Bush owners, will you sleep okay tonight? (1 Viewer)

[stbugs]

Considering that this was likely Bush's worst game of the year and he still netted me 6 pts, I slept just fine.

Reggie Bush had a whole lot of "worst games of the year" last year, so I would be worried. Half his games were stinkers in 2006. And in '07 he's 0/1.

In PPR leagues, he didn't have as many stinkers as you think. Not sure how people can bash 2006, when as a rookie Bush was the #9 RB. Heck, he bested Addai by 37 points in 2006. I would rather have Addai in 2007 just because of the lack of Rhodes, but in PPR leagues Bush was easily the #1 rookie RB (actually the #1 offensive rookie, period).In non-PPR leagues Bush was still #17 overall, but I would agree whole-heartedly that he should never have been a 1st rounder and probably shouldn't be until he is the only RB in NO.

 

[GDogg]

Considering that this was likely Bush's worst game of the year and he still netted me 6 pts, I slept just fine.

Reggie Bush had a whole lot of "worst games of the year" last year, so I would be worried. Half his games were stinkers in 2006. And in '07 he's 0/1.

In PPR leagues, he didn't have as many stinkers as you think. Not sure how people can bash 2006, when as a rookie Bush was the #9 RB. Heck, he bested Addai by 37 points in 2006. I would rather have Addai in 2007 just because of the lack of Rhodes, but in PPR leagues Bush was easily the #1 rookie RB (actually the #1 offensive rookie, period).In non-PPR leagues Bush was still #17 overall, but I would agree whole-heartedly that he should never have been a 1st rounder and probably shouldn't be until he is the only RB in NO.

I don't think my league's scoring is all that unique, but it's PPR and Bush was #2 to Maurice Drew.

 

[Ghost Rider]

It's a little odd that some are saying they need to use Deuce more and Bush less when they had almost the same statistics rushing the ball (and Deuce's long was 12 while Bush's was 9). The OL really hurt both of them last night. They both did about as well as they could have running the ball.

Bush got garbage yards late in the game against a prevent defense. Before that, he had done nada in the running game.

 

[Ghost Rider]

in PPR leagues Bush was easily the #1 rookie RB (actually the #1 offensive rookie, period).

No, he wasn't. Jones-Drew was.

 

[stbugs]

in PPR leagues Bush was easily the #1 rookie RB (actually the #1 offensive rookie, period).

No, he wasn't. Jones-Drew was.

Not sure how I missed him. Yes MJD had 274 to Bush's 266. Pretty close indeed, but MJD was #1. Oh well, still trying to show how in PPR leagues Bush's value is completely different as is a guy like Westbrook.

 

[John Mamula]

i am praying that a decent back has a solid game this week and i will make a move to trade for bush.

 

[Marc Levin]

R. Bush 12/38/0

D. McAllister 10/38/0

R. Bush 4/7/0

D. McAllister 2/7/0

It was a bad game for the entire NO offense here. But Reggie was a 1st round pick and Deuce a 4th round pick because of significantly more than one game ?

Do I win a prize or something for filling in the blank?

 

[Marc Levin]

He's going to be the antithesis of Rudi Johnson. Whereas a guy like Rudi is fairly consistent week to week, he's not going to give you many spectacular efforts. He'll stay within a smaller percentage of his average most weeks.Bush on the other hand is going to be a feast or famine type of player largely because he relies on this receiving totals to bolster his numbers so much. if the passing game is clicking, he'll be able to produce.That said, they'll probably wind up with the approximately the same amount of points but do it in completely different ways.

This is kind of true and false. Depends upon which league you are in. I drafted Bush in the 1st round in one PPR league, but take that with a grain of salt as I kept 8 players myself so a lot of good players (S. Jackson, Parker, Addai, etc.) were unavailable. I wouldn't have taken him anywhere near there in a non-PPR league.In PPR leagues, Rudi's best year was 2005 with 250 points. Last year in his rookie year, splitting time with McAllister, Bush had 266 points. You can say Rudi is consistent, but in Bush's worst 10 games last year (under 10 points in FBGs scoring), he had 49 receptions. Well in PPR, that is almost an extra TD per game for Bush. That makes him pretty darn consistent in PPR leagues. Sure he had that one SF game, but Rudi also had 2 great games which were about double his average. RBs will usually have 1 or 2 outstanding games. It happens.

True, I was viewing it from a non-PPR perspective.

Understand. That is why some of these discussions are silly. Look at kensat30's post above. In PPR leagues last year Bush had 266 points (#9) in his first year to McAllister's 216 points (#15).

And was significantly better in the second half of the year than the first. The concept in choosing him high in PPR leagues in '07 was that he'd continue that progression this year - and he might. He had quite a few poor running days in the second half of '06, yet was still a major fantasty player for a lot of teams down the stretch.

 

[Grahamburn]

As a Bush owner, I am probably most concerned about the fact that the O-Line got completely manhandled. They were getting pushed backwards on run blocking and blown by on pass blocking. Bush obviously tried to do too much with the ball last night, but I'm sure he will make adjustments and be closer to the RB many people expected coming into the season.

