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Burned by player the previous year (1 Viewer)

tombonneau

Footballguy
...your view of player in current year?

The cold-hearted fantasy footballer in you of course says you shouldn't have any biases towards players based on how they treated you in the past, every year is a new year.

But the football fan and the guy who watches games, says "There is absolutely no way I'm going to stomach another 16 games having to root for this turd only to watch him flop."

A guy I'm struggling with drafting this year is Kevin Jones. Like lots of folks I took him end of round 1 in 05 with visions of his killer games down the stretch in 04 dancing in my head. He of course was a massive turd.

I just had to take him in a mock, and I could barely click the button.

Is this irrational?

In a way, for certain guys who burned you, you are actually leveraging your up-close-and-personal experiences with the player.

e.g. in the case of KJ, it wasn't so much he sucked in 05, it was that he would have 60 yds in the 1st quarter, then come out for cramps and not play another snap.

So in his case, seeing that he is a soft player that won't play through pain gives you an advantage over other players who might not realize this component of his "game."

On the flip side, I took Gonzo in the 3rd last year which was a "bust" but would take him again in a heartbeat for where he is going in drafts this year. Again, with the up-close experience, it wasn't so much Gonzo took a step back, he simply didn't score TDs, which as we all know is a highly mutable statistical category.

Anyway, just wondering if other folks out there struggle with re-drafting guys who burned them, and maybe some posters can share uplifting success stories of cases where having a blind eye for the guy who burned you turned into a windfall when you had the stones to draft him the next year. :)

 
...your view of player in current year?

e.g. in the case of KJ, it wasn't so much he sucked in 05, it was that he would have 60 yds in the 1st quarter, then come out for cramps and not play another snap.

So in his case, seeing that he is a soft player that won't play through pain gives you an advantage over other players who might not realize this component of his "game."
:goodposting:
 
If I think the reason for his bad performance still exists, then I wouldn't take him. For instance, Domanick Davis worries me again because of the state of his knee.

If it was something that happened but I see an improved situation, then I would still take that player. For example, I wouldn't avoid Peyton Manning because he only played a quarter over the last two games. Gonzalez was a good example too. He got his touches, he just failed to convert as many TDs.

 
:yes:

Micheal Clayton. and thats all i got to say about that.
i'm not touching that kool-aid again. same for deuce,traded picks for him (last year) in a keeper league,gotta say didnt work out so well. of course we're not talking about SA or LJ here...
 
:yes:

Micheal Clayton.  and thats all i got to say about that.
i'm not touching that kool-aid again. same for deuce,traded picks for him (last year) in a keeper league,gotta say didnt work out so well. of course we're not talking about SA or LJ here...
Why did you draft him last year at all? And why would the reasons he failed last year affect him this year?He missed the entire offseason, and had numerous injuries and reported character problems last year. His bust should have surprised no one.

But how does that affect him this year? Hes healthy and seems to be back on track personally. There are plenty of reasons not to like him(conservative offense, Galloway, Simms), but nothing related to the reasons he failed last year.

 
diesel, he was a rookie keeper for me going into last year. we turn keepers in relatively early so i was pretty much stuck w/ him. remember the topic is,burned by a player and how it affects your view of him..

 
i'm struggling with tomlinson. that piece of crap died on me in the playoffs. if he would have just stayed out and let turner play i would have won. dooshbag.

 
i'm struggling with tomlinson. that piece of crap died on me in the playoffs. if he would have just stayed out and let turner play i would have won. dooshbag.
:lol: i'm actually the opposite for some reason. i tend to stick with guys i liked the year before even if they disappoint. i think it's because i usually favor talent over opportunity, and my opinion on talent tends to change less from year to year. Sometimes it helps, e.g. Santan Moss of 2004 and 2005. I liked him both years. Sometimes it doesn't.

 
I think that I have some memory loss, because I don't enter the draft season with any "thou shall not be on my team" lists.

I normally stick to RBs early and really had some heartburn with Javon Walker's injury last season, but with his vast decrease in ADP, I could see him getting on my team again.

I think that your team is best served by forgetting the past, unless its reasonable to assume that the situation remains the same and you misinterpreted it before.

 
This is definitely a legitimate phenomenon. The vast majority of FF players operate on a "what have you done for me lately?" system. How many people were dissing Thomas Jones a few years back? How many people are ripping on Ron Dayne right now? How many people have completely written off William Green? Charles Rogers? Reggie Williams? Mike Williams?

I think one of the best strategies in dynasty and redraft is to target talented players coming off a disappointing season or two. Laveranues Coles is a pretty good example of a player who is being overlooked because he's been quiet lately. Kevin Jones, Lee Evans, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eddie Kennison are a few other guys whose talent level seems to exceed their respective hype.

On the flipside, you might want to avoid players coming off seemingly-flukish seasons. Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Shaun Alexander, and Chris Chambers immediately come to mind.

 
This is definitely a legitimate phenomenon. The vast majority of FF players operate on a "what have you done for me lately?" system. How many people were dissing Thomas Jones a few years back? How many people are ripping on Ron Dayne right now? How many people have completely written off William Green? Charles Rogers? Reggie Williams? Mike Williams?

