Can we talk about people taking K & D/ST earlier and earlier? (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ve been drafting NFFC guillotine & Rotowire online championship teams for a couple weeks now. 2 & 2 so far. Have 1 more of the latter to go.

And time and time again, out of a 20 or 16 Round draft, teams are taking the Ravens & Cowboys D/ST around the 9-10 turn, and J.Tucker goes shortly after.

It usually starts a run, and 5-7 D/ST are taken, and a smattering of kickers in the next 2 rounds. In tonight’s 17 team BB, team 2 took a K ~> D/ST before their 3rd WR. There were 11 defenses off the board before the 11th round. And 4 kickers.

Who’s out here in these streets drafting kickers in the 8th-9th round?!

Now I don’t mean to be harsh, but it’s 2024. There are approximately eleventy kagillion draft strategy articles online, and I’m reasonably certain that every single damn one of them will tell you to DO NOT DO THIS.

The statistical difference between the best kicker and the 17th best kicker is like, 1.x points per game. The difference between the WR you pass up to take that kicker and the one that makes it back to you in ~30 picks is very likely to be significantly more than that.

I mean, don’t get me wrong - if there are 4 picks between me & my RB3 draft target, I love nothing more than seeing a big run on K & D/ST.

But especially in a Guillotine format where rosters dump to the FA pool every week, why take a K or D/ST that high?

Or take 2 K, or 3 D/ST as a couple teams did?

Have we not evolved as a society? Is there some YouTuber advising people to reach for kickers and defenses?

I’ve now seen it in every online draft I’ve done. Mystifying.

 

[Scoresman]

I wanted to make a similar thread. If people are doing this in high stakes leagues with regularity, it can’t just be a guppy thing.

 

[Ray_T]

I’ve been drafting NFFC guillotine & Rotowire online championship teams for a couple weeks now. 2 & 2 so far. Have 1 more of the latter to go.

And time and time again, out of a 20 or 16 Round draft, teams are taking the Ravens & Cowboys D/ST around the 9-10 turn, and J.Tucker goes shortly after.

It usually starts a run, and 5-7 D/ST are taken, and a smattering of kickers in the next 2 rounds. In tonight’s 17 team BB, team 2 took a K ~> D/ST before their 3rd WR. There were 11 defenses off the board before the 11th round. And 4 kickers.

Who’s out here in these streets drafting kickers in the 8th-9th round?!

Now I don’t mean to be harsh, but it’s 2024. There are approximately eleventy kagillion draft strategy articles online, and I’m reasonably certain that every single damn one of them will tell you to DO NOT DO THIS.

The statistical difference between the best kicker and the 17th best kicker is like, 1.x points per game. The difference between the WR you pass up to take that kicker and the one that makes it back to you in ~30 picks is very likely to be significantly more than that.

I mean, don’t get me wrong - if there are 4 picks between me & my RB3 draft target, I love nothing more than seeing a big run on K & D/ST.

But especially in a Guillotine format where rosters dump to the FA pool every week, why take a K or D/ST that high?

Or take 2 K, or 3 D/ST as a couple teams did?

Have we not evolved as a society? Is there some YouTuber advising people to reach for kickers and defenses?

I’ve now seen it in every online draft I’ve done. Mystifying.

I understand the theory behind it.

not sure I agree with taking a Defense prior to round 10 but I also agree there is no point taking one in the second last round either.

I experimented with taking a Defense early and actually found some success with it so I continue to do so when it makes sense.

if drafting in a deeper draft it makes no sense to draft backups for your backup ahead of a team defense that actually affects your bottom line. if the best player on the board is unlikely to ever see the field for your team unless a huge breakout occurs or one or more of your guys gets hurt, why not draft the top defense on the board and give your team a 2 or 3 point advantage every night?

It's really that simple.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The statistical difference between the best kicker and the 17th best kicker is like, 1.x points per game. The difference between the WR you pass up to take that kicker and the one that makes it back to you in ~30 picks is very likely to be significantly more than that.

In my pretty standard scoring league, the difference between K1 and K17 was 2.5ppg. That's the difference between Justin Jefferson and Michael Pittman, or the difference between Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. So a pretty substantial difference.