If the situation were reversed on the Colts end, would people be jumping ship on Addai, Wayne, and even Manning?? It's not time to pull the alarm yet, but if by the bye week not much has changed, that's when I'd start to get concerned.

It's a little odd that some are saying they need to use Deuce more and Bush less when they had almost the same statistics rushing the ball (and Deuce's long was 12 while Bush's was 9). The OL really hurt both of them last night. They both did about as well as they could have running the ball.However, Bush did some things that were not good last night. He caught a pass in the flat and all he needed to do was accelerate for the 1st down. Instead, he accelerated, then slowed and started dancing before getting tackled to bring up a 3rd and 1. He also dropped two passes.

On a positive note, the Saints gave Bush the ball three times on 3rd and 1 (although one of them was of Bush's own doing), and he converted on each of them.

It's also worth noting that Payton appears to be trying to get Bush the ball as much as possible, and Bush was on the field more this year than last year.

I've got Bush in a PPR league, and I'm not terribly worried, although I will be if Brees keeps playing this poorly and the O-line doesn't start to run block better.

It's hard for any runningback to have a solid game statistically when the offense is unable to move the ball consistently. When Drew Brees starts to hit the short/intermediate routes the Colts were giving him last night, the offense as a whole will produce. Those completions have to be made to beat the Cover 2 defense. The Saints were not converting those plays. It's obvious that the Saints offense can really only flow if the quarterback plays well, as is true with most offenses.

It will be interesting to see how they respond against the same defensive scheme this week in Tampa. As a Buccaneer I can tell you that the Tampa D-Line is pretty poor. The starters will likely be Gaines Adams, Chris Hovan, Javon Haye, and Greg Spires. New Orleans can probably run on these guys.

I'm sure the game plan was to pound the Colts with the running game and convert on 3rd and short, but that is a difficult game plan to implement when you're not converting those third downs because of passes that aren't precise and you're facing a Colts offense that is scoring at will. The Saints then had to start forcing the pass and abandon the running game.

Reggie Bush was firmly implanted in the game plan last night in the first half. That's a positive I took after watching the game. Had the game been closer, we may have seen him get into a rhythm running and receiving. He was getting carries and was being targeted in the passing game. He dropped a couple balls, Brees was pressured on a few more resulting in poor passes/batted balls, and he showed poor vision on some of his runs. Do we think this will be the case all year? I don't. I'm guessing this will probably be his poorest statistical game all season. I doubt the Saints play another team that will blow them off the field like the Colts did last night.

 

[GDogg]

It's a little odd that some are saying they need to use Deuce more and Bush less when they had almost the same statistics rushing the ball (and Deuce's long was 12 while Bush's was 9). The OL really hurt both of them last night. They both did about as well as they could have running the ball.

Bush got garbage yards late in the game against a prevent defense. Before that, he had done nada in the running game.

That's not true. Bush got most of his rushing yards in the first half. Bush had 6 rushes for 21 yards in the first half.In the 4th Quarter, Bush ran 3 times for 10 yards. He ran 3 times for 8 yards in the 3rd Quarter.Where are all of these "garbage yards late in the game against a prevent defense" you are talking about?

 

[Ayok]

Bush looked less than 100% last night. But I don't think he is in any way hurt or why would he have been in there during garbage time. Of course, over 1/2 of his "production" happened then... if you want to call last night production at all.

Perhaps of more concern was how awful brees looked. Just the whole offense was an outright disaster... has to make anyone with a large investment in NO (Brees, Colston, Bush) nervous.

 

[Ayok]

It's a little odd that some are saying they need to use Deuce more and Bush less when they had almost the same statistics rushing the ball (and Deuce's long was 12 while Bush's was 9). The OL really hurt both of them last night. They both did about as well as they could have running the ball.

Bush got garbage yards late in the game against a prevent defense. Before that, he had done nada in the running game.

That's not true. Bush got most of his rushing yards in the first half. Bush had 6 rushes for 21 yards in the first half.In the 4th Quarter, Bush ran 3 times for 10 yards. He ran 3 times for 8 yards in the 3rd Quarter.Where are all of these "garbage yards late in the game against a prevent defense" you are talking about?

I had the impression he had a good deal of his yards (few that there were) in the last two minutes of the game.

 

[GDogg]

It's a little odd that some are saying they need to use Deuce more and Bush less when they had almost the same statistics rushing the ball (and Deuce's long was 12 while Bush's was 9). The OL really hurt both of them last night. They both did about as well as they could have running the ball.

Bush got garbage yards late in the game against a prevent defense. Before that, he had done nada in the running game.

That's not true. Bush got most of his rushing yards in the first half. Bush had 6 rushes for 21 yards in the first half.In the 4th Quarter, Bush ran 3 times for 10 yards. He ran 3 times for 8 yards in the 3rd Quarter.Where are all of these "garbage yards late in the game against a prevent defense" you are talking about?

I had the impression he had a good deal of his yards (few that there were) in the last two minutes of the game.

We were discussing rushing yards, but here are his totals in the final quarter:2 receptions for 9 yards.3 rushes for 10 yards.Bush didn't play the final series. Aaron Stecker did and got 17 (of his 41) total yards in the final minute of the game.

