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Case Study: Starting QBs available on waiver wire during the season (1 Viewer)

Lash

Footballguy
disclaimer: i am a plug-n-play QB advocate, never like to keep alot of QBs rostered, just like that one top 7 guy

I have always wondered the risk involved in larger leagues (14 or 16 or even 12-teamers with large rosters) in using just one roster spot for QBs and grabbing one for a bye week or heaven forbid an injury

With your help in posting and noticing errors, maybe we can do a case study for 2008 and list the starters and see if the strategy is viable without relying on trading for one since other owners may hold you hostage if they know your style

Also, I seem to remember seeing stats on number of QBs who started games in the past years but couldn't find it via search, so if someone knows how to get ahold of this (profootballreference maybe?) it would help

perhaps, we can also discuss this strategy and who your pickups were that allowed you to "get away" with this

edit: please post your thoughts from both a redraft AND a keeper/dyno perspective - i left out that important separation of strategy for the discussion - this is most definitely risky in redraft since injury protection is much more important there

Week One

AFC-East - Brady, Favre, Edwards, Pennington

AFC-West - Rivers, Russell, Cutler, Croyle

AFC-North - Roethlisberger, Anderson, Palmer, Flacco

AFC-South - PManning, VYoung, Garrard, Schaub

NFC-East - Romo, McNabb, Campbell, EManning

NFC-West - Hasselback, O'Sullivan, Warner, Bulger

NFC-North - Rodgers, TJackson, Kitna, Orton

NFC-South - Garcia, Brees, Delhomme, Ryan

Week Two

33) Cassel for Brady

34) Huard for Croyle

35) Collins for VYoung

36) Griese for Garcia

Week Three

37) Frerotte for TJax

38) Thigpen for Huard (for Croyle)

Week Four

38) Green for Bulger

39) Huard for Thigpen (for Huard for Croyle)

40) Fitzpatrick for Palmer

note: yes I know I am counting Huard twice - number of QB options available on waiverwire was the subject not number of different starting QBs on the year - I figure in alot of leagues (including three of mine) Huard was dropped after losing job

Week Five

41) Rosenfels for Schaub

42) Palmer for Fitzpatrick (Palmer likely not dropped unless owner in your redraft league feared the "Tommy John" rumors

Week Six

43) Fitzpatrick for Palmer (for Fitzpatrick for Palmer)

44) Schaub for Rosenfels (for Schaub)

45) Frye for Hasselback

46) Orlovsky for Kitna

47) Garcia for Griese (for Garcia)

Week Seven

48) BJohnson for Romo

49) Wallace for Frye (for Hasselback)

50) Croyle for Huard (for Thigpen for Huard for Croyle)

 
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Number of different starting QBs per year:

Code:
+------+------------------------+| year | number_of_starting_QBs |+------+------------------------+| 1970 |					 47 || 1971 |					 52 || 1972 |					 44 || 1973 |					 48 || 1974 |					 51 || 1975 |					 55 || 1976 |					 52 || 1977 |					 52 || 1978 |					 48 || 1979 |					 47 || 1980 |					 44 || 1981 |					 49 || 1982 |					 39 || 1983 |					 51 || 1984 |					 56 || 1985 |					 53 || 1986 |					 56 || 1987 |					 88 || 1988 |					 58 || 1989 |					 57 || 1990 |					 51 || 1991 |					 52 || 1992 |					 59 || 1993 |					 55 || 1994 |					 54 || 1995 |					 50 || 1996 |					 54 || 1997 |					 58 || 1998 |					 62 || 1999 |					 62 || 2000 |					 55 || 2001 |					 50 || 2002 |					 58 || 2003 |					 58 || 2004 |					 58 || 2005 |					 58 || 2006 |					 50 || 2007 |					 64 |+------+------------------------+
 
maybe i'm not understanding the question, but speaking as a Brady owner in my one league with only one backup, i'm not a fan of this strategy.

sometimes you can get lucky with a waiver pickup, but more likely than not you're going to take a big hit in the case of injury.

 
I play in a 16 team redraft, and, as of today, Griese is the only starting QB on the waiver wire, and he is presumably a temporary starter. I had Young and Collins, and felt compelled to pick up Collins for exactly this reason.

