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CalBear's Golden Bear rundown (1 Viewer)

CalBear

Footballguy
Here is my take on the situations and prospects of all the Old Blues in fantasy positions in the NFL following the 2005 draft.

Edit 5/12/05: Lyman injury, Brien signing.

Veterans

Tony Gonzalez, TE Chiefs: The best in the business, nothing new here. Consistent value in TE-required leagues (VBD places him in late first, or second round, but he goes in the late third). A good WR2 in non-TE-required leagues. (He was a WR1 in 2004, but don't expect another 100 catches in 2005).

Kyle Boller, QB Ravens: No more excuses this year; the additions of Mason and rookie Mark Clayton, along with the return of a healthy Todd Heap and paroled Jamal Lewis should make this Ravens offense respectable. They haven't had a passing offense in the top half of the league in forever, and they've been dead last in passing yardage the past two years, but the off-season moves signal a change in philosophy in Baltimore. Boller has the tools, and he will be a pleasant surprise for some; expect the Raven's offense to be in the top half of the league, and Boller to become a decent fantasy QB2. It won't be the Rams, but there is value here.

Ryan Longwell, K Packers: No change here; a solid kicker in all weather conditions.

Adimchinobe Echemandu, RB Browns: Echemandu is still an enigma. At 235 with a 4.5 40, he looks nice on paper. I can attest that he runs hard and shows good strength once he's hit, always fighting for extra yardage. He's not particularly shifty, which is probably a problem behind that Cleveland line. The RB situation there is a mess, so there's no way to tell whether he'll even get a chance. But he could be worth stashing on the end of your bench in a deep dynasty. I think if he gets a chance he'll do a good job.

Doug Brien, K Bears: Brien returns to a Bear-themed team, though I'm not sure what bears they have in Chicago. I expect he will win the starting job, but kicking for a terrible offense at Soldier Field doesn't bode well for his fantasy prospects. A waiver-wire pickup at best.

Rookies

JJ Arrington, RB Cardinals: Obviously the most hyped Cal player coming into this year. I am torn on Arrington; he racked up some gaudy statistics, and was definitely a workhorse for us this year, but he really doesn't seem that exciting on the field. On the other hand, I thought Russell White was a spectacular runner and a sure thing, so maybe a guy who just hits the hole hard and runs fast is more likely to make it at the next level. He has good vision and very good speed, runs hard, can catch the ball and can carry a full-time load. His success will relate to how well Arizona can open holes for him; I'm not as optimistic about Denny Green's offense as some people are, but if you believe Arizona will have an effective offense, Arrington could put up big numbers, even #1 rookie RB numbers.

Chase Lyman, WR Saints: Chase Lyman battled injuries throughout his Cal career, and went down in the USC game this year with an ACL. (If he hadn't, we might have won the game; his backup, Makonnen, fell down on his pattern in the end zone on fourth down). He is definitely a question mark in that sense. It seems a bit strange that New Orleans took him, because he seems a little like Donte Stallworth; fast, athletic, injury prone. He's 6'4" and ran a 4.48 even after his ACL, so he definitely has the measurables, and I think his routes are pretty good. He's in a good spot in New Orleans; he will fill in Jerome Pathon's spot, so he won't have a lot of demands this year, and with Joe Horn getting up there in age, Lyman could become a serious target in a couple of years. Don't expect much this year. Update: Chase re-tore his left ACL running routes in training camp; a crummy deal for a great guy. He's out for 2005, and we'll just have to see if his body can hold up to playing football in 2006.

Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay: Obviously, the only way Rodgers sees the field this year is a Brett Favre injury. But Rodgers lucked out here; I don't think he would do a good job being thrown to the wolves in a place like San Francisco or Miami. He has a decent arm (nowhere near Boller's), good accuracy (but somewhat overrated based on people who only saw the USC game), and good decision-making. He's short for a QB. I really don't know if he's going to make it in the pros; QBs are so hard to predict. I think he's more likely to succeed now that he's got a year with the pressure off, so we'll see what happens if Favre ever decides to retire.

Garrett Cross, TE Green Bay: I can't imagine the Packers picked up Cross to do anything other than play catch with Rodgers on the sideline. He does have some athleticism and has made some acrobatic catches, but I don't see him making a dent in Green Bay's starting lineup.