 

[JaxJokers]

Actually, using my league scoring(PPR), Bush scored 8.6 pts. last night, which is equivalent to 86 yds rushing. Not to say that I'm pleased, but I'm not ready to run for the hills just yet.

 

[NoFBinLA]

at what point do people stop saying stuff like 'omg it's only the preseason/week 1 you people overreact'?

I'd say if Bush's next two or three games were this bad, for sure. But one game against the super bowl champs isn't always indicative of his ability.Worry? Sure. He looked flat out bad last night.Write him off? I just can't do that after one game.

 

[John Mamula]

Actually, using my league scoring(PPR), Bush scored 8.6 pts. last night, which is equivalent to 86 yds rushing. Not to say that I'm pleased, but I'm not ready to run for the hills just yet.

exactly. it's not great, but bush even having a terrible game in PPR gives you almost 10 points.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Actually, using my league scoring(PPR), Bush scored 8.6 pts. last night, which is equivalent to 86 yds rushing. Not to say that I'm pleased, but I'm not ready to run for the hills just yet.

exactly. it's not great, but bush even having a terrible game in PPR gives you almost 10 points.

Which is why everyone in PPR leagues needs to go find a panicking owner.

 

[mdog1967]

Considering that this was likely Bush's worst game of the year and he still netted me 6 pts, I slept just fine.

Overated, over hyped and I think he will have a few games like this during the coming season. I've been calling him Reggie Bust from the first day. In my mind he is just a bigger version of Ted Ginn.

 

[John Mamula]

Actually, using my league scoring(PPR), Bush scored 8.6 pts. last night, which is equivalent to 86 yds rushing. Not to say that I'm pleased, but I'm not ready to run for the hills just yet.

exactly. it's not great, but bush even having a terrible game in PPR gives you almost 10 points.

Which is why everyone in PPR leagues needs to go find a panicking owner.

i am waiting to see what the rest of my team does this week, and if a guy overproduces this week i will try to package something up.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I've been calling him Reggie Bust from the first day.

If it's phonetic, it MUST be true!!!!1

 

[John Mamula]

Considering that this was likely Bush's worst game of the year and he still netted me 6 pts, I slept just fine.

Overated, over hyped and I think he will have a few games like this during the coming season. I've been calling him Reggie Bust from the first day. In my mind he is just a bigger version of Ted Ginn.

he produced at a 1st-2nd round level last year in PPR leagues. people are acting like this is his rookie year. he already has proven his worth. some people refuse to see it. these are the same people i am sure that sleep on westbrook and tiki and dunn in the past.

 

[TwinTurbo]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total.

In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

 

[Marc Levin]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total. In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

Well supported and good use of stats - a 30 point fantasy advantage helps make up for the lack of rush yards - and probable loss of TDs - that other top-10 backs like LJ and Gore will get.

 

[stbugs]

Considering that this was likely Bush's worst game of the year and he still netted me 6 pts, I slept just fine.

Overated, over hyped and I think he will have a few games like this during the coming season. I've been calling him Reggie Bust from the first day. In my mind he is just a bigger version of Ted Ginn.

he produced at a 1st-2nd round level last year in PPR leagues. people are acting like this is his rookie year. he already has proven his worth. some people refuse to see it. these are the same people i am sure that sleep on westbrook and tiki and dunn in the past.

Aside from Dunn (had only 2 big reception years), those 3 are PPR guys, i.e. for some reason people who may or may not be in PPR leagues seem to think that Rudi Johnson/Edge/Whoever are better than 3 three are/were when they aren't in PPR leagues. Westbrook went through the same phase as did Tiki, although in 2006 Westbrook finally got under #10 in non-PPR scoring. In 2004 and 2005, if people didn't pay attention, they missed the fact that Westbrook was basically top 10 in PPR even though he missed 7 games. Tiki was the same from 2000-2003, he looked like he was RB2 if you look at normal rankings even though he was easily top 10 when you included @ 70 receptions each year in PPR.

 

[TwinTurbo]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total. In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

Well supported and good use of stats - a 30 point fantasy advantage helps make up for the lack of rush yards - and probable loss of TDs - that other top-10 backs like LJ and Gore will get.

And just to clarify, guys like LT, Gore and SJ will probably average more than 50 PPR too. But it's the other top 10 RB like a Rudi, Willie Parker, or LJ that Bush will have a 30 PPR advantage over. It's a sizeable margin. He just needs to slightly improve his low baseline rushing yardage from last year and get at least 8-9 TDs and he should finish top 10. Now in non-PPR, I wouldn't have touched him in the first 2 rounds. He's just not that valuable without the receptions.

 

[stbugs]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total. In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

Well supported and good use of stats - a 30 point fantasy advantage helps make up for the lack of rush yards - and probable loss of TDs - that other top-10 backs like LJ and Gore will get.

The funny thing is that while maybe statistically true, I think it may be a little misleading. Only 8 out of the top 40 (32 teams, plus a few RBBCs like NO) RBs had 50+ receptions. That includes Tiki who is gone now and Betts who may be a backup again. I think Bush has more than just a 5 TD lead on most folks. Only 7 of the top 20 RBs were within 46 receptions, which is almost 8 TDs advantage over folks not named LT, Gore, S. Jackson, Westbrook, Tiki, MJD and Betts. I think most people would expect LT, Gore, SJ, and Westbrook to definitely outscore him and Tiki and Betts (barring another Portis setback) will not. Maybe MJD will, but that basically gives Bush an almost 8 TD cushion over the rest of the field.

