CalBear
Footballguy
Here is my take on the situations and prospects of all the Old Blues in fantasy positions in the NFL following the 2005 draft.
Edit 5/12/05: Lyman injury, Brien signing.
Veterans
Tony Gonzalez, TE Chiefs: The best in the business, nothing new here. Consistent value in TE-required leagues (VBD places him in late first, or second round, but he goes in the late third). A good WR2 in non-TE-required leagues. (He was a WR1 in 2004, but don't expect another 100 catches in 2005).
Kyle Boller, QB Ravens: No more excuses this year; the additions of Mason and rookie Mark Clayton, along with the return of a healthy Todd Heap and paroled Jamal Lewis should make this Ravens offense respectable. They haven't had a passing offense in the top half of the league in forever, and they've been dead last in passing yardage the past two years, but the off-season moves signal a change in philosophy in Baltimore. Boller has the tools, and he will be a pleasant surprise for some; expect the Raven's offense to be in the top half of the league, and Boller to become a decent fantasy QB2. It won't be the Rams, but there is value here.
Ryan Longwell, K Packers: No change here; a solid kicker in all weather conditions.
Adimchinobe Echemandu, RB Browns: Echemandu is still an enigma. At 235 with a 4.5 40, he looks nice on paper. I can attest that he runs hard and shows good strength once he's hit, always fighting for extra yardage. He's not particularly shifty, which is probably a problem behind that Cleveland line. The RB situation there is a mess, so there's no way to tell whether he'll even get a chance. But he could be worth stashing on the end of your bench in a deep dynasty. I think if he gets a chance he'll do a good job.
Doug Brien, K Bears: Brien returns to a Bear-themed team, though I'm not sure what bears they have in Chicago. I expect he will win the starting job, but kicking for a terrible offense at Soldier Field doesn't bode well for his fantasy prospects. A waiver-wire pickup at best.
Rookies
JJ Arrington, RB Cardinals: Obviously the most hyped Cal player coming into this year. I am torn on Arrington; he racked up some gaudy statistics, and was definitely a workhorse for us this year, but he really doesn't seem that exciting on the field. On the other hand, I thought Russell White was a spectacular runner and a sure thing, so maybe a guy who just hits the hole hard and runs fast is more likely to make it at the next level. He has good vision and very good speed, runs hard, can catch the ball and can carry a full-time load. His success will relate to how well Arizona can open holes for him; I'm not as optimistic about Denny Green's offense as some people are, but if you believe Arizona will have an effective offense, Arrington could put up big numbers, even #1 rookie RB numbers.
Chase Lyman, WR Saints: Chase Lyman battled injuries throughout his Cal career, and went down in the USC game this year with an ACL. (If he hadn't, we might have won the game; his backup, Makonnen, fell down on his pattern in the end zone on fourth down). He is definitely a question mark in that sense. It seems a bit strange that New Orleans took him, because he seems a little like Donte Stallworth; fast, athletic, injury prone. He's 6'4" and ran a 4.48 even after his ACL, so he definitely has the measurables, and I think his routes are pretty good. He's in a good spot in New Orleans; he will fill in Jerome Pathon's spot, so he won't have a lot of demands this year, and with Joe Horn getting up there in age, Lyman could become a serious target in a couple of years. Don't expect much this year. Update: Chase re-tore his left ACL running routes in training camp; a crummy deal for a great guy. He's out for 2005, and we'll just have to see if his body can hold up to playing football in 2006.
Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay: Obviously, the only way Rodgers sees the field this year is a Brett Favre injury. But Rodgers lucked out here; I don't think he would do a good job being thrown to the wolves in a place like San Francisco or Miami. He has a decent arm (nowhere near Boller's), good accuracy (but somewhat overrated based on people who only saw the USC game), and good decision-making. He's short for a QB. I really don't know if he's going to make it in the pros; QBs are so hard to predict. I think he's more likely to succeed now that he's got a year with the pressure off, so we'll see what happens if Favre ever decides to retire.
Garrett Cross, TE Green Bay: I can't imagine the Packers picked up Cross to do anything other than play catch with Rodgers on the sideline. He does have some athleticism and has made some acrobatic catches, but I don't see him making a dent in Green Bay's starting lineup.
Geoff Macarthur, WR Free Agent: The story I heard here is that MacArthur told teams not to draft him; he wants to sit out a year to fully recover from the leg he broke in December. He says if he was under contract, he would feel obligated to play even if he weren't ready. Something doesn't quite add up there. I could see MacArthur becoming a useful WR for someone; he is quite a bit like Bobby Shaw, but with more heart.
Jonathan Makonnen, WR Titans: I don't expect him to make the roster; not big enough, not fast enough, not exciting enough. The dropoff in WR production when Lyman and MacArthur got hurt was dramatic.
Edit 5/12/05: Lyman injury, Brien signing.
Veterans
Tony Gonzalez, TE Chiefs: The best in the business, nothing new here. Consistent value in TE-required leagues (VBD places him in late first, or second round, but he goes in the late third). A good WR2 in non-TE-required leagues. (He was a WR1 in 2004, but don't expect another 100 catches in 2005).
