Just last year, Willis McGahee finished 15th out of 42 backs who had 100 or more attempts in rushing NEP. And he was better than teammate
Knowshon Moreno, who sat in a similar situation in Denver. Clearly Willis was fortunate to be playing with Peyton Manning in a potent offense, but it’s not as though he was a dreadful runner.
As for Ogbonnaya, well, his story isn’t a very happy one. He’s only received more than 10 carries in a season once, and that was in 2011 when he rushed 76 times. That year, just only 34.21 percent of his runs were successful. In other words, just a little over one-third of his attempts resulted in positive net expected point plays. Most of the time, Ogbonnaya was hurting the Browns compared to a replacement-level runner. To put that kind of success rate into perspective, that type of percentage would rank him in the bottom 10 among 50-plus attempt runners most years.
That’s important to note, too. Net expected points data generally correlates nicely to fantasy success, as long as volume is understood. Clearly for Ogbonnaya, if he gets the same type of usage as he did in 2011, it could mean he won’t be much of an asset on the ground.
The passing game is a different story, though. The Browns back could be an interesting PPR tool, as he’s caught 51 balls over his career, including 24 last season. With an increased role, perhaps Ogbonnaya sees 40 catches. Perhaps.
Of course, keep an eye on the running back split as the season progresses. Willis McGahee (if he does indeed sign) could slow down as his body slowly turns 93 years old, and that could open up opportunity for someone like
Bobby Rainey, who signed with Cleveland after being cut by the Ravens. For now though, McGahee is the guy to target off the wire given his history, and don’t overlook Ogbonnaya in PPR leagues. Rainey is simply a player to watch in the coming weeks.