 

[Marc Levin]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total. In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

Well supported and good use of stats - a 30 point fantasy advantage helps make up for the lack of rush yards - and probable loss of TDs - that other top-10 backs like LJ and Gore will get.

And just to clarify, guys like LT, Gore and SJ will probably average more than 50 PPR too.Now in non-PPR, I wouldn't have touched him in the first 2 rounds. He's just not that valuable without the receptions.

Yes - I mentioned Gore b/c he will probably have a TD advantage (LJ will have a rush yardage and TD advantage). Actually, based on last night, Gore will probably have the total yardage advantage, too

 

[stbugs]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total.

In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

Well supported and good use of stats - a 30 point fantasy advantage helps make up for the lack of rush yards - and probable loss of TDs - that other top-10 backs like LJ and Gore will get.

And just to clarify, guys like LT, Gore and SJ will probably average more than 50 PPR too. But it's the other top 10 RB like a Rudi, Willie Parker, or LJ that Bush will have a 30 PPR advantage over. It's a sizeable margin. He just needs to slightly improve his low baseline rushing yardage from last year and get at least 8-9 TDs and he should finish top 10. Now in non-PPR, I wouldn't have touched him in the first 2 rounds. He's just not that valuable without the receptions.

But Bush last year had an average of 56 receptions more than the 3 guys you listed. That is a 9 TD difference. As I mentioned above some of the top, top RBs skewed the average reception amount.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Actually, based on last night, Gore will probably have the total yardage advantage, too

Wait...huh?

 

[Marc Levin]

Actually, based on last night, Gore will probably have the total yardage advantage, too

Wait...huh?

It's a poorly written joke

 

[Shiver44]

I hope people realize that Bush is who he is. He is not going to magically become a Barry Sanders-like runner. He averages 3.5 YPC and has never notched a 20+ yard run. For someone with his speed to never have an explosive run means that his vision is lousy. Vision is usually something that NFL Running Backs have the natural instincts as soon as they enter the league. For someone who has as much hype as he has, color me unimpressed.

 

[TwinTurbo]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total.

In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

Well supported and good use of stats - a 30 point fantasy advantage helps make up for the lack of rush yards - and probable loss of TDs - that other top-10 backs like LJ and Gore will get.

And just to clarify, guys like LT, Gore and SJ will probably average more than 50 PPR too. But it's the other top 10 RB like a Rudi, Willie Parker, or LJ that Bush will have a 30 PPR advantage over. It's a sizeable margin. He just needs to slightly improve his low baseline rushing yardage from last year and get at least 8-9 TDs and he should finish top 10. Now in non-PPR, I wouldn't have touched him in the first 2 rounds. He's just not that valuable without the receptions.

But Bush last year had an average of 56 receptions more than the 3 guys you listed. That is a 9 TD difference. As I mentioned above some of the top, top RBs skewed the average reception amount.

Yes I was just being conservative and comparing on average against all the top 10 RB combined. But you are right, if you remove the elite PPR guys like LT, Westbrook and SJ, then the numbers look even better for Bush. I just didn't want to come across as a Bush slappie. Realistically, this guy has a very strong advantage in PPR over the average RB. I still don't think he can finish top 5, but I would be shocked if he didn't finish top 10.

 

[stbugs]

I hope people realize that Bush is who he is. He is not going to magically become a Barry Sanders-like runner. He averages 3.5 YPC and has never notched a 20+ yard run. For someone with his speed to never have an explosive run means that his vision is lousy. Vision is usually something that NFL Running Backs have the natural instincts as soon as they enter the league. For someone who has as much hype as he has, color me unimpressed.

You know, there was this rookie in 2001, had 3.6 ypc and I knew he would not amount to much either. He reminded me of another rookie in 1995 that had 3.9 ypc. I am glad I avoided them later.I don't know how much Bush will improve, but he has 167 career carries in the NFL. Tiki Barber averaged 3.8 ypc his rookie year and 3.2 ypc in his second. Did you throw in the towel on him? It wouldn't surprise me if you had. You may end up being correct, but when the consensus was that he was the best player in the 2006 draft, I tend to believe the NFL folks over you. Sorry, but its true. Sure, there are plenty of 1st round RB busts, but I will give Bush a little more time before throwing in the towel because of one bad game, especially when he was a top 10 RB in my leagues' scoring.

 

[SteveInChicago]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total.

In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

Well supported and good use of stats - a 30 point fantasy advantage helps make up for the lack of rush yards - and probable loss of TDs - that other top-10 backs like LJ and Gore will get.

And just to clarify, guys like LT, Gore and SJ will probably average more than 50 PPR too. But it's the other top 10 RB like a Rudi, Willie Parker, or LJ that Bush will have a 30 PPR advantage over. It's a sizeable margin. He just needs to slightly improve his low baseline rushing yardage from last year and get at least 8-9 TDs and he should finish top 10. Now in non-PPR, I wouldn't have touched him in the first 2 rounds. He's just not that valuable without the receptions.

