This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
He certainly won't "dethrone" DeSean. If Philly with Kolb turns out to have a good passing offense, there might be enough numbers for both to be legitimate fantasy players.But that's a big "if."
I don't know that it happens this year. But, it's certainly in the works. Probably 2011 at the earliest.
Why is that? because he's not 6'3" 217? As long as Jackson has his speed he will be a #1 WR.
I think it's the idea that DeSean is a big play guy, and that he does most of his damage in huge chunks. That sort of production is traditionally inconsistent. However, DeSean also has speed and moves like no other receiver in some time, which makes him a unique weapon, and a guy who could possibly sustain that. This will be his first season with a target on his back and a full year of game-breaking tape on him, so defenses may adjust. I think it's mostly going to come down to whether the Eagles are willing to let Kolb unload at this point. If not, Maclin has the chance to take over since he's a good 20 pounds bigger than DeSean and a bit more suited to the pounding one can get on short routes with linebackers hovering all over the place. I personally think that this season DeSean takes a small step back if he does at all--remember how well he and Kolb worked together during their limited games last year, and note how Philly tended to get him involved in more medium routes and red zone looks towards the end of the season--but Maclin gets a boost. The yardage will come out of the tertiary receivers like Avant. Celek will probably stay about the same.
I think you, and many others, need to take a closer look at Jackson's stats and game logs.Let's not forget that Jackson only played in 15 games last year and really it was more like 14 and 1 quarter as he got hurt very early in the week 11 Redskins game. Let's throw week 11 and week 12 out since he only played about 1 quarter of action. If not for that injury his target total would have been in the 130's.From week 10 on he had 35 catches(5.8 per game) 596 yards(99.3 per game) and 5 TD's(.83 per game) if he were to keep up that pace he'd project to:92 catches1,589 yards13 TD'sDuring that 6 game stretch he also had 61 targets(10.2 per game)which would be 163 over 16 games, plus he had no fewer than 7 targets in any game during that stretch. I'm not saying that he'll keep up that pace, but its in Philly's best interest to get the ball to their best playmaker and there is no reason he can't put up at least 80% of those numbers.I guess what I'm saying is that while his highlight reel makes it seem like Jackson is a one trick pony, he's actually a pretty complete WR who is consistently targeted and has some upside as a guy who's still only 23. Then again, I'm a bit of a Jackson homer dating back to his Cal days, but there aren't more than 3 WR's I'd rather own and I think Jackson is more likely to be the #1 WR in all of fantasy football than he is to fall out of the top-10, let alone be passed by Maclin, who I agree is a very good talent in his own right. I see Jackson as a talent much more like Marvin Harrison or Isaac Bruce than guys like Santana Moss or Bernard Berrian.Perhaps the bigger picture here is that unless Kolb is a complete bust, there is no reason why the Eagles won't have a top-5 passing game for years to come.ETA: During the 2 Kolb starts Jackson had 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TD's, off of 19 targets. Obviously that pace isn't going to be kept up or else he'd be the best WR in NFL history, but it isn't irrelevant either.
the fact that he was within 2 targets per game last year tells us he can "dethrone" DeSean. More likely it's 1a/1b with Celek the #3.
He reminds me more of a young Torry Holt.But I digress...There have been some great posts in this thread. Fantastic dialogue both ways stating the merits of each player. As an objective Eagles fan(yes we exist)I honestly can't predict which way it will go with Maclin and Jackson. Jackson has elite talent and a remarkable feel for the game. When I watch him week in and week out, play in and play out, he does things as a WR that make your jaw drop, and he makes it look easy.
Exactly. He could be a very good #2 if they stay a good passing offense. The title of this thread doesn't really reflect the question. It should be can Maclin out up good numbers in Philly with DeSean Jackson there. DeSean could be a slot receiver or be moved around if Maclin challenges him for the top receiver. #1 and 2 receivers often don't matter with passing teams. There can be enough balls to go around. If Kolb fails or gets hurt we could see Vick as QB and that would change everything.
