Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Calvin Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Go deep]

Best WR in the league on and up and coming Lions team. The sky is the limit if Stafford can stay healthy and the two can finally get some chemistry working. On the conservative side, I will project:

154 targets

88 receptions

57%

1365 yards

15.5 ypc

13 TDs

 

[finito]

He's never hit those numbers in his career. I think he can do it, but I'm not sure that's a 'conservative' prediction.

 

[Go deep]

He's never hit those numbers in his career. I think he can do it, but I'm not sure that's a 'conservative' prediction.

Certainly you dont think he has peaked already?He is still just 25 years old. Hasnt played a season with the same QB yet, and had mostly played with garbage at QB. In his only season that he played 16 games he had 78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 tds....and remember that was with the different scrub QBs. Assuming the offense(Stafford) stays healthy, the Lions finally have a solid running game and some other receiving threats on offense. Playing indoors for most of the season doesn't hurt either. I fully expect the kind of season only the great ones can can achieve. However, I wanted to keep my projections "conservative".

 

[Clifford]

1120 and 12. 14 games played

 

[Jersey35]

He's never hit those numbers in his career. I think he can do it, but I'm not sure that's a 'conservative' prediction.

Certainly you dont think he has peaked already?He is still just 25 years old. Hasnt played a season with the same QB yet, and had mostly played with garbage at QB. In his only season that he played 16 games he had 78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 tds....and remember that was with the different scrub QBs. Assuming the offense(Stafford) stays healthy, the Lions finally have a solid running game and some other receiving threats on offense. Playing indoors for most of the season doesn't hurt either. I fully expect the kind of season only the great ones can can achieve. However, I wanted to keep my projections "conservative".

85 rec1300 yds12 TD

 

[todisco1]

He's never hit those numbers in his career. I think he can do it, but I'm not sure that's a 'conservative' prediction.

Certainly you dont think he has peaked already?He is still just 25 years old. Hasnt played a season with the same QB yet, and had mostly played with garbage at QB. In his only season that he played 16 games he had 78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 tds....and remember that was with the different scrub QBs. Assuming the offense(Stafford) stays healthy, the Lions finally have a solid running game and some other receiving threats on offense. Playing indoors for most of the season doesn't hurt either. I fully expect the kind of season only the great ones can can achieve. However, I wanted to keep my projections "conservative".

He's also been hurt quite a bit (and so has his QB). I do think he'll put up numbers similar to what you're projecting, though it seems like you're suggesting that's his floor, which I don't think it is at all.

 

[mlball77]

He's never hit those numbers in his career. I think he can do it, but I'm not sure that's a 'conservative' prediction.

Certainly you dont think he has peaked already?He is still just 25 years old. Hasnt played a season with the same QB yet, and had mostly played with garbage at QB. In his only season that he played 16 games he had 78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 tds....and remember that was with the different scrub QBs. Assuming the offense(Stafford) stays healthy, the Lions finally have a solid running game and some other receiving threats on offense. Playing indoors for most of the season doesn't hurt either. I fully expect the kind of season only the great ones can can achieve. However, I wanted to keep my projections "conservative".

He's also been hurt quite a bit (and so has his QB). I do think he'll put up numbers similar to what you're projecting, though it seems like you're suggesting that's his floor, which I don't think it is at all.

Those aren't unreasonable projections, but they aren't conservative either; even with Calvin being an elite WR in the NFL. I think those figures and the explanation looks/feels more like, "I could go buck nutty with lofty projections for Johnson and I could definitely justify them, but I'll temper them a little bit to keep them more reasonable."

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove.

There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.

86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

 

[Go deep]

He's never hit those numbers in his career. I think he can do it, but I'm not sure that's a 'conservative' prediction.

Certainly you dont think he has peaked already?He is still just 25 years old. Hasnt played a season with the same QB yet, and had mostly played with garbage at QB. In his only season that he played 16 games he had 78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 tds....and remember that was with the different scrub QBs. Assuming the offense(Stafford) stays healthy, the Lions finally have a solid running game and some other receiving threats on offense. Playing indoors for most of the season doesn't hurt either. I fully expect the kind of season only the great ones can can achieve. However, I wanted to keep my projections "conservative".