 
16-team contract league. Top QBs on the wire this morning are Kevin Kolb, Matt Moore, and Ingle Martin. :lmao:

 
I think this depends on league size and your point system. If you get 6 pts/TD then no this is bad. Astute owners in your division will try and grab QBs off the wire so you can't get them.

 
examples:

1) in a 14-teamer last offseason and year, i just rostered Romo and turned down dozens of offers for QBs in the 25-32 ranked range ... picked up Derek Anderson week two waivers after Frye was shipped off to Seattle - SUCCESSFUL

(13-1 reg season and a close superbowl loss after starting Romo in warm Carolina over DA in a blizzard when actually DA blizzard stats were enough for me to win SB over the pathetic Romo performance that week)

2) in a 16-teamer last year i tried to roll with just Brees on a pretty salty IDP team, picked up Josh McCown of the Raiders prior to Brees bye week but McCown got hurt in practice week of game and didn't play so got burned here - lost the game pretty badly so don't even know if the zero at QB "cost" me the win but clearly the strategy was a... - FAILURE (edit: the season was not a failure as this is a playoff team, just the one week missing Brees was a failure as i missed out on grabbing the right replacement that week)

3) 2008 again trying Brees again in same league - did add Brunell to roster to handcuff Brees - won big first week and Waiver position was too bad after a playoff year last year and missed on the "new" starters

 
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Not a good idea IMO.

Huard, Orton and Griese are the only options really available. My QB situation is already pretty dicey with Rogers and Bulger being my only QB. I would think that you'd basically be hinging your entire season on your QB staying healthy.

For instance, if you had just Tom Brady and didn't get Cassel on waivers, your season is pretty much over if you have to pickup and start Orton all year.

Why leave yourself in that position? Do you really want to hang everything on one guy's health in order to take a flyer on another WR or RB?

 
Number of different starting QBs per year:

Code:
+------+------------------------+| year | number_of_starting_QBs |+------+------------------------+| 1982 |					 39 || 1987 |					 88 |+------+------------------------+
Kind of ironic that the high and low years were both strike years, but obviously the difference is that in 1982, only 9 games were played, while in 1987 they played 15 games, three of which were with replacement players.
 
if a 10 team league rosters 20-25 QBs you're sunk in case of injury. Larger leagues means you're more sunk. I'm in a start 2QB league and I had 5 QBs... yeah. I'm that guy. I've already traded 2 away.

Supply and Demand. Bear in mind the in PPR leagues many teams have 2 viable RBs Norwood/Turner, White/Johnson, Fargas/McFadden etc. Anyone have 2 QBs?

Patriots have 4 RBs... Maroney.Morris.Faulk.Jordan

You're talking injury...

You would have to average the point scored for back up QBs and see how that # corresponds to replacement RBs and WRs... both in quantity of players turned over and their subsequent performance. I would make the assumption that you see more turnover in RBs than QBs and that the back up/replacement performance, while a downgrade, is at parity if not above the average back-up NFL QB. Add the fact that you'd be lucky to land the key pick-ups so drop out the top performers from each.

I still think you'd be sunk. Draft 2 decent QBs before a #5WR... that's sensible. Take risks with your bench selections.

 
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maybe i'm not understanding the question, but speaking as a Brady owner in my one league with only one backup, i'm not a fan of this strategy.sometimes you can get lucky with a waiver pickup, but more likely than not you're going to take a big hit in the case of injury.
wouldn't the strategy have worked the past six years other than this one though?so an ~86% success rate is not a good enough gamble to try and grab that extra flex player in the 7th round, especially in dyno/keeper leagues?
 
maybe i'm not understanding the question, but speaking as a Brady owner in my one league with only one backup, i'm not a fan of this strategy.

sometimes you can get lucky with a waiver pickup, but more likely than not you're going to take a big hit in the case of injury.
wouldn't the strategy have worked the past six years other than this one though?so an ~86% success rate is not a good enough gamble to try and grab that extra flex player in the 7th round, especially in dyno/keeper leagues?
That's not what you're really asking though. You're then advocating taking several backup RBs and backup WRs without taking a single backup QB. Is a 4th RB or 5th WR really going to be more valuable than a 2nd QB?
 