Geoff Macarthur, WR Free Agent: The story I heard here is that MacArthur told teams not to draft him; he wants to sit out a year to fully recover from the leg he broke in December. He says if he was under contract, he would feel obligated to play even if he weren't ready. Something doesn't quite add up there. I could see MacArthur becoming a useful WR for someone; he is quite a bit like Bobby Shaw, but with more heart.

Jonathan Makonnen, WR Titans: I don't expect him to make the roster; not big enough, not fast enough, not exciting enough. The dropoff in WR production when Lyman and MacArthur got hurt was dramatic.

 
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EBF

Footballguy
I've seen some conflicting opinions regarding Rodgers' arm. Can he throw the deep ball?

 

CalBear

Footballguy
I've seen some conflicting opinions regarding Rodgers' arm. Can he throw the deep ball?
I think his arm is fairly strong, but I don't think he's very accurate at long range. He missed MacArthur wide open behind the defense at least three times this year. He is fairly comfortable completing passes up to maybe 20 yards out, and has decent zip on the ball.
 

EBF

Footballguy
I've seen some conflicting opinions regarding Rodgers' arm. Can he throw the deep ball?
I think his arm is fairly strong, but I don't think he's very accurate at long range. He missed MacArthur wide open behind the defense at least three times this year. He is fairly comfortable completing passes up to maybe 20 yards out, and has decent zip on the ball.
So would you say Pennington is a good comparison, or is Rodgers' arm better than that?
 

CalBear

Footballguy
I've seen some conflicting opinions regarding Rodgers' arm. Can he throw the deep ball?
I think his arm is fairly strong, but I don't think he's very accurate at long range. He missed MacArthur wide open behind the defense at least three times this year. He is fairly comfortable completing passes up to maybe 20 yards out, and has decent zip on the ball.
So would you say Pennington is a good comparison, or is Rodgers' arm better than that?
Pennington is definitely the NFL QB who reminds me most of Rodgers. Rodgers probably has a slight edge in arm strength, but I also think Pennington has a stronger arm than people give him credit for.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Rookies

Chase Lyman, WR Saints: Chase Lyman battled injuries throughout his Cal career, and went down in the USC game this year with an ACL. (If he hadn't, we might have won the game; his backup, Makonnen, fell down on his pattern in the end zone on fourth down). He is definitely a question mark in that sense. It seems a bit strange that New Orleans took him, because he seems a little like Donte Stallworth; fast, athletic, injury prone. He's 6'4" and ran a 4.48 even after his ACL, so he definitely has the measurables, and I think his routes are pretty good. He's in a good spot in New Orleans; he will fill in Jerome Pathon's spot, so he won't have a lot of demands this year, and with Joe Horn getting up there in age, Lyman could become a serious target in a couple of years. Don't expect much this year.
:lmao: Aye and if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon.

 

Nugget

Footballguy
I don't know anything about Chase Lyman. How does he compare to Devery Henderson? I think Devery would be # 3 this season and could move be a factor in the next year or two.

 

CalBear

Footballguy
I don't know anything about Chase Lyman. How does he compare to Devery Henderson? I think Devery would be # 3 this season and could move be a factor in the next year or two.
I don't know much about Devery Henderson. I do know Lyman is six inches taller than Henderson, and almost as fast, so I wouldn't bet on Henderson beating him out in the long run.In the first three games this season (before getting injured at USC), Lyman had 12 receptions for 386 yards and 5 TDs. That's 32.2 yards per reception, 129 yards and 1.6 TD per game. It's a small data set, against weak competition, but he's definitely got big play ability. In 2003 he averaged 21.3 yards per catch, though again he was dinged most of the year and thus wasn't used as we would have liked. In the Insight Bowl he had 150 yards and a TD.

So, there aren't a huge amount of data on Lyman, but what is there indicates big play ability and tendency for injury. I think, barring injury, Lyman takes over the #3 job and challenges for #2 by 2006.

 

Kleck.