He's also been hurt quite a bit (and so has his QB). I do think he'll put up numbers similar to what you're projecting, though it seems like you're suggesting that's his floor, which I don't think it is at all.

I didn't say floor, just that they were conservative based on what I really think he will do this year. Is it crazy to think Calvin could set career highs this year? I honestly think he is going to have a 95 catch, 1500 yard 15 TD season...or pretty close. Making my original projection a bit conservative.I know alot of people come in these threads and post insanely high numbers for players they own or from their hometown team. I'm not doing that. Like every one of the spotlights I have done, I have spent a long time going over a bunch of stuff to come up with my projections. All those things are pointing to a career year (to this point) for Calvin. Of course this of assuming health for more than just Calvin, and it wouldnt hurt if they could bring in an olineman or two in FA.

 

[Go deep]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove. There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

I think best and most physically gifted are pretty much the same(thats at least what I mean when I say the best) I agree that he is not as accomplished as alot of WRs though.

 

[Air Stich]

He's never hit those numbers in his career. I think he can do it, but I'm not sure that's a 'conservative' prediction.

Certainly you dont think he has peaked already?He is still just 25 years old. Hasnt played a season with the same QB yet, and had mostly played with garbage at QB. In his only season that he played 16 games he had 78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 tds....and remember that was with the different scrub QBs. Assuming the offense(Stafford) stays healthy, the Lions finally have a solid running game and some other receiving threats on offense. Playing indoors for most of the season doesn't hurt either. I fully expect the kind of season only the great ones can can achieve. However, I wanted to keep my projections "conservative".

He's also been hurt quite a bit (and so has his QB). I do think he'll put up numbers similar to what you're projecting, though it seems like you're suggesting that's his floor, which I don't think it is at all.

Those aren't unreasonable projections, but they aren't conservative either; even with Calvin being an elite WR in the NFL. I think those figures and the explanation looks/feels more like, "I could go buck nutty with lofty projections for Johnson and I could definitely justify them, but I'll temper them a little bit to keep them more reasonable."

This is how it's going to be every year until Calvin finally puts up "All Time" numbers. No one would argue against his uber-elite potential, so it's possible that he has a Madden type season: 100 catches, 1,600 yards, 20 TDs. Trying to project his numbers isn't really that important to me. I'd take him as the #1 or 2 WR in all formats. Would I take with one of the top 10 picks, where he will inevitably go? That really depends on what I think of the RBs that are going in the same spots. My "conservative" projections for the season, assuming he plays all 16 games:82 catches, 1,201 yards, 12 TDsWith easy upside for more.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove. There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

Hilarious....before I got to your post I was planning on posting he could catch 20 TDs. If the stars align (huge if when you are talking Lion's) I think 20 TDs is very possible. However the chances are "something" will occur and he will be around 10-12.UPSIDE 90 - 1400 - 21*MORE LIKELY 80 - 1200 - 11*I am a crazy Lion's fan.

 

[sihaokills]

1350 yards 15 TDs

 

[fightingillini]

Calvin is a freak in nature. Can take it to house on any play. If Stafford can stay upright for 16 games, look out, could easily be the #1WR in FF.

85 rec, 1300 yds, 11 TD

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove. There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

I think best and most physically gifted are pretty much the same(thats at least what I mean when I say the best) I agree that he is not as accomplished as alot of WRs though.

Best and most physically gifted are in no way the same. They sometimes end up being so, because someone who's superior physically has a nice head start, but there have been plenty of immensely physically gifted players that were nowhere near the best. Matt Jones was physically gifted.As far as Calvin goes, he's got the body of a god and the football skill of a slightly above average wide receiver. Put the two together combined with a lot of targets and you've got an elite fantasy football player.If "best" were the same as "most physically gifted" than Calvin would have been the best in the game the first day he stepped onto the field and no one would ever be comparing Jerry Rice to Randy Moss.Calvin is 100x more physically gifted than Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, etc, but he's not 100x "better" than any of them.

 

[Go deep]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove. There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

I think best and most physically gifted are pretty much the same(thats at least what I mean when I say the best) I agree that he is not as accomplished as alot of WRs though.

