Can we shed a little more light on Michael Clayton? (1 Viewer)

[Doug B]

Here are two posts, from the "first waiver claim submitted" thread, that lay out the pros and cons of Bucs' wideout Michael Clayton:

CONS by Couch Potato

Those of you adding Michael Clayton, I just want to let you know that his nice stats were due in large part to Antonio Bryant not being ready. He played some then shut it down. He hadn't practiced much with his QB due to the surgery, had no game time, and was experiencing some discomfort in the knee, so he was limited. That's a temporary thing.

Adding Clayton, whose primary role as WR2 is blocker and decoy, should not happen unless you're dropping an injured guy, a guy who is garbage (and then I ask why you drafted him), or excess PK or DT. I can almost promise you that we have just seen Michael Clayton's best stat line for 2009, and if you drop someone decent for him you'll regret it.

PROS by wudaben

I grabbed Michael Clayton after the waivers ran last night and here was my reasoning...

1) Big athlete, former 1st round draft pick

2) Antonio Bryant's knee is already acting up

3) Tampa Suc##! and will have to play from behind

4) Leftwich is a proven NFL passer, Jimmy Smith still had good value with him back in the day

5) Gruden is gone and Clayton is now out of the doghouse

6) Offensive Coordinator Greg Olsen is a proponent of a passing offense

7) Should be a decent running team to soften up defenses.

Lot's of opportunity there to take a flier on!

I mean, what are we seeing here? Four years of zippo FFB production just weighs too heavily on people's minds? Gruden's influence -- did it make all the difference or not? If Michael Clayton were to break out, would we be seeing it coming? Can Antonio Bryant repeat 2008 and prevent regressing to pre-2008 levels ... and if not, how much can Clayton benefit?

 

[davearm]

I have a very hard time believing this guy's going to come back from years on the FF junkpile to be anything worthwhile.

I'm OK with missing out if I'm wrong, while taking a flyer on any number of other guys with even a little bit of breakout potential that haven't already been a perennial flop.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

A lot of his yardage came on one long hail-maryish deep pass in the waning seconds of the first half. But Clayton did look great sprawling to make the catch. Clayton did benefit because of Bryant's missed snaps in the 2nd half, and Bryant should miss less time as the season goes on. Clayton didn't look especially dynamic or explosive, he was just the #1 receiver when the Bucs were forced to revert to a lot of downfield passing to come back (which, yes they will have to do a lot). I expect them to switch to Freeman by Nov/Dec, and then it will get uglier for Clayton, Bryant, Winslow, etc. I wouldn't go nuts in blind bidding to get him. He could be an ok flex in start 3 WR PPR leagues, and a decent end of the bench guy, but Im not excited about his chances of keeping up this level of production.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I am adding. I think "zippo" is too harsh. He is not Chad Jackson. He was on the field. He did log catches. He averaged 6.6 points per game last year PPR in the 14 games he was active. TB has no one else.

If you're comparing him against other dynasty adds like Laurent Robinson, Legedu Naanee, Mike Wallace, he has much more potential to help you right away.

 

[basher]

its was a boring George Clooney movie .... wait what?

 

[rawdog]

The fact that Bryant's knee is already bugging hm makes me think kast year will be an anomaly. Clayton could be #1 there by default. There's nobody else. Coach LOVES him.

http://www.pewterreport.com/articles/view/5901

 

[gump]

Don't forget about Sammie Strougther.

 

[rawdog]

Sammie=slot guy

 

[zamboni]

I agree it's very hard to figure out Clayton.

We all know the tremendous year he had as a rookie, with the venerable Brian Griese at QB. So we know he's got skills. But even with the doghouse days of the last 4 years, he still managed to do nothing except serve as a big-time blocker.

I guess all things considered, with a coach that loves him (like Chucky did in the early days) and the contract in the offseason, Clayton is worth a flier but I would temper expectations.

 

[pollardsvision]

From listening to Morris talk about him in the pre-season, I think it makes sense to take him seriously. Morris loves him, so he'll get every opportunity.

 

[bostonfred]

Clayton was targetted 61 times last year, and caught 38 passes for 484 yards and a touchdown. He caught 62.3% of his targets.

Bryant was targetted 137 times last year, and caught 83 passes for 1248 yards and 7 TDs. He caught 60.6% of his targets.