Footballguy
Great write-up CalBear :thumbup: I agree that Arrington isn't a real flashy exciting RB. He looks like he works real hard and just gets it done, which it what I like best about him. Good build, strong legs, nice speed and vision too. I think he'll have a nice NFL career.I also agree on Garrett Cross. I really didn't pay any attention to him this past year so I don't have much knowledge about his abilities. During Green Bay's minicamp I'm not sure how involved he got. I didn't read anything about him in all the camp reports I saw. A friend to play catch with Rodgers and be a familiar face for him probably sums that up. We'll see. Green Bay's WR depth isn't the greatest and with all the 2 TE sets they run he may just be able to survive if he works hard and/or proves to be a good special teams player.

 

CalBear

Footballguy
Here is my take on the situations and prospects of all the Old Blues in fantasy positions in the NFL following the 2005 draft.

Edit 5/12/05: Lyman injury, Brien signing.

Veterans

Tony Gonzalez, TE Chiefs: The best in the business, nothing new here. Consistent value in TE-required leagues (VBD places him in late first, or second round, but he goes in the late third). A good WR2 in non-TE-required leagues. (He was a WR1 in 2004, but don't expect another 100 catches in 2005).

Kyle Boller, QB Ravens: No more excuses this year; the additions of Mason and rookie Mark Clayton, along with the return of a healthy Todd Heap and paroled Jamal Lewis should make this Ravens offense respectable. They haven't had a passing offense in the top half of the league in forever, and they've been dead last in passing yardage the past two years, but the off-season moves signal a change in philosophy in Baltimore. Boller has the tools, and he will be a pleasant surprise for some; expect the Raven's offense to be in the top half of the league, and Boller to become a decent fantasy QB2. It won't be the Rams, but there is value here.

Ryan Longwell, K Packers: No change here; a solid kicker in all weather conditions.

Adimchinobe Echemandu, RB Browns: Echemandu is still an enigma. At 235 with a 4.5 40, he looks nice on paper. I can attest that he runs hard and shows good strength once he's hit, always fighting for extra yardage. He's not particularly shifty, which is probably a problem behind that Cleveland line. The RB situation there is a mess, so there's no way to tell whether he'll even get a chance. But he could be worth stashing on the end of your bench in a deep dynasty. I think if he gets a chance he'll do a good job.

Doug Brien, K Bears: Brien returns to a Bear-themed team, though I'm not sure what bears they have in Chicago. I expect he will win the starting job, but kicking for a terrible offense at Soldier Field doesn't bode well for his fantasy prospects. A waiver-wire pickup at best.

Rookies

JJ Arrington, RB Cardinals: Obviously the most hyped Cal player coming into this year. I am torn on Arrington; he racked up some gaudy statistics, and was definitely a workhorse for us this year, but he really doesn't seem that exciting on the field. On the other hand, I thought Russell White was a spectacular runner and a sure thing, so maybe a guy who just hits the hole hard and runs fast is more likely to make it at the next level. He has good vision and very good speed, runs hard, can catch the ball and can carry a full-time load. His success will relate to how well Arizona can open holes for him; I'm not as optimistic about Denny Green's offense as some people are, but if you believe Arizona will have an effective offense, Arrington could put up big numbers, even #1 rookie RB numbers.

Chase Lyman, WR Saints: Chase Lyman battled injuries throughout his Cal career, and went down in the USC game this year with an ACL. (If he hadn't, we might have won the game; his backup, Makonnen, fell down on his pattern in the end zone on fourth down). He is definitely a question mark in that sense. It seems a bit strange that New Orleans took him, because he seems a little like Donte Stallworth; fast, athletic, injury prone. He's 6'4" and ran a 4.48 even after his ACL, so he definitely has the measurables, and I think his routes are pretty good. He's in a good spot in New Orleans; he will fill in Jerome Pathon's spot, so he won't have a lot of demands this year, and with Joe Horn getting up there in age, Lyman could become a serious target in a couple of years. Don't expect much this year. Update: Chase re-tore his left ACL running routes in training camp; a crummy deal for a great guy. He's out for 2005, and we'll just have to see if his body can hold up to playing football in 2006.

Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay: Obviously, the only way Rodgers sees the field this year is a Brett Favre injury. But Rodgers lucked out here; I don't think he would do a good job being thrown to the wolves in a place like San Francisco or Miami. He has a decent arm (nowhere near Boller's), good accuracy (but somewhat overrated based on people who only saw the USC game), and good decision-making. He's short for a QB. I really don't know if he's going to make it in the pros; QBs are so hard to predict. I think he's more likely to succeed now that he's got a year with the pressure off, so we'll see what happens if Favre ever decides to retire.

