Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Career VBD leaders using FBG standard scoring and QB12, RB24, WR30 and TE12 as the baselines.
** denotes that the player was active in 2006.
Top 35 Quarterbacks
Top 50 Running Backs
Top 65 Wide Receivers
Top 25 Tight Ends
** denotes that the player was active in 2006.
Top 35 Quarterbacks
Code:
1047 Dan Marino928 **Brett Favre771 Steve Young769 Randall Cunningham753 John Elway712 **Peyton Manning708 Joe Montana662 Warren Moon644 Roger Staubach562 Fran Tarkenton533 Ken Anderson523 Dan Fouts476 **Daunte Culpepper387 Terry Bradshaw386 Jim Everett383 Boomer Esiason351 Rich Gannon348 **Drew Bledsoe334 Jim Kelly323 Bert Jones313 Steve Grogan285 Neil Lomax266 **Kurt Warner265 **Jeff Garcia263 Brian Sipe256 Greg Landry243 Jim Hart236 Joe Theismann235 Ken Stabler225 **Steve McNair224 **Donovan McNabb213 Roman Gabriel213 John Hadl210 Dave Krieg208 **Vinny Testaverde
Code:
1332 Emmitt Smith1268 Walter Payton1235 Barry Sanders1164 Marshall Faulk1013 **LaDainian Tomlinson887 Eric Dickerson884 Marcus Allen856 Thurman Thomas832 Curtis Martin823 Ricky Watters743 **Shaun Alexander705 Tony Dorsett701 O.J. Simpson682 **Edgerrin James675 Priest Holmes648 Chuck Foreman642 **Tiki Barber630 Herschel Walker616 Franco Harris600 Terrell Davis582 Ottis Anderson556 Eddie George549 Roger Craig547 **Ahman Green522 Earl Campbell499 Lydell Mitchell483 William Andrews478 **Corey Dillon464 Neal Anderson463 Wilbert Montgomery461 John Riggins448 Terry Allen434 Jerome Bettis421 **Fred Taylor415 **Clinton Portis407 Billy Sims406 Curt Warner404 Wendell Tyler389 Chuck Muncie388 Larry Brown387 James Brooks380 Ricky Williams365 **Larry Johnson361 Lawrence McCutcheon339 Ron Johnson334 Earnest Byner331 Chris Warren322 Jamal Anderson319 **Stephen Davis311 Rodney Hampton
Code:
1607 Jerry Rice809 **Marvin Harrison759 Steve Largent674 **Randy Moss649 **Terrell Owens624 Cris Carter611 James Lofton535 Tim Brown522 Harold Carmichael515 **Torry Holt496 Sterling Sharpe491 Mark Clayton490 **Isaac Bruce487 Cliff Branch471 Harold Jackson462 Michael Irvin432 Wes Chandler432 Gene Washington425 Gary Clark414 Andre Rison410 Andre Reed402 John Stallworth401 Jimmy Smith398 **Rod Smith394 Herman Moore390 John Gilliam388 Mike Quick376 Charlie Joiner345 Stanley Morgan336 Roy Green334 Wesley Walker332 Henry Ellard327 Mark Duper324 **Chad Johnson318 Anthony Miller317 Art Monk315 Drew Hill312 **Joey Galloway311 **Joe Horn311 John Jefferson307 Fred Biletnikoff301 Mel Gray300 Isaac Curtis296 Sammy White294 Dwight Clark291 Ken Burrough289 Drew Pearson285 Tony Hill278 Irving Fryar277 Gary Garrison276 Antonio Freeman271 Alfred Jenkins269 Cris Collinsworth268 Paul Warfield260 Carl Pickens257 Ernest Givins254 Steve Watson254 **Hines Ward250 Charley Taylor245 Lynn Swann242 Nat Moore233 **Steve Smith223 Rich Caster221 **Eric Moulds217 Bob Chandler
Code:
616 Shannon Sharpe574 **Tony Gonzalez492 Kellen Winslow458 Todd Christensen380 Dave Casper377 Ben Coates373 Keith Jackson371 Ozzie Newsome263 **Antonio Gates262 Wesley Walls255 Mark Bavaro226 Raymond Chester221 Brent Jones221 Riley Odoms211 Steve Jordan205 Bob Tucker200 Eric Green198 Ted Kwalick192 Mickey Shuler183 Jay Novacek175 Paul Coffman172 Rodney Holman167 **Todd Heap160 Jimmie Giles157 Doug Cosbie
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ickerson - 80Sanders - 495Payton - 557Thomas - 152Allen - 199Faulk - 513Foreman - 0For most of the other RBs in the subgroup who had 6 strong seasons at the beginning of their careers, the averages are significantly less than the above. For example, Eddie George had 475 VBD pts in his 1st 6 seasons, but he only had 74, 7 and 0 pts in his next 3 seasons. Shaun Alexander had 743 VBD in his 1st 6 seasons, followed by 0 VBD last season. Ahman Green had 489 VBD in his 1st 6 seasons, followed by seasons of 39, 0 and 18. Fred Taylor had 390 in his 1st 6 seasons, followed by 18, 0 and 14. Dillon had 344 VBD in his 1st 6 seasons, followed by 0, 94, 26 and 13. Edgerrin James had 544 VBD in his 1st 6 seasons, followed by 125 and 13.And then there are the RBs like Terrell Davis and Earl Campbell who posted 600 and 522 VBD, respectively, in their 1st 6 seasons, but who got injured and posted 0 for the rest of their careers.If LT avoids injury for the next 3 seasons, then he's a lock to break Emmitt's career record for VBD. What are the odds that an RB with LT's number of carries and touches avoids injury in his 7th, 8th and 9th seasons? Although LT is exceptional -- again, I'd say less than 50%. JMOSimilar problems occur regularly in player valuation and projections for the next season. It's all too common to place too much emphasis on "last year's performance" and neglect statistical trends and patterns that include the high incidence of injuries and other factors that might lead to lower performance after a monster year. For example, what will be the impact of the change in OCs in SD? Or the statistical trend in substantially lower production in the 7th, 8th and 9th seasons of an RB's career who has been a workhorse in his 1st 6 seasons?