Maclin also didn't assume a starting spot until Week 5 (after the bye) I believe. He also missed two games later in the season (Weeks 14 & 15) and in Week 1 didn't record any stats (not sure why).If you only count the games where he was a starter (Weeks 5-17), his season total AS A ROOKIE would project to:71 receptions1,043 yardsPretty impressive. IMO, he's already a better route runner than DeSean. In Philly's offense, I'd prefer the guy who can get it done all over the field rather than the guy you have to rely on 50 yard TDs from to be a WR1.
There's a few flaws in the thinking starting with the bolded part. First off, not that "poor" - he is virtually the same guy. Statistically, over his first two seasons, DeSean has actually been better - his # of receptions his higher, TDs are higher and YPC are higher. Calling him a poor man's S. Smith is underselling him in the Philly offense. The comparison to J. Charles is just silly. Charles is a guy who in two years hadn't been able to work his way on the field for significant playing time despite being in the league for that long. DJax was a highly drafted rookie who has seen playing time and made an impact since day 1. We also have two seasons of production to look at as DeSean's body of work, vs. half a season from Charles.
Will Dez definately be there at 3? If so, I'd take that deal too.someone offered me Maclin and the #3 rookie pick for Desean...he wants a bonfide top 5-8 WR NOW....Hmmm, in a start 3 WR league, I'll take Maclin and Dez for Desean....
well, one of:Best or Bryant.can't go wrong with either IMO.Will Dez definately be there at 3? If so, I'd take that deal too.someone offered me Maclin and the #3 rookie pick for Desean...he wants a bonfide top 5-8 WR NOW....Hmmm, in a start 3 WR league, I'll take Maclin and Dez for Desean....
Dez or your choice of Best/Spiller plus Maclin is just insane value.well, one of:Best or Bryant.can't go wrong with either IMO.Will Dez definately be there at 3? If so, I'd take that deal too.someone offered me Maclin and the #3 rookie pick for Desean...he wants a bonfide top 5-8 WR NOW....Hmmm, in a start 3 WR league, I'll take Maclin and Dez for Desean....
I don't know why, he's extremely talented. The guy is instant offense, I don't see how he doesn't stay a legitimate WR1 unless their QB turns into Scott Mitchell, but that's more of a knock on the QB than Jackson himself.
While I'd like to see him get more targets too, don't forget the main reason he had so few: he erases opportunities for himself by scoring 60-yarders!A big play receiver is naturally going to see fewer targets because his actions result in his team as a whole having fewer opportunities for targets. Think about a normal TD drive of 60-80 yards; if it ends in the red zone, a team's top receiver is going to catch a lot of balls. If it ends from 60 yards out, then that receiver just eliminated the additional target or two he probably would have seen had the team marched down the field gradually. The counterargument to this is that a short possession has little effect on a team's offensive plays, but I'd argue that it's still a significant factor.
Personally, I think it's a little bit silly to say "well, a WR only caught 62 and 63 balls in his first two years in the league, so odds are all he is is a 65 reception kind of guy". But maybe that's just me.Everyone talks about how young Maclin is, and how impressive it is that he did what he did as a rookie. Well, why isn't it just as impressive that Desean did what he did as a second year player? Especially when paired with the fact that Maclin's rookie season wasn't nearly as impressive as Desean's was?
The problem is that both WRs seem equal in talent and skill as well as a talented catch passing TE plus an RB with decent hands. If Jackson didn't have so much talent around him I would love his draft spot... but I just think owners taken him around WR7 will be disappointed due to his opps and not his talent. I usually go with the saying "the talent will rise" but in this case the player is just too expensive; I just did a start up and DJax was taken at 1.14.
You post good stuff, but there are some mistakes I want to clean up regarding your analysis. Maclin started in Weeks 2 and 3, but not Week 13 or 15. linkdoowain said:
I didn't do all of the necessary digging on games started. I thought I remembered him not starting until after the bye....but ok
We still need to realize he was a rookie last year. Not beating out Curtis in camp? I think that was probably more veteran favoritism than anything. If not, he still beat him out for the starting job in Week 2. You say it was due to injury. IMO, he'd have beat him out for the job regardless. We can't detract from Maclin by looking at the Curtis injury as the only reason he became a starter. There is a long list of NFL stars that became starters due to injury to the guy in front of them. I think this situation is no different.
no kidding.. your lucky if hes still there in the mid 2nd
But still not as good as Jackson was as a rookie.