But Bush last year had an average of 56 receptions more than the 3 guys you listed. That is a 9 TD difference. As I mentioned above some of the top, top RBs skewed the average reception amount.

Yes I was just being conservative and comparing on average against all the top 10 RB combined. But you are right, if you remove the elite PPR guys like LT, Westbrook and SJ, then the numbers look even better for Bush. I just didn't want to come across as a Bush slappie. Realistically, this guy has a very strong advantage in PPR over the average RB. I still don't think he can finish top 5, but I would be shocked if he didn't finish top 10.

I have the #4 pick in a PPR redraft league tonight... I think based on a weighted average of the FBG's projections and my league rules Bush is the #3 back on the list. What are the chances that I can get someone else like Addai/Gore/FWP/Westbrook in the 1st round and then get Bush with the 21st pick?

I am salivating at the thought... hmm...

 

[stbugs]

As others are saying, Bush still looks OK in PPR scoring. On the bright side Bush should still get around 5 receptions a game which would be 80+ total.

In 2006, the top 10 RB's (using PPR scoring and not including Bush) averaged just over 50 receptions each. In 2005, that number was around 42 each. So Bush should have a 30+ PPR advantage on average against other top 10 RB's. That's equivalent to 5 TD's. Yes he got off to a bad start, but if he can just improve his baseline yardage totals a bit from last year, then he should finish in the top 10 easily in PPR scoring. The only way for him to finish top 5 would be if he can bump his yardarge and TD totals from last year by 20%+ and get 80+ receptions. And I'm not sure that will happen.

Well supported and good use of stats - a 30 point fantasy advantage helps make up for the lack of rush yards - and probable loss of TDs - that other top-10 backs like LJ and Gore will get.

And just to clarify, guys like LT, Gore and SJ will probably average more than 50 PPR too. But it's the other top 10 RB like a Rudi, Willie Parker, or LJ that Bush will have a 30 PPR advantage over. It's a sizeable margin. He just needs to slightly improve his low baseline rushing yardage from last year and get at least 8-9 TDs and he should finish top 10. Now in non-PPR, I wouldn't have touched him in the first 2 rounds. He's just not that valuable without the receptions.

But Bush last year had an average of 56 receptions more than the 3 guys you listed. That is a 9 TD difference. As I mentioned above some of the top, top RBs skewed the average reception amount.

Yes I was just being conservative and comparing on average against all the top 10 RB combined. But you are right, if you remove the elite PPR guys like LT, Westbrook and SJ, then the numbers look even better for Bush. I just didn't want to come across as a Bush slappie. Realistically, this guy has a very strong advantage in PPR over the average RB. I still don't think he can finish top 5, but I would be shocked if he didn't finish top 10.

I agree, outside of the elite guys, it will almost be hard for Bush to not be top 10 in PPR if he gets similar touches to last night (11 rushes, 5 receptions, about what he had last year).

 

[Shiver44]

You know, there was this rookie in 2001, had 3.6 ypc and I knew he would not amount to much either.

He (LaDainian Tomlinson) was playing on the worst team in the NFL as the only viable weapon on the team. Bush was playing on the top offense in the league with plenty of weapons diverting attention away from him. Bush should be thankful Houston didn't take him because I think he wouldn't have even done as well as he did last year, averaging 3.6 YPC at that. There is no comparison between the situations in New Orleans now and what Tomlinson had to play in back in '01.

He reminded me of another rookie in 1995 that had 3.9 ypc. I am glad I avoided them later.

I don't know who are you talking about If you meant Marshall Faulk he averaged 4.1 YPC and made the pro-bowl as a rookie on the sad sap Colts' team.

I don't know how much Bush will improve, but he has 167 career carries in the NFL. Tiki Barber averaged 3.8 ypc his rookie year and 3.2 ypc in his second. Did you throw in the towel on him? It wouldn't surprise me if you had. You may end up being correct, but when the consensus was that he was the best player in the 2006 draft, I tend to believe the NFL folks over you. Sorry, but its true. Sure, there are plenty of 1st round RB busts, but I will give Bush a little more time before throwing in the towel because of one bad game, especially when he was a top 10 RB in my leagues' scoring.

I'm not saying he is a bust. He is just overrated. He may be good in a PPR league, just don't expect him to be the Gale Sayers/Marshall Faulk that everyone hyped him up to be. He was outran by Jerious Norwood, Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, among fellow rookies. He is basically the Michael Vick of the RB position, sucks as a runner, makes up for it as a receiver.

 

[John Mamula]

I hope people realize that Bush is who he is. He is not going to magically become a Barry Sanders-like runner. He averages 3.5 YPC and has never notched a 20+ yard run. For someone with his speed to never have an explosive run means that his vision is lousy. Vision is usually something that NFL Running Backs have the natural instincts as soon as they enter the league. For someone who has as much hype as he has, color me unimpressed.

you're going to make that conclusion off 160+- carries? really?how is it hype if he was a top 10 RB in PPR leagues?

 

[kensat30]

Considering that this was likely Bush's worst game of the year and he still netted me 6 pts, I slept just fine.

