Can we all pause a moment, united, and give thanks that (1 Viewer)

[Truebluey]

there hasn't really been a runaway Hype Train leaving from Narrative Street Station this preseason, heading full steam ahead down the Christine Michael/Darwin Thompson tracks and then careening into unsuspecting fantasy rosters across the FBG Land, wreaking havoc and mayhem and leaving behind hurt, befuddled and angry owners?

Perhaps tis the lack of actual preseason games, but the runaway Hype Train seems to be parked in the station yard, replaced this year by lots of arguments about which rookie RB and WR will make an immediate impact for their team. And at least most of them have valid backgrounds to support those arguments.

I'm thankful.

 

[Truebluey]

Oh CRAP!  Here comes Antonio Gibson.

Choo choo!!!!!

 

[Mingooch]

Might even add Van Jefferson too

 

[Truebluey]

Might even add Van Jefferson too

See I don't think folks are going crazy over Van Halen.  He's had a nice camp, people are noticing, but noone (?) is saying he's going to be the savior of your season as we've seen in past years with the Christine Michael truthers, etc.

 

[Deamon]

See I don't think folks are going crazy over Van Halen.  He's had a nice camp, people are noticing, but noone (?) is saying he's going to be the savior of your season as we've seen in past years with the Christine Michael truthers, etc.

That's cause no rb in the league this year is as talented as Christine Michael.

 

[ZWK]

CEH.

Or does the universal acceptance of his status as a top 10 pick mean that it no longer counts as "hype"? Do guys like Phillip Lindsay, Alfred Morris, and Marques Colston count as hype trains alongside Darwin Thompson, Miles Boykin, etc.?

Other rookies who have gotten some hype: Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, Ke'Shawn Vaughn (derailed), Jalen Reagor, Antonio Gibson, Bryan Edwards, Van Jefferson, Albert Okwuegbunam, Joshua Kelley, Gabriel Davis.

BTW, Christine Michael didn't have much of a rookie preseason hype train. That train took a while to pick up steam rather than being shot out of a cannon. I ranked him as dynasty RB28 headed into his rookie year, and I was higher than average on him.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

That's cause no rb in the league this year is as talented as Christine Michael.

Shot out of a cannon.

 

[I-ROK]

CEH... 

 

[I-ROK]

Don’t get me wrong, I am coming around on him but people are taking him 1.05 I’ve seen. That’s absolutely bonkers for an unproven rookie with a poor profile. Even if he is on the Chiefs

 

[zamboni]

Don’t get me wrong, I am coming around on him but people are taking him 1.05 I’ve seen. That’s absolutely bonkers for an unproven rookie with a poor profile. Even if he is on the Chiefs

With CEH, the hype certainly seems to be more situation than talent (not that he doesn’t have the talent).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I trust the chiefs talent evaluation. 

I’m not sure I trust it enough to spend a top 6 pick on CEH ahead of more proven players. 

Taking CEH there, he pretty much has to have what, a 1000/600, 60 catch, 10 TD season to be worthy of the pick? Henry is certainly going to be in there yardage-wise & will likely have more TDs. I’m not even sure he’s worth taking over Jacobs. Or Cook or MThomas. Yet he’ll be taken over at least 2 of those dudes. 

But then, if we knew that, he’d be a top 4 pick instead of 6. I still think 1.10-1.12 is where he should be drafted.  Back in the day unproven rookies like CEH would be early to mid 2nd rounders even with a preseason.

Seems like every year the FF community gets more and more desperate to anoint players who could end up top 10 to the point that those players get taken too 10, kinda ruining their upside value.

I’m not saying CRH won’t produce. I’m just saying at 1.06 he MUST produce or he’ll be labelled a bust, even if he puts up a solid RB2 / low end RB1 season because of his cost. 

 

[kittenmittens]

CEH ran slow at the combine.  He has posted faster times than that as a High School kid, and he was in the same weight range. 

I remember an article comparing the top HS kids out of Louisiana and he and Ettiene had very similar combine numbers from the Nike shoe combine.  He's more talented than he's getting credit for. 

 

[Truebluey]

Hype Trains leaving from Narrative Street Station wreck your season.  You literally end up wasting a draft pick on them (and not because of injury, that can happen to anyone).

Yes CEH has people excited, but he is going to get a lot of points on that team. You could make a bad case scenario that he splits reps with Darrel Williams, but it's hard to not see him putting up RB1/high RB2 numbers.  So some folks drafting him early might end up being disappointed.  But it won't wreck their season.

 

[foxco]

See I don't think folks are going crazy over Van Halen.  

Billie Eilis certainly isn't. 

I think dynasty players are licking their chops at Van Jefferson, but that's more of a long term play, don't know that there's much for him fantasy wise this season at least without injury.

 

[I-ROK]

it's hard to not see him putting up RB1/high RB2 numbers.  So some folks drafting him early might end up being disappointed.  But it won't wreck their season.