Best and most physically gifted are in no way the same. They sometimes end up being so, because someone who's superior physically has a nice head start, but there have been plenty of immensely physically gifted players that were nowhere near the best. Matt Jones was physically gifted.As far as Calvin goes, he's got the body of a god and the football skill of a slightly above average wide receiver. Put the two together combined with a lot of targets and you've got an elite fantasy football player.If "best" were the same as "most physically gifted" than Calvin would have been the best in the game the first day he stepped onto the field and no one would ever be comparing Jerry Rice to Randy Moss.Calvin is 100x more physically gifted than Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, etc, but he's not 100x "better" than any of them.

Thats what I meant by physically gifted or best. I include the mental aspect as well...unless I am comparing the mental to the physical aspects of the player(s).My point is when I say a player is the best, the amount of SBs or playoff games he won had nothing to do with it.Ex. Peyton Manning is the better QB, Tom Brady is more accomplished.As far as Calvin, I think he has the body of a great to greatest WR, and the football skill of a very good to great WR.I dont think he is that much more physically gifted than Andre, or even Fitz, although I give him a distinct edge over Wayne and White.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove. There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

I think best and most physically gifted are pretty much the same(thats at least what I mean when I say the best) I agree that he is not as accomplished as alot of WRs though.

Best and most physically gifted are in no way the same. They sometimes end up being so, because someone who's superior physically has a nice head start, but there have been plenty of immensely physically gifted players that were nowhere near the best. Matt Jones was physically gifted.As far as Calvin goes, he's got the body of a god and the football skill of a slightly above average wide receiver. Put the two together combined with a lot of targets and you've got an elite fantasy football player.If "best" were the same as "most physically gifted" than Calvin would have been the best in the game the first day he stepped onto the field and no one would ever be comparing Jerry Rice to Randy Moss.Calvin is 100x more physically gifted than Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, etc, but he's not 100x "better" than any of them.

@ armchair 's"football skills of a slightly above average wr"watch 1:45- 2:15 specifically to see these 'football skillz' at work. wow.

 

[drater]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove.

There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.

86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

I think best and most physically gifted are pretty much the same(thats at least what I mean when I say the best) I agree that he is not as accomplished as alot of WRs though.

Best and most physically gifted are in no way the same. They sometimes end up being so, because someone who's superior physically has a nice head start, but there have been plenty of immensely physically gifted players that were nowhere near the best. Matt Jones was physically gifted.As far as Calvin goes, he's got the body of a god and the football skill of a slightly above average wide receiver. Put the two together combined with a lot of targets and you've got an elite fantasy football player.

If "best" were the same as "most physically gifted" than Calvin would have been the best in the game the first day he stepped onto the field and no one would ever be comparing Jerry Rice to Randy Moss.

Calvin is 100x more physically gifted than Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, etc, but he's not 100x "better" than any of them.

@ armchair 's"football skills of a slightly above average wr"

lolThe real factor regarding Calvin's upside is can Stafford stay upright. 16 games out of Stafford (never happened, will it ever?), or even 12+ would be a huge difference on his numbers than another season with scatter shot arm dancing in the pocket Shaun Hill taking the majority of the snaps.

Staff starts 12+ games

90+ receptions

1450 yards

14 TD

Hill starts more than 50% of the time

80 receptions

1250 yards

10 TD

Stafford starts all 16, watch out.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Stud. Tempering this to normal numbers.

83 catches for 1245 yards, 12 TD, ~ wr 2 with upside

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Don't forget to factor in the D into these projections. The Lions will be in a lot more favorable scoring situations/short fields due to sacks/TO's than they have in since the days of bennie blades and robert porcher.

Plus they haven't had a ground game this good (and balanced) since the days of barry. This team is gonna score a LOT of points, and MEGA is a big red zone target. I'd be suprised if he doesn't at least get 100 catches this year, since the defenses will not be able to 2x/3x team him as they have int he past to stop him. Plus the emergence of Pettigrew and the running game has to mean that CJ gets an extra 2-3 goalline TDs from red zone 'jump balls' with the d leaning run.

