Can Alex Smith equal 2006 Phillip Rivers (1 Viewer)

[KellysHeroes]

Last yr.. Rivers surprised everyone and even though it didn't seem it; he mailed in a top 10 FF QB finish

SF looks like it got the same formula going..

Improved O-Line / Great Running game / Good TE / Improved WRs / Very Improved Defense..

so can A Smith slip into the top 10 like Rivers did last yr.

 

[LBH]

I voted yes. I think A.Smith is going to be solid

 

[CalBear]

Smith was awful in 2006; the fact that he was in the Ryan Leaf zone in 2005 doesn't mean that a bottom-10 QB performance in 2006 indicates great things to come. At most, he'll move up from awful to bad in 2007.

Oh, and SF had a good TE, but he's now playing for New Orleans. Now they have a Ricky Dudley wannabe.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Smith was awful in 2006; the fact that he was in the Ryan Leaf zone in 2005 doesn't mean that a bottom-10 QB performance in 2006 indicates great things to come. At most, he'll move up from awful to bad in 2007.Oh, and SF had a good TE, but he's now playing for New Orleans. Now they have a Ricky Dudley wannabe.

Hater...VD is going to be very good

 

[Keith Lewis]

Smith was awful in 2006; the fact that he was in the Ryan Leaf zone in 2005 doesn't mean that a bottom-10 QB performance in 2006 indicates great things to come. At most, he'll move up from awful to bad in 2007.Oh, and SF had a good TE, but he's now playing for New Orleans. Now they have a Ricky Dudley wannabe.

The only thing CalBear does in these forums is rip on the 49ers. I believe I have heard CalBear make the statement "I haven't watched an NFL game in many years" so his opinion on the NFL really isn't worth reacting to at all.

 

[Tau837]

Last yr.. Rivers surprised everyone and even though it didn't seem it; he mailed in a top 10 FF QB finishSF looks like it got the same formula going.. Improved O-Line / Great Running game / Good TE / Improved WRs / Very Improved Defense.. so can A Smith slip into the top 10 like Rivers did last yr.

Sorry, but I don't see the similarities. First of all, Rivers didn't surprise everyone... it was clear that he was a very good QB in a very good situation. Many of us predicted he would excel.Is SF's OL going to be as good as SD's was last year? I doubt it.Are SF's WRs and TEs going to be as good as SD's were last year? I doubt it.Will SF's running game be as good as SD's was last year? It's good, but not that good.Will SF's defense be as good as SD's was last year, thus putting Smith in situations as favorable as Rivers had? I doubt it.Is Alex Smith as good a QB as Rivers? Not in my opinion.To put it another way, can Smith finish ahead of all but 9 of these guys in fantasy points (in no particular order)?Peyton ManningPalmerBreesBradyVickYoungMcNabbRiversRomoEli ManningBulgerFavreRoethlisbergerHasselbeckKitnaLosmanMcNairLeinartDelhommeThat's 19... I can agree with you that Smith is likely to finish in the top 20. Note I'm not saying all of these guys will finish ahead of Smith, I just don't see him finishing in the upper half of this group.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Is SF's OL going to be as good as SD's was last year? Almost there

Are SF's WRs and TEs going to be as good as SD's were last year? TE no, WR much better

Will SF's running game be as good as SD's was last year? It's good, but not that good.

Will SF's defense be as good as SD's was last year, thus putting Smith in situations as favorable as Rivers had? Don't be shocked if its top 10 D this yr.. Improved everywhere

Is Alex Smith as good a QB as Rivers? Not in my opinion.

To put it another way, can Smith finish ahead of all but 9 of these guys in fantasy points (in no particular order)?

Who can Smith Pass on this list

Peyton Manning NO

Palmer NO

Brees NO

Brady NO

Vick NO

Young MAYBE

McNabb NO if he plays a whole season

Rivers NO

Romo MAYBE.. about equal

Eli Manning YES

Bulger NO

Favre YES

Roethlisberger YES

Hasselbeck NOT if he plays the whole season

Kitna YES in my sack heavy league

Losman HELL YA

McNair HELL YA

Leinart MAYBE

Delhomme HELL YA

That's 19... I can agree with you that Smith is likely to finish in the top 20. Note I'm not saying all of these guys will finish ahead of Smith, I just don't see him finishing in the upper half of this group.

He finished QB 17 last yr in my league..

 

[Chase Stuart]

He finished QB 17 last yr in my league..

That's misleading, though.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec

SF QBs ranked 29th in total FPs. That means the SF Team QB was only better than three Team QBs: Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Oakland. They finished behind Houston.

Alex Smith ranked 17th in your league and 18th in FBG scoring because he took every snap for the 49ers, not because he was anywhere near the 17th best fantasy option most weeks. He ranked 14th in pass attempts but 18th in fantasy points, which is a pretty good indicator that he was below average. Surely Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard/Byron Leftwich, Damon Huard and Jay Cutler would have outscored Smith if they had his attempts, and probably Jason Campbell and Matt Leinart would have as well. That leaves 7 team QBs -- the three he beat, and Charlie Frye, David Carr, Jake Delhomme and Joey Harrington. He was probably better than all of them, but that still puts him in the bottom quarter of the league.