It's hard to say it was Clayton's fault that he didn't catch 80 balls when they only threw 60 to him. The real question is why they only threw 61 passes in his direction. I think that's more a question of scheme than anything Clayton specifically did wrong. Looking at his catch % by year:

In 2008, Clayton outcaught Bryant 62 to 61%, while Hilliard caught 81%.

In 2007, Galloway outcaught Clayton 58 to 55%, while Hilliard caught 71%.

In 2006, Clayton outcaught Galloway 51 to 44%, while Hilliard caught 62%.

In 2005, Clayton outcaught Galloway 58 to 55%, while Hilliard caught 65%.

In 2004, Clayton outcaught Galloway 69 to 67%, while Jurevicius caught 75%.

So basically, Clayton has done better at catching the ball than the team's leading receiver every year but one, but not as well as the slot guy. It's not that Clayton can't catch the ball, it's that they weren't throwing it to him.

In one game, with Bryant gimpy, he had 8 targets, and caught 5 of them (62.5%). That's pretty much in line with his career numbers. He caught them for an 18 YPC average. That's higher than his normal YPR, which is closer to 13.

If he continued to get those 8 targets per game, and catch 5 of them on average, for about 13 YPR, then he'd end up with 80 catches for 1000-1100 yards. The question is, will Clayton continue to get those targets? If Bryant continues to have trouble recovering from offseason knee surgery - and leaving midway through a game seems to suggest that's a possibility - then that opens up the possibility. If he just looks good this year - new coach, new QB, new work ethic - that also opens up the possibility.

There are no certainties here, but if I had to guess, I'd say there's about a 1 in 3 chance of him becoming a legit WR2. I'd love him as a handcuff to Bryant or as a WR5/6, but I wouldn't drop someone who has a better chance than he does.

 

[Doug B]

There are no certainties here, but if I had to guess, I'd say there's about a 1 in 3 chance of him becoming a legit WR2. I'd love him as a handcuff to Bryant or as a WR5/6, but I wouldn't drop someone who has a better chance than he does.

Like Kenny Britt? Good info, bostonfred

 

[wudaben]

If I'm looking for a free agent receiver who could possibly pull a Roddy White, based on the opportunity and circumstances involved, I'd take a flier on Clayton! Let's remember after that first bust out season that he had a couple knee injuries plus was still behind Galloway on a team that really wasn't going to air the ball out that much. The circumstances and the people around him this time are all in his favor.

 

[Osaurus]

This guy got the nickname "cement hands" for a reason

 

[gump]

Great analysis Fred.

It's not that Clayton can't catch the ball, it's that they weren't throwing it to him.

However, I would point out that Clayton has had this very well-deserved reputation locally for several years. He HASN'T been catching the ball. And usually his drops are at very inopportune times.The other knock locally on MC was that he got fat and happy after his big rookie year. Literally, he was so out of shape that he suddenly couldn't separate from anyone.He seems to be in better shape and more focused now. His teammates attitude toward him show that. And maybe he'll quit dropping the ball. And I know in Fantasy you need to have foresight. But there is no way I'd risk much on him if anything, and I bet most Buc fans would agree.

 

[SSOG]

Don't forget about Sammie Strougther.

He didn't beat out Clayton during TCs or preseason; he won't beat out Clayton during the season.Clayton looked very good out there on Sunday, and most importantly, Leftwich showed a very high level of trust in him, threading some balls into some very tight windows. I think he's a nice high-upside play.

 

[damageinc]

I would advise him as a pickup. might be there #1 at times this year.

Jim Flynn, of PewterReport.com, reports Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Antonio Bryant (knee) is not participating in practice Wednesday, Sept. 16.

Our view: This could be a recurring story throughout the year. The Bucs are going to be super careful with Bryant each week, and may limit his practice time so as not to re-aggravate his knee injury.

 

[gump]

Don't forget about Sammie Strougther.

He didn't beat out Clayton during TCs or preseason; he won't beat out Clayton during the season.

I mentioned SS because he was not listed by posters describing pass distro. He is also a rookie that everyone loved in preseason, and had 5 targets in week 1.

 

[SSOG]

Don't forget about Sammie Strougther.

He didn't beat out Clayton during TCs or preseason; he won't beat out Clayton during the season.

