Bush...in a redraft league... (1 Viewer)

[Kafka]

Assuming he goes to HOU (maybe NYJ),where would you take him in a PPR league? Would you acquire him as you're #2 RB in a 10-12 tm. league, presumably over a top 5 WR?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I've never once taken a rookie RB as my #2 and I don't foresee doing so this year either.

ETA: Definitely not over a WR I had ranked in in my first tier.

 

[bagger.]

late 4th round at best.

 

[bagger.]

I've never once taken a rookie RB as my #2 and I don't foresee doing so this year either.

which is sound strategy. typically too much risk for the hype/ADP the top rookie backs go for.

 

[Kafka]

I've never once taken a rookie RB as my #2 and I don't foresee doing so this year either.

which is sound strategy. typically too much risk for the hype/ADP the top rookie backs go for.

Agreed. However, with all the hype surrounding his pro-day workout, I think he will be way over-valued, hence resulting in him being way over-drafted, even in redraft leagues. Pounce on the spoils...

 

[jurb26]

late 4th round at best.

You wont be drafting Bush in any leagues this year. I bet his ADP will be in the mid 3rd.

 

[Chaos Commish]

late 4th round at best.

You wont be drafting Bush in any leagues this year. I bet his ADP will be in the mid 3rd.

Late July, early August it could be early to mid 4th. Then it will climb quickly after some reports leak out of camp. By the weekend before the opener late second will not be unusual, mid third his ADP.

 

[bagger.]

late 4th round at best.

You wont be drafting Bush in any leagues this year. I bet his ADP will be in the mid 3rd.

probably true.

 

[jurb26]

late 4th round at best.

You wont be drafting Bush in any leagues this year. I bet his ADP will be in the mid 3rd.

probably true.

So then, the real question now becomes who are the people who are WILLING to pay that price for him? I think I would be one of them, but then again it would depend on what kind of draft I had going on already and some other factors.

 

[Couch Potato]

late 4th round at best.

You wont be drafting Bush in any leagues this year. I bet his ADP will be in the mid 3rd.

probably true.

There's always someone who wants the shiny new toy, with all the press there's been about him. It won't be me, but I think his ADP might even go into the 2nd round in redrafts.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

late 4th round at best.

You wont be drafting Bush in any leagues this year. I bet his ADP will be in the mid 3rd.

probably true.

So then, the real question now becomes who are the people who are WILLING to pay that price for him? I think I would be one of them, but then again it would depend on what kind of draft I had going on already and some other factors.

FWIW, I took him as RB26 in the 16 team PDSL survivor league. I was choosing from the other rookies, Ahman Green, Tatum Bell and Chris Brown. Hoping it was a good choice. But situations and league types will dictate whether his ADP is overvalued.

 

[bagger.]

late 4th round at best.

You wont be drafting Bush in any leagues this year. I bet his ADP will be in the mid 3rd.

probably true.

So then, the real question now becomes who are the people who are WILLING to pay that price for him? I think I would be one of them, but then again it would depend on what kind of draft I had going on already and some other factors.

i am as big of a fan of bush in a dynasty league as they come.i just don't think the upside you get with him will pay off for you before the 4th round in a redraft.

best case scenario would be to duplicate faulk's rookie year of 1,282/11 and 522/1.

if that is your best case you expected projection would tell me he cannot be taken in the first 3 rounds. there are just too many good WRs in the 2nd/3rd that have less risk.

 

[Raider Nation]

I've never once taken a rookie RB as my #2 and I don't foresee doing so this year either.

I took Edge at 2.03 in a 12 team league as my RB1 when he was a rook. That worked out pretty well, though certainly he went to a much better offense than Bush will.

 

[jurb26]

late 4th round at best.

You wont be drafting Bush in any leagues this year. I bet his ADP will be in the mid 3rd.

probably true.