 

[UCSBgerry]

He finished QB 17 last yr in my league..

Only because Big Ben, Hasselbeck, Leinart and even Delhomme did not play all their games. In addition, Joey Freaking Harrington would of scored more fantasy points than Smith if he played the entire season.

Alex Smith is really ranked about 22nd in the league.

 

[LBH]

He finished QB 17 last yr in my league..

That's misleading, though.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec

SF QBs ranked 29th in total FPs. That means the SF Team QB was only better than three Team QBs: Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Oakland. They finished behind Houston.

Alex Smith ranked 17th in your league and 18th in FBG scoring because he took every snap for the 49ers, not because he was anywhere near the 17th best fantasy option most weeks. He ranked 14th in pass attempts but 18th in fantasy points, which is a pretty good indicator that he was below average. Surely Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard/Byron Leftwich, Damon Huard and Jay Cutler would have outscored Smith if they had his attempts, and probably Jason Campbell and Matt Leinart would have as well. That leaves 7 team QBs -- the three he beat, and Charlie Frye, David Carr, Jake Delhomme and Joey Harrington. He was probably better than all of them, but that still puts him in the bottom quarter of the league.

how much stock to you put in the other things that he has going for him this year? An improved WR core, a healthy V.Davis, better team defense, and another year of development

 

[thecatch]

Last yr.. Rivers surprised everyone and even though it didn't seem it; he mailed in a top 10 FF QB finishSF looks like it got the same formula going.. Improved O-Line / Great Running game / Good TE / Improved WRs / Very Improved Defense.. so can A Smith slip into the top 10 like Rivers did last yr.

Sorry, but I don't see the similarities. First of all, Rivers didn't surprise everyone... it was clear that he was a very good QB in a very good situation. Many of us predicted he would excel.Is SF's OL going to be as good as SD's was last year? I doubt it.Are SF's WRs and TEs going to be as good as SD's were last year? I doubt it.Will SF's running game be as good as SD's was last year? It's good, but not that good.Will SF's defense be as good as SD's was last year, thus putting Smith in situations as favorable as Rivers had? I doubt it.Is Alex Smith as good a QB as Rivers? Not in my opinion.To put it another way, can Smith finish ahead of all but 9 of these guys in fantasy points (in no particular order)?Peyton ManningPalmerBreesBradyVickYoungMcNabbRiversRomoEli ManningBulgerFavreRoethlisbergerHasselbeckKitnaLosmanMcNairLeinartDelhommeThat's 19... I can agree with you that Smith is likely to finish in the top 20. Note I'm not saying all of these guys will finish ahead of Smith, I just don't see him finishing in the upper half of this group.

If you can draft him as QB20, then I think that's a great move. He's got the ability (IMO) to be a top 10 with a good supporting cast. Not saying I'd bet on it, but he's definitely a sleeper. I am very worried about a new (and unknown) coordinator taking over this year, despite the dramatic improvement in the player department.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Last yr.. Rivers surprised everyone and even though it didn't seem it; he mailed in a top 10 FF QB finishSF looks like it got the same formula going.. Improved O-Line / Great Running game / Good TE / Improved WRs / Very Improved Defense.. so can A Smith slip into the top 10 like Rivers did last yr.

Sorry, but I don't see the similarities. First of all, Rivers didn't surprise everyone... it was clear that he was a very good QB in a very good situation. Many of us predicted he would excel.Is SF's OL going to be as good as SD's was last year? I doubt it.Are SF's WRs and TEs going to be as good as SD's were last year? I doubt it.Will SF's running game be as good as SD's was last year? It's good, but not that good.Will SF's defense be as good as SD's was last year, thus putting Smith in situations as favorable as Rivers had? I doubt it.Is Alex Smith as good a QB as Rivers? Not in my opinion.To put it another way, can Smith finish ahead of all but 9 of these guys in fantasy points (in no particular order)?Peyton ManningPalmerBreesBradyVickYoungMcNabbRiversRomoEli ManningBulgerFavreRoethlisbergerHasselbeckKitnaLosmanMcNairLeinartDelhommeThat's 19... I can agree with you that Smith is likely to finish in the top 20. Note I'm not saying all of these guys will finish ahead of Smith, I just don't see him finishing in the upper half of this group.

If you can draft him as QB20, then I think that's a great move. He's got the ability (IMO) to be a top 10 with a good supporting cast. Not saying I'd bet on it, but he's definitely a sleeper. I am very worried about a new (and unknown) coordinator taking over this year, despite the dramatic improvement in the player department.

 

[Chase Stuart]

He finished QB 17 last yr in my league..

That's misleading, though.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec

SF QBs ranked 29th in total FPs. That means the SF Team QB was only better than three Team QBs: Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Oakland. They finished behind Houston.