Overated, over hyped and I think he will have a few games like this during the coming season. I've been calling him Reggie Bust from the first day. In my mind he is just a bigger version of Ted Ginn.

he produced at a 1st-2nd round level last year in PPR leagues. people are acting like this is his rookie year. he already has proven his worth. some people refuse to see it. these are the same people i am sure that sleep on westbrook and tiki and dunn in the past.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't Bush a mid 1st pick in PPR leagues this year? From that position in the draft you need stud production every week. Consistent production. Last year, even in PPR league, Bush had some pretty damn bad weeks. Even crappy PPR RBs like Rudi can give you more consistency because at least you know they are going to be featured in the ground game week to week. Drafting the Bush early 1st in your draft this year was a mistake, in any league. This guy is not Westbrook or Tiki. He has not proven he is an NFL RB capable of handling 20 or even 15 carries a game. The guy is firmly in the middle of a RBBC and will be lucky to see half the carries there. You saw last night, an extremely underrated Deuce(or perhaps properly rated) put up damn near identical stats to Bush. You bet on Bush and you've taken a massive gamble on his receiving totals in any given game. Big big difference when you draft a guy in the late 2nd or 3rd last year as RB#2 puts up 10 versus your #5 overall pick RB#1 this year putting up 10.Should 8.6 points in week 1 been a surprise for anyone this year?Poor Bush games in standard PPR scoring in 2006:11.2910.16.15.77.58.32007:8.6

 

[John Mamula]

like i said, i had bush ranked 8-9 in PPR leagues and never took him once as there were always other options i liked better.

with that said, he can still have an opportunity to come close to producing in the 5-9 range regardless.

it's just too early to tell if he was a bust if you took him at 5 or 8, or if he is good value there.

i don't see the need for this knee jerk reactions in here, but some people are taking this opportunity to go out of their way with an "i told you so" stance which makes them look quite foolish after one week.

bush will put up some duds, but then again, who doesn't?

bush will have a 25 point game somewhere in this season, if you had it be this week, you'd get "bush should go #3" threads all over the place.

yes, we're all excited that football is here. but this is a long season. 1 week is 7% of the season for most leagues. there is still 93% left for bush to produce.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

A couple questions for the group:

1. How do you beat a speedy cover 2 defense?

2. Anybody remember what happened to the Patriots before they ripped off 23 victories in a row?

The Saints did not suddenly forget how to play football. They came out flat, and got out-coached and out-played.

Let's agree to wait until Week 4 until passing even preliminary judgements, mmmkay?

 

[hellz_fireflies]

I think Bush was better off being held by the Secret Service in the tunnel like Manning wanted to do.

 

[nygiants56]

The whole team is getting annihilated tonight. I'd give it a couple more games before hitting the panic button. In a dynasty league, you have to be prepared to ride out the cold streaks. Surely these guys won't be this bad all season.

with a guy like Bush on the roster, defenses surely studied film of the Saints in the offseason. is it me, or does it seem that defenders like taking hard shots when tackling Bush? I just noticed that even smaller guys like Leon Washington, don't get hit as hard as Bush does..just my obsevation.anyways, its too early to dump Saints players, but I'd be cautiously optimistic.3 games is a trend..tbey have two to play yet..for my $.02, he still looks like Eric Metcalf v 2.0

 

[bcr8f]

It's a little odd that some are saying they need to use Deuce more and Bush less when they had almost the same statistics rushing the ball (and Deuce's long was 12 while Bush's was 9). The OL really hurt both of them last night. They both did about as well as they could have running the ball.

Bush got garbage yards late in the game against a prevent defense. Before that, he had done nada in the running game.

That's not true. When you're making a point tell the truth or your credibility is lost.

 

[JaxJokers]

Considering that this was likely Bush's worst game of the year and he still netted me 6 pts, I slept just fine.

Overated, over hyped and I think he will have a few games like this during the coming season. I've been calling him Reggie Bust from the first day. In my mind he is just a bigger version of Ted Ginn.

he produced at a 1st-2nd round level last year in PPR leagues. people are acting like this is his rookie year. he already has proven his worth. some people refuse to see it. these are the same people i am sure that sleep on westbrook and tiki and dunn in the past.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't Bush a mid 1st pick in PPR leagues this year? From that position in the draft you need stud production every week. Consistent production. Last year, even in PPR league, Bush had some pretty damn bad weeks. Even crappy PPR RBs like Rudi can give you more consistency because at least you know they are going to be featured in the ground game week to week. Drafting the Bush early 1st in your draft this year was a mistake, in any league. This guy is not Westbrook or Tiki. He has not proven he is an NFL RB capable of handling 20 or even 15 carries a game. The guy is firmly in the middle of a RBBC and will be lucky to see half the carries there. You saw last night, an extremely underrated Deuce(or perhaps properly rated) put up damn near identical stats to Bush. You bet on Bush and you've taken a massive gamble on his receiving totals in any given game. Big big difference when you draft a guy in the late 2nd or 3rd last year as RB#2 puts up 10 versus your #5 overall pick RB#1 this year putting up 10.Should 8.6 points in week 1 been a surprise for anyone this year?Poor Bush games in standard PPR scoring in 2006:11.2910.16.15.77.58.32007:8.6

Rudi Johnson PPR scoring in 2006:7.75.213.413.48.46Willie Parker PPR scoring in 2006:5.62.75.79.6.9Frank Gore PPR scoring in 2006:11.47.912.711.8Most people I know took Bush around picks 5-9. Who should they have taken going off last year's #'s? Saying LT, SJax, Larry J. and Gore are gone.