So then, the real question now becomes who are the people who are WILLING to pay that price for him? I think I would be one of them, but then again it would depend on what kind of draft I had going on already and some other factors.

i am as big of a fan of bush in a dynasty league as they come.i just don't think the upside you get with him will pay off for you before the 4th round in a redraft.

best case scenario would be to duplicate faulk's rookie year of 1,282/11 and 522/1.

if that is your best case you expected projection would tell me he cannot be taken in the first 3 rounds. there are just too many good WRs in the 2nd/3rd that have less risk.

I dont think that Faulk was drafted into nearly as good of a Fantasy role as what GBush looks to be in Hous. Look at the number that DD has been able to put up there. Then look at the skill sets of Bush vs DD. I think the only thing holding him back could be a split in the touches. Well, that and making it in the NFL like we all think he will.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I've never once taken a rookie RB as my #2 and I don't foresee doing so this year either.

I took Edge at 2.03 in a 12 team league as my RB1 when he was a rook. That worked out pretty well, though certainly he went to a much better offense than Bush will.

There's always at least 1 rook that turns out to be worth a borderline #2, maybe even a #1, but IMO, it's a -EV play.Maybe he'll put up Dickerson numbers his rookie year.

 

[Kafka]

I see the rookie #1 as being Deangelo;situation dictating projection. just see him in an overall better environ than Reggie, considering their projected destinations.

 

[Raider Nation]

I've never once taken a rookie RB as my #2 and I don't foresee doing so this year either.

I took Edge at 2.03 in a 12 team league as my RB1 when he was a rook. That worked out pretty well, though certainly he went to a much better offense than Bush will.

There's always at least 1 rook that turns out to be worth a borderline #2, maybe even a #1, but IMO, it's a -EV play.Maybe he'll put up Dickerson numbers his rookie year.

Not if Davis is still wearing a Texans uniform.

 

[(HULK)]

What if its a redraft with 1 keeper?

Do you take him early to ensure that you can have him for years to come?

 

[bagger.]

I dont think that Faulk was drafted into nearly as good of a Fantasy role as what GBush looks to be in Hous. Look at the number that DD has been able to put up there. Then look at the skill sets of Bush vs DD. I think the only thing holding him back could be a split in the touches. Well, that and making it in the NFL like we all think he will.

The only thing holding him back is not getting touches?

That's a pretty big thing holding him back to take him in the 3rd round don't you think?

 

[GregR_2]

I dont think that Faulk was drafted into nearly as good of a Fantasy role as what GBush looks to be in Hous. Look at the number that DD has been able to put up there. Then look at the skill sets of Bush vs DD. I think the only thing holding him back could be a split in the touches. Well, that and making it in the NFL like we all think he will.

The only thing holding him back is not getting touches?

That's a pretty big thing holding him back to take him in the 3rd round don't you think?

Bell had the same issue last year and he was a third rounder in many leagues. Dunn had the same issues and was often a 4th rounder who was probably underrated and should have been in at least the 3rd.It will really all depend on what the outlook is for carry distribution at the time an individual draft is held.

 

[bagger.]

I dont think that Faulk was drafted into nearly as good of a Fantasy role as what GBush looks to be in Hous.  Look at the number that DD has been able to put up there.  Then look at the skill sets of Bush vs DD.  I think the only thing holding him back could be a split in the touches.  Well, that and making it in the NFL like we all think he will.

The only thing holding him back is not getting touches?

That's a pretty big thing holding him back to take him in the 3rd round don't you think?

Bell had the same issue last year and he was a third rounder in many leagues. Dunn had the same issues and was often a 4th rounder who was probably underrated and should have been in at least the 3rd.It will really all depend on what the outlook is for carry distribution at the time an individual draft is held.

Well that gets to the heart of my point.Just because a lot of leagues take someone that early does not make it the correct move.

Dunn has proven to be a solid value play in the 4th round time and time again. No risk there in terms of carries...you know what you are going to get.