The problem with kickers and defenses isn't that they can provide a substantial scoring advantage when you have a top one. The problem is that the top ones vary super wildly from year to year, so you're unlikely to nail a top one in the draft even if you use an earlier pick on one.

A guy like Justin Tucker might be an exception to that, though.

Personally I think the play is to trade for them in-season once we know who the top ones are for this year. It's a lot cheaper to trade for Brandon Aubrey when he's leading all kickers than it is to try and upgrade Michael Pittman to Justin Jefferson via trade.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wanted to make a similar thread. If people are doing this in high stakes leagues with regularity, it can’t just be a guppy thing.

That’s what got me to thinking that maybe there’s some buzz going around about a new-fangled “embrace being the guppy” theory or something. lol

I cannot for the life of me figure it out. $350 league & you’re taking Justin Tucker in the single digits?! For that price he’d best be coming over to my house to give me a tender foot massage after the game.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ve been drafting NFFC guillotine & Rotowire online championship teams for a couple weeks now. 2 & 2 so far. Have 1 more of the latter to go.

And time and time again, out of a 20 or 16 Round draft, teams are taking the Ravens & Cowboys D/ST around the 9-10 turn, and J.Tucker goes shortly after.

It usually starts a run, and 5-7 D/ST are taken, and a smattering of kickers in the next 2 rounds. In tonight’s 17 team BB, team 2 took a K ~> D/ST before their 3rd WR. There were 11 defenses off the board before the 11th round. And 4 kickers.

Who’s out here in these streets drafting kickers in the 8th-9th round?!

Now I don’t mean to be harsh, but it’s 2024. There are approximately eleventy kagillion draft strategy articles online, and I’m reasonably certain that every single damn one of them will tell you to DO NOT DO THIS.

The statistical difference between the best kicker and the 17th best kicker is like, 1.x points per game. The difference between the WR you pass up to take that kicker and the one that makes it back to you in ~30 picks is very likely to be significantly more than that.

I mean, don’t get me wrong - if there are 4 picks between me & my RB3 draft target, I love nothing more than seeing a big run on K & D/ST.

But especially in a Guillotine format where rosters dump to the FA pool every week, why take a K or D/ST that high?

Or take 2 K, or 3 D/ST as a couple teams did?

Have we not evolved as a society? Is there some YouTuber advising people to reach for kickers and defenses?

I’ve now seen it in every online draft I’ve done. Mystifying.

I understand the theory behind it.

not sure I agree with taking a Defense prior to round 10 but I also agree there is no point taking one in the second last round either.

I experimented with taking a Defense early and actually found some success with it so I continue to do so when it makes sense.

if drafting in a deeper draft it makes no sense to draft backups for your backup ahead of a team defense that actually affects your bottom line. if the best player on the board is unlikely to ever see the field for your team unless a huge breakout occurs or one or more of your guys gets hurt, why not draft the top defense on the board and give your team a 2 or 3 point advantage every night?

It's really that simple.

Or, you could add/drop all year and play the matchups. Or pick a d/st in the 16/20 or 13/16,

You don’t need to wait for the last round, no. I choose to do that. but it seems insane to take either position before the 14th-ish to me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The statistical difference between the best kicker and the 17th best kicker is like, 1.x points per game. The difference between the WR you pass up to take that kicker and the one that makes it back to you in ~30 picks is very likely to be significantly more than that.

In my pretty standard scoring league, the difference between K1 and K17 was 2.5ppg. That's the difference between Justin Jefferson and Michael Pittman, or the difference between Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. So a pretty substantial difference.

The problem with kickers and defenses isn't that they can provide a substantial scoring advantage when you have a top one. The problem is that the top ones vary super wildly from year to year, so you're unlikely to nail a top one in the draft even if you use an earlier pick on one.

A guy like Justin Tucker might be an exception to that, though.

Personally I think the play is to trade for them in-season once we know who the top ones are for this year. It's a lot cheaper to trade for Brandon Aubrey when he's leading all kickers than it is to try an upgrade Michael Pittman to Justin Jefferson via trade.

That’s fair. There’s also a lot more to kickers than being good at football - the environmental aspect might be most significant for them, and that varies week to week.