 

[stbugs]

You know, there was this rookie in 2001, had 3.6 ypc and I knew he would not amount to much either.

He (LaDainian Tomlinson) was playing on the worst team in the NFL as the only viable weapon on the team. Bush was playing on the top offense in the league with plenty of weapons diverting attention away from him. Bush should be thankful Houston didn't take him because I think he wouldn't have even done as well as he did last year, averaging 3.6 YPC at that. There is no comparison between the situations in New Orleans now and what Tomlinson had to play in back in '01.

He reminded me of another rookie in 1995 that had 3.9 ypc. I am glad I avoided them later.

I don't know who are you talking about If you meant Marshall Faulk he averaged 4.1 YPC and made the pro-bowl as a rookie on the sad sap Colts' team.

I don't know how much Bush will improve, but he has 167 career carries in the NFL. Tiki Barber averaged 3.8 ypc his rookie year and 3.2 ypc in his second. Did you throw in the towel on him? It wouldn't surprise me if you had. You may end up being correct, but when the consensus was that he was the best player in the 2006 draft, I tend to believe the NFL folks over you. Sorry, but its true. Sure, there are plenty of 1st round RB busts, but I will give Bush a little more time before throwing in the towel because of one bad game, especially when he was a top 10 RB in my leagues' scoring.

I'm not saying he is a bust. He is just overrated. He may be good in a PPR league, just don't expect him to be the Gale Sayers/Marshall Faulk that everyone hyped him up to be. He was outran by Jerious Norwood, Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, among fellow rookies. He is basically the Michael Vick of the RB position, sucks as a runner, makes up for it as a receiver.

So LT was playing for one of the worst teams in the league, i.e. SD had the 1st pick in the draft. Well, geewhiz, what pick did New Orleans have in 2006? Oh yeah, it was the 2nd pick. You are right, Reggie Bush went to play for the 2nd worst team in the league and there is a huge difference between the 2nd worst and worst teams in the NFL. Its too bad that Bush probably had nothing to do with the Saints improving and going to the playoffs. It must have been all of the other offensive weapons that made Bush look good.

Listen, I will say that I don't know how good Bush will be, but saying that he is overhyped and he sucks as a runner, sure seems to go against what NFL folks think and is way premature.

You brought up Marshall Faulk. Well his first 3 seasons had ypc of 4.1, 3.7 and 3.0. Not exactly sizzling was it. Note that in Faulk's first "great" 3 seasons ypc-wise, the Colts weren't sad sack. They were 8-8, 9-7 and 9-7. Same reason why annointing Kevan Barlow as a stud was premature is the reason why announcing that Bush sucks as a runner is premature. Barlows first 3 years ypc were much better than Tiki's and Faulk's, but I don't think anyone would say Barlow was a better RB.

By the way, 1990 was Emmitt Smith's rookie year. I messed up the date. Pro-football reference only goes back to 1995 in game by game data and I just typed what I saw without realizing the mistake, especially since I rode Emmitt's great 1995 season to my first FF championship in my first year.

 

[bbarroninsc]

Let me preface this by stating that I am a Reggie Bush owner. I am in an auction league, PPR - below you will find my preseason ratings for RB's

1a) LT

1b) Jackson

3)Addai

4)Johnson

5)Gore

6)Bush

7)Westbrook

8)Parker

I had Bush/Westbrook in a virtual tie projections wise, but Bush gets the nod because of the small chance of a monster year.

I was obviously not thrilled with the performance last night. Bush looked timid, drop balls, and was out of sync for the entire game. However, fear not Bush owners there are many positives to take from the game

1. Bush had 12 carries to Deuces 10. Is 12 a big number? Obviously it isnt but it could show a willingness from the Saints to increase Bush's workload as compared to last year.

2. Bush was force fed the ball early in an attempt to get him into a rhythm

3. Bush was also the back of choice when the Saints were behind. Back of choice early when the game is close and back of choice late when behind is a great sign. He will get more touches than last year and one would think that his ypc at seasons end will be better than last year. Yes it was 3.2 last night when he was completely out of sync. Remember this was the years first game with a somewhat different philosophy at RB (more Bush less Deuce)

4. The Colts employed a deep zone last night that was very effective, and you can bet that the Saints will see this every week now. This means more screens, swings, and underneath routes. Hello Reggie Bush? You might ask if this helps Bush why was the performance so poor last night? Because they simply were not as ready for it as they should have been. With a week for Sean Payton to dissect this it will be a different story in the future. He will use Bush as a big weapon to attack this defensive scheme.

5. He still caught 4 balls (yes I know only for 7 yards) even though there were a couple of drops. The YPC last year was around 8, which it will probably be again this year- if not marginally better.