109 receptions

1537 yards

17 tds

Going against the grain and not putting 'if stafford plays X games" caveats, as CJ has shown that he can catch balls from any of these qbs, and if anything Hill et all will lean on him more than stafford might he to.

This is the year MEGATRON ends the year WR1. If anything, the lockout/lack of training camp/schemes etc will allow the truly physically gifted players to shine, and CJ will be on that list. The sick thing is that as gaudy as the numbers i put up are, I think he might outpace them.

 

[treat88]

Surprised it hasn't been mentioned yet, but the one thing that tempers my expectations for him is the inexplicable lack of involvement he seems to have until late in the game. Not every game, but several, it seemed almost as if Schwarz's gameplan was intentionally to use Calvin as a decoy right up until mid 4th quarter. Maybe it was the ability of the D to essentially triple team him due to the lack of any other threat that caused them to avoid him, but I'm not at all convinced Titus Young changes that dynamic.

Additionally, and I'm in no way questioning his toughness, Johnson does have a proclivity to get nicked up. He put up some of his best numbers while listed on the injury report, but he also exited several contests early over the last three seasons with a variety of lower extremity injuries. I cringe every time they call his number on that damn WR reverse they run as it always seems a LB/DE is there to blow him up usually by cutting his legs.

I have zero doubt that Johnson has the physical talent to be the most dominant WR in the league, and I know my observations are anecdotal, but I'm not sure Calvin ever quite puts up the dominant season some expect, with or without Stafford, in Detroit.

81/1250/9

 

[AmosMoses]

141 targets, 87 catches, 1350 yards, 12 TDs. 3 rushes, 20 yards.

 

[Grahamburn]

Calvin Johnson has 887 yards on 60 receptions and 7 TDs in 12 games with Matthew Stafford. That's an average game of 5 catches for 74 yards and .58 TDs. Not terrible, but not eye popping either.

That would prorate out to a full season of 80/1,184/9. You can safely start there as a floor for Calvin give or take a couple receptions.

He's had a propensity to get a little nicked up, but has only actually missed 4 games in his 4 year career. He's also shown the ability to produce regardless of who the QB is, which is why people get so excited about his potential if he can ever get consistent QB play.

I'm a bit apprehensive to assume that Calvin and Stafford will both make it through the entire season unscathed. Calvin is basically an 80/1,300/12 WR when the Lions are terrible and the QB is interchangeable. It's amazing what Calvin has accomplished in Detroit considering the turmoil that has surrounded this team during his career.

If the Lions offense clicks, the defense can play well, and both players are healthy ALL season then Calvin is a fairly safe bet for 90/1,400/14+.

To me, he's well worth the late first or early second round pick you'll have to spend to get him in a redraft because you know he'll see 160 targets and score 10+ TDs in spite of the situation. If he's on your keeper or dynasty team, just sit back and wait/hope for the perfect storm.

Oh, and never, ever take him out of your lineup.

 

[JPeso]

I dont think he is that much more physically gifted than Andre, or even Fitz, although I give him a distinct edge over Wayne and White.

Can't be serious..

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I dont think he is that much more physically gifted than Andre, or even Fitz, although I give him a distinct edge over Wayne and White.

Can't be serious..

agreed. dude is 6'6 /260 with a 45 inch vert and brains (ga tech/41 on wunderlich). Oh yeah and he runs a 4.33... He is the WR I create on Madden if I cheat....

 

[silentmark]

Oh, and never, ever take him out of your lineup.

^^^^ THIS.

 

[T with T]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove. There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

I think best and most physically gifted are pretty much the same(thats at least what I mean when I say the best) I agree that he is not as accomplished as alot of WRs though.

Best and most physically gifted are in no way the same. They sometimes end up being so, because someone who's superior physically has a nice head start, but there have been plenty of immensely physically gifted players that were nowhere near the best. Matt Jones was physically gifted.As far as Calvin goes, he's got the body of a god and the football skill of a slightly above average wide receiver. Put the two together combined with a lot of targets and you've got an elite fantasy football player.If "best" were the same as "most physically gifted" than Calvin would have been the best in the game the first day he stepped onto the field and no one would ever be comparing Jerry Rice to Randy Moss.Calvin is 100x more physically gifted than Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, etc, but he's not 100x "better" than any of them.

what do you mean he has the skill of a slightly above avg wide receiver???? I think you are just posting stuff to look smart, Calvin has the skill of a great wr, what doesn't he do well let me know??? he played with drew stanton half a season with no qb and still put up ridiculous numbers you are crazy man, put the two together nothing, Calvin is the best receiver in the league90-1400 15 tds

 

[T with T]

I dont think he is that much more physically gifted than Andre, or even Fitz, although I give him a distinct edge over Wayne and White.

