Wheelhouse
Footballguy
What is completely inaccurate?
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Can you imagine Berrian's numbers if the Bears were ever behind? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Wheelhouse
- Start date
That he is targeted less in the 2nd half when they have a lead, unless you count the times that he's on the sidelines and impossible to be targeted.They threw a bomb to the guy while they were stomping on Seattle. They threw a bomb to the guy that was caught in the 3rd this week, while they were up 27-0, but he barely stepped out of bounds.
Wheelhouse
Footballguy
I didn't say that he is targeted less in the 2nd half (even though he is) My point in all this is his receptions and his production goes down as the game goes on, that's what I said. It's obvious that his production decreases in the 3rd and 4th quarter. That is my point. So, what exactly did I say that was inaccurate?DrJ said:
Wheelhouse
Footballguy
why is it that post 12 and post 13, even though posted within minutes from each other are listed at these times...
post 12: 1:08pm
post 13: 1:14am
post 12: 1:08pm
post 13: 1:14am
So you're seriously going to say that there's a significant enough difference between 8 targets for 4 catches, 120 yards, and 1 TD and 8 targets for 4 catches, 80 yards, and 1 TD that any real conclusions can be drawn from it?If Berrian's foot hadn't gone out of bounds and he had 5 catches for 120 and 2 TD's in the 3rd instead, boy would that have shot this whole theory to shreds, wouldn't it?You're making completely inaccurate assessments based on a pretty small sample of data here.
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Wheelhouse
Footballguy
Bump - but this doesn't get bumped?!?why is it that post 12 and post 13, even though posted within minutes from each other are listed at these times...post 12: 1:08pmpost 13: 1:14am
Wheelhouse
Footballguy
No I am not. I don't think there's a big difference there, but there is definitely a difference between the 1st and 2nd half. Don't be so critical. With feedback like this, I'll keep my stat info to myself. My point was to show how his numbers differed by the 1st half and 2nd half. I broke it down further by displaying each quarter. Sure the 3rd quarter and 2nd quarter are pretty close, but there is a definite decline as the game goes on, which was what I was illustrating.
Maybe you can overpay to get him on your team as the shark move would be to sell high on him right now. If the Bears do find themselves behind, I don't see Berrian putting up better numbers as extra dbacks would minimize his impact. Also, it is called the windy city for a reason. Expect those passing numbers to go down as we get into November.JuniorNB said:In my league, and probably most league's, Bernard Berrian is the number one wide receiver.I find that to be truly amazing, considering he plays on a team which has consistantly been up by 20 or more points by halftime.Many receivers get yardage and touchdowns in the second half, as their teams play from behind and against prevent defenses. He never has that luxury. It actually works against him that the Bears defense is so good. He could actually have even more points if they weren't.I am sooooo pissed that I missed the boat on him.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Yes, because the politicians at the turn of the century were known for being full of hot air, not because of the actual wind that blows.
But it is windy up there and it will be a factor later in the season.
5Rings
Lurker
Willie Gault
I'd say Berrian is a sell high.
Code:
1983 chi | 16 | 4 31 7.8 0 | 40 836 20.9 8 || 1984 chi | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 34 587 17.3 6 || 1985 chi | 16 | 5 18 3.6 0 | 33 704 21.3 1 || 1986 chi | 16 | 8 79 9.9 0 | 42 818 19.5 5 || 1987 chi | 12 | 2 16 8.0 0 | 35 705 20.1 7 || 1988 rai | 15 | 1 4 4.0 0 | 16 392 24.5 2 || 1989 rai | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 28 690 24.6 4 || 1990 rai | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 50 985 19.7 3 || 1991 rai | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 20 346 17.3 4 || 1992 rai | 16 | 1 6 6.0 0 | 27 508 18.8 4 || 1993 rai | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 8 64 8.0 0Jayrod
Footballguy
I'm just saying that those numbers aren't accurately showing the real facts. Feel free to keep your stats to yourself if you don't want people analyzing them for what substance they have, or you're going to get your panties in a bunch when someone that watched the actual games speaks about what actually happened in them.They threw bombs to him in the 3rd quarters of each of the last 2 games, and his 3rd quarter stats really aren't all that different from the others. In fact, his 3rd quarter would be right up there with the 2nd quarter if his foot was a couple inches to the right this week.The 4th quarter stats are lower, I agree with that. A good part of that is the fact that the guy hasn't even been on the field in that quarter for about half of the games. Do you really expect that he's going to get catches from the sideline? Isn't it even somewhat of a possibility that it's the fact that he's not even in there that has contributed to those numbers? It's impossible to say that those numbers have a whole lot of use unless you expect the Bears to be up by 30 points every 4th quarter.This team won't hesitate to throw to him in the 2nd half when they are up to 20 or more. They did it against Seattle. The did it against Buffalo. And no matter what stats you post, that is what is actually happening in these games.