Tucker is amazing. Baltimore weather in November isn’t. lol Just saying, high winds, rain, snow, etc

And totally agreed that outside Tucker, it can be a total crap shoot year to year.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The statistical difference between the best kicker and the 17th best kicker is like, 1.x points per game. The difference between the WR you pass up to take that kicker and the one that makes it back to you in ~30 picks is very likely to be significantly more than that.

In my pretty standard scoring league, the difference between K1 and K17 was 2.5ppg. That's the difference between Justin Jefferson and Michael Pittman, or the difference between Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. So a pretty substantial difference.

The problem with kickers and defenses isn't that they can provide a substantial scoring advantage when you have a top one. The problem is that the top ones vary super wildly from year to year, so you're unlikely to nail a top one in the draft even if you use an earlier pick on one.

A guy like Justin Tucker might be an exception to that, though.

Personally I think the play is to trade for them in-season once we know who the top ones are for this year. It's a lot cheaper to trade for Brandon Aubrey when he's leading all kickers than it is to try an upgrade Michael Pittman to Justin Jefferson via trade.

That’s fair. There’s also a lot more to kickers than being good at football - the environmental aspect might be most significant for them, and that varies week to week.

Tucker is amazing. Baltimore weather in November isn’t. lol Just saying, high winds, rain, snow, etc

And totally agreed that outside Tucker, it can be a total crap shoot year to year.

Guess who the #1 kicker was last year from November through the end of the season?

Hint: His name rhymes with ****er

 

[Chaos34]

Here's what I think you're seeing. Some of us have such different targets in the last two or three rounds we don't sweat nailing the best value, because nobody is sniping our targets.

For example, I think Jonnu Smith is possibly a smart TE2, but he's not regularly drafted in standard Yahoo and Sleeper leagues. Dortch has had significant camp buzz and I'm targeting him in the last round like I did Tank Dell many times last season. Others were taking Nacua making me regret Tank. So I feel free to step up at D and K before the last couple rounds. Additionally I have some other targets that fall into wide adp spreads allowing me a "free pick" even sooner. I like having the Ravens D with a week 14 bye. Set it forget it. Justin Tucker does the same. Fairbairn too. If I don't reach a little someone else will. I started doing this last season just because I wanted the Cowboys D. So I reached. It was an FBG Free For All League. There was laughter. I had the 2nd highest scoring team and just missed the championship. I like doing this now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Guess who the #1 kicker was last year from November through the end of the season?

Oh I know. Tucker isn’t human.

But one year he might be. Ya just never know with kickers year to year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Here's what I think you're seeing. Some of us have such different targets in the last two or three rounds we don't sweat nailing the best value, because nobody is sniping our targets.

For example, I think Jonnu Smith is possibly a smart TE2, but he's not regularly drafted in standard Yahoo and Sleeper leagues. Dortch has had significant camp buzz and I'm targeting him in the last round like I did Tank Dell many times last season. Others were taking Nacua making me regret Tank. So I feel free to step up at D and K before the last couple rounds. Additionally I have some other targets that fall into wide adp spreads allowing me a "free pick" even sooner. I like having the Ravens D with a week 14 bye. Set it forget it. Justin Tucker does the same. Fairbairn too. If I don't reach a little someone else will. I started doing this last season just because I wanted the Cowboys D. So I reached. It was an FBG Free For All League. There was laughter. I had the 2nd highest scoring team and just missed the championship. I like doing this now.

Oh I get that. And I agree.

But again, I’m not talking about round 13/16 or 17 of 20. I totally understand doing that, getting a slightly better k & d, then sniping late value. 100% valid.

But 8/20? 9/16?

That seems wildly irresponsible to me.

 

[Chaos34]

Here's what I think you're seeing. Some of us have such different targets in the last two or three rounds we don't sweat nailing the best value, because nobody is sniping our targets.