Can't be serious..

agreed. dude is 6'6 /260 with a 45 inch vert and brains (ga tech/41 on wunderlich). Oh yeah and he runs a 4.33... He is the WR I create on Madden if I cheat....

not to spoil your fun but he is 6-5 235 but you were close, and yes he is far more superior in talent and athleticism to any wr ever. Randy Moss was called the freak and he was 6-4 210, very skinny , not as strong or as tough as Calvin and Calvin can run with anyone.

 

[Terpman22]

Monster season. Stafford in there a lot, but maybe not the whole season.

93/1488/15.

And those that do not think this guy is very talented, or slow...etc...average?? You should just quit and play fantasy futbol

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I play in a league that starts 2Qb and 4WR along with 3RBs. WRs dominated the top 30 in scoring last season. Right now, unless somebody like Foster or Vick some how falls to me at the #5 pick, I'm planning on grabbing Calvin Johnson as the #1 WR this season.

Last season he finished as the #3WR in my league. He was robbed of 1 TD and had to deal with some sketchy QB play, yet he produced. He can only go up from here, if he stays healthy. 85-1400-15 seems reasonable.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

My #1 WR off the board this year.

85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

 

[Ilov80s]

My #1 WR off the board this year.85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

 

[Tau837]

My #1 WR off the board this year.85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Career years happen for multiple players every season. Calvin seems as likely as anyone to have one this season.

 

[Ilov80s]

My #1 WR off the board this year.85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Career years happen for multiple players every season. Calvin seems as likely as anyone to have one this season.

Why is he as likely as anyone? No concern that the Lions have increased the number of weapons they have to spread the ball around too? Do you have any statistical evidence that Calvin is more productive with Stafford than with the slew of backup QBs he has worked with?ETA: There are many players more likely to have career years. CJ already had what would be a career year for almost any WR. It would be much more likely that someone like Crabtree, Mike Willaims (either one) or Maclin has a career year.

 

[Tau837]

My #1 WR off the board this year.85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Career years happen for multiple players every season. Calvin seems as likely as anyone to have one this season.

Why is he as likely as anyone? No concern that the Lions have increased the number of weapons they have to spread the ball around too? Do you have any statistical evidence that Calvin is more productive with Stafford than with the slew of backup QBs he has worked with?

1. No, no concern about other weapons.2. Breakout seasons are often not predictable in advance based on statistical evidence.

 

[Grahamburn]

My #1 WR off the board this year.

85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Calvin Johnson has 887 yards on 60 receptions and 7 TDs in 12 games with Matthew Stafford. That's an average game of 5 catches for 74 yards and .58 TDs. That would prorate out to a full season of 80/1,184/9.Those statistics are obviously from Stafford's rookie season and last season where he was in and out of the lineup.

People get excited about the possible continuity at the QB position throughout training camp, practices, and hope/expect it can carry over into 16 game days. Everyone would likely agree that Calvin Johnson hasn't had any positive consistency at quarterback throughout his career. He's already had 7 different QBs in his 4 seasons.

When you have a player that has finished as WR3 and WR6 in the situations that Calvin has faced it's easy to get caught up in the thought of what he could do in a positive fantasy environment.

 

[humpback]

My #1 WR off the board this year.85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Are you predicting him to miss games? On a per game basis, you're projecting him to have career lows in receptions and yards (besides rookie season). I think he's much more likely to test career highs than career lows.

 

[Ilov80s]

My #1 WR off the board this year.85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Are you predicting him to miss games? On a per game basis, you're projecting him to have career lows in receptions and yards (besides rookie season). I think he's much more likely to test career highs than career lows.