I mentioned SS because he was not listed by posters describing pass distro. He is also a rookie that everyone loved in preseason, and had 5 targets in week 1.

I like Stroughter long-term, but I have a hard time seeing him eating a significant enough portion of the looks to noticeably impact Clayton or Bryant's value. Every team has a WR3. Every team throws to its WR3. I don't think Tampa will do so at a rate disproportionate to the rest of the league.

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

I believe Clayton attended the WR summer camp hosted by Fitz with Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, etc. Maybe he learned a few things and might be able to approach his rookie output?

 

[SSOG]

I believe Clayton attended the WR summer camp hosted by Fitz with Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, etc. Maybe he learned a few things and might be able to approach his rookie output?

I'm always skeptical about what someone can really learn from former greats. Could you imagine going to a WR camp put on by Randy Moss? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to be faster and taller than anyone covering you, with the ability to leap higher than anyone in the league and an uncanny knack for tracking the ball in flight and snatching it at the highest point of your jump 100 times out of 100". Or a camp put on by Jerry Rice? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to have the type of personality where you're so driven to succeed that you will work longer and harder towards a single purpose than any other human being on the entire planet". Larry Fitzgerald? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to have the most incredible hand-eye coordination and visual recognition possibly in all of human history".I question what someone like Fitz, Rice, or Carter could teach Clayton that his position coach couldn't teach him even better.

 

[Knobs]

I think his value is really going to be tied to Bryant. If Bryant get healthy, I can't imagine Clayton getting enough scraps to be relevant. If Bryant stays hurt, Clayton would be the number one wr if only by default but he could be a great number two fantasy option in that scenario.

For me, I'd rather gamble on a guy that has a chance to be the number one option than a lot of other scrubs. I'm trying to decide between him and Laurent.

 

[zamboni]

I think his value is really going to be tied to Bryant. If Bryant get healthy, I can't imagine Clayton getting enough scraps to be relevant.

Can we say this for sure though?Before Bryant's renaissance year, he was pretty much a forgotten entity like Clayton himself. Now there's a new coaching regime and new QB in town. Sure, Bryant has the franchise tag that will ensure that he will be a major part of the offense, but that doesn't ensure that he will continue his newfound success from last year.I'm not saying that Clayton has what it takes to overcome a healthy Bryant as the primary WR, but there are a lot more moving parts now that Gruden is gone.

 

[bucsbaby]

Clayton was targetted often week 1. After watching the last few years of Bucs football, I have to say that the scheme severely hampered Clayton's upside. I won't say Clayton walks on water, he has to play better, work harder too. But, if he is rededicated and the scheme continues to move more toward a downfield passing game, then I see no reason why we can't expect Clayton's upside to go, well, up.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I believe Clayton attended the WR summer camp hosted by Fitz with Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, etc. Maybe he learned a few things and might be able to approach his rookie output?

I'm always skeptical about what someone can really learn from former greats. Could you imagine going to a WR camp put on by Randy Moss? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to be faster and taller than anyone covering you, with the ability to leap higher than anyone in the league and an uncanny knack for tracking the ball in flight and snatching it at the highest point of your jump 100 times out of 100". Or a camp put on by Jerry Rice? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to have the type of personality where you're so driven to succeed that you will work longer and harder towards a single purpose than any other human being on the entire planet". Larry Fitzgerald? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to have the most incredible hand-eye coordination and visual recognition possibly in all of human history".I question what someone like Fitz, Rice, or Carter could teach Clayton that his position coach couldn't teach him even better.

I agree, but it did at least show a commitment to improving his game that has been lacking (got fat and lazy) during the past few seasons.

 

[Saints-Man]

...In 2008, Clayton outcaught Bryant 62 to 61%, while Hilliard caught 81%.In 2007, Galloway outcaught Clayton 58 to 55%, while Hilliard caught 71%. In 2006, Clayton outcaught Galloway 51 to 44%, while Hilliard caught 62%. In 2005, Clayton outcaught Galloway 58 to 55%, while Hilliard caught 65%.In 2004, Clayton outcaught Galloway 69 to 67%, while Jurevicius caught 75%....

Good analysis, bf. From where do you get these stats, btw?

 

[Doug B]

Thanks for the input, everyone. Lots of new (to me, anyway) info in here.

