not have a single negative carry until his 26th carry when KC had basically 11 in the box on the Denver's final clock killing drive.
Why they couldn't give him the 1/2 yard TD after he drove it down to the 1 yard line is beyond me.
1st and 10 at Den 21 - Moreno
1st and 10 at Den 32 - Moreno
2nd and 9 at Den 33 - Moreno
1st and 10 at KC 47 - Moreno
2nd and 10 at KC 47 - Moreno (play is a long gain out of bounds, stops the clock and moves the chains)
1st and 10 at KC 18 - Ball
2nd and 11 at KC 19 - Ball (play draws a defensive penalty, stops the clock and moves the chains)
1st and 10 at KC 14 - Moreno
2nd and 9 at KC 13 - Moreno
3rd and 2 at KC 6 - Moreno
1st and 1 at KC 1 - Moreno (play draws a defensive penalty, stops the clock, resets the downs)
1st and 1 at KC 1 - Ball
One time they switched to Ball, one time they switched to Moreno. Denver ran 12 plays in the drive, and Moreno got 9 of them. Denver ran 7 plays inside the red zone, and Moreno was in on 4 of them. Denver ran two plays from the 1 yard line, and Moreno was in on the first one.
1st and 10 at Den 35 - Moreno
1st and 10 at Den 46 - Moreno
2nd and 10 at Den 46 - Moreno
3rd and 3 at KC 47 - Moreno (play is a long gain, resets the chains)
1st and 10 at KC 14 - Ball
2nd and 4 at KC 8 - Ball
More of the same on Ball's second touchdown. Moreno had the drive, Denver had a break in the action and a chance to swap personnel, Ball lucked into the touchdown.
Denver's first touchdown drive (the pass to Julius Thomas) was all Moreno- 5 snaps, Moreno in for all five of them, including two snaps with goal-to-go from the 9 yard line. Denver had gotten a 70-yard gain to Demaryius the play before, so if they'd wanted to change personnel to get Ball in once they reached the red zone, they would have had a perfect opportunity. They declined, and kept Moreno on the field, instead.
There was no pattern to the usage, no expressed preference for either Moreno or Ball in one area of the field over the other. When Denver had a chance to switch and felt it was worthwhile, they switched, whether they were in the red zone or not, whether they were switching to Ball or Moreno. All told, their three touchdown drives included 11 snaps in the red zone, and Moreno got 6 of them (54.5%). They included 6 snaps inside the 10-yard line, and Moreno got 4 of them (66.7%). They included four true "goal-to-go" snaps, and Moreno got 3 of them (75.0%). Usage-wise, there was nothing in the game to indicate that Denver preferred Ball over Moreno in high-leverage situations. Instead, it was a game of musical chairs, and Ball just twice happened to be the guy in the game when the music stopped.
Coming into this week, Denver had called 23 runs inside the 5 yard line. Moreno received 12 of them to just 5 for Montee Ball (3 for Hillman, 3 for Manning). Moreno's 12 rushes in that situation actually rank 4th in the entire NFL. This week, Denver ran only two plays inside KC's 5 yard line. Knowshon Moreno was in on one. Montee Ball was in on the other. I don't think it's at all clear that Denver prefers Montee Ball at the goal line, and I notice nobody was suggesting as much back when Moreno was busy scoring 3 short touchdown runs against Jacksonville.
Random is random, and touchdowns are volatile. Some days, the dice are going to come up in Montee Ball's favor. Yesterday was one of those days. That doesn't change the fact that, on the whole, those dice have been pretty heavily weighted towards Knowshon Moreno to this point.
I would be more concerned with the coaches becoming more comfortable with Montee Ball and turning the position into a true timeshare than I would with the prospects of Montee Ball becoming the designated "goal line back" going forward. There was some speculation earlier in the year that that might happen, but to this point, signs of it have yet to materialize.
The fumble wasn't on Ball. It did look like he was closing his arms a little bit early, but on replay, it's clear that Manning put it in too high, anyway. Manning took the blame for the fumble in the post-game press conference, saying "I was just trying to hurry to get the ball in Montee’s hands. They were kind of blitzing, and I rushed the handoff and didn’t give him a good handoff at all."
Honestly, I don't think it's a simple "it was 100% Manning's fault" or "it was 100% Ball's fault" sort of issue. The immediate reaction is going to be to blame Ball, because he's earned much less benefit of the doubt. After watching it a few times, it looks much more like the blame should be split somewhere between 50/50 and 66/33 in favor of Manning.
Either way, there's no "respect" or "disrespect" in how Denver handled Moreno. It's not like they didn't give him chances to score TDs, or they haven't given him chances to score so far this season. Denver doesn't own Knowshon Moreno on its fantasy team, they aren't particularly interested in padding his stats. They're interested in scoring touchdowns (something they did, twice) and in keeping Moreno fresh and healthy for the stretch run and the playoffs (something they seem to have done for another week, although 27 carries was probably pushing it a bit). To accomplish that second goal, they rotate other backs in with Moreno. It's something they've been doing all year. Moreno's typically in for about 2/3s of Denver's snaps. I haven't seen the snap counts from KC yet, but I'd imagine it was right in that same neighborhood. Sometimes Moreno's on the field when Denver scores a TD, sometimes he's not. That's how the whole offense is. Sometimes Demaryius Thomas has a 3-TD day, sometimes he gets largely ignored and Manning goes to Welker and Julius in the end zone. Eric Decker only has 3 TDs on the year despite playing really well, but that's not really "unfair" or "disrespectful" to Decker, that's just how the offense works. Who knows, maybe next week Decker gets 3 TDs of his own. Denver's going to score a ton of TDs this year, and those TDs are going to be pretty randomly distributed among a bunch of different guys. That's just how their offense works, and it seems to be working pretty well for them.