I also predicted him to have 15 TDs (career best). I think he is going to be sick this year and easily a top WR. I am a Lion homer! I just think it is unrealistic to predict career highs across the board. The Lions were in the top 5 in passes thrown last season. That isn't the way the team wants it and the expectation is with a healthy Best and LeShoure, the Lions will run the ball more often. In addition, the Lions had absolutely no viable #3WR last year. Derrick Williams and Bryant Johnson were pathetic at best. While Titus Young is no lock, he can't be anything but an upgrade from those clowns. In the passing game, Burelson, Pettigrew, Best, Young, LeShoure, and Scheffler (and whatever FA WR they sign) will all be competing with Calvin for balls. There are few teams in the NFL with as many different weapons in the passing game. I see CJ seeing less passes, but the balls he get he will be in position to do more damage with. Most will be deep balls or redzone targets.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

My #1 WR off the board this year.85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Are you predicting him to miss games? On a per game basis, you're projecting him to have career lows in receptions and yards (besides rookie season). I think he's much more likely to test career highs than career lows.

I also predicted him to have 15 TDs (career best). I think he is going to be sick this year and easily a top WR. I am a Lion homer! I just think it is unrealistic to predict career highs across the board. The Lions were in the top 5 in passes thrown last season. That isn't the way the team wants it and the expectation is with a healthy Best and LeShoure, the Lions will run the ball more often. In addition, the Lions had absolutely no viable #3WR last year. Derrick Williams and Bryant Johnson were pathetic at best. While Titus Young is no lock, he can't be anything but an upgrade from those clowns. In the passing game, Burelson, Pettigrew, Best, Young, LeShoure, and Scheffler (and whatever FA WR they sign) will all be competing with Calvin for balls. There are few teams in the NFL with as many different weapons in the passing game. I see CJ seeing less passes, but the balls he get he will be in position to do more damage with. Most will be deep balls or redzone targets.

Maybe that's why you're conservative. Because you're a Lions fan. I'm a Packer fan and I've seen enough from him to believe he could very easily become the very best WR in the NFL. If Stafford stays healthy he's got an arm that can make Calvin the top WR too.

 

[Ilov80s]

My #1 WR off the board this year.

85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Are you predicting him to miss games? On a per game basis, you're projecting him to have career lows in receptions and yards (besides rookie season). I think he's much more likely to test career highs than career lows.

I also predicted him to have 15 TDs (career best). I think he is going to be sick this year and easily a top WR. I am a Lion homer! I just think it is unrealistic to predict career highs across the board. The Lions were in the top 5 in passes thrown last season. That isn't the way the team wants it and the expectation is with a healthy Best and LeShoure, the Lions will run the ball more often. In addition, the Lions had absolutely no viable #3WR last year. Derrick Williams and Bryant Johnson were pathetic at best. While Titus Young is no lock, he can't be anything but an upgrade from those clowns. In the passing game, Burelson, Pettigrew, Best, Young, LeShoure, and Scheffler (and whatever FA WR they sign) will all be competing with Calvin for balls. There are few teams in the NFL with as many different weapons in the passing game. I see CJ seeing less passes, but the balls he get he will be in position to do more damage with. Most will be deep balls or redzone targets.

Maybe that's why you're conservative. Because you're a Lions fan. I'm a Packer fan and I've seen enough from him to believe he could very easily become the very best WR in the NFL. If Stafford stays healthy he's got an arm that can make Calvin the top WR too.

I'm not a negative Lion fan. I know Detroit was the last team to beat Green Bay and I hope they still are when Thanksgiving rolls around.Bring It

 

[scrumptrulescent]

My #1 WR off the board this year.

85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Are you predicting him to miss games? On a per game basis, you're projecting him to have career lows in receptions and yards (besides rookie season). I think he's much more likely to test career highs than career lows.