I agree he finishes as a low end RB1, but that absolutely can wreck your season. If you’re drafting him #5-8 you are expecting him to be the 5-8th highest scorer overall. You’re passing on guys who are safer and who are more likely to finish top 8ish overall. You absolutely can’t whiff on your first round pick, and drafting a RB who scores in the low RB1/High RB2 range is a whiff

Did anyone take Mark Ingram or Chris Carson at #5 last year? Do you think it ruined their season if they did? They finished in the range you’re talking about. 

He will be good, but the hype train has gotten out of control. Seen people taking him over Zeke at 1.03.......

 

[Truebluey]

I agree he finishes as a low end RB1, but that absolutely can wreck your season. If you’re drafting him #5-8 you are expecting him to be the 5-8th highest scorer overall. You’re passing on guys who are safer and who are more likely to finish top 8ish overall. You absolutely can’t whiff on your first round pick, and drafting a RB who scores in the low RB1/High RB2 range is a whiff

Did anyone take Mark Ingram or Chris Carson at #5 last year? Do you think it ruined their season if they did? They finished in the range you’re talking about. 

He will be good, but the hype train has gotten out of control. Seen people taking him over Zeke at 1.03.......

I think we're in agreement that the difference is between a "safer" choice and a riskier pick. Folks choosing CEH early are swinging for the fences.   And we won't know the answer until the end of the season.

What I've learned in over 20 years of FF is that there are really no safe picks. I've had #1 and #2 picks and have done all my homework, looked at all the projections, chosen the safe guy, and watch him have an awfully mediocre season.  The odds might be in your favor, but even 70% odds of being right means you're wrong 3 out of 10 times.

And choosing someone who is a decent contributor in round 1 doesn't have to wreck your season. Our runner-up last year skipped Zeke at #3 because of the contract concerns, took Nuke Hopkins, and took Antonio Brown 2 rounds later.  But by getting value later elsewhere, he had a fine season and overcame 2 bad picks. People stress too much about their picks imo (and, lol, admittedly I am as guilty as the next guy).  

 

[Truebluey]

Billie Eilis certainly isn't. 

I think dynasty players are licking their chops at Van Jefferson, but that's more of a long term play, don't know that there's much for him fantasy wise this season at least without injury.

Agreed, I am hoping to get him in my dynasty startup this weekend. But, damn, there are a lot of fine rookie WRs I like.

 

[boilerdave]

See I don't think folks are going crazy over Van Halen.  He's had a nice camp, people are noticing, but noone (?) is saying he's going to be the savior of your season as we've seen in past years with the Christine Michael truthers, etc.

I had to look up who Van Jefferson was (I guess I’m way more out of touch than I thought I was this season).

Jefferson is a FA in both my leagues (redraft). 

 

[Biabreakable]

I had to look up who Van Jefferson was (I guess I’m way more out of touch than I thought I was this season).

Jefferson is a FA in both my leagues (redraft). 

He should be safe there for week one at least.

He should be on your radar though.

I ranked CEH as the number one rookie shortly after the draft. I wrote a long post about the history of Andy Reid and his RBs being successful in FF long time ago. It took me awhile as his track record is full of goodness. I think part of that is that Reid offenses tend to throw to their RB more than others do. I think the NFL is starting to catch up to Reid in that regard and it may not be as much of an advantage as it was a decade ago. It is still a track record of many many top 12 fantasy seasons for his primary RB.

CEH worries me. He is a one year wonder and I do not think he is as talented as RB who were selected after him in the 2020 NFL draft. I think Taylor, Dobbins and Swift are all better prospects than CEH independent of draft position and fit.

I haven't even considered drafting CEH after I ranked him. Its too rich for my blood and every fff dork with a microphone has been touting this guy. People are bound to be disappointed with him.

 

[Truebluey]

I ranked CEH as the number one rookie shortly after the draft. I wrote a long post about the history of Andy Reid and his RBs being successful in FF long time ago. It took me awhile as his track record is full of goodness. I think part of that is that Reid offenses tend to throw to their RB more than others do. I think the NFL is starting to catch up to Reid in that regard and it may not be as much of an advantage as it was a decade ago. It is still a track record of many many top 12 fantasy seasons for his primary RB.

CEH worries me. He is a one year wonder and I do not think he is as talented as RB who were selected after him in the 2020 NFL draft. I think Taylor, Dobbins and Swift are all better prospects than CEH independent of draft position and fit.

I haven't even considered drafting CEH after I ranked him. Its too rich for my blood and every fff dork with a microphone has been touting this guy. People are bound to be disappointed with him.

I'm very interested in the process which took you from your initial position to your current one?  What changed for you?

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm very interested in the process which took you from your initial position to your current one?  What changed for you?

Nothings changed for me.  That is where I have been at for months now.

As strong as the historical connection with Reid is as well as how good this offense is now it's still about the situation.

I dont think CEH is the most talented RB from the 2020 draft  My opinion about that gets nullified by Reid thinking he was the best RB for his offense and drafting CEH ahead of the other RB.

