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Buy Low (1 Viewer)

Is anyone worried about Jordan's vanishing catches? Tie that to the 3-13 or 4-12 season Oakland is staring in the face, and I think he'll be a Top 15-20 back this year, not a Top 8-12 guy. I think it's hard to get some of these big names, guys like Manning, Palmer, Hasselbeck. McGahee, one TD in 11 games. I'm not a big fan.
I would be worried about his receptions. I don't have solid stats to back me up but Brooks (to me) has always been a downfield passer and not a real accurate dink/dunk type of QB. I think with McGahee, while you always have to consider the past for any player, you have to look at the present and what has changed in players situations. In McGahee's situation I'd say most things have changed for the better from last year. I'm guessing you haven't seen him run in the preseason or the 1st game. He looks great and has that burst back.
McCallister always caught the ball out of the backfield with Brooks at QB
Code:
Receiving Year Team			G GS Rec Yds Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ 1st 2001 New Orleans Saints 16 4 15 166 11.1 22 1 2 0 8 2002 New Orleans Saints 15 15 47 352 7.5 30 3 1 0 15 2003 New Orleans Saints 16 16 69 516 7.5 39 0 2 0 22 2004 New Orleans Saints 14 14 34 228 6.7 20 0 1 0 5 2005 New Orleans Saints 5 5 17 117 6.9 22 0 2 0 4 2006 New Orleans Saints 1 1 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL   67 55 182 1379 7.6 39 4 8 0 54
 
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Is anyone worried about Jordan's vanishing catches? Tie that to the 3-13 or 4-12 season Oakland is staring in the face, and I think he'll be a Top 15-20 back this year, not a Top 8-12 guy. I think it's hard to get some of these big names, guys like Manning, Palmer, Hasselbeck. McGahee, one TD in 11 games. I'm not a big fan.
I would be worried about his receptions. I don't have solid stats to back me up but Brooks (to me) has always been a downfield passer and not a real accurate dink/dunk type of QB. I think with McGahee, while you always have to consider the past for any player, you have to look at the present and what has changed in players situations. In McGahee's situation I'd say most things have changed for the better from last year. I'm guessing you haven't seen him run in the preseason or the 1st game. He looks great and has that burst back.
McCallister always caught the ball out of the backfield with Brooks at QB
Code:
Receiving Year Team			G GS Rec Yds Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ 1st 2001 New Orleans Saints 16 4 15 166 11.1 22 1 2 0 8 2002 New Orleans Saints 15 15 47 352 7.5 30 3 1 0 15 2003 New Orleans Saints 16 16 69 516 7.5 39 0 2 0 22 2004 New Orleans Saints 14 14 34 228 6.7 20 0 1 0 5 2005 New Orleans Saints 5 5 17 117 6.9 22 0 2 0 4 2006 New Orleans Saints 1 1 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL   67 55 182 1379 7.6 39 4 8 0 54
Good stuff. I guess it would also depend on the type of offense the teams are/were running. I just have to say that I don't have a lot of faith in an offensive coordinator brought directly from managing a bed/breakfast for 7 years to coach at the NFL level. Last week their offense looked about as bad as it possibly could. Was it the SD defense? First game gitters, etc? From the attitude of Moss and others on the team it just seems that this team is a total mess and will struggle to win 5 games. Personally, I'd sell any Raiders I had (fortunately I don't own any).
 
Dynasty sleepers you should buy now (chances are they are free on waiver - can't get any cheaper than that! :D ):

The future receiving corp for Dallas - Crayton, Hurd, Rector. Glenn is old & likely an injury away from career's end. TO, well, he is a great WR, but a head case. Onlya matter of time before he pisses managment off. I really like Hurd & Rector. These guys learn quick, killer work ethic, strong desire to succeed, and most importantly, they are hungry.

DeDe Dorsey, RB, IND - long shot? of course. Bengals are sorry to see him go and for good reason. The kid can run, catch, and block. Rhodes is not the answer and neither is Addai. Is Dorsey? Did I mention long shot? :yes:

Owen Daniels, TE, HOU - beat the rest of the squad for the starting position. Just a matter of time before Kubiak works into the rotation.

Matt Cassel, QB, NE - very impressive pre-season for a rookie. Brady owners, I'd handcuff him. (wait a minute! I did!)

 
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Banger said:
Chris Chambers - The Pittsburgh factor hurt Chambers on Thursday night, but a vast improvement at QB and 14 targets per game would see him finish in the 5-10 range. Five points doesn't look very impressive so move for him before he has a big game.
The onlything killing Chamber is Culpepper. He is awful!
 
Here's my two cents... take it for what it's worth.