For example, I think Jonnu Smith is possibly a smart TE2, but he's not regularly drafted in standard Yahoo and Sleeper leagues. Dortch has had significant camp buzz and I'm targeting him in the last round like I did Tank Dell many times last season. Others were taking Nacua making me regret Tank. So I feel free to step up at D and K before the last couple rounds. Additionally I have some other targets that fall into wide adp spreads allowing me a "free pick" even sooner. I like having the Ravens D with a week 14 bye. Set it forget it. Justin Tucker does the same. Fairbairn too. If I don't reach a little someone else will. I started doing this last season just because I wanted the Cowboys D. So I reached. It was an FBG Free For All League. There was laughter. I had the 2nd highest scoring team and just missed the championship. I like doing this now.

Oh I get that. And I agree.

But again, I’m not talking about round 13/16 or 17 of 20. I totally understand doing that, getting a slightly better k & d, then sniping late value. 100% valid.

But 8/20? 9/16?

That seems wildly irresponsible to me.

I haven't felt comfortable earlier than the 11th. My next target looked safe through the 12th, so I took the Ravens and got my guy and the set it forget D. Also someone had taken the 9ers and I felt like it was time to reach for D. It's not unreasonable to see the same thing happen earlier. Also, I don't know where you're seeing this but Yahoo's running list starts recommending Ds in the 8th and they will be autodrafted if you need to pee or the person drafting isn't there.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I haven't felt comfortable earlier than the 11th. My next target looked safe through the 12th, so I took the Ravens and got my guy and the set it forget D. Also someone had taken the 9ers and I felt like it was time to reach for D. It's not unreasonable to see the same thing happen earlier. Also, I don't know where you're seeing this but Yahoo's running list starts recommending Ds in the 8th and they will be autodrafted if you need to pee or the person drafting isn't there.

The only live drafts I’ve done (4) are NFFC.

That’s wild that Yahoo will recommend them that early. Likely because the default is sort by “projected points” on an “all” tab.

Which would be a silly reason to draft a D/ST if one only has 2 WR on a roster in a guillotine league, as in my example above.

 

[Runkle]

If there are distance bonuses (3 pts for 30 yarders, 4 pts for 40 yarders, etc.), a Brandon Aubrey could break the league. Worth paying up for.

 

[Down Under]

If there are distance bonuses (3 pts for 30 yarders, 4 pts for 40 yarders, etc.), a Brandon Aubrey could break the league. Worth paying up for.

He did for me last year...I consider that a once in a lifetime hit though. Picked him up after week 2 in 6 of 8 leagues and traded for him in another. Look for the hot, accurate ones at the beginning of the year.

 

[Soulfly3]

Tucker is a cheat code. I never get him cuz someone always nabs him early.... Maybe this year I reach and reach hard

 

[TartanLion]

I never draft either in my re-draft league. Always take extra RB/WRs and wait until just before week 1 to see if any additional info on any players I’ve drafted crops up, then make my final decision on which two I will cut for a K and D. There are always always surprises at D and K position every season, and by being alert you can always end up with a good option

EG took Braelon Allen in the 15th round last night. Breece Hall could slip on a banana skin next week in training heaven forbid.

 

[FarFromHome]

Why u wait on a kicker really comes down to math. Scoring can vary a little, but last year's difference between the #2 scoring kicker and the #12 scoring kicker was 14 total points. Less then 1 pt per game.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

The kicking game is changing before our eyes. Back in the day, anything over 50 yards was insane. Now, guys like Tucker are booting 60 yarders with regularity. With (often) bonuses for long kicks, these guys are having more of a fantasy impact.

 

[Rubi]

Maybe it's part of the zag when others are zigging thinking.
Or..."Don't be a part of a run...start one"
Or...My draft sucks so I'm at least going to get the top rated "players" at these positions.

 

[pinkstapler]

Thankfully I've gotten kickers out of all my leagues. Unfortunately we still have D/ST, and even the standard scoring for this can be pretty wild. I wound up taking one in round 12 of a 17 round draft this weekend primarily because the players left in my queue were all about 15+ picks away so I felt safe my next guys would make it back to me; but also having a top 2-3 defense does seem like a significant advantage over the rest of the pack.