So I rank CEH 1st while at the same time I am not targeting him for my teams because I do not like the price. I haven't found myself in a situation where I thought hey CEH is a nice value here because he is always gone by then.

 

[Truebluey]

So I rank CEH 1st while at the same time I am not targeting him for my teams because I do not like the price. I haven't found myself in a situation where I thought hey CEH is a nice value here because he is always gone by then.

Gotcha, so you're saying CEH is still the highest rated rookie RB on your redraft board, but in the position you have him, he's always been chosen already?  I have him between Mixon and Sanders, but you probably have him lower than that.

Do you find yourself picking any rookie RBs, finding good value at their current ADP?

 

[TZMarkie]

See I don't think folks are going crazy over Van Halen.  He's had a nice camp, people are noticing, but noone (?) is saying he's going to be the savior of your season as we've seen in past years with the Christine Michael truthers, etc.

 Well... to be fair, he may be Hot for Teacher , but he's certainly not Runnin' With the Devil.

 

 TZM

 

[Biabreakable]

Gotcha, so you're saying CEH is still the highest rated rookie RB on your redraft board, but in the position you have him, he's always been chosen already?  I have him between Mixon and Sanders, but you probably have him lower than that.

Do you find yourself picking any rookie RBs, finding good value at their current ADP?

Well that's the thing is I can get Johnathan Taylor in the 3rd round right now while CEH is going in the 1st round. 

I can actually see Taylor outperforming the cost while CEH I cant.

 

[Deamon]

Antonio Gibson:  Hold the door.

 

[bostonfred]

I dont know about overhyped, but there is no chance I'm paying market price for Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin or Mike Evans in the first couple rounds.  I wouldn't blame anyone for having the guys I like there lower, but those guys all scare me way too much to go that early. 

In the next tier, please feel free to take all of the Todd Gurley, Leveon Bell, Cam Akers, Stefan Diggs, Aj brown group ahead of me. Zero interest. 

Dallas receivers I'll pass on Amari at his price, but I like him the best this year by far.  Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb in redraft? No thanks. I don't have confidence in Dak to put up the numbers for two elite receivers, let alone three fantasy relevant ones... with Mccarthy at the helm... and having to feed zeke... 

And at quarterback, I'll put Josh Allen in his own overrated tier.  He could easily repeat last year's rushing touchdown numbers, if he tries, but if he tries, he's as likely to get hurt as to repeat the touchdowns, and if he does, he's not much ahead of comparable low end qb1s. Think of it like a parlay bet in Vegas - you pay full price for a ticket, you only double your money if you win, but you need to win two bets for it to happen- one that he gets the touchdown opportunities and the other that he stays healthy enough to capitalize on them. No thanks. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Dallas receivers I'll pass on Amari at his price, but I like him the best this year by far.  Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb in redraft? No thanks. I don't have confidence in Dak to put up the numbers for two elite receivers, let alone three fantasy relevant ones... with Mccarthy at the helm... and having to feed zeke... 

I was listening to some interesing analysis of Aaron Rodgers who has had his most successful seasons when the Packers had 3 viable WR to work with under McCarthy.

So I sense some disconnect here that you see McCarthy as a negative?

I think Cede Lamb ends up their 2nd most targeted WR and possibly their number one by the end of the year. I think the Coboys offense thrives from a more wide open attack. 

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I'm detecting some irrational exuberance about James Robinson. 

 

[Deamon]

I dont know about overhyped, but there is no chance I'm paying market price for Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin or Mike Evans in the first couple rounds.  I wouldn't blame anyone for having the guys I like there lower, but those guys all scare me way too much to go that early. 

In the next tier, please feel free to take all of the Todd Gurley, Leveon Bell, Cam Akers, Stefan Diggs, Aj brown group ahead of me. Zero interest. 

Dallas receivers I'll pass on Amari at his price, but I like him the best this year by far.  Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb in redraft? No thanks. I don't have confidence in Dak to put up the numbers for two elite receivers, let alone three fantasy relevant ones... with Mccarthy at the helm... and having to feed zeke... 

And at quarterback, I'll put Josh Allen in his own overrated tier.  He could easily repeat last year's rushing touchdown numbers, if he tries, but if he tries, he's as likely to get hurt as to repeat the touchdowns, and if he does, he's not much ahead of comparable low end qb1s. Think of it like a parlay bet in Vegas - you pay full price for a ticket, you only double your money if you win, but you need to win two bets for it to happen- one that he gets the touchdown opportunities and the other that he stays healthy enough to capitalize on them. No thanks. 

That's a lot of players dude.  None of those are the 'runaway hype trains' that the OP was referencing. 

 

[Deamon]

I think Cede Lamb ends up their 2nd most targeted WR and possibly their number one by the end of the year.

I think Lamb ends up with the 4th most catches on the team by the end of the year.

 

[Iceman03]

I will direct your attention to the hyperbolic Diontae Johnson thread.