I also predicted him to have 15 TDs (career best). I think he is going to be sick this year and easily a top WR. I am a Lion homer! I just think it is unrealistic to predict career highs across the board. The Lions were in the top 5 in passes thrown last season. That isn't the way the team wants it and the expectation is with a healthy Best and LeShoure, the Lions will run the ball more often. In addition, the Lions had absolutely no viable #3WR last year. Derrick Williams and Bryant Johnson were pathetic at best. While Titus Young is no lock, he can't be anything but an upgrade from those clowns. In the passing game, Burelson, Pettigrew, Best, Young, LeShoure, and Scheffler (and whatever FA WR they sign) will all be competing with Calvin for balls. There are few teams in the NFL with as many different weapons in the passing game. I see CJ seeing less passes, but the balls he get he will be in position to do more damage with. Most will be deep balls or redzone targets.

Maybe that's why you're conservative. Because you're a Lions fan. I'm a Packer fan and I've seen enough from him to believe he could very easily become the very best WR in the NFL. If Stafford stays healthy he's got an arm that can make Calvin the top WR too.

I'm not a negative Lion fan. I know Detroit was the last team to beat Green Bay and I hope they still are when Thanksgiving rolls around.Bring It

This is about Calvin's fantasy potential, not about Lions fans getting puffed up because Detroit beat the Packers in a season where they ended 6-10 and Green Bay ended with a Lombardi Trophy. Settle down.

 

[Ilov80s]

My #1 WR off the board this year.

85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Are you predicting him to miss games? On a per game basis, you're projecting him to have career lows in receptions and yards (besides rookie season). I think he's much more likely to test career highs than career lows.

I also predicted him to have 15 TDs (career best). I think he is going to be sick this year and easily a top WR. I am a Lion homer! I just think it is unrealistic to predict career highs across the board. The Lions were in the top 5 in passes thrown last season. That isn't the way the team wants it and the expectation is with a healthy Best and LeShoure, the Lions will run the ball more often. In addition, the Lions had absolutely no viable #3WR last year. Derrick Williams and Bryant Johnson were pathetic at best. While Titus Young is no lock, he can't be anything but an upgrade from those clowns. In the passing game, Burelson, Pettigrew, Best, Young, LeShoure, and Scheffler (and whatever FA WR they sign) will all be competing with Calvin for balls. There are few teams in the NFL with as many different weapons in the passing game. I see CJ seeing less passes, but the balls he get he will be in position to do more damage with. Most will be deep balls or redzone targets.

Maybe that's why you're conservative. Because you're a Lions fan. I'm a Packer fan and I've seen enough from him to believe he could very easily become the very best WR in the NFL. If Stafford stays healthy he's got an arm that can make Calvin the top WR too.

I'm not a negative Lion fan. I know Detroit was the last team to beat Green Bay and I hope they still are when Thanksgiving rolls around.Bring It

This is about Calvin's fantasy potential, not about Lions fans getting puffed up because Detroit beat the Packers in a season where they ended 6-10 and Green Bay ended with a Lombardi Trophy. Settle down.

I am kidding around- just trying to let you know I am not one of those people who thinks the Lions will always suck forever (we have a lot in Detroit). Also, why do you think I am being conservative? For a guy who has finished in the top Top 5 at WR only 1x in 4 years, I don't see anything conservative about projecting him to finish in the Top 5 in nearly every scoring format (which is where 70 catches, 1050 yards and 15 TDs would likely place him).

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I am kidding around- just trying to let you know I am not one of those people who thinks the Lions will always suck forever (we have a lot in Detroit). Also, why do you think I am being conservative? For a guy who has finished in the top Top 5 at WR only 1x in 4 years, I don't see anything conservative about projecting him to finish in the Top 5 in nearly every scoring format (which is where 70 catches, 1050 yards and 15 TDs would likely place him).

When fully healthy in his sophomore year he had 78/1331/12. He's 25 years old now, the offense around him is better than it's ever been, and he's primed to explode. 70 catches at 1050 yards would be woefully low, barring injury, imo.

 

[humpback]

My #1 WR off the board this year.85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Are you predicting him to miss games? On a per game basis, you're projecting him to have career lows in receptions and yards (besides rookie season). I think he's much more likely to test career highs than career lows.