Also, I hate having to play the streaming game. It just adds a lot of time to my weekly waivers looking at matchups and wasting FAAB I could be using to grab a real piece instead to get a mediocre defense who is playing a bottom rung offense and could still only net me 5-6 points. Meanwhile the Cowboys and 49ers are getting 7 sacks, 3 picks with a pick 6, and held the opposing team to 9 so they scored as much as a top 10WR that week. I despise it, but if I'm forced to use them, I want a top unit. If my roster is filling out nicely in a draft, and I've I hit a value gap where it makes sense, I'll grab a top defense knowing they can break a week open for me.

 

[kyoun1e]

Since I am in the camp of dropping my kicker on a weekly basis to make room for pickups, I certainly will not be drafting a kicker until the last round.

On D, a bit different. I'm finding I'm taking the Cinci D (NE week 1) and also the SEA D (NE week 2) if I can. I wouldn't mind grabbing the NYJ D a bit early too because after the SF matchup in week 1 they have 3 cupcakes in a row. That D, now with a lefit offense, is going to be a wrecking ball.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Once I've out kicked and distanced myself from the herd in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th-5th-6th-7th-8th and 9th...I've got 7 WRs and RBs plus a TE and maybe even my QB1, why not continue the bloodbath and take the top Kicker and Def/ST if I think they will help me win? (half kidding)

-I enjoy flipping defenses and match ups every week, kickers do tend to drive me nuts. It seems like about 6-8 teams always have their kicker nailed down outside of a lonely bye week
The Lions kicker is getting a few extra in door games on the road, Miami will score a lot, Sanders is usually sitting around after 6-8-10 are off the board, Elliott for Philly is usually value.
But why not take Tucker from the Ravens and not even have to worry about it?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I (probably) wouldn't take a K/D as early as the 8th or 9th, but I have given up on waiting until the last round for those positions. Once I have my starting lineup in place and a couple of solid backups / upside picks through the first 10 rounds or whatever, I find it increasingly hard to justify taking a flier on some RB/WR who a) will probably never see my starting lineup unless something bad happens and b) will probably still be there next round anyway (or at least is in a tier with a dozen other guys I like just as much), as opposed to just getting ahead of the pack and taking the K and/or D I'll enjoy starting.

Sure VBD might say that the dropoff from that 11th round RB to the one available later might be bigger than the drop off in kickers but once you get out of your starting lineup I think that's where the math starts to break down. If I don't get this RB who I have projected to score 6 points a week I might get stuck with a worse RB I have projected for 3 points a week? Don't care. Is that guy going to help my starting lineup as much as plugging in Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker every week? Probably not. If all goes well I'm never going to start either one of those RBs anyway, and if all doesn't go well those guys probably aren't saving me. I'll take the K and D I like and grab all my late-round fliers afterwards.

 

[Chardo1]

Our first draft, in 1984, had a kicker taken in the first round. Owner figured that kickers score the most so he should start with a kicker.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If there are distance bonuses (3 pts for 30 yarders, 4 pts for 40 yarders, etc.), a Brandon Aubrey could break the league. Worth paying up for.

Except it’s not the Aubrey rule - every kicker gets the same scoring.

And it’s so random - you never know what will happen year to year.

That said I love Aubrey. In 3 dynasty leagues, only 2 require kickers. In those two 16 team leagues I drafted Aubrey in both (and moody) - he’s reliable.

But the team that took Tucker did so before they had a 3rd WR. And also a defense before they had a 3rd WR. In a PPR 3 WR + flex format. Seems crazy.

Needless to say, their build suffered for it. And no such tawdry bonuses exist in the NFFC. It’s .5 for ever yard after 30. A 40 yard FG is 3.5 points.

I get the case for reaching for a kicker in a crazy bonus league. I don’t play in those formats. I don’t get the case for reaching for a kicker in a guillotine league where that 3rd WR is much more likely to help you survive the week than a K.

And I look forward to claiming Tucker after that team gets eliminated.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Maybe it's part of the zag when others are zigging thinking.
Or..."Don't be a part of a run...start one"
Or...My draft sucks so I'm at least going to get the top rated "players" at these positions.

That occured to me. And it’s terrible logic.
lol

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The kicking game is changing before our eyes. Back in the day, anything over 50 yards was insane. Now, guys like Tucker are booting 60 yarders with regularity. With (often) bonuses for long kicks, these guys are having more of a fantasy impact.