GroveDiesel said:
Not a good idea IMO.Huard, Orton and Griese are the only options really available. My QB situation is already pretty dicey with Rogers and Bulger being my only QB. I would think that you'd basically be hinging your entire season on your QB staying healthy.For instance, if you had just Tom Brady and didn't get Cassel on waivers, your season is pretty much over if you have to pickup and start Orton all year.Why leave yourself in that position? Do you really want to hang everything on one guy's health in order to take a flyer on another WR or RB?
converesly what if in pre-hype June you grabbed 2008 Chris Johnson/Matt Forte or 2007 draft Marshall/etc in the round that normally you would be picking a second good QB of a QBBCor you picked in 2008 DeSean Jackson/Eddie Royal/Sidney Rice in the round that you would have drafted a "filler" bye-week starter QB in the O'Sullivan/Campbell/VYoung rangeso in a keeper/dyno league you now possibly have a longterm startable asset instead of a bench QB (again barring injury or suckiness of your QB1)
 
ahhh i see where i have made a logistical error in this thread and you guys are right

i didn't make a mention of separating redraft and keeper/dyno

in redraft this IS a very risky strategy and you guys are on the button with your analysis

i am thinking from a longterm standpoint isn't it better to try and "nail" a longterm RB/WR asset in those rounds where you would draft a second QB

i will edit the OP with a separating discussion

 
14 team league, but 13 player roster.

T.Jackson

M.Cassel

C.Pennington

Huard

Bulger

Garcia

Ryan

And some teams are hording 3 QBs on their roster. I only got Romo, but I think I'm okay for a bye pickup.

 
Not a good idea IMO.Huard, Orton and Griese are the only options really available. My QB situation is already pretty dicey with Rogers and Bulger being my only QB. I would think that you'd basically be hinging your entire season on your QB staying healthy.For instance, if you had just Tom Brady and didn't get Cassel on waivers, your season is pretty much over if you have to pickup and start Orton all year.Why leave yourself in that position? Do you really want to hang everything on one guy's health in order to take a flyer on another WR or RB?
converesly what if in pre-hype June you grabbed 2008 Chris Johnson/Matt Forte or 2007 draft Marshall/etc in the round that normally you would be picking a second good QB of a QBBCor you picked in 2008 DeSean Jackson/Eddie Royal/Sidney Rice in the round that you would have drafted a "filler" bye-week starter QB in the O'Sullivan/Campbell/VYoung rangeso in a keeper/dyno league you now possibly have a longterm startable asset instead of a bench QB (again barring injury or suckiness of your QB1)
If you are playing dynasty, I don't think the backup QB's you mention are going anywhere near the young "sleepers" you mention. In fact, most dynasty leagues only draft rookies or rookies plus leftovers.
 
Not a good idea IMO.Huard, Orton and Griese are the only options really available. My QB situation is already pretty dicey with Rogers and Bulger being my only QB. I would think that you'd basically be hinging your entire season on your QB staying healthy.For instance, if you had just Tom Brady and didn't get Cassel on waivers, your season is pretty much over if you have to pickup and start Orton all year.Why leave yourself in that position? Do you really want to hang everything on one guy's health in order to take a flyer on another WR or RB?
converesly what if in pre-hype June you grabbed 2008 Chris Johnson/Matt Forte or 2007 draft Marshall/etc in the round that normally you would be picking a second good QB of a QBBCor you picked in 2008 DeSean Jackson/Eddie Royal/Sidney Rice in the round that you would have drafted a "filler" bye-week starter QB in the O'Sullivan/Campbell/VYoung rangeso in a keeper/dyno league you now possibly have a longterm startable asset instead of a bench QB (again barring injury or suckiness of your QB1)
If you are playing dynasty, I don't think the backup QB's you mention are going anywhere near the young "sleepers" you mention. In fact, most dynasty leagues only draft rookies or rookies plus leftovers.
Just from my experience Campbell and VYoung still went ahead of DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal in a draft this summerI didn't mean to get focused in on these QBs exactly ... just looking at the possibility of drafting one of these types of players inetad of a backup QB in these early-mid to middle rounds
 
example case: 16 team IDP league 45 man rosters

I have only Brees rostered (along with Brunell handcuff) in a 16 teamer

I picked up Thigpen preseason but gave up on him when Herm chose Huard in between week 1 and 2

dropped him for a DE

have tried unsuccessfully in week 1-3 to grab a QB off the wire - this is a good example because my team is decent enough to not get a good waiver position weekly at least for now

did manage to grab TGreen last night although the chances of him making it to Brees bye week are not good

 
Re-draft league/12 team/16 player roster

QBs out there now-

Pennington, Orton, Flacco, Frerotte, and the 3 KC guys.

