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Can Jason Witten be a good to great TE for as long as Gonzo? (1 Viewer)

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bombjack

Footballguy
Witten is getting up there in age. What are his dynasty prospects like?

On the surface comparable to Tony Gonzalez. Similar size, plays smart, has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career. Is it unrealistic to expect another 4-5 years from him catching minimum 80 balls?

 
I say no. Nothing against Witten, but I dont think any TE in the past, or ever again, will be as good for as long and Tony G

 
bombjack said:
Witten is getting up there in age. What are his dynasty prospects like?

On the surface comparable to Tony Gonzalez. Similar size, plays smart, has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career. Is it unrealistic to expect another 4-5 years from him catching minimum 80 balls?
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I don't see why not. Looking at his record so far, and he's only 31, and he's in a good organization with a good quarterback who he has a good rapport with... I really don't see why not.

 
I really don't know to be honest, but my gut feeling is that Tony G is a HOF guy who may go down as the best of all time at his position. Witten is very good but I don't think his talent level is quite as high. So as he declines with aging I expect the point will come where he just isn't as effective and it will come sooner than for Tony G.

Can someone make an argument that up to age 31 their production is comparable? Or, if we have physical measurables that they are comparable?

 
Not a Gonzalas fan at all. He's been a giant doosh anytime Ive ever seen him speak or on tv not playing football.

Ill never forget when he just quit the skills competition at the pro bowl because the footballs were being thrown too fast. He just whined and walked off.

Seems like a guy who trashes his own QB when he doesn't get the ball.

To answer your question - No , Witten is already starting to slow down.

 
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I'd bet against it. Gonzalez is such an outlier I don't think I'd ever plan on seeing it again. Witten also doesn't have nearly as much athleticism to give back.

 
Hard to say, given that Witten is a substantially different player than Gonzalez. Gonzalez was able to mitigate his loss of athleticism late in his career (and thus his ability to separate) by using his massive catch radius. Witten is a tremendous player in his own right, but sometimes he plays like his elbows are glued to his sides.

 
He's on a better career pace than Gonzo so far in catches and yards (historically) so the question is can he continue? Not sure a guy is slowing down when he had a record 110 receptions last year and on pace for 90+ again this season.

Thru 10 seasons:

Witten - 159 games (1 missed), 806 receptions, 8948 yards, 44 TDs

Gonzo - 158 games (2 missed), 721 receptions, 8868 yards, 61 TDs

Gonzo is more of a TD threat. Both ridiculously durable. Both came into the league at 21. The stats above are what they accomplished between 21-30 years of age.

In year 11 (Age 31) Gonzo posted 99/1172/5. In year 12 Gonzo posted 96/1058/10.

In year 11 (Age 31) Witten is on pace for 90/1001/9.6...pretty darn close.

Jury is out!

 
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http://www.fftoday.com/articles/bales/13_te_age.html

http://thedctimes.com/2013/03/fantasy-football-ages-of-decline-for-wrs-tes/

Witten is already surpassing the point where historically players from the position saw some sharp decline. Does that mean he will for another 6 seasons like Gonzalez? I don't think so. Witten not showing signs of decline right now. The offensive situation seems favorable to Wittens opportunity.

If you look only at the best TE such as Sharpe and others, that those players have a bit longer than the majority of them for being productive receivers. So odds are at least decent that Witten will be a good TE for 2-3 of the possible seasons if one compared him to Gonzalez 6 more productive seasons after 31.

Witten is currently on pace for 89.6catches 1001yds 9.6 TD

He is averaging 9.9ppg so far which is slightly better than his previous 2 season highs of 9.8 in 2007 and 9.6 in 2010. So I think it is fair to say we have not seen a decline in Witten yet at age 31.

 
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Mighty Mice said:
He's on a better career pace than Gonzo so far in catches and yards (historically) so the question is can he continue? Not sure a guy is slowing down when he had a record 110 receptions last year and on pace for 90+ again this season.

Thru 10 seasons:

Witten - 159 games (1 missed), 806 receptions, 8948 yards, 44 TDs

Gonzo - 158 games (2 missed), 721 receptions, 8868 yards, 61 TDs

Gonzo is more of a TD threat. Both ridiculously durable. Both came into the league at 21. The stats above are what they accomplished between 21-30 years of age.

In year 11 (Age 31) Gonzo posted 99/1172/5. In year 12 Gonzo posted 96/1058/10.

In year 11 (Age 31) Witten is on pace for 90/1001/9.6...pretty darn close.

Jury is out!
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Not very relevant given the passing explosion that did NOT happen during Gonzos first 8 years.

We are saying (well some of you are anyway) that Witten will remain elite for 7 more years................I would bet againts it at 10:1 odds, easily.

 
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Mighty Mice said:
He's on a better career pace than Gonzo so far in catches and yards (historically) so the question is can he continue? Not sure a guy is slowing down when he had a record 110 receptions last year and on pace for 90+ again this season.

Thru 10 seasons:

Witten - 159 games (1 missed), 806 receptions, 8948 yards, 44 TDs

Gonzo - 158 games (2 missed), 721 receptions, 8868 yards, 61 TDs

Gonzo is more of a TD threat. Both ridiculously durable. Both came into the league at 21. The stats above are what they accomplished between 21-30 years of age.

In year 11 (Age 31) Gonzo posted 99/1172/5. In year 12 Gonzo posted 96/1058/10.

