C. Brown Dynasty prospects (1 Viewer)

[CBower4545]

C. Brown Has obvious questions this year. He has to fight of a RBBC and he has to stay healthy. My question is this what is his dynasty value? Is he a true sleeper candidate?

First lets assume he has a career year:

G GS Att Yds Avg Lg TD Rec Yds Avg Lg TD

12 12 250 1200 4.8 60 8 20 200 10.0 30 1

He starts of great and then misses a few games. He should be healthy for next year.

Will this guy get starter money somewhere? It would make five straight years he would not be able to play a full season. Does Tennesse even want to resign him for more then a year having to young high draft picks. Before you say look what happened to T. Henry, he has carried a full load before. he has made it through a full season and carried 300+ twice.

I think even with a career year I am not too optimistic about him landing a feature role, it seems like someone would have to really be willing to take a chance on him. He would get a contract but uncertainty would follow where ever he goes.

Strangely I think i might be more comfortable with these numbers:

G GS Att Yds Avg Lg TD Rec Yds Avg Lg TD

16 10 250 1000 4.0 57 6 10 100 10 20 0

He doesn't start the first six games of the year but earns his way into the starters job staying healthy all year.

I think for him staying healthy is more important than his actual number this year. If he stayed healthy all year it would give you some hope that he could be that feature guy in the future.

Unless he stays healthy and gets 300+ carries it doesn't seem like he would jump into 2008 a RB1 tier player. Even with a career year he may not be a good RB2 candidate for 08'.

Now it seems like young guys like K. Darby, K. Smith, D. Wright, G. Wolfe, M. Bush, and K. Irons have more obstacles in front of them now, but if the right situation presented itself and they performed they could steal a featured gig and have real value going forward. C. Brown needs the right opportunity this year(which he may get), he needs to perform, stay healthy, land the right job next year, perform, stay healthy, and then it seems like he would have a featured role worth good value going forward.

The younger guys should probably be able to have a bad year this year and still have opportunities going forward. If C. Brown gets injured badly or just has a terrible year he will get buried on someone's depth chart and might be close to being done.

He seems more like boom or bust for 07' then having any real value going forward. he could have value as a #2 or really good flex position this year in redraft. For dynasty wouldn't you be better off with some of the guys above?

 

[TaxMan]

I think the ZERO response in here tells it all.

 

[fsufan]

I have been trying to get Brown(before he signed back with Tenn.) cheap in one of my dynasty leagues. But the other owner does not seem interested in trading him. Would you give up a late first in 2008 for Brown if your teams is ready to win now and the league starts a flex position.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I have been trying to get Brown(before he signed back with Tenn.) cheap in one of my dynasty leagues. But the other owner does not seem interested in trading him. Would you give up a late first in 2008 for Brown if your teams is ready to win now and the league starts a flex position.

NO WAY. I own Brown in a dynasty league and if someone offered me a 1st for him i'd call 911 and send help to their house thinking they were having a seizure or something.

 

[greyone]

Chris Brown by no means is a 2rb in fantasy, Until he shows otherwise. He will prove to be a decent 3rb/flex for at least 07-08.

Nobody was willing to sign him...How will that change next season?

Dynasty wise i would go after the rooks.

 

[Driver]

I have been trying to get Brown(before he signed back with Tenn.) cheap in one of my dynasty leagues. But the other owner does not seem interested in trading him. Would you give up a late first in 2008 for Brown if your teams is ready to win now and the league starts a flex position.

If your team is ready to win now + you're very weak at the flex position, then I'd consider giving up a late 1st in 2008 to get Brown now (of course, I heavily discount the value of rookie picks outside the top-5).You'll be paying a premium to get him, but I'll be very surprised if he isn't the starter week 1 and remain the starter unless (until) he gets injured. While he's the starter, I think he's got a good chance to post top-10 to top-15 numbers.But I think you need to ask yourself what are the odds that Brown will be healthy in weeks 14, 15 and 16 to help you win a championship -- less than 50% IMO that he stays healthy. But I still might do it -- to me it's a one-year shot -- I discount Brown's future value in dynasty heavily. He *might* become a stud or featured back, but he carries a whole lot of baggage and the odds are poor.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Just for kicks (b/c I picked Brown up this offseason), I spent some time today looking at Brown's 2004 and 2005 seasons.