Yeah, but again, the NFFC isn’t a crazy kicker scoring format.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Thankfully I've gotten kickers out of all my leagues. Unfortunately we still have D/ST, and even the standard scoring for this can be pretty wild. I wound up taking one in round 12 of a 17 round draft this weekend primarily because the players left in my queue were all about 15+ picks away so I felt safe my next guys would make it back to me; but also having a top 2-3 defense does seem like a significant advantage over the rest of the pack.

Also, I hate having to play the streaming game. It just adds a lot of time to my weekly waivers looking at matchups and wasting FAAB I could be using to grab a real piece instead to get a mediocre defense who is playing a bottom rung offense and could still only net me 5-6 points. Meanwhile the Cowboys and 49ers are getting 7 sacks, 3 picks with a pick 6, and held the opposing team to 9 so they scored as much as a top 10WR that week. I despise it, but if I'm forced to use them, I want a top unit. If my roster is filling out nicely in a draft, and I've I hit a value gap where it makes sense, I'll grab a top defense knowing they can break a week open for me.

That’s the way.

My 12 team dynasty has no K, no D/ST.

Both my 16 team dynasty leagues are IDP, and unfortunately have K.

My home league is IDP. I’ve tried to get rid of K every year, but people keep voting to have them. Folks really love those random scoring goofy bastards.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But why not take Tucker from the Ravens and not even have to worry about it?

Because chances are that bench depth at RB you could have instead will be much more valuable to your team?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I (probably) wouldn't take a K/D as early as the 8th or 9th, but I have given up on waiting until the last round for those positions. Once I have my starting lineup in place and a couple of solid backups / upside picks through the first 10 rounds or whatever, I find it increasingly hard to justify taking a flier on some RB/WR who a) will probably never see my starting lineup unless something bad happens and b) will probably still be there next round anyway (or at least is in a tier with a dozen other guys I like just as much), as opposed to just getting ahead of the pack and taking the K and/or D I'll enjoy starting.

Sure VBD might say that the dropoff from that 11th round RB to the one available later might be bigger than the drop off in kickers but once you get out of your starting lineup I think that's where the math starts to break down. If I don't get this RB who I have projected to score 6 points a week I might get stuck with a worse RB I have projected for 3 points a week? Don't care. Is that guy going to help my starting lineup as much as plugging in Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker every week? Probably not. If all goes well I'm never going to start either one of those RBs anyway, and if all doesn't go well those guys probably aren't saving me. I'll take the K and D I like and grab all my late-round fliers afterwards.

I’d much rather stack up on lottery ticket “next in line” RB than take a K.

I can see going K or D/ST 3-4 rounds before the end.

But no way I’m touching them before that. I want 3 things out of my K: a foot at the end of his leg, a late BYE, and if at all possible a dome or good weather.

As for D/ST, things change so much year to year - new DCs, drafted players, preseason injuries - as a 49er fan I’m not touching the 49ers D/ST at ADP for a good example. They should still be good, but between injuries last year & in preseason, plus a new DC, I’m skeptical they deliver on 10th or 11th round return.

Meanwhile I love the Bills as the 10th or 11th D/ST off the board. Colts, too. Vikings always go late & they should be very solid. Chicago also goes late.

Hey, each to their own, I just can’t see passing on a Vidal, or any other high upside “next in line” RB for a K or D/ST.

Those “might never see the lineup” RB could also be league-winners. I don’t think I can say the same about taking Justin Tucker in the 9th vs Matt Gay in the 17th.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Our first draft, in 1984, had a kicker taken in the first round. Owner figured that kickers score the most so he should start with a kicker.

This is classic. And I suspect it’s similar to the logic in these drafts I’ve been doing.

“Why take the RB27 when I can have the K1?!”

 

[-OZ-]

But again, I’m not talking about round 13/16 or 17 of 20. I totally understand doing that, getting a slightly better k & d, then sniping late value. 100% valid.

But 8/20? 9/16?

That seems wildly irresponsible to me.