 

[bostonfred]

...In 2008, Clayton outcaught Bryant 62 to 61%, while Hilliard caught 81%.In 2007, Galloway outcaught Clayton 58 to 55%, while Hilliard caught 71%. In 2006, Clayton outcaught Galloway 51 to 44%, while Hilliard caught 62%. In 2005, Clayton outcaught Galloway 58 to 55%, while Hilliard caught 65%.In 2004, Clayton outcaught Galloway 69 to 67%, while Jurevicius caught 75%....

Good analysis, bf. From where do you get these stats, btw?

Here at FBG. You can go off their player pages, or look at stats filtering by team and year. FWIW, I don't mean to say that catch % is useful in a vacuum. You have to look at their role - for example, Hilliard was acting more as a slot receiver and usually had fewer targets than the other receivers - and things like YPC - for example, a deep receivers should have a lower catch % than their peer. So we should look at Clayton beating Galloway's numbers with a grain of salt. But it's useful to note that Clayton's catch % did drop off from his rookie season (which follows Gump's point that he looked fat and lazy his sophomore year) and that he's still been pretty decent in spite of that fact, it's just that he's had limited targets. So if you think those targets go up this year, then it's very possible to see a resurgence.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I believe Clayton attended the WR summer camp hosted by Fitz with Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, etc. Maybe he learned a few things and might be able to approach his rookie output?

I'm always skeptical about what someone can really learn from former greats. Could you imagine going to a WR camp put on by Randy Moss? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to be faster and taller than anyone covering you, with the ability to leap higher than anyone in the league and an uncanny knack for tracking the ball in flight and snatching it at the highest point of your jump 100 times out of 100". Or a camp put on by Jerry Rice? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to have the type of personality where you're so driven to succeed that you will work longer and harder towards a single purpose than any other human being on the entire planet". Larry Fitzgerald? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to have the most incredible hand-eye coordination and visual recognition possibly in all of human history".I question what someone like Fitz, Rice, or Carter could teach Clayton that his position coach couldn't teach him even better.

I think this is misguided. I can agree that great players can get frustrated as coaches when working with inferior talent WHEN they are being paid to coach in an organization/teamlike setting. That said, this doesn't seem to rear it's head as much in football versus other sports.However, more to the point, none of the players you mentioned attained their status and high levels of performance without a dedication and attention to the fundamentals of the position. There are techniques related to separation and route running that while subtle are extremely important to the success a WR can have. Those that put in the time and are open to fine tuning their abilities have a better chance at improving their performance.When you say a position coach can do the same thing, realize that a position coach is an employee of the team just like the player is. Just because aonmeone is a WR coach, doesn't mean they all teach from the same text book. And in these work conditions, it's possible that the student and teacher don't see eye to eye.But if a player seeks out a Fitzgerald or Rice, they are doing that on their own time with the knowledge that who they are going to have reached the pinnacle of their profession. If they don't have an open mind to learn from them, then that's on the player seeking counsel. While there exists some god-given gifts that the players you mentioned (Fitz, Carter, Rice) have, there are many who have been given those gifts that have flamed out and we don't hear of again.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Clayton was targetted 61 times last year, and caught 38 passes for 484 yards and a touchdown. He caught 62.3% of his targets.Bryant was targetted 137 times last year, and caught 83 passes for 1248 yards and 7 TDs. He caught 60.6% of his targets. It's hard to say it was Clayton's fault that he didn't catch 80 balls when they only threw 60 to him. The real question is why they only threw 61 passes in his direction. I think that's more a question of scheme than anything Clayton specifically did wrong. Looking at his catch % by year:In 2008, Clayton outcaught Bryant 62 to 61%, while Hilliard caught 81%.In 2007, Galloway outcaught Clayton 58 to 55%, while Hilliard caught 71%. In 2006, Clayton outcaught Galloway 51 to 44%, while Hilliard caught 62%. In 2005, Clayton outcaught Galloway 58 to 55%, while Hilliard caught 65%.In 2004, Clayton outcaught Galloway 69 to 67%, while Jurevicius caught 75%.So basically, Clayton has done better at catching the ball than the team's leading receiver every year but one, but not as well as the slot guy. It's not that Clayton can't catch the ball, it's that they weren't throwing it to him. In one game, with Bryant gimpy, he had 8 targets, and caught 5 of them (62.5%). That's pretty much in line with his career numbers. He caught them for an 18 YPC average. That's higher than his normal YPR, which is closer to 13. If he continued to get those 8 targets per game, and catch 5 of them on average, for about 13 YPR, then he'd end up with 80 catches for 1000-1100 yards. The question is, will Clayton continue to get those targets? If Bryant continues to have trouble recovering from offseason knee surgery - and leaving midway through a game seems to suggest that's a possibility - then that opens up the possibility. If he just looks good this year - new coach, new QB, new work ethic - that also opens up the possibility. There are no certainties here, but if I had to guess, I'd say there's about a 1 in 3 chance of him becoming a legit WR2. I'd love him as a handcuff to Bryant or as a WR5/6, but I wouldn't drop someone who has a better chance than he does.