In 2004 he either missed or was slowed the last seven games of the year with turf toe. In 2005 he missed or was slowed the last six games of the year by a bum ankle. Turf toe. An ankle.

In the 19 games before the injuries he was a 15 PPG RB (PPR). I doubt he's that good in 2007 since TN may have zero passing game, but I don't think 13-14 PPG is a stretch if he starts (possible he'll be in a RBBC).

Longer term it's all down to his health. I'm not convinced that turf toe and an ankle injury have anything to do with him being 'an upright runner' and so am not convinced that he's 'injury prone' (whatever that means in a profession where guys miss work 10% of the time due to injuries). He could still have a decent career.

 

[TaxMan]

I have been trying to get Brown(before he signed back with Tenn.) cheap in one of my dynasty leagues. But the other owner does not seem interested in trading him. Would you give up a late first in 2008 for Brown if your teams is ready to win now and the league starts a flex position.

NO WAY. I own Brown in a dynasty league and if someone offered me a 1st for him i'd call 911 and send help to their house thinking they were having a seizure or something.

 

[greyone]

Fisher doesn't use RBBC. I read this in another thread and looked it up using the Historical Data Dominator. http://www.footballguys.com/histdd.htm

1 Titan rb gets 200+ ruattempts since 2001 and the 2rb only broke 100+attempts. He was A smith the year CBrown was injured alot.

2006 travis henry(270)-Lendale(61)-CBrown(41)

2005 Chris Brown(224)-Thenry(88)

2004 Chris Brown(220)-Ant Swmith(137)

2003 Eddie George(312)- Holcombe(63)-CBrown(56)

2002 George(343)-holcomble(47)

Norm Chow has been the OC lately, maybe he didn't like Chris Brown.

Whomever the #1rb is...he is in line for 200+ carries

 

[Bears_Man2]

low end RB2 this year. preferrably RB3. You're getting another year of production from Brown in 2007 ...which is probably a year more than you thought you were going to get after being benched in 06.

I don't think it matters though. I don't see any of the current TN RB's starting for them come 2008.

 

[Tick]

I don't see much value. I own him and have held him for no real reason, but I don't expect to ever start him. If he has two good games, I'll see if anyone else wants him for a 2nd rounder.

 

[squistion]

If he has two good games, I'll see if anyone else wants him for a 2nd rounder.

Which will be accepted in a heartbeat.

 

[chook]

This article gives an interesting take on Brown's situation. It's kind of like a FBG faceoff without an upside.

What gets me on this one is that he was a UFA for the best part of five months and nobody touched him, making me think that Fisher has only bought him in for depth and little else. Well other than maybe to be used as a spark under LenDale's butt.

 

[Bizkiteer]

This article gives an interesting take on Brown's situation. It's kind of like a FBG faceoff without an upside.

What gets me on this one is that he was a UFA for the best part of five months and nobody touched him, making me think that Fisher has only bought him in for depth and little else. Well other than maybe to be used as a spark under LenDale's butt.

I think it was more him looking for a situation that he would be the featured back. When teams weren't committing that type of money or length of contract, he played the wait & see game. He visited at least handful of teams and each of them probably would have loved to add him. Chris Brown can be a featured RB in the NFL, but not lasting a full season damages any real chance of him getting paid as a featured RB. Add that a team doesn't want to make long term leap of faith...I think IF he can make it through a whole season and not get injured, he will find himself in a better situation. Teams will be more likely to have him if he shows some durability because he does have talent.