The New Orleans Saints are much the same way. Some days a WR has a huge game for them, other days he's quiet. Doesn't mean they don't like that WR and won't use him going forward, just means that the game plan called for something different that day, or the WR got a few unlucky breaks. In the long run, things will even out.
I agree ... it's not about fantasy football and they do need to rest Moreno.
I just think if your going to pound the ball 79 1/2 yards with Moreno down to the half yard line let him finish the job and give Ball the next series.
RB's hate doing the grunt work only to see someone else get the glory (ask Lynch) ... most coaches are sensitive to that.
purestrength
Footballguy
I just know if the Broncos keeps letting their fumblers get the ball at the goal line (i.e. Hillman and Ball), they're going to lose another big game like they did against the Colts.
Feel free to quote this post after it happens for real.
Feel free to quote this post after it happens for real.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
But they shouldn't be. RBs who get pissy about it need to get over it, and there is no reason to think that Moreno was bothered at all by it.
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I can't say I agree, aside from costing me fantasy points. When the game is in the balance there is a very strong preference for Moreno. It's been the case all season. I didn't catch the fumble from Ball.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Manning doesn't get charged with fumbles. He took his mind off the ball for a second and was unable to will it where he wanted it to go with his telekinetic abilities. That is clearly Ball's fault!
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
Ball worth owning or am I chasing points?
hxperson
Footballguy
Ignore this if you want, but Harstad has had good info in here. If anything, he has an incentive to be biased against Moreno. I'm a Ball owner and I agree with Harstad - while it was nice to see Ball get some carries and TD's despite his fumble earlier on (I believe that was his fault and not Peyton), I saw nothing last week to make me think the situation has changed meaningfully.
MCguidance
Footballguy
After all of that top-rate analysis, this is what you say?
I came in looking for an answer and pretty sure I found with with Adam's post. Good stuff.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
worth hanging onto, imo. The backfield has gone from a sort of 3-headed attack to Moreno and Ball now, the team seems to trust him more, and he's likely to be the guy they rely on down the stretch during the 4-minute drill. Denver's schedule gets a little easier (on paper) following the next 2 weeks and Ball's seen an increased usage and has proven proficient at the GL. He could be a guy they rely on toward the end of the game to salt away the clock and to punch it in from inside the 5.
moleculo
Footballguy
not if he keeps fumbling. I know - that KC one may be on Manning, but that would be a symptom of reps, which he may not have vs Moreno.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
no idea whether it was Ball, Manning, or both at fault for the one in the in the previous game, but the staff thought enough to keep Ball in the game. Ball didn't have a problem fumbling in college and since Eric Studesville helped find a fix for his fumbling issues, he hasn't fumbled. I agree fumbles could derail his usage, but there are reasons to think he could be past those issues.
After the next 2 games the schedule gets much easier and I think Denver is likely to rely on another RB to keep Moreno fresh enough for the playoffs.
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moleculo
Footballguy
if there is a usage pattern, its this - Moreno is more involved in the passing game. Denver will be leading with a pass-first offense until they are up by 17 or more, and then become run-heavy - therefore Moreno will remain the guy to have. Ball will get occasional carries spelling Moreno like SSOG pointed out above.
it would be interesting to count the number of run vs pass plays these guys were in vs KC, as well as look at Denvers overall run/pass ratio prior to obtaining a 17 point lead. That should tell us something interesting. Maybe I'll look at it tomorrow.
it would be interesting to count the number of run vs pass plays these guys were in vs KC, as well as look at Denvers overall run/pass ratio prior to obtaining a 17 point lead. That should tell us something interesting. Maybe I'll look at it tomorrow.
I like Ball for next year, probably going to try to acquire in Dynasty. I like the way he runs and a high-flying pass attack with a bruising Running Back would be fun to watch. Would love to see him vulture some of Peyton's RZ Touchdowns in the future.
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Only owned any Denver RBs in one league this year, a startup dynasty where I grabbed all three (Ball, Hillman, and Moreno). I cut Hillman after the New York game. I traded Moreno at the trade deadline for Tavon Austin and a 2nd. Ball is firmly planted on my bench. No real rooting stakes in the situation from a fantasy standpoint.
At the same time, I'm a lifelong Denver fan, and I'm the guy who covers the team for FBGs. In terms of rooting interest, I'm in favor of whatever's best for the team. In terms of motivation, I'm concerned with reporting the situation as objectively and predicting the situation as accurately as I can. If I go out on a limb and say "Moreno isn't losing his goal line work" and it turns out that I'm wrong, that reflects very poorly on me and on FBGs in general. Now, I'm going to make some calls at times, and I'm going to be wrong at times, but I'm going to do my best to make those calls as informed as possible and to shore up my position with as much research and analysis as possible before going out on any limbs.
That's not to say that I might not be wrong. I thought before the season that Moreno had no shot at the starting job. I could not have possibly been more wrong. Being wrong sucks. As a rule, I try to avoid it whenever possible.
Moreno was in on 60 plays. He ran routes 26 times, ran the ball 27 times, and blocked 7 times. Ball ran routes 11 times, ran 8 times, and blocked 3 times. The game plan seemed pretty consistent to me from the first to the second half, and from Moreno to Ball. A lot of times, I had to rewind and double check which back was in, because Denver was lacking a lot of its early-season tells. Seems like a positive development for Montee Ball, like he's now a true backup rather than some sort of specialist or niche RB. Denver's snap counts would seem to bear that out, too, as Ball and Moreno have been the only guys seeing any playing time recently (compared to early in the season, where there were three backs getting meaningful snaps in every game).
