How old are you? I’m asking not to be insulting, but I think you’re much older than I am, and the real estate industry is in the early stages of a major disruption, and based on any conversation we have on the topic, I don’t think you see it. Companies like Opendoor, Knock, and services like Zillow Instant Offers are already one way I could see the industry changing (those services are in their infancy, but you can see the model or something similar taking shape, click then sell), but that wall of information that agents were able to own just 15 years ago is now readily available to the consumer.
Margins are already being squeezed, broker margins are razor thin and getting worse, those are your first hints. The good news is I think you’re old enough to avoid most of it, but in 20-30 years, I think it’s going to be a much different game.
I understand completely what is going on. You could be right about 20-30 years from now.
And you could also be wrong. There are so many companies trying to disrupt, that none of them might ever take hold. It's not like you can invent something so earth shattering in this industry , that you grab a huge amount of market share like Amazon did. All those things you mentioned are grabbing niche parts of the market, in areas where they can work. RE is too regional for something to take a huge national hold IMO.
Gary Keller is coming out with Instant offers very soon to compete with Zillow. They already have Keller Mortgage. There are so many other companies fighting for all of this, and thus squeezing the margins as you talked about. I left KW after almost 5 years last September.
I was in the Fantasy Sports Industry for a long time. Was on the initial FSTA board back in 1999. Trade shows twice a year. Many big and small companies back then wasted incredible sums of money thinking the fantasy sports would be played on your TV, and that you would be able to change your lineups on the fly. It never, ever took hold. Fantasy sports has always been about the community aspect of your leagues in several ways.
Gary Keller is investing huge sums of money right now on agent apps, KW mortgage, KW instant offers, etc. IMO, with all this competition, it's not going to take hold the way he thinks. He compares it to be like Amazon, Netflicks, Uber, where you can have an app on your phone and touch a button to do anything RE wise.
What he's forgetting are two things.
Amazon, Netflicks, Uber, etc, are things you can't touch. You have to go and touch and feel a home. Just like you do when you a buy a car. You can search all you want on the net for a car, but very few people buy a personal car without driving it first. Back in 2000, you saw similar stories about how the car buying industry would drastically change and that salesmen would be eliminated. Didn't happen because you have to touch and feel the car.
More touch and feel.... I switched to a new brokerage that believes the old model of RE is dying, which it is for sure. Both owners have incredible experience in VR technology and they are applying to RE at a level I've never seen. Not your basic 3D tours. Highly advanced tours of the home that include a second "skyview" tour of the home so that you can see any part of the home outside as well. Sellers are absolutely loving this. It's winning listings almost every time. The owners have got the cost down to agents to $200, for both tours. The same as a good photographer charges for 25 MLS pictures. They do this buy partnering with vendors to absorb a lot of the costs.
They are shooting VR tours of new, model homes for any builder that wants them. For free. The builders are now choosing our company to solely represent their inventory. Just one year old, they now have top share in this with about 15% of the builders. One added every month. They also have a developer that owns 4000 lots just outside of Boise. We are going to develop those in the next 15 years. 4000 homes x $350,000 x 2% commission is $28,000,000 of agent revenue, plus all the revenue from selling the home for anyone that buys those homes.
When we get to 80% of all the builders shot, by the end of this year all those new homes will go into a database and a customer can search new homes the same way they search the MLS or Zillow. Have you been to any builders web site lately? They are all horrible and very hard to search on, and that's just for their homes.
VR head sets are coming down in price and going up in quality. Next Xmas or the one after that, they will be the major Xmas rage for everyone hen they are $100. When almost everyone has one in their home in 5 years, you in NY will be able to see the inside of any home in Boise you like, all while sitting on the couch. This to me, is larger than any of that Zillow instant buy stuff. That's a fad that will die when people run into the complex issues that are often involved in buying a home.
The second thing is the best companies are these days are working from the bottom up, and not the top down. They are able to get the pulse of their customers in real time, and not wait weeks, months or quarters to make decisions. The C21's, ReMax's and the like, are going to die.
Certainly is interesting times in RE.