That's subjective. DeSean didn't have another WR with top notch talent on the roster to compete with as a rookie. That's not detracting from Jackson, but it's certainly a factor in production.
No on is expecting him to build on his record breaking stat. At no point in my response did I say he was going to break his own record in terms of 50+ yard TDs. Yes, he relies on breaking big plays - but the ability he has to make such plays is why he is so highly ranked. There are a handful of NFL players who can take it to the house virtually anytime they touch the ball he is one. And there's no need to get rude about the Charles comparison - you're the one who brought him up. Yes, both he and Charles rely on the big play - but DeSean has proven for the past two years that he can make the big play fairly conisistently (in record-breaking fashion as you pointed out)
Once again, I wasn't twisting anything - you brought up Steve Smith (which I think is an appropriate comparison, btw). My point was simply that calling DJax a "poor man's Steve Smith" is implying that he isn't as good as Smiff - I disagree. You don't like Smith's first two years as a point of comparison? Fine. Use any season. Save for 2005 when Smith had 103 receptions, DeSean Jackson's 2nd year in the league was better than any season Smith has had.
Your final point may be correct, but value wasn't the point of the thread. Maclin overtaking DeSean is, and I don't think Maclin will come close - especially in leagues where DeSean's rushing and punt return yards and TDs count as well.
Where in Philly do you live?
Why can't anyone possibly believe that? He had 1000 yards from scrimmage AS A ROOKIE. He had 1300/10 AS A SOPHOMORE. When Calvin Johnson went for 1330/12 as a second year player, he was a consensus top-3 WR. Then Desean Jackson goes for 1304/10 as a second-year player- in 15 games, no less- and people can't possibly believe he's a top-7 WR? What makes it so fine to feel that way about Calvin (or, for that matter, Colston- who is being drafted ahead of Desean despite having a career best YFS of 1202), but so ludicrous to feel that way about Desean?I really don't get the progression. Year 1 = 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Year 2 = #4 fantasy WR despite missing a game. Year 3 = it's literally IMPOSSIBLE TO BELIEVE (your words, not mine) that Desean might be a top-7 WR?
1461/6 in 14 games > 1304/10 in 15 games. That's almost a 1700 YFS pace by Smiff in 2008- it's not his fault that his team scored 30 of its 45 TDs on the ground that year, while Jackson's team only managed 14 rushing TDs. Also, Smiff's 1227/9 in 14 games is essentially a wash with Jackson's 1304/10 in 15 games.I like Desean a lot, but he's still got a little ways to go before he's as good as Smiff. Jackson's career year last year was only as good as Smiff's 3rd best season, and Smiff did his damage with Jake Delhomme under center, not Donovan McNabb.
a season is what a season is. one played 15 games, one played 14. that was their seasons. i'm not going to prorate it to 16 games. there's just as good a chance of jackson having 1 catch for 7 yards in the last season game as there is of him going off for 8-170 and 3 TDs. ok, probably not the same. that's not my contention.let's take those stats and figure out the FF stats for them (non-ppr):
First off, it's only better for Jackson if you took a zero in the weeks Smiff missed. Second off, I'm not talking fantasy stats- which overrate TDs compared to yards and vary from league to league (Desean outscored Smiff by 8 in standard leagues, Smiff outscored Desean by 7 in PPR)- I'm just talking about the quality of the season. Even if you don't pro-rate to 16 games, 1461/6 with 58 first downs is a better season than 1304/10 with 41 first downs. 160 more yards and a whopping 17 more first downs more than makes up for a 4 TD advantage for Desean- the fact that he compiled his stats in fewer games was just the icing on the cake.Desean's a fantastic receiver... but he's not Steve Smith. Not yet, anyway. Get back to me when a team triple covers him sometime.