I only drafted Romo, but did pick up Ryan on waivers this week to cover Romo's bye (Week 10- Saints @ Atlanta).

I know this goes against the grain of the majority posts here, but it's just the way I fly.

In drafting, I like to target as many WRs as I can and completely fortify that position (PPR).

As the season gets underway, I find more than enough time to gauge the season.

1. What lower tier QBs are showing signs of blossoming?

2. Who on my roster is not performing to expectations?

3. What "available" QB has a favorable matchup for Romo's bye week?

Drop #2 for #'s 1 and 3.

Injuries and whatnot can hurt you either way, really, as anybody who drafted backups Bulger, T. Jackson, Young, Garcia, or Croyle can atest (Whoops).

"Drafting" your backup QB gives you no more assurances than risking injury to your lone QB until you find and pick up your backup.

In smaller leagues, somebody will always be available. When bye weeks kick in, those trying to horde QBs are going to have to make some cuts somewhere. There's always going to be a player like Brady Quinn preparing to take the reigns as well.

Bottom line, if you can land a top tier QB such as Romo, I'd rather spend my remaining draft picks where I can find more value with potential starters than a nearly every week backup QB that sits. If Romo were to go down, there's still the option of picking up Brad Johnson as well. I don't sweat it.

Injuries are too unpredictable to worry about them "possibly" happening. You just have to play.

ETA: That draft pick you may have used for a backup QB could have very well been used on somebody like Eddie Royal or DeSean Jackson. Point is, the stronger you can build your roster beyond QB may very well be what saves your season if your frontline QB does go down for any amount of time. A backup QB will only take you so far in any case as it is. Because you drafted one doesn't really increase your chances much if at all.

 
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I'm in a 12 team, 15 player league and only have Cutler on the roster right now. I recently dropped Garrard to pick up Mendenhall.

I'm going to hope Garrard stays out on the WW so I can get him back because I like his week 8 matchup. In the meantime, I'm trying to move some of my 6 RB's for a top WR. :lmao:

 
By only listing the newly starting QB's who are available on the WW, you're ignoring the fact that some starting QB's got injured or demoted to make that happen, and that that has likely impacted other FF owners' lineups. In other words, for every (or almost every) opportunity you get to pick up a WW QB under this sort of a system, you're also facing higher WW demand for QB's from other owners. It may not be a zero sum game, but this certainly isn't going to be a breeze if this is the approach you want to take.

 
You may want to add some sort of a performance value for the guys. Yeah, there are QBs available, but how many of them actually help?

 
By only listing the newly starting QB's who are available on the WW, you're ignoring the fact that some starting QB's got injured or demoted to make that happen, and that that has likely impacted other FF owners' lineups. In other words, for every (or almost every) opportunity you get to pick up a WW QB under this sort of a system, you're also facing higher WW demand for QB's from other owners. It may not be a zero sum game, but this certainly isn't going to be a breeze if this is the approach you want to take.
You may want to add some sort of a performance value for the guys. Yeah, there are QBs available, but how many of them actually help?
thanks for the repliesi personally am not seeking a long-term replacement at QB in my example: if Brees gets hurt I am screwed unless i make a tradei am only posing this study because i am looking at finding a one-week QB so i don't have to carry more than one for the majority of the season - yes it is highly riskyand yes other owners will vulture the WW QBs ... just posting the numbers of "chances" one has of maybe acquiring oneas to the last quote, i am just looking at a one-week replacement to get me something at the QB position so "how much" isn't a concern as long as they don't have one of those 4 interception no-TD days that perhaps would lead to negative score
 
looks like the KC carousel is a ride that kids would love to get on at the fair: it never ends!

 

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