I think one of the best strategies in dynasty and redraft is to target talented players coming off a disappointing season or two. Laveranues Coles is a pretty good example of a player who is being overlooked because he's been quiet lately. Kevin Jones, Lee Evans, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eddie Kennison are a few other guys whose talent level seems to exceed their respective hype.

On the flipside, you might want to avoid players coming off seemingly-flukish seasons. Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Shaun Alexander, and Chris Chambers immediately come to mind.
I don't think you can lump Shaun Alexander in with Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn or Chris Chambers. Otherwise you better put Peyton Manning in that list too.
 
This is definitely a legitimate phenomenon. The vast majority of FF players operate on a "what have you done for me lately?" system. How many people were dissing Thomas Jones a few years back? How many people are ripping on Ron Dayne right now? How many people have completely written off William Green? Charles Rogers? Reggie Williams? Mike Williams?

I think one of the best strategies in dynasty and redraft is to target talented players coming off a disappointing season or two. Laveranues Coles is a pretty good example of a player who is being overlooked because he's been quiet lately. Kevin Jones, Lee Evans, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eddie Kennison are a few other guys whose talent level seems to exceed their respective hype.

On the flipside, you might want to avoid players coming off seemingly-flukish seasons. Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Shaun Alexander, and Chris Chambers immediately come to mind.
I don't think you can lump Shaun Alexander in with Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn or Chris Chambers. Otherwise you better put Peyton Manning in that list too.
Peyton Manning isn't overrated right now, but he was last year. A lot of people were taking him in the top ten. That's not happening this year. Why? Because he didn't live up to his ADP last season (when he was overrated after a fluke year). As for Alexander, which of these is not like the others?

16

18

16

20

28

Those are his season TD totals since 2001. Last year was 8 TDs above his previous career high and 10.5 over his previous career average (as a starter). Factor in the loss of Hutchinson and I think it's highly likely that his numbers dip well below his 2005 totals.

He still might be worth a top 3 pick, but he's at a peak, whereas other backs are at a valley.

 
It doesn't affect me. I got burned by Drew Bennett last season, but think he's in line for a bounceback year.

 
I have a tendency to have players blow up the year AFTER I draft them (when someone else has them).

I fully expect Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Julius Jones and Willis McGahee to all have career years this season. Get em while you can!

 
I have one of those guys every year! It's not like, ok chris you guessed wrong. It's more like why didn't that freakin moron do what he was supposed to! I still don't know what makes Rod Smith, well Rod Smith, but I won't draft him. I have never had any luck whatsoever with any reciever with the first name of Willie. I got a list of about 20 guys I just wish would trade freakin teams, because I, unlike their coach realize their potential. Afterall I am the smartest fantasy football mind on the planet.

Note when I pay for a subscription I reserve the right for toal sarcasim and egotistical outbursts. If they had a level 2 subscription, I would pay twice as much for everyone to tell me I'm right :banned:

 
I will never draft a new orlean saint again! Two years in a row Deuce screwed me.

Yes, I know that Bush is a saint, but he will not be a Rounder!

 
As for Alexander, which of these is not like the others?

16

18

16

20

28

Those are his season TD totals since 2001. Last year was 8 TDs above his previous career high and 10.5 over his previous career average (as a starter). Factor in the loss of Hutchinson and I think it's highly likely that his numbers dip well below his 2005 totals.

He still might be worth a top 3 pick, but he's at a peak, whereas other backs are at a valley.
He might be worth a Top 3 pick? I'd say a guy who has never scored fewer than 16 TDs in the last five seasons is a slam-dunk Top 3 pick -- especially this year when the talent at RB is so weak in my opinion. If I get a Top 3 pick in my draft this year and Alexander's on the board I'll take him without hesitation and even if he finishes with 12 TDs fewer than last season chances are my team is going to be in terrific shape because of him.Back on topic, I think it's only human nature to be wary of players who burned us the year before. I had Kevin Jones, McAllister, Horn and DJax last season and was burned royally by all of them. Of that group, I'm not going to shy away from Jones if I can get him as my RB2 because I believe he's a good candidate to bounce back. I want no part of McAllister unless he's my RB3 due to the fact he's coming off a knee injury and the presence of Reggie Bush; I'd take Horn as my WR3 but will keep my expectations minimal; I'd really like DJax as a bounceback candidate but his ongoing knee situation is leading me to steer clear of him unless the value is right.

That last sentence pretty much sums things up for my approach with these types of players. If the value's right, I won't back off someone who burned me the year before. Consider three years ago I had Curtis Martin as my RB2 and he was putrid. The next year, he dropped in value and I was able to snag him as my RB3 in the fifth round. He went on to lead the league in rushing. So even though he burned me the year before I didn't back away from him when the value was right.

I would add a caveat here for any player who may burn an owner in multiple seasons. I've never had that happen but I could see someone getting burned by Player X in two or more seasons and vowing never to draft him again, regardless of value. Should I get Kevin Jones again this year and he continues to be a gigantic slug, it's entirely possible I won't even consider him ever again. I wouldn't automatically rule that out.

 
I have a hard time drafting Aaron Brooks after what he put me through a couple of years ago.
I'd have a hard time drafting Brooks because I don't think he's a very good QB.
I will likely consider Brooks fairly late since he is in an ideal situation to bounce back AND there are tons of folks you have crossed him off their lists.
 

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