Kyle Boller, QB Ravens: No more excuses this year; the additions of Mason and rookie Mark Clayton, along with the return of a healthy Todd Heap and paroled Jamal Lewis should make this Ravens offense respectable. They haven't had a passing offense in the top half of the league in forever, and they've been dead last in passing yardage the past two years, but the off-season moves signal a change in philosophy in Baltimore. Boller has the tools, and he will be a pleasant surprise for some; expect the Raven's offense to be in the top half of the league, and Boller to become a decent fantasy QB2. It won't be the Rams, but there is value here.
Ryan Longwell, K Packers: No change here; a solid kicker in all weather conditions.
Adimchinobe Echemandu, RB Browns: Echemandu is still an enigma. At 235 with a 4.5 40, he looks nice on paper. I can attest that he runs hard and shows good strength once he's hit, always fighting for extra yardage. He's not particularly shifty, which is probably a problem behind that Cleveland line. The RB situation there is a mess, so there's no way to tell whether he'll even get a chance. But he could be worth stashing on the end of your bench in a deep dynasty. I think if he gets a chance he'll do a good job.
Doug Brien, K Bears: Brien returns to a Bear-themed team, though I'm not sure what bears they have in Chicago. I expect he will win the starting job, but kicking for a terrible offense at Soldier Field doesn't bode well for his fantasy prospects. A waiver-wire pickup at best.
Rookies
JJ Arrington, RB Cardinals: Obviously the most hyped Cal player coming into this year. I am torn on Arrington; he racked up some gaudy statistics, and was definitely a workhorse for us this year, but he really doesn't seem that exciting on the field. On the other hand, I thought Russell White was a spectacular runner and a sure thing, so maybe a guy who just hits the hole hard and runs fast is more likely to make it at the next level. He has good vision and very good speed, runs hard, can catch the ball and can carry a full-time load. His success will relate to how well Arizona can open holes for him; I'm not as optimistic about Denny Green's offense as some people are, but if you believe Arizona will have an effective offense, Arrington could put up big numbers, even #1 rookie RB numbers.
Chase Lyman, WR Saints: Chase Lyman battled injuries throughout his Cal career, and went down in the USC game this year with an ACL. (If he hadn't, we might have won the game; his backup, Makonnen, fell down on his pattern in the end zone on fourth down). He is definitely a question mark in that sense. It seems a bit strange that New Orleans took him, because he seems a little like Donte Stallworth; fast, athletic, injury prone. He's 6'4" and ran a 4.48 even after his ACL, so he definitely has the measurables, and I think his routes are pretty good. He's in a good spot in New Orleans; he will fill in Jerome Pathon's spot, so he won't have a lot of demands this year, and with Joe Horn getting up there in age, Lyman could become a serious target in a couple of years. Don't expect much this year. Update: Chase re-tore his left ACL running routes in training camp; a crummy deal for a great guy. He's out for 2005, and we'll just have to see if his body can hold up to playing football in 2006.
Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay: Obviously, the only way Rodgers sees the field this year is a Brett Favre injury. But Rodgers lucked out here; I don't think he would do a good job being thrown to the wolves in a place like San Francisco or Miami. He has a decent arm (nowhere near Boller's), good accuracy (but somewhat overrated based on people who only saw the USC game), and good decision-making. He's short for a QB. I really don't know if he's going to make it in the pros; QBs are so hard to predict. I think he's more likely to succeed now that he's got a year with the pressure off, so we'll see what happens if Favre ever decides to retire.
Garrett Cross, TE Green Bay: I can't imagine the Packers picked up Cross to do anything other than play catch with Rodgers on the sideline. He does have some athleticism and has made some acrobatic catches, but I don't see him making a dent in Green Bay's starting lineup.
Geoff Macarthur, WR Free Agent: The story I heard here is that MacArthur told teams not to draft him; he wants to sit out a year to fully recover from the leg he broke in December. He says if he was under contract, he would feel obligated to play even if he weren't ready. Something doesn't quite add up there. I could see MacArthur becoming a useful WR for someone; he is quite a bit like Bobby Shaw, but with more heart.
Jonathan Makonnen, WR Titans: I don't expect him to make the roster; not big enough, not fast enough, not exciting enough. The dropoff in WR production when Lyman and MacArthur got hurt was dramatic.
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Aye and if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon.
I agree that Arrington isn't a real flashy exciting RB. He looks like he works real hard and just gets it done, which it what I like best about him. Good build, strong legs, nice speed and vision too. I think he'll have a nice NFL career.I also agree on Garrett Cross. I really didn't pay any attention to him this past year so I don't have much knowledge about his abilities. During Green Bay's minicamp I'm not sure how involved he got. I didn't read anything about him in all the camp reports I saw. A friend to play catch with Rodgers and be a familiar face for him probably sums that up. We'll see. Green Bay's WR depth isn't the greatest and with all the 2 TE sets they run he may just be able to survive if he works hard and/or proves to be a good special teams player.