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Please post Renaldo Nehamiah's stats to further accentuate your point.
cstu
Footballguy
Beaumont said:Berrian is a speed receiver and part of his game is taking advantage of the D as they press closer to the LOS to stop the run ... if the Bears lost the threat of the run due to being behind I think it helps take Berrian out of the game ...JuniorNB said:In my league, and probably most league's, Bernard Berrian is the number one wide receiver.I find that to be truly amazing, considering he plays on a team which has consistantly been up by 20 or more points by halftime.Many receivers get yardage and touchdowns in the second half, as their teams play from behind and against prevent defenses. He never has that luxury. It actually works against him that the Bears defense is so good. He could actually have even more points if they weren't.I am sooooo pissed that I missed the boat on him.
Thanks for saving me the time of posting.I don't understand why people are concluding that Berrian can't be productive if teams back off the line and play the pass. Is there any evidence supporting that theory? Santana Moss is a "speed" receiver. Can there be any doubt that Moss has his best games when his team is playing from behind?Grossman says he plans to get Berrian more short pass receptions if teams back off the run.
___________________________________________
QB Rex Grossman said Sunday that he'd like to get WR Bernard Berrian more touches going forward.
''Bernard is playing extremely well,'' Grossman said. ''I'd like to see people play off him a little more so we could get the completions racked up, but if they want to keep coming up like that, they're going to keep getting burned.'' Berrian has averaged 21.7 yards on his 19 catches. Oct. 9 - 9:12 am et
Source: Chicago Sun Times
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...6254&spln=1
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5Rings
Lurker
Berrian's ceiling. Willie Gault II.Sell.The Bears have peaked. Sell sell sell.What am I looking at?
bullitt
Footballguy
Berrian's ceiling. Willie Gault II.Sell.The Bears have peaked. Sell sell sell.
5Rings
Lurker
Do you really think the offensive pace will continue?GRossman for 4000 and 35? Berrian for 1300-13?I think now is the time to find the Bears fan in your league and sell.JMO.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I would say he is a solid WR 2 at this point.
bullitt
Footballguy
They are playing the Cardinals next monday, so no, I do not think they have peaked.
paydrt
Footballguy
I actually prefer this comparison, in particular 1999+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1998 chi | 3 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 4 44 11.0 1 || 1999 chi | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 84 1400 16.7 9 || 2000 chi | 11 | 1 9 9.0 0 | 55 738 13.4 5 || 2001 chi | 5 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 23 269 11.7 2 || 2002 chi | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 21 244 11.6 3 || 2003 bal | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 31 451 14.5 6 || 2004 min | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 47 657 14.0 8 || 2005 min | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 31 515 16.6 5 || 2006 min | 4 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 9 123 13.7 2 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 101 | 1 9 9.0 0 | 305 4441 14.6 41 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
MRob isn't a very good comparison - he was a much bigger target and more in the "prototypical WR" mold. Before the injury, he was the whole package and could run by or outmuscle a DB. Here's a better comparison: +--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1993 chi | 16 | 5 44 8.8 0 | 19 231 12.2 2 || 1994 chi | 13 | 6 31 5.2 0 | 39 546 14.0 2 || 1995 chi | 16 | 5 77 15.4 0 | 62 1037 16.7 12 || 1996 chi | 16 | 8 50 6.2 0 | 81 1049 13.0 7 || 1997 chi | 7 | 3 17 5.7 0 | 30 476 15.9 1 || 1998 chi | 15 | 5 48 9.6 0 | 54 733 13.6 3 || 1999 chi | 10 | 1 -2 -2.0 0 | 44 426 9.7 4 || 2000 sdg | 14 | 3 31 10.3 0 | 53 712 13.4 5 || 2001 sdg | 16 | 7 116 16.6 1 | 71 1125 15.8 6 || 2002 sdg | 13 | 7 53 7.6 2 | 57 852 14.9 5 || 2003 nyj | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 46 640 13.9 2 || 2004 sfo | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 38 403 10.6 3 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 167 | 50 465 9.3 3 | 594 8230 13.9 52 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Now that guy was thin, fast, could definitely perform when healthy...but had problems staying healthy. There you have Bernard Berrian. Except, he has a better QB than that guy had...paydrt said:
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TitusIII
Footballguy
Bernarn Berrian may not have Willie Gault's speed, but only a handful of WR's in the history of the NFL have. IMO, he is a future all-pro that has all the tools to be a consistant 1000+ 6+ for the next decade with Grossman throwing him the ball. He was overlooked coming out of college due to the knee injury during his senior year, but he was an absolute stud with Carr throwing him the rock. He will not continue to put up 40+ yard TD's each week, but he will continue to burn 95% of the DB's in the NFL for the forseeable future.
faulkfan
Footballguy
In my keeper league I just dealt Berrian and my 2007 2nd rounder for Chris Chambers and 2007 1st rounder from a team I expect to finish in the bottom 5. I also offered him for Chad Johnson straight up to the owner who is a Bear fan.Look at guys like Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, even Holt as possible guys you might pry away from owners who were expecting more and think Berrian can produce every week. I am personally not convinced that Bernard will keep up this pace.Jayrod said:5Rings said:
broncofan13000
Footballguy
Anyone recently trade away or trade for Berrian? I'm having a tought time gauging his value (i'm looking to aquire)
If you own Berrian, what would it take to give him up?