I think what your stats show is that he was outclassed by both Galloway and Bryant. I'd expect that to resume if Bryant's knee corrects.Here's the thing about the doghouse theory (not advanced by bostonfred though I quote him). If he was that much in Gruden's doghouse, he wouldn't have played. I think it's crazy to believe that Gruden would start him and allow some passes to go to him yet orchestrate it so that he got WR2 targets instead of WR1 targets. Think about how crazy that is. There's just not enough upside for Gruden or any coach to micromanage plays in that manner even if they could....especially since Gruden is jobless because he wasn't winning enough. And if that were going on, why hasn't Garcia said anything? Not because he's known for keeping his mouth shut and not because he loves Gruden. As good a check-down guy as Garcia is, if Clayton were getting open more often than Bryant, Garcia would have found him and he would have gotten more targets.I agree strongly with bostonfred's theory of using him as a handcuff to Bryant. He seems to be the prime beneficiary of a Bryant injury. As high as some people had to take Bryant this year, I think it makes sense. The other guys in this tier are just as hit and miss and won't see their opportunities increase if Bryant remains gimpy.

 

[zamboni]

People will point to Bryant being franchised, but don't forget that Clayton got a pretty sizable contract in the offseason despite the meaningful stat dropoff the last few years. I can't imagine it was just due to his acumen at downfield blocking.

 

[bostonfred]

I believe Clayton attended the WR summer camp hosted by Fitz with Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, etc. Maybe he learned a few things and might be able to approach his rookie output?

I'm always skeptical about what someone can really learn from former greats. Could you imagine going to a WR camp put on by Randy Moss? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to be faster and taller than anyone covering you, with the ability to leap higher than anyone in the league and an uncanny knack for tracking the ball in flight and snatching it at the highest point of your jump 100 times out of 100". Or a camp put on by Jerry Rice? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to have the type of personality where you're so driven to succeed that you will work longer and harder towards a single purpose than any other human being on the entire planet". Larry Fitzgerald? "Alright, all you have to do to be the best WR in the league is to have the most incredible hand-eye coordination and visual recognition possibly in all of human history".I question what someone like Fitz, Rice, or Carter could teach Clayton that his position coach couldn't teach him even better.

I sort of agree with this. I don't think they can teach anything that the receivers coaches can't. But remember that teams are limited in the time they can spend coaching their players. When you have a player who clearly showed talent his rookie season, but seemed to tail off afterwards, it's good to see them work harder going into the year. It's also a lead by example kind of thing. When your boss tells you to work hard, you work hard enough to get the carrot or avoid the stick. When your peers show you how to work hard, and talk about why you do these things, it may sink in a little more. And it's always good to get another set of eyes on your work. Maybe they notice something that your coach might not. Have you ever noticed that your peers at work know your job better than your boss does?

 

[TwinTurbo]

I watched the game and Clayton looked good. He made some nice catches and looked strong although not very fast. He did make a great catch over the middle and got lit up by the safety. Big hit. He got right back up and the safety didn't. That impressed me. He played like a poor man's Hines Ward.

 

[zamboni]

Bryant not practicing today (Thursday) per KFFL.

 

[rawdog]

Yep. To elaborate.

Antonio Bryant-WR- Buccaneers Sep. 17 - 12:10 pm et

Antonio Bryant (knee) was held out of Thursday's practice.

Bryant pulled himself out of Sunday's game and missed Wednesday's practice. His surgically repaired knee is clearly not close to 100 percent. Keep him benched until he proves his health.

Source: Pewter Report