To be a "Buy Low" opportunity, a player would have to have a few characteristics:

1) Must have some question marks heading into the season that make their expected performance hard to predict

2) Must have trends in the past to indicate that a poor performance may continue in the future.

3) Must have indications in the current situation that poor performance will continue in the future

4) Trades involved must have options to replace the "buy low" player.

Unless you're dealing with guppies, most vet's will know the value of their players. If I own Shaun Alexander, even after his performance, there is no way I move him (and say Rod Smith) for anything less than Steven Jackson and Chris Chambers. And those kind of deals are tough to make (on both sides). Now, if I'm a SA owner and I already have Jackson and someone like Willis McGahee, and I'm offered Terrell Ownes, then maybe I think about it... but normally teams are overloaded with top 20 RBs.

Here's my analysis of the players listed:

Quarterback

Marc Bulger - Yes, rams 1st team has been poor and Bulger is a middle-of-the-pack QB anyway.

Daunte Culpepper - Yes, injury last year and propensity to turn the ball over make his future quality questionable. He could go either way, but the Dolphins are a better team that the 05 vikes were.

Matt Hasselbeck - unlikely - he was projected to be a top 5 QB, and had an injured Jackson last week, and now adds Branch. His value would likely go up more than down.

Peyton Manning - Not a chance. Peyton was probably the first QB taken, and unless you're offering a top 5 QB AND something else, you're unlikely to get Peyton unless the owner is EXTREMLEY Pannicky...

Carson Palmer - See Peyton, except for the injury concern (which didn't display itself in week 1).

Jake Plummer - unlikely. Most know his poor week 1 history, and his team and passing options specifically have improved since 2005.

Running Back

Shaun Alexander - Again, top RBs wouldn't drop in value much. You MIGHT be able to pry Alexander away with an offer of Stephen Jackson and Chad Johnson, but it's unlikely someone would trade the person they thought would be one of the top 3 RBs in the league after one poor game.

LaMont Jordan - Possibly - stats were terrible, and the entire team stunk, but you may be able to move him for someone notched 5-10 places below on the opening projections

Jamal Lewis - Good one. Poor history last year, competition at the position, improved air attack could all affect him negativley.

Willis McGahee - Unlikely but possible.

Clinton Portis - Also possible. His shoulder injury could limit him for half a year or more if the injury is aggrivated, and some may not want to take that risk.

Wide Receiver

Isaac Bruce - Downward trend over the past 2 years plus Kevin Curtis make him risky, and a good buy low if you think his 10 targets/game will continue.

Antonio Bryant - Not sure how low you can get him... he's #1 in SF as was probably taken around WR#40. More than likely you'd have to offer something higher than his ADP to get him, which means you're not buying low.

Chris Chambers - Perhaps, although I've been waiting for Chambers to break out for about half a decade.

Michael Clayton - Good pick - doesn't have a great history, but could be solid this year after a ho-hum week1.

Braylon Edwards - Could be, but is risky with his QB and Winslow.

Lee Evans - Like Bryant, was probably not selected with a high pick.

Torry Holt - Unlikely as a Holt owner would have to see at least 4 concecutive weeks of poor performance before "giving up". Expect to trade someone like a Chris Chambers AND Fred Taylor to pick up Holt (i.e. a boarderline top-10 WR and a RB#3), which is not something that most owners would be willing to do.

Joe Horn - Good one - poor year last year, poor game 1, new QB, but should get better.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh- Perhaps out of sight out of mind....

Darrell Jackson - Like Holt, he was probably taken to contribute, although the injury is holding him back. Owners would likely want to see how he does "uninjured" before moving him.

Chad Johnson - See DJ above but remove the injury concerns.

Derrick Mason - I think people expect the renunion with McNair to be a good one, but the Ravens offensive plans may make some worry. Boarderline.

Randy Moss - See Holt

Steve Smith - You'd have to move a WR like Chad Johnson to get Smith (IMO)

Reggie Wayne - Possible

Troy Williamson - See Antonio Bryant.

Tight End

Todd Heap - Possible, people may have forgotten about the strong finish

Randy McMichael - Probably went arond the middle of the TEs drafted, and not sure he will peform much better than that, or any of a dozen TEs around him.

Jason Witten - a good one...

 
With Branch going to Seattle, is this the opportunity Doug Gabriel has been waiting for? Not sure how good he actually is, but he is someone that could be bought very cheap right now. Anyone from Oakland or New England have some input?

 
Droughns?
The Browns seem to be a bit of a mess. The line and the whole offense is still a work in progress. I don't expect Droughns to bomb as badlt as he did this week, but I still wouldn't want him on my team unless he was almost free.
 

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