In year 11 (Age 31) Witten is on pace for 90/1001/9.6...pretty darn close.

Jury is out!
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I like Gates as well, especially now that he finally seems to be healthy again.

152 games, 8759 yards, 85 TDs

Unfortunately, those 2 missed injury years and the fact he started later means he can likely never catch Gonzo yardage-wise.

 
I can't remember the last time I rostered Witten much less started him. That said he is a true professional and will be missed when he retires. 

 
Jason Witten will be 34 years old this season. Looking at historical data (a couple of studies posted above) 34 is another drop point for TE but it isn't a large drop from age 33 as age 35 is from 34.

Witten may not be as much of a HOF lock as Gonzo, but based on his career I think he has a pretty good chance of being recognized.

He has not missed a game since he was a rookie.

He has never been ranked outside of the top 12 for standard scoring leagues (except for his rookie season). He was TE 10 in PPR leagues last season.

Currently has ADP of 134 

Dallas may not be able to run the ball as much as they did in 2014 or 2015. People forget how much Scott Linehan likes to throw the ball. While I am sure they will try to run the ball 500 times again, game flow and the players they have may not allow them to do so. Rookie RB struggle to get 300 rushing attempts in their rookie seasons and I don't see Elliot being close to 400 rushing attempts like Murray had in 2014. I would expect Elliots rushing attempts to be closer to 300 than 400 and might be a little less than 300 when it's all is said and done, so who is the other RB that is going to get 100+ carries?

Wittens 3 year average is 102 targets 71 receptions 756 yards 5TD 

I don't see much reason to expect  Wittens numbers to be lower than they have been over the last 3 years. In 2017 he will be 35 years old so you could point to the historical data about that next year but it is clear that Witten has made it past the age 31 drop and his performance hasn't really declined that much, he just isn't getting as many targets as he did at his peak.

While I don't see Witten having 147 targets ever again. It is certainly within the realm of possibilities that WItten could see 120 targets this year if the Cowboys do pass the ball more. He has had 120 or more targets six times, with 2011 being very close to that at 117 targets.He has not had 120 targets over the last 3 seasons however.

Seems like a lot of reward for a low price. I like that.

 
After being used to Madden and Gruden on MNF, I'm not liking Witten's debut this year.  Maybe I'm wrong but he does seem to be rather timid who is unlike Madden and Gruden to which would show their forceful personality. 

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
Is Jason Witten sporting a toupee these days?  Sure looked like one.  I never thought I'd see Witten wearing a wig.
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I think it must be the spray stuff. At that point, just keep it super-short or shave.

I'm blessed with good hair genes, but it cracks me up seeing what guys will do for their "wig".

Maybe I'd feel differently if I was balding, though.

 
Aznflyer14 said:
After being used to Madden and Gruden on MNF, I'm not liking Witten's debut this year.  Maybe I'm wrong but he does seem to be rather timid who is unlike Madden and Gruden to which would show their forceful personality. 
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He’s not a natural at all. I’d be interested in understanding how ‘talent spotters’ in this business settle on a guy like Witten (or anyone else for that matter).  Fact is Booger steals the show...

 
Football Jones said:
I think it must be the spray stuff. At that point, just keep it super-short or shave.

I'm blessed with good hair genes, but it cracks me up seeing what guys will do for their "wig".

Maybe I'd feel differently if I was balding, though.
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Yeah I'm 56 & got a full mop, always will if genes are an indicator. Secretly giggle at combovers, toupees and expensive treatments.

Also feel bad doing so knowing I'd be insecure if it were me. Did nothing to deserve it. Similarly I don't have a 31 inch waist because I'm a gym rat, just won the gene lottery.

But Witten? Def as fake as DJT.

Commentary wise, he was dreadful. Maybe the worst ever? Made people long for Dennis Miller.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Yeah I'm 56 & got a full mop, always will if genes are an indicator. Secretly giggle at combovers, toupees and expensive treatments.

Also feel bad doing so knowing I'd be insecure if it were me. Did nothing to deserve it. Similarly I don't have a 31 inch waist because I'm a gym rat, just won the gene lottery.

But Witten? Def as fake as DJT.

Commentary wise, he was dreadful. Maybe the worst ever? Made people long for Dennis Miller.
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Nothing to do with football, but I hear ya on the gene thing. We're all blessed with positives & negatives.

I recently bought some more "modern" type jeans to expand my wardrobe & the 30's fit best (& I'm not skinny at 180). I irritate the #### out of my family & friends, LOL.

On the other hand, when my allergies flare up, I'm thinking I could deal with a little less hair & a bigger waist.

 
Former Cowboys and Raiders TE Jason Witten announced his retirement from the NFL after 17 seasons.

Witten, 39 in May, is signing a one-day contract with the Cowboys to retire as a member of the team he spent his first 16 years with before joining the Raiders for the 2020 season. Witten was out of the league in 2018 when he joined ESPN's Monday Night Football booth, but that was a total disaster for both sides. He came out of his hiatus for two more playing seasons and ends his Hall of Fame career with 1,228 catches for 13,046 yards and 74 touchdowns. He turned in four 1,000-yard seasons and four others of 850-plus yards, never missing a game from 2004 forward. Witten made 11 Pro Bowls and was a first-team All-Pro twice. Witten made over $76 million in the NFL.

RELATED: 

Las Vegas Raiders

Jan 27, 2021, 4:24 PM ET
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