Alex Smith ranked 17th in your league and 18th in FBG scoring because he took every snap for the 49ers, not because he was anywhere near the 17th best fantasy option most weeks. He ranked 14th in pass attempts but 18th in fantasy points, which is a pretty good indicator that he was below average. Surely Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard/Byron Leftwich, Damon Huard and Jay Cutler would have outscored Smith if they had his attempts, and probably Jason Campbell and Matt Leinart would have as well. That leaves 7 team QBs -- the three he beat, and Charlie Frye, David Carr, Jake Delhomme and Joey Harrington. He was probably better than all of them, but that still puts him in the bottom quarter of the league.

how much stock to you put in the other things that he has going for him this year? An improved WR core, a healthy V.Davis, better team defense, and another year of development

I have a hard time thinking that a better team defense helps him. I've never seen a study showing that QB fantasy production improves with improving defenses.Jackson is good, but so was Bryant. I'm not really convinced that's an upgrade, unless Jackson plays in at least 12 games. Losing Eric Johnson will off-set the improvements from Davis, IMO. Another year of development should help, and there *might* be an improvement in his targets, if Davis and Jackson are healthy. I don't know anything about Jason Hill.

The biggest reason for expected improvement out of Smith is San Francisco ran only 918 plays last year, second fewest in the league. That should improve by about 80 this year, which could help Smith's total numbers quite a bit. (This cuts against "downgrading" him because he played all 16 games). But on a per attempt basis, Smith wasn't very good last year, and I wouldn't project him to be above average this year.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Frave and Grossman, in my league, are QB top 10 and their rated lower than Smith on that list.. so I don't know what to make of it

 

[Chase Stuart]

Frave and Grossman, in my league, are QB top 10 and their rated lower than Smith on that list.. so I don't know what to make of it

Favre led the league in pass attempts. Favre ranked 6th in passing yards last year, because he threw so many damn passes. Only two QBs since the merger have ranked outside of the top 8 in passing yards when leading the league in attempts.

 

[thecatch]

Losing Eric Johnson will off-set the improvements from Davis, IMO.

That's one of the more ridiculous things I've read this offseason.

 

[Vision6]

No, A.Smith isn't nearly the QB Rivers is

Watching him last year was frustrating as hell, Vernon had to do everything after the catch

 

[CalBear]

The only thing CalBear does in these forums is rip on the 49ers. I believe I have heard CalBear make the statement "I haven't watched an NFL game in many years" so his opinion on the NFL really isn't worth reacting to at all.

I believe you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Frave and Grossman, in my league, are QB top 10 and their rated lower than Smith on that list.. so I don't know what to make of it

Favre led the league in pass attempts. Favre ranked 6th in passing yards last year, because he threw so many damn passes. Only two QBs since the merger have ranked outside of the top 8 in passing yards when leading the league in attempts.

What about Grossman then.. he was low on that list too and was QB 10

I have a hard time thinking that a better team defense helps him. I've never seen a study showing that QB fantasy production improves with improving defenses.

The biggest reason for expected improvement out of Smith is San Francisco ran only 918 plays last year, second fewest in the league.

It just makes sense.. better D means more turnovers and less 3rd down conversions.. that gets their offense off the field and it gives your offense more time on the field per game.It also help when the other team doesn't score 14 pts in the first quater

 

[nygiants56]

without Norv Turner, this offense is going to struggle, as Hostler is in his first season of coaching as an OC at the pro level..this will take some time to adjust and to learn the ropes.

no way will Gore come close to his 2006 totals, and that will ,in turn,hurt Alex Smith's production..

 

[Chase Stuart]

Frave and Grossman, in my league, are QB top 10 and their rated lower than Smith on that list.. so I don't know what to make of it

Favre led the league in pass attempts. Favre ranked 6th in passing yards last year, because he threw so many damn passes. Only two QBs since the merger have ranked outside of the top 8 in passing yards when leading the league in attempts.

What about Grossman then.. he was low on that list too and was QB 10

I have a hard time thinking that a better team defense helps him. I've never seen a study showing that QB fantasy production improves with improving defenses.

The biggest reason for expected improvement out of Smith is San Francisco ran only 918 plays last year, second fewest in the league.

It just makes sense.. better D means more turnovers and less 3rd down conversions.. that gets their offense off the field and it gives your offense more time on the field per game.It also help when the other team doesn't score 14 pts in the first quater

It doesn't just make sense to me. The number 1, 3 , 5 and 6 fantasy QBs last year played on bad defenses, and the highest ranking by a QB on a top 10 defense was number 7 (Brady).

 

[KellysHeroes]

Yes [ 38 ] [62.30%]

Not Yet [ 15 ] [24.59%]

Never [ 8 ] [13.11%

Thats much better than i expected... a lot more people must of been impressed w/ their draft

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Posting a thread like this is weak since you also posted your roster with Smith on your team.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Posting a thread like this is weak since you also posted your roster with Smith on your team.

ummmmmmmmmmmmso what

 

[Tau837]

Yes [ 38 ] [62.30%] Not Yet [ 15 ] [24.59%] Never [ 8 ] [13.11% Thats much better than i expected... a lot more people must of been impressed w/ their draft

I see this as a referendum on the quality of poll results in the Shark Pool nowadays.