C.J. Spiller & Giovani Bernard: Dynamic Duo? (1 Viewer)

[Flint Fireballs!]

I'm in a dynasty league and won two out of the last three titles with LeSean McCoy leading the way....but when I was offered CJ Spiller and three 1st round picks for him, I couldn't refuse. My team is in great shape, as the championships imply, but I'm real dicey at the running back position. Spiller and Gio Bernard are similar in that they are two guys who depend on big plays in order to be valuable and are both, it seems, hovering around 50/50 time shares with teammates.

Can this combination work? Should I move one for a steadier back?

I guess this is sort of a broader question when put against the backdrop of the fact that there just isn't many true 3-down backs anymore. It's hard for me to even care. I've given up on the mentality that "running backs" will score points every week, and thus my draft philosophy is "running backs running backs running backs" and now I just try to put as many explosive players in the linuep that I can. But am I making a mistake by not hedging my bets and balancing the lineup by adding a more reliable, consistant option to it like a Frank Gore? I really want to win this season. I figure regardless of what the future holds, winning 3 out of 4 (we're in season #9 right now) means I'll have pretty well put my stamp on this league.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I guess this is sort of a broader question when put against the backdrop of the fact that there just isn't many true 3-down backs anymore. It's hard for me to even care.

LeSean McCoy

Adrian Peterson

Jamaal Charles

Eddie Lacy

Matt Forte

Marshawn Lynch

Montee Ball

Doug Martin

DeMarco Murray

Arian Foster

LeVeon Bell

Zac Stacy

Rashad Jennings

Frank Gore

Toby Gerhart

Ben Tate

Chris Johnson

Steven Jackson

Total: 18 out of 32 teams (56%)

Ten years ago...

Priest Holmes

LaDainian Tomlinson

Ahman Green

Clinton Portis

Deuce McAllister

Shaun Alexander

Jamal Lewis

Edgerrin James

Fred Taylor

Corey Dillon

Domanick Davis

Rudi Johnson

Curtis Martin

Kevin Jones

Total: 14 out of 32 teams (44%)

 

[monk]

Not real sure about a few of these guys as true 3-down backs

LeVeon Bell - PIT says they are going to use both backs. Blount as a short yardage and goal line back

Zac Stacy - Bennie Cunningham could see a lot more than people expect and they have Tre Mason

Chris Johnson - Jets have flat out said that Johnson and Ivory will be splitting carries

All 3 of these guys are major Question marks ....

Rashad Jennings ... Offense Stinks, has never been a "bell-cow", has a younger, bigger stronger faster RB behind him

Frank Gore - Old & declining ... Has the most ready 2014 rookie RB behind him

Steven Jackson - Old & Injured ....Has he even gotten on the field yet?

 

[cstu]

2003 - 16 RB's with at least 275 carries

- 13 RB's with over 300 carries

2013 - 9 RB's with at least 275 carries

- 3 RB's with over 300 carries

 

[meatwad1]

I am surprised nobody is jumping down this guys throat for not putting this in the other forum. Good restraint FBGs!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

2003 - 16 RB's with at least 275 carries

- 13 RB's with over 300 carries

2013 - 9 RB's with at least 275 carries

- 3 RB's with over 300 carries

There were also 700 more rushes in the NFL in 2003, and a slew more injuries to running backs in 2013.

That's why I don't like the 300 carry number to define a feature back. I think we can pretty safely objectively say that guys like Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Zac Stacy, etc were feature backs last year even if none of them hit 300 carries due to injury, their team not running enough to support a 300 carry back, or them taking over the starting role several games into the season.

I mean sure, guys aren't running the ball 387 times like Jamal Lewis did in 2003, but then again Matt Forte actually received a larger percentage of his team's carries in 2013 than Lewis did in 2003 despite Forte having only 289 carries last year. Does it make him less of a 3-down back because his team ran the ball 150 fewer times?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I'm in a dynasty league and won two out of the last three titles with LeSean McCoy leading the way....but when I was offered CJ Spiller and three 1st round picks for him, I couldn't refuse. My team is in great shape, as the championships imply, but I'm real dicey at the running back position. Spiller and Gio Bernard are similar in that they are two guys who depend on big plays in order to be valuable and are both, it seems, hovering around 50/50 time shares with teammates.

Can this combination work? Should I move one for a steadier back?

I guess this is sort of a broader question when put against the backdrop of the fact that there just isn't many true 3-down backs anymore. It's hard for me to even care. I've given up on the mentality that "running backs" will score points every week, and thus my draft philosophy is "running backs running backs running backs" and now I just try to put as many explosive players in the linuep that I can. But am I making a mistake by not hedging my bets and balancing the lineup by adding a more reliable, consistant option to it like a Frank Gore? I really want to win this season. I figure regardless of what the future holds, winning 3 out of 4 (we're in season #9 right now) means I'll have pretty well put my stamp on this league.

In answer to your question, I think one thing that hasn't changed about FF is that the true RB1, the one with a shot at 2000 YFS, the one who can hurt your opponent in both the run and pass game and be a threat inside the 5 is still the most valuable commodity to have. And in actuality, I think the number of those guys now vs. 10 years ago is about the same.

But it's the depth at the position that for me has me looking elsewhere. Take Bernard for instance. He's a better example than Spiller in this context. To acquire Bernard, you had to burn a mid-high 2nd round pick. This for a 2nd year player who has yet to prove he can carry the load not to mention that they drafted a better compliment in the backfield to what they had last year. Now I do expect Bernard to simply be more productive in 2014 vs. his rookie year...perhaps by a significant margin. But I also feel that the delta between Bernard and Spiller, a guy going two rounds later is not all the much. And when you throw in a guy like Ryan Mathews who you can also grab in Round 4 (not to mention other solid/reasonable 'bets')...I steered away from taking RB's early preferring to not place any bets on my Rounds 1-2 picks, or at least much smaller ones.

 

[cstu]

2003 - 16 RB's with at least 275 carries

- 13 RB's with over 300 carries

2013 - 9 RB's with at least 275 carries

- 3 RB's with over 300 carries

There were also 700 more rushes in the NFL in 2003, and a slew more injuries to running backs in 2013.

That's why I don't like the 300 carry number to define a feature back. I think we can pretty safely objectively say that guys like Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Zac Stacy, etc were feature backs last year even if none of them hit 300 carries due to injury, their team not running enough to support a 300 carry back, or them taking over the starting role several games into the season.

I mean sure, guys aren't running the ball 387 times like Jamal Lewis did in 2003, but then again Matt Forte actually received a larger percentage of his team's carries in 2013 than Lewis did in 2003 despite Forte having only 289 carries last year. Does it make him less of a 3-down back because his team ran the ball 150 fewer times?

Overall RB scoring is down. I went back as far as I could in my PPR dynasty as I could.

Here are the number of RB's who posted 300 point season in PPR:

2013 - 3

2012 - 3

2011 - 4

2010 - 2

2009 - 4

2008 - 2

2007 - 2

2006 - 7

2005 - 5

2004 - 6