I also predicted him to have 15 TDs (career best). I think he is going to be sick this year and easily a top WR. I am a Lion homer! I just think it is unrealistic to predict career highs across the board. The Lions were in the top 5 in passes thrown last season. That isn't the way the team wants it and the expectation is with a healthy Best and LeShoure, the Lions will run the ball more often. In addition, the Lions had absolutely no viable #3WR last year. Derrick Williams and Bryant Johnson were pathetic at best. While Titus Young is no lock, he can't be anything but an upgrade from those clowns. In the passing game, Burelson, Pettigrew, Best, Young, LeShoure, and Scheffler (and whatever FA WR they sign) will all be competing with Calvin for balls. There are few teams in the NFL with as many different weapons in the passing game. I see CJ seeing less passes, but the balls he get he will be in position to do more damage with. Most will be deep balls or redzone targets.

We're all playing a guessing game here, but I don't really agree with your logic. The lions will have a decent amount of weapons, but let's not go overboard and say there are few teams with as many weapons in the passing game. We have no idea if a 2nd rd. rookie WR is going to be a big weapon, especially in his first year with a shortened offseason. Even if he is, couldn't you argue that he'll be good for Calvin because he'll take some coverage away from him?I don't think your overall ff numbers are far off, but I think your projection for receptions and yards are very low. Projecting career lows in catches and yards (ppg) and career highs in TDs seems strange to me.

 

[Ilov80s]

Calvin Johnson is physically the most gifted WR in the NFL, although he's not the best WR because he's never done it in a big game. He's never been on a team that's gone .500 before, so to me he still has a lot to prove.

There's a lot of If's. If Stafford plays 16 games and so does Calvin, the guy could actually catch 20 Td's. Those are big Ifs though.

86 catches, 1250 yards and 14 Tds

I think best and most physically gifted are pretty much the same(thats at least what I mean when I say the best) I agree that he is not as accomplished as alot of WRs though.

Best and most physically gifted are in no way the same. They sometimes end up being so, because someone who's superior physically has a nice head start, but there have been plenty of immensely physically gifted players that were nowhere near the best. Matt Jones was physically gifted.As far as Calvin goes, he's got the body of a god and the football skill of a slightly above average wide receiver. Put the two together combined with a lot of targets and you've got an elite fantasy football player.

If "best" were the same as "most physically gifted" than Calvin would have been the best in the game the first day he stepped onto the field and no one would ever be comparing Jerry Rice to Randy Moss.

Calvin is 100x more physically gifted than Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, etc, but he's not 100x "better" than any of them.

Talk about getting carried away. What does 100x more athletically gifted? Because he can't run 100x faster or jump 100x higher or lift 100x more weight. We are talking about elite athletes. CJ is of the most supreme talent and it shows , but he is just a shade above Andre. You want to talk about numbers due to targets, look at the leaderboard of the most targets in fantasy football over the last 2 years. AJ, Fitz, and Wayne are targeted more than anyone.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Camp and pre-season reports?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I dont think he is that much more physically gifted than Andre, or even Fitz, although I give him a distinct edge over Wayne and White.

Can't be serious..

agreed. dude is 6'6 /260 with a 45 inch vert and brains (ga tech/41 on wunderlich). Oh yeah and he runs a 4.33... He is the WR I create on Madden if I cheat....

6'5" 236 4.35 40 43" vert *

 

[Raider Nation]

Calvin - Roddy...

Roddy - Calvin ...

After Andre the giant, I keep going back and forth on who I have at #2.

 

[Irish Chaos]

My #1 WR off the board this year.

85 receptions. 1,450 yards, 16 TD's.

Hard to predict career highs in every area. I'm not sure there is any statistical evidence to support him playing better with Stafford in (prove me wrong, I could be). I'm not saying CJ doesn't deserve to be the top WR, I just think you are being too optimistic. That being said, with his ability in the endzone, he should score 1x every game. He is that difficult to cover in the endzone. 70 receptions 1050 yards 15 TD

Career years happen for multiple players every season. Calvin seems as likely as anyone to have one this season.

Why is he as likely as anyone? No concern that the Lions have increased the number of weapons they have to spread the ball around too? Do you have any statistical evidence that Calvin is more productive with Stafford than with the slew of backup QBs he has worked with?

1. No, no concern about other weapons.2. Breakout seasons are often not predictable in advance based on statistical evidence.

Not sure that's always true...what about the 3rd year wr theory?? Im sure there are other examples as well...