If you're looking to aquire, what would you be willing to give?
If you own Berrian, what would it take to give him up?
If you're looking to aquire, what would you be willing to give?
broncofan13000
Footballguy
Wow. Maybe i've been underestimating his dynasty value.
Boone22
Footballguy
A few weeks ago I traded Dayne & Gado for Berrian (right after the Gado to Houston trade) in a Dynasty league with mostly sharks from these boards. At the time I got a couple E-mails from people in the league thinking I gave up too much for him. The team I traded with was weak at RB and I was desperate for WR depth. As of right now I think I got the better end of the deal.
In my league, and probably most league's, Bernard Berrian is the number one wide receiver.
I find that to be truly amazing, considering he plays on a team which has consistantly been up by 20 or more points by halftime.
Many receivers get yardage and touchdowns in the second half, as their teams play from behind and against prevent defenses. He never has that luxury. It actually works against him that the Bears defense is so good. He could actually have even more points if they weren't.
I am sooooo pissed that I missed the boat on him.
I find that to be truly amazing, considering he plays on a team which has consistantly been up by 20 or more points by halftime.
Many receivers get yardage and touchdowns in the second half, as their teams play from behind and against prevent defenses. He never has that luxury. It actually works against him that the Bears defense is so good. He could actually have even more points if they weren't.
I am sooooo pissed that I missed the boat on him.
Beaumont
Footballguy
Berrian is a speed receiver and part of his game is taking advantage of the D as they press closer to the LOS to stop the run ... if the Bears lost the threat of the run due to being behind I think it helps take Berrian out of the game ...In my league, and probably most league's, Bernard Berrian is the number one wide receiver.I find that to be truly amazing, considering he plays on a team which has consistantly been up by 20 or more points by halftime.Many receivers get yardage and touchdowns in the second half, as their teams play from behind and against prevent defenses. He never has that luxury. It actually works against him that the Bears defense is so good. He could actually have even more points if they weren't.I am sooooo pissed that I missed the boat on him.
Justloveit
Footballguy
Berrian is the ultimate WR3 for those that picked him up off FA early. He has the potential to put up 90 + 1td each week. If he doesn't get that long reception, you're no worse off than starting some other mediocre guy at WR3.
BoulderBob
Footballguy
He tore up his knee less than a year ago, and one would have to figure the Bears are bringing him along slowly due to emergence of Berrian. If Moose/Berrian goes down, he will begin to see the field more often.
Because of the way Rex plays, I don't think it matters much whether they're up by 20 or down by 20. He's going to be looking downfield whenever he drops back, either way.
If anything, it could hurt Berrian because then teams wouldn't have to worry about the run as much....
ETA: Although, I suppose he wouldn't be on the sidelines with Rex every 4th quarter...
If anything, it could hurt Berrian because then teams wouldn't have to worry about the run as much....
ETA: Although, I suppose he wouldn't be on the sidelines with Rex every 4th quarter...
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Scorehoard
Footballguy
No because if they were playing from behind teams would sit on the pass letting NO ONE get behind them. I also agree with the weather in the weeks to come. That will slow him down and the tables will flip back to Moose
good info here
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Wheelhouse
Footballguy
FWIW, Berrian's numbers by quarter - he's definitely a 1st half guy. His receptions and production decreases as the game goes on. This also confirms Lovie Smith's play calling - that it's more conservative as the game goes on, with a comfortable lead. Many coaches would do the same thing. Berrian's numbers don't quite equal the other elite's numbers simply because there's no reason to go to him when the game is out of reach. That doesn't mean he's not an elite WR. I think he is. If he doesn't get his numbers in the first half, he may not have a strong game. That's a product of the Bears doing so well. Something to take into consideration.
1st Qtr:
8 targets
4 recs
120 yards
1 TD
2nd Qtr:
15 targets
8 recs
188 yards
2 TD
3rd Qtr:
8 targets
4 recs
82 yards
1 TD
4th Qtr:
4 targets
2 recs
23 yards
0 TD
He also has 12 of his 19 recs when the line of scrimmage was in Bears territory and only 1 rec (1 target) in the red zone, which was his TD catch this past week (8 yards).
1st Qtr:
8 targets
4 recs
120 yards
1 TD
2nd Qtr:
15 targets
8 recs
188 yards
2 TD
3rd Qtr:
8 targets
4 recs
82 yards
1 TD
4th Qtr:
4 targets
2 recs
23 yards
0 TD
He also has 12 of his 19 recs when the line of scrimmage was in Bears territory and only 1 rec (1 target) in the red zone, which was his TD catch this past week (8 yards).
The_U
Footballguy
Even better info here.Im in a league w/ some college buddies....just picked him up off the WW last Friday.
Completely inaccurate. His 3rd quarter target are the same as his 1st quarter targets.And he doesn't play the 4th quarter - that's Brian Griese/Justin Gage time. While he has 75 minutes of PT in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, he probably has about 30 in the 4th this season.
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