Garrett Cross, TE Green Bay: I can't imagine the Packers picked up Cross to do anything other than play catch with Rodgers on the sideline. He does have some athleticism and has made some acrobatic catches, but I don't see him making a dent in Green Bay's starting lineup.

Geoff Macarthur, WR Free Agent: The story I heard here is that MacArthur told teams not to draft him; he wants to sit out a year to fully recover from the leg he broke in December. He says if he was under contract, he would feel obligated to play even if he weren't ready. Something doesn't quite add up there. I could see MacArthur becoming a useful WR for someone; he is quite a bit like Bobby Shaw, but with more heart.

Jonathan Makonnen, WR Titans: I don't expect him to make the roster; not big enough, not fast enough, not exciting enough. The dropoff in WR production when Lyman and MacArthur got hurt was dramatic.
Looking back:Tony Gonzalez: Obviously, things didn't turn out as expected for Gonzo owners, but really the only thing missing was touchdowns. He ended up right near his career average for both receptions and yardage (and in fact was the #2 TE in both those categories), but somehow nabbed only two TDs, finishing as the #7 TE by FBG scoring. He will bounce back next year, but the uncertainty around the coaching staff will keep him from being a candidate for #1 TE next year. Still, he probably should be selected in the top 3 TEs.

Kyle Boller: The injury hurt his chances to develop as a QB, but he came on strong at the end of the year (top-10 QB over the last six weeks of the season, top-5 in some formats), and on an annualized basis wound up slightly exceeding my projections. He is still not a finished product, but I think he showed enough that he'll be starting for the Ravens next year, and be selected as a QB2 in drafts. He certainly provided value for people who drafted him as a backup this year; especially Aaron Brooks owners like me.

Ryan Longwell: A poor year by his standards; he had the lowest number of field goal attempts of his career, and made just over 70%, well off his average. If Favre stays, and Walker comes back strong, and Green Bay addresses the running game, he could again be a good fantasy kicker in 2006, but if the Green Bay offense looks like it did this year, he'll be relegated to bye week territory.

JJ Arrington: The Arizona running game was just putrid, ranking last in the league in every statistical category. As I noted, Arrington can't really create for himself, and therefore can't thrive in a situation like that. He probably showed enough to win the starting job from Shipp over the off-season, but maybe not enough to keep Arizona from wanting to bring in another running back in the draft or free agency. If they stick with Arrington and get some OL help, he could be a useful backup next year.

For next year, it is definitely worth keeping an eye on both MacArthur and Lyman. With Horn fading in New Orleans, Stallworth will take over as WR#1, and no one stepped up as WR#2. Lyman has all the tools if he can keep himself healthy. For MacArthur it will depend on where he lands, but he is a hard worker who runs good routes and gets yards after the catch.

 

datems812

Footballguy
ugh i love the bears sooo much, and i was glad that they won their bowl...but this season could still be considered a bust. even though we figured out that we have the two best sophmore backs in the pac-10 in forsett and lynch, ayoob busted- and that screwed us over at qb. steve levy did a great job filling in for the bowl though, and that should create an interesting situation for next year, especially because tedford thinks highly of ayoob. one thing that i noticed about Cal was that they won all the games people thought they would win, but when i came to the games against ranked teams they lost it in the second half.but i expect great things from the golden bears in '06, considering that 95% of their starters are going to be returning next yearps. what ever happened to macarthur...i know he got hurt...but is he reentering the draft, or going in as an FA. he was really good, but i have a feeling that he won't live up to whatever expectations he has in the NFL.

 

CalBear

Footballguy
']ps. what ever happened to macarthur...i know he got hurt...but is he reentering the draft said:
MacArthur broke his leg in the last regular-season game last year, and he felt like he wasn't ready for the combine. He told teams not to draft him because he wanted the off year to rehab. I think he'd wind up as a free agent, or maybe the supplemental draft; I'm not sure what the rules are. He'll probably get a pre-season contract at least, and I think he could make an impact. I think he's better than Bobby Shaw.
 

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