The bottom line is there is no denying the performance was poor. But keep in mind this was Week 1 and the Saints were obviously out of sync. Going into the game I looked more for how the Saints used Bush as opposed to actual production. Keep your heads up Bush owners, Reggie was already more involved and he will be more productive.

 

[icehouse]

You know, there was this rookie in 2001, had 3.6 ypc and I knew he would not amount to much either.

He (LaDainian Tomlinson) was playing on the worst team in the NFL as the only viable weapon on the team. Bush was playing on the top offense in the league with plenty of weapons diverting attention away from him. Bush should be thankful Houston didn't take him because I think he wouldn't have even done as well as he did last year, averaging 3.6 YPC at that. There is no comparison between the situations in New Orleans now and what Tomlinson had to play in back in '01.

He reminded me of another rookie in 1995 that had 3.9 ypc. I am glad I avoided them later.

I don't know who are you talking about If you meant Marshall Faulk he averaged 4.1 YPC and made the pro-bowl as a rookie on the sad sap Colts' team.

I don't know how much Bush will improve, but he has 167 career carries in the NFL. Tiki Barber averaged 3.8 ypc his rookie year and 3.2 ypc in his second. Did you throw in the towel on him? It wouldn't surprise me if you had. You may end up being correct, but when the consensus was that he was the best player in the 2006 draft, I tend to believe the NFL folks over you. Sorry, but its true. Sure, there are plenty of 1st round RB busts, but I will give Bush a little more time before throwing in the towel because of one bad game, especially when he was a top 10 RB in my leagues' scoring.

I'm not saying he is a bust. He is just overrated. He may be good in a PPR league, just don't expect him to be the Gale Sayers/Marshall Faulk that everyone hyped him up to be. He was outran by Jerious Norwood, Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, among fellow rookies. He is basically the Michael Vick of the RB position, sucks as a runner, makes up for it as a receiver.

So LT was playing for one of the worst teams in the league, i.e. SD had the 1st pick in the draft. Well, geewhiz, what pick did New Orleans have in 2006? Oh yeah, it was the 2nd pick. You are right, Reggie Bush went to play for the 2nd worst team in the league and there is a huge difference between the 2nd worst and worst teams in the NFL. Its too bad that Bush probably had nothing to do with the Saints improving and going to the playoffs. It must have been all of the other offensive weapons that made Bush look good.

Listen, I will say that I don't know how good Bush will be, but saying that he is overhyped and he sucks as a runner, sure seems to go against what NFL folks think and is way premature.

You brought up Marshall Faulk. Well his first 3 seasons had ypc of 4.1, 3.7 and 3.0. Not exactly sizzling was it. Note that in Faulk's first "great" 3 seasons ypc-wise, the Colts weren't sad sack. They were 8-8, 9-7 and 9-7. Same reason why annointing Kevan Barlow as a stud was premature is the reason why announcing that Bush sucks as a runner is premature. Barlows first 3 years ypc were much better than Tiki's and Faulk's, but I don't think anyone would say Barlow was a better RB.

By the way, 1990 was Emmitt Smith's rookie year. I messed up the date. Pro-football reference only goes back to 1995 in game by game data and I just typed what I saw without realizing the mistake, especially since I rode Emmitt's great 1995 season to my first FF championship in my first year.

Come on dude, the Saints were a perennial decent-to-playoff team before the Katrina season. They also added a MVP level QB to the team. The Saints had a bad season and improved the most important position on the field...they weren't the average scrub team.

 

[DerekZoolander]

Bush ran substantially better late last season. I'd expect him to at the very least up his rushing totals to around the 750-800 mark. You know he will catch the ball to the tune of 700-800+ yards. And late last year and in the playoffs, he proved that he is a TD maker. (In in his last 7 reg. season + postseason games.)

My question is: Even in a non-PPR, why is a Reggie Bush who will likely be getting 1400-1600 total yards and 10 TDs worse than Rudi Johnson rushing for 1300 and 10 and recieving for about 100? This, of course, you assume that #1: The Saints offense isn't going to be awful as it was last night and #2: That you think Bush has improved as he's gone on in the NFL, which he seems to.

What Bush did in the second half of 06' was top 15 worthy, and there's a god chance he improves even on that this season. Unless you think that, and not his first half numbers, were a fluke. But that has little to do with him being in a RBBC (which almost doesn't apply to him since he is always on the field).

One more thing: Sean Payton has a Reggie Bush FETISH. mcAllister should have pounded that small D last night, but instead Bush, even in a blowout, still ended up with about 16 touches. I would not worry about him being underused.

 

[howo5]

Well I have Bush and I'm ready to dump him. I can trade Deangelo Williams and Bush for Westbrook. I've got Ronnie Brown and Ced Benson as my other 2 backs so I still have depth.

 

[Bossman]

I feel bad for all you Reggie Bust owners. You all bought into the hype and now you shall pay.

I think he will have the numbers he got vs. IND more often than he will have the 100 yd / 2TD games people were expecting.

In a Dynasty, I'd much rather own a more traditional runner like Adrian Peterson.... heck, I'd rather own Deuce McAllister at this point.

The real gems of last years RB class are Maroney and Addai.