Yeah, that’s entirely too high. But I think the last 4-5 players I draft are basically waiver fodder anyway so if I think I’ll probably drop a player I might choose to take Tucker or another kicker I think probably brings a small advantage over taking a player I’d be more reluctant to cut and a lesser kicker.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I’d much rather stack up on lottery ticket “next in line” RB than take a K.

I can see going K or D/ST 3-4 rounds before the end.

But no way I’m touching them before that. I want 3 things out of my K: a foot at the end of his leg, a late BYE, and if at all possible a dome or good weather.

As for D/ST, things change so much year to year - new DCs, drafted players, preseason injuries - as a 49er fan I’m not touching the 49ers D/ST at ADP for a good example. They should still be good, but between injuries last year & in preseason, plus a new DC, I’m skeptical they deliver on 10th or 11th round return.

Meanwhile I love the Bills as the 10th or 11th D/ST off the board. Colts, too. Vikings always go late & they should be very solid. Chicago also goes late.

Hey, each to their own, I just can’t see passing on a Vidal, or any other high upside “next in line” RB for a K or D/ST.

Those “might never see the lineup” RB could also be league-winners. I don’t think I can say the same about taking Justin Tucker in the 9th vs Matt Gay in the 17th.

It's mostly a matter of personal preference, and as the decades have gone on I've grown to just draft a team that makes me happy as opposed to one that attempts to extract the most value out of every pick.

I'm also a 49ers fan. Will their D deliver on a 10th or 11th round return? Who knows (and who cares - once the draft is over what difference does it make whether you took them in the 11th or the 17th)? Will I be happy starting my favorite team's D every week? Of that I'm certain.

The appeal of those round 11+ RBs is that they could be league-winners, I get it. The reality is that they almost never are. More often it's the guy no one saw coming that is the hot WW pickup after week 1 or 2. Give me the peace of mind of plugging in the league's best kicker and forgetting about the position. Obviously I'm still stocking up on a bunch of those "potential league-winner RBs" late anyway, I'm just taking one fewer than you before the last round or two.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The appeal of those round 11+ RBs is that they could be league-winners, I get it. The reality is that they almost never are. More often it's the guy no one saw coming that is the hot WW pickup after week 1 or 2.

They're only there to pick up if teams are taking D/STs and K's in the 9-11th rounds. lol

And I disagree - Larry Johnson was drafted in all formats the year he was a league-winner. This year I see Vidal as a potential LW-upside type RB, and his ADP is around that 9-11th round. Likewise with Jaylen Wright as well. And Ford, Chubba, Bigsby - those rounds I described in the OP are the hunting grounds for "next man up" RBs.

Of course to each their own - I just can't believe there are so many sharks endorsing taking an early D/ST or K in the year of our lord 2024.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

They're only there to pick up if teams are taking D/STs and K's in the 9-11th rounds. lol

That logic doesn't hold up. They're either getting drafted or they aren't. Doesn't matter in which round.

And I disagree - Larry Johnson was drafted in all formats the year he was a league-winner.

If you have to go back to Larry Johnson as your example, I rest my case.

This year I see Vidal as a potential LW-upside type RB, and his ADP is around that 9-11th round. Likewise with Jaylen Wright as well. And Ford, Chubba, Bigsby - those rounds I described in the OP are the hunting grounds for "next man up" RBs.

Of course. There are always a bunch of guys who seem to have that potential. I draft them too. I'm not drafting three straight kickers in rounds 9-11, I can take Vidal and Bigsby and Justin Tucker if I want. I'm just passing on one of them, not all of them.

 

[ericttspikes]

In my early drafts I usually took one kicker early, mostly Tucker, but not before the 16th round. Never seen a single digit kicker pick in any of the FFPC drafts I've done.

My rationale for taking Tucker early is that he has to have the most secure K job in the NFL outside of injury. Ravens aren't cutting Tucker if he has a bad game. In 28 round best ball drafts I usually take 3 kickers and having at least 1 slam dunk guy not in danger of getting cut is worth it to me. There always seems to be like 10 NFL teams that just have a guy who might be gone by week 6 if they don't produce.

In managed leagues I still consider Tucker early for the same reason. I also like the week 14 bye as I don't really like streaming kickers and wasting waiver capital on that week to week.

Defenses I could care less honestly and take them later. As long as I read the D runs correctly and get at least 2 that I don't think will be terrible, I feel ok. I like a lot of the mid ranked Ds this year to out perform their rankings.

 

[Dreamer]

My local league scores Kickers at 56 yard FG = 5.6 points and is notorious for kicker runs, and only 16 roster spots so when Justin Tucker went at 11.3 I took Brandon Aubrey at 11.5. I feel like the math might make sense but it just feels wrong.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In my early drafts I usually took one kicker early, mostly Tucker, but not before the 16th round. Never seen a single digit kicker pick in any of the FFPC drafts I've done.

My rationale for taking Tucker early is that he has to have the most secure K job in the NFL outside of injury. Ravens aren't cutting Tucker if he has a bad game. In 28 round best ball drafts I usually take 3 kickers and having at least 1 slam dunk guy not in danger of getting cut is worth it to me. There always seems to be like 10 NFL teams that just have a guy who might be gone by week 6 if they don't produce.

In managed leagues I still consider Tucker early for the same reason. I also like the week 14 bye as I don't really like streaming kickers and wasting waiver capital on that week to week.

Defenses I could care less honestly and take them later. As long as I read the D runs correctly and get at least 2 that I don't think will be terrible, I feel ok. I like a lot of the mid ranked Ds this year to out perform their rankings.

16th round is fine. No need to justify that as “early” because that’s not particularly early.

I’m talking about taking a k and/or D/ST before your 3rd WR or Flex is filled.

 

[titusbramble]

Is this not just a case of people not being there for the draft and auto draft algorithms being lol? In our auction draft we all literally pick kickers and defences on account of this for at least the first two rounds to punish people who don't show up

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Is this not just a case of people not being there for the draft and auto draft algorithms being lol? In our auction draft we all literally pick kickers and defences on account of this for at least the first two rounds to punish people who don't show up

In the last 4 drafts I described in the OP these were all live drafters.

 

[titusbramble]

Is this not just a case of people not being there for the draft and auto draft algorithms being lol? In our auction draft we all literally pick kickers and defences on account of this for at least the first two rounds to punish people who don't show up

In the last 4 drafts I described in the OP these were all live drafters.

Ok, let me rephrase the question - is this not just a case of fantasy football still being a reliable source of income?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ok, let me rephrase the question - is this not just a case of fantasy football still being a reliable source of income?

Has it ever been?

ETA: perhaps a reliable indicator of income.

 

[titusbramble]

Ok, let me rephrase the question - is this not just a case of fantasy football still being a reliable source of income?

Has it ever been?

For me, yes

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For me, yes

You’re a better FF player than I, my friend. And good for you, I say.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

My local league scores Kickers at 56 yard FG = 5.6 points and is notorious for kicker runs, and only 16 roster spots so when Justin Tucker went at 11.3 I took Brandon Aubrey at 11.5. I feel like the math might make sense but it just feels wrong.

There are a lot of things in fantasy that seem wrong vs the NFL. Namely any kind of "cheat code" that inflates a certain position or player. But every league has at least one of these and it would be dumb for us to just ignore them when drafting.

 

[bluemanfoo]

Prater has been my final round kicking flier to start the season. He's old but he can still kick those 50+ yarders and ARI offense should be in scoring position much more often. Ideally you want an offense that can move the ball but stalls in scoring position. That fine line is really hard to project.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There are a lot of things in fantasy that seem wrong vs the NFL. Namely any kind of "cheat code" that inflates a certain position or player. But every league has at least one of these and it would be dumb for us to just ignore them when drafting.

This topic is very explicitly not about the crazy 1-offf leagues.

If kickers are getting crazy bonuses, obviously take one early.

In NFFC high stakes leagues? Probably not a great idea.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Prater has been my final round kicking flier to start the season. He's old but he can still kick those 50+ yarders and ARI offense should be in scoring position much more often. Ideally you want an offense that can move the ball but stalls in scoring position. That fine line is really hard to project.

Exactly. Frequent trips to the RZ help, but 5 PAT days aren’t gonna help much.

Even Aubrey had a couple of those last year.